Obama Widens Lead (10-6-08)

[ploto]

A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country's financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a drop in the public's perception of McCain's running mate could be contributing to Obama's gains.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.

That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September.

Monday's CNN national Poll of Polls -- incorporating our new CNN survey, as well as new tracking numbers from Gallup and Hotline taken October 3-5-- shows Obama leading McCain by 7 points -- at 50 to 43 percent.

President Bush may be part of the reason why Obama's making gains. Only 24 percent of those polled approve of Bush's job as president, an all-time low for a CNN survey. See the latest polling

"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1975, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

And that's bad news for McCain, because the poll suggests a growing number of Americans believe the Republican presidential nominee would have the same policies as the current Republican president. Fifty-six percent say McCain's policies would be the same as Bush, up from 50 percent a month ago.

The financial crisis also appears to be contributing to Obama's increased lead in the poll. Sixty-eight percent are confident in the Democratic presidential nominee's ability to handle the financial crisis, 18 points ahead of McCain, and 42 points ahead of Bush.

More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency. Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.

Another hurdle for the Arizona senator is expectations. Six in 10 questioned in the poll predict that Obama will win the November election.

The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, just after President Bush signed the $700 billion federal bailout into law. By a 53 percent to 46 percent margin, Americans oppose the bill.

"One in five might have supported a different bill, but one in three believe that the government should have stayed out of the crisis completely and let the markets attempt to recover on their own.

"A majority think that the bailout package will not prevent the economy from going into a deep and prolonged recession -- but they turn thumbs-down to another bailout package if this one does not work. Only one in five would support more assistance beyond Friday's $700 billion package," Holland said.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone on October 3-5. The survey questioned 1,006 people. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

[Buddy Holly]

Crickets from the right...

[LaMarcus Bryant]

Palin's crowd gathering abilities counterbalance these shady poll results.

[Clandestino]

ask kerry what he thinks about polls

[2centsworth]

if obama loses the dems need to shut it down. you would have to question if a picture of McCain and Bin Laden having tea would even help?

[florige]

ask kerry what he thinks about polls



Actually this very day in 2004 Kerry was down in electoral college numbers....
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct06.html


Kerry was virtually tied with Bush in most battleground states or trailing by a point. This is starting to take on a look of a landslide. We shall see.....

[jochhejaam]

Poll fight! Zogby has it at Obama +4, within their margin of error.


http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/zogby_poll_mccain/2008/10/05/137437.html

[lurker23]

Actually this very day in 2004 Kerry was down in electoral college numbers....
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct06.html


Kerry was virtually tied with Bush in most battleground states or trailing by a point. This is starting to take on a look of a landslide. We shall see.....

True, but the polls flipped around a lot in October 2004, which is why I'm sure Obama isn't getting complacent, even if some of his supporters are.

Here's the same site from November 1st, 2004:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html

[florige]

True, but the polls flipped around a lot in October 2004, which is why I'm sure Obama isn't getting complacent, even if some of his supporters are.

Here's the same site from November 1st, 2004:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html



Oh trust me I'm not. I saw that lead evaporate for him quick as shit after the convention, and would be lying if I said I wasn't nervous even though I was sure it was due to a convention bounce. I just think we are dealing with a much better run campaign this time around, and a overall smarter canididate.
That race was still too close to call even though they were giving Kerry FL, OH. I mean to be honest that close to the election with only 1 point separating the two candidates, they would had been better off just putting FL and OH into the tied column. Kerry had to play catch-up and thats the same thing McCain has to do this time around.

[ploto]

The McCain campaign announced Sarah Palin is set to make a stop in North Carolina Tuesday night, two days after the Republican VP candidate stumped in Nebraska — two reliably red states that haven't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in at least three decades.

Palin's most recent travel schedule is the latest indication Barack Obama and the nation's ailing economy have put John McCain on the defensive, even in states where the prospect of a Democratic win was unthinkable only four years ago.

Palin's visit to North Carolina comes as most recent polls of the state show Obama and McCain essentially in a dead heat there. A CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll of North Carolina last month showed the candidates dead even, while some recent polls have even suggested a slight Democratic lead. CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation will release a new North Carolina poll Tuesday afternoon.

