Ike

[RashoFan]

I would like to introduce TS IKE. He may be stopping in the GOM in a week from now...
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_sat.jpg
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

[Trainwreck2100]

He'll be a pansy like his cousin Gustav

[nsrammstein]

He'll be a pansy like his cousin Gustav

So you were hoping for mass death and destructioin?

[Trainwreck2100]

So you were hoping for mass death and destructioin?

No, but Gustav was a wuss hurricane. All hype.

[nsrammstein]

No, but Gustav was a wuss hurricane. All hype.

So would you have been happy if it would have turned into the strongest hurricane in modern recorded meteorologic history and struck New Orleans?

[Trainwreck2100]

So would you have been happy if it would have turned into the strongest hurricane in modern recorded meteorologic history and struck New Orleans?

That would have been awesome, but i wouldn't have been happy.

[Cry Havoc]

No, but Gustav was a wuss hurricane. All hype.

Tell that to Cuba. No really, be a little more insensitive. "Well, the cat 4 didn't hit the U.S., so who cares about those other people that had to deal with it?"

[dirk4mvp]

maybe i don't know how all this hurricane stuff works or keep up with it, but where was H?

[Cry Havoc]

maybe i don't know how all this hurricane stuff works or keep up with it, but where was H?

Do you even look at the other threads?

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

The models have him either getting in the gulf, hooking north, making landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi and rolling on the river or turning radically south to beat the shit out of ArgenTINA.

[RashoFan]

I vote that all the rest of the hurricanes be women's names, since they seem to change their minds(figuratively speaking)every few hours....

[cherylsteele]

maybe i don't know how all this hurricane stuff works or keep up with it, but where was H?
Hurricane Hannah, it is currently just off the Bahamas

[GuerillaBlack]

Ike will most likely enter the Gulf, where it has to hit something. It remains to be seen if it will hit Florida straight on before doing that though.

[Ginofan]

It looks like Ike is racing across the Atlantic! At a CAT 3 already, does anyone think that Ike could destroy Hanna's lazy ass?

[PM5K]

I would like to introduce TS IKE. He may be stopping in the GOM in a week from now...

You're not Manny, come up with your own shit...

[nsrammstein]

maybe Ike will eat Hannah and they will fuse together to form a super massive hyper hurricane the size of texas that will obliterate the entire gulf coast of Mexico & US resulting in widespread chaos and destruction that will eventually lead into a civil war where Mexicans will rule the US

[jman3000]

The models have him either getting in the gulf, hooking north, making landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi and rolling on the river or turning radically south to beat the shit out of ArgenTINA.

awesome.

[Ginofan]

maybe Ike will eat Hannah and they will fuse together to form a super massive hyper hurricane the size of texas that will obliterate the entire gulf coast of Mexico & US resulting in widespread chaos and destruction that will eventually lead into a civil war where Mexicans will rule the US

:lol Mexicans ruling the US....:lmao

On a serious note, without asking him, Dr. Masters answered my question about "combining" storms.



When hurricanes collide

I'm getting this question a lot--can hurricane collide to form a super hurricane? No, hurricanes cannot collide to make a bigger hurricane. When hurricanes get within about 900 miles of each, they begin to interact. There are three possible outcomes:

1) The larger storm will destroy the smaller one. The larger storm's upper-level outflow will bring hostile wind shear over the smaller storm, and the larger storm may steal the smaller storm's moisture. This occurred in 2005, when Hurricane Wilma destroyed Tropical Storm Alpha over Hispaniola.

2) Both hurricanes will compete for the same energy, resulting in weakening of both storms.

3) The storms will rotate around a common center of rotation (the Fujiwhara Effect), before going on their separate ways. Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Iris took part in a brief Fujiwara interaction in 1995. Iris then began interacting with a third storm, Tropical Storm Karen, which orbited and later merged with the more intense Iris.

Sometimes, a recurving hurricane will leave behind an enhanced trough of low pressure that will act to help recurve the storm behind it along the same path. This is possible this week with Ike and Hanna.

[1369]

Models are looking interesting for the Gulf...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png

[tlongII]

EVACUATE!!!

[RashoFan]

You're not Manny, come up with your own shit...

Bite me. There is no monoply on the weather threads.
Manny did the Gustav thread, Cry Havoc did the Hanna thread on someone else can start the TS/Hurricane Josephine thread...

[PM5K]

Bite me. There is no monoply on the weather threads.
Manny did the Gustav thread, Cry Havoc did the Hanna thread on someone else can start the TS/Hurricane Josephine thread...

No, ma'am, I do not concur... and I do not recognize your authority to create hurricane related threads under Navy regulations.

http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/5/7/1/7/12637175-12637178-large.jpg

[ShoogarBear]

The models have him either getting in the gulf, hooking north, making landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi and rolling on the river or turning radically south to beat the shit out of ArgenTINA.

Ike will be rollin' on the river!

[ShoogarBear]

Oh, and :flipoff SFIE, because I came into this thread knowing that nobody else would have thought of making a Tina joke before me.

[CuckingFunt]

maybe Ike will eat Hannah and they will fuse together to form a super massive hyper hurricane the size of texas that will obliterate the entire gulf coast of Mexico & US resulting in widespread chaos and destruction that will eventually lead into a civil war where Mexicans will rule the US

Looks like someone still hasn't figured out how to entertain himself in San Antonio.

[50 cent]

This fucking sucks. I'm going to the Dominican Republic on Sunday so I'm rooting for it to go as far north as possible.

[nsrammstein]

This fucking sucks. I'm going to the Dominican Republic on Sunday so I'm rooting for it to go as far north as possible.

It dosen't matter, you will still have to worry about Tropical Storm Josephine which will become a category 3 Hurricane within the next 72 hours

[Cry Havoc]

Ike explodes! Minimal shear overnight. He's cat 3 already!


Also, he's beginning to show characteristics of an annular hurricane. This does not bode well for the east coast.


http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/SAT_ATL_WVENH_ANI-2.gif

[Ginofan]

CH, is Ike still predicted to go into the Gulf or is he supposed to take the northern curve to the east coast?

[nsrammstein]

Ike explodes! Minimal shear overnight. He's cat 3 already!


Also, he's beginning to show characteristics of an annular hurricane. This does not bode well for the east coast.


http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/SAT_ATL_WVENH_ANI-2.gif

Fuck me!!

[nsrammstein]

http://http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/37/HurricaneIke2.gif

[Manu20]

Ike has rapidly intensified this evening. An eye became apparent in
conventional satellite imagery shortly after 2100 UTC. Since that
time the eye has become more distinct with a ring of very cold
clouds tops surrounding it. The latest Dvorak data T-numbers were
t6.0 and raw ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have averaged t6.2 since
2045 UTC. Based on these estimates the initial intensity is set
at 115 kt...making Ike a category four hurricane. Some additional
strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so...this
will largely be controlled by eye-wall replacement cycles. However
both the global models and SHIPS guidance indicate increasing
northeasterly shear in about 24 hours and it is difficult to
predict how an intense hurricane like Ike will be affected by this
shear. The NHC intensity forecast indicates some weakening between
24-72 hours due to the shear...but not as much as indicated by the
SHIPS guidance. At days 4 and 5...it appears that the shear will
decrease so re-strengthening is predicted at that time.


The initial motion estimate is 295/15. The track guidance agrees
on a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 24 hours.
During the middle portion of the forecast period...a mid-level
ridge is expected to build to the north of the cyclone...and the
models unanimously respond by turning Ike west-southwestward. The
lingering question that remains at the longer range is when Ike
will move around the western periphery of the ridge. The
model spread remains quite large at days 4 and 5. The GFDL is on
the left side of the guidance with a track near Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba...while the GFS and UKMET show a position to the
northeast of the Bahamas. For now...the official track is between
these possible solutions and is in best agreement with the
HWRF...the 12z ECMWF...and the model consensus.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 04/0300z 22.1n 54.1w 115 kt
12hr VT 04/1200z 23.1n 56.2w 115 kt
24hr VT 05/0000z 24.0n 58.7w 105 kt
36hr VT 05/1200z 24.3n 61.0w 105 kt
48hr VT 06/0000z 23.8n 63.6w 100 kt
72hr VT 07/0000z 22.5n 68.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 08/0000z 22.5n 72.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 09/0000z 24.0n 75.5w 115 kt


$$
forecaster Brown

Ike is now a category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds!:wow

[Cry Havoc]

This has to be one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in Atlantic history. He's showing a perfect donut shape and looks absolutely ferocious. Reminds me a little of Andrew, actually.

[nsrammstein]

holy fuck he is strengthening rapidlyy

[GuerillaBlack]

Damn, Ike transformed quick. It was just a tropical storm earlier today I believe. It looks like it'll plow right through Miami/South Florida, then enter the Gulf Coast for who knows what.

This thread title should be updated.

[RashoFan]

No, ma'am, I do not concur... and I do not recognize your authority to create hurricane related threads under Navy regulations.

http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/5/7/1/7/12637175-12637178-large.jpg

Rack B!
Very nicely played!

[RashoFan]

Damn, Ike transformed quick. It was just a tropical storm earlier today I believe. It looks like it'll plow right through Miami/South Florida, then enter the Gulf Coast for who knows what.

This thread title should be updated.

Sorry, I didn't know that I could edit the Title. I thought only Kori,LJ, Slomo, and Mitja were the only ones.

[RashoFan]

Nevermind...

[Cry Havoc]

CH, is Ike still predicted to go into the Gulf or is he supposed to take the northern curve to the east coast?

Right now the models are pretty split. It would be exceedingly rare for this storm to move into the Gulf right now, but that high above it might push it far south enough to do just that.

I'd bank (pardon the pun) on a Florida landfall and then Ike following the coast of the eastern seaboard to North Carolina.

[Manu20]

Right now the models are pretty split. It would be exceedingly rare for this storm to move into the Gulf right now, but that high above it might push it far south enough to do just that.

I'd bank (pardon the pun) on a Florida landfall and then Ike following the coast of the eastern seaboard to North Carolina.

In fact if you look at the historical tracks no storm has made it to the gulf or Florida.http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad

[duncan228]

Sorry, I didn't know that I could edit the Title. I thought only Kori,LJ, Slomo, and Mitja were the only ones.

I think you can only edit thread Titles in the first minute or so after you post it. After that you can't change it. You can PM Kori if you'd like it changed.

[MannyIsGod]

Note to those staring hurricane threads: Just use the name ie Gustav. Thats your tip for the day.

Fifth fastest 12 hour pressure drop in any storm although that may just be for the Atlantic basin. I don't agree its looking annular at all. Annular storms intensify slowly and steadily - they don't do that Ike just did. Furthermore, Annular storms lose their spiral bands and just have a large CDO in the middle. All the microwave scans of Ike clearly show spiral bands.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/composite/20080903.2328.f16.x.composite.09LIKE.65kts-987mb-212N-519W.56pc.jpg

Tough to say where it ends up. I hope it just recurves out to sea but I'm not sure how likely that is. Hannah is likely going to strengthen the high to the north and might leave path of slightly lower pressure in its wake. If this is the case then Ike would likely have a tendency to follow Hannah's path in a very weak general motion.

[Cry Havoc]

Tough to say where it ends up. I hope it just recurves out to sea but I'm not sure how likely that is. Hannah is likely going to strengthen the high to the north and might leave path of slightly lower pressure in its wake. If this is the case then Ike would likely have a tendency to follow Hannah's path in a very weak general motion.

Well, he's not going to recurve for a while. There's a huge ridge of high pressure moving from his NW that will be pushing east and keeping him on his westerly course.


