How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[MannyIsGod]

Whottt I'd like to hear from you especially because I doubt any other conservative poster can truly post with this and not keep me from laughing but here we go.

I'd like people to name the states McCain will win on his way to 270. Show me the states you think he'll carry and by what margin.

I'll post my breakdown shortly, Its going to take me a bit to type it up.

[Clandestino]

McCain wins Ohio, colorado, nevada, north dakota, virginia. withi winsconsin, michigan and new hampshire being toss ups. new mexico is also a toss up.

[whottt]

Whottt I'd like to hear from you especially because I doubt any other conservative poster can truly post with this and not keep me from laughing but here we go.

I'd like people to name the states McCain will win on his way to 270. Show me the states you think he'll carry and by what margin.

I'll post my breakdown shortly, Its going to take me a bit to type it up.



Are you going by polling data? Or registered voters?

#1. Never go by registered voters. It means nothing in a Presidential race.

#2. 2 weeks ago the Republicans didn't care. Whole different ball game and the polling data isn't entirely reflective of that change.

[MannyIsGod]

McCain wins Ohio, colorado, nevada, north dakota, virginia. withi winsconsin, michigan and new hampshire being toss ups. new mexico is also a toss up.

Obama leads every single state you just mentioned - some fairly comfortably - with the exception of Virgina which is pretty much a statistical tie. McCain may win some, but for him to win all of those is beyond unlikely. If either candidate has a chance to sweep those its Obama.

[MannyIsGod]

Whottt feel free to do both, but registered voters severely favors Obama.

[Clandestino]

according to your website obama does. however, they also haven't voted democratic in the past 2-3 elections. they won't this year either. republicans will have a very large turnout this year.

[MannyIsGod]

according to your website obama does. however, they also haven't voted democratic in the past 2-3 elections. they won't this year either. republicans will have a very large turnout this year.

Its not according to the website, its according to every poll conducted in those states. The websites don't collect any data, they simply compile the data from all the sources available.

[JoeChalupa]

I believe Obama is in the lead right now but only time will tell if he can maintain that lead now that Sarah is pounding the pavement.

[MannyIsGod]

I believe Obama is in the lead right now but only time will tell if he can maintain that lead now that Sarah is pounding the pavement.

Stop posting or I swear I'll vote for McCain.

[JoeChalupa]

Stop posting or I swear I'll vote for McCain.

My voice of reason will not be silenced during this crucial election for NOW is the time to let our voices be heard across the land that we will not allow another 4 years of a republican led administration that has taken us down a path to nowhere. Wake up America!!!!

[smeagol]

Stop posting or I swear I'll vote for McCain.

:lmao

[JoeChalupa]

I don't care who you vote for as long as you vote!!

[MannyIsGod]

Safe States. These are states that are not in play no matter how you slice it up.

Obama

California 55
Washington 11
Minnesota 10
Iowa 7
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Vermont 3
Massachusetts 12
Rhode Island 4
Connecticut 7
Maryland 10
Washington DC 3
Hawaii 4

McCain

Alaska 3
Idaho 4
Wyoming 3
Utah 5
Nebraska 5
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Arkansas 6
Louisiana 9
Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
Mississippi 6
Alabama 9
South Carolina 8

Obama Total EV : 151
McCain Total EV: 90

States that are basically a lock: These states are polling closer but really (regardless of Whottt's pipe dreams) places like NY and TX are not in play.

Obama:

Oregon 7
New Mexico 5
Wisconsin 10
Michigan 17
Pennsylvania 21
New York 31
New Jersey 15
Delaware 3

McCain

Arizona 10
Texas 34
Missouri 11
Georgia 15
West Virgina 5

Obama Total: 109 (260)
McCain Total: 75 (165)

So - with the states that are all reasonably safe to go the way they are polling currently, Obama is running 10 EVs shy of a win and McCain is running 105 short of a win. This puts a shit ton of pressure for McCain to sweep virtually every battle ground state there is left. With only so much time and money, this is extremely unlikely to happen

Battlegrounds:

Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
Virgina 13
North Carolina 15
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4

These are all technically current battle grounds. That being said, I think its safe to say Florida is not in serious contention. McCain should carry that state. I also think Obama will likely carry New Hamphsire.

Out of those states, Bush won Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota and Ohio. Polling favors Obama in all of those states but lets give them to McCain.

That brings our totals to this:

Obama: 264
McCain: 229

So now we're down to these states left:

Montana, South Dakota, Indiana, Virgina and North Carolina.

The only states out of these 5 McCain can afford to lose are Montana and South Dakota. He can't afford to lose both however, because that would give Obama the 270 necessary to win the election. He also can't afford to lose either of the other 3 because that is a loss as well.

McCain must basically sweep the true battle ground states in order to win. In addition he must also win many states which are currently polling in favor of Obama. In addition because of the uncertainties of how much money McCain would have to spend he has been blowing most of his money on attack adds which have a short life span. Obama on the other hand has been building a very strong core network for his campaign. This has allowed McCain to gain ground, but it also puts Obama in a much better position to hold onto his leads with less effort in months heading up to the election. Its the equivlant of having to come back from 28 points down on the 99 Spurs.

[boutons_]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Biernutz]

Link--link ---link--

[Biernutz]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


Votes from abroad?---you have to be kidding!!!!! This has to be a Comedy Central link.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Votes from abroad?---you have to be kidding!!!!! This has to be a Comedy Central link.

Damn right!

Who'd ever think Americans in other countries would ever give a damn about voting in U.S. elections?

[MannyIsGod]

Damn right!

Who'd ever think Americans in other countries would ever give a damn about voting in U.S. elections?

Seriously! What a horrible organization for that webmaster to support. Why on earth would anyone want everyone's vote to count? Thats so unAmerican.

[PixelPusher]

Votes from abroad?---you have to be kidding!!!!! This has to be a Comedy Central link.

"Why do you hate our troops?"

[fyatuk]

The only thing that matters is Ohio and Florida. McCain needs to win both, Obama only one of those.

[Biernutz]

"Why do you hate our troops?"

You moron!!!This is not about our troops it's about anyone who has a internet connection in Eruo land. . Also --I don't recall any absentee voting now. Can the EUROS vote for our president now!!!

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Also --I don't recall any absentee voting now.

You don't?

Well, I can't help it if you're unfamiliar with basic election laws.

[ChumpDumper]

You moron!!!This is not about our troops it's about anyone who has a internet connection in Eruo land. . Also --I don't recall any absentee voting now. Can the EUROS vote for our president now!!!I would say I can't believe how stupid you are, but your stupidity is completely believable.

[whottt]

Here ya go Manny...Latest poll from Zogby themselves...you know, the same guys that predicted Kerry to win in 2004:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548


And BTW, Palin is polling more favorable than any other candidate in this election right now.

[Biernutz]

You don't?

Well, I can't help it if you're unfamiliar with basic election laws.

Who runs that web site,Kos? read the story's on the site ---Excuesss me but look where all the articles are going on that site. As election laws , just when were the absentee ballots mailed out for the November election?

[Bartleby]

The numbers from Zogby's Electoral College Map appear to support Manny's analysis:

http://www.zogby.com/50state/

[ChumpDumper]

Who runs that web site,Kos? read the story's on the site ---Excuesss me but look where all the articles are going on that site. As election laws , just when were the absentee ballots mailed out for the November election?And when does one apply for an absentee ballot?

[Biernutz]

The numbers from Zogby's Electoral College Map appear to support Manny's analysis:

http://www.zogby.com/50state/


I don't have any problem with Zogby, but you posted a old poll. Do you have a recent poll? A September poll?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

It's really not that hard to find.

https://texas.overseasvotefoundation.org/overseas/home.htm

[MannyIsGod]

The only thing that matters is Ohio and Florida. McCain needs to win both, Obama only one of those.

Not true. Obama can easily lose both of those and win this election.

[MannyIsGod]

Here ya go Manny...Latest poll from Zogby themselves...you know, the same guys that predicted Kerry to win in 2004:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548


And BTW, Palin is polling more favorable than any other candidate in this election right now.

You disappoint me Whottt. Thats a single national poll. Its pretty useless in determining what states McCain will win and what states he won't. Not to mention, you yourself pointed out how horrible Zogby's track record is.

[Bartleby]

I don't have any problem with Zogby, but you posted a old poll. Do you have a recent poll? A September poll?



Edit: My bad. You're right. It is a couple of weeks old.

[MannyIsGod]

Pollster accuracy ratings from fivethirtyeight.com

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3295/2529867241_28d60ff95a_o.png

[jochhejaam]

I don't have any problem with Zogby, but you posted a old poll. Do you have a recent poll? A September poll?

As you pointed out and bartleby confirmed, it's an old poll, with most of the data dating back 3 months.
If you click on each state you'll see that they were last updated either July 8th (32 states), July 23rd (3 states) or August 22 (11 states), <several of the New England States did not provide a date when clicked on>.


Obviously this does not take the Palin/RNC bounce into consideration.

[MannyIsGod]

As you pointed out and bartleby confirmed, it's an old poll, with most of the data dating back 3 months.
If you click on each state you'll see that they were last updated either July 8th (32 states), July 23rd (3 states) or August 22 (11 states), <several of the New England States did not provide a date when clicked on>.


Obviously this does not take the Palin/RNC bounce into consideration.

Bounces are a temporary effect of increased media exposure. They are not lasting effects on the polls.

Bounces do not win elections.

[MannyIsGod]

Also, states that are not in play will not be the focus of many polls. You won't see nearly as many polls conducted in California as you will in Ohio, for example.

[Biernutz]

Pollster accuracy ratings from fivethirtyeight.com

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3295/2529867241_28d60ff95a_o.png

FiveThirtyEight.com. That site, run by Nate Silver, a sabermetrician, is a good compendium of information and commentary. However, both our goals and methods differ on several key points. The biggest difference is that this site provides a current snapshot of where polls are today, while he attempts a prediction using many assumptions, including an enormous uncertainty about what will happen between now and November. This is a fundamental difference in what we provide. His approach does have some structural problems… The first step in estimating Electoral College outcomes is to estimate the state-by-state win probabilities. Silver’s approach is to use current polling information as well as a slew of other factors, including past reliability of individual pollsters and informed guesses about how much future change may occur. My approach is to take the last three polls only, giving a current snapshot. Therefore his site is future-oriented, while mine is focused on the here and now. To some extent this is a matter of taste (though what I provide is far more easily interpreted).
The second step is to combine these probabilities into an estimate of the likely overall outcome, measured in electoral votes (EV). Silver’s approach is to carry out thousands of simulations, then tally the simulations. That method reflects the fantasy baseball tradition, in which individual outcomes are often of great interest. However, such an approach is intrinsically imprecise because it draws a finite number of times from the distribution of possible outcomes. The Meta-Analysis on this site calculates the probability distribution of all 2.3 quadrillion possible outcomes (http://election.princeton.edu/faq/). This can be done rapidly by calculating the polynomial probability distribution, known to students as Pascal’s Triangle.


http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/04/on-a-flaw-in-fivethirtyeightcom/

[MannyIsGod]

Do you understand what that is saying or did you just copy and paste it because you think its saying something bad about fivethirtyeight.com?

Also, you should take a look at the information drawn by the site you linked. Who does he have winning?

[ChumpDumper]

Do you understand what that is saying or did you just copy and paste it because you think its saying something bad about fivethirtyeight.com?

Also, you should take a look at the information drawn by the site you linked. Who does he have winning?He's probably inclusing all those Euro votes.

[whottt]

States that are basically a lock: These states are polling closer but really (regardless of Whottt's pipe dreams) places like NY.



I'll predict a 5% swing by the next New York Poll. Obama got his ass kicked by Hillary in New York...come to think of it, she kicked his ass in California and Texas too. Over 50% of the vote in each.

But anyway...


George Bush did better against Kerry in New York in 2004 than Obama did in 2008 against Hillary, as in New York Senator Hillary Clinton, as in female Senator Hillary Clinton ....and they have 1 million or so more registered women in New York than men. That's why it's the state to produce the only other two women who have ever come close to being the President or VP...that's why Ferraro, as in former New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro, as in female Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro was put on the ticket in 1984...to beat Reagan in New York.

You got Rudy.
You got the most influential Jewish politician ever endorsing McCain. You know...the guy who was on the Democratic ticket who won New York a mere 8 years ago.
You got the women.

New York is basically a Republican state or split state except for two boroughs, Queens and Manhattan...the two biggest boroughs, and Queens swings completely without rhyme or reason...and when they do stuff like Ptaki getting elected govenor or Guilianni becoming mayor happens.


If just 650k voters swing, out of their 3 million jews, their 5 million women, out of their millions of Hillary supporters, or basically if Queens and Mahattan don't both go about 90% Democrat again, New York will go Republican.

And Palin? She's a lot more like Evis than she is any politician ever seen before in American politics.


It's going to be in play by November.

[whottt]

Obama got his ass kicked by Hillary in New York...come to think of it, she kicked his ass in California and Texas too


You know what? This actually pretty amazing when I think about it...how does someone who takes over 50% of the vote in New York, Texas and California, getting more votes than the Republican winner in each state...not get the nomination for President?


Hmmmm.....

[01.20.09]

You know what? This actually pretty amazing when I think about it...how does someone who takes over 50% of the vote in New York, Texas and California, getting more votes than the Republican winner in each state...not get the nomination for President?


Hmmmm.....

By not having winning the delegate count dumbass.

[Biernutz]

Do you understand what that is saying or did you just copy and paste it because you think its saying something bad about fivethirtyeight.com?

Also, you should take a look at the information drawn by the site you linked. Who does he have winning?

"His approach does have some structural problems…"

UH what does that mean?

[Bartleby]

It's going to be in play by November.

since it's such a toss up, you want to make a bet on it?