Then there’s the unknown variable of an anticipated rise in turnout in the African-American community. In 2006 that voting bloc made up 26 percent of North Carolina's electorate, with 85 percent voting for Sen. John Kerry. Obama is expected to win an even higher percentage of the black vote this cycle, with a higher expected turnout as well.

"The North Carolina of today is far more diverse than the North Carolina of twenty or even ten years ago," CNN Political Research Alan Silverleib said. "The state’s changing economy has attracted thousands of new voters willing to pull the lever for a Democratic nominee. Second, the state’s sizable African-American voting bloc is extremely energized by Obama’s candidacy. Third, the economic downturn has made Tar Heel voters — just like voters in the rest of the country — much more receptive to the Democratic message of change."

Palin's appearance in the state comes more than five months after McCain held his last public event there, delivering a speech in early May at Wake Forest on his vision for judicial appointments. The event came the same day as Indiana and North Carolina's Democratic primaries and was largely overshadowed by the still-ongoing battle between Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton.

McCain-Palin spokesman Ben Porritt said Monday the campaign remains confident the Republican ticket will carry the state.

"This is a state that Barack Obama has put millions of dollars into," he said. "This is an opportunity to speak to our supporters there and makes sure they turn out."

Porritt also declined to say whether McCain has any plans to visit North Carolina before Election Day.


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

[florige]

I see what you were referring too though. OH for instance went from 49-43% Kerry on the 24th, to 47-42% Bush on the 25th...:lol

[ElNono]

Poll fight! Zogby has it at Obama +4, within their margin of error.

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/zogby_poll_mccain/2008/10/05/137437.html

That poll is SO last week...:lol

[florige]

In 04 the race was virtually tied up till the 4th. To close to call........


http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/gallup.poll/index.html

[Yonivore]

I think CBS has a poll that shows Obama/Biden up by 4 among likely voters...so, for those that follow polls, that's so today.

[jochhejaam]

That poll is SO last week...:lol
Well, technically, since last week ended Saturday, you're right, but the latest poll data was October 3, only 3 days ago, the same day that the originally posted Gallup Poll began, (10/3-5).


Apology for your misrepresentation is accepted. ;)

[PixelPusher]

Poll fight! Zogby has it at Obama +4, within their margin of error.


http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/zogby_poll_mccain/2008/10/05/137437.html
http://bp0.blogger.com/_X8bX6IGJbvk/R29YgQvWuaI/AAAAAAAAAf4/n1DtAr52Euw/s400/DSCF1701.JPG

[SnakeBoy]

Because of the economic crisis/bailout the polls are reflecting Bush vs Obama. I expect to see the polls tighten quite a bit over the next few weeks if McCain does well in the debates.

Keep in mind the polls are weighted heavily democratic because of the increased registration. Much of this is new AA and youth voters. The big unknown is if these voters will actually turn out to vote. Historically they don't. If they do this time then it's over for McCain, if not we'll be talking about President McCain and why the polls were so wrong?

[florige]

Because of the economic crisis/bailout the polls are reflecting Bush vs Obama. I expect to see the polls tighten quite a bit over the next few weeks if McCain does well in the debates.

Keep in mind the polls are weighted heavily democratic because of the increased registration. Much of this is new AA and youth voters. The big unknown is if these voters will actually turn out to vote. Historically they don't. If they do this time then it's over for McCain, if not we'll be talking about President McCain and why the polls were so wrong?



Good point! You can wear a rock the Obama shirt all you want, or say who you plan to vote for if/when someone calls to survey you. Thats pretty easy to do.

[jochhejaam]

http://bp0.blogger.com/_X8bX6IGJbvk/R29YgQvWuaI/AAAAAAAAAf4/n1DtAr52Euw/s400/DSCF1701.JPG

Aww, too bad, you didn't beat the edit time limit with the picture change. :lol

Maybe you can do a slide presentation.

[ChumpDumper]

Wait 'til they hear about Ayers!

Wait, they already did?

And they don't give a shit?

God damn America![/desperate board Republicans]

[PixelPusher]

Aww, too bad, you didn't beat the edit time limit with the picture change. :lol

Maybe you can do a slide presentation.

