stock market in free fall...

[timvp]

Manny, Retirement/investment accounts have lost 50% of their value since the start of the year. These are not electronic numbers, these are real dollars. After today about FOUR TRILLION dollars. gone. *poof*Unless someone is retiring soon, I don't see much reason to go into a panic mode. Then again, if someone is retiring soon, they probably should have been in less risky investments.

A lot of what we are seeing is cyclical.

[mouse]

Of course, you probably smoked that gold as soon as you got it.

Actually I was still working at FT.Sam at the time I did not smoke.


















BTW you have any now? :smokin



http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/RTM-3/00-BigSnack.jpg

[Bigzax]

mouse...bitch...you betta have my money!

we in a recession foo!!!

and we gotta take your sprayer back before the pawnshop gets hit and can't afford it!!!

[CosmicCowboy]

Unless someone is retiring soon, I don't see much reason to go into a panic mode. Then again, if someone is retiring soon, they probably should have been in less risky investments.

A lot of what we are seeing is cyclical.

I agree totally. I've just been saying for the last few weeks that THIS one is gonna be one nasty fucking cycle. Fortunately I'm 100% in paid off commercial real estate right now (which will obviously go down in value short term in a recession/depression but IMHO opinion won't take the hit stocks did) and if I see a solid bottom and really strong upside in the market I can ALWAYS borrow a few hundred thousand on the real estate and play with the high rollers in the market on the recovery. This is just NOT the time to be drinking the "dollar cost averaging" kool-aid and riding this stock market to the bottom.

[CosmicCowboy]

This fucked up economy is one big shit sandwich that we are all gonna have to take a bite of eventually, but the more bread you have when you have to take that bite the less it's gonna taste like shit.

[2centsworth]

Unless someone is retiring soon, I don't see much reason to go into a panic mode. Then again, if someone is retiring soon, they probably should have been in less risky investments.

A lot of what we are seeing is cyclical.

I agree with about 90% of that except that this is cyclical. Down markets are cyclical, but the meltdown of the financial system last happened in 1929.

[Bigzax]

yeah...my millions are safe too...no worries...

if times got tight, i could dabble...a few hundred K here...a few there...make up the difference...

[2centsworth]

http://www.hulu.com/watch/36665/saturday-night-live-reliable-investments

what the average broker is doing right now (for those who haven't seen it)

[2centsworth]

for you young schmos, scrap together a couple of hundred dollars a month and invest in the market. you won't be sorry.

[CosmicCowboy]

yeah...my millions are safe too...no worries...

if times got tight, i could dabble...a few hundred K here...a few there...make up the difference...

Don't be a hater Zak. Your business of breaking up ozs and selling joints will be booming in the coming recession. You could reinvest and ride that wave all the way into the big time multi-key market.

Jump out before LE kicks your door down, sell your stash and buy GM at $2, and ride that baby right to the top. You could be the next Warren Fucking Buffet.

[MannyIsGod]

for you young schmos, scrap together a couple of hundred dollars a month and invest in the market. you won't be sorry.

QFMFT

[timvp]

I agree with about 90% of that except that this is cyclical. Down markets are cyclical, but the meltdown of the financial system last happened in 1929.We aren't going to see a meltdown comparable to '29. Perhaps a few sectors but not a total meltdown.

But even if we did, it could still be cyclical ... just a longer cycle.

:hat

[CosmicCowboy]

You might want to wait until next month to start, though. We haven't gotten close to the bottom of this mother yet. Remember, as the market gets lower every point down represents a larger percentage drop than it did a month ago.

[Clandestino]

But you know the best part? I know I work less than you and I'm pretty damn sure I make more than you. Chew on that, bitch. :)

Typical, I don't make shit, but you can't prove it response. :lol

Manny, a person who talks as much as you is broke 99% of the time.

[CosmicCowboy]

We aren't going to see a meltdown comparable to '29. Perhaps a few sectors but not a total meltdown.

But even if we did, it could still be cyclical ... just a longer cycle.

:hat

Agreed. I thought bank stocks got hammered unmercifully today to a point of being irrational. The Fed is gonna do back flips to stop any more bank failures in this climate. Once the public starts realizing this ain't just a normal correction they won't scream so much when the Fed goes back to congress for more money...at this point they are throwing numbers like "trillion" around like they are pocket change.

[James Earl Ray]

fuck!

[timvp]

What's funny is that the panic would be much worse if gas prices also weren't falling. To the average American, they can relate more to gas prices than stocks -- as lame as that sounds. If gas prices were rising drastically and the stock market was spiraling downward, I'd be at Academy with CC buying shells :lol

[T Park]

I still find it funny how people get pissed that the economy goes into recession.

Did those people miss the invisible hand part of Economics class?

[Das Texan]

i'm gonna make some serious money off this market.


thats all i know.

[MannyIsGod]

Typical, I don't make shit, but you can't prove it response. :lol

Manny, a person who talks as much as you is broke 99% of the time.

Well one thing is for sure Clan, I'll be 50 bucks richer on Nov 5.

[ChumpDumper]

I also don't make shit, but you can't prove it.

[Anti.Hero]

So today was the day they let short sellers come back out to play?


The short sellers that will not be made public by Mr Cox/Bush/etc.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm tempted to buy GM stock out of sheer incredulity.

[TDMVPDPOY]

i just cant wait any longer till my govt actually passes the legislation protecting depositors 20k maximum :D if a bank goes bankrupt....

i shouldve bought american dollars when they were shit against the aussie dollar, be pretty good selling it out now....

[TDMVPDPOY]

lmao at England with $50b in icelands financial institutions are in default hahahaha, they also locked up icelands $10b deposited in englands financial institutions until rest is paid back.

The only way i can see this being solved and americas NFD? communism :D:D a change of currency notes and doesnt matter how much you have, you get the same amount as the next family....everyone back to zero. And your country cant get sued, cause it was previous govt...

[Clandestino]

Well one thing is for sure Clan, I'll be 50 bucks richer on Nov 5.

you just may you son of a bitch! :lol this economy may have hung mccain. i'm hoping the talkers just talk and don't actually go out and vote.

[CosmicCowboy]

Shit

Just checked

Australia's tanking.

Japan/Hong Kong is next.

This is going to be a wild fucking ride tomorrow.

[TDMVPDPOY]

australias tankn 5-7% already....

not really concern at all, had the fed didnt pass that $700b market was going to tank anway, now all of that gain after the announcement is loss.

[hater]

maybe we can all chip in a few dollars and buy a GM factory. Have a monster party and then burn the place down after

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Go back and read my initial post. Check the line I bolded in the quote.

Now, there was once a point when humans couldn't fly either. There was once a point when all the land they had accessible to them was where they could walk. There was once a point where we didn't have electricity in our cities. There was once a point where you weren't a bleeding vagina who cried over every fucking thing they could. Oh wait, cross off that last one because that time has never existed.

God damn, you can't even keep track of what you say so how am I supposed to expect you think outside the box?

I know what I said, and I didn't conflate the two ideas. You can't fucking read. And this is a waste of my time.

Adios.

[CosmicCowboy]

We are officially in the shit.

Hong Kong and Japan just opened down 10%

This is gonna get ugly tomorrow.

[TDMVPDPOY]

We are officially in the shit.

Hong Kong and Japan just opened down 10%

This is gonna get ugly tomorrow.

didnt japan had 0% interest a few years ago, still its consumers didnt spend either...

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

i just cant wait any longer till my govt actually passes the legislation protecting depositors 20k maximum :D if a bank goes bankrupt....

i shouldve bought american dollars when they were shit against the aussie dollar, be pretty good selling it out now....

Why exactly do you think the big 4 Australian banks are threatened here? They are some of the largest banks in the world, have at least AA credit ratings, and have already written off large chunks of their exposure to the US/Euro crisis. Interest rates have just fallen 1% which has taken a lot of pressure off their mortgage holders.

Added to that, the Australian economy is still moving along fine which the IMF (always a bit sceptical about the Aus economy) just confirmed this week.

Or were you talking about smaller banks?

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Yeah, right. A large chunk of the western world has been living far beyond its means for a decade, what with a large proportion of the population buying shitloads of crap they can't afford ON CREDIT, and it had to come home to roost some time. What exactly is "fucking stupid" about pointing that out? This credit crunch isn't just about the sub-prime mortgage lending, which was basically a big scam on the poor and stupid, it's about entire economies living beyond their ability to pay for what is consumed. Please enlighten my stupidity, oh wise one.

Any fool could see that the US, and the West in general, was in for a gut-check, it was simply a matter of when it was going to happen. I've had money in the bank for the last 3 years because I could see this coming, I just didn't know when it was going to happen. Now that stock markets are flushing out all the bad debt, the system should return to some kind of sanity - how long that will take is the question. Sure, the crunch is hurting people, but you can't live on credit for ever, and a lot of people have put themselves in credit holes so they can live lifestyles they could never really afford. It's harsh, but I have no sympathy for those people because they did it to themselves.