[Bartleby]

And Palin? She's a lot more like Evis than she is any politician ever seen before in American politics.

Elvis hid from talk shows and read everything from a teleprompter?

[whottt]

Hillary pulled 2 million votes in Texas, comparded to 600k for McCaine and she didn't get the nomination? That's the Democratic Win right there. Hell that's taking Texas blue, and every woman I know voted for Hillary by the way...the Democrats are insane for giving Obama the nomination when she pulled Texas like that.

[01.20.09]

Hillary pulled 2 million votes in Texas, comparded to 600k for McCaine and she didn't get the nomination? That's the Democratic Win right there. Hell that's taking Texas blue, and every woman I know voted for Hillary by the way...the Democrats are insane for giving Obama the nomination when she pulled Texas like that.

The didn't give the nomination to Obama he won it be winning primaries and the delegate vote. How stupid are you?

[ploto]

Obama got his ass kicked by Hillary in New York...come to think of it, she kicked his ass in California and Texas too. Over 50% of the vote in each.

But he's not running against her- he is running against McCain.

Surely, you know that she will be campaigning for Obama in New York. Women voters are smarter than you think. Women who voted for Hillary for "legitimate" reasons are not drawn to Palin and will not vote for McCain.

[Mr. Peabody]

Hillary pulled 2 million votes in Texas, comparded to 600k for McCaine and she didn't get the nomination? That's the Democratic Win right there. Hell that's taking Texas blue, and every woman I know voted for Hillary by the way...the Democrats are insane for giving Obama the nomination when she pulled Texas like that.

Your figures, much like your logic, are off.

Hillary had 1.46m

Obama had 1.36m

McCain had 701k.

[MannyIsGod]

Whottt of course Hillary pulled more votes than McCain did in Texas. The Republican nomination wasn't up for grabs unlike the Democratic nomination.

Thats not the only way you're looking at things in a very incorrect manner. Yeah, Hillar pulled a ton of votes in Texas and won the state primary (while losing the cacus - don't forget) but the state shouldn't even have been contested. She had a HUGE lead just 1 month prior to the election. On Super Tuesday Clinton had a huge lead and Texas was a given for her. One month later she somehow managed to pull a comeback win?

She did her best to lose the state and had Obama been given one more week he would have carried not only the cacus but the primary. For all the flak Obama got about not being able to close the deal people seem to forget this is a deal he never should have been in a position to close to begin with.

[ploto]

Obama will win California and NY and McCain would have won Texas anyway. You can not compare numbers across two different primaries- especially when the Democratic one was the only real race.

[MannyIsGod]

"His approach does have some structural problems…"

UH what does that mean?


It means exactly what it says, but does it mean what you want it to mean? You think that this somehow invalidates the data Nate and Sean are putting out? They have complete transparency on their methods and have almost the exact same results as the site you linked.

Whats more, Electoral-vote.com was incredibly accurate in the 2004 election. These sites and their statistical analysis are perfect (which is to say they have some structural problems) but that isn't to say the forecasts they provide are extremely accurate. It just means they aren't perfect.

If anyone has information to contradict what I've posted then by all means present it. If you have any numerical data to show why McCain is going to win certain states then by all means post it on here for us all to see. But otherwise pointing out that the analysis these sites do is not perfect in an attempt to discredit their forecasts shows an inherent lack of understanding of the way statistical modeling and simulations work.

[MannyIsGod]

I want to know how McCain is going to devote resources to win NY while doing the same for all of the other battleground states. States don't just turn on a dime. They take lots of time and effort and most importantly money. They also take a good effort on the ground which is something that McCain has not been building up nearly as well as the Obama campaign.

Sure, the RNC is saying it has money now, but it also has a royal asskicking in congressional races to deal with. They have to devote a good amount of money to that.

McCain and his campaign will have their hands full dealing with the current battle ground states without trying to add in huge markets like NY where they have virtualy no shot of winning.

[ducks]

just be sure to say obama is in trouble if that site changes after mccain kills him in debates

[florige]

just be sure to say obama is in trouble if that site changes after mccain kills him in debates



:lol That shouldn't happen.

[Biernutz]

It means exactly what it says, but does it mean what you want it to mean? You think that this somehow invalidates the data Nate and Sean are putting out? They have complete transparency on their methods and have almost the exact same results as the site you linked.

Whats more, Electoral-vote.com was incredibly accurate in the 2004 election. These sites and their statistical analysis are perfect (which is to say they have some structural problems) but that isn't to say the forecasts they provide are extremely accurate. It just means they aren't perfect.

If anyone has information to contradict what I've posted then by all means present it. If you have any numerical data to show why McCain is going to win certain states then by all means post it on here for us all to see. But otherwise pointing out that the analysis these sites do is not perfect in an attempt to discredit their forecasts shows an inherent lack of understanding of the way statistical modeling and simulations work.

The information on fivethirtyeight was compiled on August 4---many things have happened since then. The Polls are only as good as the information going in. My main focus is things change --look at the Meta-analysis of the 2004 election where Sam Wang made a mistake and said Kerry would win.
Mistakes and unknowns can happen. Ask Harry Truman.

Did you read some of the follow up links in the paper? Check it out!

[MannyIsGod]

The information on fivethirtyeight was compiled on August 4---many things have happened since then. The Polls are only as good as the information going in. My main focus is things change --look at the Meta-analysis of the 2004 election where Sam Wang made a mistake and said Kerry would win.
Mistakes and unknowns can happen. Ask Harry Truman.

Did you read some of the follow up links in the paper? Check it out!

I'm not sure what you're talking about in regards to August 4th, but 538 updates their poll figures daily and runs simulations on a daily basis. The last update was today.

In any event, I prefer electoral-vote.com for a state by state breakdown. 538 is better for the national results and trends as well as accessible raw poll data.

[whottt]

I want to know how McCain is going to devote resources to win NY while doing the same for all of the other battleground states. States don't just turn on a dime. They take lots of time and effort and most importantly money. They also take a good effort on the ground which is something that McCain has not been building up nearly as well as the Obama campaign.

Sure, the RNC is saying it has money now, but it also has a royal asskicking in congressional races to deal with. They have to devote a good amount of money to that.

McCain and his campaign will have their hands full dealing with the current battle ground states without trying to add in huge markets like NY where they have virtualy no shot of winning.

Ok so it's a long shot. Still fun to think about.....


How about this...I have a feeling that by November, you will be voting for her. You let me know how it's going.

[Nbadan]

I want to know how McCain is going to devote resources to win NY while doing the same for all of the other battleground states. States don't just turn on a dime. They take lots of time and effort and most importantly money. They also take a good effort on the ground which is something that McCain has not been building up nearly as well as the Obama campaign.

Sure, the RNC is saying it has money now, but it also has a royal asskicking in congressional races to deal with. They have to devote a good amount of money to that.

McCain and his campaign will have their hands full dealing with the current battle ground states without trying to add in huge markets like NY where they have virtualy no shot of winning.

Nice breakdown Manny...finally a post worthy of this forum...I wish McSame would dump money into NY like Whott wants...he has virtually no chance to carry the state and would take away from states he needs to carry like Ohio, Florida, Colorado and maybe Arizona...

[whottt]

But he's not running against her- he is running against McCain.

Surely, you know that she will be campaigning for Obama in New York. Women voters are smarter than you think. Women who voted for Hillary for "legitimate" reasons are not drawn to Palin and will not vote for McCain.

I didn't say women were stupid. You assume I have an agenda and I don't. I'm not a party loyalist. We'll see what the women end up doing.

[MannyIsGod]

You want to see what states the campaigns feel are in play?

Take a look at where they are spending money.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/09/07/us/0906-nat-subCAMPAIGN.jpg

[TheProfessor]

McCain will have a difficult time in the western toss-ups (Hispanics and the water issue). Florida and Michigan are extremely important for him - Obama couldn't build up his infrastructure in those states early, and there may still be pockets of resentment. What makes this map especially difficult for McCain is that he'll have to devote resources to places like Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, and Montana (where Barr and Paul are on the ballot), making the more traditional toss-ups a difficult proposition. It would be very impressive if he could overcome that.

[JoeChalupa]

It is going to get very interesting in the weeks ahead and I'll keep posting until the next election.

[PEP]

Who gives a shit about all that worthless data. Wasnt Gore and Kerry supposed to have the race locked up also, looks like the same data from the last two presidential elections.

Show me the data on who's going to win the "dead" vote this year, that's more interesting.

[Bartleby]

Show me the data on who's going to win the "dead" vote this year, that's more interesting.
That's got to be a lock for McCain since he's practically part of that demographic already.

[MannyIsGod]

Who gives a shit about all that worthless data. Wasnt Gore and Kerry supposed to have the race locked up also, looks like the same data from the last two presidential elections.

Show me the data on who's going to win the "dead" vote this year, that's more interesting.

:lol

Of course its bullshit data. It shows your boy getting his ass kicked. If you have better indicators of where the race is headed feel free to post them.

[possessed]

Easy, tiger. Let the debates play out.

[Clandestino]

since you guys love polls so much, mccain just overtook obama

[johnsmith]

Manny, if you only want to know whott's point of view, then fucking pm him you condescending douche bag.

[Yonivore]

Post the numbers Clan...

USATODAY/GALLUP: 54-44 MCCAIN AMONG LIKELY VOTERS (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm);
50-46 AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS.

[PEP]

:lol

Of course its bullshit data. It shows your boy getting his ass kicked. If you have better indicators of where the race is headed feel free to post them.

Pobresito, now your boy is getting his ass kicked according to those worthless polls. I still dont give a shit about them. But Im sure now that he's down in the polls you dont think those polls matter.

[MannyIsGod]

since you guys love polls so much, mccain just overtook obama


Post the numbers Clan...

USATODAY/GALLUP: 54-44 MCCAIN AMONG LIKELY VOTERS (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm);
50-46 AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS.


Pobresito, now your boy is getting his ass kicked according to those worthless polls. I still dont give a shit about them. But Im sure now that he's down in the polls you dont think those polls matter.

How many electoral votes does someone win for the national vote?

Still waiting for a state by state breakdown that shows a realistic McCain win.

Its fun when the facts are all on your side.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny, if you only want to know whott's point of view, then fucking pm him you condescending douche bag.

Why when I can post on the forum and get his point of view while getting a rise out of you at the same time?

[Gino]

How many electoral votes does someone win for the national vote?

Still waiting for a state by state breakdown that shows a realistic McCain win.

Its fun when the facts are all on your side.

Its very realistic to assume that he'll take Virginia and NC. If he also "keeps" Ohio, Florida and Indiana, then he's at 260. Give him Colorado and Nevada and he's at 274.

How is that unrealistic. All of these states are "swing" states that Bush carried in 04. Im giving Obama Iowa and New Mexico (that Bush won in 04).

[MannyIsGod]

Its very realistic to assume that he'll take Virginia and NC. If he also "keeps" Ohio, Florida and Indiana, then he's at 260. Give him Colorado and Nevada and he's at 274.

How is that unrealistic. All of these states are "swing" states that Bush carried in 04. Im giving Obama Iowa and New Mexico (that Bush won in 04).

You think its realistic to assume that in every state he's currently a toss up with Obama he's going to win all? Including those states that Obama is leading in the polls?

Ok, you're entitled to believe thats realistic. I disagree.


Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
Virgina 13
North Carolina 15
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4

[Gino]

You think its realistic to assume that in every state he's currently a toss up with Obama he's going to win all?


Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
Virgina 13
North Carolina 15
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4


Id be absolutely shocked if either of the Dakotas are swing states. Same with Montana.

Funny that you name those but not Michigan or New Mexico.

I guess those "swing states" don't count? :lol

RCP (which is largely viewed as the best source considering they use all scientific polls) is currently showing the following states as "toss ups":

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Michigan
Colorado
Nevada
New Mexico
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Indiana

The majority of these states are "bush states". States that Bush carried in 04.

That means that he only has to keep Bush states to win. Who knows what will happen if he starts taking "Kerry" states such as Michigan.

Regardless, its very plausible that McCain keeps Ohio, Florida, Virginai, Colorado, Nevada, NC and Indiana.

Thus, he could win the presidency without stealing a single blue state and even give up a few red states such as Iowa and New Mexico.

Any more mathematical scenarios you want to rule out? :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Id be absolutely shocked if either of the Dakotas are swing states. Same with Montana.

Funny that you name those but not Michigan or New Mexico.

I guess those "swing states" don't count? :lol

RCP (which is largely viewed as the best source considering they use all scientific polls) is currently showing the following states as "toss ups":

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Michigan
Colorado
Nevada
New Mexico
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Indiana

The majority of these states are "bush states". States that Bush carried in 04.

That means that he only has to keep Bush states to win. Who knows what will happen if he starts taking "Kerry" states such as Michigan.

Regardless, its very plausible that McCain keeps Ohio, Florida, Virginai, Colorado, Nevada, NC and Indiana.

Thus, he could win the presidency without stealing a single blue state and even give up a few red states such as Iowa and New Mexico.

Any more mathematical scenarios you want to rule out? :lol

Obama is leading North Dakota in over half the polls and is only down by four in most of the polls for South Dakota. A Republican hasn't carried MI in any of the last four cycles (not sure if it happened before that - I didn't really care enough to look) and Obama has a solid lead in every poll in that state but for posterity sake lets include it. NM has a sizeable hispanic population (who haven't been breaking for McCain) and a popular govenor who is going to campaign like crazy for Obama. Obama is also leading there in every poll. But once again, we'll include that state in the toss ups as well.

So - if we go by this then Obama has a current EV lead of 238 to 165 and means Obama has to gain 32 EVs to win this race.

That means McCain has absolutely no margin for error. He can't lose more than one big state because if he does then he's going to lose the election. And this is IF we give him a reasonable chance to win MI which I still maintain is unlikely at best.