I thought this one conveyed "cherry picker" better than the old one, but I can go back and dig it up if you'd like. :toast

[Yonivore]

I hesitate to burst the bubble of over-confidence that seems to be building around these polls but,...

From Slate (http://www.slate.com/id/89619/), Sept 2000:


"Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points.

It’s fashionable at this stage to caution that “anything can happen,” that Bush is “retooling,” and that the numbers can turn in Bush’s favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can’t. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over."

[MannyIsGod]

Poll fight! Zogby has it at Obama +4, within their margin of error.


http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/zogby_poll_mccain/2008/10/05/137437.html

Zogby Interactive polls are different form Zogby polls and are considered a joke through out the polling community. I'll let you do some research to find out way.

[Yonivore]

Tell us what's wrong with this one, Oh Great and Wonderful Poll Expert:

CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/06/opinion/polls/main4504633.shtml)

Fake but accurate? What?

[MannyIsGod]

Tell us what's wrong with this one, Oh Great and Wonderful Poll Expert:

CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/06/opinion/polls/main4504633.shtml)

Fake but accurate? What?

Nothing's wrong with that one. Don't confuse me with yourself or Whottt. I don't make excuse for polls. There is a reason ZI is considered horrible, you're free to research it if you'd like. You're also free to look at a single poll because you like its numbers better. You're free to do whattttttttttttttevver you'd like Yoni.

But like I said, nothing inherently incorrect about this poll.

[Yonivore]

Nothing's wrong with that one. Don't confuse me with yourself or Whottt. I don't make excuse for polls. There is a reason ZI is considered horrible, you're free to research it if you'd like. You're also free to look at a single poll because you like its numbers better. You're free to do whattttttttttttttevver you'd like Yoni.

But like I said, nothing inherently incorrect about this poll.
I choose to ridicule those who spend their time with polls and read them like tea leaves.

[ChumpDumper]

I choose to ridicule those who spend their time with polls and read them like tea leaves.So the race isn't tightening or are you ridiculing yourself for thinking it's tightening?

[MannyIsGod]

I choose to ridicule those who spend their time with polls and read them like tea leaves.

K - whatever makes you feel better.

[Yonivore]

K - whatever makes you feel better.
Thanks.

[TomBrady]

An individual poll by itself is not very useful. You must look at an aggregate of polls taken over a long period of time to really get a good idea of where this race is headed.

I suggest you all head over to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/). They have hands down the best polling analysis on the internet or anywhere for that matter. According to their models Obama is headed for a landslide victory.

The path for victory for Obama is much easier than it is for McCain as it stands right now.

[Yonivore]

An individual poll by itself is not very useful. You must look at an aggregate of polls taken over a long period of time to really get a good idea of where this race is headed.

I suggest you all head over to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/). They have hands down the best polling analysis on the internet or anywhere for that matter. According to their models Obama is headed for a landslide victory.

The path for victory for Obama is much easier than it is for McCain as it stands right now.
I'll wait until MannyisGod endorses fivethirtyeight...I'm not sure you're qualified.

[PixelPusher]

Yoni and jochhejaam have inspired me to do a little cherry picking of my own, but I decided I'd pilfer mine from Old Man Murdoch's orchard:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122332442918808789.html

[boutons_]

As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes:

29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities.

In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

(how's that pitbull bitch gimmick working out, Steve Schmidt? :lol )


There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.



There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.



There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.



There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.


McCain no longer leads in any region of the state.



In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11.

In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5

[MannyIsGod]

I'll wait until MannyisGod endorses fivethirtyeight...I'm not sure you're qualified.

I did so a long time ago. You're too slow.

[Yonivore]

I did so a long time ago. You're too slow.

Or, I was being sarcastic and don't ever really pay attention to your poll nonsense.

[MannyIsGod]

Or, I was being sarcastic and don't ever really pay attention to your poll nonsense.

I doubt that. You listen to everything I say with great intent.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

RCP averages make this look like a landslide waiting to happen, but politico has a few good articles about how racism (and the McCain campaign's increasingly explicit Jesse Helms campaigning) could be the only factor that can save McCain

[Cry Havoc]

I think Obama ends up winning this race by around the average he holds now. I expect him to widen that lead between now and the election, but the conservative voter turnout will tip this back closer to neutral. Still a comfortable victory for Obama, IMO.