In fact if you look at the historical tracks no storm has made it to the gulf or Florida.http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...o.html#a_topad

Point taken, however I would submit that we only have about 90 years worth of reliable data to back this assumption. I would not set it in stone as a Law of Nature yet. With that high in place, and this hurricane showing highly annular characteristics, I think a lot of our models will be useless in predicting where Ike moves.

[PM5K]

Note to those staring hurricane threads: Just use the name ie Gustav. Thats your tip for the day.

See, a smart guy like Weather Manny knows not to constrain his thread titles.....

[MannyIsGod]

Well, he's not going to recurve for a while. There's a huge ridge of high pressure moving from his NW that will be pushing east and keeping him on his westerly course.


I think the odds of this thing making it into the Gulf are really small. I think the odds of this storm hitting the East Coast are larger, but still small. By far the most likely scenario is a recurve out to sea.

[RashoFan]

Here's to praying that he does recurve out to sea...:angel

[nsrammstein]

just a stupid question here but what would happen if let's say hannah strengthens into a strong hurricane and suddenly shifts to the west into the gulf...will Ike follow? that would be a dooms day scenario

[Cry Havoc]

I think the odds of this thing making it into the Gulf are really small. I think the odds of this storm hitting the East Coast are larger, but still small. By far the most likely scenario is a recurve out to sea.

What steering force do you propose will recurve it? And how can you be sure that an annular hurricane will be affected as we expect? We know very little about them except that they seem to ignore atmospheric conditions much more easily than standard hurricanes.

I think Ike is still WAY too far out to see to judge what's going to happen. We couldn't predict Gustav even 8 hours in advance, as he continually jumped to the east of the forecast models. Fey was perhaps the most humbling forecast of a hurricane path in many years. Hannah seems to have experts baffled, as she stalled out several times.


just a stupid question here but what would happen if let's say hannah strengthens into a strong hurricane and suddenly shifts to the west into the gulf...will Ike follow? that would be a dooms day scenario

The chances of that happening are almost nil. They are nil. Hannah is clearly beginning to turn. She would have to loop around at this point to head for the Gulf, and if she did, she would run into Ike and be shredded. Hannah is too weak to do much of anything right now. She's at the mercy of the pressure systems around her. Ike is a bit of a different story...

I think everything has a small probability of happening right now.

[nsrammstein]

anyone have an updated radar and infrared image of this thing?

[Cry Havoc]

Ask, and ye shall receive.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13269-1220499114.gif

[MannyIsGod]

First, its not an annular hurricane. It is not asymetric and it still has rain bands. It has a great ring of convection around the eye but thats not an indicator of an annular storm but mearly of a healthy and strong one. About 1% of storms in the Atlantic Basin are annular and people toss out the phrase far too much now.

Secondly, steering currents are what they are. Annular storms do not react any differently than any other low pressure system to the general 500mb steering currents. A trough will recurve an annular storm just as it will recurve any other storm.

Fay was indeed tough on the forcasts, but the Gustav was one of the best forcasts of all time. Look at how early the NHC had that one pegged down. Bad exmple for you to use. Hannah I haven't paid that much attention to but storms with a lack of stearing are generaly very difficult to forcast (see Fay). This is not the case with Ike. Its moving quite fast at the moment.

Anyway, Ike is likely to get recurved out to sea by a trough the same way Hannah will. The models are already trending this way, but so far they've been pegging the high as too strong for this to happen. Climatology disagrees with this by a large factor as you can see from the historical tracks. I haven't looked at the latest model runs but they're all pretty useless until Hannah actually gets moving, anyway. Right now the best indicator of future track is a mix of 500mb forcasts and historical data - not the models.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW latest GFS does curve Ike out to sea and does not make landfall on the East Coast much less take it into the Gulf.

[GuerillaBlack]

BTW latest GFS does curve Ike out to sea and does not make landfall on the East Coast much less take it into the Gulf.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

[ShoogarBear]

This thread pegs the weather nerd scale.

All I need to know is: will my basement leak again?

[nsrammstein]

Ike will likely curve a little bit to the north and strike somewhere around Miami and then shift south southwest as a result of a ridge on it's north side...

[Cry Havoc]

First, its not an annular hurricane. It is not asymetric and it still has rain bands. It has a great ring of convection around the eye but thats not an indicator of an annular storm but mearly of a healthy and strong one. About 1% of storms in the Atlantic Basin are annular and people toss out the phrase far too much now.

Secondly, steering currents are what they are. Annular storms do not react any differently than any other low pressure system to the general 500mb steering currents. A trough will recurve an annular storm just as it will recurve any other storm.

Fay was indeed tough on the forcasts, but the Gustav was one of the best forcasts of all time. Look at how early the NHC had that one pegged down. Bad exmple for you to use. Hannah I haven't paid that much attention to but storms with a lack of stearing are generaly very difficult to forcast (see Fay). This is not the case with Ike. Its moving quite fast at the moment.

Anyway, Ike is likely to get recurved out to sea by a trough the same way Hannah will. The models are already trending this way, but so far they've been pegging the high as too strong for this to happen. Climatology disagrees with this by a large factor as you can see from the historical tracks. I haven't looked at the latest model runs but they're all pretty useless until Hannah actually gets moving, anyway. Right now the best indicator of future track is a mix of 500mb forcasts and historical data - not the models.

First of all, not every annular hurricane is going to fit the bill 100%. Hurricanes are not static objects obviously and they change throughout their life. It's a cat 4 with almost no outflow and a very tight eye. He's not symmetrical at the moment because he's encountering shear to his west. Not even perfect annular hurricane would remain so with a lot of shear (up to 30 knots over the next 48 hours).

Secondly, annular hurricanes have been shown to ignore environmental conditions. We don't know enough about standard hurricanes to make predictions 5-7 days in advance, and we know far less about annular storms.

Gustav showed an incredible flaw in the national forecast models. They originally had him landfalling in eastern Texas and even when he pushed East of the Isle of Youth instead of West, the forecast track was not updated. They just added more of a curvature into his later track. Accuweather did do a pretty good job of predicting where he would go, though.

Lastly, if the models are unsure how strong the high is going to be, I don't think you can automatically assume Ike will recurve just because it's what's happened in the past. Again, 90 years worth of data is a relatively microscopic amount. It was just three years ago that we saw our best forecasts rendered completely useless, not to mention shattering nearly every Atlantic hurricane record.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/08090400/3.phase1.png

If he isn't annular, he at least has a number of annular features.

Ike is now up to 145 mph. Closing in on Cat 5 status.

[nsrammstein]

is it common for a category 5 hurricane to form this far out in the ocean?

[remingtonbo2001]

Interesting.

[smeagol]

Shit, I have family in Miami.

[MannyIsGod]

First of all, not every annular hurricane is going to fit the bill 100%. Hurricanes are not static objects obviously and they change throughout their life. It's a cat 4 with almost no outflow and a very tight eye. He's not symmetrical at the moment because he's encountering shear to his west. Not even perfect annular hurricane would remain so with a lot of shear (up to 30 knots over the next 48 hours).


Secondly, annular hurricanes have been shown to ignore environmental conditions. We don't know enough about standard hurricanes to make predictions 5-7 days in advance, and we know far less about annular storms.


Dude, I can link you to the defenitive paper on Annular hurricanes if you want. Ike is not an annular storm and I'm not sure where you got the idea it was. It has spiral bands, is not fully symetrical, and it has indications of concentric eyewalls. Those are ALL features that do NOT show up in annular storms.

As for outflow, that has nothing to do with whether or not a hurricane is annular. And contrary to what you may believe, Ike has good outflow in 3 of the four quadrants. Based on you saying a Cat four storm has little outflow I'm not sure you fully understand what outflow from a storm is and I think you're confusing it with spiral banding.

The fact that shear is affecting this storm is ANOTHER strike against it being classified as annular. Look at hurricane epsilon from 2005. Thats a much stronger candidate to be considered annular. Under a ton of sheer it still maintained a great symetry. It was also in water usually too cold to support a hurricane.

Nothing about this storm says Annular unless you start classifying every storm with a solid CDO around an eye as annular and that isn't the case.

Look at this microwave pass from last night

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/amsre/89h/1degreeticks/20080904.0516.aqua1.x.89h_1deg.09LIKE.125kts-935mb-224N-550W.75pc.jpg

That is anything BUT annular. Game over. Just don't bring it up anymore please. Its just flat out not the case.



Gustav showed an incredible flaw in the national forecast models. They originally had him landfalling in eastern Texas and even when he pushed East of the Isle of Youth instead of West, the forecast track was not updated. They just added more of a curvature into his later track. Accuweather did do a pretty good job of predicting where he would go, though.

Lastly, if the models are unsure how strong the high is going to be, I don't think you can automatically assume Ike will recurve just because it's what's happened in the past. Again, 90 years worth of data is a relatively microscopic amount. It was just three years ago that we saw our best forecasts rendered completely useless, not to mention shattering nearly every Atlantic hurricane record.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/08090400/3.phase1.png

If he isn't annular, he at least has a number of annular features.

Ike is now up to 145 mph. Closing in on Cat 5 status.

Its like your trying to make statements that are so blatently false its killing me. Models aren't forcasts and they aren't perfect. There is a reason we have meterologists at the NHC and we don't just throw the models out there for everyone to see. Gustav was forcasts EXTREMELY well by the NHC and there is no other way to figure that.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

That link speaks for itself. The NHC's job on Gustav was one of the best they've ever done. The fact that you would bring up something as silly as a 300 mile margin of error on a five day tropical system forcast is flat out amazing to me. Once again, I'm not sure you realize the usual accuracy of hurricane forcasts over 3 days. If they had predicted an East Texas landfall (which they didn't but I'm going to humor the prospect to make a point) five days out they still would have been very accurate considering where landfall was made. As it was, the NHC never releasted a forcast landfall for the storm in Texas. In fact the forcast landfall didn't even seem to shift out of the same 100 mile area it made landfall in ANY of the NHC's forcast tracks.

:lol I'm honestly floored you're trying to use Gustav as a case model for forcasts flaws.

Anyway, its entirely possible that Ike goes into Florida. I never said otherwise. I never ruled it out. I'm not sure what your point is.

[CosmicCowboy]

Manny, looking at the historical data that shows virtually all the hurricanes on that track hooking fails to take into account if they were early or late season hurricanes. I'm not gonna look up the dates on all of them but as you probably know, this early in the season they tend to trend West (especially with the ridge that is present) and generally don't start the dramatic hooking back out into the Atlantic till later in the season. I have a feeling this guy is gonna tear up some expensive real estate.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny, looking at the historical data that shows virtually all the hurricanes on that track hooking fails to take into account if they were early or late season hurricanes. I'm not gonna look up the dates on all of them but as you probably know, this early in the season they tend to trend West (especially with the ridge that is present) and generally don't start the dramatic hooking back out into the Atlantic till later in the season. I have a feeling this guy is gonna tear up some expensive real estate.

Its not really early in the season. We're almost halfway through and we're nearing the peak. We're in prime Cape Verde season when storms form that far out. Typically they don't form in that area early in the season because the water temps aren't high enough at that point.

The historical data is accurate for this time of year. You have a good amount of troughs coming off the EC at this time of year and thats the reason why these storms rarely make landfall.

[smeagol]

So will it hit FLA?

Or is it too early to well?

[CosmicCowboy]

Models just updated. Looking more and more like a South Florida hit as a category 3.

[RashoFan]

This thread pegs the weather nerd scale.

All I need to know is: will my basement leak again?

No shingles on the roof and a leaky basement Shoog???? Sucks to get old Shoog....sucks to get old...



Sorry...:D

[1369]

No shingles on the roof and a leaky basement Shoog???? Sucks to get old Shoog....sucks to get old...