I think unrealistic was the wrong word to use because obviously McCain has avenues to victory but the fact is he's polling behind in most of the states he needs to carry. Lots of people will say that polls don't matter but if anyone is underperforming in these polls it is Obama, not McCain.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, for those of you bitching about how inaccurate these polls can be, the site I've been linking for most of this data performed incredibly well in the 2004 election.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/track.html

It had problems with maybe 3 or four states depending on the algorithm used. The only state that the got really wrong was Florida. I've conceded Florida is McCain's to lose and I don't think Obama needs it anyway.

There is still plenty of time before the election and either candidate could do something incredibly stupid. If Obama comes out on Good Morning America and wears a turbin then he's likely going to lose. But I don't see how anyone can slice it up by saying anything other than McCain is currently playing from behind.

[boutons_]

"either candidate could do something incredibly stupid"

count on candidate McSame's team to fear-and-smear incredibly vile. Steve Schmidt probably has 100s of slimy lies and dirty tricks to throw at the Dems.

eg, 600K voters could be caged in OH. There will be widespread voter intimidation by the Repugs, and there is the incredibly revealing situation with voting machines, indicating USA's elections are no better than 3rd world election stealing.

[fyatuk]

Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
Virgina 13
North Carolina 15
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4

McCain has been leading most often by a statistically irrelevant margin in Colorado, Nevada.

McCain has had a healthy lead in every poll, except the last two in Montana. Obama had a fluke lead followed by McCain taking an irrelevent lead. Last poll is in July, so pollsters don't think it's in play.

Neither Dakota is going to Obama. In the one he actually has a lead in, he just took it and it doesn't include either convention which McCain seems to be getting a slightly bigger bounce. In SD he's never had a lead, but it hasn't been repolled since July, which means the pollsters don't even believe its in play.

In Indiana, McCain has been leading consistently, and while it's down to irrelevent, the most recent poll includes a partial Obama bounce.

Ohio has been a true swing state flipping back and forth. McCain has had the lead more often though.

Virginia has been flipping as well. Neither has had a relevant lead since May, and the polls have not updated since before the conventions.

McCain has had a permanent lead in NC, though lately it's been irrelevant.

Florida has pretty consistently gone to McCain as well. Even you have admitted that's pretty much McCain's to lose.

New Hampshire has been consistently Obama by borderline irrelevant margins. It's Obama's to lose.

Add in Michigan since Obama has mostly had statistically irrelevant leads there. And McCain had leads early. It'll be interesting to see post bounce numbers in Michigan.

NM is probably going to Obama, and Richardson probably has a lot to do with that.

No other states seem to be even remotely in play.

McCain can easily win all these states you mention except New Hampshire and has an outside shot at stealing Michigan. This is all from looking at the polling data posted on your own site.

As I mentioned, most polls are either pre-convention or include DNC but not RNC.

[Supergirl]

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/

They've been tracking states for months now. They've currently got Obama leading 296-242, with Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado currently listed as too close to call.

[JoeChalupa]

With the polls showing McCain moving past Obama it will be very interesting how the State polls reflect his bounce which seems to be a strong and steady one.

[johnsmith]

Why when I can post on the forum and get his point of view while getting a rise out of you at the same time?

It's not really a rise so much as it is a roll of my eyes and say out loud "what a douchebag" every time I see your name attached to a post.

[MannyIsGod]

It's not really a rise so much as a rise.

I know.

[johnsmith]

I'm a huge douchebag


I know.

[whottt]

Hey Manny...McCain is going after California. He's opening up campaign offices there and he's going to send Palin there.

Now even I wouldn' have called that one. Not in a million years.


The only way he does that is if he's getting an inordinate amount of contributions and interest from that state all of a sudden...

There must be a huge interest there for him to make this move.


Oh yeah and once all those women find out she's a not actually a crazed pro-lifer out to overturn Roe V Wade...the interest is only going to increase.

[whottt]

Your figures, much like your logic, are off.

Hillary had 1.46m

Obama had 1.36m

McCain had 701k.


My bad....I got the Texas Numbers mixed with the California numbers. It was in California that she pulled over 2 million votes.


And I don't think my logic is wrong about her having the ability to flip Texas either...like I said, every woman I know voted for Hillary.


I'll tell you what hurt Obama in Texas too...his obnoxious supporters.

My brother hasn't voted Republican since about 1984 and he hates W. After working an Obama rally and seeing the supporters he drew, he said there was no way he could vote for Obama.

[PixelPusher]

My brother hasn't voted Republican since about 1984 and he hates W. After working an Obama rally and seeing the supporters he drew, he said there was no way he could vote for Obama.

GGA is your brother?

[fyatuk]

I'll tell you what hurt Obama in Texas too...his obnoxious supporters.


Obama made me not vote in the Democrat primary. I actually was going to vote for him in the Primaries (even though no way I'd vote for him in the general), but I got about 15 calls from his campaign in 6 days and I said screw that. :downspin:

[whottt]

Read it and weep:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

McCain is now leading in every major National Poll except for 2, and on those 2 he is tied with Obama.

The Largest Swing is the CNN Gallup...19 point swing in just over 5 days.


And he's made nice gains in Michigan and PA as well...for those interested.


And a lot of those polls don't include the full RNC.


She's like Elvis...and McCain, he's not Bush.

[Findog]

McCain will win the following states, electoral votes noted, that Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004:

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arkansas 6
Idaho 4
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Nebraska 5
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
Tennessee 11
Utah 5
Wyoming 3

McCain will probably win the following states that Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004:

Arizona 10
Missouri 11
Texas 34
West Virginia 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Georgia 15
Indiana 11
South Carolina 8
North Carolina 15
Montana 3

That gives him a total of 208, needing 62 to clinch 270.

Obama will win the following states that Kerry and Gore carried:

California 55
Connecticut 7
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Iowa 7*
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Minnesota 10
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11
Delaware 3
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Wisconsin 10

* Bush won in 2004

Obama will probably win the following states:

Michigan 17
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5

Bush took New Mexico in 2004 and New Hampshire in 2000. This gives Obama 264 electoral votes, needing only 6 to clinch.

That leaves the following five swing states, carried by Bush in both 2000 and 2004, that will decide the election:

Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Ohio 20
Virginia 13
Florida 27

Here is what to keep in mind when watching on election night:

∙ Early signs of McCain victory: GOP pick up of Pennsylvania or Michigan

∙ Early signs of Obama victory: Dem pick up of Virginia, Florida or Ohio

∙ Florida, Ohio and Virginia will be called earlier in the evening. If Obama picks up any one one of these three states, then he is in the driver's seat for the Presidency.

∙ If McCain sweeps these three states, the election results will hinge on Colorado and Nevada being called later on, assuming no new pickups for either party.

∙ Palin will help McCain consolidate certain states that have traditionally been safe GOP but are still in play for Obama. This will help McCain avoid having to expend money and resources to hold onto safe GOP states.

∙ Obama will not be outspent, has a far superior grassroots organization, and has run a very focused and disciplined campaign. There is substantial
reason to believe that the prospect of a black President will lead to historically record-high turnout in the African-American community. In
addition, his campaign doesn't make many mistakes and has largely managed to avoid shooting themselves in the foot. The race is his to lose. The dynamics and enthusiasm gap favor Obama at this point.

∙ McCain can only win by using Idiocracy-style politics and making this about personalities instead of issues. The Republicans have had great success winning elections this way in the past, so McCain can't be counted out yet.

[Findog]

Gallup poll is an outlier and can't be trusted.

[Findog]

The only thing that matters is Ohio and Florida. McCain needs to win both, Obama only one of those.

Actually, assuming that so far Obama has managed to add New Mexico and Iowa to Kerry's 2004 total, that leaves him 6 electoral votes shy of winning. He can take Colorado and let McCain have both Florida and Ohio.

[whottt]

Gallup poll is an outlier and can't be trusted.



Whatever makes you feel better man, but a 19 point swing is telling, no matter the margin for error. You guys can post all the stuff you want but it's not going to change anyones mind once they've decided who to vote for.



And McCain is going after California as well...Palin will begin speaking there on September 26th.



Everything is in play....you guys just don't realize it yet, because you're too far to the left. The entire country does not share your hardwired POV.

And McCain is not Bush...

[Findog]

Whatever makes you feel better man, but a 19 point swing is telling, no matter the margin for error.

There was no 19 point swing. There aren't enough undecided voters for such a swing in either direction.






And McCain is going after California as well...Palin will begin speaking there on September 26th.

Good. I hope he wastes money and resources there.



Everything is in play....

Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia are in play for both candidates. Obama has picked up New Mexico and Iowa. Everything else is the same vis a vis Kerry/Bush and Obama/McCain


you guys just don't realize it yet, because you're too far to the left. The entire country does not share your hardwired POV.

Typical. I wasn't even discussing issues or ideology, just analyzing the electoral map.


And McCain is not Bush...

That's right. He only belongs to the same party and votes for his agenda the overwhelming majority of the time.

[whottt]

Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia are in play for both candidates. Obama has picked up New Mexico and Iowa. Everything else is the same vis a vis Kerry/Bush and Obama/McCain

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html




Typical. I wasn't even discussing issues or ideology, just analyzing the electoral map.

Well #1 I already know your ideology....regardless of whether or not you are discussing it here and now.

#2. You don't realize that map isn't uptodate...lots of things have changed, that's what you don't see.

Even the National Polls don't show the full impact of the RNC yet.




That's right. He only belongs to the same party and votes for his agenda the overwhelming majority of the time.


That's actually not really true...you should stop believing what you are told and research your own stuff.

Matter of fact, you ought to go look at McCain and Obama's platforms recently. There's not much difference between them now that Obama has said the surge was a resounding success and is saying he won't rescind the Bush tax cuts right now.


His whole economic platform was based on rescinding those cuts and raising coroporate taxes.


You aren't running against Bush Cheney...and the attacks that worked against them, that never actually worked and instead actually got them re-elected, are definitely not going to work now.

Bush and Cheney were two of the most unlkeable and uncharismatic politicians in American history, and they got re-lected for one reason only...because the Democrats were running on a completely ignorant immediate pull out platform.

Ya'll gave America no choice but to vote for them.

McCain and Palin are much more likeable, and easier to vote for....it's not even close.


Every time you say they're just are like Bush...a moderate goes, no, they really aren't...and decides to vote against you.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/peak-at-new-electoral-map.html

New post this evening about new polls released and how they help/hinder each candidate. Good and bad news for both.

[Biernutz]

Many pollsters now use on-line polls. The respondents aren't selected randomly. Here's a link to the story as it's a bit long. Can you trust the polls for good info now?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_24/b4088086641658.htm

[whottt]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/peak-at-new-electoral-map.html

New post this evening about new polls released and how they help/hinder each candidate. Good and bad news for both.



Awesome...did you notice freaking Washington State is about to be in play? +4

Like I said...States that no one is expecting to be in play are going to come into play.

[MannyIsGod]

Awesome...did you notice freaking Washington State is about to be in play? +4

Like I said...States that no one is expecting to be in play are going to come into play.

Yeah but the data also supports Florida being more in play for Obama. Did you see the results there?

[Mr. Body]

Fivethirtyeight is pretty intelligent reading. Talks about how the RNC made some red states redder and some blue states bluer, also indicates which swings are most important.

WI and MI are important defense states for Obama now. Florida is slipping a bit for McCain.

[Mr. Body]

WA will stay with the Dems.

[whottt]

All this is incredibly good news for Obama

[whottt]

Yeah but the data also supports Florida being more in play for Obama. Did you see the results there?

Yeah and Ohio shows McCain up by 7....way more gains for McCain than Obama.

[whottt]

And BTW, some of these states haven't been polled since mid-July...

[MannyIsGod]

LOL

Well there was bad news in there for Obama without a doubt, but I really do think its was mostly a wash and the status quo benefits Obama.

[Mr. Body]

Am I the only one that finds editing quote boxes incredibly rude?

[Mr. Body]

LOL

Well there was bad news in there for Obama without a doubt, but I really do think its was mostly a wash and the status quo benefits Obama.

538.com says it seems to have shifted the map around slightly and gave McCain an expected boost. Also that this could be the highest M-P go. We'll see.

[whottt]

LOL

Well there was bad news in there for Obama without a doubt, but I really do think its was mostly a wash and the status quo benefits Obama.



Every pollster I've seen interviewed says you won't see the full bump from the RNC until mid-week.


It's concievable McCain could be up 15 points in some National Polls by mid-week...no way in hell that is good news for Obama...I want to see a professional national poll showing a winner of the Presidential election being down by 15.

[whottt]

Besides...the smears are having a complete and total backlash.


Everyone sees this woman and knows she's not a typical politican...the Dems trying to put Washington dirt on her is going to fool no one.

[MannyIsGod]

Every pollster I've seen interviewed says you won't see the full bump from the RNC until mid-week.


It's concievable McCain could be up 15 points in some National Polls by mid-week...no way in hell that is good news for Obama...I want to see a professional national poll showing a winner of the Presidential election being down by 15.

There will be no 3 day averages at any point in any daily national poll that show McCain up 15 points. None.

[Mr. Body]

Every pollster I've seen interviewed says you won't see the full bump from the RNC until mid-week.

When McCain isn't up by 15 points mid-week you're welcome to suck my cock.

Convention bounces happen right away and cycle slowly out over weeks, although the highest point comes right away. Three-day rolling polls are already showing a fade in that regard.

I expect some Palin bounce from the kid gloves treatment she gets from ABC.

[Mr. Body]

Besides...the smears are having a complete and total backlash.


Everyone sees this woman and knows she's not a typical politican...the Dems trying to put Washington dirt on her is going to fool no one.

She's not a typical politician because she's actually kind of an idiot. Did you see that Fanny/Freddy quote? Good lord.

