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View Full Version : Which Active Players Are Headed To The HOF? (Hoopsworld)



duncan228
09-09-2008, 02:16 PM
I thought this could be a fun list to play with, even if it's Hoopsworld that's the starting point. Of course, with Duncan being the first one listed it caught my attention. :)

Which Active Players are Headed to the Hall of Fame? (http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9952)
By: Tommy Beer

Driving back home from Springfield, Massachusetts this weekend, after taking in the 2008 Hall of Fame enshrinement ceremony on Friday night (as an aside, every basketball fan in America owes it to themselves to visit the HOF at least once – it is heaven for a hoops junkie), I got to thinking: which active players are locks to one day be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame.

When I sat down and started starting digging through career statistics, playoff scoring averages, and other pertinent information, it turns out there are seven players that I feel are lead-pipe locks to make the HOF. They are listed below.

While I don't think too many people could disagree that these first seven will wind up in Springfield, what I found interesting was where to draw the line between the "locks" and the borderline/probable selections, and then the also-rans/unlikely... Thus, I submitted a few quick thoughts on the remaining choices.

Without further adieu, let's run down the seven no-doubt, first-ballot selections:

1. Tim Duncan – Duncan's Hall of Fame credentials are second to none: Back-to-back NBA MVP's, 4 rings, three-time Finals MVP. He is also the only player in NBA history to receive All-NBA and All-Defensive honors in his first 11 seasons. He is an absolutely dominant force on both ends of the court, and steps up his game when it matters most, as evidenced by his increased averages in the postseason and his Finals MVP trophies. For my money, he is the greatest power forward that ever lived. While I suppose that opinion could be contested, nobody would ever argue that Duncan won't be enshrined in Springfield five years after he hangs up his Nike's.

2. Shaquille O'Neal – The last of a dying breed. O'Neal was his generation's greatest pure center and, during his prime, one of the most intimidating players to ever set foot on a basketball court. Here is a brief résumé, courtesy of NBA.com: One of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players and one of the most prolific scorers in league history. He owns a career scoring average of 25.6 points, the ninth-highest in league history, and ranks 11th all-time in scoring (25,908) in 1,013 career games. The 16-year veteran is a career 58-percent shooter, third-highest in NBA history, and has led the league in field goal accuracy nine times, matching Wilt Chamberlain's all-time record. O'Neal has averaged 11.5 rebounds (21st-NBA history) and grabbed 11,630 boards… There is no doubting that the Hall of Fame is in his future. But one question that could certainly be debated: If you had to pick one player, in their prime, to build a franchise around, would you take Duncan or Shaq? (I'd go with Timmy D., if only because he is a more reliable end-game option on the offensive end.)

3. Kobe Bryant – The most popular player on planet Earth, Kobe is a lock as well. The lack of a NBA Finals MVP trophy, signifying that he hasn't won a ring "on his own," is of relevance only in debates regarding Kobe's place among the game's all-time greats. Although he lost an opportunity to cement his legacy a few months ago, Kobe still has definitely earned a spot among the NBA's greatest payers. And while the comparisons to Michael Jordan are utter nonsense (MJ has 6 NBA Finals MVP's compared to Kobe's zero), Bryant has already done more than enough to secure his spot as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. His career averages of 25 PPG, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, speak volumes. In addition to his offensive prowess, KB24 has also been named to the All-NBA Defensive first or second teams eight out of the last nine seasons.

4. Allen Iverson – When he first entered the league, generously listed at six-feet tall, the critics claimed AI would never be able to handle the physical beating the NBA would deliver. Well, 12 years later, he is still proving doubters wrong. And, as result, you can punch his ticket to the Hall. Iverson's has a league MVP and four scoring titles under his belt, and his career scoring average (27.7 PPG) currently ranks him third all-time, behind Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. Anytime your career accomplishments are mentioned in the same sentence as MJ and the Big Dipper... that's good.

5. Jason Kidd – I feel one of the key criteria for Hall of Fame worthiness is whether a player was the absolute best at his position for a sustained period of time. For Jason Kidd, that answer is an emphatic 'yes.' During the early part of this decade, when he led the Nets to two straight Finals appearances, J Kidd was unquestionably the best PG in the NBA. In his prime, there were very few players that could control and impact the game like he did. He has dished out more assists (9,497) and than any other active player in the league. Kidd also is the active steals leader (2,038). The true testament to Kidd's all-around greatness is the 100 career triple-doubles he has racked up, which places him second all-time behind only Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson.

