duncan228
09-22-2008, 10:00 PM
Many teams still relying on old-timers to contribute (http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8591444/Many-teams-still-relying-on-old-timers-to-contribute)
by Charley Rosen
The accepted wisdom is that in the absence of any debilitating injuries, the peak of an NBA player's career usually lasts only four years, between his 28th and his 32nd birthdays. That's when his body is still sprightly and he's presumably learned what the game is all about.
Of course, several players have stretched their peak seasons far beyond these boundaries — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Robert Parish, Kevin Willis, Karl Malone, Reggie Miller and John Stockton — just to name a few.
Moreover, there are a number of geriatric survivors who are still getting paid to play: Dikembe Mutombo (42), Sam Cassell (soon to be 39), Bo Outlaw (37) and Darrell Armstrong (40). But at this stage in their respective careers, all of these guys are of marginal importance to their teams' fortunes.
However, there remains a large group of aging players whose production (or lack thereof) during the upcoming season will be key factors in the overall success or failure of their ball clubs.
Let's take a look at some of these players — who currently perform for contending teams and who are on the downhill side of their careers — and estimate what might be expected of them as they gear up for another long, grinding campaign.
Phoenix
The Suns are loaded with old-timers, the most noticeable being Shaquille O'Neal (age 36). While the word is that Shaq has been diligently working out during the offseason, his lack of explosiveness, diminished defense and fading board work are already past the point of resurrection. Also, given all the years he's hauled his overweight body up and down the court, injuries (both nagging and devastating) are likely to plague the rest of his career.
Look for Shaq to start the season in fine fashion, but then to fade as the games pile up. By the turn of the year, he'll probably be limited to one top-notch outing per week. Grant Hill (35) is another Sun whose game is setting. Always susceptible to injuries, Hill is playing on borrowed time. His impact has certainly lessened over the years, but Hill remains a solid performer — dependable, savvy and even inspirational. Last season was the first time he's appeared in 70 or more games since 1999-2000, but his unavailability for much of the playoffs was costly for Phoenix.
Even with his playing time carefully monitored, it's hard to imagine Hill's being at full strength when the money season rolls around.
Steve Nash (34) is much stronger than his comparatively frail physique might indicate. Even so, with Mike D'Antonio taking his running and gunning to New York, the Suns will certainly play a much more deliberate style. Because there's much more physical contact in a half-court game plan than in an uptempo one, Nash is certain to be banged and bounced more than he has been in the past. And with two rookies — Sean Singletary and Goran Dagic — now in supporting roles behind Nash, Leandro Barbosa (a natural two-guard) remains as the Suns' primary backup at the point.
The probable outcome is that if Nash isn't limping by next Easter, he'll certainly be more sore, tired and worn out than he ever has been.
In addition to their opponents-of-the-moment, the Suns' most significant battles will be with Father Time.
Dallas
The Mavericks have a quartet of players on the cusp of their dotage, with Jason Kidd (35) being the oldest and the most significant. Since his micro-fracture surgery, J-Kidd has lost about a half-step each succeeding season. Whereas he used to be a defensive ace, he can no longer keep up with quick-stepping point guards. As a corollary to Kidd's diminished speed and quickness, the Mavs will not be able to run themselves into as many open-court shots as before.
Still, Kidd is durable, unselfish and a leader. With a full training camp to get in synch with his teammates, look for Kidd — and the Mavs — to make whatever adjustments are necessary to maintain his standing as one of the NBA's premier playmakers.
Erick Dampier (33) was born with foul trouble, but if his minutes are therefore abbreviated, they are also meaningful. There should be no drop-off in his game.
On the other hand, Jerry Stackhouse (33) is close to the end of his usefulness, as is Eddie Jones (37). New coach Rick Carlisle will be more than satisfied if he can get a combined 10-15 minutes of plus-play per week from both of these guys.
Detroit
The Pistons are in the predicament of having two veteran front-court players approaching the clubhouse turn of their careers. As Rasheed Wallace (34) approaches senior citizenship, he's become ever more reluctant to get involved in the physical exertions inherent in playing the low post. For sure, the constant pounding in the paint is more draining than it was when Rasheed was younger and less wise — but for the Pistons to battle their way back to elite status, he must be ready, willing and able to play elbow-to-chest with the league's other bigs.
Not even the Shadow knows how Rasheed will react to a necessary return to the pivot.
The decline of Antonio McDyess (34) was hastened by major knee surgery a few years back. Look for his daylight to be gradually eclipsed by Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown.
San Antonio
The Spurs are faced with the prospect of a matching pair of wingmen losing their chops in tandem. The continued defensive excellence of Bruce Bowen (37) is a must for the Spurs to seriously challenge for control of the Western Conference. Bowen will undoubtedly be as tough and as on-the-edge of foul play as ever, but his speed and quickness are in question. Last year he showed signs that he can no longer stay in touch with fleet-footed opponents, a failing that should be exacerbated this season. From now on, Bowen's main function will be to hold the fort until Ime Udoka is ready to step up and replace him. It says here that Udoka is still a year away.