Nah, the ads will have an impact. McCain has already had to run away from his experience thing, instead trying to steal 'change' from Obama. If they lose their 'reformers of the GOP... within the GOP' meme, they'll have to try something new.

[MannyIsGod]

Whottt something is up with those Rasmusen polls in Ohio. They are consistently showing McCain with a large lead in the state. The last 3 are +7, +5 and +10. I don't know if its more inline than the other polls, but its definitely an outlier.

[DarkReign]

Am I the only one that finds editing quote boxes incredibly rude?

No. Its childish and snide. But everyone seems to pride themselves on their ability to "FIFY" around here.

[DarkReign]

BTW, there hasnt been one debate yet. All of these number being bandied about are well and good, but IMO, they arent indicating anything until after the first debate.

Once the first debate happens (9-26), then these polls and figures will have real bearing and the real-time, up-to-date results will be more indicative of current front-runner.

Until then, I think this is an excercise in "Which way is the wind blowing today?"

[Findog]

It's true that McCain isn't exactly George W. Bush, but he is from the incumbent party, and it is very easy to demonstrate that he and Bush agree on far more things than they disagree on. So for that reason, I don't expect any Kerry states to turn red. Obama might have to play a little defense in his ground operations to keep Michigan and Pennsylvania in his column, but it's highly unlikely McCain picks up any Kerry states.

Iowa and New Mexico have consistently polled in Obama's favor outside of the margin for error, so much so that Iowa is now practically a safe state for Obama. I expect him to pick up those two Bush 2004 states, bringing his electoral vote total to 264.

I expect McCain to hold onto the following Bush 04 states: Bama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. That's 134 EV.

The following states have recently been lighter shades of red when it comes to polling, but I think the selection of Palin slams the door shut on Obama winning the following Bush 2004 states: Georgia, Missouri, South Dakota, West Virginia and North Carolina. Montana, Indiana and North Dakota are all Bush 2004 states that Obama is faring pretty well in, but I don't know if I expect that to last, so I'll go ahead and put them in McCain's column. But they are just as likely to turn blue as Pennsylvania and Michigan are to to turn red.

So that gets McCain to 200 and Obama at 264. That leaves the following swingiest of swing states:

Colorado (9), Florida (27), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13).

If I'm Obama, I might be tempted to concede Ohio and pour everything into Florida. Of course, conceding Ohio means McCain can pull out some of his money and resources too, so maybe it's best to open up as many fronts as possible since Obama's ground operation is better than McCain's. Of those five, Obama needs to pick up 6 electoral votes. He's polling ahead in Nevada and Colorado, and it's anybody's state in Florida and Virginia.

It's Obama's race to lose.

[RandomGuy]

Palin is polling more favorable than any other candidate in this election right now.

She still has a couple of months to go gaffe-free before that means anything.

We'll see if she can hold up her appeal after the honeymoon is over.

Personally, I think she is a bit of a nutter, but time will tell.

[NASCARdad]

Palin will win this one for the Republicans and I don't see a democrat winning the White House until 2016 at the earliest.

http://www.carefulthought.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/mcpalin2.jpg

[Crookshanks]

Looks like the door has definitely slammed for Obama in North Carolina!

RALEIGH (WTVD) -- In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, September 09, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.
In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.
The following was asked of 671 likely voters (more data on collection listed at the bottom):
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

58% McCain (R)
38% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided

The Results of a SurveyUSA Election Poll
Geography Surveyed: North Carolina
Data Collected: 09/06/2008 - 09/08/2008

McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He's polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month.

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults 09/06/08 - 09/08/08. All interviews were completed after the Labor Day weekend, and after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Of the 900 adults, 783 were registered to vote; of them, 671 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. North Carolina has 15 Electoral College votes. Incumbent Republican President George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points in 2004 and by 13 points in 2000.
(Copyright ©2008 WTVD-TV/DT. All Rights Reserved.)

[101A]

She still has a couple of months to go gaffe-free before that means anything.

We'll see if she can hold up her appeal after the honeymoon is over.

Personally, I think she is a bit of a nutter, but time will tell.

I'm thinking the more everybody sees, the more they like. The interview with Gibson is gonna be the harbinger. If she pulls that off favorably; Katie bar the door.

[101A]

Looks like the door has definitely slammed for Obama in North Carolina!

RALEIGH (WTVD) -- In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, September 09, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.
In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.
The following was asked of 671 likely voters (more data on collection listed at the bottom):
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

58% McCain (R)
38% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided

The Results of a SurveyUSA Election Poll
Geography Surveyed: North Carolina
Data Collected: 09/06/2008 - 09/08/2008

McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He's polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month.

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults 09/06/08 - 09/08/08. All interviews were completed after the Labor Day weekend, and after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Of the 900 adults, 783 were registered to vote; of them, 671 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. North Carolina has 15 Electoral College votes. Incumbent Republican President George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points in 2004 and by 13 points in 2000.
(Copyright ©2008 WTVD-TV/DT. All Rights Reserved.)


This is actually good news for Obama, considering. 20 point wins in the South means Obama could win the electoral vote, and lose the popular by a sizeable number; something I wouldn't have thought possible.

Would be ironic.

[TheMadHatter]

Idiot Republicans are fun to watch. You do realize that Obama wins electorally at this point in the race right? McCain has significant ground to cover.

This is assuming Obama doesn't retake the momentum his way, which we all know will inevitably happen. How long have you all followed politics?

[MannyIsGod]

This is actually good news for Obama, considering. 20 point wins in the South means Obama could win the electoral vote, and lose the popular by a sizeable number; something I wouldn't have thought possible.

Would be ironic.

Its not good news. I get what you're saying but its not good news.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm thinking the more everybody sees, the more they like. The interview with Gibson is gonna be the harbinger. If she pulls that off favorably; Katie bar the door.

The interview with Gibson is going to have less attention paid to it than people realize. What day is the interview?

[Findog]

Its not good news. I get what you're saying but its not good news.

States like North Carolina, Georgia and Montana have never been in play for Obama. They only seemed that way because nobody is paying attention to a presidential election several months out. Two things have happened: People are now finally paying attention and Palin is turning some of those pink states red. Whether she adds any appeal beyond that remains to be seen. She is a new political commodity, it will take time to determine what if any effect she has on this election besides helping McCain consolidate his base. He always had more room to grow his vote than Obama did.

As of right now, Obama's best chance to win I think is Kerry's states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado.

[MannyIsGod]

States like North Carolina, Georgia and Montana have never been in play for Obama. They only seemed that way because nobody is paying attention to a presidential election several months out. Two things have happened: People are now finally paying attention and Palin is turning some of those pink states red. Whether she adds any appeal beyond that remains to be seen. She is a new political commodity, it will take time to determine what if any effect she has on this election besides helping McCain consolidate his base. He always had more room to grow his vote than Obama did.

As of right now, Obama's best chance to win I think is Kerry's states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado.

Thats pretty much how I view the states he has the best shot in, but I think he did have outside chances in many other notable "red" states.

The polls the past 2 days have shown some McCain bounce but they've also shown a much smaller bounce in the battleground states. Right now those polls are really putting the pressure on but it is important to see if the bounce is sustained. Typically convention bounces are just that: A rise and then a fall.

I'll give this to the republicans, they campaign so much better than democrats. Its not even close. For as much as Obama said he wasn't going to let them swiftboat him he sure as hell didn't fight back.

Sometimes I wish someone would have the Democrats read Machiavelli. I think they could learn a thing or 2.

[01.20.09]

Not looking good at all for Obama.

[MannyIsGod]

Not looking good at all for Obama.

I wouldn't go that far. He's still got a good 250+ EVs in the bag. He's just going to have to win a couple of the hard ones too.

[Findog]

Given the state of the economy and the GOP is so unpopular, I don't see Obama giving back any Kerry states, not even Michigan or Pennsylvania. McCain's best chance to win might be to bleed Obama's resources and money into simply holding onto those states.

But the underlying structure favors Obama. Michigan and Pennsylvania are "weak" Obama states, the only two states McCain has a shot in, and it will be just as much of an uphill climb for him there as Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina are for Obama. Iowa and New Mexico are already being called as having been flipped from red to blue. That leaves holding onto to MI and Penn and adding Colorado.

My guess is that on election night, Iowa, NM and Colorado go into Obama's camp, nothing else changes, and Obama wins.

[whottt]

I wouldn't go that far. He's still got a good 250+ EVs in the bag. He's just going to have to win a couple of the hard ones too.



It's a mistake to think this...it's a totally different ball game now.

[whottt]

Personally, I think she is a bit of a nutter, but time will tell.



Why do you think this?


Because of what you've heard?

Because of what you've seen?

Because of what you've read?




I would like to see specific examples and actions...because nearly every lefty is saying this but I have yet to see proof of this.



If it's because she's pro-life then you might as well say every Roman Catholic is nutty too...and then you have to prove she'd overturn ROE V Wade or not veto an anti-abortion bill...and there is nothing in her professional career to back that claim up...and there is evidence to the contrary.


And guess what, she was born Roman Catholic.

Which is probably where her Pro-Life views come from...

[Findog]

It's a mistake to think this...it's a totally different ball game now.

Obama has all of Kerry's states "in the bag" except for Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. He will likely retain those, as well as pick up Iowa and New Mexico. Whether he can pick up 6 EVs out of NEV, COL, FLA, OH or VA remains to be seen.

[cool hand]

eat a lot of twinkies.

[TheMadHatter]

I can't see Obama losing Michigan or Pennsylvania. The black vote in both those states should be enough to push him over the top. Also, CO hates McCain for the water fiasco and NM should also go to Obama as well. That right there should lockup the race for Obama.

What Palin did is make the red states even redder. The states where Obama really never had a chance to begin with.

[possessed]

Idiot Republicans are fun to watch. You do realize that Obama wins electorally at this point in the race right? McCain has significant ground to cover.

This is assuming Obama doesn't retake the momentum his way, which we all know will inevitably happen. How long have you all followed politics?

Have you been following it for at least the last four years. If so, jog your memory and ask yourself what the electoral map looked like 4 years ago today.


:toast

Kerry 2004! Fuck yeah! :lmao

[florige]

This is the map from the 3rd. Not sure how much it's changed since then.....


http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html

[Mr. Body]

Obama has all of Kerry's states "in the bag" except for Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. He will likely retain those, as well as pick up Iowa and New Mexico. Whether he can pick up 6 EVs out of NEV, COL, FLA, OH or VA remains to be seen.

It'd be stunning if he couldn't pick off one of those.

Michigan will be tested. Penns. probably isn't a concern.

NH is toying with Palin but they're not social conservatives there.

Ohio will be one to watch. It was so intensely close in 2004 with some voter irregularities.

I think Colorado puts Obama over the top.

[TheMadHatter]

CO and NM will seal the deal for Obama. This is still his race to lose.

[florige]

CO and NM will seal the deal for Obama. This is still his race to lose.


Thats what I think too. I don't care how much they want to play up the virtual tie/lead they think they have now. Let them gloat. This is the best news the Repub's have had in months.... Too bad (barring a total Obama meltdown) it's gonna be short lived.....:lol

[Mr. Body]

Thats what I think too. I don't care how much they want to play up the virtual tie/lead they think they have now. Let them gloat. This is the best news the Repub's have had in months.... Too bad (barring a total Obama meltdown) it's gonna be short lived.....

I wonder. First, Obama is not going to meltdown. He's shown to be unflappable and utterly disciplined. The McCains are trying ever so hard to get him off his game, to distract and jump around to change the terms of the game, but Obama's not budging.

Second, McCains are burning a ton of energy with negative attacks and wailing about sexism and lipstick. There's a ton of urgency bordering on desperation. They can't keep this up. Rather, they can keep it up, but people will start tuning them out. Palin's still the new shiny toy, but people get tired of shiny new toys that don't do anything. Plus, there are 3 debates coming up to remind everybody that it's actually boring old John McCain who is running for president, not her. Her backers may decide to sit back and wait to run her in '12.

[florige]

I wonder. First, Obama is not going to meltdown. He's shown to be unflappable and utterly disciplined. The McCains are trying ever so hard to get him off his game, to distract and jump around to change the terms of the game, but Obama's not budging.

Second, McCains are burning a ton of energy with negative attacks and wailing about sexism and lipstick. There's a ton of urgency bordering on desperation. They can't keep this up. Rather, they can keep it up, but people will start tuning them out. Palin's still the new shiny toy, but people get tired of shiny new toys that don't do anything. Plus, there are 3 debates coming up to remind everybody that it's actually boring old John McCain who is running for president, not her. Her backers may decide to sit back and wait to run her in '12.




I agree. I shouldn't have said meltdown, scandal was probably a better word to use. While I wasn't expecting this much fuss over his VP pick, I was very much expecting McCain to pull even/ahead after their convention. I'm not sure why they are saying that it's the end of Obama when this was expected anyway..... 1 point, yeah stick a fork in Obama he's toast.....:lmao

[Findog]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080910/ts_afp/usvotepollemory

NEW YORK (AFP) - A pollster whose mathematical model has correctly predicted every winner of the White House popular vote since 1988 is banking on a decisive victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November.
ADVERTISEMENT

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain.

That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Abramowitz said.

He said unknown variables, such as the nation's bitter partisan divide and resistance to Obama's African-American race among some white voters, may result in a slightly smaller popular vote margin for the Democratic nominee.

But, "the combination of an unpopular Republican incumbent in the White House, a weak economy and a second-term election make a Democratic victory in November all but certain," he writes in the October issue of the journal "PS: Political Science and Politics."

"The good news for Democrats is that 2008, unlike 2004, is a time-for-change election -- one in which the president's party has controlled the White House for two or more terms," Abramowitz said.

