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View Full Version : The REAL Reason Why Wild Card Teams Do Well in the MLB



Reggie Miller
10-01-2008, 10:59 AM
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/09/why_the_angels.php


Wild Card teams have been wildly successful since 1995.

"A wildcard team has made it to the World Series 9 times in the last 13 years, claiming 4 world championships including 3 of the last 6."

In the past, I had attributed this to the WC team being forced to play meaningful games well into September, while the team with the best record may not have played a meaningful game in almost a month (see 2008 Angels).

The truth is the WC teams are often just plain better.

As Vin noted in the comments to this article,

"Tie for best record: 1
2nd best: 9
3rd best: 10
4th best: 7

Though the difference is small, it's worth noting that more wild card teams have been the second-best team in the league than the fourth-best. At any rate, it's abundantly clear that the wild card is not necessarily the true "fourth seed" of the postseason - more often than not, it isn't. Of course, the better team has still lost a disproportionate number of postseason series, but the difference between the best team and the wild is typically quite small."

This explanation works for me.

Extra Stout
10-01-2008, 01:15 PM
I've often wondered if the makeup of the team has something to do with it. In the regular season, a team built for offense can rack up a bunch of runs against mediocre pitching on bad teams. In the postseason, teams are facing more elite pitching and some of these big-slugging teams suddenly struggle to score. A team with a middling offense but three elite starting pitchers, or maybe two great starters and a lockdown bullpen, may only win 85 to 90 games in the regular season, but in a playoff series might be perfectly built to win 4 out of 7.

Jimcs50
10-01-2008, 01:21 PM
I've often wondered if the makeup of the team has something to do with it. In the regular season, a team built for offense can rack up a bunch of runs against mediocre pitching on bad teams. In the postseason, teams are facing more elite pitching and some of these big-slugging teams suddenly struggle to score. A team with a middling offense but three elite starting pitchers, or maybe two great starters and a lockdown bullpen, may only win 85 to 90 games in the regular season, but in a playoff series might be perfectly built to win 4 out of 7.

Sounds like my Redsox.

:toast

Reggie Miller
10-01-2008, 01:32 PM
I've often wondered if the makeup of the team has something to do with it. In the regular season, a team built for offense can rack up a bunch of runs against mediocre pitching on bad teams. In the postseason, teams are facing more elite pitching and some of these big-slugging teams suddenly struggle to score. A team with a middling offense but three elite starting pitchers, or maybe two great starters and a lockdown bullpen, may only win 85 to 90 games in the regular season, but in a playoff series might be perfectly built to win 4 out of 7.

I read that and my first thought was: 2005 Astros.

The problem with that example is that the Astros' pitching then had their brains beat out by a true AL offense.

Sometimes, the 2004-2006 Postseasons make me think the whole thing is purely random. The 2007 Postseason was the first to go "according to the script" for some time now.

FromWayDowntown
10-01-2008, 01:41 PM
The 2007 Postseason was the first to go "according to the script" for some time now.

The Rockies were following the script last year?

Reggie Miller
10-01-2008, 01:48 PM
The Rockies were following the script last year?

Not so much, but the Red Sox demolished them, which was according to script, as it were. The Rockies got red-hot just in time to make it interesting. (I was working from the standpoint that either the Indians or Red Sox would have crushed any of the NL teams.)

bostonguy
10-01-2008, 05:42 PM
Sounds like my Redsox.

:toast

As long as we arent trailing big in a 7 game series (0-3 or 1-3). It worked the previous 2 title runs but they cant afford to get in that kind of hole again. Playing with fire like that this postseason will burn Boston badly.

Purple & Gold
10-01-2008, 10:38 PM
I thought it was because of run differential.