Meanwhile, Michael Finley (35) hasn't played adequate defense in many moons. But as long as he can pull-up going left, then fade and shoot with a high degree of success (especially in clutch situations), he can be a valuable part-time performer. However, as his ability to play defense continues to decrease, his shooting percentage must increase in order to justify more than occasional playing time. With only DerMarr Johnson and Roger Mason behind him and with Manu Ginobili recovering from foot surgery, Finley will get more time than he deserves early on.
Finley's relative decrepitude bodes ill for the Spurs.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers' starting bigs are both teetering on the edge of oblivion. Zydrunas Ilguaskas might be the oldest 33-year-old in the history of the NBA. His body is fragile, his feet are post-surgical and it seems as though his career might come to a sudden end by the possibility of his tripping over the time-line as he gallops up and down the court. As it is, Ziggy will get fewer touches now that Mo Williams is on board, which means the Cavs will have no real inside threat.
In any case, look for Ilgauskas to become more of a mid-range jump shooter.
Ben Wallace (34) has been ready for the glue factory for two seasons. His last gasp translates into one excellent game every two weeks, one good game every week and a host of near-invisible non-appearances.
Boston
The Celtics' lone candidate for impending social insecurity is Ray Allen (33). With a history of strained, pulled, torn and dislocated body parts, Allen is always at risk to get much older in a hurry. But without Allen's outside threat, Kevin Garnett will always be surrounded by defenders whenever he posts up. In other words, sans a healthy Allen, the Celtics are also-rans. That's why Allen's playing time must be greatly curtailed during the regular season.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are hoping that Jordan Farmar will be able to assume most of Derek Fisher's playing time as the season progresses. For sure, Fish (34) is still clutch, and no other point guard in the league plays better position defense than he does. But as his sneakers get heavier with each passing season, he's become more of a mark on defense — particularly in non-defense of high screen/rolls, which also happens to match Farmar's primary defensive weakness. Fortunately for the Lakers, the triangle offense reduces the traditional duties of point guards. So if Sasha Vujacic can calm down and learn to see the whole court, he's another candidate to stand in for Fisher.
Even so, it's a good bet that Fisher will continue to take any clutch shots that might be denied to Kobe Bryant.
With the commencement of the NBA's 62nd season, the play of the above-mentioned old-timers will go a long way to settle an even older question: Are wise heads more valuable than young legs?
by Charley Rosen
The accepted wisdom is that in the absence of any debilitating injuries, the peak of an NBA player's career usually lasts only four years, between his 28th and his 32nd birthdays. That's when his body is still sprightly and he's presumably learned what the game is all about.
Of course, several players have stretched their peak seasons far beyond these boundaries — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Robert Parish, Kevin Willis, Karl Malone, Reggie Miller and John Stockton — just to name a few.
Moreover, there are a number of geriatric survivors who are still getting paid to play: Dikembe Mutombo (42), Sam Cassell (soon to be 39), Bo Outlaw (37) and Darrell Armstrong (40). But at this stage in their respective careers, all of these guys are of marginal importance to their teams' fortunes.
However, there remains a large group of aging players whose production (or lack thereof) during the upcoming season will be key factors in the overall success or failure of their ball clubs.
Let's take a look at some of these players — who currently perform for contending teams and who are on the downhill side of their careers — and estimate what might be expected of them as they gear up for another long, grinding campaign.
Phoenix
The Suns are loaded with old-timers, the most noticeable being Shaquille O'Neal (age 36). While the word is that Shaq has been diligently working out during the offseason, his lack of explosiveness, diminished defense and fading board work are already past the point of resurrection. Also, given all the years he's hauled his overweight body up and down the court, injuries (both nagging and devastating) are likely to plague the rest of his career.
Look for Shaq to start the season in fine fashion, but then to fade as the games pile up. By the turn of the year, he'll probably be limited to one top-notch outing per week. Grant Hill (35) is another Sun whose game is setting. Always susceptible to injuries, Hill is playing on borrowed time. His impact has certainly lessened over the years, but Hill remains a solid performer — dependable, savvy and even inspirational. Last season was the first time he's appeared in 70 or more games since 1999-2000, but his unavailability for much of the playoffs was costly for Phoenix.
Even with his playing time carefully monitored, it's hard to imagine Hill's being at full strength when the money season rolls around.
Steve Nash (34) is much stronger than his comparatively frail physique might indicate. Even so, with Mike D'Antonio taking his running and gunning to New York, the Suns will certainly play a much more deliberate style. Because there's much more physical contact in a half-court game plan than in an uptempo one, Nash is certain to be banged and bounced more than he has been in the past. And with two rookies — Sean Singletary and Goran Dagic — now in supporting roles behind Nash, Leandro Barbosa (a natural two-guard) remains as the Suns' primary backup at the point.