Which totally ignores the fact that a lot of what was "lost" NEVER EXISTED IN THE FIRST PLACE - it was a bunch of figures founded on nothing but market optimism and fancy smokescreens.

As you well know, the real value of the market is based on the productive capacity behind it, and much of the bull market wasn't founded on increased capacity to produce.

The market correction is a good thing - it is going to force our societies to start living in reality, within our means, again. Painful, but necessary.

And as for retirement funds, those who are set to retire in the next 3-5 years are going to do it tough, but everyone else will be okay. The market will eventually recover and go bullish again, hopefully based on real economic expansion this time... massive investment in sustainable infrastructure, anyone? After this deep recession/depression bottoms, and with better and cheaper technology coming online all the time, investment in renewable energy and water technology will be the big leap that will fuel the next bull cycle. Mark my words. The world can't grow without sustainable energy and water.


What have we really lost? A bunch of electronic numbers. The markets will settle at some point. I'm not sure where that is, but when they settle and find a bottom - and they will - we only have up to go from there.

Yeah, companies are going to go under and thats going to raise unemployment, but we'll rebound. And we'll learn some lessons that need to be learned. The fact is that as a society we've lived beyond our means for a long time and the market is going to correct for that but once it does we'll start growing once again. And maybe this time we'll grow in a smarter manner.

So let's see, the I'm a fucking idiot but you say the exact same thing 3 pages later. :rolleyes

The only difference is that I'm predicting that the next up cycle will be on the back of growth in sustainable energy and water infrastructure, and
you're just saying "smarter".

Maybe you read my posts after all... you sure like to pass them off as your own.

[Das Texan]

good.


i hope tomorrow is the day the market really tanks and hits bottom so we can start building back up.


its way overdue after all this stupid posturing.

[MannyIsGod]

So let's see, the I'm a fucking idiot but you say the exact same thing 3 pages later. :rolleyes

The only difference is that I'm predicting that the next up cycle will be on the back of growth in sustainable energy and water infrastructure, and
you're just saying "smarter".

Maybe you read my posts after all... you sure like to pass them off as your own.

You're so insecure Ruff. When you say you're done you should try to mean it. Everyone had the same opinion of you today as they did yesterday. Its OK. I made a statement on one of your stupid statements, but I didn't say all of your post or all of your posts were incorrect.

But if it makes you feel better, sure, I'm coping you. You're my hero. I can't wait for the thread where I get to copy you on how to talk to women. That'll be a fun one.

So, are you still done?

[smeagol]

Stock markets are headed for another sell-off. Dow may dip below 8,000.

Doomsday scenario rapidly approaching. And the bad news hasn't hit the real economy (which it will in the coming Qs) yet.

[MannyIsGod]

Stock markets are headed for another sell-off. Dow may dip below 8,000.

Doomsday scenario rapidly approaching. And the bad news hasn't hit the real economy (which it will in the coming Qs) yet.

When does the freeze kick in? I thought it was at 7% of the DOJI?

[MannyIsGod]

Nevermind its @ 10% but since they use the value of the previous month there's that would really be almost a 15-20% drop

I think.

[MannyIsGod]

Jesus it blew right past 8000

[MannyIsGod]

But it bounced back up to 8200. That -700 at the start was pretty fucking ominous.

[RandomGuy]

I don't WANT the market to go down the tank, but any rational person that wasn't drinking the "dollar cost averaging" kool aid would certainly EXPECT the market to continue sliding.

Pardon me if I don't give into hysteria and take a long view of things.

I expect the markets to really take a dive over the next two years, just as I expect them to go up eventually.

[RandomGuy]

well the good news is that the weekend is coming up

I'm gonna party like it's 1999.

[RandomGuy]

But it bounced back up to 8200. That -700 at the start was pretty fucking ominous.

:wow

I am giving up trying to predict where this thing will stop in any logical way.

My prediction as to where this will stop dropping will be made as follows:

I will write down every 100th number from 4000-8000, each on a seperate post-it note. I will stick those notes on the wall, close my eyes and throw a dart at them until I hit one.

Give me about 20 minutes, and I will get back to y'all with the result.

[RandomGuy]

:wow

I am giving up trying to predict where this thing will stop in any logical way.

My prediction as to where this will stop dropping will be made as follows:

I will write down every 100th number from 4000-8000, each on a seperate post-it note. I will stick those notes on the wall, close my eyes and throw a dart at them until I hit one.

Give me about 20 minutes, and I will get back to y'all with the result.

Ok, I just went to random.org (no relation) and picked a random number between 4000 and 8000.

The bottom will be: 4335

You heard it here first. My randomly generated number predicts it will fall to a level not seen since 1995.

[I Love Me Some Me]

I love when you go to any news site and they have the pictures of the nervous broker biting his nails or shitting his pants.

[AlamoSpursFan]

Dang...Pepsico's below 58...I'm jacking up my contribution to the Employee Stock Purchase Plan NOW!!! Sold all the shares I had at 72.

Cha CHING!

[dickface]

looks like Bush's encouraging words have really calmed and reassured everybody.

[CosmicCowboy]

Dang. Back down over 5% and heading to 8000.

[InRareForm]

when the stock market bottoms out, which stocks are ideal to look at it when the market swings back up???

[hater]

here we go again. afternoon clearance

[Shelly]

when the stock market bottoms out, which stocks are ideal to look at it when the market swings back up???

http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dogs2008.htm

current Dog of the Dow http://www.dogsofthedow.com/ddoggish.htm

You want to be diversified.

[CosmicCowboy]

Cambells Soup should be a big winner.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Cambells Soup should be a big winner.
good point. who makes top ramen?

[SpursWoman]

I personally was looking to see if Mossberg stock is available. :fro

[SpursWoman]

Cambells Soup should be a big winner.



Campbell's soup has gotten rather pricey these days ... I'd definitely look into Ramen. :king

[nkdlunch]

the company that makes ketchup packs

[CosmicCowboy]

http://www.mdmdist.com/images/fideo.JPG

[AlamoSpursFan]

I personally was looking to see if Mossberg stock is available. :fro

Mossberg sucks. Buy Browning! :king

[AlamoSpursFan]

I just jacked my contribution from $50 a week to $150. If the stock heads below $50 (which it may very well do, last I checked it was $53), I'll be buying over 3 shares a week. Hell, maybe I should go up to $200...

[CosmicCowboy]

Markets actually trying to go sideways with a lot of bargain hunters in there. Keep your fingers crossed that it can find a temporary bottom and not go off the cliff at the close like it has the last few days.

[hater]

americans finally gonna learn how to cook stone soup

[AlamoSpursFan]

the company that makes ketchup packs

http://www.portionpac.com/

[AlamoSpursFan]

I was watching Fox Business Channel for a few minutes and it looks like the only gainers are dollar stocks on the NASDAQ. A little bit of speculating going on out there?

:lol

[CubanMustGo]

I was watching Fox Business Channel for a few minutes and it looks like the only gainers are dollar stocks on the NASDAQ. A little bit of speculating going on out there?

:lol

There are a lot more dollar stocks than there were a month ago ...

[AlamoSpursFan]

True...but these were a bunch of companies I'd never heard of, and they were up in some cases over 100%.

[Bigzax]

i wasn't hating on you or anyone else cowboy...

i find it humorous that people passing the titanic in a yacht have the nerve to sound their horns with a shit eating grin as they pass on by the mass drownings...:wakeup

[CosmicCowboy]

i wasn't hating on you or anyone else cowboy...

i find it humorous that people passing the titanic in a yacht have the nerve to sound their horns with a shit eating grin as they pass on by the mass drownings...:wakeup

This shit is going to hurt everyone. Just because I sounded my horn and said there was an iceberg ahead before most people saw it sure doesn't mean I have a shit eating grin on my face watching it happen.

[hater]

here we go again. afternoon clearance

what did I tell you? down to 7000s right now

[Mark in Austin]

I'm tempted to go get some GM stock - at this price $1000.00 worth of shares is a pretty decent bet.

[Thunder Dan]

3:00est is the time it normally free falls- so today might be the biggest drop ever if all goes the way it has- really scary times

[AlamoSpursFan]

Maybe I'll go $250...

[T Park]

Oil is down to 77.70 a barrel though!!!

Hey gotta be happy about SOMETHING come on.

[RandomGuy]

Oil is down to 77.70 a barrel though!!!

Hey gotta be happy about SOMETHING come on.

It will probably drop a good bit farther in the coming year. China isn't creating as many new drivers these days, due to some sensible cuts in state subsidies for gasoline.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

russia must be shaking in their boots

[remingtonbo2001]

The DOW just shot up close to 700-800 points in the past hour and nearly 200 points in the past 5 minutes.

Unbelievable.

[remingtonbo2001]

Looks like a jinxed the DOW, down 100 with less than 20 minutes to go.