McCain loses OH/MI, wins election: 1.28%.

That could be it right there. Right now Michigan is starting to lean heavily towards Obama and Ohio is in a dead heat. If McCain loses Ohio, it's over.

[jochhejaam]

Latest Zogby has it as a virtual dead-heat;

Released: October 08, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 47%, McCain 45%

The telephone tracking poll shows neither candidate with a clear advantage in the national horserace

UTICA, New York - The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as both candidates head toward the finish line, a recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.


The survey, including a three-day sample of 1,220 likely voters collected over the previous three days - approximately 400 per day from Oct. 5-7, 2008 - shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 1.9 percentage points over McCain. This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before his running mate, Sarah Palin, put in a strong performance in her one and only debate performance last Thursday.

Three Day Tracking Poll
10-7
10-6

Obama
47.1%
47.7%

McCain
45.2%
45.3%

Others/Not sure
7.7%
7.0%


The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, was conducted before Tuesday's Obama-McCain debate. It was performed by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,220 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Candidates Doing Well Among Their Own Party Members

The two candidates are doing well at attracting support from their own partisans - Obama is winning 84% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support - but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%.

Obama wins support from a slightly higher percentage of conservative voters than McCain is winning from liberal voters, but the advantage is small.

Daily Tracking Continues

This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election, keeping in touch with the daily twists and turns in the race for the White House. The running poll of about 1,200 likely voters consists of three days of polling - about 400 from each of the last three days. With each new day of polling that is folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is replaced with the fresh data, so the poll "tracks" movements and events in the campaigns. Keep up to date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1341


http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575


Most objective voters don't put much stock in the CNN poll (widely accepted as a skewed poll), not when they're polling 41% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 32% Independents. Polling 41% Dems? What other result would you expect other than one that shows Obama ahead.

[florige]

Latest Zogby has it as a virtual dead-heat;

Released: October 08, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 47%, McCain 45%

The telephone tracking poll shows neither candidate with a clear advantage in the national horserace

UTICA, New York - The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as both candidates head toward the finish line, a recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.


The survey, including a three-day sample of 1,220 likely voters collected over the previous three days - approximately 400 per day from Oct. 5-7, 2008 - shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 1.9 percentage points over McCain. This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before his running mate, Sarah Palin, put in a strong performance in her one and only debate performance last Thursday.

Three Day Tracking Poll
10-7
10-6

Obama
47.1%
47.7%

McCain
45.2%
45.3%

Others/Not sure
7.7%
7.0%


The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, was conducted before Tuesday's Obama-McCain debate. It was performed by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,220 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Candidates Doing Well Among Their Own Party Members

The two candidates are doing well at attracting support from their own partisans - Obama is winning 84% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support - but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%.

Obama wins support from a slightly higher percentage of conservative voters than McCain is winning from liberal voters, but the advantage is small.

Daily Tracking Continues

This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election, keeping in touch with the daily twists and turns in the race for the White House. The running poll of about 1,200 likely voters consists of three days of polling - about 400 from each of the last three days. With each new day of polling that is folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is replaced with the fresh data, so the poll "tracks" movements and events in the campaigns. Keep up to date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1341


http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575


Most objective voters don't put much stock in the CNN poll (widely accepted as a skewed poll), not when they're polling 41% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 32% Independents. Polling 41% Dems? What other result would you expect other than one that shows Obama ahead.




:lmao Whatever makes you guys sleep better at night I guess. Yeah, it's a dead heat....:lol

[Wild Cobra]

ask kerry what he thinks about polls

Don't forget Al Gore. Wasn't he up by 11 points on this day 8 years ago?

[MannyIsGod]

Latest Zogby has it as a virtual dead-heat;

Released: October 08, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 47%, McCain 45%

The telephone tracking poll shows neither candidate with a clear advantage in the national horserace

UTICA, New York - The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as both candidates head toward the finish line, a recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.


The survey, including a three-day sample of 1,220 likely voters collected over the previous three days - approximately 400 per day from Oct. 5-7, 2008 - shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 1.9 percentage points over McCain. This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before his running mate, Sarah Palin, put in a strong performance in her one and only debate performance last Thursday.