His model evaluated Republican President George W. Bush's dismal approval ratings, the change in economic output in the second quarter of the election year, and above all an anti-incumbency mood against the White House party.

"Regardless of the popularity of the president or the state of the economy, it is simply much more difficult for the president's party to retain its hold on the White House," the pollster said.

Abramowitz said his model had correctly forecast the popular vote winner within two percentage points or less in every presidential election since 1988.

That includes the 2000 election, when Democrat Al Gore carried the popular vote. But Bush came ahead in the electoral college after his Supreme Court-mandated win in Florida.

And the model faces a complication this year with the wild-card presence of two third-party candidates, independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, on the ballot for the November 4 election.

[Findog]

It'd be stunning if he couldn't pick off one of those.

Michigan will be tested. Penns. probably isn't a concern.

NH is toying with Palin but they're not social conservatives there.

Ohio will be one to watch. It was so intensely close in 2004 with some voter irregularities.

I think Colorado puts Obama over the top.

Obama is really putting boots on the ground in Colorado. I got this in my gmail inbox this morning:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/tx2co

I think I'm gonna do it, I have some vacation time earned up I can use in October.

[Findog]

I made this comment on another forum, so I'll just CTRL V it here:

My opinion is that Obama still looks likely to win the election, for the following reasons.


1. Obama still isn't behind in polls in a single state that Kerry won in 2004. That means that all he needs to win the election is either Ohio or Florida or a combination of two or three Rocky Mountain states.


A. He's liable to win Ohio because the Democrats are in charge of the election process this time instead of Republicans. That means there won't be eight hour lines in black neighborhoods in Cleveland, won't be 250,000 ballots of (mostly) Democrats that won't get counted, and won't be any Republican hackers manipulated electronic voting machines. He's also liable to win Ohio because the economy there has hit the skids hard. He's also liable to win Ohio for the same reasons that Democrats have taken over the state, namely that Republicans have become the party of Ohio corruption.


B. He's also liable to win several Rocky Mountain states, because John McCain isn't going to win anywhere near 40% of the Hispanic vote, like Bush the Younger did. Indeed, he'll be lucky to win 30%. That will cost him Colorado and Nevada, not just New Mexico. That will be enough for an Obama win even if he loses Ohio. Karl Rove himself has made the observation that McCain can't win the election without 40% of the Hispanic vote.


C. The same thing that could kill McCain in the Rocky Mountain West could kill him in Florida. While I grant that McCain will do better among Cubans than among the rest of the Hispanic community in the United States, the attitude of Republicans about immigration of Spanish-speaking people may harm him in Florida as well. Considering how close Florida has been in the last two elections, and how much of the Hispanic vote has to go to McCain to keep him competitive, his problem in Florida is more serious than you seem to acknowledge.


2. National poll numbers are deceptive. With the choice of Palin, McCain has assured that the Bush base will vote for him. Thus, his numbers in states like Nebraska or Idaho, Georgia or Mississippi, have gone up substantially. If McCain's rise in the national polls is based on an improvement of his standing in such states, then it is entirely meaningless, since McCain would have had to win those states to be competitive in any event. Whether he wins them by 55% to 45% or by 70% to 30% doesn't make any difference. In 2000, Bush the Younger won even though he lost the popular vote, and in 2004, Kerry would have won the presidency with 200,000 more votes in Ohio even as he lost the national popular vote by 3%. The size of a Republican victory in Texas, like the size of a Democratic victory in California, may affect national poll numbers but don't affect who wins the overall election.


3. John McCain is scheduled for three debates with Barack Obama before the election, only one of which will be conducted in a format that McCain is any good with. The debates killed Richard Nixon in 1960, killed Jimmy Carter in 1980, and will in all likelihood kill John McCain this year. If he could get through the debates just reminding people that he had been tortured, it would be one thing, but he can't.


4. Obama will still have tens of millions more to spend before the election than McCain will have, in all likelihood. If he spends a reasonable portion of it in Ohio and Florida and on Spanish television stations, McCain is screwed.


5, Obama hasn't been particularly concerned about the recent rise of McCain in national polls, and I think I know why. He has been running a professional campaign from the beginning, even as McCain has been running a half-assed campaign from the beginning. Just as Obama's Democratic victory was based on understanding what he had to do in caucus states while Hillary Clinton was out trying to win big-state primaries, Obama's victory in the general election will be based on understanding what he has to do to win the Kerry states plus either Ohio or states with large Hispanic populations (Florida or Rocky Mountains states). Obama is still in an extremely good position. If I had to bet who will win based on polls conducted in the last week, showing McCain ahead for the very first time, I would still be betting on Obama.


The Republicans have failed. They have failed in foreign affairs, they have failed in economic management, they have failed in routine maintenance of things like bridges and levees, they have failed in holding the American people together, and they have failed in addressing our dependence on foreign energy. No doubt they can count on rural and puritan religious voters to stand with them no matter how badly they fail, and no doubt that means they can always get 40% to 45% of the vote. But that doesn't guarantee them this election by any means.


All Obama has to do is hold onto Kerry's states and add Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado to his column. His operation in Iowa has been so impressive that Iowa is now considered a safe Obama state. New Mexico he has consistently led in the polls outside of the margin of error, and he and McCain are in a dead heat in Colorado. By contrast, Pennsylvania and Michigan are not likely to slip into McCain's column, nor have there been any polls showing him in the lead there.

[Supergirl]

Thought people would have fun with this site: http://www.270towin.com/

It allows you to visually see which states put Obama over the edge, and which states McSame would have to win to defeat him.

My most recent map has Obama winning 288-250, with him winning MI, PA, NH, CO, NM, MN, NC but losing FL, Virginia, Missouri, and Ohio

[Findog]

As much of a hassle as Palin has been to Obama so far, she is potentially just as big a hassle to McCain.

1. She threatens to completely overwhelm him. He can't get a crowd assembled without her on the scene. What will he do when he is expected to show up on a stage to debate Obama? He can't very well expect to get by referring to Palin while he is debating Obama, and he is unlikely to look good compared to Obama.

2. The investigation of her role in Troopergate is expected to culminate in a report in October, prior to the election. If the report suggests that she has abused her power, does that mean that she gets away with portraying herself as a victim, especially considering the Alaska Legislature is run by Republicans?

3. Once it becomes clear that she is a sop to the right, she may lose some of her allure, as she has already done with women (a majority of whom don't support her at this point).

4. Obama has a potential strategy open to him to deal with her: he can ignore her and let Biden and the Clintons deal with her. What strategy has McCain got besides trying to hide behind her skirt?

I'm not worried about Palin. She has a lot of negatives, not the least of which is that she kills the GOP's "experience" argument. Plus she has praised Obama's stance on energy matters prior to receiving the Republican nod, a sound bite that will almost certainly come back to bite her and McCain.

The McCain campaign is overly dependent on Palin, and Palin is even shorter on beef than McCain himself is. Let's see how things look a few weeks from now when the novelty has worn off.

[jman3000]

I made this comment on another forum, so I'll just CTRL V it here:

My opinion is that Obama still looks likely to win the election, for the following reasons.


1. Obama still isn't behind in polls in a single state that Kerry won in 2004. That means that all he needs to win the election is either Ohio or Florida or a combination of two or three Rocky Mountain states.


A. He's liable to win Ohio because the Democrats are in charge of the election process this time instead of Republicans. That means there won't be eight hour lines in black neighborhoods in Cleveland, won't be 250,000 ballots of (mostly) Democrats that won't get counted, and won't be any Republican hackers manipulated electronic voting machines. He's also liable to win Ohio because the economy there has hit the skids hard. He's also liable to win Ohio for the same reasons that Democrats have taken over the state, namely that Republicans have become the party of Ohio corruption.


B. He's also liable to win several Rocky Mountain states, because John McCain isn't going to win anywhere near 40% of the Hispanic vote, like Bush the Younger did. Indeed, he'll be lucky to win 30%. That will cost him Colorado and Nevada, not just New Mexico. That will be enough for an Obama win even if he loses Ohio. Karl Rove himself has made the observation that McCain can't win the election without 40% of the Hispanic vote.


C. The same thing that could kill McCain in the Rocky Mountain West could kill him in Florida. While I grant that McCain will do better among Cubans than among the rest of the Hispanic community in the United States, the attitude of Republicans about immigration of Spanish-speaking people may harm him in Florida as well. Considering how close Florida has been in the last two elections, and how much of the Hispanic vote has to go to McCain to keep him competitive, his problem in Florida is more serious than you seem to acknowledge.


2. National poll numbers are deceptive. With the choice of Palin, McCain has assured that the Bush base will vote for him. Thus, his numbers in states like Nebraska or Idaho, Georgia or Mississippi, have gone up substantially. If McCain's rise in the national polls is based on an improvement of his standing in such states, then it is entirely meaningless, since McCain would have had to win those states to be competitive in any event. Whether he wins them by 55% to 45% or by 70% to 30% doesn't make any difference. In 2000, Bush the Younger won even though he lost the popular vote, and in 2004, Kerry would have won the presidency with 200,000 more votes in Ohio even as he lost the national popular vote by 3%. The size of a Republican victory in Texas, like the size of a Democratic victory in California, may affect national poll numbers but don't affect who wins the overall election.


3. John McCain is scheduled for three debates with Barack Obama before the election, only one of which will be conducted in a format that McCain is any good with. The debates killed Richard Nixon in 1960, killed Jimmy Carter in 1980, and will in all likelihood kill John McCain this year. If he could get through the debates just reminding people that he had been tortured, it would be one thing, but he can't.


4. Obama will still have tens of millions more to spend before the election than McCain will have, in all likelihood. If he spends a reasonable portion of it in Ohio and Florida and on Spanish television stations, McCain is screwed.


5, Obama hasn't been particularly concerned about the recent rise of McCain in national polls, and I think I know why. He has been running a professional campaign from the beginning, even as McCain has been running a half-assed campaign from the beginning. Just as Obama's Democratic victory was based on understanding what he had to do in caucus states while Hillary Clinton was out trying to win big-state primaries, Obama's victory in the general election will be based on understanding what he has to do to win the Kerry states plus either Ohio or states with large Hispanic populations (Florida or Rocky Mountains states). Obama is still in an extremely good position. If I had to bet who will win based on polls conducted in the last week, showing McCain ahead for the very first time, I would still be betting on Obama.


The Republicans have failed. They have failed in foreign affairs, they have failed in economic management, they have failed in routine maintenance of things like bridges and levees, they have failed in holding the American people together, and they have failed in addressing our dependence on foreign energy. No doubt they can count on rural and puritan religious voters to stand with them no matter how badly they fail, and no doubt that means they can always get 40% to 45% of the vote. But that doesn't guarantee them this election by any means.


All Obama has to do is hold onto Kerry's states and add Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado to his column. His operation in Iowa has been so impressive that Iowa is now considered a safe Obama state. New Mexico he has consistently led in the polls outside of the margin of error, and he and McCain are in a dead heat in Colorado. By contrast, Pennsylvania and Michigan are not likely to slip into McCain's column, nor have there been any polls showing him in the lead there.

you made that comment here yesterday... not another forum.

[Findog]

you made that comment here yesterday... not another forum.

also made it here on another post, like you said. I think it's relevant. I don't want to have to type out the same comment since most of political arguing is just reiterating the same points and rehashing the same arguments over and over again. Probably should keep my thoughts shorter.

[whottt]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080910/ts_afp/usvotepollemory

NEW YORK (AFP) - A pollster whose mathematical model has correctly predicted every winner of the White House popular vote since 1988 is banking on a decisive victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November.
ADVERTISEMENT

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain.

That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Abramowitz said.

He said unknown variables, such as the nation's bitter partisan divide and resistance to Obama's African-American race among some white voters, may result in a slightly smaller popular vote margin for the Democratic nominee.

But, "the combination of an unpopular Republican incumbent in the White House, a weak economy and a second-term election make a Democratic victory in November all but certain," he writes in the October issue of the journal "PS: Political Science and Politics."

"The good news for Democrats is that 2008, unlike 2004, is a time-for-change election -- one in which the president's party has controlled the White House for two or more terms," Abramowitz said.

His model evaluated Republican President George W. Bush's dismal approval ratings, the change in economic output in the second quarter of the election year, and above all an anti-incumbency mood against the White House party.

"Regardless of the popularity of the president or the state of the economy, it is simply much more difficult for the president's party to retain its hold on the White House," the pollster said.

Abramowitz said his model had correctly forecast the popular vote winner within two percentage points or less in every presidential election since 1988.

That includes the 2000 election, when Democrat Al Gore carried the popular vote. But Bush came ahead in the electoral college after his Supreme Court-mandated win in Florida.

And the model faces a complication this year with the wild-card presence of two third-party candidates, independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, on the ballot for the November 4 election.



I've called the winner of every election since 1980...Abramowitz and his formula are going to get owned in this election.

1. This election is unlike any other, ever, and especially since 1988.

2. He's still stuck in July.

3. Palin has Clinton or Reagan level charisma.



Right now more Americans have a favorable view of Palin than the other 3 candidates...


Someone go ask Al how many times the politician with the best favorability rating has lost the election...

It hasn't happened.


Edit: By election I mean popular vote.

[01.20.09]

I've called every president since 1960.

[Findog]

I've called the winner of every election since 1980...Abramowitz and his formula are going to get owned in this election.

1. This election is unlike any other, ever, and especially since 1988.

2. He's still stuck in July.

3. Palin has Clinton or Reagan level charisma.



Right now more Americans have a favorable view of Palin than the other 3 candidates...


Someone go ask Al how many times the politician with the best favorability rating has lost the election...

It hasn't happened.


