timvp
10-09-2008, 01:47 PM
Tim Duncan
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2007-08 season: Duncan couldn't keep up the torrid 54.6 percent shooting of a season earlier, but that's hardly a surprise -- sudden jumps in shooting percentage like that are almost always flukes, especially when a player is past 30. Look past that, however, and you'll see a very strong season, one in which Duncan set a new career best in rebound rate and showed a notable improvement from the free-throw line -- notorious for struggling at the line, he hit 73.0 percent last season after making only 63.7 percent and 62.9 percent the previous two seasons.
We're so used to calling him a power forward that people don't bring him up in discussions of the game's best centers, but Duncan led all centers in PER and usage rate and was fifth in rebound rate. And as usual, he was an anchor for the Spurs' defense.
If I'm a Spurs fan, the two numbers that might worry me a little are the declines in his free-throw rate and shot blocking. Duncan has averaged about a free throw for every two shot attempts for most of his career; last season it was closer to one in three, and that might be the first sign he's losing some athleticism at 32. Same goes for the blocks -- he fell from 2.4 a game to 1.9 in identical minutes, with the latter figure being a career low.
Scouting report: Duncan is an underrated defender because he goes about his business in such unspectacular fashion. He doesn't swat balls 10 rows deep into the crowd or take wild chances for steals -- instead he uses his 7-foot frame and long arms to wall off opponents at the rim. Duncan is a master of not leaving his feet for blocks until the ball is shot, and will get a lot of his blocks after a quick half hop or even on tiptoes. The other benefit of this approach is that he never takes himself out of rebounding position going for a flying swat, which is a big reason his rebound rate is so dominant.
Offensively, he's a left-block post player who loves to shoot 15-footers off the glass or turn into the lane for a short jump hook. He's a good dribbler for his size and will occasionally face up slower defenders and take them off the bounce, and has cut his once-high turnover rate sharply in recent seasons. Duncan passes well out of double-teams, too, leaving defenses a dilemma over how to guard him.
2008-09 outlook: Duncan is 32 and has played deep into the playoffs nearly every season; fortunately for him the Spurs have managed his minutes extremely well. He's averaged just 34 a game the past four seasons and has stayed healthy the past three, and his PER and other numbers have held up very well -- a strong sign that the limited-minutes approach is working.
Look for the Spurs to follow a similar strategy this season. He may get a few more touches with Manu Ginobili out at the start of the season, but otherwise it should be the usual 20 points, 11 boards, 2 blocks and 50 percent shooting we've come to expect.
Most similar at age: Hakeem Olajuwon
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Manu Ginobili
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2007-08 season: Ginobili had his best season as a pro and it's an absolute crock that Brandon Roy made the All-Star team ahead of him, as his continued development as a 3-point shooter and passer has turned him into one of the game's most dominating perimeter players.
Ginobili's brilliance has stayed under the radar because of low minute totals, and even though the Spurs upped him to 31 minutes a night last season his per-game numbers don't come close to doing his season justice. On a per-40 minute basis, Ginobili averaged 25.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists, and did it with the fourth-best TS% among shooting guards. Those numbers are awfully similar to those of the guy who won the MVP award -- in fact, it was Ginobili, not Bryant, who was first among shooting guards in PER.
League-wide, Ginobili was seventh in PER, his second straight season in the top 10. Yet if you asked somebody to list the league's elite players I greatly doubt that his name would come up, at least if you weren't in Buenos Aires at the time.
But on a per-minute basis, few players can touch him. Ginobili hit 40.1 percent of his 3s, had one of the highest free-throw rates at his position, ranked seventh among guards in rebound rate, was in the top 10 among shooting guards in both blocks and steals per minute, and shot 86.0 percent from the line. His only negative stat was a subpar turnover ratio; in pretty much every other phase he was one of the 10 best players at his position.
This also explains why his ankle injury was such a problem for San Antonio in the playoff series against the Lakers. Ginobili scored 10, 7, 7 and 9 points in the Spurs' four losses in the series, and there was no way for the Spurs to make up that kind of missing production from other sources.
Scouting report: A left-hander who almost always drives that direction, Ginobili has become increasingly deft at pulling up off the dribble for 3-pointers. He'll do this on a pick-and-roll going to his left and still shoot his set-shot 3 with accuracy -- this is an extremely difficult shot and one that very few players convert regularly. He also shot much better on long twos last season, hitting 42.9 percent while taking nearly twice as many as the season before.