[T Park]

It will probably drop a good bit farther in the coming year. China isn't creating as many new drivers these days, due to some sensible cuts in state subsidies for gasoline.

Bring it the fuck on.

My business could use a break on diesel prices.

[RandomGuy]

The DOW just shot up close to 700-800 points in the past hour and nearly 200 points in the past 5 minutes.

Unbelievable.

The online business press updates their "what is happening in the market" stories throughout the day.

Since stocks were in the toilet at the start of the day all the pictures were of traders with their heads in the hands or looking really grim. :grim:


Now you get the same "OMFG we're gonna die" pictures with headlines that go like this:

US stocks surge late in day after 8 days of losses


:lol

[RandomGuy]

Bring it the fuck on.

My business could use a break on diesel prices.

Not if a 20% break in diesel prices is accompanied by a 40% revenue drop. :grim:

[T Park]

Am I the only one of the opinion, if everyone STFUed about how horrible things are, and how bad they could be, that things could level off a tad.

I mean seriously, how many times can you say "this is bad this is bad" when things arent NEARLY as bad, before things become bad?

[T Park]

Not if a 20% break in diesel prices is accompanied by a 40% revenue drop. :grim:


I only saw a 9% drop in September so again if that holds true, I think I'll take the trade off :lol

[MannyIsGod]

I heard some analysts say they thought the bottom of this thing is in the 7-8% range, but that when markets correct in this manner they almost always overshoot the bottom at first.

[CosmicCowboy]

Am I the only one of the opinion, if everyone STFUed about how horrible things are, and how bad they could be, that things could level off a tad.

I mean seriously, how many times can you say "this is bad this is bad" when things arent NEARLY as bad, before things become bad?

Sometimes it's smarter to just admit things are bad and plan for it.

I was a Division President for a major publicly traded homebuilder back in the 80's before the savings and loan nightmare. Unfortunately I could see it coming. I was in a board meeting where we were discussing our projections for the next year. As they went around the table everyone was projecting 20% growth for the next year. I said I expected my division to be down 50% and told them that the rest of them were gonna be down 50% or more too...I proposed that we cease all spec construction and only break ground if we had an earnest money contract. They all looked at me like I had lost my mind. The CEO told me if I didn't think I could do 33 million the next year he would find someone that could. I told him I would have no problem building the houses but we wouldn't be able to sell them. The CEO told me that it was people like me that caused recessions and repeated that if I didn't think I could do it he would find someone that would. I said OK, walked out of the board meeting and went downstairs and cleaned out my office. Eleven months later the CEO put a gun to his head and killed himself.

[T Park]

No theres no denying that its not good.

I'm not saying that, but I don't hear anyone repeating what Manny and others are saying about how there won't be a depression due to the fact we can produce food so much easier now, technological advances. I mean were a much more prepared and better country than we were in the 20s obviously, but were smarter I think in that we would adapt quicker and things wouldn't hit that bad.

[CosmicCowboy]

*laughing at myself*

you KNOW the markets are fucked when you are relieved that the market "only" dropped another one and a half percent today.

[BacktoBasics]

The imminent collapse of the U.S. Economy to occur sometime in late 2008

The imminent collapse of the U.S. Government finances sometime in mid 2009

The possibility of Civil War inside the United States as a result of the collapse

The advance round-ups of "insurgent U.S. Citizens" likely to move against the government

The detention of those rounded up at The REX 84 Camps constructed throughout the United States

The possibility of public retaliation against members of Congress for the collapses

The location of safe facilities for members of Congress and their families to reside during massive civil unrest

The necessary and unavoidable merger of The U.S. with Canada and Mexico establishing The North American Union

The issuance of a new currency called the AMERO for all three nations as an economic solution.

[Anti.Hero]

^^You know there are those "Preparedness" people with the stocked up food/guns/etc that are getting ready to lay down the "I told you so" on the tin-foil hat calling masses LOL

[Mark in Austin]

Am I the only one of the opinion, if everyone STFUed about how horrible things are, and how bad they could be, that things could level off a tad.

I mean seriously, how many times can you say "this is bad this is bad" when things arent NEARLY as bad, before things become bad?

Yeah have you noticed how absolutely predictable and overly reactionary that markets have become over the past couple years? I can't tell you how many times I've made some pretty decent money buying up stock of solid companies who released their quarterlies and made a profit, but didn't meet expectations. The way the value drops as a result is just stupid. Then lo and behold, a couple weeks later its right back up were it was before all the knee-jerk idiots freaked out and sold.

Of course this is much more serious, but I'm so tired of there only being two modes of existance for most of wall street: absolute panic and inhuman greed.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

You're so insecure Ruff. When you say you're done you should try to mean it. Everyone had the same opinion of you today as they did yesterday. Its OK. I made a statement on one of your stupid statements, but I didn't say all of your post or all of your posts were incorrect.

But if it makes you feel better, sure, I'm coping you. You're my hero. I can't wait for the thread where I get to copy you on how to talk to women. That'll be a fun one.

So, are you still done?

:lol Insecure, that's a laugh. I just won't take your fucking crap is all.

Actually, I read the thread backwards, and when I found you posting pretty much exactly what I had already said, I decided to point it out. And my 'done' comment was that I was done with arguing with you, but when I read your post I couldn't resist.

As for the way I relate to women, I'm entirely happy with that. I am utterly and unreservedly honest, and while that may cost me a meaningless shag or two, I'm not going to change it. Women who can't handle honesty, or don't want to hear it, are obviously not for me. I happen to currently be seeing someone who has found it a revelation to meet someone like me - she didn't know they existed. So yeah, your putdowns really hurt... :lmao

I wonder how low the market will eventually bottom? 7k?

Check this chart out:

http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582

It's a great chart - note that you can drag out the timeframe to examine the current crisis compared to the last 5, 10, 15, or even 20 years... when you do the latter, '87 looks like a blip, even though it cost 1/3 of the market at the time. And what is it with October? '87 happened in October, the tech buble bottomed in October '02, the market hit it's 14,093 height in October last year before crashing 1000 points, and then there's the worst week ever in October this year. October is not a happy month for money! I know that's always been an axiom, but WHY? Cowboy, can you tell me?

Between mid-2006 and mid-2007, the DOW went from 11k to 14k, about a 28% increase, and on the basis of what exactly? There was seemingly no driver for it. How did all the analysts miss this meltdown (especially seeing as guys like Scott were warning us about it 3 years ago)?

[PEP]

The point is this is how the average American relates to the stock market. Most people don't have porfolios and don't know what the numbers mean other than if it goes down its bad.

But when they look at their monthly 401k statments and see how much they just "lost" it tends to hit home.

Tubby, I've only lost about $300 since all this crap started at the end of last week, I moved all my funds (over 50K) into a safe fund that doesnt lose anything. So I'm just waiting till maybe next week to jump back in at these bargain prices.

[CosmicCowboy]

Check this chart out:

http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582

It's a great chart - note that you can drag out the timeframe to examine the current crisis compared to the last 5, 10, 15, or even 20 years... when you do the latter, '87 looks like a blip, even though it cost 1/3 of the market at the time. And what is it with October? '87 happened in October, the tech buble bottomed in October '02, the market hit it's 14,093 height in October last year before crashing 1000 points, and then there's the worst week ever in October this year. October is not a happy month for money! I know that's always been an axiom, but WHY? Cowboy, can you tell me?

Between mid-2006 and mid-2007, the DOW went from 11k to 14k, about a 28% increase, and on the basis of what exactly? There was seemingly no driver for it. How did all the analysts miss this meltdown (especially seeing as guys like Scott were warning us about it 3 years ago)?

*sigh*

It's so simple.

1. Saturn within orb of opposing Uranus. 2. Lunar node in Aquarius (nadir of the down cycle - Louise McWhirter's theory). 3. Sun opposing Jupiter and Neptune. 4. Mars squaring Uranus.

Doing away with all the high powered investment theory and putting it in layman terms, October sucks.

[MannyIsGod]

Tubby, I've only lost about $300 since all this crap started at the end of last week, I moved all my funds (over 50K) into a safe fund that doesnt lose anything. So I'm just waiting till maybe next week to jump back in at these bargain prices.

You're a smart man then. Well played.

[CosmicCowboy]

Investing is really easy if you know all the rules.

[DannyT]

is anybody really eyeballing an specific stocks to throw money at and hope to cash out when they rebound....?

[CosmicCowboy]

is anybody really eyeballing an specific stocks to throw money at and hope to cash out when they rebound....?

It's still a few weeks early to pick...this thing still needs to find a bottom.

Off the top of my head, individual stocks that would interest me in 3 different sectors would be Wells Fargo Bank, GM, and Home Depot. I can make a case that all three have a very good upside.

[DannyT]

i was thinkg GM or ford and then Wachovia Corp...but wells might be better...its killing me not knowing when this is going to bottom out I would much rather be early though then late

[CosmicCowboy]

i was thinkg GM or ford and then Wachovia Corp...but wells might be better...its killing me not knowing when this is going to bottom out I would much rather be early though then late

I personally think the bottom is going to be wide and deep. This isn't a classic correction.