Sorry, but Palin hasn't done anything other than energize the Republican base and ensure McCain at the very worst will have a very respectable showing. There is nothing to suggest that she has helped McCain lock up undecideds and independents. And she is at the bottom of the ticket, not the top. There are pros and cons to making a political unknown your running mate. There's a lot of curiosity about her, from people who have made up their minds one way or the other to people still undecided. The fact that she is a skilled politician doesn't undo that this is the worst political environment possible for Republicans. I don't think she's popular outside the Republican base, I think she is a media sensation and curiosity to everybody else. You're confusing novelty with popularity.


Palin has Clinton or Reagan level charisma

How do you know that? She hasn't been able to work up the courage to submit to an interview until today. She is a skilled politician who competently delivered a partisan address at the RNC. Other than that, they've kept her away from reporters and only pulling her out to stand beside John McCain and deliver a condensed version of her convention speech. No one has seen anything of her except in highly scripted settings. The GOP base loves her I'll give you that. And McCain has given undecideds a reason to look over his candidacy again. That's about it.

[florige]

I've called the winner of every election since 1980...Abramowitz and his formula are going to get owned in this election.

1. This election is unlike any other, ever, and especially since 1988.

2. He's still stuck in July.

3. Palin has Clinton or Reagan level charisma.



Right now more Americans have a favorable view of Palin than the other 3 candidates...


Someone go ask Al how many times the politician with the best favorability rating has lost the election...

It hasn't happened.


Edit: By election I mean popular vote.




I thought you said the other day that you were wrong about Bush in 04?

[01.20.09]

We'll see how she does in her first interview today. But Charlie Gibson is such a light weight she should breeze right through it and come out shining. If not she's toast.

[florige]

We'll see how she does in her first interview today. But Charlie Gibson is such a light weight she should breeze right through it and come out shining. If not she's toast.


You said it. She'll come out of it looking like a champion.

[Findog]

Over time Palin will recede as an important factor. VPs don't swing elections. Certainly she hasn't hurt McCain, if anything up to this point she has undeniably helped him.

McCain and the GOP want to turn this election away from the issues and into another chapter of the cultural tribal wars. They want to turn this election into some sort of referendum on Sarah Palin. They've managed with great success to do that through the RNC and up to now. Obama can't fall into that trap, and I don't think that he will.

He's defied every expectation and gotten where nobody thought he could be running a tight, disciplined and focused campaign. It very much reminds me of Clinton's 92 campaign, where economic circumstances were similar and where the GOP went very negative on Clinton personally. There is an anti-incumbency mood in the country, and he's run a competent campaign. Palin has caught them off-balance a little bit, but I think that's to be expected when you have a political newcomer and you don't know where the fault lines are.

I don't think they can sustain Sarah Mania for another 55 days, especially since it's not very potent outside the GOP base. Obama's best strategy is to attack McCain relentlessly on the issues and let surrogates deal with her. You don't see McCain talking about Joe Biden much.

[whottt]

I thought you said the other day that you were wrong about Bush in 04?

It was 2000...and I wasn't wrong about Bush overall, he did lose the popualar vote. I was just wrong about the degree to which he would lose it.

[JohnnyMarzetti]

You've already lost it.

[whottt]

Rasmussen National Poll is giving McCain over a 50% chance of winning...for the first time.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Thursday, September 11, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday, September 11 shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 46% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 48% (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

On the seventh anniversary of the terrorist attack that shook our nation, 54% of Americans say the United States has changed for the worse since that terrible day. Forty-nine percent (49%) say that the world would be a better place if other countries were more like the United States.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends). Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 56%, Joe Biden by 53%. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

Data released last night shows John McCain up by two in New Mexico, up by double digits in North Dakota, and up by an overwhelming margin in his running mate’s home state of Alaska. The Palin surge in Alaska has even helped pull embattled Senator Ted Stevens back to a competitive position in his bid for re-election. Presidential polling has also been released this week for Colorado, Florida, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Michigan, Idaho, and Wyoming. The latest update of the Generic Congressional Ballot will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls. Learn More.

Yesterday, for the first time ever, Rasmussen Markets data gave McCain a better than 50% chance of winning the White House in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give Obama a 48.9% chance of victory. Prior to this past weekend, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

Obama now enjoys a 193-189 lead in the Electoral College. When “leaners” are included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading 264-247 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary). Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.

[whottt]

Real Clear Politics has the Electoral Map now in a virtual tie 217 Obama 216 McCain:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[Findog]

Real Clear Politics has the Electoral Map now in a virtual tie 217 Obama 216 McCain:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Only Kerry states in play: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

Only Bush states in play: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa (practically an Obama safe state), Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Obama needs to pick off either Ohio or Florida, or grab 2-3 mountain states.

McCain has to hold the Bush electoral map together. He's already lost Iowa, so that gives Obama a grip on 259 EVs. He's got to keep Obama from picking up 11 EVS out of a pool of 86 EVs. Given how convention bounces go, McCain still has another 2 weeks before we see how much of a permanent bump he got.

It's a simple as that. We'll be up late on election night.

[whottt]

90% of the polling trends going in McCain's favor is a positive for Obama.

[Findog]

McCain's convention bounce has decisively swing the election in his favor

[Findog]

I'd be damn surprised if McCain didn't get a convention bounce. That bounce got him all of 1 point lead on Barack nationally. Didn't Gore and Lieberman have a double-digit lead coming out of LA? I bet early September 2000 was an awful time to be a Bush supporter.

[whottt]

Only Kerry states in play: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

Only Bush states in play: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa (practically an Obama safe state), Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Obama needs to pick off either Ohio or Florida, or grab 2-3 mountain states.

McCain has to hold the Bush electoral map together. He's already lost Iowa, so that gives Obama a grip on 259 EVs. He's got to keep Obama from picking up 11 EVS out of a pool of 86 EVs. Given how convention bounces go, McCain still has another 2 weeks before we see how much of a permanent bump he got.

It's a simple as that. We'll be up late on election night.


Actually he really doesn't need to hold the Bush election map together...he can lose Iowa and Colorado....it's when he loses either NM or NV that things get dicey...but I am predicting that Obama is going to lose either Penn or Michigan....plus I think Palin is going to flip a major blue state no one is expecting.


You think she's afraid of giving interviews or doing debates...tell me, were you also one of the ones predicting she would fall on her ass when she spoke before the RNC?


I honestly think this woman does better interviews than any politician I've ever seen.



Furthermore...you think she's some crazed bible thumper...I already know she's not, and neither is McCain. The more she talks the more people will realizze that, the more people are going to find the McCain Palin ticket more centrist and less dicey and leftist than Obama Biden.

Furthermore...leadership is a quality that can't be masked, it can't be hidden, it can't be faked. It is something that has an instinctive appeal that attracts people on an indefinable level...only one candidate in this election has it...and that's Palin....even though she's trying to mask it right now.

Obama and Biden have no leadership appeal...salesmanship yes, leadership no.

[whottt]

I was pretty inspired about Obama's leadership today when he met with Clinton to beg for help. *sniff*, it brought a tear to my eye.

:lol the more Obama has to ask the Clintons for help the more he is going to look like an idiot for not putting Hillary on the ballot with him. They aren't helping him.


It just makes him look even weaker...

[whottt]

Bill, Hillary, please fight my battles for me :lmao

[Findog]

Actually he really doesn't need to hold the Bush election map together...he can lose Iowa and Colorado....it's when he loses either NM or NV that things get dicey...but I am predicting that Obama is going to lose either Penn or Michigan....plus I think Palin is going to flip a major blue state no one is expecting.


True, he can offset losses if he flips some blue states himself. I just think it is no more likely for Michigan and Pennsylvania to flip than say Virginia.



You think she's afraid of giving interviews or doing debates...tell me, were you also one of the ones predicting she would fall on her ass when she spoke before the RNC?

No, I never doubted her ability to competently deliver a partisan speech with a couple of good zingers in front of an adoring convention hall audience. She is a skilled politician. Doesn't mean I want her a 72-year-old heartbeat away from the presidency. Why isn't she going on Meet the Press? Why is she doing a BabaWawa style celebrity interview in primetime? What does she have to hide? The more she eschews typical VP press duties, the more it will grow as a campaign issue.



I honestly think this woman does better interviews than any politician I've ever seen.

I haven't seen any interviews with her since she was selected as VP nominee. What interviews have you seen? Any youtube links?




Furthermore...you think she's some crazed bible thumper...I already know she's not, and neither is McCain. The more she talks the more people will realizze that, the more people are going to find the McCain Palin ticket more centrist and less dicey and leftist than Biden Palin.

She's a sop to the far right of his party, if it was up to McCain he would've nominated pro-choice pol like Ridge or Lieberman. Obama doesn't have to make hay over her religious beliefs, in fact the context in which he made his lipstick remark was part of a larger comment he was making at the time praising her for having religious convictions. Dems don't have to paint her as a religious extremist to win. They should avoid McCain's briar trap of making this a referendum on her, because they lose if they do.


Furthermore...leadership is a quality that can't be masked, it can't be hidden, it can't be faked. It is something that has an instinctive appeal that attracts people on an indefinable level...only one candidate in this election has it...and that's Palin.

I wouldn't know if she has leadership or not because she was par for the course when it comes to the Alaska GOP party and because she won't appear anywhere except at McCain's side at campaign rallies in highly scripted situations. I wish I had your clairvoyance, but your subjective comments here aren't based on anything empirical.


Obama and Biden have no leadership appeal...salesmanship yes, leadership no.


Typical. Who has policies that will better benefit America? Let's not have that debate. Let's turn this into amorphous bullshit on "leadership." They're certainly typical politicians, they cut deals and postured and pandered to head a major party ticket. Just like McCain and Palin. I've never drunk the Obama personality cult kool-aid. At this point I want competence back in my government. I don't expect govt to fix my problems or do for me what I can do for myself. I'm just tired of the same people that can't manage the economy, can't avoid attacking countries that didn't want war with us and didn't attack us, and can't manage to keep a major city from drowning before our eyes. McCain is not George W. Bush, but he is a member of the Republican party, and he would overwhelmingly continue the majority of Bush's policies. The GOP doesn't deserve another 4 years.

[Findog]

I was pretty inspired about Obama's leadership today when he met with Clinton to beg for help. *sniff*, it brought a tear to my eye.

:lol the more Obama has to ask the Clintons for help the more he is going to look like an idiot for not putting Hillary on the ballot with him. They aren't helping him.


It just makes him look even weaker...

Clinton is a very charismatic and persuasive politician. It would be stupid not to have him stump for him. Gore made that mistake in 2000 by deciding to personally distance himself from Clinton and it cost him the election.

[whottt]

New Gallup shows McCain up 48%-44%.

[whottt]

Clinton is a very charismatic and persuasive politician. It would be stupid not to have him stump for him. Gore made that mistake in 2000 by deciding to personally distance himself from Clinton and it cost him the election.


That was different...and I agree with you in that situation.

[Findog]

New Gallup shows McCain up 48%-44%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/11/national_poll_update.html

Two national polls show the race tied, while three give a slight edge to McCain. Just a convention bounce.

[whottt]

No, I never doubted her ability to competently deliver a partisan speech with a couple of good zingers in front of an adoring convention hall audience. She is a skilled politician. Doesn't mean I want her a 72-year-old heartbeat away from the presidency. Why isn't she going on Meet the Press? Why is she doing a BabaWawa style celebrity interview in primetime? What does she have to hide? The more she eschews typical VP press duties, the more it will grow as a campaign issue.

She doesn't have anything to hide...but the more she holds out the more people are going to listen when she finally does speak.

Furthermore, if her not talking leads people to believe she's afraid they'll have low expectation.





I haven't seen any interviews with her since she was selected as VP nominee. What interviews have you seen? Any youtube links?


I've seen her doing interviews and debates on C-Span...that stuff is probably on youtube.

The interviews were particularly revealing...she was answering questions from callers.









She's a sop to the far right of his party, if it was up to McCain he would've nominated pro-choice pol like Ridge or Lieberman. Obama doesn't have to make hay over her religious beliefs, in fact the context in which he made his lipstick remark was part of a larger comment he was making at the time praising her for having religious convictions. Dems don't have to paint her as a religious extremist to win. They should avoid McCain's briar trap of making this a referendum on her, because they lose if they do.


Her appeal is much broader than you think.




I wouldn't know if she has leadership or not because she was par for the course when it comes to the Alaska GOP party and because she won't appear anywhere except at McCain's side at campaign rallies in highly scripted situations. I wish I had your clairvoyance, but your subjective comments here aren't based on anything empirical.

Yeah well...you were wrong about Jason Kidd as well.





Typical. Who has policies that will better benefit America? Let's not have that debate. Let's turn this into amorphous bullshit on "leadership." They're certainly typical politicians, they cut deals and postured and pandered to head a major party ticket. Just like McCain and Palin. I've never drunk the Obama personality cult kool-aid. At this point I want competence back in my government. I don't expect govt to fix my problems or do for me what I can do for myself. I'm just tired of the same people that can't manage the economy, can't avoid attacking countries that didn't want war with us and didn't attack us, and can't manage to keep a major city from drowning before our eyes. McCain is not George W. Bush, but he is a member of the Republican party, and he would overwhelmingly continue the majority of Bush's policies. The GOP doesn't deserve another 4 years.

Obama's tax policy is going to be a disaster...it's going to move jobs out of the US, it's going to increase layoffs....it's going to be horrible.

And his energy policy isn't going to lower gas prices whatsoever....and his transition policy is going to need to be paid for by taxes.




People need to realize that the economy of the past 4 years was most likely the best of possible worlds. Economies don't grow like they did in the 90's forever....you need revolutionary technology usually to have an economic boom like that...and nothing is going to appear just because Obama gets elected...furthermore, if he is taxing the shit out the wealthy they aren't going to have as much money to research new technologies.

[JoeChalupa]

McCain's plans are all more of the same and are already a disaster but according to whottt McCain has this election in the bag.

