Charley Rosen: Spurs are in a tough spot with Ginobili

[Brutalis]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8508600/Q&A:-Spurs-are-in-tough-spot-with-Ginobili

Q&A: Spurs are in tough spot with Ginobili
by Charley Rosen
Charley Rosen is FOXSports.com's NBA analyst and author of 14 books about hoops, the current one being No Blood, No Foul.

Updated: August 31, 2008, 1:26 PM EST 2 comments
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Should the Spurs try to make a major trade? Being that Bruce Bowen is up there in age and obviously Tim Duncan isn't getting younger, it seems to me that TD needs to be surrounded with some younger players. I would try to move Manu Ginobili before he gets hurt again. Wouldn't packaging Ginobili with Bowen bring the Spurs a good return? — Kris, San Antonio

It's true that the Spurs are an aging ball club. Their list of overly-seasoned veterans include Bowen (37), Michael Finley (35), Kurt Thomas (36), Fabricio Oberto (33), Jacque Vaughn (33) and TD is 32! The plan is to replace Bowen with Ime Udoka, who's still at least a year away from being a consistent defender, but given his advanced years, it's hard to imagine any other team wanting to deal for BB.

Also, given that Duncan and Tony Parker are untouchable, there's no one else on their roster who could command a quality player in return.

It's also true that the full-speed-ahead style of the 31-year-old Ginobili often leads to stints on the injured list — during his NBA career he's missed an average of nearly 11 games per season. Even so, he remains the primary motor of the Spurs offense — simply because he can go get the ball while the ball has to come to Duncan. Make no mistake about Ginobili's skill level — he's a bona fide super star. So, then, for whom could Ginobili be traded? Who could possibly duplicate what he does for San Antonio?

Obviously, guys like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant are out of the question. So is Paul Pierce, who's rapidly approaching the 32nd anniversary of his birth. Perhaps someone like Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, Carmelo Anthony and Vince Carter could be had — but none of these guys fit Pop's unselfish game plan.

Would the Kings be willing to deal Kevin Martin (25)? Would Pop want anything to do with Tracy McGrady (29)?

Probably not.

Nor would the likes of Luol Deng (23), Gerald Wallace (26), or Rip Hamilton (30) be considered without additional inducements.

Indeed, the only semi-available player I'd trade Ginobili for would be Joe Johnson (27). Failing this, the Spurs would be advised to stand pat, hope that their elder statesmen can squeeze out another quality season, that Ginobili's rehab will be successful and that Roger Mason is a big surprise.

Moreover, having most recently won championships in 2003, 2005 and 2007, hopefully the Spurs should be the odds-on favorites to win again in 2009.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

Yes another thread. ST is slow and probably will be for September.

I wouldn't be totally against Manu for JJ type deal. I may be bias with JJ being a former Arkansas Razorback but still. He is not injury prone and can score the ball.

[Ronaldo McDonald]

No way. Despite Manu's injury, he still in the latter part of his prime. He still has another good 3 seasons of playing like he did last year left in him.

[wijayas]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8508600/Q&A:-Spurs-are-in-tough-spot-with-Ginobili

Indeed, the only semi-available player I'd trade Ginobili for would be Joe Johnson (27). Failing this, the Spurs would be advised to stand pat, hope that their elder statesmen can squeeze out another quality season, that Ginobili's rehab will be successful and that Roger Mason is a big surprise.

I don't think Joe Johnson "me-first" attitude will fit in the Spurs "team-first" creed. And it will be a disgrace to the Spurs organization if Manu is traded to the lowly Hawks. Standing pat is probably the bext course of action for now.

[benefactor]

Manu for JJ...interesting. I think I would do it too. You would get just as much production wise and he is only 27. The salaries don't match up though, so you might have to add a few pieces or get a third team involved.

[v2freak]

I would think about that too. Joe Johnson is pretty good

[Big P]

Manu is not getting traded...this shit is so retarded.