The threat of that jumper has made him even more devastating as a driver. Ginobili takes incredibly long strides to the basket and will change direction at unexpected angles, allowing him to knife between defenders for layups or draw contact and get to the line. Additionally, he's developed a great shot fake that he carries through all the way to the top, and will jump into the man for a foul once he has him in the air. Ginobili also sees the floor very well and can play point guard in a pinch, though he also makes crazy passes in traffic that have virtually no chance of being completed.
Defensively, Ginobili also does a good job. He tends to gamble more than the other Spurs and he has a lot of trouble defending good post players, but he does a nice job defending the wings and is unbelievably good at deflecting passes thrown by his own man.
The one concern with Ginobili is durability. His helter-skelter style is a big reason the Spurs have limited his minutes so drastically, and he's missed time with minor strains and pains every season.
2008-09 outlook: Ginobili reinjured his left ankle playing for Argentina in the Olympics and underwent surgery that will keep him out for the first two months of the season, give or take a few days. While this may be a blessing in disguise that will allow the rest of his body to heal, it's also unrealistic to expect Ginobili to immediately begin dominating again on Jan. 1. It's more likely that he'll need until the All-Star break to get his timing and feel back, and that's a huge bummer for a Spurs team that had increasingly depended on him to orchestrate the offense.
The injury could be a costly one for Ginobili too, as the Spurs have decided to delay contract extension talks until they see how he recovers.
Most similar at age: Reggie Miller
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Tony Parker
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2007-08 season: The French speedster has taken on quite an offensive load -- he led all point guards in usage rate, and his per-game averages would have been much higher but for being limited to 33.5 minutes per game.
Despite the increase in shots, Parker's scoring rate actually went down a bit because of a decline in shooting percentage. The culprit was a dip in his close-range shooting mark. Parker had hit 66.1 percent and 63.0 percent on shots in the immediate basket area over the previous two seasons, but converted only 59.8 percent last season. Unlike a lot of guards he gets the bulk of his attempts from short range, so this set his overall shooting percentage back quite a bit.
Parker also gave back the previous season's gains at the free-throw line, which might have been more predictable -- his 78.3 percent mark in 2006-07 was far above his career norms, and he sunk right back to his career mark at 71.6 percent. The shaky foul shooting and the lack of 3-pointers are two reasons his TS% marks aren't higher even though he annually is among the top guards in field goal percentage.
Scouting report: Parker is one of the fastest players in the league and one of the best finishing guards in basketball, which allows him to succeed despite a shaky outside shot and mediocre passing skills. He's deadly in transition because he's so good at changing directions, leaving a wrong-footed defender in his wake while he lays the ball in with his right hand (Parker almost never uses his left, even on layups).
In the half court, defenders try to go under the pick and force Parker to beat them from outside, but he's so fast that he can often beat the guard around the corner -- particularly going to his right. He's not as strong going left and will frequently spin back to his right even when he starts in that direction. Parker also has a good floater and will use the threat of it to head fake big men off the floor and open a path for a layup.
Parker has worked on rebuilding his shot over the past few years and has become a steadier threat from outside, especially on midrange jumpers. However, he's only a 31.4 percent career 3-point shooter and has all but abandoned the shot the past three seasons.
As a defender, Parker's foot speed is an asset -- he's strong against dribble penetration and, at 6-2, can do a decent job when bigger guards try to back him down. He almost never gambles and has one of the lowest steal rates at his position.
2008-09 outlook: Parker is 26 and has put together three successive seasons of similar quality, so this is probably about where his peak is. However, his offensive load might take another substantial increase this season because of the injury that will knock out Manu Ginobili for the early part of the season. That puts the pressure on Parker to be the team's main creator on the perimeter, and not just for himself either -- he'll have to increase his assist rate too.
He may see a boost in minutes too, so all told Parker is a good bet to set a career high and have his first 20-point season. The cost will be in his shooting percentage, which probably won't be as stellar as in past seasons.
Most similar at age: Kevin Johnson
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Bruce Bowen
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2007-08 season: Bowen was an all-defense selection for the eighth straight season, but if you play offense like this you'd better be an all-defense player. Offensively Bowen has one skill -- shooting 3s from the corner -- and is otherwise terrible. He hit 41.9 percent of his 3-pointers last season while taking more than half his shots from that distance, keeping his TS% respectable.
But chase him off the 3-point line and the possession is pretty much over. Announcers are fond of saying that he's become a better shooter off the dribble, but actually this isn't true -- he's had some of the worst 2-point percentages in basketball over the past five years and last season made only 39.5 percent inside the arc. He also had a low free-throw rate and shot just 65.2 percent from the line -- though that was a career high, believe it or not.