Sorry...:D

http://www.myconfinedspace.com/watermark.php?src=wp-content/uploads/2007/12/what-you-did-there-i-see-it.thumbnail.jpg

[Manu20]

There has been little change to the overall appearance of Ike during
the past few hours. Ike is maintaining a well-defined eye...though
cloud tops have warmed some in the eyewall recently. It is
interesting that while Ike started out as a large system...the
cloud canopy has noticeably shrunk today with few outer bands.
There has been only a small decrease in objective T-numbers...so
the initial intensity is reduced slightly to 115 kt. Strong
northeasterly shear is likely during the next day or so...which
should cause weakening. In fact...the SHIPS model responds to the
shear by weakening this system to a category one hurricane...though
the GFDL/HWRF are considerably higher. In a couple days...vertical
wind shear is forecast to weaken and...combined with rather warm
water waters east of the Bahamas...should result in
restrengthening. The hurricane's exact track is important because
it could be impacted by cooler waters upwelled by Hanna. The
official forecast is close to the previous one but is a little
lower for the first 36 hours out of respect for the SHIPS/lgem
models. Ike is expected to be a powerful hurricane as it
approaches the Bahamas in a couple of days.


The initial motion estimate is 285/12...slower than before and a
little to the left. Ridging from the central Atlantic is forecast
to build to the north and northwest of the tropical cyclone...
causing a west...and then west-southwest motion of Ike by late
tomorrow. The strength of the ridging between Ike and Hanna will
be critical to when an eventual turn toward the west-northwest will
occur in the long-range. There has been a noticeable westward
shift in almost all of the global model guidance today...with the
GFDL/ECMWF even taking the system as far southwest as Cuba. The
other models are pretty clustered on a track near or through the
central and northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast is shifted
westward and is pretty close to the HWRF model.

One should not focus on the exact 4 and 5 day forecast positions
because large uncertainties exist at those times.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 04/2100z 23.6n 58.2w 115 kt
12hr VT 05/0600z 23.9n 60.0w 105 kt
24hr VT 05/1800z 23.7n 62.5w 95 kt
36hr VT 06/0600z 23.2n 65.1w 95 kt
48hr VT 06/1800z 22.7n 67.7w 100 kt
72hr VT 07/1800z 22.5n 72.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 08/1800z 24.0n 76.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 09/1800z 25.5n 79.0w 110 kt


$$
forecaster Blake

What is interesting is that the 12z ecmwf takes it all the way to louisiana.

[Cry Havoc]

That is anything BUT annular. Game over. Just don't bring it up anymore please. Its just flat out not the case.

You might want to go tell the folks over at accuweather that it's not annular. You know, they don't know much, they're just the guys with degrees in meteorology. By all means go ahead and argue with them, if you feel so inclined to prove your point. Several of them have openly stated that they feel it is (or was) an annular hurricane. There is no denying that it's characteristics were somewhat annular in origin at the very least. The chart shows it to be a mostly symmetrical storm and that's WITH sheer coming from the North and West.


Its like your trying to make statements that are so blatently false its killing me. Models aren't forcasts and they aren't perfect. There is a reason we have meterologists at the NHC and we don't just throw the models out there for everyone to see. Gustav was forcasts EXTREMELY well by the NHC and there is no other way to figure that.

You're missing the point. The point was that when Gustav shifted, they did not shift the forecast track with it. They maintained that it was going to strike far West of where he actually made landfall, despite his track being on the opposite side of the isle of youth, hitting Cuba dead on instead of skirting it, and moving much faster than he was forecast to. The NHC held to it's original landfall predictions for a full 48 hours until the evidence that their track was extremely out of date. Only after the obvious was staring them in the face did they shift the track east.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

That link speaks for itself. The NHC's job on Gustav was one of the best they've ever done. The fact that you would bring up something as silly as a 300 mile margin of error on a five day tropical system forcast is flat out amazing to me.

Wow, so first you said that you know to a very high degree of probability where Ike is going to go, now you're saying that a 300 mile degree of error is negligible? 300 miles is huge when you are talking about where a hurricane will be in 10 days. If he was 300 miles south of where he is now, that would alter the forecast just a "little".



:lol I'm honestly floored you're trying to use Gustav as a case model for forcasts flaws.

They predicted it going west of the Isle of youth and skirting Cuba. It did neither, and they did not change their forecast to match this until 48 hours after the fact. That's a huge flaw in the forecast system and needs to be corrected. If I say Ike is going to hit Florida by going straight into the state from it's current location, and he loops around the southern part of Cuba, backs into the Gulf, moves back up through the eastern seaboard, loops around again, and then slams Florida, does that mean I accurately forecasted Ike's landfall?

FYI, Gustav made landfall 36 hours prior to the time that he was predicted to. Yeah, 300 miles and 36 hours is no difference. At all. :roll


Anyway, its entirely possible that Ike goes into Florida. I never said otherwise. I never ruled it out. I'm not sure what your point is.

You also said, "By far the most likely scenario is a recurve out to sea."

Wait, I thought we didn't know much about forecasting hurricanes 5+ days in advance? All -I- said was I don't think we can peg anything as "highly likely" yet. It was highly likely that Ike wouldn't make cat 4 status.

[MannyIsGod]

What annular characteristics Cry? Does it have spiral rain bands? Yes. Does it have a large eye? No. Does it have equal symmetry around each possible axis? No. What characteristics make it annular?

Just name them for me please. The only thing you have is that was mostly symmetrical and that some accuweather (LOL) met told you it was.

I'm not going to go in circles with you anymore. You apparently heard or think you heard some Met say this storm was annular so now you're stuck on that. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/annularhurr.pdf (http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/%7Ekossin/articles/annularhurr.pdf) Just go read up on them or not, but I'm done arguing that an asymetrical storm with concentric eye walls and a visible spiral structure is annular. Its just a retarded notion.

You're such a horrible debater man. Just bad.

#1 I never assigned numerical values to probabilities of any possible landfall on any location other than purposely vague indicators that it was more likely the storm would recurve out to sea before any landfalls. Yet somehow you're grilling me over this. Ok?

#2 Your insistence to use what any person who knows shit about the NHC, its history, and the history of forecasting tropical systems would regard as an amazing forecast as an indicator of flaws in forecasting by the NHC is mind boggling.

Cry, listen and try to understand this. Gustav was extremely well forecast. EXTREMELY. Constantly bringing it up and trying to point to errors to make some weird point about forecast accuracy is complete idiocy. Find me anyone with the tiniest bit of credibility who believes the NHC did a poor job. Go for it.

If you can't see the difference between the saying it is far more likely to curve out to sea and laying down a forcast track accurate to within 500 miles in regards to landfall locations then I'm not sure what to tell you. You just don't seem to grasp many of the concepts at work here.

[ShoogarBear]

No shingles on the roof and a leaky basement Shoog???? Sucks to get old Shoog....sucks to get old...



Sorry...:D

Owwwww . . .

I know when to shut up and take my whippin.

[Cry Havoc]

What annular characteristics Cry? Does it have spiral rain bands? Yes. Does it have a large eye? No. Does it have equal symmetry around each possible axis? No. What characteristics make it annular?

Just name them for me please. The only thing you have is that was mostly symmetrical and that some accuweather (LOL) met told you it was.

First of all, it's obvious that Ike is not an annular hurricane anymore, or has ceased to show many of his annular characteristics.

Wow. Yes. Laugh at someone who has a degree on the subject matter. Clearly you are the expert here.


You're such a horrible debater man. Just bad.

Thanks! I feel the same way about you.



#1 I never assigned numerical values to probabilities of any possible landfall on any location other than purposely vague indicators that it was more likely the storm would recurve out to sea before any landfalls. Yet somehow you're grilling me over this. Ok?

So wait... a "very high degree" of probability lets you off the hook because you didn't list statistically defined percentages? Wow. In that case, I'll predict every hurricane to 100% accuracy from now on using this criteria, because it if goes against the "very high degree" of probability, I have an out that gives me a chance to be right!


#2 Your insistence to use what any person who knows shit about the NHC, its history, and the history of forecasting tropical systems would regard as an amazing forecast as an indicator of flaws in forecasting by the NHC is mind boggling.

Cry, listen and try to understand this. Gustav was extremely well forecast. EXTREMELY. Constantly bringing it up and trying to point to errors to make some weird point about forecast accuracy is complete idiocy.

Go to the accuweather forums. They're as surprised as I am by how conservative the NHC has been this year. They originally predicted Gustav to be a max cat 2. He almost went cat 5. They missed his landfall by THIRTY-SIX HOURS. If you think a "great forecast" is missing a landfall by a day and a half, well it's easy to see why you think they did a fantastic job. Would 72 hours and 800 miles be "okay"? Would 140 hours off the landfall be "acceptable"?

Consider that there are numerous Meteorologists on the site who are disappointed in the NHC this year. They aren't out looking to rip on them, they're just flatly stating they have been lousy with forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season this year.


Find me anyone with the tiniest bit of credibility who believes the NHC did a poor job. Go for it.

See, now that's rich. Anyone I submit as in agreement with me that's not directly affiliated with the government (SUCH a trustworthy entity, btw) you are going to insult and pass off as an idiot.

But what the hell, I'll humor you. Met Mike18xx states:

"They did a crappy job with Gustav too, pre-Jamaica. In fact, Ike is the only storm this year (outside of possibly Bertha, which I didn't pay any attention to) they've really had a handle on. None of the usual wide-right BS they do with most storms in the central Atlantic -- no, they were right on the money calling for west. It's as if a meeting was called somewhere after the recent fiascos, bureaucrats were threatened with job security, and they leaned heavy on programmers to apply some simple-rule code band-aids to the models to get them to at least appear to function properly on mid-ocean TCs. (It's fun to fantacize, but alas, it doesn't explain Hannah's run toward Haiti.)"

--

Beyond this, go actually read the Gustav thread. It's full of educated people who are simply baffled at the way he was forecast to develop and move. In fact, the ONLY thing they got within a marginal range of being correct on was his final landfall position. They missed his intensity forecast about as poorly as is possible. They missed his location as he hit the Isle of Youth. They completely bombed the forecast track for Cuba. They missed his landfall time by 36 hours.

So again, do you care to address any of these points, or are you simply going to attempt to insult me? Fine quality of someone who knows what they're talking about, by the way.

[MannyIsGod]

Met Mike18xx huh? Is this your myspace or facebook buddy?

:lmao

I think I once read a paper published by Met John17yy. Maybe they've worked together in the past?

[Cry Havoc]

Met Mike18xx huh? Is this your myspace or facebook buddy?

:lmao

I think I once read a paper published by Met John17yy. Maybe they've worked together in the past?

Yes, because the screenname "MannyIsGod" gives you a LOT of credibility. :rolleyes You're awesome at this. Anyone who disagrees with you is insulted and cast out of hand. Must be a pretty simple way to go about believing you're right.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao


Met Mike18xx

[Cry Havoc]

:lmao

The incredible irony here is what's funny. You're laughing at someone for talking about weather on an internet forum. Just think about that.

[MannyIsGod]

No, I'm laughing at you and your declaration of Met Mike18xx's authority.

[Cry Havoc]

No, I'm laughing at you and your declaration of Met Mike18xx's authority.

Yes. I admit that he knows (a lot) more than I do about the study of weather. What's the problem with that?

[LuvBones]

Yes, because the screenname "MannyIsGod" gives you a LOT of credibility. :rolleyes You're awesome at this. Anyone who disagrees with you is insulted and cast out of hand. Must be a pretty simple way to go about believing you're right.


The incredible irony here is what's funny. You're laughing at someone for talking about weather on an internet forum. Just think about that.

:lol You're awesome..