6. Kevin Garnett – Coming into the 2007-2008 NBA season, the only knock against KG was that he couldn't be depended upon in crunch time, and thus had never won a championship. Well, if there was any doubt, the ring currently residing on his finger should settle that debate. Much like Jason Kidd, Garnett's best attribute was his ability to contribute in so many different ways. Looking for proof? KG is the only player in NBA history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists per game for six consecutive seasons. He also stands alone as the only NBA'er to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists per game for nine consecutive seasons. Lastly, Garnett is only player ever to accumulate 20,000 points, 11,000 rebounds, 4,000 assists, 1,200 steals, and 1,500 blocks in his career.

7. Steve Nash – Make no mistake; Nash was/is a great player, but being in the right place at the right time and having his best years when he did, is the main reason he is headed to the Hall. If you look at his career numbers (14.3 points, 7.9 assists, 3 rebounds), they are solid but not jaw-dropping. In fact, as a 30-year old, following the 2004 season in Dallas, the odds were heavily stacked against him ever entering the HOF. However, Nash then landed in Phoenix and teamed up with Mike D'Antoni and the rest, as they say, is history. After a few outstanding seasons in the Valley of the Sun, Nash had added something to his résumé that assures he'll get a plaque in Springfield: back-to-back MVP awards. Nash is one of only nine players in the history of the sport to be able to claim that distinction; the other eight are Duncan, Moses Malone, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Michael Jordan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Despite limited postseason success, and never reaching an NBA Finals – Nash is destined due to those two terrific seasons.

* The Next Rung – The 'Very Probable' Category:

Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk has a NBA MVP on his résumé and has carried his team to NBA Finals. It is important to note that every player that has ever won an NBA MVP award has either already been inducted into the Hall of Fame, or will be elected once they are eligible. Thus, we can safely bet Dirk will get his plaque.

Paul Pierce – The recently awarded NBA Finals MVP Award provides an enormous boost to his candidacy. A few more decent years by both Dirk and Pierce should bump them up into the "lock" category.

* Next Tier – Borderline:

Tracy McGrady: T-Mac's overall numbers are excellent, but never advancing past the first round of the playoffs is tough to overlook.

Vince Carter: I may be in the minority, but I could never vote VC into the Hall of Fame. Personally, I think the HOF should be reserved for the players that gave 110% every time they stepped on the floor, as opposed to those who tended to coast and skate by solely on their ability. Specifically, check out VC's career numbers and check his production from the first 20-games of the 2004-2005 season. Over that 20-game stretch, Carter averaged just 15.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, while shooting 69.4% from the free-throw line. VC flat-out quit on the Raptors and the city of Toronto. Want proof? Once he got traded to the Nets, over the final 57 games that same season, he averaged 27.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, while shooting 81.7% from the stripe. I have a real hard time looking past that. (Similarly, I could never look at Scottie Pippen the quite the same way after he took himself out of Game 3 of the 1994 Eastern Conference with 1.4 seconds left on the clock, after Phil Jackson decided Toni Kukoc would take the game's final shot. But that is a story for another day…)

Manu Ginobili – One of the most accomplished European players of all-time, Manu is a "winner" in the truest sense of the word. The selection committee usually looks favorably upon international achievements, so Ginobili, who always stepped his game up when it matter most, will have his supporters.

Ray Allen – Ray-Ray has always been an accomplished scorer, and now has a ring, in addition to always having one of the most aesthetically pleasing jumpers in NBA history. But I am just not sure he deserves a place among the greatest to ever play the game. Was he ever the best two-guard in the NBA? No. He never made an ALL-NBA first-team, and made the second-team just once…

* Next Tier - Borderline/Less-likely:

Chris Webber – Webber's last few injury plagued seasons took a lot of luster of what was, statistically speaking, a phenomenal career. It is easy to forget just how good he was in his prime. C-Webb is one of only six players in NBA history to post career averages of at least 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. The five other players are Elgin Baylor, Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, Billy Cunningham, and Kevin Garnett. Still, Webber all too often disappeared in big spots and never advanced to an NBA Finals.

Chauncey Billups – Billups was maddeningly inconsistent over his first five years in the league, before arriving in Detroit and really finding his comfort zone. In his six seasons in Motown, the Pistons have advanced to at least the Eastern Conference finals each year. In 2004, the Pistons won the title and Billups was awarded the NBA Finals MVP trophy. From 1991 thru 2005, there were only five different players named NBA Finals MVP: Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, and Chauncey Billups.

Dikembe Mutombo – While never much of a scorer, Mutombo was a dominant defender and rebounder. He won the Defensive Player of the Year award four times and led the league in total rebounds four times as well. He is an eight-time all-star. In addition, his humanitarian work is legendary, and is a true ambassador of the game.

