Predict the results of the Presidential election.

[Cry Havoc]

Who wins and by how much? Let's drop the partisanship (yeah, right). Who do you really think wins this, and by how much?

[Shastafarian]

Palin/McCain by 4%

After reading whottt's posts for the past few days I have lost faith in mankind

[Findog]

I don't feel like answering this poll until November 3rd. Obama would win today. McCain would've won 3 weeks ago. Obama structurally should have this.

Football analogy: 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, Obama is up 23-17.

[AFBlue]

The environmental conditions scream Democrat in a landslide, but a major percentage of "energized" Obama voters historically don't have solid turnout.

I'll say that just enough come out in the right places to get him the victory and he wins in a virtual dead heat.

[Findog]

The environmental conditions scream Democrat in a landslide, but a major percentage of "energized" Obama voters historically don't have solid turnout.

I'll say that just enough come out in the right places to get him the victory and he wins in a virtual dead heat.

It's a center-right electorate and Obama is considered by conventional wisdom to be decidedly left of center. Still lots of polarization, so a landslide is unlikely. What is a landslide anyway? Obama's popular vote ceiling is probably 52%, but he could easily get a EC landslide with that.

[ElNono]

Whatever it is, just get dubya and cheney out of the White House ASAP.

[AFBlue]

It's a center-right electorate and Obama is considered by conventional wisdom to be decidedly left of center. Still lots of polarization, so a landslide is unlikely. What is a landslide anyway? Obama's popular vote ceiling is probably 52%, but he could easily get a EC landslide with that.

Good point and better question. Even if Obama wins the popular vote by a landslide, it doesn't necessarily translate into a "landslide" EC victory...though I doubt he could win the popular vote by more than 7% and lose the election.

That's why I said he'll get just enough turnout in the right places to get him a victory.

[AFBlue]

Whatever it is, just get dubya and cheney out of the White House ASAP.

:lol

President Bush walks into the Oval Office on Nov 5th and McCain/Obama (pick one) is sitting in his chair!

"Hey, you weren't using this desk were you?"

[Findog]

Good point and better question. Even if Obama wins the popular vote by a landslide, it doesn't necessarily translate into a "landslide" EC victory...though I doubt he could win the popular vote by more than 7% and lose the election.

That's why I said he'll get just enough turnout in the right places to get him a victory.

At the moment, I don't think any Kerry states are looking particularly vulnerable. NH, MICH and PENN are McCain's best targets. Obama's path to the Presidency is Kerry states/Iowa and then he can do the Western pickup (Colorado and New Mexico), flip either Ohio or Florida, or pick up Virginia. He's got more than 1 path to 270. McCain has already lost Iowa and can't afford to give up more than 16 of Bush's 2004 EVs.

[GuerillaBlack]

At the moment, I don't think any Kerry states are looking particularly vulnerable. NH, MICH and PENN are McCain's best targets. Obama's path to the Presidency is Kerry states/Iowa and then he can do the Western pickup (Colorado and New Mexico), flip either Ohio or Florida, or pick up Virginia. He's got more than 1 path to 270. McCain has already lost Iowa and can't afford to give up more than 16 of Bush's 2004 EVs.

Don't forget North Carolina, which is slipping away from McCain.

[jochhejaam]

Obama in a tight race (3-6 points)
Obama in a "landslide" (7+ points)

6 is tight, 7 is a landslide...(mulling that over before voting)

[AFBlue]

6 is tight, 7 is a landslide...(mulling that over before voting)

Seriously...if it's going to be a landslide anyways you might as well not vote....j/k :lol

[Cry Havoc]

6 is tight, 7 is a landslide...(mulling that over before voting)

Well I thought it would be a little more entertaining to label each category.

7 points isn't even really a landslide historically, but in this case it would feel like one.

[baseline bum]

Are we going by difference in percentage on the popular vote? Difference by percentage in the electoral vote?

2centsworth is right if we're talking popular vote: Clinton-Bush was a landslide even though Clinton only won a little more than 5% more of the popular vote than Daddy Bush.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/6/6a/ElectoralCollege1992.svg/380px-ElectoralCollege1992.svg.png

'68 was borderline landslide with less than a 1% difference in popular vote.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/ElectoralCollege1968.svg/400px-ElectoralCollege1968.svg.png

[Thunder Dan]

I think if you work the numbers it's almost impossible for McCain to win in a landslide even if he wins every swing state