At least he stays out of the way when not shooting 3s: Bowen had the lowest usage rate among small forwards. However, it'd be nice to see him stick his nose into the fray underneath a bit more -- he was also second to last among small forwards in rebound rate.
Scouting report: Even at 37, Bowen is still one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball; in terms of moving his feet laterally to keep dribblers in front of him he's as good as anyone in the past two decades. Bowen doesn't block shots or get steals at a high rate, but he continually forces opponents into difficult shots and then uses his reach to get a hand in his man's face. He's at his best against players who like to dribble on the perimeter and, relatively speaking, not as good against wing players who like to post up.
Offensively Bowen stands in the corner and shoots 3s and otherwise has no role. He'll occasionally fake the 3 and dribble in for a shorter shot but is dramatically less effective when he does this, and he's a very poor finisher in transition or on drives to the basket.
He's also incredibly durable. Bowen hasn't missed a game due to injury in over six years, though his league-best iron man streak was snapped last season due to a suspension after he appeared to kick New Orleans' Chris Paul in a loose-ball skirmish -- the latest in a series of chippy plays involving Bowen during the past few years.
2008-09 outlook: Though his age is a concern, Bowen has kept himself in outstanding physical condition and has lost very little to age in his 30s. With Ime Udoka breathing down his neck for minutes at small forward, he can't afford to drop off much. While he remains among the game's best defensive players, his offense can't slip any more for him to remain a viable starter on a contending team.
Most similar at age: Dale Ellis
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Fabricio Oberto
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2007-08 season: Though he turned 33 in March, Oberto showed he's still getting the hang of this NBA thing by improving his numbers for a third straight season. He hit 60.8 percent of his shots from the floor and sharply improved his assist and turnover numbers, and was a major force on the boards. Though he rarely shot -- only two power forwards had lower usage rates -- he was fourth at his position in TS%, fifth in assist ratio, seventh in offensive rebound rate and seventh in pure point rating.
He also received an Academy Award and two Emmy nominations. Oberto is a shameless flopper who drew 33 offensive fouls last season; in his case, most of them aren't the traditional let-a-guard-run-into-you offensive foul but rather the result of hand fighting and other Jedi tricks off the ball. Oberto loves to grab an opponent's arm and then snap his head back violently when he gets a response, and officials take the bait surprisingly often. In one early-season game, he got L.A.'s Andrew Bynum so upset with this tactic that Bynum was ejected.
Scouting report: Oberto almost never attempts to score one-on-one and rarely shoots from outside. Instead, his game is about cutting off the ball to receive a pass at the basket. He's very good at reading openings when opponents double-team Tim Duncan or help against Manu Ginobili and catching a dish for a layup, and gets nearly all his baskets this way. He's mediocre at best as a shooter and doesn't elevate well near the rim, but he's very good at tapping out offensive rebounds.
Defensively, Oberto does a decent job throwing his weight around and helps out on the boards, but he doesn't block shots and isn't a particularly good weakside defender. His main attribute is frustrating opposing post players with his grabby style.
2008-09 outlook: Oberto will be in a time-share with Kurt Thomas at the "center" spot for San Antonio, and while it's unlikely he'll hit 60 percent from the floor again he should still be a high-percentage opportunist who takes advantage of the openings created by Duncan and Ginobili. Though there has to be concern about a 33-year-old role player suddenly losing it, in Oberto's case he's not depending on his leaping or quickness in the first place so there shouldn't be too much of a drop-off.
Most similar at age: Otis Thorpe
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Kurt Thomas
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2007-08 season: Thomas split the season between Seattle and San Antonio and rediscovered his midrange touch, hitting 45.3 percent of his long 2-pointers after making just 38.8 percent a year earlier for the Suns. This was especially important for Thomas because of how rarely he shoots around the basket. Though nominally a center, more than two-thirds of his shots were 2-pointers outside the immediate basket area -- only six players took a higher proportion from those spots, and of those only one (Antonio McDyess) was a big man.
Though Thomas rarely shot and virtually never got to the line -- only two centers had a lower free-throw rate -- he did two things that made him a solid complementary player. First, he didn't turn the ball over, posting the second-lowest turnover ratio among centers and ranking seventh in pure point rating. Second, he had a strong season on the glass, ranking sixth among centers in defensive rebound rate and 12th overall.
More oddly, Thomas more than doubled his steal total from the previous season and ranked fifth among centers in steals per minute. It was far and away his highest rate in recent seasons, and I can't come up with a good explanation for why.