* Next Tier – Interesting/Unlikely:

Robert Horry – Based strictly on numbers, Horry shouldn't even sniff the Hall. But if you include his jewelry collection (seven rings) and postseason heroics, Horry will get a few votes. Some pertinent facts to support his case: Big Shot Bob is one of only nine players to have won seven or more championships, and the only one who did not play on the 1960s Celtics. He is one of only three players to win multiple NBA Championships with two different teams in consecutive seasons and one of only two players to win titles with three different teams. He is the all-time leader in playoff games played, having surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar during the 2008 playoffs. Horry is second on the all-time list of three-pointers made in the playoffs, behind only Reggie Miller. He also holds the record for three-pointers all-time in the NBA Finals with 53, having eclipsed Michael Jordan's previous record of 42…. I don't think he'll ever get in, but he makes an interesting candidate considering how often some fans and media members claim that winning defines greatness.

Ben Wallace – He and Dikembe are the only two players in league history to each capture four NBA Defensive Player of the Year awards. (Of course, the award only came into existence relatively recently (1983). I assume Bill Russell would have been named the league's best defensive player once or twice.) Big Ben is also the one of only four players to lead the league in boarding and blocks the same season - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Walton, and Hakeem Olajuwon are the other three. He is also the only undrafted player to ever be voted as a All-Star Game starter. In some respects, he is the anti-Vince Carter. However, as good as he was defensively, Wallace was that inept offensively. He is a career 41% shooter from the free-throw line.

Alonzo Mourning - One of the NBA's most intense competitors, Zo has an All-NBA first-team selection and an NBA title on his résumé.

Rasheed Wallace - One of the more underrated players of his generation, 'Sheed did more than collect technicals. He possessed other-worldly talent.

Grant Hill - If I had written this column in summer of 2000, Hill would have been considered all but a lock. After his first six seasons in Detroit, he looked like the second-coming. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit and Hill was never the same.

* The Young Guns:

Lastly, in an attempt to answer a few questions/complaints before they arise – players such as LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Paul are too young to be considered. Basically, I tried to look at guys aged 30 and over. I also didn't list guys in their late 20's, such as Elton Brand, Yao Ming, Carlos Boozer, etc. These guys still have too much career ahead of them. The next few years will determine upon which list they land.

Regarding the super-talented neophytes, suppose King James and/or D. Wade retired tomorrow in order to play baseball or become movie stars, it is difficult to argue these young guys have done enough to earn Hall of Fame distinction. For instance, players like Penny Hardaway and Grant Hill looked to well on their way, before there careers took a precipitous decline due to injuries. After his first few seasons, some analysts believed Penny would be better than Magic by the time he retired. Penny was named First Team All-NBA back-to-back in his second and third seasons. As a point of reference, even LeBron didn't match that feat. And Wade has still never been named to an All-NBA First Team. Make no mistake; I believe that by the time he retires, LeBron will likely be considered the best non-center in NBA history not named Michael Jordan. But the lesson we have learned is that we have to let these guys career's play out…

Hemotivo
09-09-2008, 02:37 PM
1. Tim Duncan – Duncan's Hall of Fame credentials are second to none: Back-to-back NBA MVP's, 4 rings, three-time Finals MVP. He is also the only player in NBA history to receive All-NBA and All-Defensive honors in his first 11 seasons. He is an absolutely dominant force on both ends of the court, and steps up his game when it matters most, as evidenced by his increased averages in the postseason and his Finals MVP trophies. For my money, he is the greatest power forward that ever lived. While I suppose that opinion could be contested, nobody would ever argue that Duncan won't be enshrined in Springfield five years after he hangs up his Nike's.


http://zapapedia.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/adidas-ts-tim-duncan.jpg

Ed Helicopter Jones
09-09-2008, 02:40 PM
Argentina's gold medal I'd say puts Manu more into the 'very probable' category.

Slomo
09-09-2008, 02:47 PM
Argentina's gold medal I'd say puts Manu more into the 'very probable' category.
Add to it that he was also Euroleague and NBA champion, I'm pretty sure he's a lock.

urunobili
09-09-2008, 02:49 PM
:lmao at Dirk and Pierce > Manu on their chances :lmao

xtremesteven33
09-09-2008, 02:51 PM
Duncan and Manu should be locks no doubt

duncan228
09-09-2008, 02:51 PM
http://zapapedia.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/adidas-ts-tim-duncan.jpg

I came the closest I ever have to correcting an article. I wasn't sure how many people would notice. Nice catch.