Three Day Tracking Poll
10-7
10-6

Obama
47.1%
47.7%

McCain
45.2%
45.3%

Others/Not sure
7.7%
7.0%


The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, was conducted before Tuesday's Obama-McCain debate. It was performed by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,220 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Candidates Doing Well Among Their Own Party Members

The two candidates are doing well at attracting support from their own partisans - Obama is winning 84% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support - but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%.

Obama wins support from a slightly higher percentage of conservative voters than McCain is winning from liberal voters, but the advantage is small.

Daily Tracking Continues

This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election, keeping in touch with the daily twists and turns in the race for the White House. The running poll of about 1,200 likely voters consists of three days of polling - about 400 from each of the last three days. With each new day of polling that is folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is replaced with the fresh data, so the poll "tracks" movements and events in the campaigns. Keep up to date every day by visiting www.zogby.com (http://www.zogby.com).

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1341


http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575


Most objective voters don't put much stock in the CNN poll (widely accepted as a skewed poll), not when they're polling 41% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 32% Independents. Polling 41% Dems? What other result would you expect other than one that shows Obama ahead.

Really? Your source for that assertion? Do most also ignore Gallup who doesn't weight by party ID at all and simply lets the chips fall where they may and uses far more respondents than Zogby? Also, what are the national party identification breakdowns? What percentage self identify themselves as democrats on a national scale?

I'll tell you what most objective poll analysts do. They look at all the polls, factor in track records, and then try to look at overall trends. And unlike you, I can provide sources for this claim.

Now, this poll is a good one if you're a McCain supporter. If you see a tightening in other polls then that serves as a verifier for this poll. If that doesn't happen, then this is more than likely an outlier.

Good result for McCain, regardless of your baseless comments.

[MannyIsGod]

Don't forget Al Gore. Wasn't he up by 11 points on this day 8 years ago?

Source?

[TomBrady]

Please stop linking to the Zogby polls. Especially the Zogby interactive ones. Notoriously unreliable.

I suggest everyone here start going to www.fivethirtyeight.com. Hands down the best polling analysis on the web.

[MannyIsGod]

Zogby Polls are fine. ZI polls are utter crap, though.

[Buddy Holly]

Don't forget Al Gore. Wasn't he up by 11 points on this day 8 years ago?

This day in 2000, Gore was down 8 to Bush in the Gallup poll.

:lol

[Anti.Hero]

Crickets from the right...

fap fap fap fap fap

[Buddy Holly]

Down 11 in the Gallop.

[jochhejaam]

Really? Your source for that assertion?

Good result for McCain, regardless of your baseless comments.



Poll interviews were conducted with 524 adult Americans who watched the debate and were conducted by telephone on September 26. All interviews were done after the end of the debate. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.


The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in to the debate <more precisely, because more dems than reps were questioned as to who won the debate>. Of the debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as Republicans and 30 percent as independents.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/27/debate.poll/

[jochhejaam]

:lmao Whatever makes you guys sleep better at night I guess. Yeah, it's a dead heat....:lol
No sleep lost here flo. If Obama wins I won't complaining (I work for a Government Agency, you help pay my salary), if McCain wins I won't be celebrating.

Whoever gets in, I hope they do a great job for our Country.

[MannyIsGod]

Poll interviews were conducted with 524 adult Americans who watched the debate and were conducted by telephone on September 26. All interviews were done after the end of the debate. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.


The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in to the debate <more precisely, because more dems than reps were questioned as to who won the debate>. Of the debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as Republicans and 30 percent as independents.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/27/debate.poll/

Here's a question for you, are there moe Dems nationide than Republicans?

[Wild Cobra]

Here's a question for you, are there moe Dems nationide than Republicans?
In my experience, thay are both somewhere between 40% to 45%. I cannot speak for everywhere, but among the people I know, republicans refuse to participate in polling more than democrats. I am a conservative liberatarian that refuses to do polls when asked. This does skew the results, and there is no accurate way to adjust for it. If we simply normalize to an approximate 45% democrat, 45% republican, 10% other, the rebublican vote often exceeds the democrat vote. I showed how a poll in a pst thread recently, that went for Obama, actually favored McCain if you did such adjustments.