[rj215]

Joe Johnson is so 'team-first' that he forced a trade out of Phoenix so he could be the man on a crappy Hawks team.

[baseline bum]

Neither side would do Manu for JJ.

[Roxsfan]

Manu is not going anywhere.

to the op, nice sig:wow

[CubanMustGo]

Yet another column where Charley Rosen proves he doesn't know jack shit about the NBA or the Spurs. Fail.

[Whisky Dog]

talent and age wise would be a great trade for the Spurs. Not so good for the Hawks, who don't want an old Manu even though he put up 26 straight on them...

[diego]

what, no other max contract players to replace manu with?


i know it has a lot to do with what teams they play for, but its not like JJ hasnt ever had injuries. JJ's high MPG makes him seem a lot more durable, but:

young joe johnson plays 80.8 games a year in his NBA career

injury prone manu plays 90.1 games a year in his NBA career

JJ still plays more minutes a season, but the difference isnt as big as you might think.

the only thing that JJ does clearly better than manu, is take care of the ball and play more minutes. shooting %, scoring rate, assist rate, blocks boards and steals are all in favor of manu.

and while manu is most known for winning everywhere he went, JJ is most known for leaving a contender for a max contract. but i'm sure someone here will tell me that manu is the selfish one, not JJ...

[ducks]

what, no other max contract players to replace manu with?


i know it has a lot to do with what teams they play for, but its not like JJ hasnt ever had injuries. JJ's high MPG makes him seem a lot more durable, but:

young joe johnson plays 80.8 games a year in his NBA career

injury prone manu plays 90.1 games a year in his NBA career

JJ still plays more minutes a season, but the difference isnt as big as you might think.

the only thing that JJ does clearly better than manu, is take care of the ball and play more minutes. shooting %, scoring rate, assist rate, blocks boards and steals are all in favor of manu.

and while manu is most known for winning everywhere he went, JJ is most known for leaving a contender for a max contract. but i'm sure someone here will tell me that manu is the selfish one, not JJ...
leaving the suns with that head coach was smart

jj was treated unfairly in sun land

manu has done what asked to for spurs except this year with the games

it is not jj fault that shawn marion was always shut down by bruce bowen when he was with the suns and could not beat the spurs


not sure I would trade jj for manu though

[K-State Spur]

ughh. the plays that manu couldn't make because of his ankle are the plays that Johnson can't make on any night.

[Tully365]

Manu had the greatest year of his career last season. He's gotten better the last few years, not worse. Who knows if he has even peaked yet? I think people are seriously over-reacting. He needs surgery... it's no big deal. D Wade, Kobe, Duncan, Brand... Magic, Bird, MJ.... all have had surgery. Corey Maggette-- that same guy that everyone on spurstalk was dying to get-- has had multiple surgeries, and is far more injury prone than Manu. If anything, Manu's ankle could be stronger than ever. Professional athletes get surgeries.... I don't see anything to get too excited about.

[mytespurs]

At this point, I wouldn't trade Manu for any of those guys mentioned, even Joe Johnson. I'm a biased observer being an manu-maniac :D but besideshis talent, drive and will to succeed, he has that "something" that would be hard to replace.
Now I realize there will come a time when Manu is no longer be a Spur (hopefully by his own choice aka retirement or playing in Europe) but again, that time has not arrived.

[Solid D]

I actually am glad Manu is getting this surgery. This ankle has been a problem since before he came into the NBA. This will be good for him.

Getting the ankle surgery is probably the best plan, no doubt.

The current problem with the left ankle is not related to the right ankle injury Manu suffered in 2002 in the World Championships in Indy, prior to Manu coming into the NBA.

[manufor3]

Manu had the greatest year of his career last season. He's gotten better the last few years, not worse. Who knows if he has even peaked yet? I think people are seriously over-reacting. He needs surgery... it's no big deal. D Wade, Kobe, Duncan, Brand... Magic, Bird, MJ.... all have had surgery. Corey Maggette-- that same guy that everyone on spurstalk was dying to get-- has had multiple surgeries, and is far more injury prone than Manu. If anything, Manu's ankle could be stronger than ever. Professional athletes get surgeries.... I don't see anything to get too excited about.

