GOP bounce: McCain overtakes Obama

[ducks]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080907/pl_politico/13228

[Viva Las Espuelas]

a foreshadow




:corn:

[balli]

Meh, fuck that popular vote shit. Last time I checked (yesterday)Obama/Biden were sitting on 301 electoral votes and McMoron/Evil Cunt were at like 220 or something. Needless to say, I'm not worried yet.

[ploto]

Ask Al Gore how much the popular vote matters.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Polls don't matter* [/libs]

* unless Obama's winning, then it's gospel

[boutons_]

too early to say, EVERY fucking convention for decades generated a 5-6 pt bounce.

[Man of Steel]

Wait until Palin opens her mouth other than to defame community organizers or lie about the bri:reading:readingdge to nowhere--which she supported until she was against it--and never gave the money back to the federal govt for other more worthy projects.

[balli]

Polls don't matter* [/libs]

* unless Obama's winning, then it's gospel

Who said polls don't matter? I worked for years in the polling industry and I know it inside and out. Polls matter a lot. It's just that the polls that track electoral votes, (y'know, the system actually used in the election) have Obama winning by large margins.

The polls that don't matter are these dumb nationwide popular vote polls that USA Today, et alii throw together with two nights worth of data. They don't reflect the reality of how the electorate adds up so why listen to them?

[ducks]

too early to say, EVERY fucking convention for decades generated a 5-6 pt bounce.

that is why he was behind to begin
wth

the polls after the debates matter more I agree

[fyatuk]

Who said polls don't matter? I worked for years in the polling industry and I know it inside and out. Polls matter a lot. It's just that the polls that track electoral votes, (y'know, the system actually used in the election) have Obama winning by large margins.


Most of those have latest data after the Dem convention but before the Republican one, so it's not appropriate to worry about them right now anyway.

If they get updated this week, you'll probably see a relative tie in electoral votes.

[JoeChalupa]

The time is now.

[xrayzebra]

Who said polls don't matter? I worked for years in the polling industry and I know it inside and out. Polls matter a lot. It's just that the polls that track electoral votes, (y'know, the system actually used in the election) have Obama winning by large margins.

The polls that don't matter are these dumb nationwide popular vote polls that USA Today, et alii throw together with two nights worth of data. They don't reflect the reality of how the electorate adds up so why listen to them?


I suppose it was you and your group who worked on the exit polls for
John Kerry?:lmao:lmao:lmao

By the way are you and boutons joined at this hips?

Your composition and his are almost identical. Very limited and mostly profane.

[01.20.09]

Look at the electoral vote map, not the popular vote polling. Obama is either
ahead or close to where Kerry was in 04 and is ahead of McCain in states
like Iowa and Indiana. If Obama wins the states Kerry won and wins in
Iowa and Indiana, he's going to win in the electoral college.

[DarkReign]

In the general election, are there any states that partition the EVs?

[fyatuk]

In the general election, are there any states that partition the EVs?

Maine and Nebraska IIRC.

[balli]

I suppose it was you and your group who worked on the exit polls for
John Kerry?:lmao:lmao:lmao

By the way are you and boutons joined at this hips?

Your composition and his are almost identical. Very limited and mostly profane.

I wasn't being profane at all... but I will be now- Fuck you xray.

[FromWayDowntown]

Yeah, I don't get the idea of focusing on the popular vote in tracking Presidential elections. Until the popular vote makes any difference, the polling data concerning the national view of the candidates is irrelevant -- I don't really care which side the polling data supports, either.

It's just silly for anyone to buy into what national polling data says.

[whottt]

You guys do realize that the National Polls run ahead of the State Polls right?



You think all those Electoral Maps are made up of recent polling data?

[FromWayDowntown]

You guys do realize that the National Polls run ahead of the State Polls right?

If 60% of the national electorate likes John McCain, it doesn't make it any more likely that he'll win in California, Illinois, and New York, and still leaves open the question about whether he'll have the support to win enough of the larger battlegrounds to get to 270. I just don't think there's ever an instance in which national polling concerning a presidential election says much of anything.


You think all those Electoral Maps are made up of recent polling data?

At this point, given the cottage industry that assessing the electoral college is, I firmly believe that the reliable electoral college maps are being continuously updated by all of the most recent polling data.

[whottt]

At this point, given the cottage industry that assessing the electoral college is, I firmly believe that the reliable electoral college maps are being continuously updated by all of the most recent polling data.


I disagree, they poll the battleground statses more often than the ones not expected to flip. I was looking for a New York poll and the most recent one I found was August 25th, and this includes electoral data...some states weren't polled for the entire month of August.

The good electoral maps will give you the dates...if you can find one reflective of the race since Palin was nominated, in all 50 states...I'd love to see it.

[jochhejaam]

A 13% swing in a week is substantial no matter how you slice it.

Gallup
Last week - McCain 42% - Obama 50%
This week - McCain 49% - Obama 44%

Everyone knows that electoral votes are what matters, and surely everyone knows that more that 90% of the time the candidate with that wins the popular vote, wins the election.
A 13% point popular vote swing has to be taking some electoral votes along with it.

We're still 8 weeks away, but Obama's camp has to be concerned.

[FromWayDowntown]

I disagree, they poll the battleground statses more often than the ones not expected to flip. I was looking for a New York poll and the most recent one I found was August 25th, and this includes electoral data...some states weren't polled for the entire month of August.

The good electoral maps will give you the dates...if you can find one reflective of the race since Palin was nominated, in all 50 states...I'd love to see it.

Are you suggesting that Palin on the ticket is likely to sway non-battleground states? I'd be shocked if you really believe that McCain is going to win California, New York, or Illinois because of Sarah Palin.

The only polling data that concerns me is the polling data in the states that are slight leans or true battlegrounds.

[whottt]

Are you suggesting that Palin on the ticket is likely to sway non-battleground states?

Yes.


I said this a few days ago and IMO, the Republicans feel that way as well since I heard on Fox News McCain is opening up campaign offices in California.



I'd be shocked if you really believe that McCain is going to win California, New York, or Illinois because of Sarah Palin.

It's not just because of Palin, but that is the major part of it.
Oh and they won't win Illinois. Just about any politician not named Al Gore pulls his home state.

[whottt]

Like I say FWDT...if you can show me a Post RNC Electoral Map I am more than happy to check it out.

[Findog]

Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. This is where the election will be decided. Obama has already locked up Iowa, a Bush 2004 state, and he has a lead outside the margin of error in New Mexico, a Bush 2004 state. Colorado, Nevada and Ohio he has a lead within the margin of error, Virginia is a dead-heat, and McCain has a lead within the margin of error in Florida.

It will be close and McCain can't be counted out, but it's Obama's race to lose.

[possessed]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

10 points among likely voters. :wow

[whottt]

It will be close and McCain can't be counted out

:lol

[FromWayDowntown]

Like I say FWDT...if you can show me a Post RNC Electoral Map I am more than happy to check it out.

I'll look around when I get an opportunity.

[T Park]

Oh and they won't win Illinois. Just about any politician not named Al Gore pulls his home state.


and John Edwards.

[Gino]

and John Edwards.

Nice.

[TheMadHatter]

If you look at the state by state polls Obama wins electorally. Right now he has a few key swing states in his pocket, McCain really needs to improve this to have a chance at winning.

[JoeChalupa]

It is ALL about the electoral college and Obama must hold on to the slim leads he now holds and he must improve in Ohio and VA.