The Ginobili Effect (Hoopsworld)

[duncan228]

I didn't see this anywhere, sorry if it's already posted.

The Ginobili Effect (http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9854)
By: Yannis Koutroupis

The San Antonio Spurs made their desire for Manu Ginobili to rest this summer rather than participate in the Beijing Olympic games well known, largely due to the risk of him getting hurt. Ginobili broke down at the end of last season and was a non-factor for all but one game of the Western Conference Finals, where the Spurs lost in five to the Los Angeles Lakers. Despite all that, Manu's competitiveness and pride for his country wouldn't let him skip out on the Olympics.

Everything was going good until Argentina faced Team USA in the semifinals, when Ginobili aggravated his left ankle injury in the first quarter. While the injury doesn't appear to be severe, the ankle is still going to be a lingering issue for one of the league's most frenetic players throughout the entire season. He does have a month to rehab the ankle, but his style of play makes the probability of reinjuring the ankle high.

Having him settle down isn't an option either. Spurs head coach Greg Popovich has said on numerous occasions that being so unpredictable is what makes Ginobili great. The fact that he could do just about anything next has made Ginobili one of the best guards in the league, but his body is quickly becoming less and less capable of being able to support this type of play.

So rather than trying to change how he plays on the court, the Spurs will likely change how much he's on it in the early going. He'll undoubtedly be at least somewhat limited during training camp, and don't expect to see much of him in the preseason either.

Due the growing concern about him becoming injury prone the Spurs have also wisely decided to hold off on contract extension talks. Ginobili is under contract for the next two years and committing any significant amount of money to Manu right now would be something that the Spurs could really end up regretting.

It's easy to get caught up in how none of this would have happened if Ginobili stayed home, but it's a moot point now with the Olympics over and the Spurs have no choice but to move on. This is something they have to deal with.

Thankfully for the Spurs they may be able to afford to give him some rest early on in the season. Ten of the Spurs first 16 games are against teams that were .500 or below last season. One of those teams is Portland, who will be much better, but the Spurs still have a favorable schedule to start.

When this will become a major pressing issue is when Ginobili misses even the slightest amount of time during the heat of the playoff race. We saw last year how much difference a few games made, and this year should be the same. The Spurs goal was to lighten the load on Ginobili by adding Corey Maggette, but they were not able to afford his services.

For the next two years though the Spurs options are really limited on what they can do with Ginobili. You cannot trade him because he's among the elite game-changers in the league and you aren't going to get back someone of equal value. Another proven perimeter scorer along his side would be ideal for the Spurs, but they don't have much to offer in terms of a trade.

The Spurs are in position to have a significant amount of cap room in 2010 though, where they can either extend Ginobili if he miraculously stays healthy, or go after one of the other big name free agents. Until then the Spurs' success will largely depend on Argentina's best. Considering how good the West is and Ginobili's injury history, the next two years could be extremely frustrating in San Antonio.

There will be stretches where he and the Spurs will look poised to win it all, but their ability to actually do so is contingent on Ginobili being 100% healthy in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Spurs, a clean bill of health for Ginobili after a grueling 82-game regular season seems a bit unrealisitic.

[diego]

i still dont see how the situation is any different from other injury prone wings who are at their best slashing, olympics or not (wade, maggete, richardson, g. wallace, etc).

last season made it abundantly clear that the risk of injury is there for manu, regardless of what he does in the summer.

and last i checked, the spurs do have a perimeter scoring threat alongside manu (tp)

[jason1301]

So sad and so very true. Manu is our best players. Sometimes I wish TP would be more like Manu or Timmy 5 years younger, so we don't need to depend on Manu that much.

[spursfan09]

So sad and so very true. Manu is our best players. Sometimes I wish TP would be more like Manu or Timmy 5 years younger, so we don't need to depend on Manu that much.

For the past 2 years TP has been doing his share of the work more so than Timmy and manu who were preparing for the playoffs during the reg season.

Geez sometimes I don't know think people watch Spur games.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

You cannot trade him because he's among the elite game-changers in the league and you aren't going to get back someone of equal value.



Great quote, and basically a repeat of what many of us have stated.

As I've said, give me a realistic trade scenario that would actually benefit the Spurs before you start saying we should trade Manu.

[century]

For the past 2 years TP has been doing his share of the work more so than Timmy and manu who were preparing for the playoffs during the reg season.

Geez sometimes I don't know think people watch Spur games.

But TP has a nasty habit of choking every now and then during playoffs.

[xtremesteven33]

But TP has a nasty habit of choking every now and then during playoffs.



last time he did that was in 2005

not no more

[lefty]

last time he did that was in 2005

not no more

True, he hasn't chocked since; he even scored a big 3 at the end of game 3 of the 2007 Finals.

But I'm still pissed at him for going 1 on 1 against CP3 and making a lot of bad decisions during the NO series.

[Brutalis]

Take into consideration the 2007-08 Western Conference playoff race was more heated than any conference in the history of this league.

