Will Duncan Be Worth $21.3 Million In 2012?

[duncan228]

This is a blog, and I know we're trying not to post Bleacher Report type stuff, but I'm curious about people's thoughts on the piece. Forgive me, and please, indulge me. Thanks. :) (The site is Daily Basketball)

Thoughts?

Will Duncan be worth $21.3m in 2012? (http://www.dailybasketball.com/2008/09/03/will-duncan-be-worth-213m-in-2012.html)
By Jarrad Todd

Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward the game has ever seen. He is a perennial Allstar and MVP candidate. He has won four championship rings and will be inducted into the Hall of Fame. But will Tim Duncan be worth $21.3 million in 2012? The short answer - no.

During last season Duncan signed an extension that will see him don the Spur’s silver and black until 2012. At the time the general consensus was he did the Spurs a favour, by electing not to sign for the maximum allowable amount. However, the fact remains that he will be owed $62 million from 2010 to 2012, with a whopping $21.3m owed in the final year.

If Duncan really was genuine in his desire to assist with rebuilding he should have negotiated an extension that would pay him max money over the next year or two, then gradually decrease, so by 2012 his salary would be $12-13 million. This would have allowed the Spurs to re-tool around their aging, but relatively inexpensive big man.

As great as he still is, there is no doubt that by 2012 the Spurs will regret the extension that allows a 36 year old Duncan to eat up a third of their entire salary. Case in point, Shaquille O’Neal. When Shaq was traded to the Miami Heat in 2004, a year later at the age of 33 he signed a massive five year extension totalling $100 million. Seemed like the smart thing to do at the time, but two years and one championship later, they tried desperately to rid themselves of his rapidly diminishing skills and cap-killing contract. Fortunately for them, Phoenix took the bait and is now stuck with him for two more years at $40 million. Whilst it is unlikely that Duncan will meet the same fate as Shaquille O’Neal, due to the respect afforded to him by the city of San Antonio (and rightfully so), the San Antonio Spurs will ultimately suffer as a result.

One would have to assume that Duncan’s play will gradually fall off over the coming years, and by 2012 there is little doubt he will be nearing the end. But such a decline is natural, especially when you consider the amount of basketball his body has endured over the last decade.

So why did the Spurs feel it was necessary to pay him top dollar over the next five years, when his game is sure to decline? My guess, it was more of a ‘thanks for the memories’ gift, rather than good basketball business.

Over the last decade the Spurs have prided themselves on making smart basketball decisions both on and off the floor, which has directly led to their success. However, through the trading of Luis Scola, the passing up of legitimate talent in the 2008 Draft (Arthur, Greene, Chalmers, Chris Douglas-Roberts), and the overly generous extension to Duncan’s contract, it seems as though complacency has finally crept in to the San Antonio front office. These decisions will haunt the Spurs over the coming years and will ultimately lead to their gradual decline.

[ChuckD]

Meh. Tim Duncan will no doubt, even at 35 heading into his last season, be worth $21M. If they want to look at regrettable big man extensions, put a microscope up Shaq's ample overpaid ass.

[spursfan09]

yeah newsflash the spurs will gradually decline no matter. Duncan is one of those once in a lifetime players for the Spurs. Ofcourse the Spurs will decline once he gets older and retire. Oh and to me he is worth 21.3! If KG was worth whatever he was when the twolves were not even making the playoffs, then I think Tim deserves what he gets.

[Kamala]

Hells yeah!

[baseline bum]

Yes

[E20]

Maybe. I don't know yet.

[dbreiden83080]

Marbury has been making like 20 mil a year forever and he has never been worth it. Duncan will still be worth it for sure. Spurs will be in the title hunt i believe until he retires.

[Udokafan05]

Spurs should pay duncan the rest of his life for all he's done.

[spursfan09]

Is it too much to say that the day he announces his retirement will be one of the worst days in my life... I said one of the worst, not the worst.

[Dex]

How can one put a worth on a person?

You can't like....own the beach, man. This is God's beach.

[spursfan09]

How can one put a worth on a person?

You can't like....own the beach, man. This is God's beach.

What movie is that from?

[JamStone]

Probably not, but I don't think many Spurs fans or even people in the organization will have a problem with him making that much. Even if he's not worth it then, it was a great investment at the time considering everything he's meant to the team and community.

[Tully365]

I wouldn't make any bets based on this article. I don't remember the poster who made the Nostradumbass joke last month, but it probably applies here too.

For starters, Arthur, Greene, Chalmers, Chris Douglas-Roberts haven't proven a single thing yet except that two of them are good at scoring weed in a new city, which isn't a particularly rare skill, and all of them didn't do what was necessary to impress teams less talented than the Spurs to draft them before they got passed over by San Antonio.

Duncan's skill set of finesse and intelligence is much closer to Kareem's than to Shaq's, and Kareem showed a much smaller decline between the ages of 30 and 35 than Shaq. He actually had a slightly better year statistically at age 37 than he did at 35 & 36. Shaq's decline from 30 to 35 has been steady and dramatic. Look at video of Shaq when he was with Orlando. His transformation is almost Barry Bonds-like (no, I'm not making a steroid accusation). Shaq is so big now that it looks like he ate Danny Fortson and Oliver Miller. Duncan has essentially the same body that he had in 2000.