:tu

[DPG21920]

This trade scenario has already been brought up in the trade Manu thread, which is kind of funny because me and the person who brought it up said that sounds about right. Not that I am advocating trading Manu, just that JJ is the best we could hope for. I also posted this article earlier.

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=103945

[Brox6]

Nice...Stand Pat...:nope Spurs will be the last team in NBA Manu's playing :ihit

[mountainballer]

This trade scenario has already been brought up in the trade Manu thread, which is kind of funny because me and the person who brought it up said that sounds about right. Not that I am advocating trading Manu, just that JJ is the best we could hope for. I also posted this article earlier.

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=103945

agree.
I also think this "trade" is a quite reasonable idea by Rosen.
this doesn't mean Spurs should trade Manu for him. of course not.
it's just a nice example where to rank Manu. Rosen is pretty at the point with JJ. as usual.
I don't know why people constantly get mad when someone from outside of the radical homer community dare to drop an objective opinion.
btw. in general Rosen is extremely friendly about the Spurs. what should he do?
claim that Manu should only be traded for Wade if the Heat add Beasley and so look like an idiot?

[JPB]

Manu will finish his NBA career in SA.

(with one last kiss from Pop for who he is and what he did for the spurs).

[m33p0]

enough!
/thread

[raspsa]

What's done is done and I may as well take the view that the surgery will benefit Manu and the Spurs in the long run, specially in the playoffs when hopefully he will be back to his old self.

In the meanwhile, his absence will give the new acquisitions adequate playing time to gel with the veterans and learn the Spurs system. I don;t think trading Manu is a realistic possibility.. he still has a lot of upside and I think he will end his career in SA.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Failing this, the Spurs would be advised to stand pat, hope that their elder statesmen can squeeze out another quality season (1), that Ginobili's rehab will be successful (2) and that Roger Mason is a big surprise(3).

1. TD quality season - check (I think he'll be very solid until 35 or 36 due to his smart, ground-bound game);
2. Doctors are pretty good these days, and Pop won't rush him back, which will...
3. ...open up time for Mason to shine, and I think he will! Guy can flat out score and is active all over the court.

If only we'd signed someone better to take over Finley's role, I'd be over the moon. He is the weakest link. Hell, Mo Evans would've done, or a young up and comer. Anyway...

[mrspurs]

talent and age wise would be a great trade for the Spurs. Not so good for the Hawks, who don't want an old Manu even though he put up 26 straight on them...

So far your words are the only realistic ones. It would be the Hawks that would get screwed in this deal. And for those who think Manu still has another 3 yrs left in him :lol, think again. Wake up and realize Manu was thinking of Manu when he decided to keep playing basketball with an injured ankle. He wasnt thinking of his NBA teammates, he wasnt thinking of the Spurs Fans, and he surely wasnt thinking about Pop's advice. Manu is just like Joe, its about Manu and no one else. So go ahead and pull out your highschool Pom Poms and cheer Manu on. I am Spurs first, if it takes a trade to make the Spurs better, then whats the delay? :wow

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

I wouldn't advocate trading Manu, but if he were to be traded, getting back Joe Johnson would be pretty awesome. :tu

[Solid D]

And for those who think Manu still has another 3 yrs left in him :lol, think again.

Without qualification, that is a very bold and careless statement. We don't really know how the corrective action and healing process will leave Manu. Your statement is wildly pessimistic. Dan Majerle comes to mind.

No team would want to trade their star player for a player going into a surgery, or just healing from surgery. They would want to see what the success of the surgery is first. If the surgery is successful, most people in here that are currently thinking trade would then be saying "no way we trade Manu".

Manu is one of the truly great and entertaining players to ever play in the NBA. I'm pulling for him to recover. For me, he's one of the special talents that makes the NBA fun to watch after all these years of watching basketball.