DunkingDuncan
09-09-2008, 02:56 PM
Dirk and Manu are locks, not "very probable" or "borderline."

DunkingDuncan
09-09-2008, 03:05 PM
Robert Horry – Based strictly on numbers, Horry shouldn't even sniff the Hall. But if you include his jewelry collection (seven rings) and postseason heroics, Horry will get a few votes.

K.C. Jones, based strictly on numbers, shouldn't even sniff the Hall either. But he got there because of his 8 rings.

smeagol
09-09-2008, 03:06 PM
AI and Kidd are very probable, not locks.

Manu is a lock.

VC and McGrady have little chances, IMO.

FromWayDowntown
09-09-2008, 03:11 PM
The guy doesn't understand how international players are treated in the voting process -- if he did, he'd understand that Manu is a better fit with his first 7 than in the borderline group.

This board has had plenty of discussion of who will or won't reach the Hall of Fame and I think the author presents a pretty reasonable assessment of the odds of the players involved. I'm not sure that I'd rank Pierce, McGrady, or Carter as highly as this guy does, but that's a matter of preferences.

I also think that if the standards were historically consistent, Grant Hill would belong in the first group of locks, but so too would Ralph Sampson and Christian Laettner. I'm sure that the standards aren't consistent, though, and I'm certain that only Hill still has a chance to reach the Hall -- and I think his chances are appropriately seen as somewhat slim.

FromWayDowntown
09-09-2008, 03:17 PM
AI and Kidd are very probable, not locks.

Manu is a lock.

VC and McGrady have little chances, IMO.

Iverson is a mortal lock at this point. He's got an MVP -- which is probably enough by itself. But he's has been a dominant scorer in this era and is clearly among the greatest scorers of all-time (3rd highest scoring average in history). On top of that, he's been consistently among the best players in the game throughout his career -- he's been First Team All-League on 3 occasions, Second Team All-League on 3 other occasions, and Third Team All-League once. 7 All-NBA selections is nothing to sneeze at.

ShoogarBear
09-09-2008, 03:18 PM
Technically there is supposed to be no distinction between NCAA and NBA achievements when it comes to the Basketball HoF. On that basis, Sampson, Laettner, and Hill should all be first-ballot locks to be there. John Wooden is in the HoF . . . as a player! (in addition to as a coach). Personally, I think it's very stupid to not make that distinction. There should be separate NCAA, NBA, and International wings, so that the qualifications and timelines for getting it would be clear.

ShoogarBear
09-09-2008, 03:19 PM
Iverson is a mortal lock at this point. He's got an MVP -- which is probably enough by itself. But he's has been a dominant scorer in this era and is clearly among the greatest scorers of all-time (3rd highest scoring average in history). On top of that, he's been consistently among the best players in the game throughout his career -- he's been First Team All-League on 3 occasions, Second Team All-League on 3 other occasions, and Third Team All-League once. 7 All-NBA selections is nothing to sneeze at.

Kidd is an absolute lock, too.

Brutalis
09-09-2008, 03:26 PM
Boo ya. #1.

Kamnik
09-09-2008, 03:37 PM
I am surprised more Argies didnt jump at that "Manu European" sentence :toast

FromWayDowntown
09-09-2008, 03:40 PM
Technically there is supposed to be no distinction between NCAA and NBA achievements when it comes to the Basketball HoF. On that basis, Sampson, Laettner, and Hill should all be first-ballot locks to be there. John Wooden is in the HoF . . . as a player! (in addition to as a coach). Personally, I think it's very stupid to not make that distinction. There should be separate NCAA, NBA, and International wings, so that the qualifications and timelines for getting it would be clear.

Obviously, I agree.

It's somewhat frustrating to see the standards informally change and have that change adversely effect two guys who are among the transcendant collegiate players of all-time, but who didn't make huge splashes in the NBA.

There are guys who've made the HOF based on their AAU accomplishments, too.

I Love Me Some Me
09-09-2008, 03:59 PM
Considering Ginobili's international accomplishments, I'd say he's a shoo-in.

I. Hustle
09-09-2008, 04:13 PM
The guy that wrote this is a jerk off.

Obstructed_View
09-09-2008, 04:21 PM
Grant Hill is going into the hall based solely on his college contributions.

ShoogarBear
09-09-2008, 04:31 PM
Grant Hill is going into the hall based solely on his college contributions.

You would think, but the last guy to get in the Hall predominantly because of his NCAA and not his NBA career was Bill Walton in 1993.

Before that, the last guy to get in entirely for his NCAA career was Bob Houbregs in 1987, 34 years after he graduated.