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

This thread exemplifies the reason I stopped debating anyone on any serious topic on the internets. There is little point, and it just degenerates into name calling.

On other matters, Ike is a good-lookin hurricane, but not as pretty as Maemi:

http://www.weatherstockphotos.com/images/070530171223_Typhoon_Maemi_LG.jpg

I stood in the outskirts of that mofo as it flattened an island. Biggest storm in the northwest Pacific in 40 years.

You guys should go and live in Okinawa if you love typhoons! :D

[RashoFan]

Owwwww . . .

I know when to shut up and take my whippin.

I thought you liked to be spanked not whipped??? Have I confused you with another good looking man?
:)

/kiss

[Bigzax]

any residents of tinaturner, USA better watch the fuck out!

[CosmicCowboy]

Hey Manny...

Checked the models this morning?

That sucker isn't hooking and looks like it could make it into the gulf.

[Ginofan]

A few models have it slightly curvin but it's definitely going to hit the U.S. either on the east side of Florida or in the Gulf somewhere...yikes!

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

So there's a coin flip's chance I may be going to Miami to provide Web site help to one of our stations there. I know what I would be doing for those few hours I'd be off work.

[Trainwreck2100]

So there's a coin flip's chance I may be going to Miami to provide Web site help to one of our stations there. I know what I would be doing for those few hours I'd be off work.

pray?

[1369]

Hurricane Hunters just penetrated the eye of Ike.

Pressure: 959 MB
Max Winds: 124 MPH

[MannyIsGod]

Hey Manny...

Checked the models this morning?

That sucker isn't hooking and looks like it could make it into the gulf.

We'll see.

[MannyIsGod]

That H pressure extension in between Ike and Hannah is the just weird. Its already pushing Ike south of where the any of the models who think its going to recurve so CC is right that every 6 hours or so this storm looks more and more likely to get into the Gulf.

I still cant' believe the Euro which has it going into LA again. It would be extremely odd if that happend.

[CosmicCowboy]

Models just updated. They are starting to narrow and seem to pretty much agree that Ike is gonna shoot the gap between Florida and Cuba and may hit the Florida keys as a category 4.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

[Cry Havoc]

Models just updated. They are starting to narrow and seem to pretty much agree that Ike is gonna shoot the gap between Florida and Cuba and may hit the Florida keys as a category 4.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

There are no words for how horrible this storm is shaping up for Florida. If he drifts N at all and then recurves, he could possibly hit Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale in one fell swoop.

Or he could sweep in just south of Miami and skirt the west coast of Florida all the way up before hanging a right and breaking out to the eastern seaboard.

Everyone living in Florida should be on full alert this weekend. Ike could still go cat 4-5. Intensity forecasts have been awful this year and extremely conservative and they have him as a strong 4 right now.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

There are no words for how horrible this storm is shaping up for Florida. If he drifts N at all and then recurves, he could possibly hit Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale in one fell swoop.

Or he could sweep in just south of Miami and skirt the west coast of Florida all the way up before hanging a right and breaking out to the eastern seaboard.

Everyone living in Florida should be on full alert this weekend. Ike could still go cat 4-5. Intensity forecasts have been awful this year and extremely conservative and they have him as a strong 4 right now.

What a great post to announce that I fly out to Miami tomorrow morning until the storm passes (come back Friday).

[Cry Havoc]

What a great post to announce that I fly out to Miami tomorrow morning until the storm passes (come back Friday).

Wouldn't you rather know going in? I mean, I don't like being the bearer of bad news, but the more information you have, the better off you are in this case. I would start making preparations to get out if the forecast turns grim.

I have a very bad feeling about this storm. It's probably the last time we'll ever see a hurricane named "Ike".

[MannyIsGod]

Wouldn't you rather know going in? I mean, I don't like being the bearer of bad news, but the more information you have, the better off you are in this case. I would start making preparations to get out if the forecast turns grim.

I have a very bad feeling about this storm. It's probably the last time we'll ever see a hurricane named "Ike".

And you're complaining about what I say? Thats such a huge unfounded thing to say.

[1369]

Florida gonna get wet.

*edit* Can't seem to link the image

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Oh, I volunteered for this assignment. I love covering big news and jumped at this chance when I got the initial call last night. I've been told the newsroom I'm going to gets shuttered, so as long as there's power and a net connection... I've got some news going.

[RashoFan]

What a great post to announce that I fly out to Miami tomorrow morning until the storm passes (come back Friday).

well crap, I wanted to see if you wanted to go get that coffee tonight.

[GuerillaBlack]

What's an EWRC?

[MannyIsGod]

Eyewall replacement cycle.

JB - take me with you!

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Eyewall replacement cycle.

JB - take me with you!

So looking at it right now, would it be safe to say that Miami would get the brunt of the storm since it'd be to the north of the eye?

HAHA... honestly, man, I have a feeling I'm going to be stuck inside that station for 36 hours straight once that hurricane gets close to Miami.

[MannyIsGod]

Honestly, as much as I thought it was extremely unlikely the more its looking like this storm is going to miss Florida all together and hit Cuba then end up in the Gulf. Its not looking very good right now and the farther south it gets the less time it has to ever regain strength before making a landfall.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Honestly, as much as I thought it was extremely unlikely the more its looking like this storm is going to miss Florida all together and hit Cuba then end up in the Gulf. Its not looking very good right now and the farther south it gets the less time it has to ever regain strength before making a landfall.

Well, this would much ado about nothing if that happens. I kind of want to witness all this actually. I last read trop. storm winds by monday. guess we'll see. flight boards in a few minutes.

follow me at twitter.com/joeruiz

[BacktoBasics]

It better not come to Corpus

[Kevin Blackistone]

Now I've seen it all. Meterological sissy verbal slap fights on a Spurs forum.

[smeagol]

I kind of want to witness all this actually.

I was in Miami when Wilma hit after Katrina (the one that leveled Cancun). It hit Florida as a CAT 3. It is only cool if you are in a well-built house/building.

[BRHornet45]

No, but Gustav was a wuss hurricane. All hype.

yea Gustav was a wuss. I love the ignorance some people show. the oak tree that is sitting in my living room from that wussy hurricane proves it. all of baton rouge and areas around it got hit hard and most are still without power and will be for 1-3 more weeks.

[1369]

Just upgraded to a Cat 4. Looks like the Bahamas are going to take a direct hit.


Hurricane Ike has re-intensified, and now has Category 4-strength winds, according to the latest data from the Hurricane Hunters. Both an Air Force and a NOAA aircraft recorded surface winds of 135 mph this afternoon on the northeast side of Ike. Category 4 strength winds range from 135-155 mph. Infrared satellite loops show Ike is more symmetric now, with improved upper-level outflow to the north. Shear has fallen from 25 knots this morning to 15 knots this afternoon, allowing this intensification to occur.


The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) computer models foresee a probable direct hit by Ike on Grand Inagua Island in the Southeast Bahamas, with the Turks and Caicos Islands also getting hit hard. The eye is about 35 miles in diameter, so a region about 50 miles wide will feel Category 3+ hurricane winds in the Southeast Bahamas. These islands can expect a storm surge of 13-18 feet, and extreme damaging winds. Ike will pass 40-80 miles north of northwestern Haiti, bringing extreme flooding rains of 6-12" to the island of Hispaniola.

All of the major models agree that Ike will hit eastern Cuba on Sunday night. After this point, the models continue to diverge. A southern camp of models, the ECMWF and UKMET, take Ike across eastern Cuba and into the western Caribbean, then across the western tip of Cuba or Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. These models predict an eventual landfall near the Mexico/Texas border a week from now. This track would bring tropical storm conditions to the Cancun/Cozumel area beginning Tuesday afternoon or evening, with possible hurricane conditions by Wednesday morning.

The northern camp of models, including the GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF, turn Ike west-northwest over Cuba, forecasting that Ike will pop off the coast of Cuba near the Florida Keys on Tuesday, then swing north-northwest. The northward turn is delayed in the current runs, putting Ike into the central Gulf of Mexico, or several hundred miles offshore the western Florida coast. The trough of pressure that pulls Ike to the north is expected to be weak, leaving Ike in a region of weak steering currents. A similar situation occurred in 1985, when Category 3 Hurricane Elena got stranded in the Gulf and wander offshore of the Florida Panhandle for several days. So far, the GFDL has done a good job with Ike, so I will continue to lean towards that track. The GFDL tracks Ike over Cuba until the storm pops off the coast south of the Keys, and intensifies it from a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane to a Category 3 hurricane as it passes 50 miles southwest of Key West. The GFDL brings Category 2 winds to Key West. The model then takes Ike north-northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico to an uncertain future.

[1369]

Not liking the looks of this model...

ECMWF Animation (http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/ecmwf_caribbean.html)

[Buddy Holly]

Ike ready to put an ass whoopin' on someone else.

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/ike_narrowweb__300x441,2.jpg

This time. In Hurricane form.

[MannyIsGod]

If this thing goes after NOLA then I'm convinced someone upstairs just does not like that city.

[GuerillaBlack]

If this thing goes after NOLA then I'm convinced someone upstairs just does not like that city.

Mother Nature must be pissed at New Orleans.

[smeagol]

If this thing goes after NOLA then I'm convinced someone upstairs just does not like that city.

This is as close as I have seen you mentioning the existence of a "superior being".

Then again, it could've been simply a figure of speach. :lol

[GuerillaBlack]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_sat.jpg

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/at200809_model090609d.gif

It's looking less like a NOLA problem, and more of a Lake Charles-Beaumont-Houston-Corpus Christi problem. In other words, we don't know anything yet.

[RashoFan]

Standby to standby on this hurricane..."he" is on a crazy track..
I had a feeling he was coming into the GOM and not hitting staraight onto FL or the EC.

I think he is going to hit the Texas coast, H-town get ready to swim.

[MannyIsGod]

This is as close as I have seen you mentioning the existence of a "superior being".

Then again, it could've been simply a figure of speach. :lol

I typically keep spiritual thoughts to myself (where they belong, IMO).

[MannyIsGod]

LOL the latest GFS runs bring it torwards South Texas. Joe you may have gone to Florida just to have the storm come back here. That'd be some shit.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_144l.gif

LOL is all I can say.

[Manu20]

All I have to say is keep it away from south texas we already had enough with dolly.

[Manu20]

The Euro has Ike tracking all the texas coastline.:dizzy http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20 America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090612!!!step/


According to the NWS in Brownsville it is very unlikely.


THE PATH OF HURRICANE IKE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TAKES THE STORM THROUGH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE NHC TRACKS
THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT PATH HURRICANE IKE WILL TAKE
ONCE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER IKE ENTERS THE GULF. THE 12Z
MODEL RUN FROM THE ECMWF KEEPS IKE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LA AND
DEVIATES FROM THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS IKE INTO LA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS PROBABLY AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AND ITS OUTCOME IS
PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY THE FORMATION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT FORCES IKE TO TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS RIDGE
FARTHER SOUTH.

WE WILL UPDATE YOU WITH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IN THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE.

[Trainwreck2100]

yea Gustav was a wuss. I love the ignorance some people show. the oak tree that is sitting in my living room from that wussy hurricane proves it. all of baton rouge and areas around it got hit hard and most are still without power and will be for 1-3 more weeks.

And the news had us talking about the lost city of Atlantis. If Gustav was anything like we were led to believe all that should have been left was an oaktree. fuck that reggie bush hurricane

[MannyIsGod]

The Euro has Ike tracking all the texas coastline.:dizzy http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20 America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090612!!!step/ (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500%21Wind%20850%20and%20mslp%2172%21No rth%20America%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%212 008090612%21%21%21step/)


According to the NWS in Brownsville it is very unlikely.