[fyatuk]

People need to realize that the economy of the past 4 years was most likely the best of possible worlds. Economies don't grow like they did in the 90's forever....you need revolutionary technology usually to have an economic boom like that...and nothing is going to appear just because Obama gets elected...furthermore, if he is taxing the shit out the wealthy they aren't going to have as much money to research new technologies.

The worst thing about the economy over the last few years is the growth in the disparity between executive and peon pay. It's a shame more companies didn't pass their good fortune to consumers or peons.

[Supergirl]

Obama's tax policy is going to be a disaster...it's going to move jobs out of the US, it's going to increase layoffs....it's going to be horrible.

And his energy policy isn't going to lower gas prices whatsoever....and his transition policy is going to need to be paid for by taxes.


Obama's tax cut will benefit everyone making less than 150K a year. People making more can afford to dip into their paychecks a little bit to help out their country.

Obama's tax plan will ensure we have a planet in 500 years, whereas McSame just wants to keep raping the planet like Bush would like to do.

[florige]

McCain's plans are all more of the same and are already a disaster but according to whottt McCain has this election in the bag.


:lol They don't want to admit that right after the convention this was to be expected. If our convention were last the exact same thing would be happening.

[coyotes_geek]

Does anyone honestly believe they're getting a tax cut, no matter who wins? After bailing out Fannie & Freddie, in an unstable economy, with record deficits already on the books and now both Obama and McCain are wanting to bail out the Big 3 automakers, how can anyone actually believe either guy is going to follow through on their tax cut promises?

[Supergirl]

Does anyone honestly believe they're getting a tax cut, no matter who wins? After bailing out Fannie & Freddie, in an unstable economy, with record deficits already on the books and now both Obama and McCain are wanting to bail out the Big 3 automakers, how can anyone actually believe either guy is going to follow through on their tax cut promises?

No. And I don't really care.

For all the BS coming out of Bush/McSame supporters' mouths about patriotism, no one seems to be able to admit that the way a democratic country keeps running is by paying taxes. Get over it. You want a country without good roads, good schools, good health care, a strong military, blah blah blah? Well, taxes pay for those things. Except, of course, when a Republican is in office, and then they charge you the same amount of money for taxes but the money only goes to the military, and your health, roads, schools, etc get flushed down the toilet. Too bad for you.

[Crookshanks]

No. And I don't really care.

For all the BS coming out of Bush/McSame supporters' mouths about patriotism, no one seems to be able to admit that the way a democratic country keeps running is by paying taxes. Get over it. You want a country without good roads, good schools, good health care, a strong military, blah blah blah? Well, taxes pay for those things. Except, of course, when a Republican is in office, and then they charge you the same amount of money for taxes but the money only goes to the military, and your health, roads, schools, etc get flushed down the toilet. Too bad for you.

That's so idiotic it's laughable! Do you even check facts before you spew this garbage? Why don't you check and see the percentage of the national budget that goes to each of the things you listed above - and then get back to us.

We're spending ever increasing amounts on education - but the schools are still failing. Don't even get me started on what we pay for entitlement programs such as medicare, medicaid, and welfare!

[JohnnyMarzetti]

That's so idiotic it's laughable! Do you even check facts before you spew this garbage? Why don't you check and see the percentage of the national budget that goes to each of the things you listed above - and then get back to us.

We're spending ever increasing amounts on education - but the schools are still failing. Don't even get me started on what we pay for entitlement programs such as medicare, medicaid, and welfare!

Are you TPark? I'm sure you've benefited at one time or another from the govt so STFU.

[Mr. Body]

Are you TPark? I'm sure you've benefited at one time or another from the govt so STFU.

He only drives through vacant lots, never on the roads.

[whottt]

Obama's tax cut will benefit everyone making less than 150K a year. People making more can afford to dip into their paychecks a little bit to help out their country.

Obama's tax plan will ensure we have a planet in 500 years, whereas McSame just wants to keep raping the planet like Bush would like to do.


Obama's tax cut isn't going to be a tax cut...it's going to be giving money to people that don't any income tax to begin with. And it's not going to be enough to turn their lives around....


It's called buying votes...and it's not worth it.



And believe me...I will be one of the ones getting a nice credit. That is not going to fix the economy...and it is not going to create jobs. It's going to cost some people their jobs, and it's going to flatten our economy.


I have been through this shit before...it was called the Carter Amidnistration.

[TheMadHatter]

Let's keep giving the top 1% of America more and more tax cuts. That has clearly put our economy in the best position possible today......oh wait.

[whottt]

Latest polls:

Thursday, September 11
Race Poll Results Spread
Florida InAdv/PollPosition McCain 50, Obama 42 McCain +8
Ohio InAdv/PollPosition McCain 48, Obama 47 McCain +1
Michigan InAdv/PollPosition Obama 44, McCain 45 McCain +1
Michigan Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5
Colorado InAdv/PollPosition Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Georgia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 56, Obama 38 McCain +18
Nevada InAdv/PollPosition McCain 46, Obama 45 McCain +1

[whottt]

Let's keep giving the top 1% of America more and more tax cuts. That has clearly put our economy in the best position possible today......oh wait.

Our economy is bad ass compared to most of the world. It's not always going to be some huge economic explosion...and anyone that tells you that it can be is lying.

[fyatuk]

Our economy is bad ass compared to most of the world. It's not always going to be some huge economic explosion...and anyone that tells you that it can be is lying.

Yep, by most measures we have the 2nd or 3rd highest growth rate in the world, while we're talking about potential recession. We're due for another tech boom in another 8 or 9 years I think, which seems like it'll most likely come in the form of energy production/consumption.

[Mr. Body]

Yep, by most measures we have the 2nd or 3rd highest growth rate in the world, while we're talking about potential recession. We're due for another tech boom in another 8 or 9 years I think, which seems like it'll most likely come in the form of energy production/consumption.

If we engage the promise of alternative energy it can fuel a tremendous amount of growth, at the same time weaning us away from giving money to seriously bad groups in the world.

[Findog]

Ooh, this does not bode very well for McCain:

Region Aug. 18-24 Aug. 25-31 Sept. 1-7
East Obama +15 Obama +17 Obama +11
South McCain +12 McCain +4 McCain +15
Midwest McCain +1 Obama +10 Obama +6
West Obama +5 Obama + 7 Obama +7


The Democratic convention was Aug. 25-28 and the Republican convention was Sept. 1-4, so the second column is the pre-convention baseline and the fourth one was taken during and after the Republican convention. If we compare the third and fourth columns to see the effect of the Republican convention, the biggest effect was in the South, where McCain is likely to win most states anyway, and a bit in the East, where Obama is likely to win everything. The effect in the crucial Midwest and West was smaller.

[whottt]

Polls:

Washington Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2


:lol

Tell me you guys were expecting that.


National Rasmussen Obama 45, McCain 48 McCain +3


Biggest lead for McCain on the Rasmussen.





I know, I know...fanstastic news for Obama :lmao

[whottt]

States that no one is expecting to be in play are going to come into play

[whottt]

If you guys want to see how McCain gets 270, try www.electoral-vote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Sep12.png


They now have McCain winning on the Electoral Map 270-268




I hear Obama just opened a bottle of champagne to celebrate this great news.

[Mr. Peabody]

If you guys want to see how McCain gets 270, try www.electoral-vote.com

They now have McCain winning on the Electoral Map 270-268

I hear Obama just opened a bottle of champagne to celebrate this great news.

McCain has turned the momentum of his campaign around. He's leading in the electoral vote on many sites and leads the RCP average. However, we're still two months out and have four debates to come. A lot can happen between now and then.

[DarkReign]

McCain has turned the momentum of his campaign around. He's leading in the electoral vote on many sites and leads the RCP average. However, we're still two months out and have four debates to come. A lot can happen between now and then.

Thus the reason this entire thread means little to nothing until early October.

Republicans have a reason to be fired up. Theyre back in business when it didnt look that way before Palin (to say I am surprised that all it took was a female VP from podunk-nowhere is an understatement and an indictment on the American people all at the same time, regardless of party (<- i hate disclaimers)).

[MannyIsGod]

If you guys want to see how McCain gets 270, try www.electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Sep12.png


They now have McCain winning on the Electoral Map 270-268




I hear Obama just opened a bottle of champagne to celebrate this great news.


I nearly puked when I opened the site this morning.

[Findog]

Palin energizing the base is going to help McCain make this a very close race.

Washington State isn't going to McCain, whott.

Daily tracking polls right now are not that important. It will take two more weeks to see if McCain's convention bounce turns into anything more permanent and concrete.

Kerry vulnerable states: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan

Bush vulnerable states: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa (already an Obama state), Colorado, New Mexico.

[Findog]

I nearly puked when I opened the site this morning.

Relax, McCain's national polling numbers right now are artificially inflated due to his convention bounce. The race as of this moment is a statistical dead heat, and it's still strategically favorable to Obama. If you break the polling data down further, she's had the biggest impact in states McCain was going to win anyways. McCain's bounce has gotten him a statistical dead heat.

[MannyIsGod]

Relax, McCain's national polling numbers right now are artificially inflated due to his convention bounce. The race as of this moment is a statistical dead heat, and it's still strategically favorable to Obama. If you break the polling data down further, she's had the biggest impact in states McCain was going to win anyways. McCain's bounce has gotten him a statistical dead heat.


I agree with some of this, but the situation right now is clearly not prefereable.

[Findog]

I agree with some of this, but the situation right now is clearly not prefereable.

It was always going to be a close race. It's hard to figure how much of McCain's bump in the polls is going to last. We don't know how much is a temporary convention bounce and what kind of lasting effect Palin will have on the race. At the very least she will help turn out the GOP base and keep this a close, competitive election. But it is far from certain that she will help McCain with independents, especially when she kills the GOP's "experience" argument against Obama.

[Findog]

I mean, Republicans gleefully celebrating McCain's current surge to making this race a statistical dead heat is akin to celebrating your team winning the opening coin toss and marching down the field to kick a field goal.

[JoeChalupa]

I've always said this would be a very tough race for Obama to win and now with women flocking to McCain it will be a miracle and that should be of major concern to all Americans who will get more of the same Bush policies. The debates could seal it for McCain because sadly people vote for who they like and not the majority of Americans simply do not relate to the intellectual way Obama speaks.
I'm ready to take a beating from the likes of whottt, yonivore, xray, AHF, wild cobra and others. For I know that McCain is not the answer.

[whottt]

I wish they'd poll NY and Cali...I want to know why McCain is going to be campaigning in both places.

[Findog]

I wish they'd poll NY and Cali...I want to know why McCain is going to be campaigning in both places.

Sarah Palin is going to be in Dallas on October 3rd to fundraise at the Fairmount Hotel and then appear at on outdoors rally. Guess Texas is a threat to turn blue!

[JoeChalupa]

Sarah Palin is going to be in Dallas on October 3rd to fundraise at the Fairmount Hotel and then appear at on outdoors rally. Guess Texas is a threat to turn blue!

Mooseburgers!!

[Findog]

I've always said this would be a very tough race for Obama to win and now with women flocking to McCain it will be a miracle and that should be of major concern to all Americans who will get more of the same Bush policies. The debates will seal it for McCain because sadly people vote for who they like and not the majority of Americans simply do not relate to the intellectual way Obama speaks.
I'm ready to take a beating from the likes of whottt, yonivore, xray, AHF, wild cobra and others. For I know that McCain is not the answer.

Women are not flocking to McCain. Hillary's supporters are not going to vote for a woman that is diametrically opposed to Hillary's stances on the issues. She brought the GOP base on board with McCain. That's all she's done.

[101A]

Women are not flocking to McCain. Hillary's supporters are not going to vote for a woman that is diametrically opposed to Hillary's stances on the issues. She brought the GOP base on board with McCain. That's all she's done.


Then the base is much larger than anyone previously gave it credit for being.

[whottt]

Interestingly enough....Palin is actually lifting up the entire Republican Ticket, the Congressional races are tightening up across the country.



It's not a convention bounce...it's the Democratic Party going after Palin like she's Bush, and the Media riding shotgun on it.

[whottt]

Women are not flocking to McCain. Hillary's supporters are not going to vote for a woman that is diametrically opposed to Hillary's stances on the issues. She brought the GOP base on board with McCain. That's all she's done.

Whatever makes you feel better dude...

[JoeChalupa]

Interestingly enough....Palin is actually lifting up the entire Republican Ticket, the Congressional races are tightening up across the country.



It's not a convention bounce...it's the Democratic Party going after Palin like she's Bush, and the Media riding shotgun on it.

Palin won't know if she more like McCain and Bush until she's told. And why should she get a free pass? Cause she's a woman?

[TheMadHatter]

The bounce McCain is seeing is from the conservative voters. Red states getting redder. They were not enthusiastic about McCain, Palin gives them hope.

That's the reason why battleground state polls have mostly stayed the same, Independent voters have not made up their minds yet. So while the national polls may show McCain up a few percentage points, it's meaningless if he cannot get Independents to vote for him. Think back to Kerry vs. Bush at this time of the year, Kerry was always up a few percentage points in the national polls and when all was said and done it didn't matter since he couldn't carry any swing states.

Democrats are in a much better position in swing states this year simply because they have more elected officials in office in those stats. That is PARAMOUNT to sealing a state for a candidate, having governors/senators/mayors of your party mobilizing the effort is what can make or break a state your way.

[whottt]

:lol

[101A]

Palin won't know if she more like McCain and Bush until she's told. And why should she get a free pass? Cause she's a woman?


Name another VP candidate that has received this kind of scrutiny and treatment?

The closest politician that I can remember getting beaten up and questioned like this, is, frankly, Hillary Clinton.

"WHY won't she just quit????"