PDXSpursFan
09-09-2008, 04:34 PM
Technically there is supposed to be no distinction between NCAA and NBA achievements when it comes to the Basketball HoF.
So that would means that JJReddick is a lock. LMAO

SenorSpur
09-09-2008, 06:38 PM
Considering Ginobili's international accomplishments, I'd say he's a shoo-in.

Couldn't agree more. Manu is a lock for the HOF. The only drag for him will be enduring the long flight up to the U.S. from Bahia Blanca for the ceremony. :lol

I know this guy didn't mention any younger players, but I'd also say that provided TP has 2-3 more good seasons of similar stats, maybe throw in another Spurs championship, and he'll be a lock also.

rj215
09-09-2008, 09:11 PM
Manu's been a winner everywhere he's been. He's a probable HOFer but Dirk's no lock. He's gotta shed the soft label and win a ring. He can start by pimp slappin David West in the first Mavs/Hornets game next season to set the tone.

timvp
09-09-2008, 09:36 PM
Ginobili is as much of a lock as Duncan to make the HOF.

Oh and Grant Hill wasn't that great of a college player. Laettner was much better than Hill in college. Heck, Bobby Hurley was better than Hill on those teams. In his first three years in college, I'm not sure if Grant Hill was better than Thomas Hill.

Grant Hill was far and away the best NBA player out of that Duke team, obviously. But Hill's rookie season in the NBA, he blew away his best college numbers.

Allanon
09-09-2008, 09:42 PM
Manu's, very likely, but not based on his NBA career but more of what he's done internationally.

Dirk, most likely will get in, as an MVP in the NBA and still probably the best international player to date.

AI, yes because he's the best player of his size

Vince Carter and the rest, I don't think so although Robert Horry might get consideration for his Playoff game-winners.

Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, probably not.

Grant Hill would have been a lock if not for the injuries, one of the most wasted careers ever.

I just remembered, Pau Gasol is also very likely for the Hall of Fame becaue of his international play...but he needs to combine it with some NBA rings to get a lock.

timtonymanu
09-10-2008, 01:18 AM
Duncan and Ginobili should be HOFer's.

i like to see Parker there too. but idk if he'll make it.

Magic_Johnson
09-10-2008, 02:31 AM
Dirk = no doubt
Manu = no doubt
Pierce = no way
Vince = no way

m33p0
09-10-2008, 06:48 AM
6. Kevin Garnett – Coming into the 2007-2008 NBA season, the only knock against KG was that he couldn't be depended upon in crunch time, and thus had never won a championship. Well, if there was any doubt, the ring currently residing on his finger should settle that debate.
uhm... no.

ChuckD
09-10-2008, 07:32 AM
Add to it that he was also Euroleague and NBA champion, I'm pretty sure he's a lock.

+1 Go to their website people, and look up Drazen Petrovic. Manu is a mortal lock at this point. The only thing Drazen had that Manu didn't was third team All-NBA (problem solved) and the WC gold medal, which Manu offset with his Oly gold.

Red Hawk #21
09-10-2008, 09:50 AM
I don't think A.I is a lock but I think he should be, for someone who is only about 5'11 to be able to score 20 + points over defenders that are way bigger than him for so many years he deserves to be rewarded with a hall of fame entry. Manu Ginobili also has to be a lock, he is just such a great player. And maybe in a few years Tony Parker can get in...

Sense
09-10-2008, 10:21 AM
Manu's, very likely, but not based on his NBA career but more of what he's done internationally.

Dirk, most likely will get in, as an MVP in the NBA and still probably the best international player to date.

AI, yes because he's the best player of his size

Vince Carter and the rest, I don't think so although Robert Horry might get consideration for his Playoff game-winners.

Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, probably not.

Grant Hill would have been a lock if not for the injuries, one of the most wasted careers ever.

I just remembered, Pau Gasol is also very likely for the Hall of Fame becaue of his international play...but he needs to combine it with some NBA rings to get a lock.

:lol

mrose31
09-10-2008, 10:30 AM
According to the HOF scoring system those top 7 Dirk and Webber will definately make it. Pierce, Tmac, and even Lebron are almost in . Parker and Manu are pretty far away and Parker is actually ahead of Manu right now I guess because of his finals MVP.

SenorSpur
09-10-2008, 10:46 AM
According to the HOF scoring system those top 7 Dirk and Webber will definately make it. Pierce, Tmac, and even Lebron are almost in . Parker and Manu are pretty far away and Parker is actually ahead of Manu right now I guess because of his finals MVP.