[dg7md]

Don't forget Al Gore. Wasn't he up by 11 points on this day 8 years ago?

:lmao no clue what you're talking about.

Plus, that wasn't exactly a case where Bush was ELECTED over Gore.

[Nbadan]

I see what you were referring too though. OH for instance went from 49-43% Kerry on the 24th, to 47-42% Bush on the 25th...:lol

No, it didn't

Was the 2004 Election Stolen?


Republicans prevented more than 350,000 voters in Ohio from casting ballots or having their votes counted -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House.

Rolling Stone (http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen)

What's ironic is wing-nut pundits cry about voter fraud in this years general election thanks to a new Democratic Sec. of State in Ohio, but what I wanna know is where were these 'preservers of democracy' in 04 when the GOP was purging Democratic voter rolls and e-voting machines were counting negative votes for Kerry? Not so fun when the shoe is on the other foot is it?

[jochhejaam]

Here's a question for you, are there moe Dems nationide than Republicans?
Back to my point, if you poll 41% Dems and 27% Reps, the outcome should favor the Democrats.


Now, for your question; 41% Dems and 27% Reps comes out to 61 percent of the 2 major Party's voters being registered as Dems.

Question for you; Do you believe that to be an accurate percentage?

[Findog]

Don't forget Al Gore. Wasn't he up by 11 points on this day 8 years ago?

He was up by 8 points in a single Gallup poll at this time. The other polls at the time showed a much tighter race. Gore's lead in the polls evaporated after the debates. Obama's polling numbers have 2 debates baked in them.

First Gore Debate: Sigh, Roll Eyes, Condescend to Bush
Second Gore Debate: Overcompensate by saying "I agree with the Governor" 80 times
Third Gore Debate: Weirdly invade Bush's personal space

[Buddy Holly]

He was up by 8 points in a single Gallup poll at this time. The other polls at the time showed a much tighter race. Gore's lead in the polls evaporated after the debates. Obama's polling numbers have 2 debates baked in them.

Gore was down 8 points in the Gallup poll.

[Findog]

Gore was down 8 points in the Gallup poll.

There was a single poll where he was ahead by 8 at the beginning of October, so thanks for your correction. I do know that the polling reflected a very close race in the final month. Right now the polls are suggesting a solid Obama victory in the popular vote and an electoral college landslide. I think the point stands that no candidate has ever really made that up at this late a date.

Truman came from behind to beat Dewey, but polling methods were much less sophisticated back then, and Dewey's victory seemed like such a foregone conclusion that most polling stopped well before the election. Truman started his surge well before October. Humphrey quickly made up ground on Nixon once he broke with LBJ on Vietnam. Ford at one point was down 33 points to Carter in the summer but he steadily cut into that lead from that point forward.

If McCain is going to win this election, he needs something to dramatically alter the landscape.

[TomBrady]

A single by itself is USELESS. Look at the aggregate of polling done over the past month and you can clearly see a positive trend towards Obama. He has leads outside the MOE in nearly every major national poll and in just about every key battleground state. He is challenging in IN which has not gone Democratics since 1964.

This race is not tied. If it was McCain would not have to resort to the Ayers attack. He is clearly behind and if you can't accept that you're in for a big disappointment Nov. 4th.

[CubanMustGo]

A single by itself is USELESS. Look at the aggregate of polling done over the past month and you can clearly see a positive trend towards Obama. He has leads outside the MOE in nearly every major national poll and in just about every key battleground state. He is challenging in IN which has not gone Democratics since 1964.

This race is not tied. If it was McCain would not have to resort to the Ayers attack. He is clearly behind and if you can't accept that you're in for a big disappointment Nov. 4th.

Neocon definition of tie:

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/967/mapdz2.jpg

[ElNono]

Neocon definition of tie:

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/967/mapdz2.jpg

You did not tag NY as red... :lmao

[MannyIsGod]

In my experience, thay are both somewhere between 40% to 45%. I cannot speak for everywhere, but among the people I know, republicans refuse to participate in polling more than democrats. I am a conservative liberatarian that refuses to do polls when asked. This does skew the results, and there is no accurate way to adjust for it. If we simply normalize to an approximate 45% democrat, 45% republican, 10% other, the rebublican vote often exceeds the democrat vote. I showed how a poll in a pst thread recently, that went for Obama, actually favored McCain if you did such adjustments.