The probable outcome is that if Nash isn't limping by next Easter, he'll certainly be more sore, tired and worn out than he ever has been.
In addition to their opponents-of-the-moment, the Suns' most significant battles will be with Father Time.
Dallas
The Mavericks have a quartet of players on the cusp of their dotage, with Jason Kidd (35) being the oldest and the most significant. Since his micro-fracture surgery, J-Kidd has lost about a half-step each succeeding season. Whereas he used to be a defensive ace, he can no longer keep up with quick-stepping point guards. As a corollary to Kidd's diminished speed and quickness, the Mavs will not be able to run themselves into as many open-court shots as before.
Still, Kidd is durable, unselfish and a leader. With a full training camp to get in synch with his teammates, look for Kidd — and the Mavs — to make whatever adjustments are necessary to maintain his standing as one of the NBA's premier playmakers.
Erick Dampier (33) was born with foul trouble, but if his minutes are therefore abbreviated, they are also meaningful. There should be no drop-off in his game.
On the other hand, Jerry Stackhouse (33) is close to the end of his usefulness, as is Eddie Jones (37). New coach Rick Carlisle will be more than satisfied if he can get a combined 10-15 minutes of plus-play per week from both of these guys.
Detroit
The Pistons are in the predicament of having two veteran front-court players approaching the clubhouse turn of their careers. As Rasheed Wallace (34) approaches senior citizenship, he's become ever more reluctant to get involved in the physical exertions inherent in playing the low post. For sure, the constant pounding in the paint is more draining than it was when Rasheed was younger and less wise — but for the Pistons to battle their way back to elite status, he must be ready, willing and able to play elbow-to-chest with the league's other bigs.
Not even the Shadow knows how Rasheed will react to a necessary return to the pivot.
The decline of Antonio McDyess (34) was hastened by major knee surgery a few years back. Look for his daylight to be gradually eclipsed by Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown.
San Antonio
The Spurs are faced with the prospect of a matching pair of wingmen losing their chops in tandem. The continued defensive excellence of Bruce Bowen (37) is a must for the Spurs to seriously challenge for control of the Western Conference. Bowen will undoubtedly be as tough and as on-the-edge of foul play as ever, but his speed and quickness are in question. Last year he showed signs that he can no longer stay in touch with fleet-footed opponents, a failing that should be exacerbated this season. From now on, Bowen's main function will be to hold the fort until Ime Udoka is ready to step up and replace him. It says here that Udoka is still a year away.
Meanwhile, Michael Finley (35) hasn't played adequate defense in many moons. But as long as he can pull-up going left, then fade and shoot with a high degree of success (especially in clutch situations), he can be a valuable part-time performer. However, as his ability to play defense continues to decrease, his shooting percentage must increase in order to justify more than occasional playing time. With only DerMarr Johnson and Roger Mason behind him and with Manu Ginobili recovering from foot surgery, Finley will get more time than he deserves early on.
Finley's relative decrepitude bodes ill for the Spurs.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers' starting bigs are both teetering on the edge of oblivion. Zydrunas Ilguaskas might be the oldest 33-year-old in the history of the NBA. His body is fragile, his feet are post-surgical and it seems as though his career might come to a sudden end by the possibility of his tripping over the time-line as he gallops up and down the court. As it is, Ziggy will get fewer touches now that Mo Williams is on board, which means the Cavs will have no real inside threat.
In any case, look for Ilgauskas to become more of a mid-range jump shooter.
Ben Wallace (34) has been ready for the glue factory for two seasons. His last gasp translates into one excellent game every two weeks, one good game every week and a host of near-invisible non-appearances.
Boston
The Celtics' lone candidate for impending social insecurity is Ray Allen (33). With a history of strained, pulled, torn and dislocated body parts, Allen is always at risk to get much older in a hurry. But without Allen's outside threat, Kevin Garnett will always be surrounded by defenders whenever he posts up. In other words, sans a healthy Allen, the Celtics are also-rans. That's why Allen's playing time must be greatly curtailed during the regular season.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are hoping that Jordan Farmar will be able to assume most of Derek Fisher's playing time as the season progresses. For sure, Fish (34) is still clutch, and no other point guard in the league plays better position defense than he does. But as his sneakers get heavier with each passing season, he's become more of a mark on defense — particularly in non-defense of high screen/rolls, which also happens to match Farmar's primary defensive weakness. Fortunately for the Lakers, the triangle offense reduces the traditional duties of point guards. So if Sasha Vujacic can calm down and learn to see the whole court, he's another candidate to stand in for Fisher.
Even so, it's a good bet that Fisher will continue to take any clutch shots that might be denied to Kobe Bryant.
With the commencement of the NBA's 62nd season, the play of the above-mentioned old-timers will go a long way to settle an even older question: Are wise heads more valuable than young legs?