I would strongly disagree that Manu is far away - despite whatever scoring system is in place by the HOF. In truth, Manu would garner strong HOF consideration on either his international or NBA career resume alone. When factoring them together, he's more than a lock to get in as a first ballot.

Mark in Austin
09-10-2008, 12:30 PM
Personally, I think the HOF should be reserved for the players that gave 110% every time they stepped on the floor, as opposed to those who tended to coast and skate by solely on their ability.

Horseshit. If you believed that Shaq wouldn't be #2 on your list.

FromWayDowntown
09-10-2008, 12:40 PM
I can't really quarrel with anyone in that top 7 -- Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Iverson, Garnett, Kidd are all mortal locks and Nash's back-to-back MVPs won't be ignored. I think the first 6 are all sure-fire, first-ballot guys, Nash might need an extra year or so to get over the hump.

But I think fans don't understand the huge resumes that it takes to get into the Hall. The notion that Tony Parker is close, to me, is laughable. He's made a couple of All-Star teams and he's won a Finals MVP, but beyond that, Tony's never been All-NBA, he's never led the league in a major statistical category, and he's never been closer to an MVP than 9th (I'll admit, though, that it's still baffling to me that Parker could be 9th in the MVP voting and not make even Third Team All-NBA!). Until Tony has major accomplishments like that, he's not even going to sniff the Hall.

And I don't think you can just say that Tony and Manu are close to each other and that if one's in, so too must be the other. Manu and Tony are similar NBA players, but Manu's international resume (as noted throughout this thread and many others) is substantially better than that of any non-American I can think of. Manu's got Olympic Gold and Bronze (in the Dream Team era) and World Championships Silver. He's been on the All-Tournament team at each of the last 2 WC's and was the MVP of the 2004 Olympic tournament. In the Dream Team era, there's simply no non-American who has put up that sort of a resume in international play.

mrose31
09-10-2008, 02:14 PM
I would strongly disagree that Manu is far away - despite whatever scoring system is in place by the HOF. In truth, Manu would garner strong HOF consideration on either his international or NBA career resume alone. When factoring them together, he's more than a lock to get in as a first ballot.


The scoring system says you basically need a score above 135 to make HOF. Parker currently has a score of 90 and Manu has a score of 85.


I would think manu would be in for sure with all his accomplishments. Just saying if this scoring system is what they use Parker and Manu have got some work to do.

Rynospursfan
09-10-2008, 02:18 PM
I wouldn't call Horry, Zo or Webber active players.

I would say the following are locks, barring a major scandal:

Duncan
Shaq
AI
Manu
Kobe
KG
Nash

Not real sure about Kidd. If Pierce wins more rings he should be in but still has work to do. When Ray Allen retires, he may be considered the second best 3 point shooter of all time, that could speak volumes. TMac and Vince will not make it. Parker is a long ways away.

FromWayDowntown
09-10-2008, 02:35 PM
The scoring system says you basically need a score above 135 to make HOF. Parker currently has a score of 90 and Manu has a score of 85.


I would think manu would be in for sure with all his accomplishments. Just saying if this scoring system is what they use Parker and Manu have got some work to do.

First of all, the scoring systems that people have devised are all retrofitted to meet the standards of those who have already been enshrined. I'm not sure about the reliability of the model going forward. In any event, though, the model says who is most like other Hall of Famers and not who should be in the Hall.

With that, if you're relying on the HOF monitor metric at databasebasketball.com, then you have to realize that it doesn't account for international accomplishments and that's the thing that makes Manu so very different. As I've said elsewhere, Tony and Manu are relatively similar NBA players; based on just NBA resumes, neither is likely to get into the Hall of Fame. If you add in their international accomplishments, Manu blows Parker away and that's why he's a no-brainer for the Hall while Parker remains unlikely, IMO, to ever be enshrined.

mrose31
09-10-2008, 02:47 PM
First of all, the scoring systems that people have devised are all retrofitted to meet the standards of those who have already been enshrined. I'm not sure about the reliability of the model going forward. In any event, though, the model says who is most like other Hall of Famers and not who should be in the Hall.

With that, if you're relying on the HOF monitor metric at databasebasketball.com, then you have to realize that it doesn't account for international accomplishments and that's the thing that makes Manu so very different. As I've said elsewhere, Tony and Manu are relatively similar NBA players; based on just NBA resumes, neither is likely to get into the Hall of Fame. If you add in their international accomplishments, Manu blows Parker away and that's why he's a no-brainer for the Hall while Parker remains unlikely, IMO, to ever be enshrined.


That makes sense. I hope they both make it.

JamStone
09-10-2008, 02:55 PM
Grant Hill is going into the hall based solely on his college contributions.