[DannyT]

who do you do your trades with?

do you purchase your stocks through your 401k or just buy and trade on your own...I am thinking about signing up with fidelity but still researching

[CosmicCowboy]

who do you do your trades with?

do you purchase your stocks through your 401k or just buy and trade on your own...I am thinking about signing up with fidelity but still researching

I am currently not in the market. Been there in the past but currently taking a pass.

I have personal reservations with a fund "family" like Fidelity. IMHO I would go with an independent advisor like the Mutual Fund Store that is a fee-based, advisor-client relationship model that can pick from the field of no loads rather than a commission based broker/fund.

http://www.mutualfundstore.com/

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

*sigh*

It's so simple.

1. Saturn within orb of opposing Uranus. 2. Lunar node in Aquarius (nadir of the down cycle - Louise McWhirter's theory). 3. Sun opposing Jupiter and Neptune. 4. Mars squaring Uranus.

Doing away with all the high powered investment theory and putting it in layman terms, October sucks.

:lol


i was thinkg GM or ford and then Wachovia Corp...but wells might be better...its killing me not knowing when this is going to bottom out I would much rather be early though then late

Danny, the market isn't going to leap back up over night - this is at very best a deep recession - so I wouldn't worry too much about value. Watch it bottom out, stabilise, and start to move up. Once it's doing that and the economy is starting to pull itself out of recession, which could be 3-5 years away, you'll have a good long period to make a bundle of money. Forget the short-term.

[DannyT]

cool cool... I know I would have to leave it in for a few years I just thought now would be the best time to throw money at it since its fairly close to the cheapest it will ever be

[Shelly]

I posted the link earlier in this thread, but follow the Dogs of the Dow.

You need to be diversified.

[DannyT]

how long ago did you post that link...ok ok I will search for it...



found it thanks....

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

cool cool... I know I would have to leave it in for a few years I just thought now would be the best time to throw money at it since its fairly close to the cheapest it will ever be

Well now, that is the big question though, isn't it? Has it hit bottom? Has all the bad debt been flushed out? I very much doubt that. I'm going to happily stay out for at least another 6 months and see where the shit falls, because right now the whole world is scared sick that the entire system could collapse. Once the debts are truly accounted for and written off, and people start lending money to each other again, that is the time to get back in.

[DannyT]

cool well hit me up in six months then...

[RandomGuy]

russia must be shaking in their boots

They are sitting on a pile of cash, but private investment (Foreign Direct Investment) in the former USSR is running away, and bet are that their output will suffer for it, as existing oil/gas fields are tapped out.

Their government looks to be buying into a LOT of companies to prop up their economy, leading to, of all things, the government owning even more companies.

Their military, however, will continue to decay. India owns more T90 tanks than the Russian army, and the bulk of their armored forces are designs 20-40 years old. Same goes for most of their airforce.

1/10th of the total draft-age males actually show up for the mandatory term of service meaning that they are the bottom 1/10th not smart enough to get out of serving.

They are trying to correct this, but if oil tanks for a while, look to them really sucking wind.

I wonder how long that vast pile of cash will last them in that case.

[RandomGuy]

... and the roller coaster continues.

Up 600+ points as of a few minutes ago.

[timvp]

Up 741.44 (8.77%)

WTF?

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

I have personal reservations with a fund "family" like Fidelity. IMHO I would go with an independent advisor like the Mutual Fund Store that is a fee-based, advisor-client relationship model that can pick from the field of no loads rather than a commission based broker/fund.

http://www.mutualfundstore.com/

http://www.workmens.com/images/products/278.jpg

[RandomGuy]

Up 741.44 (8.77%)

WTF?

Up 961 points as of a few minutes ago. :wow

Look for a lot of profit-taking tomorrow.

[RandomGuy]

Up 741.44 (8.77%)

WTF?

The EU saw our $700 billion and raised another $1.6Tr

They have collectively pledged to prop up the banking system with $2.3 Trillion, if needed.

Europe puts $2.3 trillion on line for banks (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081013/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_meltdown)

That brings the global total to $3.0 Trillion, not including whatever the Russians, Chinese and Gulf states care to pump into the system, for those who are counting. :wow

[2centsworth]

Up 961 points as of a few minutes ago. :wow

Look for a lot of profit-taking tomorrow.

not that I would ever try to guess the market, but there's not much profit to take at this point. If you want to say cutting loses, and then ok. Average profit taking would be at about 11k or so.

[Shelly]

I bought AAPL (Apple) at 106 and some change last week, saw it dip down to around 95 at it's lowest and closed today at $110.26.:tu

[tlongII]

Market was up 936 last time I checked. You people are over-reactionary.

[2Blonde]

Market was up 936 last time I checked. You people are over-reactionary.


:tu

[CosmicCowboy]

If it takes worldwide governments pumping almost 4 trillion dollars over the weekend into the banking system to get a 936 point bump, whats it gonna take to get back to 13,000?

I wouldn't be too quick to celebrate and declare a bottom has been reached.

A world wide recession was already virtually guaranteed. Nothing like turning it into an inflationary recession to really screw things up.

[T Park]

Whats it gonna take to get it back to 13 thousand?


Time and patience and riding out normal recession economics.

Simple as that. You can't constantly grow grow grow grow an economy without it coming back down at some point, its unrealistic.

[MannyIsGod]

If it takes worldwide governments pumping almost 4 trillion dollars over the weekend into the banking system to get a 936 point bump, whats it gonna take to get back to 13,000?

I wouldn't be too quick to celebrate and declare a bottom has been reached.

A world wide recession was already virtually guaranteed. Nothing like turning it into an inflationary recession to really screw things up.

They have to do something because inflation >>>> complete collapse.

That being said just wait till companies start failing on a larget scale and people start losing jobs. The market is telling you something is wrong, but wait till the pink slip tells you just how wrong things are.

[CosmicCowboy]

They have to do something because inflation >>>> complete collapse.

That being said just wait till companies start failing on a larget scale and people start losing jobs. The market is telling you something is wrong, but wait till the pink slip tells you just how wrong things are.

Manny, I'm not saying that worldwide governments didn't get backed into a corner where that was their only option. I'm saying the the celebration and "I told you so's" that this is just a normal market correction are seriously premature.

[2Blonde]

Manny, I'm not saying that worldwide governments didn't get backed into a corner where that was their only option. I'm saying the the celebration and "I told you so's" that this is just a normal market correction are seriously premature.
I didn't mean my thumbs up as an "I told you so", I meant it as in I tried not to over-react about it and now I'm glad I didn't. I wasn't making any referendum on whether countries should bail out the markets, just about my own personal reaction.:toast

[smeagol]

Volatility is not over by any means. As Manny says, wait until this mess hits the real economy, not just the banks. A couple of Qs of double digit declines in sales and negative net incomes in the manufacturing sector, and the market will take a hit again.

Bill Gates just predicted, as many other well known economists/business men, a 9% unemployment rate, something the US has not seen for 25 years.

2009 will be ugly, no matter how much money the governments of the industrialized countries pump into the system. The World economy has to purge itself, and this will take time.

A Dow at 13,000 is years away.

[remingtonbo2001]

GM was up $1.62, so they're over $6.

I'm still considering getting in as I imagine they'll hover around $6 and/or drop around $5 for awhile.

However, I predict they'll stabilize around $20 in the following 2 years.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Volatility is not over by any means. As Manny says, wait until this mess hits the real economy, not just the banks. A couple of Qs of double digit declines in sales and negative net incomes in the manufacturing sector, and the market will take a hit again.

Bill Gates just predicted, as many other well known economists/business men, a 9% unemployment rate, something the US has not seen for 25 years.

2009 will be ugly, no matter how much money the governments of the industrialized countries pump into the system. The World economy has to purge itself, and this will take time.

A Dow at 13,000 is years away.

Exactly.

Rough few years coming up.

Look to 2011-12 for the next bull cycle. Until then, buckle up.

[T Park]

Volatility is not over by any means. As Manny says, wait until this mess hits the real economy, not just the banks. A couple of Qs of double digit declines in sales and negative net incomes in the manufacturing sector, and the market will take a hit again.

Bill Gates just predicted, as many other well known economists/business men, a 9% unemployment rate, something the US has not seen for 25 years.

2009 will be ugly, no matter how much money the governments of the industrialized countries pump into the system. The World economy has to purge itself, and this will take time.

A Dow at 13,000 is years away.



9% would be, no offense, if its the bottom, fantastic.

Compared to 25% during the great depression.

If they can keep unemployment at 9%, then thats a win I think.


Bad? Of course.

[King]

I bought AAPL (Apple) at 106 and some change last week, saw it dip down to around 95 at it's lowest and closed today at $110.26.:tu

It hit $84 on Wednesday or Thursday of last week.

[T Park]

Yeah I would go bull on GM.