The problem is that since that discussion both the following Euro and GFS runs have it off the Texas coast. I'm not saying thats where its going to end up just that with each model run that says thats the case it becomes more likely.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

LOL the latest GFS runs bring it torwards South Texas. Joe you may have gone to Florida just to have the storm come back here. That'd be some shit.

Yeah, that's what everybody's been telling me. :lol

Might as well pimp where I'm working. We're on live right now until about 11 a.m. CDT.

http://www.local10.com/video/17401020/index.html

[MannyIsGod]

Joe if this does make landfall on the Texas Coast and you chase it to cover it you are taking me with you.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Joe if this does make landfall on the Texas Coast and you chase it to cover it you are taking me with you.

I'm 99.9 percent sure I wouldn't be chasing it myself, but aggregating coverage from the newsroom, especially if it were to land on the weekend.

[1369]

Latest models don't bode well for Texas...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

[MannyIsGod]

I'm 99.9 percent sure I wouldn't be chasing it myself, but aggregating coverage from the newsroom, especially if it were to land on the weekend.

Pussy.

[PakiDan]

The problem is that since that discussion both the following Euro and GFS runs have it off the Texas coast. I'm not saying thats where its going to end up just that with each model run that says thats the case it becomes more likely.

Manny,

You know I like you, but the actual performance and trek of this hurricane just tore any percieved credibility your previous statements had to shreds... It did NOTHING you predicted it to do... Somewhere out there cry havoc is shrugging smuggly. Quite frankly I think it's time to be a man and admit you were wrong...

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Pussy.

Fuck you. :lol

I gotta earn a paycheck... and if it happens Friday, there's no way they're letting me go from Big Game Coverage.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny,

You know I like you, but the actual performance and trek of this hurricane just tore any percieved credibility your previous statements had to shreds... It did NOTHING you predicted it to do... Somewhere out there cry havoc is shrugging smuggly. Quite frankly I think it's time to be a man and admit you were wrong...

I wasn't wrong Paki. If I you come to me with a set of dice and say Im' going to roll them, what numbers are going to land and I respond telling you that it is far more likely that it will land on anything but snake eyes and then it lands on snake eyes was I wrong? If this storm was so likely to enter the gulf given its starting latitude then why have no other storms ever taken this track? I know that everyone loves weather models now, but the fact is climatology still plays a huge roll in long term forcasting and it does so for a reason. That is because the odds are swayed in its favor.

I never said the storm was going to do any one particular thing, I said one particular course was more likely. I don't think I should apologize for the lack of others reading comprehension.

I never said it was impossible for the storm to end up in the Gulf, did I? Cry and I argued more over his assertion the storm was annular (it never was) and that the Gustav forcasting by the NHC was poor (It was actualy excellent) so tell me where I've been wrong Paki?

If you're going to call me out maybe you should explain why?

[LuvBones]

I wasn't wrong Paki.

I never said the storm was going to do any one particular thing, I said one particular course was more likely.

Now I could be wrong, but I think he's talking about these statements..


BTW latest GFS does curve Ike out to sea and does not make landfall on the East Coast much less take it into the Gulf.


I think the odds of this thing making it into the Gulf are really small. I think the odds of this storm hitting the East Coast are larger, but still small. By far the most likely scenario is a recurve out to sea.



Anyway, Ike is likely to get recurved out to sea by a trough the same way Hannah will. The models are already trending this way, but so far they've been pegging the high as too strong for this to happen. .

[MannyIsGod]

Ok. I'm not the GFS. There is one. Then I see the word likely and odds in the next 2. Like I said, I'm not going to apologize because people here fail at reading comprehension.

[smeagol]

Now I could be wrong, but I think he's talking about these statements..

Not sure what is it you are trying to prove with your post.

Manny said very clearly what the most likely path would be, not what the 100%, beyond any shred of doubt, accurate path would be.

Your post only reinforces Manny's statement.

[LuvBones]

Obviously Manny wouldn't say with 100% certainty what his prediction was.. that's why it's a prediction. My point was simply that his prediction was wrong (as Paki was saying). If that doesn't make sense then I guess I'm wrong. :shrugs

[MannyIsGod]

I guess you misunderstand what a prediction was since I didn't give a prediction. I gave what the odds of something happening were. If I say a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads that doesn't mean I'm saying its going to land on heads.

I even went as far to explain this to CH after my posts when he too jumped on me for my "prediction".

And CH and I weren't even arguing over what the path it would take was. We were arguing over whether or not Ike was an annular hurricane and whether or not Gustav was forecast correctly by the NHC.

But yeah, given where Ike is now I should apologize because the never made prediction that wasn't the center of the argument has proven false. Ok.

[BacktoBasics]

I guess you misunderstand what a prediction was since I didn't give a prediction. I gave what the odds of something happening were. If I say a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads that doesn't mean I'm saying its going to land on heads.

I even went as far to explain this to CH after my posts when he too jumped on me for my "prediction".

And CH and I weren't even arguing over what the path it would take was. We were arguing over whether or not Ike was an annular hurricane and whether or not Gustav was forecast correctly by the NHC.

But yeah, given where Ike is now I should apologize because the never made prediction that wasn't the center of the argument has proven false. Ok.Make a prediction already so I can make plans to evacuate before the rush.

[smeagol]

I guess you misunderstand what a prediction was since I didn't give a prediction. I gave what the odds of something happening were. If I say a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads that doesn't mean I'm saying its going to land on heads.

I even went as far to explain this to CH after my posts when he too jumped on me for my "prediction".

And CH and I weren't even arguing over what the path it would take was. We were arguing over whether or not Ike was an annular hurricane and whether or not Gustav was forecast correctly by the NHC.

But yeah, given where Ike is now I should apologize because the never made prediction that wasn't the center of the argument has proven false. Ok.

At a minimum, you lose the snowflake underneath your avatar . . . :lol

[SpursWoman]

I mean seriously, Manny, WTF? Why didn't you tell anyone 2 weeks ago that Ike was going to throw a massive wave at this building?! What the hell's wrong with you?! You suck at predictions! Keep your day job!!


http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200809/r290358_1241204.jpg

[1369]

Make a prediction already so I can make plans to evacuate before the rush.

The GFS has made one...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

37 gonna be backed up like a bitch if this holds true...

[Shelly]

I mean seriously, Manny, WTF? Why didn't you tell anyone 2 weeks ago that Ike was going to throw a massive wave at this building?! What the hell's wrong with you?! You suck at predictions! Keep your day job!!


http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200809/r290358_1241204.jpg

There goes my timeshare. Thanks, Manny. Thanks a lot. :depressed

[MannyIsGod]

You guys should have listened to CH. He was predicting that wave for weeks.

[JudynTX]

Manny..........is Ike heading towards us? :wow

[BacktoBasics]

The GFS has made one...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

37 gonna be backed up like a bitch if this holds true...
you're fooling yourself if you think I can make sense of that picture.

I need Manny's prediction not some accredited weather source.

Where's it going Manny?

[BacktoBasics]

looks like a penis sticking out the left side of the country

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

looks like a penis sticking out the left side of the country

That's where baby storms come from B2B. When a high pressure system and a low pressure system love each other very much...well you know how it goes from there. Why else do you think we name the storms?

[hater]

looks like a penis sticking out the left side of the country

Means New Orleans is about to get fucked

[Ginofan]

you're fooling yourself if you think I can make sense of that picture.

I need Manny's prediction not some accredited weather source.

Where's it going Manny?

:lol

You see that dark orange blob thingie sitting between Brownsville and Galveston (guestimation) that's the hurricane...that's where they predict it to hit.

[Manu20]

I think Ike is really starting to like Texas.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

[lebomb]

If it comes towards San Antonio........we will see tropical storm winds, tornadoes, and a HELL of alot of rain. Oh well......there goes the weekend.

[BacktoBasics]

What the fuck happened to thing hitting up North or LA. I can't have this thing coming south like this.

[Manu20]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2008


an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ike
recently reported a central pressure of 965 mb. Data from the
aircraft indicates that the core of Ike has been disrupted due to
land interaction...and the winds have decreased. The initial
intensity is lowered to 70 kt...but this might be generous.
However...if the center remains over warm waters...restrengthening
could occur before its second landfall in central or western Cuba.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 36 hours
until Ike moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and away from
Cuba. Once Ike moves into the Gulf...environmental conditions look
favorable for strengthening and the official forecast calls for
intensification. The new official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory beyond 48 hr.


Ike has been wobbling westward throughout the day and our best
estimate of the motion is now 275/12. Track models are tightly
clustered about a general west-northwest track during the next
couple of days taking the center of Ike along or just south of Cuba
tonight...then into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. Once
in the Gulf...Ike could slow down as a shortwave trough moves over
the eastern United States and weakens the ridge to the north of the
hurricane. The trough is forecast to quickly swing by and be
replaced by a mid-level ridge over the southern United States. Such
a pattern should force Ike to turn more westward. Dynamical models
have been trending towards a stronger ridge at days 3 through
5...and nearly all of the guidance has shifted southward. Since
the models are in reasonably good agreement...the official forecast
is also shifted southward but still lies north of the dynamical
model consensus.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 08/2100z 21.4n 79.7w 70 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 21.8n 81.4w 80 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 22.6n 83.2w 80 kt...inland
36hr VT 10/0600z 23.6n 84.8w 75 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 24.4n 86.0w 85 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 25.5n 89.0w 95 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 27.0n 92.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 13/1800z 29.0n 96.0w 95 kt...inland


$$
forecaster Rhome/Avila

[Shelly]

B2B, I just saw on CNN that they're thinking it's possible that the Ikester could hit west of Galveston.

GET OUT NOW!!!!

[BacktoBasics]

I'm 100% commission this would destroy me. Even though I have nice chunk in savings it would be months before we'd be back up in a position where I'd have steady sales. If this place is ripped apart we'd have little to no winter texans and a ravaged inventory.

The idea of this coming into CC is a freightening prospect.

[Ginofan]

We are still several days out...just keep an eye out on the models and what the NHC says. There's no reason to get psycho panicky right now. I'd say if by Wednesday they still predict a Texas landfall between Galveston and CC then heck yeah haul ass outta there.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Ike's pissed I didn't get to see the storm. He's coming after me!

Totally random side note: The Charlotte airport has two Lids stores, two NASCAR stores and a Coca-Cola 600 Cafe.

[1369]

The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) computer models continue to show that Ike will track northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there has been a major shift in the model tracks for Thursday and Friday. All of the models are calling for a more westward motion, bringing Ike to a landfall in Texas sometime Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The new set of model runs is portraying stronger high pressure over the central Gulf on Wednesday and Thursday will push Ike faster than expected to the west. The trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike to the north does not arrive until Friday night, after the storm has already made landfall in Texas. The timing and strength of this trough, plus the speed with which Ike moves across the Gulf this week are still uncertain. We cannot be confident yet of a Texas landfall until we see several model runs in row that lock in on this solution. All five major models--the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF--foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. The GFDL model foresees landfall as a Category 2, and the HWRF as a Category 3. Landfall could be as early as Friday afternoon, or as late as Saturday morning.

Hurricane party?

[PakiDan]

I guess you misunderstand what a prediction was since I didn't give a prediction. I gave what the odds of something happening were. If I say a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads that doesn't mean I'm saying its going to land on heads.

I even went as far to explain this to CH after my posts when he too jumped on me for my "prediction".

And CH and I weren't even arguing over what the path it would take was. We were arguing over whether or not Ike was an annular hurricane and whether or not Gustav was forecast correctly by the NHC.

But yeah, given where Ike is now I should apologize because the never made prediction that wasn't the center of the argument has proven false. Ok.