As a few have already alluded, that would necessitate Bobby Hurley and Christian Laettner being locks for the Hall as well.

The Franchise
09-10-2008, 04:02 PM
Yao Ming & T-mac.

sook
09-10-2008, 04:44 PM
he led the league in scoring 2 yrs in a row, if he makes it past the first round this year, if the whole team is healthy, he doesn't have excuses anyways, he will make it.


Used to like Pierce but its crazy that he makes the HOF now.


Not to set some spur fans off, but i think Parker will make the HOF before Manu, i think you guys underrate Tony, i've been astonished by his level of play since 05'

FromWayDowntown
09-10-2008, 04:49 PM
Not to set some spur fans off, but i think Parker will make the HOF before Manu, i think you guys underrate Tony, i've been astonished by his level of play since 05'

You know little about the way that voting for the Hall of Fame goes.

carina_gino20
09-11-2008, 12:23 AM
I had to pause for awhile upon reading Duncan's Nikes.:lol

And Pierce over Manu is just laughable. It's the Basketball HoF, not NBA. It's amazing what one ring can do to people's perceptions.

Taco
09-11-2008, 08:04 AM
http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2003/0623_large.jpg

Is David eligible this year?

is it a 5 year wait after retirement?

duncan228
09-11-2008, 10:42 AM
Is David eligible this year?

is it a 5 year wait after retirement?

Yes and yes.

http://hoophall.com/ot/bhof-enshrinement.html

ELIGIBILITY
Candidates must meet the following requirements in order to be eligible for Enshrinement into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame (hereafter BHOF):

Player: A player must be fully retired for five years before being eligible for Enshrinement. He/she may then be considered for Enshrinement in the sixth year of retirement. Should a player come out of retirement for a short period of time, as defined by the BHOF, his/her case and eligibility for Enshrinement shall be reviewed on an individual basis.

rAm
09-11-2008, 10:54 AM
God, Nash being a "lock" for the HOF makes me sick. Who's idea was it to give him back to back MVP's?

FromWayDowntown
09-11-2008, 11:08 AM
http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2003/0623_large.jpg

Is David eligible this year?

is it a 5 year wait after retirement?

DRob, Jordan, and Stockton all should go in this year.

smeagol
09-11-2008, 11:24 AM
I still don't see Kidd as a lock. I see him with high chances, but locks to me are TD, Kobe, LBJ, etc.

JamStone
09-11-2008, 11:25 AM
he led the league in scoring 2 yrs in a row, if he makes it past the first round this year, if the whole team is healthy, he doesn't have excuses anyways, he will make it.


I'm wondering why Bernard King hasn't been inducted yet. Perhaps T-Mac goes the way of Bernard King and doesn't get in... or waits a long time to get in. T-Mac is probably a decent bet to get into the Hall, but it's no slam dunk. Not even close at this point.

JamStone
09-11-2008, 11:26 AM
I still don't see Kidd as a lock. I see him with high chances, but locks to me are TD, Kobe, LBJ, etc.

LBJ is a lock as much as Grant Hill was in the summer of 2000. I think you have to reserve something like that with a young player until they have a good 10 years in the league because you just never know what might happen.

FromWayDowntown
09-11-2008, 11:28 AM
I'm wondering why Bernard King hasn't been inducted yet. Perhaps T-Mac goes the way of Bernard King and doesn't get in... or waits a long time to get in. T-Mac is probably a decent bet to get into the Hall, but it's no slam dunk. Not even close at this point.

Bernard King is a great comparison with McGrady. I don't think McGrady's particularly close right now for a number of reasons and if he stays as fragile as he's been, I'd doubt that he ever reaches that point.

Galileo
09-11-2008, 12:43 PM
Active Leaders and Records for Hall of Fame Probability
Leaders and Records: Career / Active

Click on the Player for career statistics and accomplishments.
Active players are listed in bold.
Members of the Hall of Fame are marked with an asterisk (*).