[ducks]

ughh. the plays that manu couldn't make because of his ankle are the plays that Johnson can't make on any night.

manu can not make any plays when he is hurt and not hardly on back to back nights and not if he has to play mor ethen 30 minutes a night

not saying I would pull the trigger though

[mrspurs]

Without qualification, that is a very bold and careless statement. We don't really know how the corrective action and healing process will leave Manu. Your statement is wildly pessimistic. Dan Majerle comes to mind.

No team would want to trade their star player for a player going into a surgery, or just healing from surgery. They would want to see what the success of the surgery is first. If the surgery is successful, most people in here that are currently thinking trade would then be saying "no way we trade Manu".

Manu is one of the truly great and entertaining players to ever play in the NBA. I'm pulling for him to recover. For me, he's one of the special talents that makes the NBA fun to watch after all these years of watching basketball.

He'll be in his mid 30's in 3 yrs. That alone puts him closer to bench with the Fins. Or perhaps you've not seen Manu's physical decline these past 2 seasons. Perhaps you havnt seen Timmy's decline as well. And by the way, even Bruce got one step slower last season. And Bruce is by far the only player with age the spurs have, who never misses a game. And still their best defender night in and night out. Why does Bruce last so long is simple, because Bruce doesnt play like guys named Manu, Kobe, Dwade etc. And what does a truly great and entertaining player do when he cant play? Nothing. As for Manu of course Ill be pulling for him to recover, Id do that for anyone in harms way. But to pass on a player who can keep this franchise competitive(via a trade) because of what a player has done(the past) and not what he can do in 3 years, is not how our FO thinks. And its not smart business. Like Ive said, best case scenario, is we bite the bullet this season in order to grab a high draft pick next season, to take either Manu or Tim's place. We did it before and got 4 rings. Its that simple. When Drob left, he left it to Timmy. That isnt pessimistic, its a fact.

[tav1]

The Spurs are in a tough spot right now. They're definitely good enough to finish somewhere between 3 and 6 in the West, and that's assuming Ginobili is out until January. But they also appear one or two rotation guys short of championship team. They might be able to pull a rabbit out of hat with a worthwhile Bonner trade, but that's highly unlikely. The boon or bust trade Parker or trade Ginobili suggestions are tiresome and slightly blasphemous, but those two are legit assets.

I have a friend in Portland who keeps telling me that the Spurs should swap Parker for something like Bayless, Outlaw, and Webster. It's not a terrible idea, but I look at that and I think the Spurs might not be any better 1 year after such trade while Portland will definitely be better. You can't imagine the Spurs will get much better offers than that.

If there is a creative trade to be done that will benefit the Spurs, they should pull the trigger. But Ginobili for Johnson is not it. And I'm not convinced there is another one out there.

[Pero]

So far your words are the only realistic ones. It would be the Hawks that would get screwed in this deal. And for those who think Manu still has another 3 yrs left in him :lol, think again. Wake up and realize Manu was thinking of Manu when he decided to keep playing basketball with an injured ankle. He wasnt thinking of his NBA teammates, he wasnt thinking of the Spurs Fans, and he surely wasnt thinking about Pop's advice. Manu is just like Joe, its about Manu and no one else. So go ahead and pull out your highschool Pom Poms and cheer Manu on. I am Spurs first, if it takes a trade to make the Spurs better, then whats the delay? :wow

Uh, Manu was thinking about his country.

[E20]

LOL Manu has been on the front cover of Yahoo Sports for 3 days now, no one from Team USA or nothing lOL.

[Brutalis]

Manu is not getting traded...this shit is so retarded.

No shit Captain Obvious.

It's called speculation and fan opinion. Learn it, use it, be happier in life.

[Solid D]

But to pass on a player who can keep this franchise competitive(via a trade) because of what a player has done(the past) and not what he can do in 3 years, is not how our FO thinks.