When the volt comes out their stock is gonna skyrocket.

[Shelly]

It hit $84 on Wednesday or Thursday of last week.

Wow! Great comeback then.

FYI AAPL is one of the stocks that's rated a buy right now.

[Extra Stout]

Yeah I would go bull on GM.

When the volt comes out their stock is gonna skyrocket.

I think GM will be forced into Chapter 11, so obviously I'm not too bullish on their stock. Once they reorganize under bankruptcy protection, they could be a pretty good penny stock.

[MannyIsGod]

Wow! Great comeback then.

FYI AAPL is one of the stocks that's rated a buy right now.

Shows you how shallow my understanding of what companies will be hurt in teh coming period is. I would imagine Apple will see dramatic sales of Ipods nad Iphones as well as their laptops and PCs.

Everyone has an Ipod now (me too but I didn't pay for mine - poker fringe benefits ftw) but those are the exact kind of things people will be buying less of now.

[MannyIsGod]

I think GM will be forced into Chapter 11, so obviously I'm not too bullish on their stock. Once they reorganize under bankruptcy protection, they could be a pretty good penny stock.

They may avoid that if they manage to merge with Chrysler.

[tlongII]

Manny, I'm not saying that worldwide governments didn't get backed into a corner where that was their only option. I'm saying the the celebration and "I told you so's" that this is just a normal market correction are seriously premature.

If you read the entire thread you will see I never said "I told you so." In fact you'll see that I never commented in this thread at all. The over reaction is by the people that think this is the Great Depression all over again. That is not the case.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

So it looks like the worldwide financial system has been saved. Thank fuck, because if it wasn't we may have seen a new dark age, and really, who's ready for that?

Now for the recession. The rebound only tells part of the story. There's still a lot of bad debt to be ferreted out, and the sub-prime crisis has a long way to go (there are still a ton of mortgages out there yet to hit their jump point).

[Extra Stout]

They may avoid that if they manage to merge with Chrysler.
First of all, that report was fictitious. The two aren't merging. Second of all, if they did merge, it would make the Studebaker-Packard marriage look like a textbook example of success.

[TDMVPDPOY]

seems like every aussie citizen is getting a AUS$1000 stimulus check to stimulate the economy....hahahhaha mad shit, which works out to be around 600-700 american dollars with the current currency rates

[RandomGuy]

I think GM will be forced into Chapter 11, so obviously I'm not too bullish on their stock. Once they reorganize under bankruptcy protection, they could be a pretty good penny stock.

but, but, but their CEO swears up and down that bankruptcy is "not an option" :rolleyes

I think you are entirely right about that.

What scares the bejeepers out of me is how many jobs that will probably cost. :spless:

Not to mention what that means for the larger economy of the US.

[TDMVPDPOY]

but, but, but their CEO swears up and down that bankruptcy is "not an option" :rolleyes

I think you are entirely right about that.

What scares the bejeepers out of me is how many jobs that will probably cost. :spless:

Not to mention what that means for the larger economy of the US.

Ford australia is cutting 500 jobs here....i dont think many of the car manufactures here wont sustain viability, they got to get out of that v6-v8 family car mentality shit, and start producing more petrol economy cars....

[T Park]

but, but, but their CEO swears up and down that bankruptcy is "not an option" :rolleyes

I think you are entirely right about that.

What scares the bejeepers out of me is how many jobs that will probably cost. :spless:

Not to mention what that means for the larger economy of the US.

God bless bad management and unions.

[CosmicCowboy]

Ford australia is cutting 500 jobs here....i dont think many of the car manufactures here wont sustain viability, they got to get out of that v6-v8 family car mentality shit, and start producing more petrol economy cars....

The economy is gonna doom all the auto makers short term. Five and six year notes without impeccable credit are a thing of the past. They will have to start producing some true "economy" cars if they want to maintain any viable sales numbers. It might be ugly and not have leather and an MP3 player and sat radio, go 0-60 in 4 seconds or all the other sales "hot" buttons, or even A/C but people are still gonna have to have a vehicle that can get them from point A to point B and they are gonna have to be able to pay for it in 3 years. Once all this government money finally soaks in to the economy and inflation kicks off it will even compound the problem...if you guys think that 20%+ interest rates aren't on the horizon when Obama and a super majority in congress gets elected you are seriously kidding yourself.

[BacktoBasics]

I don't think you'll see an abundance of 20% rates anymore than we already do. They simply won't lend. Ridiculous rates breed repos and foreclosures. People are far more likely to bail on 18-23% rates than 10-12%. The people who earn the second chance rates of 18+ just won't get done anymore and the 8-10% people will now be the 12-15%.

[ChumpDumper]

I think the auto industry will be like the airline industry for awhile. Nobody really makes any money, but those planes keep flying.

[T Park]

I think the auto industry will be like the airline industry for awhile. Nobody really makes any money, but those planes keep flying.

Whos the Southwest of the business though.

Well run and makes money.


Toyota?

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't think you'll see an abundance of 20% rates anymore than we already do. They simply won't lend. Ridiculous rates breed repos and foreclosures. People are far more likely to bail on 18-23% rates than 10-12%. The people who earn the second chance rates of 18+ just won't get done anymore and the 8-10% people will now be the 12-15%.

I'm not talking about sub-prime rates, I'm talking about general interest rates. Bank rates were 21% when Reagan took office and brought the economy back with massive tax cuts. If Obama and a super majority in congress get elected we are gonna go the other way on tax increases in a recession and interest rates WILL go up massively.

Prime + Libor (+3.65) is the true effective interest rate now...it's just not the official rate.

[ChumpDumper]

Whos the Southwest of the business though.

Well run and makes money.


Toyota?Maybe Japanese airlines make money too. I don't know. I doubt any American auto companies will be making money for awhile unless gas goes back down to $2 and stays there so stupid consumers will start buying profitable big SUVs again.

[Clandestino]

I'm not talking about sub-prime rates, I'm talking about general interest rates. Bank rates were 21% when Reagan took office and brought the economy back with massive tax cuts. If Obama and a super majority in congress get elected we are gonna go the other way on tax increases in a recession and interest rates WILL go up massively.

Prime + Libor (+3.65) is the true effective interest rate now...it's just not the official rate.

no shit! i can't tell you how many fucking times i hear people say, "i remember when cds paid 15%" i say and tell me again what was inflation?

[AlamoSpursFan]

Well caca...Pepsico's (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=adm0tOp62yaw&refer=us) already started passing out the pink slips. Only 300 at Big Snacks though. Out of 48,000 I kinda like my chances.

[TDMVPDPOY]

that gain from yesterday, is dropping already hahahahaha......

[Trainwreck2100]

that gain from yesterday, is dropping already hahahahaha......

That;s because all those that bought yesterday want to make a killing

[smeagol]

Guess where the market is headed today . . . ? = (

[CosmicCowboy]

Guess where the market is headed today . . . ? = (

Straight down. already under 9000.

Because they released a fucking REPORT that we might be heading into a recession? All those supposedly brilliant financial minds hadn't already figured that one out?

WTF?

[MannyIsGod]

LOL no shit right? The market reacts with fear irrationaly most of the time which is why short term shit doesn't mean much.

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn...just blew through 8800 and still going down.

[RandomGuy]

..if you guys think that 20%+ interest rates aren't on the horizon when Obama and a super majority in congress gets elected you are seriously kidding yourself.

How would interest rates get into 20%+ rates, and for whom would those rates apply?

[CavsSuperFan]

The stock market in downturns is kind of like figure skating during the Olympics…People that normally could care less suddenly become experts in Axel jumps, Choctaw turns and Double Toe loops…

[smeagol]

Buy puts . . .

[smeagol]

Nosedive . . . again . . . :depressed

[CosmicCowboy]

down 733.08 (7.87%)

I can remember a lot of YEARS that the stock market didn't rise or fall that much.

[CosmicCowboy]

How would interest rates get into 20%+ rates, and for whom would those rates apply?

LOL.

You must be really young.

I suggest you do a little research into the Carter years and see just how it can happen.

[JoeChalupa]

I'm glad I moved my 401K funds!!

[Dex]

I'm glad I moved my 401K funds!!

Why? Are you retiring anytime in the next 5 years?

[JoeChalupa]

Why? Are you retiring anytime in the next 5 years?

No, but I don't like losing money either. I know it is a long term investment but I've always watched the market and moved funds to gain the best return.
My parents have lost $5K in just the last quarter but they don't monitor theirs like I do mine.

[CosmicCowboy]

They just don't get it. Pull the money out, park it in a CD or TBills while the market keeps dropping...then wait till the smoke clears and put the entire amount back in instead if "riding it out" and losing 20% of your nest egg hoping the market turns...You might not hit the exact bottom but you will have more money to put in when you do get back in.