Explanation of Hall of Fame probability

Rank Player HoF Prob
1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000 [lock]
2. Tim Duncan 1.0000 [lock]
3. Kobe Bryant 1.0000 [lock]
4. Allen Iverson 1.0000 [lock]
5. Kevin Garnett 1.0000 [lock]
6. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9993 [very probable]
7. Steve Nash 0.9991 [lock]
8. Vince Carter 0.9528 [borderline]
9. Paul Pierce 0.9512 [very probable]
10. Ray Allen 0.9316 [borderline]
11. Tracy McGrady 0.8780 [borderline]
12. Jason Kidd 0.8702 [lock]
13. Chris Webber 0.6972 [borderline/less likely]
14. Grant Hill 0.6831 [unlikely]
15. Gilbert Arenas 0.6078 >>> worried aboput his injuries
16. Tony Parker 0.3858 >>> will get in
17. Alonzo Mourning 0.3362 [unlikely]
18. Stephon Marbury 0.2819 >>> horrible
19. Sam Cassell 0.2547 >>> cool player, might get in someday
20. Steve Francis 0.2308 >>> bad
21. Elton Brand 0.1890 >>> worried about injuries
22. Shawn Marion 0.1878 >>> underrated
23. Antoine Walker 0.1640 >>> sucks
24. Baron Davis 0.0920 >>> cool player, still has stuff left
25. Yao Ming 0.0872 >>> will get in
26. Richard Hamilton 0.0632 >>> will get in on future achievements & college
27. Chauncey Billups 0.0514 [borderline/less likely] >>> will get in eventually
28. Manu Ginobili 0.0510 [borderline] >>> will get in on international reasons
29. Antawn Jamison 0.0493 >>> not impressive to me
30. Rasheed Wallace 0.0283 [unlikely]
31. Anfernee Hardaway 0.0260 >>> underrrated
32. Michael Finley 0.0249 >>> solid player
33. Michael Redd 0.0218 >>> solid player
34. Pau Gasol 0.0218 >>> might get in on future achievements
35. Jerry Stackhouse 0.0216 >>> overrated
36. Robert Horry 0.0207 [unlikely] >>> I think he'll get in someday
37. Jermaine O'Neal 0.0178 >>> underrated
38. Mike Bibby 0.0169 >>> underrated
39. Peja Stojakovic 0.0142 >>> no D
40. Shareef Abdur-Rahim 0.0139 >>> overrated
41. Jason Richardson 0.0122 >>> still going strong
42. Andre Miller 0.0114 >>> good player, but eay to forget
43. Joe Johnson 0.0091 >>> still up & coming
44. Caron Butler 0.0083 >>> rookie of year is only major accomplishment
45. Dikembe Mutombo 0.0073 [borderline/less likely]
46. Lamar Odom 0.0070 >>> bad
47. Damon Stoudamire 0.0059 >>> dud
48. Eddie Jones 0.0053 >>> underrated
49. Jason Terry 0.0053 >>> over achiever
50. Richard Jefferson 0.0047 >>> cool player

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

not listed in top 50"

Ben Wallace [unlikely]

smeagol
09-11-2008, 02:18 PM
LBJ is a lock as much as Grant Hill was in the summer of 2000. I think you have to reserve something like that with a young player until they have a good 10 years in the league because you just never know what might happen.

Of course I meant barring any injuries.

sook
09-11-2008, 05:08 PM
everyone talks about Tmacs 1st round failures, but always overlook something even bigger.


Grant Hill has never made it passed the 1st round in 15 NBA seasons (around)

Allanon
09-11-2008, 05:21 PM
everyone talks about Tmacs 1st round failures, but always overlook something even bigger.


Grant Hill has never made it passed the 1st round in 15 NBA seasons (around)

It's because TMAC has more first round losses than anybody. TMAC has 7 first round losses in 11 years. That's really gotta suck.

If the Rockets don't make it out of the first round this year......

Galileo
09-11-2008, 05:24 PM
everyone talks about Tmacs 1st round failures, but always overlook something even bigger.


Grant Hill has never made it passed the 1st round in 15 NBA seasons (around)

That illustrates the great gulf between the truly great and the flashy & overhyped.

Duncan has won 24 playoff series, TMac & Hill none.

Garnett only 6.

Winning a playoff series isn't that big a deal, that means you're a top 8 team.

sook
09-11-2008, 05:27 PM
It's because TMAC has more first round losses than anybody. TMAC has 7 first round losses in 11 years. That's really gotta suck.

If the Rockets don't make it out of the first round this year......

i will shoot myself, to finish off your sentence.

But i would rather play in the playoffs than not at all.

Galileo
09-11-2008, 05:49 PM
Robert Horry has never lost a 1st round series in 16 years.

ShoogarBear
09-11-2008, 08:29 PM
I still don't see Kidd as a lock. I see him with high chances, but locks to me are TD, Kobe, LBJ, etc.

8-time All-Star
5-time All-NBA 1st team, 1-time second team
4-time All-Defense 1st team, 5-time second team
5-time assist leader
3rd all-time in triple doubles
Never lost an international game (I know that's important to you)

That's a lock.

And LBJ isn't a lock. If he never played another game, there would be controversy about him getting in just due to longevity.