First off, thank you LuvBones for clarifying my statement. Second, Chill Manny! You made your own bed. You self profess by your posts on this site to be highly interested and knowledgable on weather. I just think that you jumped all over Cry Havoc with what you thought was Superior info on this storm, and so far this storm has bitch slapped your weather know how in the face. I would get on Buddy Holly as equally if he had made som largely incorrect statements about some big retail project going up all the while being condescending to anyone not agreeing with his beliefs (and yes you have been condescending, first to Cry and second to me for not 'Knowing Enough' about your weather jargon to understand everything you said. Well - I agree - maybe I am not the smartest guy when it comes t Meteorologist terms but I am sure I can make you look silly on may other subject matters, which I probably would refrain from doing because I generally like you, and what not get much satisfaction by taking cheap jabs at you just because you don't fully understand my position or perhaps disagree with it. That would make me look and feel childish. I stopped having temper tantrums MANY years ago. They just aren't productive and I realized they just made me look... well.... stupid.

[BacktoBasics]

Manny...acting condescending and generally being a know-it-all. Never.

[Shelly]

Steve Browne was showing computer models of Ike after it makes landfall. And Ike would be headed straight for SA. He said it would be possible that we could have 100 mph winds here in town.

Yikes!

[Manu20]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_108s.gif

Damn, GFS has Ike right at my backyard.

[LuvBones]

First off, thank you LuvBones for clarifying my statement. Second, Chill Manny! You made your own bed. You self profess by your posts on this site to be highly interested and knowledgable on weather. I just think that you jumped all over Cry Havoc with what you thought was Superior info on this storm, and so far this storm has bitch slapped your weather know how in the face. I would get on Buddy Holly as equally if he had made som largely incorrect statements about some big retail project going up all the while being condescending to anyone not agreeing with his beliefs (and yes you have been condescending, first to Cry and second to me for not 'Knowing Enough' about your weather jargon to understand everything you said. Well - I agree - maybe I am not the smartest guy when it comes t Meteorologist terms but I am sure I can make you look silly on may other subject matters, which I probably would refrain from doing because I generally like you, and what not get much satisfaction by taking cheap jabs at you just because you don't fully understand my position or perhaps disagree with it. That would make me look and feel childish. I stopped having temper tantrums MANY years ago. They just aren't productive and I realized they just made me look... well.... stupid.

No problem Paki :) and well said. :tu

[HighLowLobForBig-50]

guess we wont be racing this weekend

[Biernutz]

Zoomed-In Wind Swath Forecast Updated: 5 pm EDT September 8, 2008:

http://www.crownweather.com/ike.html


http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb270/systime/ike2.jpg

http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb270/systime/IKE-1.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

First off, thank you LuvBones for clarifying my statement. Second, Chill Manny! You made your own bed. You self profess by your posts on this site to be highly interested and knowledgable on weather. I just think that you jumped all over Cry Havoc with what you thought was Superior info on this storm, and so far this storm has bitch slapped your weather know how in the face. I would get on Buddy Holly as equally if he had made som largely incorrect statements about some big retail project going up all the while being condescending to anyone not agreeing with his beliefs (and yes you have been condescending, first to Cry and second to me for not 'Knowing Enough' about your weather jargon to understand everything you said. Well - I agree - maybe I am not the smartest guy when it comes t Meteorologist terms but I am sure I can make you look silly on may other subject matters, which I probably would refrain from doing because I generally like you, and what not get much satisfaction by taking cheap jabs at you just because you don't fully understand my position or perhaps disagree with it. That would make me look and feel childish. I stopped having temper tantrums MANY years ago. They just aren't productive and I realized they just made me look... well.... stupid.

Sorry but you're full of shit on this Paki. Don't call me out about being condescending when you call me out and then I defend myself. If you punch someone in the nuts don't turn around and tell them "wow you don't play fair".

You're more than welcome to prove me wrong at any point, Paki. I'm not going to get pissed off if you actually prove me wrong. However, if like Cry you keep arguing something that is absolutely not true don't expect me to have the same level of patience on the fourth post. If when I ask you for someone with authority to back up what you're saying you provide an internet post by "metmike 18xx" don't be surprised if I laugh my ass off.

I didn't use any "weather jargon", Paki. I used the words likely and chance. Those are pretty much standard English. Like I said before, the forecast wasn't even the main point of contention between CH and I in the argument. Its not like I'm making any of this up because its all right there for you to read.

I was a dick to Cry. There's no denying that. I lost patience with his ridiculous arguments. It was almost as annoying as being called out by you for being condescending because someone doesn't agree with me which is bullshit. There's a difference between getting annoyed by someone who keeps spouting off complete bullshit and being condescending to someone who has a different opinion. Notice how CC had a different opinion and I didn't say shit to him? Thanks for calling me out though. How long have you been waiting to do that?

[MannyIsGod]

Manny...acting condescending and generally being a know-it-all. Never.

If there's anyone on this forum who I feel suffers fools about as "well", its you so I almost take that as a compliment.

[1369]

New model run is out and the track is alinging and shifting further west...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels.gif

[PakiDan]

Sorry but you're full of shit on this Paki. Don't call me out about being condescending when you call me out and then I defend myself. If you punch someone in the nuts don't turn around and tell them "wow you don't play fair".

You're more than welcome to prove me wrong at any point, Paki. I'm not going to get pissed off if you actually prove me wrong. However, if like Cry you keep arguing something that is absolutely not true don't expect me to have the same level of patience on the fourth post. If when I ask you for someone with authority to back up what you're saying you provide an internet post by "metmike 18xx" don't be surprised if I laugh my ass off.

I didn't use any "weather jargon", Paki. I used the words likely and chance. Those are pretty much standard English. Like I said before, the forecast wasn't even the main point of contention between CH and I in the argument. Its not like I'm making any of this up because its all right there for you to read.

I was a dick to Cry. There's no denying that. I lost patience with his ridiculous arguments. It was almost as annoying as being called out by you for being condescending because someone doesn't agree with me which is bullshit. There's a difference between getting annoyed by someone who keeps spouting off complete bullshit and being condescending to someone who has a different opinion. Notice how CC had a different opinion and I didn't say shit to him? Thanks for calling me out though. How long have you been waiting to do that?

Wow... sounds like there are some deeper issues here... Hey - I'm just calling it like I see it, and it seems to me that the only one losing their cool in this entire thread is you! Someone feeling a little insecure? Hey - I'm sorry you had a bad day, or whatever... but learn to practice a little tact and you'll see that things go much easier. It's ok - you are young, padiwan, you will learn someday, I have faith in you.

[MannyIsGod]

Wow... sounds like there are some deeper issues here... Hey - I'm just calling it like I see it, and it seems to me that the only one losing their cool in this entire thread is you! Someone feeling a little insecure? Hey - I'm sorry you had a bad day, or whatever... but learn to practice a little tact and you'll see that things go much easier. It's ok - you are young, padiwan, you will learn someday, I have faith in you.

Please don't be so condescending to me, Paki. I resent you thinking you know more about life than me. I think you should apologize.

[KEDA]

Hey guys, STFU and take one of these.

http://www.drinkandshare.com/noninana/images/Kleenex.jpg

Wipe the tears out of your vaginas, and lets get back to the Ike coverage.

[Ginofan]

Is Manny heading to Corpus for a little hurricane chasing?

[MannyIsGod]

Is Manny heading to Corpus for a little hurricane chasing?

If it comes through this weekend I'd like to. It depends on the forecast track, though. If we stand a decent chance of getting shit here then I'd rather just stay home but I seriously doubt that we'd see Cat 2 force winds here since the storm would have been over land for quite some time.

I'll just have to wait and see.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I'm in Corpus for work visiting clients all week, but they're closing up shop Thursday and heading out of town. Work's flying me back to Dallas tomorrow evening so I can get out of the way of all this.

Maybe I should see if I can stay and Manny can come down and we can report to Spurstalk in the eye of the storm :lol

[RashoFan]

I'm in Corpus for work visiting clients all week, but they're closing up shop Thursday and heading out of town. Work's flying me back to Dallas tomorrow evening so I can get out of the way of all this.

Maybe I should see if I can stay and Manny can come down and we can report to Spurstalk in the eye of the storm :lol

2 drunk guys and a hurricane?

[RashoFan]

New model run is out and the track is alinging and shifting further west...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels.gif

IIRC, the GFDL in the Gustav storm was pretty darn good with the projected tract. IF the same holds true, the GFDL predicts San Antonio is going to get Fuuuuuukkkkked.

[Das Texan]

san antonio wont get fuuuuuuuukkkkked from a category 2 or weak category 3 storm.

[scott]

People are jumping on a guy named "...IsGod" for being condecending? Damn, it's like 1997 all over again.

PS: Manny is a assdouche

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

2 drunk guys and a hurricane?

Hellz yeah. :drunk Good times. Though the hotel I'm at right now is right on Water Street, and is all glass on both sides :/ Don't think this is the place to be.

[Anti.Hero]

Stay away from Rockport, shit!

[RashoFan]

san antonio wont get fuuuuuuuukkkkked from a category 2 or weak category 3 storm.

Flooding Das...flooding. You know how people think that they can cross that water flowing over the road and they waon't get hurt....

And I get to sit on the sidelines, eating popcorn and shouting out "way to go...DUMBASS"

[Das Texan]

Flooding Das...flooding. You know how people think that they can cross that water flowing over the road and they waon't get hurt....

And I get to sit on the sidelines, eating popcorn and shouting out "way to go...DUMBASS"




well thats just a usual fucked up situation then.


:downspin:

[RashoFan]

Manny has his opinions, CH has his opinions, Paki has his own opinions...
They also have assholes too, can everyone just carrying on??

[RashoFan]

well thats just a usual fucked up situation then.


:downspin:

:lol
wanna pull up a chair, snack on some popcorn and shout at stupid people with me??

[Das Texan]

:lol
wanna pull up a chair, snack on some popcorn and shout at stupid people with me??


its always fun taking bets on who will be the first moron to get trapped after going around the barricades.

[Slomo]

2 drunk guys and a hurricane?

:tu

Do it, I'll gladly sponsor the purchase of a webcam :lol

[MannyIsGod]

:tu

Do it, I'll gladly sponsor the purchase of a webcam :lol

Maybe if AHF and I sell advertising on our rain slickers we can get this financed!

[BacktoBasics]

If there's anyone on this forum who I feel suffers fools about as "well", its you so I almost take that as a compliment.
I'm not sure I understand exactly what you just said but you have no clue how much I truely love and appreciate you.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm not sure I understand exactly what you just said but you have no clue how much I truely love and appreciate you.

I basically said stupid people annoy the fuck out of you too.

You gonna do a live shot with the horizontal rain at your house?

[BacktoBasics]

I basically said stupid people annoy the fuck out of you too.

You gonna do a live shot with the horizontal rain at your house?I'm gonna probably leave. I'm not one of those redneck jackasses that think their gonna have a storm party and not get their mullet blown clear the fuck off. I live in a top floor apartment and my wife's family lives in a house that will probably lose its roof within the first 2 minutes. I just flat have no where to go where I'd feel safe riding out a Cat 2 or even a 1.

I imagine I'd go to SA and visit my Grandfather.

I'm hoping this doesn't come here. It would stiffle my entire plan I laid out over the last 5 years. I'd probably have to find a new job and good paying jobs don't exactly grow on trees.

[BacktoBasics]

oh yeah I do hate stupid people.

I'm not going back and reading whatever it is that happened but I would be shocked if it was anything other than some people completely misunderstanding your point and just hurling away simply to argue with you....because its you. No doubt you're a condecending prick but I understand that you angle things just like I do.