[1369]

They just don't get it. Pull the money out, park it in a CD or TBills while the market keeps dropping...then wait till the smoke clears and put the entire amount back in instead if "riding it out" and losing 20% of your nest egg hoping the market turns...You might not hit the exact bottom but you will have more money to put in when you do get back in.


Out of a 401(k)? Not me, I'd rather not pay the tax penalty.

[JoeChalupa]

Out of a 401(k)? Not me, I'd rather not pay the tax penalty.

I didn't pay any penalty. I just moved more to a bond fund where I'm not losing money.

[Anti.Hero]

Will the government suspend IRA/401k early withdrawal tax penalties?

haha too easy anti.whore-o

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

seems like every aussie citizen is getting a AUS$1000 stimulus check to stimulate the economy....hahahhaha mad shit, which works out to be around 600-700 american dollars with the current currency rates

My lord you talk some bullshit. PENSIONERS are getting that cheque, not everyone. :rolleyes

The total stimulus package is $10.5billion, and much of it is going to pensioners who are also getting another $60/fortnight.

Try actually READING the news before you "report" it.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Straight down. already under 9000.

Because they released a fucking REPORT that we might be heading into a recession? All those supposedly brilliant financial minds hadn't already figured that one out?

WTF?

Yeah, I keep hearing and reading that one too... "might be"... it's already here, you freakin tools! Wake up!

[Anti.Hero]

The world is ending, sell sell sell


Amerika cannot survive a recession, sell sell sell

[MannyIsGod]

The world is ending, sell sell sell


Amerika cannot survive a recession, sell sell sell

AHF has been low key recently so I nominate you as king of hyperbole in his stead.

[smeagol]

Lot's of news for the market to digest today:

- Asia and Europe are down

- Citibank and ML report more losses

- UBS is getting a bailout from the Swiss governement while Credit Suisse had to raise approx. US$9.0 billion

- Nevertheless, inflation numbers, which were just announced, were tame (unchanged from last month)

Futures point to a pop at the starting bell.

[RandomGuy]

LOL.

You must be really young.

I suggest you do a little research into the Carter years and see just how it can happen.

I am old enough, thank you, I just wanted you to elucidate a little. I have a fairly good idea why interest rates spiked in the Carter years, but am always willing to learn here or there.

Now, please, can you tell me why you think interest rates will climb to 20%+?

[CosmicCowboy]

Down another 2% in the first hour.

LJ, I know you were kidding (thinking it would never get there) when you said you were gonna buy at 8000 but it looks like you might get your chance today.

[RandomGuy]

Down another 2% in the first hour.

LJ, I know you were kidding (thinking it would never get there) when you said you were gonna buy at 8000 but it looks like you might get your chance today.

In a roller coaster today, trading in a 500+ point range, down 380 at one point, and currently up 160.

One can only guess at how much longer the volatility will remain, and where the market will be Dec 31st, 2010

[Viva Las Espuelas]

In a roller coaster today, trading in a 500+ point range, down 380 at one point, and currently up 160.

One can only guess at how much longer the volatility will remain, and where the market will be Dec 31st, 2010
what's the unobvious significance of that date?

[2centsworth]

what's the unobvious significance of that date?

end of tax cuts.

[smeagol]

+400 pts and flirting with 9,000 again.

What a crazy market!

[Dex]

No, but I don't like losing money either. I know it is a long term investment but I've always watched the market and moved funds to gain the best return.
My parents have lost $5K in just the last quarter but they don't monitor theirs like I do mine.


They just don't get it. Pull the money out, park it in a CD or TBills while the market keeps dropping...then wait till the smoke clears and put the entire amount back in instead if "riding it out" and losing 20% of your nest egg hoping the market turns...You might not hit the exact bottom but you will have more money to put in when you do get back in.

Yeah, but the only way this effectively works is if you pull your money out BEFORE the market tanks. Unless you were smart enough to see this coming 6 months ago, then you probably took SOME loss on all that money being transferred to CDs/Bonds/etc. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only way you're 'losing' money right now is if you're actually selling.

Once the market stabilizes, be it in 6-months or 6-years, the value of the shares for those mutual funds is gonna go back up, and ta-da...there's your money again, plus some because you've been adding to your 401k and getting shares at premium prices. The only way this won't happen is if the economy totally gives away and America goes into the shitter, and as dire as things may be, I don't think we're quite to that point yet.

It still just seems to me that as far as 401k goes, the only people this really affects are people who need to retire / cash their stocks or 401ks now, or who are reacting to the drop and cashing out / moving funds. I'm no expert with finances obviously, but I always thought freaking out and selling low was the opposite of what you're supposed to do.

[T Park]

I'm too much of a wuss to play in the market and have always kept money in a CD.

May not be the quickest way to a million, but sure seems the safest place to keep that money.

[DannyT]

How would interest rates get into 20%+ rates, and for whom would those rates apply?

do you think the days of the housing market with 5.5% rate will be gone here in the future? Do you really think they will hit double digits in the near future? We are seriously thinking about getting a house in the next six months but if that shits happens its going to be really hard. I was told that even with VA I wont get to see decent rates if this happens....A few months ago we filled out an app just to see and we got 5.8 or 5.5 something to that effect but its jumps I dont know how buying a house in six months would look like....man I hate the fact that I might have missed the buss on this one....

[2centsworth]

do you think the days of the housing market with 5.5% rate will be gone here in the future? Do you really think they will hit double digits in the near future? We are seriously thinking about getting a house in the next six months but if that shits happens its going to be really hard. I was told that even with VA I wont get to see decent rates if this happens....A few months ago we filled out an app just to see and we got 5.8 or 5.5 something to that effect but its jumps I dont know how buying a house in six months would look like....man I hate the fact that I might have missed the buss on this one....

good credit, assets and VA assures you a loan at a good rate. Don't believe the hype.

[CosmicCowboy]

do you think the days of the housing market with 5.5% rate will be gone here in the future? Do you really think they will hit double digits in the near future? We are seriously thinking about getting a house in the next six months but if that shits happens its going to be really hard. I was told that even with VA I wont get to see decent rates if this happens....A few months ago we filled out an app just to see and we got 5.8 or 5.5 something to that effect but its jumps I dont know how buying a house in six months would look like....man I hate the fact that I might have missed the buss on this one....

You should be OK within that six month window. Make sure you get copies of your credit reports now and fight every negative on it so when they run it there aren't any issues.

But yeah, I could see double digit mortgage rates again within a 3 year window.

[RandomGuy]

do you think the days of the housing market with 5.5% rate will be gone here in the future? Do you really think they will hit double digits in the near future? We are seriously thinking about getting a house in the next six months but if that shits happens its going to be really hard. I was told that even with VA I wont get to see decent rates if this happens....A few months ago we filled out an app just to see and we got 5.8 or 5.5 something to that effect but its jumps I dont know how buying a house in six months would look like....man I hate the fact that I might have missed the buss on this one....

Housing prices look to fall for a while, I would guess that we have not seen the bottom of the housing market by a long shot. If so, waiting until housing prices fall will get you more house for your cash.

Your best bet is to hoard cash in some kind of revolving CD for about 1-3 years.

If your credit is bad or even if it is good, then having a larger down payment relative to the total cost of the house will help a lot when getting a loan, along with the VA (I think you said you have the gaurantee).

Having a buttload of cash sitting around in the bank earning interest will also give you a cushion to use, just in case the coming recession hits you when you least expect it.

Seems to me that if you can hold off for a couple of years, you would be in a VERY good position. Both in terms of getting a lot of house for your money, and having a larger downpayment to make the loan a lot easier.

[BacktoBasics]

The government's effort to boost bank lending to end the credit crisis is hurting one of the areas critical to the nation's recovery: mortgage rates. In the past week, the average mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed home loan has jumped more than one half a percentage point to 6.74%, according to Bankrate.com. That might not sound like much, but it is the biggest one-week rise in the normally stable lending rate in 21 years. Some economists say mortgage rates could soon top 7%, a level they have not seen in more than six years.



I'm thinking more along these lines. I don't see much value one way or the other when it comes to housing values moving downward. Especially since they were so highly inflated to begin with.

[RandomGuy]

what's the unobvious significance of 12-31-10?

I just picked that date, as the best guesses for how long the recession will be is about 2 years.

That would be right around the hypothetical "bottom" of the market, and was why I picked that date.

There will be a lot of speculation about that number in the coming year or two.

[RandomGuy]

It should be an ongoing off-season vbookie even to predict movements of the stock market on any given day.

[TDMVPDPOY]

Its lame how these banks want us to keep money in the deposits, but give us shit interest rates returns, and the govt not garuanteed the whole amount if the bank epically fails. Why use taxpayers monies to bail out these banks, when its supposed to be the shareholders who have a infested interested, i dont own shares in a bank...why is my tax dollars bailing them out......I would prefer if the govt buys out one of the banks and it will set a better regulation into the banking sector for consumers...as competition increases.

Lol at govts telling ppl who have excess amounts in deposits which is not covered, to go buy insurance, whats the point if the insurance cant even pay out when they dont even have enough in their reserves.