It was hard for Pop to rest anyone not just Manu and keep a stride and a spot for us going in. We could have easily been 8th seed or dropped out of the race in the end if we had rested guys.

Suspect that this year will not be the same. Pop should have more chances to rest Manu and the other big 3.

[hater]

this yannis writer guy reads too much spurstalk. not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Allanon]

Tim and TP will do their jobs. But, unless Roger Mason & Ime become MIP candidates or Finley finds the fountain of youth, I fear that Manu's going to force himself to play hurt just to keep the Spurs in the Playoff hunt.

[Manufan909]

Take into consideration the 2007-08 Western Conference playoff race was more heated than any conference in the history of this league.

It was hard for Pop to rest anyone not just Manu and keep a stride and a spot for us going in. We could have easily been 8th seed or dropped out of the race in the end if we had rested guys.

Suspect that this year will not be the same. Pop should have more chances to rest Manu and the other big 3.

Why not? Do you think Ime and Mason can step up, or what?

[jason1301]

For the past 2 years TP has been doing his share of the work more so than Timmy and manu who were preparing for the playoffs during the reg season.

Geez sometimes I don't know think people watch Spur games.

so superstar since you watch --and understand-- spurs games, when was the last time that either of the two you mention took over a game?

Duncan is my all time favourite player but he has lost a step, and TP is AWESOME and both do very very well their jobs night in and night out. Its that Manu is our X-factor and when he is on fire we win. You can't say that for TP or Duncan, not in the last two years.

[jason1301]

Tim and TP will do their jobs. But, unless Roger Mason & Ime become MIP candidates or Finley finds the fountain of youth, I fear that Manu's going to force himself to play hurt just to keep the Spurs in the Playoff hunt.

agreed

but i do think Finley will play a little better for us this year.

[Brox6]

^^Hope Pop will still keep Manu / TD / TP fresh for Playoffs than over playing them in regular season.

Fin seems okay last Playoffs hope he can do the same this regular season especially with Manu condition.

[Sean Cagney]

^^Hope Pop will still keep Manu / TD / TP fresh for Playoffs than over playing them in regular season.

Fin seems okay last Playoffs hope he can do the same this regular season especially with Manu condition.

Yes but this is a new race with many teams, if they rest them will they make it? I hope to GOD so and at a good seed. Health is the key no matter what seed you get, but you have to have position first, that I am worried about. One and 8 was not that far last year, we almost slipped out at one point or were near the end even with a good record, so thats key to get in there first! The West is a whole different demon right now, very hard to get in even ask GS last year.

[bigdog]

agreed

but i do think Finley will play a little better for us this year.

Finley averaged 10 PPG for us last season. I don't see why people put the guy down so much. (I'm not saying you put him down, but he really doesn't need to improve now that we have Mason and a hopefully improving Udoka)


Sure, he's NOWHERE near the athlete or player he used to be, but at his age, I couldn't ask for more than what he's provided for us. I see him possibly as a 4th or 5th swingman this year, and if a 4th or 5th can get us 10 PPG, I'm completely fine with that.

[Magic_Johnson]

so superstar since you watch --and understand-- spurs games, when was the last time that either of the two you mention took over a game?

TP: game 7 vs NO, game 3 vs phoenix
Duncan : game 1 vs Phoenix

and many other game.

homer alert!!

[Magic_Johnson]

Finley averaged 10 PPG for us last season. I don't see why people put the guy down so much. (I'm not saying you put him down, but he really doesn't need to improve now that we have Mason and a hopefully improving Udoka)


Sure, he's NOWHERE near the athlete or player he used to be, but at his age, I couldn't ask for more than what he's provided for us. I see him possibly as a 4th or 5th swingman this year, and if a 4th or 5th can get us 10 PPG, I'm completely fine with that.

+1
and he still can make some clutch shoot in the playoff (game 1 vs suns).

[Allanon]

Finley averaged 10 PPG for us last season. I don't see why people put the guy down so much. (I'm not saying you put him down, but he really doesn't need to improve now that we have Mason and a hopefully improving Udoka)


Sure, he's NOWHERE near the athlete or player he used to be, but at his age, I couldn't ask for more than what he's provided for us. I see him possibly as a 4th or 5th swingman this year, and if a 4th or 5th can get us 10 PPG, I'm completely fine with that.

I don't think he's putting down Finley so much as saying the Spurs need more production. Finley did disappear in the Playoffs though.

Duncan is on the back end of his career. TP scoring more probably isn't a good thing. Manu's hobbled. Bowen's 1 year older. Oberto's never been a scorer.

If the Spurs want to win, they'll have to get even more scoring from either 35 year old Finley or the Bench...namely Ime and Roger Mason.

Roger Mason seems the best bet, last year was his best year. He is a bit of a risky proposition which can either pay huge dividends or be a bust.

[SpurOutofTownFan]

For the past 2 years TP has been doing his share of the work more so than Timmy and manu who were preparing for the playoffs during the reg season.

Geez sometimes I don't know think people watch Spur games.