Its nearly impossible to get anyone on this forum to:

"Make a point and make your arguement because you're gonna have to prove me wrong beyond just running insults out".

How many times have we had to request that on this forum?

[CosmicCowboy]

I'm gonna probably leave. I'm not one of those redneck jackasses that think their gonna have a storm party and not get their mullet blown clear the fuck off. I live in a top floor apartment and my wife's family lives in a house that will probably lose its roof within the first 2 minutes. I just flat have no where to go where I'd feel safe riding out a Cat 2 or even a 1.

I imagine I'd go to SA and visit my Grandfather.

I'm hoping this doesn't come here. It would stiffle my entire plan I laid out over the last 5 years. I'd probably have to find a new job and good paying jobs don't exactly grow on trees.

Hope that doesn't happen.

I think the two o'clock update is gonna show this bad boy going to Brownsville/Mexico.

[Trainwreck2100]

He's gonna hit the Rio Grande area

Rollin'... Rollin'... Rollin' on a rivah... DOOT, doot doot doot, DOOT, doot doot doot

[AlamoSpursFan]

Another hurricane, another hosing in the rain gauge.

[AA2120]

nooooooooooo
not down here again!!

fuckin dolly knocked out my power for like 20 hrs...sucked ass....

[tlongII]

Ike Diogu is a welcome addition to the Portland Trail Blazers.

[RashoFan]

Damn, the models showing a landfall in the valley now.
Standby to standby is all I can say about hurricanes in general ESPECIALLY Ike.

If I can, I report "Live from the San Antonio EOC" when I'm there...

[Cry Havoc]

I was a dick to Cry. There's no denying that. I lost patience with his ridiculous arguments. It was almost as annoying as being called out by you for being condescending because someone doesn't agree with me which is bullshit. There's a difference between getting annoyed by someone who keeps spouting off complete bullshit and being condescending to someone who has a different opinion. Notice how CC had a different opinion and I didn't say shit to him? Thanks for calling me out though. How long have you been waiting to do that?

These "ridiculous arguments" you talk about were being espoused by individuals with more meteorology education than you or I have, Manny. I saw the points they made and agreed with them. Ike didn't retain annular characteristics for more than 12-14 hours, but they were there. No hurricane to my knowledge has been annular for the duration of it's lifetime. By the time our disagreement had picked up steam, Ike was already returning to standard garden-variety hurricane.

It's interesting that you would use "prediction" to absolve yourself of anything you say. So to be clear, you cannot be wrong, because you left a chance (however small) of yourself to be wrong when forecasting a system? Despite the fact that it did in fact make it into the Gulf, you're still right and I'm wrong because you made a supposedly obvious call? If only sports bookies were afforded the same kind of leeway when betting on the Monday Night Football game!

And if it was so unlikely that Ike would go where he has, then why is there an entire thread full of posts on Ike in the accuweather forums stating precisely why he wouldn't curve out to the Atlantic? Go look it up. They aren't just pissing into the wind to see the color of their own urine over there. Of course, with a name like mike18xx, how much could they know? :toast

I've been as diplomatic as possible about this and have even restrained from posting in this thread for a while. However, since you are going to continue calling me out, I'm going to respond that you are not the only person in the internet qualified to talk about weather and forecasting. If you want to continue being a dick to me, then by all means go for it, but it's becoming quite clear to everyone else here exactly what just happened: Ike is in the Gulf, and you are getting seriously defensive. Chill out, it's just a hurricane. They're hard as hell to predict anyway and without the models we would likely all be taking shots in the dark. If the high shifts to the East faster, you end up making the call and I look like I have no clue what I'm talking about. I don't see a reason to take it personally. Then again, I don't mind being wrong very much... that happens too frequently for me to get upset about. :downspin:

Having said all that, Manny and I are big boys. You guys making comments about it being a "bitch fight" and so on, let me remind you: You're posting on an internet forum about a basketball team, in a thread about weather, trying to act like a tough guy. You're really getting it down pat there. It does not make you cooler when you respond to a thread that's far over your head with, "omg itz teh Nturnet u guyz r gay". But hey, if that's what boosts your self-confidence.... :wakeup

[1369]

Updated 10 a.m. model...

http://www.crownweather.com/al09windzoom.gif

[BacktoBasics]

Updated 10 a.m. model...

http://www.crownweather.com/al09windzoom.gifFuck

[1369]

Fuck

I figured you'd be less than enthuastic about that.

Think about this though, load up as many "Jerry Cans" of unleaded you can find in your ride and while you're stuck on 37 you can get an eaasy $50-$100 a can from all the saps who didn't fill up before they got out of town.

Seriously though, if this holds true, GTFO.

[BacktoBasics]

I'm not worried about getting the fuck out. I'm more worried about the aftermath.

Have any of these forcasts proven to be this accurate this far out?

[1369]

I'm not worried about getting the fuck out. I'm more worried about the aftermath.

Have any of these forcasts proven to be this accurate this far out?

I wouldn't think so, too many variables in the mix.

[SpursWoman]

I'm not worried about getting the fuck out. I'm more worried about the aftermath.

Have any of these forcasts proven to be this accurate this far out?


I think since forecasts are to be taken as absolutes around here apparently, I'd suggest you wait another day or two before you start re-stratergerizing your game plan. :spin

[CosmicCowboy]

I figured you'd be less than enthuastic about that.

Think about this though, load up as many "Jerry Cans" of unleaded you can find in your ride and while you're stuck on 37 you can get an eaasy $50-$100 a can from all the saps who didn't fill up before they got out of town.



He MIGHT be able to get ONE in that Vette.

[BacktoBasics]

I wouldn't leave till it was 48 hours out. At that point even if they predict a hit and its off a little I'm still safe. I'm not going to ride out the edge of a storm.

[BacktoBasics]

He MIGHT be able to get ONE in that Vette.
I hate to do it but the vette is probably going to be left behind since I have full coverage on it.

[CosmicCowboy]

I hate to do it but the vette is probably going to be left behind since I have full coverage on it.

Drop it off in a parking garage on the way out of town.

[Anti.Hero]

The last big hurricane to hit Rockport, I was fishing the night before until 1 a.m. and it took 7 hours to get back to S.A. :lol:

[Cry Havoc]

I'm not worried about getting the fuck out. I'm more worried about the aftermath.

Have any of these forcasts proven to be this accurate this far out?

It really depends. Some hurricanes have widely divergent models that make a clear landfall path difficult to ascertain. This one has been rapidly narrowing though. I haven't had a chance to look at the latest data, as my internet was down yesterday.

You're right though, the aftermath will likely be far worse than the actual storm. I have friends in Louisiana who are just now getting power back and say people are getting in fistfights over bread. There are no supplies and because it's not national news the feds don't feel compelled to help out too much even after telling people they can go back to their homes.

Still though, I would not recommend ANYONE staying in the path of a category 3 hurricane. That's a minimal tornado that's a couple hundred miles wide (though the worst of the winds obviously won't be, the duration of wind can be lethal) and it should be treated as such.

[MannyIsGod]

3 days out the average error is within 100nm. We're still a bit more than 3 days out from landfall I think, but its getting really really close. This is the NHC forcast track though, not any particular model.

[CosmicCowboy]

I still think it's going further south but they could still get hammered with the tidal surge...Thats the real killer in these storms anyway...An 8-10 foot tidal surge could wipe Port Aransas right off the map.

[Shelly]

Still though, I would not recommend ANYONE staying in the path of a category 3 hurricane. That's a minimal tornado that's a couple hundred miles wide (though the worst of the winds obviously won't be, the duration of wind can be lethal) and it should be treated as such.

Even as it moves inland, it can trigger tornadoes. Correct?

[SpursWoman]

Gustav triggered over 50 tornados once it hit land. That's horrifying to imagine. :wow

[ashbeeigh]

Even as it moves inland, it can trigger tornadoes. Correct?

Correct. I don't remember it happening, but apparently there was a tornado over by Babcock/De Zavala way back in the day due to tropical storm.

[Shelly]

hmmm....maybe now is a good time to clean out that hall closet!

[BacktoBasics]

If it makes its way to Corpus with a direct hit is this more likely to move west or south vs. moving on into SA?

[CosmicCowboy]

Heres the 2:00 model updates. doesn't look good.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

[JudynTX]

:wow I wasn't taking Ike serious, but now I guess I should.

[MannyIsGod]

These "ridiculous arguments" you talk about were being espoused by individuals with more meteorology education than you or I have, Manny. I saw the points they made and agreed with them. Ike didn't retain annular characteristics for more than 12-14 hours, but they were there. No hurricane to my knowledge has been annular for the duration of it's lifetime. By the time our disagreement had picked up steam, Ike was already returning to standard garden-variety hurricane.

It's interesting that you would use "prediction" to absolve yourself of anything you say. So to be clear, you cannot be wrong, because you left a chance (however small) of yourself to be wrong when forecasting a system? Despite the fact that it did in fact make it into the Gulf, you're still right and I'm wrong because you made a supposedly obvious call? If only sports bookies were afforded the same kind of leeway when betting on the Monday Night Football game!

And if it was so unlikely that Ike would go where he has, then why is there an entire thread full of posts on Ike in the accuweather forums stating precisely why he wouldn't curve out to the Atlantic? Go look it up. They aren't just pissing into the wind to see the color of their own urine over there. Of course, with a name like mike18xx, how much could they know? :toast

I've been as diplomatic as possible about this and have even restrained from posting in this thread for a while. However, since you are going to continue calling me out, I'm going to respond that you are not the only person in the internet qualified to talk about weather and forecasting. If you want to continue being a dick to me, then by all means go for it, but it's becoming quite clear to everyone else here exactly what just happened: Ike is in the Gulf, and you are getting seriously defensive. Chill out, it's just a hurricane. They're hard as hell to predict anyway and without the models we would likely all be taking shots in the dark. If the high shifts to the East faster, you end up making the call and I look like I have no clue what I'm talking about. I don't see a reason to take it personally. Then again, I don't mind being wrong very much... that happens too frequently for me to get upset about. :downspin:

Having said all that, Manny and I are big boys. You guys making comments about it being a "bitch fight" and so on, let me remind you: You're posting on an internet forum about a basketball team, in a thread about weather, trying to act like a tough guy. You're really getting it down pat there. It does not make you cooler when you respond to a thread that's far over your head with, "omg itz teh Nturnet u guyz r gay". But hey, if that's what boosts your self-confidence.... :wakeup

Did metmike18xx write this post for you? Any meteorologist who called Ike annular is piss poor at what they do. But I tell you what. Why don't we wait for the NHC post season write up on the storm. If they make any mention of Ike being an annular storm you can change my title to anything you want.

You're right on the next subject; I can't be right or wrong in a situation where I didn't make a prediction. I didn't say you were wrong in this situation, did I? My assertion of you being wrong was in no way related to you saying it was going to get into the Gulf. It was completely related to your arguments over the structure of Ike and the forecast of Gustav. I made that extremely clear in my posts and have continued to do so. That you, Paki, and Luvbones can't discern that is not of my concern. If you want to continue the Sports bookie analogy keep in mind I never placed a bet on the game I merely gave you the pregame odds. Its like me telling you the Spurs are a 6:1 favorite to win the next game and you telling me I'm wrong when they don't. Do you see how foolish that is?

As for metmike, why does this guy have any credibility? I know you keep comparing him to me and my name, but I wouldn't expect you to try to convince anyone of a point using something I posted and reference my screen name. I never CLAIMED to be a credible source on the subject and pointing that out doesn't automatically lend your chosen source credibility.

I got defensive with Paki because I thought him calling me out was completely out of line. Of course when I defend myself It shows that while I'm a know it all who is condescending I also have a low self esteem. Its great, I'm labeled an egomaniac with low self esteem by our in house psychologists. Probably stayed at a holiday inn express.