:lol In your experience.

This is something that is easily quantified. Here's a hint, its no where near the 40% mark for Republicans.

[MannyIsGod]

Back to my point, if you poll 41% Dems and 27% Reps, the outcome should favor the Democrats.


Now, for your question; 41% Dems and 27% Reps comes out to 61 percent of the 2 major Party's voters being registered as Dems.

Question for you; Do you believe that to be an accurate percentage?

Why can't you simply answer the question? Its obvious that if 41% of the polled are Democrats they will likely come out ahead. Thats why its important to ask whether or not 41% of the people registered in this country are actually Democrats or not.

Its not about a figure gives a party an advantadge, its about whether or not that figure is correct.

So I ask you once again, What is the party breakdown in the United States? If you are assuming what is shown is incorrect, what is correct?

[Yonivore]

A blog I steal from regularly had this to say about the polls:


Polling in the Presidential race is getting stranger. The latest Reuters/CSpan/Zogby (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081008/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_poll_6) poll has Obama up by only two points. Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) shows the race tightening from eight points to six. At the same time, the Gallup Poll (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111040/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Over-McCain-Expands.aspx) has Obama jumping out to an unprecedented eleven-point margin.

I'm pretty sure the Gallup result is an outlier, but beyond that it's hard to say what is happening. Either there is a tremendous amount of volatility in the electorate, or the pollsters are using pretty drastically different assumptions. At the moment, it is hard to be sure which way the tide is flowing.
Fuck the polls, I think they're useless...and have been for some time.

[MannyIsGod]

In 2004 this was the breakdown

29% Republicans
33% Democrats



Back to my point, if you poll 41% Dems and 27% Reps, the outcome should favor the Democrats.


Now, for your question; 41% Dems and 27% Reps comes out to 61 percent of the 2 major Party's voters being registered as Dems.

Question for you; Do you believe that to be an accurate percentage?

Now, using your own methods, in 2004 the percentage was 53 percent. You think its somehow inconceivable that changed by 8% in those four years? Its not nearly as outlandish as you try to make it sound.

[MannyIsGod]

And more recent info

http://pewresearch.org/assets/publications/773-2.gif

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans

[TomBrady]

When you look at individual polls and see them all over the map that doesn't mean that polling is inaccurate.

Let me give you an example. Say there are 10 people in a group. I want to conduct a poll on their opinion of abortion. I don't have the resources to poll all 10 people so I will only poll 5 of them. Now in this group, 7 people are PRO abortion and 3 people are ANTI abortion.

In my first poll, in which I poll 5 people, let's say I end up calling the 3 who are ANTI abortion and only 2 that are PRO abortion. From this sample it would appear that 60% of the people are ANTI abortion and 40% are PRO abortion. Doesn't make sense with what we know right?

Now, let's say I repeat this poll many many times over the course of months and years. Probability will eventually win out and the polls will reflect that indeed more people are PRO abortion than ANTI abortion. That's why I highly recommend you go to www.fivethirtyeight.com. They have statistical models that help make sense of all this polling data.

Polling isn't an exact science by any means, but it CAN give you a good idea of where the race stands if there is enough data.

[MannyIsGod]

When you look at individual polls and see them all over the map that doesn't mean that polling is inaccurate.

Let me give you an example. Say there are 10 people in a group. I want to conduct a poll on their opinion of abortion. I don't have the resources to poll all 10 people so I will only poll 5 of them. Now in this group, 7 people are PRO abortion and 3 people are ANTI abortion.

In my first poll, in which I poll 5 people, let's say I end up calling the 3 who are ANTI abortion and only 2 that are PRO abortion. From this sample it would appear that 60% of the people are ANTI abortion and 40% are PRO abortion. Doesn't make sense with what we know right?

Now, let's say I repeat this poll many many times over the course of months and years. Probability will eventually win out and the polls will reflect that indeed more people are PRO abortion than ANTI abortion. That's why I highly recommend you go to www.fivethirtyeight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com). They have statistical models that help make sense of all this polling data.

Polling isn't an exact science by any means, but it CAN give you a good idea of where the race stands if there is enough data.

I've tried explaining it to them time after time. They don't want to listen to anything about trendlines and averaging the polls. They want to focus on the individual numbers and find ways to discredit an Obama lead. Its not like its going to do them any good because all the discrediting in the world won't make McCain win.

[jochhejaam]

In 2004 this was the breakdown

29% Republicans
33% Democrats



Now, using your own methods, in 2004 the percentage was 53 percent. You think its somehow inconceivable that changed by 8% in those four years? Its not nearly as outlandish as you try to make it sound.

Merely provide us with the info that shows where 61% of the registered Major Party voters are Democrats and I'll agree that the poll wasn't contoured to favor the Dems. (I don't think that's an outlandish request)
You're giving us a lot of lip service, and a bunch of numbers, but without that 61% stat, you've submitted nothing that substantiates that the poll was fairly conducted (and don't cite just one source for the percentage, to be fair, cite several credible sources in order to provide us with the more balanced aggregate number).


And in regards to polls, I believe that everyone knows that an aggregate of credible polls is a more accurate barometer of results than a single poll.

With that in mind, why didn't you get all up in arms with the author of this thread who submitted an opinion (Obama widens lead) based on a single poll? <---rhetorical

[MannyIsGod]

The graphic I provided is up to 58% using your contorted stat. I'm not sure why you feel the need to manipulate the numbers into a different stat - oh wait yes I am - Intelltecual dishonesty.

I'm not going to run around the internet looking for statistics to show what every objective observer of the current political climate has already acknowledged. If you feel the numbers are incorrect you're free to do so. You've obviously done no research into it, you've just assumed it was incorrect. I've provided you with some statistics on the matter and if thats not enough then thats fine but I've no interest in finding anymore. I'm not the one assuming here.

Anyway, if you think the poll is off based on that difference, simply weight it to the party identification numbers that I posted above and tell me how much McCain won the debate by. Of course it will be a negative number but thats besides the point, isn't it?

[jochhejaam]

The graphic I provided is up to 58% using your contorted stat. I'm not sure why you feel the need to manipulate the numbers into a different stat - oh wait yes I am - Intelltecual dishonesty.


The 41% dems and 27% reps polled are from CNN, so if it's a distortion it's on CNN. :downspin:

A charge of intellectual dishonesty is code for "I can't back up my premise with stats". That's being intellecutally dishonest.



I've spent more time in this thread than it deserves, I'm calling it a day here. :toast

[MannyIsGod]

A charge of intellectual dishonesty is code for "I can't back up my premise with stats". That's being intellecutally dishonest.


This is exactly my point. So when will you be backing up your premise that CNN is incorrect with stats?

[jochhejaam]

This is exactly my point. CNN's polling of 41% D's and 27% R's comes out to 61% of the registered Major Party voters being D's, and that's a stat I am unable to back up.

Alright then, we'll consider that the last word.

[MannyIsGod]

LOL I did notice you ignored my point that even if you throw out those figures and use figures you're comfortable with and weight the poll Obama still wins by a large margin thereby rendering that statistic irrelevant.

You would never knowingly ignore a point though. Never.

[fyatuk]

And more recent info

http://pewresearch.org/assets/publications/773-2.gif

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans

That's a pretty interesting graph. Really bears out the historical claim of 33/33/33% roughly. There's a current adjustment going underway due to the backlash from popular opinion of the last 8 years of neocon dominance, but it'll likely go back to the historical split over the next few years once the Bush administration fades into the background. I mean, it's not likely those missing percentage of Republicans all changed their idealogies, just stopped identifying themselves out of disgust with party leadership.

Not soon enough to help McCain. The economic crises could not have happened at a worse time for McCain, especially after admitting he wasn't solid on the economy.

[florige]

No sleep lost here flo. If Obama wins I won't complaining (I work for a Government Agency, you help pay my salary), if McCain wins I won't be celebrating.

Whoever gets in, I hope they do a great job for our Country.



I don't mind my tax dollars paying for stuff that matters...:toast

And I agree with your last statement too.