TP chokes sometimes in the playoffs (good thing he didn't really choked so much last playoff season). But the point here is that Manu actually carried the team most of the season with both tony and tim being out for long periods of time. it was clear that schedule would diminish his health coming playoff time + a horrible playoff schedule.

[SenorSpur]

Methinks that as long as Manu is hobbled, the Spurs will again struggle with the same scoring droughts that plagued them last year.

[DDS4]

Shut him down til Christmas.

[Pero]

Duncan : game 1 vs Phoenix


Who set him up? I forget.

[duncan228]

Who set him up? I forget.

5PDdb48g4_c

[Pero]

Well you know, I didn't really forget. :lol

[Pero]

But great to see that play again. It was great watching that game.

[duncan228]

Well you know, I didn't really forget. :lol


But great to see that play again. It was great watching that game.

I know you didn't forget, no Spurs fan will ever forget. I'll take any excuse to watch it again! :)

[Pero]

I know you didn't forget, no Spurs fan will ever forget. I'll take any excuse to watch it again! :)

:toast

[Los Spurs]

5PDdb48g4_c

Can't wait for the new season too start :flag:

[Chucho]

I love Manu as much as the next person, but alot of people around here are seriously over stating his importance. He is not the main reason for the Spur's success as many seem to think. He is part of the "Big 3" and a very vital part of what the Spurs do, nothing more, nothing less. I certainly wouldn't call him one of the leagues "few elite game changers" he doesn't do what Kobe, LeBron or Chris Paul do. He doesn't put the Spurs on his back and bring them back by himself, that is not the Spurs' style, nor would Popovich allow it. He's gotten ths Spurs through some tough games with clutch shots with an insane style, but the same can be said for Timmy and TP, who ya know, have Finals MVPs. It's not 2005 anymore, Tony has closed the gap and I think he is more vital to the Spurs than Manu. He gets more whistles when he goes to the rack, plays more minutes, isn't 1/10th as injure prone and wins a higher percentage of games when Manu is injured as compared to Manu playing when Tony is out. And when Tim is gone the Spurs lose the most often. So to say Manu is the most important piece of the Spurs puzzle is a flat out lie. Not to mention for everything clutch and sick and rewarding Manu has done, there are two instances of him taking a bad shot, making a bad pass, going to the rack in vain attempts to get whistles that are not going his way to begin with and other things that make Spurs fans pull their hair out, but that's just the other side of the sword known as his style.

I'm not trying to rag on Manu, but the people here thinking he should be untouchable in regards to trading him are holding on to him as if he is THE reason the Spurs have the banners they have, that trading him would be the end-all-be all of the Spurs. And that's untrue. The only person that could even reasonably argued for is Tim Duncan. And Manu ain't Tim, not by a longshot. Manu is becoming the Spur's Danny Manning.

[urunobili]

I love Manu as much as the next person, but alot of people around here are seriously over stating his importance. He is not the main reason for the Spur's success as many seem to think. He is part of the "Big 3" and a very vital part of what the Spurs do, nothing more, nothing less. I certainly wouldn't call him one of the leagues "few elite game changers" he doesn't do what Kobe, LeBron or Chris Paul do. He doesn't put the Spurs on his back and bring them back by himself, that is not the Spurs' style, nor would Popovich allow it. He's gotten ths Spurs through some tough games with clutch shots with an insane style, but the same can be said for Timmy and TP, who ya know, have Finals MVPs. It's not 2005 anymore, Tony has closed the gap and I think he is more vital to the Spurs than Manu. He gets more whistles when he goes to the rack, plays more minutes, isn't 1/10th as injure prone and wins a higher percentage of games when Manu is injured as compared to Manu playing when Tony is out. And when Tim is gone the Spurs lose the most often. So to say Manu is the most important piece of the Spurs puzzle is a flat out lie. Not to mention for everything clutch and sick and rewarding Manu has done, there are two instances of him taking a bad shot, making a bad pass, going to the rack in vain attempts to get whistles that are not going his way to begin with and other things that make Spurs fans pull their hair out, but that's just the other side of the sword known as his style.

I'm not trying to rag on Manu, but the people here thinking he should be untouchable in regards to trading him are holding on to him as if he is THE reason the Spurs have the banners they have, that trading him would be the end-all-be all of the Spurs. And that's untrue. The only person that could even reasonably argued for is Tim Duncan. And Manu ain't Tim, not by a longshot. Manu is becoming the Spur's Danny Manning.
you should change your nickname to TP>Manu :lmao

[Pero]

Timmy and TP, who ya know, have Finals MVPs.

:lmao



It's not 2005 anymore, Tony has closed the gap and I think he is more vital to the Spurs than Manu.

Oh so that's why the Spurs won the championship this year.



Not to mention for everything clutch and sick and rewarding Manu has done, there are two instances of him taking a bad shot, making a bad pass, going to the rack in vain attempts to get whistles that are not going his way to begin with and other things that make Spurs fans pull their hair out, but that's just the other side of the sword known as his style.


Yeah, and Tony never heard of the word disappear.