[ChumpDumper]

People with more than the FDIC limits in a bank should use additional banks. That isn't rocket science.

[TDMVPDPOY]

People with more than the FDIC limits in a bank should use additional banks. That isn't rocket science.

only some banks are quaranteed or incorporated within the country than yes, if its a foreign bank but not incorporated in the country than no, depending on your countrys legislation.

No point in shifting ur money around too each different banks if theres a cap, what happens to the excess left over? might as well go buy property imo...if you can afford it, i see why not.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm only talking about banks in the US. YMMV in other countries. I see no reason to keep more than the FDIC limit in one US bank when there are so many others out there.

[Das Texan]

i have 4 bank accounts.


so thats theoretically now what 800k i could have insured according the fdic insurance


its not that hard to open a fucking bank account. if you are lucky enough to have that much money, then just have how ever many accounts necessary to hoarde all your liquid cash money.

[TDMVPDPOY]

i have 4 bank accounts.


so thats theoretically now what 800k i could have insured according the fdic insurance


its not that hard to open a fucking bank account. if you are lucky enough to have that much money, then just have how ever many accounts necessary to hoarde all your liquid cash money.

how much did you pay insurance for ur accounts?

[kris]

Correction.

The bailout was bad, but go with the numbers.

Best odds of a great depression 220:1.

Not very likely.

Bailout bill was stupid, but doesn't mean things won't bounce back in 6 months.

[Das Texan]

how much did you pay insurance for ur accounts?



0

[RandomGuy]

Stock futures had their trading halted until the normal trading day because it hit the bottom limit.

Get ready for a good 500-1000 point drop today. Yikes.

[TheThinkingMan]

I think it could be a rough day on wall street today.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yep...I expect them to hit the circuit breaker and close the market this morning...the leveraged hedge funds are gonna have to start dumping.

[hater]

that's it. say goodbye to your 401ks everyone.

[TDMVPDPOY]

The aust govt was all happy and shit 2 weeks ago that the aust economy will not go down hard like wall street, then these past 2 weeks talking about bank deposits and how much is guaranteed has scared alot of depositers/workers of the gloom economy the next 12-36months....some hedgefunds have already frozen accounts not allowing ppl to withdrawal, ppl takn out money from unguaranteed deposits set out by the govt and putting them into conventional deposit accounts of the big banks....and the insurance scam they are trying to get ppl to buy if you have deposits over +1M, just another fukn tax.....

retirees are pissd now, and so am i...

[1369]

The aust govt was all happy and shit 2 weeks ago that the aust economy will not go down hard like wall street, then these past 2 weeks talking about bank deposits and how much is guaranteed has scared alot of depositers/workers of the gloom economy the next 12-36months....some hedgefunds have already frozen accounts not allowing ppl to withdrawal, ppl takn out money from unguaranteed deposits set out by the govt and putting them into conventional deposit accounts of the big banks....and the insurance scam they are trying to get ppl to buy if you have deposits over +1M, just another fukn tax.....

From here on the other side of the pond, to me it looks like the hit commodities are taking is taking a toll on miners and WA in particular (WA is/was the fastest growing and most robust economy in Oz, isn't it?). I thought I read something where Oz *thought* they would be insulated because of the China growth and in turn the growth of WA.

The downturn in China in particular is going to cast clouds on the sector for a while as well.

[JoeChalupa]

Arghh :cuss

[TDMVPDPOY]

From here on the other side of the pond, to me it looks like the hit commodities are taking is taking a toll on miners and WA in particular (WA is/was the fastest growing and most robust economy in Oz, isn't it?). I thought I read something where Oz *thought* they would be insulated because of the China growth and in turn the growth of WA.

The downturn in China in particular is going to cast clouds on the sector for a while as well.

yeh falling price commodities, too bad china/india aint buying shit to solve everyones problems, heck even china didnt even have a bailout plan for one of its own collapse big banks......seems like australia $110B surplus aint doing shit anyway if its use, just money going down the drain imo. They are planning to release a $10b stimulus plan, where families get $1k this christmas and pensioners will see an increase in their fortnightly payments of extra $30-$50. No one is willing to spend imo...with christmas/boxing day/end of year sales just around the corner.....will not be enough to get economic activity rolling, consumer confidence is bleak....

[mrsmaalox]

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2008/06/23/wall_street_roller_coaster.gif

[CosmicCowboy]

Looks like the market is really trying to find a bottom in the 8200-8300 range. Hope it holds.

[RandomGuy]

Looks like the market is really trying to find a bottom in the 8200-8300 range. Hope it holds.

That seems to be the day's floor, although if it doesn't go up before the late in the day sell-offs, I wonder.

Meh.

Might as well pull a number out of a hat these days. I have completely given up trying to figure out where the bottom is, and anybody who says they know with any degree of certainty is trying to sell you something.

Goldbugs are still waving their arms saying "buy buy buy".

I can't wait for the price of gold to settle down to 200-300 again. I will laugh at the silly people who bought into the fad at 700+.

[Sportcamper]

Cosmic-I think “the leveraged hedge fund folks” have been selling off @ 3:30 for two weeks now…

[smeagol]

I said it a while ago . . . buy puts . . .

[smeagol]

I said it a while ago . . . buy puts . . .

Why the fuck did I sell them last Thursday?

Market looks to heading South . . . again . . .

[1369]

Cosmic-I think “the leveraged hedge fund folks” have been selling off @ 3:30 for two weeks now…

Looks like they were early today...

[CosmicCowboy]

ho hum, just another day in the market...

down another 2.6%

[hater]

holy shit. it will close at 7k at some point this week

[CavsSuperFan]

I did not get the "time to buy memo”…
Dow...9,065.12...+889.35

[JoeChalupa]

It's a start.

[CosmicCowboy]

sucker bounce.

A 50 basic point rate drop is no grounds for exuberance.

[CosmicCowboy]

sucker bounce.

A 50 basic point rate drop is no grounds for exuberance.

LOL

Fed finally announces the 50 basic point drop in interest rates that most were anticipating and the market drops 400 points in 10 minutes.

[1369]

Friday will be the big drop and could quite possibly be the floor.

[Sportcamper]

Any new updates, opinions or predictions…

[CosmicCowboy]

Any new updates, opinions or predictions…

I predict that if the market tanks tomorrow they don't call it Black Friday.

[Sportcamper]

LOL...:lol

[Sportcamper]

My real question is, “the DOW has dropped 700 points since Obama was elected"…Were investors just waiting for an excuse to bail? There is really no “new economic news since Monday...

[CosmicCowboy]

Actually there is. Some monthly reports are coming in that confirm that the recession is much worse than the optimists were predicting and the IMF just revised their projections. I'm still sticking by my prediction that this thing is gonna bottom around 7000.

[DarkReign]

Actually there is. Some monthly reports are coming in that confirm that the recession is much worse than the optimists were predicting and the IMF just revised their projections. I'm still sticking by my prediction that this thing is gonna bottom around 7000.

Is this something you do for fun or profession?

[CosmicCowboy]

Is this something you do for fun or profession?

I'm not a professional money guy if thats what you are asking. I do feel that what happens in the economy affects us all and I consider myself to be fairly well read on the subject.

[RandomGuy]

My real question is, “the DOW has dropped 700 points since Obama was elected"…Were investors just waiting for an excuse to bail? There is really no “new economic news since Monday...

Yes, actually there was a good chunk of news out there in the "oh crap, that's bad" category.

Longer-term jobless benefits hit 25-year high (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy)

"Productivity slows despite employer efforts"
"Carmakers seek help, Toyota hacks outlook"


Still, September factory orders fell 2.5 percent from August, the department said, more than three times the drop analysts expected. Excluding autos and aircraft, orders fell 3.7 percent, the steepest drop since 1992, when the department began tracking sector-specific changes.

...
The factory orders report comes a day after the widely watched Institute of Supply Management gauge of manufacturing activity plunged in October to its lowest level since the country's last deep recession, the 1981-82 downturn.



---------------------

Not exactly cheery news.

[RandomGuy]

The imminent collapse of the U.S. Economy to occur sometime in late 2008

The imminent collapse of the U.S. Government finances sometime in mid 2009

The possibility of Civil War inside the United States as a result of the collapse

The advance round-ups of "insurgent U.S. Citizens" likely to move against the government

The detention of those rounded up at The REX 84 Camps constructed throughout the United States

The possibility of public retaliation against members of Congress for the collapses

The location of safe facilities for members of Congress and their families to reside during massive civil unrest

The necessary and unavoidable merger of The U.S. with Canada and Mexico establishing The North American Union

The issuance of a new currency called the AMERO for all three nations as an economic solution.

Um. No thanks. Stop listening to Alex Jones.

[RandomGuy]

I'm not talking about sub-prime rates, I'm talking about general interest rates. Bank rates were 21% when Reagan took office and brought the economy back with massive tax cuts. If Obama and a super majority in congress get elected we are gonna go the other way on tax increases in a recession and interest rates WILL go up massively.