Actually, the Spurs have tended to ride out the wave with what has been working and only add components of role players to the core. You must be projecting your wishes onto the Spurs' FO.

[saxman]

I don't care what anyone says...I wouldn't trade Manu for any other SG except Kobe Bryant. Manu should be a Spur 4 life.

[weebo]

Some people in here are both crazy and stupid! Trading Manu for Joe freakn Johnson!!!

[gilmor]

Some people in here are both crazy and stupid! Trading Manu for Joe freakn Johnson!!!

Joe Johnson can pick Manu's shoes after practice..

That is a distinction between being great and being good but sadly alot of people in this forum missed the point..

But then again, an unhealthy Manu will guarantee that Spurs will prob not win the championship next season..

[melanie5]

The winners of any playoff game always give the impression that they are, indeed, unbeatable. Just as the losers look like they have no chance of ever winning.
----------------
melanie
viral, viral marketing (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/viral,%20viral%20marketing)

[Allanon]

Best case scenario: Tony Parker, Duncan, Bowen + 1 of the guys hold the fort until Manu returns in January. Spurs get Manu back and are ready to roll.

Worst case scenario: TP, Duncan and Bowen carry the team. Mason is a bust and none of the other guys step up. January comes and Manu is ready but the other 3 are pretty tired from carrying the load and come Playoffs, Manu is strong but the other 3 limping at the end of the season and miss the playoffs.

It sounds like you all are hoping for the best case scenario which is understandable and probably the same thing I would do. On the other hand, are you willing to accept the worst case scenario of 1 year of sucking to keep Manu. You'd be much better next year and maybe get a high lotto pick and a rested (no playoff) team.

[PDXSpursFan]

WTF Joe Johnson?? No f****g way. Next please.

[LakerLanny]

I don't understand all the panic.

Bottom line is your team lost one game to the Lakers (Western Conference Champs, supremely skilled and talented) when you led by 20 and were primed to take the HCA.

If you win that game (and yes, that could have happened, I admit) that series could have gone in your team's favor.

That was with The Beak on one leg.

With a healthy Beak, I don't think it is a reach to say that your team is right behind the Lakers or even with the Lakers as having the best chance to represent the West in the Finals.

The worst thing you could do is make a panic trade, luckily your front office is smarter than most of the nervous nellies posting here so I doubt that will happen.

A San Antonio team with a healthy Beak, Duncan and Parker is dangerous. Very very dangerous. In fact, I would just assume play ANY other team in the playoffs and that includes the Rockets, Jazz or Bugs.

[Manufan909]

Best case scenario: Tony Parker, Duncan, Bowen + 1 of the guys hold the fort until Manu returns in January. Spurs get Manu back and are ready to roll.

Worst case scenario: TP, Duncan and Bowen carry the team. Mason is a bust and none of the other guys step up. January comes and Manu is ready but the other 3 are pretty tired from carrying the load and come Playoffs, Manu is strong but the other 3 limping at the end of the season and miss the playoffs.

It sounds like you all are hoping for the best case scenario which is understandable and probably the same thing I would do. On the other hand, are you willing to accept the worst case scenario of 1 year of sucking to keep Manu. You'd be much better next year and maybe get a high lotto pick and a rested (no playoff) team.

And if we slide in a #8, I feel bad for the #1 seed, cuz they'll be facing a fresh Manu that has just gotten back into form. Someone has to step up, it's statistically improbable that NOONE will partly fill Manu's shoes. Mason looks to have a good chance, and KT and Udoka have had time to adopt the system, so they'll work out. The real question marks are Ian, Hill, Tolliver. I'm not saying they all make it, but they should at least provide energy and athleticism, something the Spurs seriously lacked outside of Manu and Tony. Speaking of TP, I think he can go up a level this year.
I'm just hoping that Masin can step up like he did when Arenas was out, and that both Ian and Hill/Tolliver/Bonner put out 5-12 pts a game and prove new talent can eclipse the seasoned veterans they're replacing. At the very least others will have seroius time to gel with Manu out.