[rj215]

Easiest question ever...yes! Sure he isn't going to average 23ppg and 12rpg but the thing that makes Tim a special basketball player is that he's smart and can adapt to whatever type of player the team needs him to be. He's gone from being the leading scorer and a good help defender to a defensive ace and more of a facilitator on offense.

[duncan228]

Is it too much to say that the day he announces his retirement will be one of the worst days in my life... I said one of the worst, not the worst.

It's not too much to say from where I am. Duncan is the reason I watch this game, he has been for a long time. I'll still watch after he retires, I love the game, but I know I'll never watch the same way.

[intlspurshk]

I don't know why people evaluating the last year salary against expected performance in the last year when the contract was signed for many years to begin with.

The cashflows could be front-loaded or end-loaded. So, the evaluation should be based on the performance of the players over the years under contract.

And for a player like Duncan which is so critical, you have to consider the impact of keeping him in the team and his appeal in attracting other players. We do not even count the damage to public image if SPURS underpay Duncan.

People writing this thing is dumb unless the team is considering to trade Duncan, then you could compare what you paid for what you get.

[duncan228]

Oh, I agree that Duncan will be worth the money. (Did anyone think I'd say he wouldn't be? :lol)

As has been pointed out, Duncan's game has never been dependent on athleticism alone. His skills will hold, if he stays healthy, through his contract. What he brings to this team is worth every penny.

[smrattler]

Pay the man. He's built a HOF career on being worth every penny he's paid. A safe investment IMO.

[Mister Sinister]

Oh, I agree that Duncan will be worth the money. (Did anyone think I'd say he wouldn't be? :lol)

As has been pointed out, Duncan's game has never been dependent on athleticism alone. His skills will hold, if he stays healthy, through his contract. What he brings to this team is worth every penny.
Skrull!

[angelbelow]

i dont regret it, his leadership will be better, his defense wont fall off too much either. i dont think many spurs fans regret that decision to extend him.

[InRareForm]

What a stupid question. what kind of bullshit is this? Revisionist History Hoopla, I believe.

It is way the contract game works. Real Good players are rewarded at the their end of the term. This is nothing new.

[Kevin Blackistone]

Shaq didn't bring Miami 4 titles and become the best player in the history of their organization when they signed his extension. Different situation here. This is like DRob II, just as important to keep in this tight knit Spurs family atmosphere.

[AnotherArgie]

Duncan will put 20/10 as long as he wants. He doesn't fully use his body to play great.

[John_C]

Lol, are you for real?

In the end TD's skills may decline but the leadership and intangibles he bring will remain.

You have a man who brought 4 championships, and without a fail brought this team to the playoffs year in, year out. Hell, that to me makes real basketball business sense, because you tell the fans out there that as an organization, the Spurs give credit where credit is due. And the fans will continue to support the franchise for that.

[PM5K]

Basketball isn't always about winning, and I can guarantee you that Tim Duncan has put a lot of money in HoltCats pockets...

It's a little backwards but there were a few years we were underpaying him, if there are a couple we overpay him, that's fine by me.

[Obstructed_View]

This is the price you pay for the privilege of having one of the greatest players at his position on your team.

Sounds like wishful thinking to me. What's going to happen in 2012? He's going to lose his incredible leaping ability? He's never had chronic back problems or any of the things that force people to retire. If he's not in pain and is able to run up and down the court he'll be able to defend, score with his smarts and average a double double until he's 45.



What movie is that from?

http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r142/devgodx/super-troopers-c.jpg

[Shaolin-Style]

Easily. He hasn't shown any real signs of major slippage, and I doubt by the time 2k12 rolls around he'll be that much of a different player.

[mrspurs]

If anyone gets a chance goto one of your local San Antonio Parks and rent a gym for 2hrs. It costs about 50bucks per. We've been doing it at least once a month. Grab the kids(15 and up) and hit the court and sweat. While your there ask people who really let them down this past PO's. Most of the guys young and older like myself will tell ya. It was Timmy that really let them down. 2 seasons ago once the PO's started, Timmy turned it up like a monster. That didnt happen this past one. Most of us blamed it on the lack of big help he got. But in reality Timmy got slow real quick. No he's not worth it. And all this talk while we're running up and down the court chasing the 17yr olds.

[Obstructed_View]

If anyone gets a chance goto one of your local San Antonio Parks and rent a gym for 2hrs. It costs about 50bucks per. We've been doing it at least once a month. Grab the kids(15 and up) and hit the court and sweat. While your there ask people who really let them down this past PO's. Most of the guys young and older like myself will tell ya. It was Timmy that really let them down. 2 seasons ago once the PO's started, Timmy turned it up like a monster. That didnt happen this past one. Most of us blamed it on the lack of big help he got. But in reality Timmy got slow real quick. No he's not worth it. And all this talk while we're running up and down the court chasing the 17yr olds.

Mrs. Purse thinks Timmy's lost a step, so that pretty much seals it that he hasn't.

[kobyz]

he will be 36 in 2012, i dont think he will be worth it

[DPG21920]

Was he worth the 2.9 Million he was paid when he was a rookie? No. He was worth way more. So it evens out. Also, in the NBA that is how things work. You can't just say you make 20 Million and then next year 5 million. If you want to keep players like Tim, you have to pay. Even if it is a little longer than you want. Some other team would have. Since the NBA is a win now league, yes he is worth it.

[Manufan909]

Yes. Like others have said, Tim has a finesse game, so when all his athletic prowess leaves him, he'll still be able to function the same. And hopefully in 2012 he'll be backing up Tiago and Ian!!!

[AnotherArgie]

Yes. Like others have said, Tim has a finesse game, so when all his athletic prowess leaves him, he'll still be able to function the same. And hopefully in 2012 he'll be backing up Tiago and Ian!!!

I don't want Duncan backing up anyone. That would be sad.

[Dex]

What movie is that from?

Super Troopers. :downspin:

[Manufan909]

I don't want Duncan backing up anyone. That would be sad.

You want him starting til he retires? Plus, if we have both of them in 2012, they'll have at least 6 yrs on the team between them, I think they should be the starters.

Quick question, is Tiago considered a 5?

[AnotherArgie]

You want him starting til he retires?

Yes. It may sound a litle naive, but I would like that.


Quick question, is Tiago considered a 5?

Yes sir.

[Spur-Addict]

He'll be worth 20 Mil when he's 101 years old pissing in bed pans.

[jmard5]

I don't want Duncan backing up anyone. That would be sad.

David Robinson was professional and humble enough to do that.

[duncan228]

I don't want Duncan backing up anyone. That would be sad.


David Robinson was professional and humble enough to do that.

I understand that Duncan coming off the bench will be a new experience. But Duncan, like Robinson before him, is all about winning and what's best for the team. He's never been about himself or his stats. Robinson mentored Duncan. Duncan learned from the best about character and what's important. I can deal with him coming off the bench if that's how it plays out at the end of his career.

[Manufan909]

True. I wonder if he'll retire then, or stay on as a vet for a way lower salary.

[Brutalis]

I think he is worth more.

[Brutalis]

And this blogger is an ass cracker.

[duncan228]

True. I wonder if he'll retire then, or stay on as a vet for a way lower salary.

My bet is retire. I don't see him playing beyond this contract. I hope I'm wrong but I think he'll hang them up before he loses too many steps.

[Manufan909]

Well on the bright side, we still have 4 more yrs of Tim to look forward to!!! Hopefully the last two will also have another superstar, but I don't see how that'd happen if I'm right and Pop keeps the Big 3 together over the next four years. We all know if TP stays he will definitely become the face of the franchise soon, and if he and Ian become a poor mans CP3 and Chandler a la the alley oop, that's just icing on the cake.

[Whisky Dog]

Those snozberries taste like snozberries...

[Tully365]

Was he worth the 2.9 Million he was paid when he was a rookie? No. He was worth way more. So it evens out.


:tu Good point.

[Fernando TD21]

I think Duncan is worth much more than $20 Million a year for the Spurs and for San Antonio. So when he gets old he will just be taking the amount of money he should already have.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Duncan is not an above-the-rim type of player. He could still be effective at age 45 the way he plays the game.

[Obstructed_View]

I don't want Duncan backing up anyone. That would be sad.

I think every pro basketball player should do what Robert Parish did and play until he can't make a team. That's what I would do. A 45 year old guy that's capable of making an NBA roster should enjoy every second of it.

[Spurtacus]

He's worth it, but I hope he doesn't ask for it. Take less money and bring in an all-star PF/C to compliment him before he retires.

[duncan228]

He's worth it, but I hope he doesn't ask for it. Take less money and bring in an all-star PF/C to compliment him before he retires.

Duncan is already under contract for the 21.3 million in 2011/2012. It's a done deal.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

Isn't he worth more than $21mil already? :drunk , im just kidding......

[m33p0]

trade duncan now to save us of this misery.:drunk

[Thomas82]

David Robinson was professional and humble enough to do that.

David Robinson didn't back up anybody. He started until the day he retired.

[mario23torres]

In 2012? no, in that time period I would pay him about 12 million, I just hope he does not turn out like Shaq, Shaq takes up alot of the salary cap for about what? 10 points and 5 rebaounds?

[DieMrBond]

I don't think comparing Duncan to Kareem is a good idea. In fact, comparing anybodies career longevity to Kareem is never a good idea - the man was a freak, and nobody apart from Kevin Willis has matched how long he could play (but nowhere near the same level).

I'm hoping for the best, but it's a little foolish of me to think Timmy could play to 41+

[Obstructed_View]

I don't think comparing Duncan to Kareem is a good idea. In fact, comparing anybodies career longevity to Kareem is never a good idea - the man was a freak, and nobody apart from Kevin Willis has matched how long he could play (but nowhere near the same level).

I'm hoping for the best, but it's a little foolish of me to think Timmy could play to 41+

Kareem averaged 10 and 5 when he was 41. You don't think Duncan could do that?