[JoeChalupa]

:lmao

[101A]

The bounce McCain is seeing is from the conservative voters. Red states getting redder. They were not enthusiastic about McCain, Palin gives them hope.

That's the reason why battleground state polls have mostly stayed the same, Independent voters have not made up their minds yet. So while the national polls may show McCain up a few percentage points, it's meaningless if he cannot get Independents to vote for him. Think back to Kerry vs. Bush at this time of the year, Kerry was always up a few percentage points in the national polls and when all was said and done it didn't matter since he couldn't carry any swing states.

Democrats are in a much better position in swing states this year simply because they have more elected officials in office in those stats. That is PARAMOUNT to sealing a state for a candidate, having governors/senators/mayors of your party mobilizing the effort is what can make or break a state your way.

Usually you are correct, but right about now, I don't know if ANY politician can help another; the populace is as close to stringing up the lot of them than I can ever remember.

[101A]

:lmao:rollin

[JoeChalupa]

Name another VP candidate that has received this kind of scrutiny and treatment?

The closest politician that I can remember getting beaten up and questioned like this, is, frankly, Hillary Clinton.

"WHY won't she just quit????"

Name another VP who came out of nowhere, Dan Quayle, who the public knows very little about and who has no foreign experience. You really expect everyone just to say Thank you maam and move on?

[Findog]

Whatever makes you feel better dude...

I feel just fine about the state of the race.

[TheMadHatter]

Latest RCP polling data:

McCain Obama
Michigan: 47.2 45.2 Obama +2.0
Pennsylvania: 47.3 45.0 Obama +2.3
Colorado: 48.3 46.0 Obama +2.3
New Mexico: 47.0 44.7 Obama +2.3

All Obama has to do is keep his leads here and in Kerry states and he wins.

[Findog]

Latest RCP polling data:

McCain Obama
Michigan: 47.2 45.2 Obama +2.0
Pennsylvania: 47.3 45.0 Obama +2.3
Colorado: 48.3 46.0 Obama +2.3
New Mexico: 47.0 44.7 Obama +2.3

All Obama has to do is keep his leads here and in Kerry states and he wins.

Yep. Michigan is the most vulnerable Kerry state, its biggest export at this point is young talent and brains since it's a depressed rust-belt economy. Much older voting electorate than in 2004. Plus, there are problems with the political machine in Detroit and all of Kwame Kilpatrick's issues. Lots of "Reagan Democrats" there. Still, it should stay in Obama's column.

I think Colorado is going to be the toughest nut to crack. That state leans GOP, although not by much.

[Findog]

Also, "Hockey Mom" hysteria is going to steadily give way to the idea that she is not prepared for her job, ala Quayle. VPs don't win you elections. She can't win this election for McCain unless he can successfully turn this into another version of the culture wars. All she can do is help him shore up his base, which she's done a great job of. Democrats will make an emphasis of comparing her to Biden, not Obama.

[101A]

Also, "Hockey Mom" hysteria is going to steadily give way to the idea that she is not prepared for her job, ala Quayle. VPs don't win you elections. She can't win this election for McCain unless he can successfully turn this into another version of the culture wars. All she can do is help him shore up his base, which she's done a great job of. Democrats will make an emphasis of comparing her to Biden, not Obama.


Quayle WON.

[Findog]

Quayle WON.

No, Bush Sr beat Dukakis, in a much different electoral map, and his selection of Quayle undoubtedly hurt him. It took what would have been a landslide and made it somewhat closer.

[101A]

No, Bush Sr beat Dukakis, in a much different electoral map, and his selection of Quayle undoubtedly hurt him. It took what would have been a landslide and made it somewhat closer.

Go back and look at the polls - Dukakis had an ENORMOUS lead coming out of convention.

IMO, it is not Palin only that is helping McCain, it is the CHOICE he made for Palin, and outside the beltway, reform minded, fresh face...it shows that he doesn't just TALK change, he actually follows through.

[Findog]

Go back and look at the polls - Dukakis had an ENORMOUS lead coming out of convention.

Yeah, he got a convention bounce, and his lead coming out of the convention was something like 15 points, an absurd outlier. I don't think there was ever any doubt that Bush Sr. was going to win that election. Gore had a 14-point lead coming out of LA. Which is why I'd be mightily concerned if the best McCain can do is make the race statistically dead even. It goes to show you how meaningless national polls are right now. If McCain expands his lead from dead even and +1 to up 7 or 8 points in the polls 3 weeks from now, then it's time for Obama to panic.


IMO, it is not Palin only that is helping McCain, it is the CHOICE he made for Palin, and outside the beltway, reform minded, fresh face...it shows that he doesn't just TALK change, he actually follows through.

Oh yeah, you're a blind partisan if you see that as anything other than a cynical sop to the right. It doesn't really matter though what you or I think. The only audience that matters is undecideds, and the kind of person who still hasn't made up his mind isn't going to do it now on the basis of a big VP splash. There's still no evidence that she's helping him do anything other than shore up his base.

[101A]

You see the trend as; person is leading coming out of the polls, person loses lead, and ultimately, the election.

I see the trend as the lowest a Republican does in the polling is right around convention time; but then people pay attention and momentum is to the right for the rest of the election.

We'll see.

[JoeChalupa]

Palin is the ticket.

[Findog]

Democrats need to stop talking about her and focus on McCain. If you bring her up at all, it's to contrast her with Joe Biden, not Obama. You can't turn this election into some sort of referendum on her, it should be a referendum on the last 8 years.

[101A]

it should be a referendum on the last 8 years.

You were almost there!

McCain is the enemy; not Palin, and not Bush. If the entire campaign is to make McCain=Bush; then ALL McCain has to do is run away from Bush - by doing things like picking Palin, ragging on the size of Bush's cabinet, etc....

[Findog]

You were almost there!

McCain is the enemy; not Palin, and not Bush. If the entire campaign is to make McCain=Bush; then ALL McCain has to do is run away from Bush - by doing things like picking Palin, ragging on the size of Bush's cabinet, etc....

McCain has a long record of sucking up to Bush for the last 8 years. It's an easier case to make than you think.

[101A]

McCain has a long record of sucking up to Bush for the last 8 years. It's an easier case to make than you think.

When did you start following politics?

Bush and McCain HATED each other for the first 6 years of this administration. In the first year of Bush's tenure, McCain voted with him on less than 65% of issues (in HIS first year, Obama voted with Bush on 60).

McCain was courted by Democrats to join Kerry's ticket, for Christ's sake. There is NO Republican more dislike Bush, or who has a identifiable record of diverging from the administration more!

Hell, Bush didn't have a public signing ceremony of McCain/Feingold simply he didn't want to give McCain any public props.

[Supergirl]

When did you start following politics?

Bush and McCain HATED each other for the first 6 years of this administration. In the first year of Bush's tenure, McCain voted with him on less than 65% of issues (in HIS first year, Obama voted with Bush on 60).

McCain was courted by Democrats to join Kerry's ticket, for Christ's sake. There is NO Republican more dislike Bush, or who has a identifiable record of diverging from the administration more!

Hell, Bush didn't have a public signing ceremony of McCain/Feingold simply he didn't want to give McCain any public props.

You combine this with his selection of the Wackjob as his VP, and you have McSame's psychology perfectly clear: He cares more about trying to propel himself to power than he does about what is really in the best interest of this country. And that kind of thinking is gonna backfire, because I truly believe he's going down.

[101A]

He cares more about trying to propel himself to power than he does about what is really in the best interest of this country.

:lmao:lmao:lmao

Betting you are currently either a "Journalism", "Woman's Studies" or "Education" major?

That's nearly the definition of politician.

You remember Bill Clinton, right?

[Mr. Peabody]

When did you start following politics?

Bush and McCain HATED each other for the first 6 years of this administration. In the first year of Bush's tenure, McCain voted with him on less than 65% of issues (in HIS first year, Obama voted with Bush on 60).

McCain was courted by Democrats to join Kerry's ticket, for Christ's sake. There is NO Republican more dislike Bush, or who has a identifiable record of diverging from the administration more!

Hell, Bush didn't have a public signing ceremony of McCain/Feingold simply he didn't want to give McCain any public props.

And I think that's why people are so critical of McCain for "the hug" and other capitulations to the Bush Administration. I remember McCain aides saying they could never forgive Bush for the smear campaign in 2000. Now, he's doing what he has to do politically (both of them are) and I understand that, but it does take some of the shine off of a previously outspoken critic of the Bush Administration.

[101A]

And I think that's why people are so critical of McCain for "the hug" and other capitulations to the Bush Administration. I remember McCain aides saying they could never forgive Bush for the smear campaign in 2000. Now, he's doing what he has to do politically (both of them are) and I understand that, but it does take some of the shine off of a previously outspoken critic of the Bush Administration.

Absolutely.

That's why the system of primaries sucks....have to run to the base to get elected; THEN win the general.

It's why, frankly, the Dems ended up with the "too-liberal" candidate this time, IMO. Hillary would have won easily (although Obama may very well win)

[florige]

Yeah, he got a convention bounce, and his lead coming out of the convention was something like 15 points, an absurd outlier. I don't think there was ever any doubt that Bush Sr. was going to win that election. Gore had a 14-point lead coming out of LA. Which is why I'd be mightily concerned if the best McCain can do is make the race statistically dead even. It goes to show you how meaningless national polls are right now. If McCain expands his lead from dead even and +1 to up 7 or 8 points in the polls 3 weeks from now, then it's time for Obama to panic.



Oh yeah, you're a blind partisan if you see that as anything other than a cynical sop to the right. It doesn't really matter though what you or I think. The only audience that matters is undecideds, and the kind of person who still hasn't made up his mind isn't going to do it now on the basis of a big VP splash. There's still no evidence that she's helping him do anything other than shore up his base.



I can't understand why Whott refuses to acknowledge this. If the roles were reversed they would be using the exact same example. :lol

[Findog]

I can't understand why Whott refuses to acknowledge this. If the roles were reversed they would be using the exact same example. :lol

Yeah, believe me, I would prefer Obama to be up in the polls instead of McCain slightly ahead in national polls, but it's not time for Democrats to start readying the concession speeches, or for McCain to crack open some champagne.

I just think the dynamics of this race favor Obama.

[TheMadHatter]

Nothing brings the GOTV like a candidate that is slightly behind in the polls. Maybe a blessing in disguise for Obama.

[baseline bum]

I can't understand why Whott refuses to acknowledge this. If the roles were reversed they would be using the exact same example. :lol

You can't have a logical discussion with whottt. Have you ever seen his takes on the Spurs forum? Robinson > Jordan, Shane Heal should get more playing time, etc.

[Findog]

Nothing brings the GOTV like a candidate that is slightly behind in the polls. Maybe a blessing in disguise for Obama.

I gave him money and signed up for volunteering in a neighboring state.

[florige]

Yeah, believe me, I would prefer Obama to be up in the polls instead of McCain slightly ahead in national polls, but it's not time for Democrats to start readying the concession speeches, or for McCain to crack open some champagne.

I just think the dynamics of this race favor Obama.



I was expecting McCain to pull even or take a slight lead like this after their convention. Thats why I was upset that their convention was last because that mean't they were going to get the later push. But I can live with 1-2 points.
But I'd be lying if I told you I thought Palin would be getting all this exposure. Now that has caught me by surprise.
I'm with you in the thinking if after the VP debate, and the other 2 debates McCain continues to compile the lead then I will start to worry. Until then, while I will admit I hate to see McCain pull ahead, I haven't pushed the panic button yet.

[Supergirl]

People don't seem to get it: Polls are meaningless. You can make them say anything you want, depending on who you ask, when you ask, and how you ask.

As for who's currently "winning" - well, Obama is currently up 281-257 in the electoral college count. That could change, but that's based on current expectations about how states are likely to go.

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/

[TheMadHatter]

I too have contributed money to Obama's campaign, the 1st time I've ever done so. I was one of those smug people who thought Kerry would obliterate Bush. I'm not making that mistake again, I will do whatever I can to help Obama win this election. America's future is too important to me and the thought of 4 more years of Bush....errr McSame is frightening.

[Findog]

I too have contributed money to Obama's campaign, the 1st time I've ever done so. I was one of those smug people who thought Kerry would obliterate Bush. I'm not making that mistake again, I will do whatever I can to help Obama win this election. America's future is too important to me and the thought of 4 more years of Bush....errr McSame is frightening.

I got an email from the Obama campaign about needing volunteers for Colorado and New Mexico. I live in Texas. Don't you live in California? I bet there are opportunities to volunteer in Nevada.

[101A]

I got an email from the Obama campaign about needing volunteers for Colorado and New Mexico. I live in Texas. Don't you live in California? I bet there are opportunities to volunteer in Nevada.

I live in PA. Voluteering for McCain; contributing; slashing tires in poor neighborhoods; the works.

[TheMadHatter]

^I hope your joking.

[101A]

^I hope your joking.

:wakeup

[Mr. Peabody]

I live in PA. Voluteering for McCain; contributing; slashing tires in poor neighborhoods; the works.

Can you slash a tire that has spinners on it?

[101A]

Can you slash a tire that has spinners on it?

Yes, my preacher at church Sunday told us all to specifically target such cars...right before we prayed to God to kill all Muslims and abortionists, thanked Him for making us all more righteous than all other people on Earth, and for giving us the wonderful blessing of Sarah Palin (Preacher thinks she might have been conceived miraculously).

[DarkReign]

I live in PA. Voluteering for McCain; contributing; slashing tires in poor neighborhoods; the works.


Yes, my preacher at church Sunday told us all to specifically target such cars...right before we prayed to God to kill all Muslims and abortionists, thanked Him for making us all more righteous than all other people on Earth, and for giving us the wonderful blessing of Sarah Palin (Preacher thinks she might have been conceived miraculously).


:lmao :lmao :lmao

Niiiiiiice...

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao