Latest Gallup Numbers

[1369]

Show McCain winning the majority of independents (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx)

[NASCARdad]

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y145/t42592/gallup_09092008.jpg

McCain is going to clean house come November!!!

[101A]

This is not trending well for Democrats.

They've been so busy trying to tie McCain to Bush, they've forgotten to run against the actual candidate.

They should learn the lessons the Republicans learned in '92 - they ran against Hillary when the candidate was Bill, then in '96 - they ran against "Liberal Bill", when he had already passed Welfare Reform and NAFTA - they didn't run against ACTUAL Bill.

[Crookshanks]

What's funny is listening to the liberal pundits - they live and die by the polls; yet now that they show McCain winning they are quick to discount polling as inaccurate and not to be taken seriously. I just love watching the libs have a major meltdown!

[TheMadHatter]

When you look at the electoral map this race is still Obama's to lose. He really has to fuck shit up between now and election day to lose this race. McCain has a lot of ground to cover.

[lebomb]

After the debates...........all this poll shit will flip again. I dont see McCain or Palin holding up to the Democrats in a debate.

[Crookshanks]

After the debates...........all this poll shit will flip again. I dont see McCain or Palin holding up to the Democrats in a debate.

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better. Palin destroyed the incumbent Governor in their debate; and Biden himself has said he now believes he's the underdog because debating is not his strong suit. As for Obama - he hems and haws and stutters and stammers every time he tries to talk without it being a rehearsed speech!

I say "bring it on!" Can't wait to see the debates!

[lebomb]

Its funny how in the gallop poll...............cares about the PEOPLE is all greyed out....... :lmao

[lebomb]

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better. Palin destroyed the incumbent Governor in their debate; and Biden himself has said he now believes he's the underdog because debating is not his strong suit. As for Obama - he hems and haws and stutters and stammers every time he tries to talk without it being a rehearsed speech!

I say "bring it on!" Can't wait to see the debates!


Bring it...........we will see. :flag:

[101A]

When you look at the electoral map this race is still Obama's to lose. He really has to fuck shit up between now and election day to lose this race. McCain has a lot of ground to cover.

There is not a single electoral map out that I have found that reflects polling post-Palin.

When Bush beat Gore; the popular vote was VERY close - with Gore edging - other than that it's been well over a century since the popular vote winner and electoral college winner didn't coincide. With the polls as decisive as they are, McCain would win RIGHT NOW. The maps just haven't been updated. This doesn't even take into account the Bradley effect.

[2centsworth]

Can this dog finish?

[Anti.Hero]

After the debates...........all this poll shit will flip again. I dont see McCain or Palin holding up to the Democrats in a debate.

I get the same energy off this post as I got when I read PHX Suns fans repeat nonstop "We have Shaq now, we have already beaten the Spurs twice."

The debates will come and go...

[hitmanyr2k]

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better. Palin destroyed the incumbent Governor in their debate; and Biden himself has said he now believes he's the underdog because debating is not his strong suit. As for Obama - he hems and haws and stutters and stammers every time he tries to talk without it being a rehearsed speech!

I say "bring it on!" Can't wait to see the debates!

Don't let Biden snow you lol. He's pulling the rope-a-dope on everyone trying to lower expectations. I've watched this guy destroy his peers (Democrats and Republicans alike) on C-Span for years. I'm sure Palin can hold her own in Alaska against dipstick incumbent governors but when it comes to the affairs of everyday America she's going get handled. The McCain people better coach her good because that played out stump speech isn't going to help her when she's up there all by herself with the tough questions.

[TheMadHatter]

I love that Obama is keeping Biden in the wings. Biden is incredibly strong on foreign affairs and his record is unmatched by anyone in the race. You're a fool if you think Palin can stand toe-to-toe with him. Biden will annihilate her.

[Nbadan]

The thing about national polls is that they don't reflect the trend in state races, especially in states that McCain needs to win....there's little doubt that all the Palin hype has roused up some of the GOP base, especially the 'tolerant' John Hagee branch, but support in GOP states that Obama has little chance of winning, like Texas, hardly translates into McCain leading in toss-up states...especially with what I call the moron crowd, or political undecideds (if your still undecided after Katrina, Iraq, and the economy your a fucken moron)....all the important polls still trend Obama

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

This is not trending well for Democrats.

They've been so busy trying to tie McCain to Bush, they've forgotten to run against the actual candidate.

They should learn the lessons the Republicans learned in '92 - they ran against Hillary when the candidate was Bill, then in '96 - they ran against "Liberal Bill", when he had already passed Welfare Reform and NAFTA - they didn't run against ACTUAL Bill.

Not to mention Obama seems to think he's running against Palin these days :lol

[PixelPusher]

This doesn't even take into account the Bradley effect.

That's funny, considering all the conservatives in the media who've been "cart-before-the-horse" speculating on a McCain win are preemptively whining that race will be cited as a reason for Obama losing.

[Nbadan]

From our brothers at Wonkette:

Pathetic, Failed Presidential Candidate Barack Obama To Win Presidential Election

http://wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/pollsterelectoral.jpg


Even though the Internet has already concluded that Barack Obama lost the election after some unknown wingnut vice president lady gave one surly speech last week, we couldn’t help but check out the electoral map anyway, just for kicks. Above is the fun Pollster map, and then you’ve got your FiveThirtyEight map, and this is a good thing to read also. Now play around with this stuff for exactly two minutes, preferably while drinking, and after those two minutes you’ll realize that Barack Obama still has this shit safely locked up.

The safest route is still this: Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado. It seems doubtful that New Hampshire, a New England state, would go for any Republican in this particular election, even if WALNUTS! has won its primary twice. And adding a crazy fundamentalist Christian to the ticket instead of friendly neighboring Governor Mittens doesn’t do much for that state’s independent crowd. (Ha ha even though Mittens is a douche too.) Mittens could’ve significantly helped McCain in Michigan, though, because his father used to govern it, and for some reason that would have made some people vote for the smarmy devil son 40 years later. Too late now! Michigan has no freaking business voting for MCCAIN, the guy who told them in January that their jobs were never coming back. And since Michigan and New Hampshire seemed like the only two possible states to lose from the Kerry coalition, well, enough of that.

Iowa seems safe; Barry’s always winning caucuses and giving speeches there, whereas John McCain has avoided the Iowa caucus entirely for each of his 850 presidential campaigns. New Mexico looks solid too, what with that fat Mexican governor of theirs, whatsisname, the one who always brags about his resume… well anyway, he’s always talking up Barry on the teevee. So then Barry simply has to win Colorado, where he just threw A HUGE SEXY PARTY FOR AN ENTIRE WEEK (and also where one of those Democratic Udalls is coasting to a Senate victory). Then he wins and Sarah Palin goes back to her distant Ice Palace in terrible shame.

Or he could pull off Florida — where the lovely old Jewish folks don’t cotton much to crazy ass Governor Palin — and fuck the rest, because if you’re looking at the Pollster map, 243 + 27 = a happy number.

Or he could win Kerry states + Virginia + Iowa or Nevada or Colorado or like any other random state.

Or he could lose Colorado and instead win Nevada & Montana — where Ron Paul is on the ballot!

And in case you haven’t noticed, all of the above scenarios exclude freaking Ohio. And if you had to make a bet, in a Democratic year, well…

Wonkette (http://wonkette.com/402658/pathetic-failed-presidential-candidate-barack-obama-to-win-presidential-election)

[01.20.09]

Not to mention Obama seems to think he's running against Palin these days :lol

And he is. McCain is riding her panties all the way.

[Wild Cobra]

And he is. McCain is riding her panties all the way.

At least he picked the right panties!

[whottt]

Some state polls courtesy of Real Clear Politics:



Wednesday, September 10
Race Poll Results Spread
Montana Rasmussen McCain 53, Obama 42 McCain +11
National NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl McCain 45, Obama 46 Obama +1
North Carolina SurveyUSA McCain 58, Obama 38 McCain +20
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickinson Obama 47, McCain 41 Obama +6


Obama +6 in Jersey....hmmm. Jersey is definitely a flippable state.


Uh...what were you guys saying about Montana earlier?

[TheMadHatter]

Montana is irrelevant.

Penn. and Michigan + Colorado + New Mexico = Obama victory

McCain has a lot of work left to do. All Palin did was make this a race again.

[Nbadan]

:rolleyes Please, it's one poll...

Rasmussen 09/08 - 09/08 700 LV 53 42 McCain +11
Rasmussen 07/29 - 07/29 500 LV 47 47 Tie
Rasmussen 07/01 - 07/01 500 LV 43 48 Obama +5

Source: Realclearpolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mt/montana_mccain_vs_obama-614.html)

One poll does not a trend make (except for Whott)

[whottt]

:lol whatever makes you guys feel better.

[fyatuk]

:rolleyes Please, it's one poll...

Rasmussen 09/08 - 09/08 700 LV 53 42 McCain +11
Rasmussen 07/29 - 07/29 500 LV 47 47 Tie
Rasmussen 07/01 - 07/01 500 LV 43 48 Obama +5

Source: Realclearpolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mt/montana_mccain_vs_obama-614.html)

One poll does not a trend make (except for Whott)

You got a point. Obama has led in ONE poll in Montana. Other than that, and the tie, McCain has had a pretty secure lead. Obama's lead in Montana was a fluke and probably a bad sample.

[Findog]

McCain is going to clean house come November!!!

I. Your celebration of McCain's victory is not just premature, it is probably entirely mistaken. My opinion is that Obama still looks likely to win the election, for the following reasons.

1. Obama still isn't behind in polls in a single state that Kerry won in 2004. That means that all he needs to win the election is either Ohio or Florida or a combination of two or three Rocky Mountain states.

A. He's liable to win Ohio because the Democrats are in charge of the election process this time instead of Republicans. That means there won't be eight hour lines in black neighborhoods in Cleveland, won't be 250,000 ballots of (mostly) Democrats that won't get counted, and won't be any Republican hackers manipulating electronic voting machines. He's also liable to win Ohio because the economy there has hit the skids hard. He's also liable to win Ohio for the same reasons that Democrats have taken over the state, namely that Republicans have become the party of Ohio corruption.

B. He's also liable to win several Rocky Mountain states, because John McCain isn't going to win anywhere near 40% of the Hispanic vote, like Bush the Younger did. Indeed, he'll be lucky to win 30%. That will cost him Colorado and Nevada, not just New Mexico. That will be enough for an Obama win even if he loses Ohio. Karl Rove himself has made the observation that McCain can't win the election without 40% of the Hispanic vote.

C. The same thing that could kill McCain in the Rocky Mountain West could kill him in Florida. While I grant that McCain will do better among Cubans than among the rest of the Hispanic community in the United States, the attitude of Republicans about immigration of Spanish-speaking people may harm him in Florida as well. Considering how close Florida has been in the last two elections, and how much of the Hispanic vote has to go to McCain to keep him competitive, his problem in Florida is more serious than most would acknowledge.

2. National poll numbers are deceptive. With the choice of Palin, McCain has assured that the Bush base will vote for him. Thus, his numbers in states like Nebraska or Idaho, Georgia or Mississippi, have gone up substantially. If McCain's rise in the national polls is based on an improvement of his standing in such states, then it is entirely meaningless, since McCain would have had to win those states to be competitive in any event. Whether he wins them by 55% to 45% or by 70% to 30% doesn't make any difference. In 2000, Bush the Younger won even though he lost the popular vote, and in 2004, Kerry would have won the presidency with 200,000 more votes in Ohio even as he lost the national popular vote by 3%. The size of a Republican victory in Texas, like the size of a Democratic victory in California, may affect national poll numbers but don't affect who wins the overall election.

3. John McCain is scheduled for three debates with Barack Obama before the election, only one of which will be conducted in a format that McCain is any good with. The debates killed Richard Nixon in 1960, killed Jimmy Carter in 1980, and will in all likelihood kill John McCain this year. If he could get through the debates just reminding people that he had been tortured by the North Vietnamese, it would be one thing, but he can't.

4. Obama will still have tens of millions more to spend before the election than McCain will have, in all likelihood. If he spends a reasonable portion of it in Ohio and Florida and on Spanish television stations, McCain is screwed.

5, Obama hasn't been particularly concerned about the recent rise of McCain in national polls, and I think I know why. He has been running a professional campaign from the beginning, even as McCain has been running a half-assed campaign from the beginning. Just as Obama's Democratic victory was based on understanding what he had to do in caucus states while Hillary Clinton was out trying to win big-state primaries, Obama's victory in the general election will be based on understanding what he has to do to win the Kerry states plus either Ohio or states with large Hispanic populations (Florida or Rocky Mountains states). Obama is still in an extremely good position. If I had to bet who will win based on polls conducted in the last week, showing McCain ahead for the very first time, I would still be betting on Obama.

II. The hatred that has flowed from the rural right toward city-dwellers, social liberals or libertarians, and peaceniks since 1980 has dwarfed the contempt that has flowed back from the left during the Bush 43 years toward the Bush base. They don't seem to be able to imagine any compromises one could reach with evil liberals, just as Bush 43 couldn't, so all they have left is bile. Then when it comes back at them from the people they have expressed hatred toward for years, they express shock and surprise, and crow that it will have adverse political consequences.

Don't bet on it. Conservatives imagine that a majority of Americans will embrace "baby-killer" rhetoric and enthusiasm for occupying Muslim countries and screw-the-middle-class economic policies. They figure that e-mails about how Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ or a Muslim or a terrorist will turn the trick again, or that the smear or slander de jour will turn out the American people for the conservatives. They forget that half the American people have been solidly against them for at least the last 5 years, or that Bush 43 has been the most hated President since Harry Truman during the Korean War, or that both of Bush's victories were by the skin of his teeth.

The Republicans have failed. They have failed in foreign affairs, they have failed in economic management, they have failed in routine maintenance of things like bridges and levees, they have failed in holding the American people together, and they have failed in addressing our dependence on foreign energy. No doubt they can count on rural and puritan religious voters to stand with them no matter how badly they fail, and no doubt that means they can always get 40% to 45% of the vote. But that doesn't guarantee them this election by any means.

The truth is that the militaristic puritan right doesn't deserve another four years, and are much less likely to get it than you imagine. The GOP isn't going to win the House, is going to get creamed in the Senate, and a black guy is at least as likely to win the presidency as not. If McCain wins, it may even be worse for the right than if Obama wins. A President McCain wouldn't even be able to govern without making deals non-stop with Democrats in Congress, and he has done so with abandon in the past, to the general anger and scorn of conservatives. The betrayal and fury you will feel if a President McCain (a guy who would have nominated a pro-abortion VP like Lieberman or Ridge if he thought he could have gotten away with it) nominates a Supreme Court Justice to replace Stevens or Ginsburg committed to Roe v. Wade will be the icing on the cake. If McCain wins — don't worry, I still very much doubt he will — by this time next year, your friends will be sending you e-mails about the Manchurian President who was brainwashed by the Vietnamese, and you'll be talking about Corsi's newest book about John McCain.

You might be better off with a President Obama, since at least you won't have to blame yourself for voting for someone who didn't think twice about reaming you.

[Findog]

Montana is irrelevant.

Penn. and Michigan + Colorado + New Mexico = Obama victory

McCain has a lot of work left to do. All Palin did was make this a race again.

Obama needs to hold Kerry's states and add Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. McCain can keep Florida and Ohio in his column. Iowa is practically locked down for Obama and New Mexico he has a lead outside the margin of error. He's running ahead in Colorado too.

Look at it this way: Obama isn't trailing in a single state that Kerry took, whereas McCain has almost certainly lost Iowa to Obama and New Mexico probably as well. New polls out today have Obama up more in New Hampshire and Michigan than the previous round, so it doesn't look like Palin has helped McCain all that much with undecideds, she's just helped him turn pink states red, states that were never going for Obama anyway. The GOP Convention was a rousing success in terms of getting the base behind him. Much less certain is if McCain can win the independents he needs.

[whottt]

Obama needs to hold Kerry's states and add Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. McCain can keep Florida and Ohio in his column. Iowa is practically locked down for Obama and New Mexico he has a lead outside the margin of error. He's running ahead in Colorado too.




:lol

New Mexico's gone red.



Thursday, September 11
Race Poll Results Spread
Alaska Rasmussen McCain 64, Obama 33 McCain +31
New Mexico Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 49 McCain +2


6 point swing in New Mexico since mid-August.

[whottt]

By the way...I just read that McCain will be campaigning in New York as he is being begged by NY Republicans to appear because they strongly feel New York is on the verge of flipping.


I don't think you guys realize the gravity of your situation...


The Republicans don't even have a campaign office in the state of New York.

There is no way McCain would agree to go there unless there was some serious evidence it could be flipped


Keep in mind...Obama only pulled 400k more votes than McCain in New York during the primaries...and that was with 4 other guys on the heavily split Republican ballot...including Guiliani.


You guys better hope there's no Hillary backlash in NYC...but I can almost guarantee you that is where it is truly going to be felt.


New York probably didn't appreciate their candidate being kicked to the curb for Biden.

[JoeChalupa]

By the way...I just read that McCain will be campaigning in New York as he is being begged by NY Republicans to appear because they strongly feel New York is on the verge of flipping.


I don't think you guys realize the gravity of your situation...


The Republicans don't even have a campaign office in the state of New York.

There is no way McCain would agree to go there unless there was some serious evidence it could be flipped


Keep in mind...Obama only pulled 400k more votes than McCain in New York during the primaries...and that was with 4 other guys on the heavily split Republican ballot...including Guiliani.


You guys better hope there's no Hillary backlash in NYC...but I can almost guarantee you that is where it is truly going to be felt.


New York probably didn't appreciate their candidate being kicked to the curb.

Didn't Ed Koch endorse Obama?

[whottt]

Didn't Ed Koch endorse Obama?


So did Hillary...doesn't matter. New Yorkers aren't stupid...like I said.



You guys booted a New York Democrat that puled 18 million votes off your ticket. I can guarantee you that pisses New York off. That's telling them they aren't needed.


And keep in mind...New Yorkers didn't like Bush because they knew he was a Silver Spoon....


McCain, in addition to being Irish which will pretty much get every firefighter and cop in NYC on his side, is a true patriot with a record of proving it...they will react differently to him than they did Bush. He's a guy they will respect...Bush had a brief chance to gain the admiration of NY for all time but he fucked up when he went into Iraq instead of getting Usama FIRST.


They'll give McCain a chance to win them over..

[ididnotnothat]

So did Hillary...doesn't matter. New Yorkers aren't stupid...like I said.



You guys booted a New York Democrat that puled 18 million votes off your ticket. I can guarantee you that pisses New York off. That's telling them they aren't needed.


And keep in mind...New Yorkers didn't like Bush because they knew he was a Silver Spoon....


McCain, in addition to being Irish which will pretty much get every firefighter and cop in NYC on his side, is a true patriot with a record of proving it...they will react differently to him than they did Bush. He's a guy they will respect...Bush had a brief chance to gain the admiration of NY for all time but he fucked up when he went into Iraq instead of getting Usama FIRST.

You guys? She lost the primary.

[whottt]

Forgot to mention...there are over a half a million Vietnam Vets that live in New York...without a doubt this is the last chance a Vietnam Vet will ever have to be in the Whitehouse, and if McCain doesn't make it, Vietnam will be the only American War that never produced a President. I think that's important to those guys from Vietnam...especially since they didn't get much appreciation from the American public the first time around.

[whottt]

You guys? She lost the primary.

Tell it to NY.

I can't wait to see the next NY poll....

[Findog]

:lol

New Mexico's gone red.



Thursday, September 11
Race Poll Results Spread
Alaska Rasmussen McCain 64, Obama 33 McCain +31
New Mexico Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 49 McCain +2


6 point swing in New Mexico since mid-August.

That's within the margin of error.

[Findog]

I'm especially amused by the idea that NY is in play for mccain. very few states are going to flip from 2004. Mayyybe McCain can pick up Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, and Obama can't win without flipping 18 EVS out of New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Florida.

[Findog]

Obama +6 in Jersey....hmmm. Jersey is definitely a flippable state.

No, it isn't.



Uh...what were you guys saying about Montana earlier?


Montana and a # of other pink states were never in play for Obama. Palin turned those states red. Find me a quote where I spooged over Obama winning Montana.

[whottt]

That's within the margin of error.



LOL you're right...that poll is excellent news for Obama.

[whottt]

Find me a quote where I spooged over Obama winning Montana.

Find me a quote where I said Findog was the one talking about Montana...don't put your ass in front of my foot and then cry victim.

[whottt]

I'm especially amused by the idea that NY is in play for mccain. very few states are going to flip from 2004. Mayyybe McCain can pick up Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, and Obama can't win without flipping 18 EVS out of New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Florida.


I don't think NY is in play yet...I think it will be though.

I know Jersey is going to be in play...without a doubt.


But you need to realize that some polls in both Jersey and NY only showed Obama with a 6-7 point lead...in mid July.

[Findog]

LOL you're right...that poll is excellent news for Obama.

Well, you're right, whottt has spoken. New Mexico will be red once again on the basis of a poll within the margin of error. No need to even hold an election.

[Findog]

On Sept 3, 2004, polls had Kerry up in Iowa 51-47, he lost that state. That same day, polls in Pennsylvania had Bush up 48-47, he lost that state.

Sorry, whottt, McCain might take NM, but I'm not fretting over a single poll.

[whottt]

Last week I said I thought NY would come into play...you guys told me I was fucking crazy...lo and behold, now McCain is going to be campaigning there at the request of their Republicans.

Don't tell me I don't have a grasp on this.

And I've pointed out that NY can be flipped if you can flip one of their major boroughs that goes 90% Democrat...like Queens.

And Queens has turned on a time before, that's how they wound up with Guiliani as mayor and Ptaki as Govenor.

Guess where most of the Irish in NY are...


So many factors working against Democrats in NY right now...


Guiliani pushed McCain.
The greatest Jewish Politician and Democrats pushed McCain.
Hillary got fucked.
McCain actually is a war hero as opposed to a Silver Spoon.
McCain isn't from Texas.
Obama was never popular there to begin with, and I don't see how that's changed.



And oh yeah...NY has over 1 million more female voters than males.

[j-6]

Forgot to mention...there are over a half a million Vietnam Vets that live in New York...without a doubt this is the last chance a Vietnam Vet will ever have to be in the Whitehouse, and if McCain doesn't make it, Vietnam will be the only American War that never produced a President. I think that's important to those guys from Vietnam...especially since they didn't get much appreciation from the American public the first time around.

New York is three very distinct areas politically - the city, the Island, and upstate. While upstate (rural) will almost go certainly go McCain, there's no way NYC proper does - even with Rudy and Bloomberg in his corner. They gave Kerry 75% of the vote last go round and hold almost half the state's population.

If McCain can get the Long Island (I'm not including Queens and Brooklyn - they're boroughs) vote, he may stand a chance. My father-in-law is active in his campaign up there and he thinks McCain will win Nassau and Suffolk counties handily. There's still some Spitzer backwash that makes the affluent suburban type uncomfortable voting Democratic.

Anyway, that's a tough place to make a stand - almost like trying to fill an inside straight. I'd concentrate somewhere else if I was him.

[Findog]

McCain is probably just going to NY to fundraise, he's crazy if he thinks that state is going for him. If NY goes for McCain, then this will be a historic landslide on par with Nixon 72, LBJ 64 and Reagan 84. McCain's fortunes are up, and he might win this thing, but not with NY in his column.

[whottt]

New York is three very distinct areas politically - the city, the Island, and upstate. While upstate (rural) will almost go certainly go McCain, there's no way NYC proper does - even with Rudy and Bloomberg in his corner. They gave Kerry 75% of the vote last go round and hold almost half the state's population.

If McCain can get the Long Island (I'm not including Queens and Brooklyn - they're boroughs) vote, he may stand a chance. My father-in-law is active in his campaign up there and he thinks McCain will win Nassau and Suffolk counties handily. There's still some Spitzer backwash that makes the affluent suburban type uncomfortable voting Democratic.

Anyway, that's a tough place to make a stand - almost like trying to fill an inside straight. I'd concentrate somewhere else if I was him.

IMO, the only area McCain doesn't have an inside track of flipping is Manhattan...McCain'll flip Obama before he flips Manhattan.

All it takes is to flip one of their major boroughs.


Maybe they should play up the fact that Palin was born Roman Catholic...if they can get the Italians and the Irish behind them they ought to be able to flip one of those boroughs.


And I like I mentioned earlier in another thread...the liberals and reform jews have been moving out of NY for much of the past 4 years and they are being replaced with Hacidic and Orthodox Jews...don't tell me those guys are going to vote for someone named Hussein.


I'm not saying NY can be flipped...but I do think it can be put in play.


And it's worth a visit there just for fund raising.

[Gino]

After the debates...........all this poll shit will flip again. I dont see McCain or Palin holding up to the Democrats in a debate.

Obama did not do well in the debates against Hillary.

[whottt]

That's within the margin of error.

And BTW, that 6 point swing is not within the margin of error.

[Findog]

Obama did not do well in the debates against Hillary.

On substance, or on style? Gore slaughtered Bush on substance every single debate, but Bush came across as more likeable and the debates ended up helping him. For that reason, I expect Biden to slaughter Palin on issues and substance, but she'll "win" anyways since she'll come across as "folksy" and will have a couple of zingers to use.

[Findog]

And BTW, that 6 point swing is not within the margin of error.

McCain got a big VP splash by picking a political unknown, then he had his convention. The polls should reflect a McCain surge and bounce over the last 10 days. I'd be extremely worried if the election were tomorrow. The McCain surge is reflected in national polls. We'll see in 2-3 weeks if that was a permanent bounce.

[whottt]

On substance, or on style? Gore slaughtered Bush on substance every single debate, but Bush came across as more likeable and the debates ended up helping him. For that reason, I expect Biden to slaughter Palin on issues and substance, but she'll "win" anyways since she'll come across as "folksy" and will have a couple of zingers to use.


#1. Palin is 25 billion times more likeable than Biden or Bush. She's in Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan's league.

#2. Biden has been wrong a lot. The surge is going to be stuck up his ass.

A. Even Obama says it was a success now.
B. Palin supported it.
C. So did McCain.
D. Most Americans consider it a success.


Please do not delude yourself into believing Biden is any kind of a positive in this election...he is dead weight.

Was a mistake to give Biden the VP.

[whottt]

And this isn't 2004...W was one of the most unlikable Presidents in US history...there is no way he should have been re-elected...and it was the Democrats that got him re-elected. I cannot emphasize this enough.

[JoeChalupa]

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080911DailyUpdateGraph1_p1m9n3.gif

[Mr. Body]

#1. Palin is 25 billion times more likeable than Biden or Bush. She's in Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan's league.

Dude, you wankers were so ALL OVER George W. Bush FOR YEARS, you wore Bush Underoos to bed.

[Findog]

#1. Palin is 25 billion times more likeable than Biden or Bush. She's in Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan's league.

Wow, she's been a national figure all of 2 weeks and has been sequestered from the press. Of course, she's "likeable," so is "Mom's Apple Pie," "July 4th" and "youth soccer."




A. Even Obama says it was a success now.

I don't think that's quite right. I think is position is that Iraq was a mistake from the start and any tactical success from the surge is totally divorced from the strategic disaster in Iraq. Truth is the Iraqi govt and the Bush Admin. reached an agreement on a troop withdrawal after Obama called for it. Truth is, violence in Iraq is down is because we're paying off the Iraqis. We could've saved some money by just leaving. The "surge" didn't suddenly make the war popular.



D. Most Americans consider it a success.

If the GOP wants to talk up an unpopular war, I would be delighted.

[Crookshanks]

September 11, 2008
The Sarah Surge in Black and White
By Lawrence Kudlow

It's so much fun reading the newspapers these days. The Sarah surge continues to dominate all the political news while the Palin-McCain -- er, McCain-Palin -- ticket is forging ahead in the polls.

But let's be fair. Even though Sen. McCain is now riding Gov. Palin's skirt tails, he was the one who made the brilliant decision to put her on the ticket. And the louder the Left screams the better Sarah seems to do. So much better that for the first time the Intrade pay-to-play prediction market -- which long has had Obama winning by 20 to 25 points in November -- now shows a McCain lead. Unbelievable.

And look at all these headlines. The Washington Post has "Palin Energizing Women from All Walks of Life." In particular, white women with children at home give Palin a favorable rating of 80 percent.

Then there's this lead story in the Wall Street Journal: "Palin Lifts McCain's Support." A WSJ/NBC poll now has the presidential race even, and it's the Palin effect that explains the shift.

One-in-four Hillary Clinton voters now say the Palin pick makes them more likely to vote for McCain. And traditional Republican states like Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, and Alaska -- which Obama thought he'd fight for -- are now safely back in the McCain camp.

A Bloomberg news article is titled, "McCain Poll Surge, Fundraising Give Democrats Election Jitters." It talks about how Democrats now worry they'll lose the election. Rep. Arthur Davis, the Alabama Democrat who was Obama's Harvard Law classmate, says the GOP just had its best week in four years.

And Obama & Co. are completely flummoxed as to what to do about the Palin phenomenon. The normally unflappable Sen. Obama actually says, "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig." Whew. That one will add several points to the McCain-Palin column. "Holy Sow!" reads the New York Post headline, hammering home the mistake.

Even Camille Paglia, a strong Obama supporter, is waxing rhapsodic over Sarah Palin. Paglia calls her "a new style of muscular American feminism"; a "brash ambassador from America's pioneer past"; an "optimistic pragmatist like Ronald Reagan." Following Palin's GOP convention speech, I compared the governor to a Western pioneer version of Margaret Thatcher. I'm glad to see Ms. Paglia pick up on that.

A story by Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) in the Wall Street Journal is titled, "Yes, Palin Did Stop that Bridge." The senator says Palin may once have supported the infamous Bridge to Nowhere, but she then killed it. And let's not get into the flip-flop argument. Both Obama and McCain have flip-flopped this year. And anyway, who cares if you flip-flop if you land in the right place? Sen. DeMint notes that Palin cut nearly 10 percent of Alaska's budget. And he should have reminded folks that Obama voted for the pork-barrel farm bill -- chock full of earmarks and waste -- and then voted again to overturn President Bush's veto of the bill.

A USA Today headline says "Palin Did Not Ban Books in Wasilla as Mayor." After interviewing a bunch of local folks, the author simply could not confirm the charge made by left-wing bloggers.

In "The Hunt for Sarah October," the Wall Street Journal's John Fund writes about a 30-lawyer S.W.A.T. team of Obama Democrats descending on Alaska in search of dirt related to "Palin's troopergate." They found nothing that hasn't already aired about Palin's alcoholic ex-brother-in-law who tasered his stepson.

Over in the Journal's Political Diary, Steve Moore says GOP House members back from vacation are actually talking about picking up seats in November, with a recent USA Today poll putting GOP members up four points on the question: Who do you support, the Republican or the Democrat for Congress in your district?

Even the financial pages are looking better. Oil is about to drop under $100 a barrel. Gold is plunging. And the greenback continues to rally in true King Dollar fashion. Is there a Sarah Palin effect here, too?

On the campaign trail, Gov. Palin says, "We're going to drill now to make this nation energy independent." And she adds that she's "ready to help John McCain bring tax relief to all Americans." That's the disciplined Sarah on message. She signaled this in St. Paul when she said the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull is lipstick. Obama picked up on the dark side of that metaphor. But Palin's really saying: Don't tread on me. Don't try to intimidate me. I am a strong, tough mom who is determined to succeed in politics.

That's just what she's doing.

[JoeChalupa]

Can't argue with that but she was NOT his first choice he was persuaded to choose Palin. It was his best flip flop yet.

[florige]

September 11, 2008
The Sarah Surge in Black and White
By Lawrence Kudlow

It's so much fun reading the newspapers these days. The Sarah surge continues to dominate all the political news while the Palin-McCain -- er, McCain-Palin -- ticket is forging ahead in the polls.

But let's be fair. Even though Sen. McCain is now riding Gov. Palin's skirt tails, he was the one who made the brilliant decision to put her on the ticket. And the louder the Left screams the better Sarah seems to do. So much better that for the first time the Intrade pay-to-play prediction market -- which long has had Obama winning by 20 to 25 points in November -- now shows a McCain lead. Unbelievable.

And look at all these headlines. The Washington Post has "Palin Energizing Women from All Walks of Life." In particular, white women with children at home give Palin a favorable rating of 80 percent.

Then there's this lead story in the Wall Street Journal: "Palin Lifts McCain's Support." A WSJ/NBC poll now has the presidential race even, and it's the Palin effect that explains the shift.

One-in-four Hillary Clinton voters now say the Palin pick makes them more likely to vote for McCain. And traditional Republican states like Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, and Alaska -- which Obama thought he'd fight for -- are now safely back in the McCain camp.

A Bloomberg news article is titled, "McCain Poll Surge, Fundraising Give Democrats Election Jitters." It talks about how Democrats now worry they'll lose the election. Rep. Arthur Davis, the Alabama Democrat who was Obama's Harvard Law classmate, says the GOP just had its best week in four years.

And Obama & Co. are completely flummoxed as to what to do about the Palin phenomenon. The normally unflappable Sen. Obama actually says, "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig." Whew. That one will add several points to the McCain-Palin column. "Holy Sow!" reads the New York Post headline, hammering home the mistake.

Even Camille Paglia, a strong Obama supporter, is waxing rhapsodic over Sarah Palin. Paglia calls her "a new style of muscular American feminism"; a "brash ambassador from America's pioneer past"; an "optimistic pragmatist like Ronald Reagan." Following Palin's GOP convention speech, I compared the governor to a Western pioneer version of Margaret Thatcher. I'm glad to see Ms. Paglia pick up on that.

A story by Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) in the Wall Street Journal is titled, "Yes, Palin Did Stop that Bridge." The senator says Palin may once have supported the infamous Bridge to Nowhere, but she then killed it. And let's not get into the flip-flop argument. Both Obama and McCain have flip-flopped this year. And anyway, who cares if you flip-flop if you land in the right place? Sen. DeMint notes that Palin cut nearly 10 percent of Alaska's budget. And he should have reminded folks that Obama voted for the pork-barrel farm bill -- chock full of earmarks and waste -- and then voted again to overturn President Bush's veto of the bill.

A USA Today headline says "Palin Did Not Ban Books in Wasilla as Mayor." After interviewing a bunch of local folks, the author simply could not confirm the charge made by left-wing bloggers.

In "The Hunt for Sarah October," the Wall Street Journal's John Fund writes about a 30-lawyer S.W.A.T. team of Obama Democrats descending on Alaska in search of dirt related to "Palin's troopergate." They found nothing that hasn't already aired about Palin's alcoholic ex-brother-in-law who tasered his stepson.

Over in the Journal's Political Diary, Steve Moore says GOP House members back from vacation are actually talking about picking up seats in November, with a recent USA Today poll putting GOP members up four points on the question: Who do you support, the Republican or the Democrat for Congress in your district?

Even the financial pages are looking better. Oil is about to drop under $100 a barrel. Gold is plunging. And the greenback continues to rally in true King Dollar fashion. Is there a Sarah Palin effect here, too?

On the campaign trail, Gov. Palin says, "We're going to drill now to make this nation energy independent." And she adds that she's "ready to help John McCain bring tax relief to all Americans." That's the disciplined Sarah on message. She signaled this in St. Paul when she said the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull is lipstick. Obama picked up on the dark side of that metaphor. But Palin's really saying: Don't tread on me. Don't try to intimidate me. I am a strong, tough mom who is determined to succeed in politics.

That's just what she's doing.




:lol Enjoy it now....

[Crookshanks]

:lol Enjoy it now....

yep! All the way to the White House!

[Findog]

Yeah, Lawrence Kudlow and John Fund are such unbiased journalists. And he has a good slip here:


The Sarah surge continues to dominate all the political news while the Palin-McCain -- er, McCain-Palin -- ticket is forging ahead in the polls.

That's McCain's biggest problem, she's the VP nominee, not the head of the ticket.

[whottt]

Dude, you wankers were so ALL OVER George W. Bush FOR YEARS, you wore Bush Underoos to bed.


False...I voted for Bush in 2004 because the Democrats had a far stupider war stance than Bush did and were running on a UN/Europe asskisser appeasement ticket.

That is the only reason I voted for Bush in 2004.

I did not vote for Bush in 2000, I voted for Gore, and before that I voted for Clinton twice. In fact I was saying a lot of the things about Bush before he was elected in 2000 than liberals have been saying every since.

The main difference is I have never thought Bush would deliberately do anything to hurt Amierica. The guy genuinely loves this country and if you read beyond the smears this much is obvious.

That said...not for one second have I ever thought he had the diplomatic skills or leadership abilities we really need in a President, but what he had to offer was better than what Kerry had to offer.


Realy the only postive thing about Bush skill as President is that I knew he would be stubborn and not back down to those politicizing the war. Something we couldn't afford to do once we went into Iraq. And he didn't. No matter how brutal and ugly it got.


I have more respect for Bush than I did in 2000 when I voted against him, and in hindsight it was probably for the best that he beat Gore. I've learned a lot about him since then and I like him better now than I did in 2000...that said, I wish we'd had better options on both sides of the ticket the past 8 years. We needed someone with diplomatic and communication skills...who wasn't an asskisser.

[whottt]

That's McCain's biggest problem, she's the VP nominee, not the head of the ticket.


It's not a problem at all....

[2centsworth]

Yeah, Lawrence Kudlow and John Fund are such unbiased journalists. And he has a good slip here:



That's McCain's biggest problem, she's the VP nominee, not the head of the ticket.

that's a problem for the dems, because it doesn't seem they can beat the #2 much less the #1.

[Findog]

that's a problem for the dems, because it doesn't seem they can beat the #2 much less the #1.

I don't think so at all, "Sarah Mania" is because she's the latest chew toy. She can't carry him to the Presidency.

And it's all part of a briar patch that McCain wants the Dems to enter. Turn this election into a referendum on Sarah Palin as a person. That's the only way McCain can win this thing. He's not GWB, but they're both Republicans, and Obama can credibly claim that he will continue the bulk of Bush's policies. Turn this into whether or not Obama called her a pig, or she's a good mother, or some other bullshit and the Dems lose. Obama and his campaign are too smart for that.

[Findog]

It's not a problem at all....

Not for Obama it's not.

[florige]

Looks like her little mishap has shrunk this lead some.......



http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/09/gallup-daily--1.html?loc=interstitialskip#uslPageReturn

[florige]

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080911DailyUpdateGraph1_p1m9n3.gif



Looks like it's been withered down to one point again as of today.....

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/category/cnn-poll-of-polls/


I'm willing to bet by next week it will be tied or Obama will be up again.
Some convention bounce.........:lmao:rollin:lmao:rollin

And as stupid as Palin looked on televison the other night, I can only imagine how's she going to look when she debates Biden on the 26th. Better start cramming her head now.....:lmao I love it!!

[SpursFanFirst]

Looks like it's been withered down to one point again as of today.....

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/category/cnn-poll-of-polls/


I'm willing to bet by next week it will be tied or Obama will be up again.
Some convention bounce.........:lmao:rollin:lmao:rollin

And as stupid as Palin looked on televison the other night, I can only imagine how's she going to look when she debates Biden on the 26th. Better start cramming her head now.....:lmao I love it!!

Except it will be LIVE and can't be edited to make her look bad.

Edit: Check out DarrinS' post at the bottom of the page. He has a portion of the transcript from the ABC interview. The parts that were edited out are in bold print.

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=104677&page=11

[Mr. Peabody]

Except it will be LIVE and can't be edited to make her look bad.

Do you really think it was edited to make her look bad?

[SpursFanFirst]

Do you really think it was edited to make her look bad?

Check out my comment right above yours. I went back and added a link.

[Yonivore]

Do you really think it was edited to make her look bad?
Yes. Well, edited in an attempt to make her look bad.

[whottt]

Do you really think it was edited to make her look bad?



To the degree that a lot of people are going to call for Charlie Gibson to be fired. He is dishonest.

[SpursFanFirst]

To the degree that a lot of people are going to call for Charlie Gibson to be fired. He is dishonest.

Do you really think people will be calling for him to be fired? Or will they ask for a public apology followed by airing the interview in its entirety?