Prime + Libor (+3.65) is the true effective interest rate now...it's just not the official rate.

:nope

Reagan's tax cuts had less to do with that than what Volker did after the election.

Trickle down my ass.

[beefanus]

Already broke 10,000 and still headed down. This is gonna get VERY ugly.
hell yes i am soo happy

[DarkReign]

I'm not a professional money guy if thats what you are asking. I do feel that what happens in the economy affects us all and I consider myself to be fairly well read on the subject.

I wasnt doubting your insight, I was just wondering where your loyalties lie.

[DarkReign]

hell yes i am soo happy

Because?

[BradLohaus]

That's funny... I just sat down to listen to Alex Jones interview Paul Craig Roberts.

Jones is fine when he has a good guest on the show. He's tough to take when it's just him talking/yelling. He is a conspiracy theorist, but I understand a lot of the yelling, because much of what he does involves reading government documents, or stuff from the UN, IMF, CFR, the NGOs, and so on... and people don't believe it.

[Sportcamper]

Dark Reign- Loyalties? We were just discussing market trends….

Some posters like Cosmic & Travis are just smart guys that run a business, have engineering degrees & offer some astute insight on current affairs…

Of course there are other fascinating posters who start threads like “paper or plastic”, “regular or extra crispy”, “Jalapeno chips or Hot Cheetos”…. I have never questioned their loyalties...

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn. Here it comes.

without MASSIVE Federal Bailouts the big three automakers are gonna go down.

GM just burned 4.2 billion in the last quarter and will run out of money in the next six months.

The GM CEO just announced this afternoon that "reorganization" is not an option. They will just shut the motherfucker down and sell off what they can if the feds don't bail them out.

The limited options are just mind boggling.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/companies/gm/index.htm?postversion=2008110711

[tlongII]

Damn. Here it comes.

without MASSIVE Federal Bailouts the big three automakers are gonna go down.

GM just burned 4.2 billion in the last quarter and will run out of money in the next six months.

The GM CEO just announced this afternoon that "reorganization" is not an option. They will just shut the motherfucker down and sell off what they can if the feds don't bail them out.

The limited options are just mind boggling.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/companies/gm/index.htm?postversion=2008110711


Can't blame that on Obama.

[CosmicCowboy]

OK, my corn pone south texas cowboy prediction:

The US government will buy a bazillion GM "volt" cars now (coming out in 2010)

They will give any other automaker the same option on producing "green" cars.
They will "give" them to people that will pay back 10% of the value in deferred tax credits that come from checks we were going to send to them anyway.

The US government will take over all pension obligations of the US automakers from a designated date.

They will craft it in such a way that we really think that we "win" from the solution and that those people really "paid" for those cars.

From now on I think I will start calling them the Voltswagen.

People who read their history know how THAT one played out.

Just in case you are too lazy to research what I am referring to here is a link.


http://www.bytwerk.com/gpa/vw.htm

I AM NOT making political comparisons. Just pointing out that history has a way of repeating itself.
__________________

[Viva Las Espuelas]

http://www.bytwerk.com/gpa/vw.htm

that's just rich.
wasn't this the car of the hippie back in the day? hell.......even now. oh i love it!

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Electric cars aren't "environmental" anyway, unless they are recharged from renewable electricity generators (wind, solar, hydro, tidal, geothermal, etc.).

1l petrol is about equal to 10kWh of power.
1l petrol = 2.5kg CO2
1kWh (black coal-fired powerplant) = 1kg CO2

Thus, electrical cars run from coal-fired electricity are about 4x as polluting in CO2 terms as IC engines.

Note: not exact figures (approximations), used to prove a general point.

[DarkReign]

Dark Reign- Loyalties? We were just discussing market trends….

Some posters like Cosmic & Travis are just smart guys that run a business, have engineering degrees & offer some astute insight on current affairs…

Of course there are other fascinating posters who start threads like “paper or plastic”, “regular or extra crispy”, “Jalapeno chips or Hot Cheetos”…. I have never questioned their loyalties...

I think you made a very large leap in logic with my loyalties comment, so I'll ignore your previous rant.

Some people make money on a declining market. If he were a trader by profession, I would question his loyalties.

He isnt a trader, therefore no question needed.

[David Bowie]

I just got layed off this thursday by the person whom I don't work with but who owns the sompany. My supervisor (with whom I work very closely) was very much against this. I am very upset.

[CosmicCowboy]

I think you made a very large leap in logic with my loyalties comment, so I'll ignore your previous rant.

Some people make money on a declining market. If he were a trader by profession, I would question his loyalties.

He isnt a trader, therefore no question needed.

LOL

If I was a trader trying to "move the market" I sure as shit wouldn't be posting here...

[tlongII]

LOL

If I was a trader trying to "move the market" I sure as shit wouldn't be posting here...

Why not?

[RandomGuy]

Shutting up shop
Oct 9th 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

The long-feared surge in bankruptcies in America is now under way

http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12380997


These failures have contributed to a rise in bankruptcy filings in 2008 that is showing every sign of accelerating. Even before September’s record-breaking financial-sector bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, with assets of well over $600 billion, and the technical bankruptcy of Washington Mutual en route to its acquisition by JPMorgan Chase, there had already been more bankruptcies this year than in 2007. By May corporate borrowers had defaulted on 28 high-yield bonds (formerly and perhaps again to be known as “junk”), compared with 21 such defaults in the whole of 2007, according to a recent report by the corporate-renewal group at Bain & Company, a consultancy

Even before the recent intensification of the financial crisis, which has made it harder and costlier for even the best-run companies to get credit, Bain forecast that 4.8-5.9% of American high-yield bond issuers would default this year, up from 0.9% last year, with the number of large bankruptcies (companies with assets of over $100m) rising to 50-75, from 13 in 2007.

Admittedly, last year’s total was unusually low, and Bain’s forecast could be seen as nothing worse than a return to normality. But what the credit markets are now pricing in to bonds is far nastier than that. For the first time since late 2002, the average spread between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasuries now exceeds 1,000 basis points—which, for an individual bond, usually earns it the title “distressed”, implying a probability of nearly 25% of default within the following 12 months.

Wait until the trillions in credit default swaps start being called.

Scary. 5 trillion dollars in bonds globally, and CDS insurance on them tops 50+ trillion, meaning that for every one dollar of default, there is 10+ dollars of potential liability for the issuers of those CDSs.

More on this here:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96333239

[CosmicCowboy]

Another delightful day in the market. Already down 5% and going straight down with 20 minutes still to close.

Don't think this won't affect you. Credit card companies are next. Those guys live on taking your new debt and packaging it into equities they sell to others so they can keep loaning you more money on your credit card. Oops. Nobody wants that shit paper anymore so the credit card companies aren't gonna have any money. Expect the "limits" on your cards to drop and the monthly minimum payments to rise. The credit card companies are gonna want their money back.

[BacktoBasics]

Another delightful day in the market. Already down 5% and going straight down with 20 minutes still to close.

Don't think this won't affect you. Credit card companies are next. Those guys live on taking your new debt and packaging it into equities they sell to others so they can keep loaning you more money on your credit card. Oops. Nobody wants that shit paper anymore so the credit card companies aren't gonna have any money. Expect the "limits" on your cards to drop and the monthly minimum payments to rise. The credit card companies are gonna want their money back.I recently paid off and canceled my higher balanced and higher rate cards with this in mind. I kept two open for FICO and emergency purposes. The fine print the credit card companies use is so fucking broad. They can pretty much do and change as they please and there isn't a damn thing you or anyone can do about it. I'm anticipating a shack up there and its going to hurt a lot of people.

[CosmicCowboy]

Market just blew through 8000 headed straight down.

[CosmicCowboy]

Little bounce. This afternoon is gonna be wild.

[Anti.Hero]

Oh it is going to be so amusing watching Obama apply liberal business raping to this clusterfuck.

[CosmicCowboy]

LOL. I go to lunch and get back and it's back up 400 points. The "pro's" must be going nuts trying to figure out which way to jump.

[JoeChalupa]

Oh it is going to be so amusing watching Obama apply liberal business raping to this clusterfuck.

Fixing this mess won't be easy and McCain would be in the same boat.

[BacktoBasics]

Fixing this mess won't be easy and McCain would be in the same boat.
Hell both of them support bailouts. Never loved either one. I'm just hoping for the best at this point.

[JoeChalupa]

Hell both of them support bailouts. Never loved either one. I'm just hoping for the best at this point.

I concur. :tu

[CosmicCowboy]

crazy.

Market traded in a 900 point range today. There have been many years it didn't move that much. Volume was pretty light, though, so who knows what tomorrow will bring...This is almost a war between the technical guys that use formulas "value" investing based on P/E ratios (possibly based on flawed earnings estimates) and the fundamentalists that are looking at the macro economics and seeing nothing but bad news.