Anyway, I did notice that you weren't posting in the thread and I agree I was over the top with the insults against you. For the most part I think you're an intelligent person who makes good weather posts but I found (and still find) your annular arguments ridiculous as well as your analysis of the Gustav forecast. But hey, just like I never made a prediction on where Ike was going, I never claimed to be anything but a dickhead.

[RashoFan]

Correct. I don't remember it happening, but apparently there was a tornado over by Babcock/De Zavala way back in the day due to tropical storm.

Oh yeah that happened in '88 or 89' I think it was from hurricane Gilbert ...IIRC

A tornando went IN BETWEEN the 2 hospitals in MEDCTR...University and the VA....
that was some major pucker factor right there.

[MannyIsGod]

On a note with evacuations, I don't think everyone has to leave a hurricane landfall area unless its a 4 or 5. I do think if you're in any type of low lying area or non sturdy structure then you should go. That being said most modern homes that are not in immediate danger from storm surge are reasonably safe to ride out 1,2 and 3s. The majority of the real threat from hurricanes are not the winds but the storm surge.

Tornadoes are an issue with landfalling storms, but the tornadoes that spawn are usually extremely weak and short lived. Typically they will not destroy a modern house but they will leave it with roof damage.

[BacktoBasics]

There's maybe 10 modern houses in Corpus.

[MannyIsGod]

Well then I guess the richers don't have to leave.

[BacktoBasics]

Corpus is strange. Its not segregated like SA. Some nice homes scattered pretty much everywhere inbetween the junk. Then the South is starting to develop like SA's northside did.

BTW great melting job by all. Keep up the work.

[AlamoSpursFan]

Forget what I said earlier about getting hosed in the rain gauge...

:wow

[CosmicCowboy]

Heres a good read about the hurricane of 1919 that followed an eerily similar track in the same time of year.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/research/hurrhistory/1919/index.html

[ashbeeigh]

well, based on the 2 o'clock update it looks like I need to get my windshield wipers fixed.

[MannyIsGod]

B2B just stay tuned dude. I honestly don't believe its going to be as bad as the media machine is making it out to be, but you just have to be aware of what is actually going on. Its a large broad storm area wise but that doesn't mean its going to be a huge killer storm when it makes landfall. I have no idea how it will effect winter Texans, but those motherfuckers have to go SOMEWHERE and I promise you that the places where the money goes get fixed first so I doubt their facilities or whatever the fuck those northern blue hairs use will get attention right away.

[tlongII]

Did metmike18xx write this post for you? Any meteorologist who called Ike annular is piss poor at what they do. But I tell you what. Why don't we wait for the NHC post season write up on the storm. If they make any mention of Ike being an annular storm you can change my title to anything you want.

You're right on the next subject; I can't be right or wrong in a situation where I didn't make a prediction. I didn't say you were wrong in this situation, did I? My assertion of you being wrong was in no way related to you saying it was going to get into the Gulf. It was completely related to your arguments over the structure of Ike and the forecast of Gustav. I made that extremely clear in my posts and have continued to do so. That you, Paki, and Luvbones can't discern that is not of my concern. If you want to continue the Sports bookie analogy keep in mind I never placed a bet on the game I merely gave you the pregame odds. Its like me telling you the Spurs are a 6:1 favorite to win the next game and you telling me I'm wrong when they don't. Do you see how foolish that is?

As for metmike, why does this guy have any credibility? I know you keep comparing him to me and my name, but I wouldn't expect you to try to convince anyone of a point using something I posted and reference my screen name. I never CLAIMED to be a credible source on the subject and pointing that out doesn't automatically lend your chosen source credibility.

I got defensive with Paki because I thought him calling me out was completely out of line. Of course when I defend myself It shows that while I'm a know it all who is condescending I also have a low self esteem. Its great, I'm labeled an egomaniac with low self esteem by our in house psychologists. Probably stayed at a holiday inn express.

Anyway, I did notice that you weren't posting in the thread and I agree I was over the top with the insults against you. For the most part I think you're an intelligent person who makes good weather posts but I found (and still find) your annular arguments ridiculous as well as your analysis of the Gustav forecast. But hey, just like I never made a prediction on where Ike was going, I never claimed to be anything but a dickhead.

An egomaniac with low self esteem seems counter intuitive to me. I would just call you an asshole.

[MannyIsGod]

That was my point.

[AlamoSpursFan]

I think I'm gonna need a bigger rain gauge...

:lol

[ATRAIN]

3 days out the average error is within 100nm. We're still a bit more than 3 days out from landfall I think, but its getting really really close. This is the NHC forcast track though, not any particular model.

Manny where do you think it will hit as of right now?

[ATRAIN]

hey B2B if it hits, leave your wife and kids in SA and come up to Austin so we can get fucked up downtown.

[Shelly]

Too bad you didn't move to Michigan, Manny. I'm sure you'd have a blast predicting snow!

I keed, I keed.

[smeagol]

Manny where do you think it will hit as of right now?

(puts the trap, places the bait . . . and runs away)

[ATRAIN]

(puts the trap, places the bait . . . and runs away)

I didn't go anywhere, I asked Manny his honest opinion on the last 3 TS/hurricaes. I really want to know what he thinks. This is the only topic where I value Manny's opinions and he knows that (or he should).

[MannyIsGod]

Too bad you didn't move to Michigan, Manny. I'm sure you'd have a blast predicting snow!

I keed, I keed.

I'm going next weekend. I've never been so far north. I predict I'll probably die.

[BacktoBasics]

hey B2B if it hits, leave your wife and kids in SA and come up to Austin so we can get fucked up downtown.Would be fun.

[MannyIsGod]

Its gonna hit the coast.

[ATRAIN]

Its gonna hit the coast.

DUDE lol if you want to pm me where you think its going to land, that would be cool. I am just concerned for my family in the RGV, they are still recovering from fucking Dolly.

[BacktoBasics]

Its gonna hit the coast.:lmao I see what you did there.

[Shelly]

I'm going next weekend. I've never been so far north. I predict I'll probably die.

:lol

You need to go when the leaves start turning. You'll fall in love with autumn.

[travis2]

DUDE lol if you want to pm me where you think its going to land, that would be cool. I am just concerned for my family in the RGV, they are still recovering from fucking Dolly.


I am pretty sure I know what you mean...at least, I hope I do...:wow

[ATRAIN]

I am pretty sure I know what you mean...at least, I hope I do...:wow

LOL I guess I should say from Dolly Fucking them.

[MannyIsGod]

Pun intended? I like evergreens. WTF is so special about dead leaves?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

B2B just stay tuned dude. I honestly don't believe its going to be as bad as the media machine is making it out to be.

You're going to die, fuckers.

[PakiDan]

Please don't be so condescending to me, Paki. I resent you thinking you know more about life than me. I think you should apologize.

I apologize.

.... buit just for your info, I may know a *little* more about life.... I've been through school, been married, had 2 kids, been divorced, been to every state in the union, been sued, been in jail, had my heart broken, literally had my heart broken, been in love, and many many more, so please don't assume you are the end all authority on anything and everything.

[SpursWoman]

A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19613.asp) of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

[spursfan09]

are we going to really be feeling these hurricane cat 2 winds here in SA?

[Los Spurs]

I wasn't paying much attention to this Hurricane Ike, until my cousin called me a few minutes ago and told me that they are going to open the Freeman Coliseum as a shelter.

[JudynTX]

The number of buses that have arrived in San Antonio to help evacuate residents along the Texas Gulf Coast fleeing from Hurricane Ike has increased to nearly 400, officials said Tuesday.

Hundreds more are expected as the state continues to rev up its preparations for Ike’s landfall, now forecast to land somewhere near Corpus Christi on Saturday morning. Officials caution, however, that forecast can change as Ike churns away from Cuba — where it hit this weekend as a Category 3 storm — and into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

In preparation for Ike’s landfall, the San Antonio Volunteer Organizations Active in Disaster, or SAVOAD, opened up a volunteer operations center at Freeman Coliseum to aid in the recruitment of volunteers interested in helping those fleeing from the hurricane.

Those wishing to help are asked to go to the coliseum’s Frontier Room, beginning at noon Wednesday to register for volunteer opportunities. The registration process includes the completion of an application, background check and orientation. Volunteers must be at least 18 years old, bring a photo id and come prepared with a schedule of availability. For more information or directions to the Freeman Coliseum, contact the Volunteer Operations Center at (210) 224-5365.

Local officials also made pleas Tuesday for medical professionals to volunteer to help assist evacuees arriving in San Antonio. Everybody from doctors to nurses to medical students to mental health professionals wishing to volunteer were encouraged to call the Medical Volunteer Coordination Center at (210) 233-5910.

Ike is currently a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, but officials anticipate it could regain its strength as it moves into the gulf and make landfall along the Texas coast as a Category 3 storm.

The threat prompted Gov. Rick Perry Tuesday to order the pre-deployment of state resources as Ike continues to barrel toward Texas.

“We continue to closely monitor this storm and are preparing accordingly for its potential impact to our communities,” Perry said. “Hurricane Ike is making its way to the gulf as we speak, and it is imperative that residents pay attention to this storm, heed warnings from their local leaders and take the steps necessary to protect their families, homes and businesses.”

On Monday, Perry issued a disaster declaration covering 88 Texas counties, including Bexar and surrounding counties. Local authorities mobilized the San Antonio Emergency Operations Center and began preparations to become a shelter city again for the second week in a row. Last week, San Antonio served as both a shelter and staging area for emergency personnel responding to Hurricane Gustav’s threat.

One local shelter is already open and prepared to house up to 2,000 ambulance and bus drivers and other emergency personnel responding to Ike.

Orlando Hernandez, Bexar County’s emergency management coordinator, said he anticipates up to 1,300 buses and between 250 and 300 ambulances to arrive in San Antonio, where they will wait to learn if, when and where they will be deployed.

Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesman Peter Lembessis said FEMA officials who came here for Hurricane Gustav didn’t leave and would continue to stay in San Antonio in preparation for Hurricane Ike.

Lembessis also said FEMA has pre-positioned people, equipment and supplies throughout Texas, including helping staff additional emergency operation centers in Austin, Denton and McAllen.

He said aside from San Antonio, other staging facilities were in Austin, Beaumont, Dallas, Denton, Fort Worth, Houston, Lufkin, Marshall and Tyler.

And the state of Oklahoma has agreed to shelter up to 12,500 evacuees with medical special needs.

Officials with the San Antonio Emergency Operations Center said in addition to the buses being stationed at Port San Antonio, 22 ambulances were sent to Beeville, where they will await the storm.

Electronic signs on the state’s freeways have already been programmed to urge residents along the coast to fuel up vehicles in preparation for Ike.

People who cannot self-evacuate can let responders know who and where they are before an emergency or evacuation takes place by calling 211.

link (http://http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local_news/Ike_preparation_ramps_up_here.html)

[ShoogarBear]

Hey, B2B, you going to post some life lessons on How to Choose a Place to Live?

[MannyIsGod]

I apologize.

.... buit just for your info, I may know a *little* more about life.... I've been through school, been married, had 2 kids, been divorced, been to every state in the union, been sued, been in jail, had my heart broken, literally had my heart broken, been in love, and many many more, so please don't assume you are the end all authority on anything and everything.

Thats a really really really really really really presumptuous post. I wasn't aware your life experiences meant you knew more about life than mine. Thanks for the clarification though.

Man Paki, for someone trying to act like I ever claim to be the end all authority on anything much less everything (find me a place where I've done that and I'll buy you a cookie, a big one) you sure do come off as a condescending know it all. Kinda funny. But I'll talk to you later, Pot.