Scouting report: Though he's 35 years old and undersized for the center position, Thomas remains a strong defender at either frontcourt spot because he's tough and knows how to position himself as a help defender, plus he's kept himself in excellent shape and still moves well. As a result, he drew 22 offensive fouls in part-time duty. Thomas isn't much of a shot-blocker but does an excellent job on the boards.
Offensively, his primary skill is the ability to hit an open 17-foot jumper, as he rarely posts up or drives into the paint. When he does score in the paint, it's most likely to be on a putback.
2008-09 outlook: Thomas signed a two-year, $8 million deal to stay in San Antonio, where he'll be in a time-share with Fabricio Oberto for the starting frontcourt spot alongside Tim Duncan. Be wary of Thomas' numbers taking a dip this season, as his 2007-08 season was very nearly a fluke rule qualifier, but he still should have value as a frontcourt defensive ace whom opponents need to guard on the outside.
Most similar at age: Aaron Williams
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Roger Mason, Jr.
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2007-08 season: Mason was one of the league's true surprise players, overcoming years of shooting struggles to nail 39.8 percent from downtown and 44.3 percent overall, both easily career bests. It was both unexpected and extremely well-timed, as Gilbert Arenas' injury left a void in the Wizards' backcourt, and paid off handsomely for Mason after the season.
Though theoretically a point guard, Mason operated more as a 3-point specialist. More than half his deliveries came from beyond the arc, the fifth-highest rate among point guards; conversely, he had the fifth-lowest rate of free-throw attempts per field goal attempt at his position. He wasn't a distributor at all; only three point guards had a worse assist ratio.
All this was possible because of his newfound accuracy. Mason had shot 33.0 percent overall and 32.4 percent on 3-pointers the season before, but at age 27 saw both his 2-point and 3-point percentages explode. He was especially good as a starter, averaging 17.4 points on 52.6 percent shooting in his nine starts. As a result, his PER ballooned to a solid 13.84 after three straight years in single digits.
Scouting report: Mason has excellent size for a point guard at 6-5, although shooting guard is probably his more natural position given his inability to penetrate and modest quickness. Indeed, quick point guards gave him trouble at the defensive end and he seemed to fare better as a defender at the off guard spot.
Offensively, his jump shot is his bread and butter, and he's able to shoot it on the catch or off the bounce. He has a quick release and can elevate over smaller defenders. He's also a great foul shooter (87.4 percent career), though he gets to the line so rarely that it hardly matters.
2008-09 outlook: Mason signed a two-year deal with San Antonio for $8 million, effectively replacing Brent Barry as the Spurs' backup shooting guard while adding the capability of filling in at the point for the notably unproductive Jacque Vaughn.
Obviously, one has to be concerned that last season was a fluke given how poor Mason's shooting percentages were in prior seasons. On the other hand, two-thirds of his career minutes came in 2007-08, so it could be the previous seasons that were the outlier. Additionally, Mason is likely to fit in better as an off-the-bench 3-point specialist than he did in Washington as a backup point guard.
Most similar at age: Hubert Davis
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Michael Finley
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2007-08 season: Finley is fading, and at this point he's pretty much an outside specialist. He took nearly half his shots from behind the arc last season and hit 37.0 percent, and another third of his tries were long 2-pointers, where he made 42.9 percent. As far as going to the basket, he doesn't really do that anymore. Fewer than a quarter of his shots came in the paint, and only two small forwards had a lower free-throw rate.
Finley continued one other positive trend that he's exhibited his whole career -- he almost never turns the ball over. Finley's 5.8 turnover ratio was the third best among small forwards, and by his standards that wasn't even a particularly good mark.
However, for Finley to succeed in this role he also needs to convert more shots. He doesn't draw fouls and doesn't create for others, so 41.4 percent from the floor and 37 percent on 3s are barely adequate for this type of player. To have much value he either needs to shoot more or convert more of the shots he's taking.
Scouting report: Finley has good size for a wing at 6-7 and remains an above-average leaper, two qualities which make him a passable wing defender even at 35. He'll occasionally play power forward when the Spurs go to small-ball lineups, too. His leaping has never translated into strong rebounding or block numbers, however, as he isn't very quick off the floor.
Offensively, Finely elevates very well on his jumper and this allows him to get his shot off even when closely defended. He's both a good outside shooter and a good foul shooter, but is more of a scorer than a pure long-range ace. He's a poor dribbler with a high handle and this is why he rarely gets to the basket, but fortunately he's aware of this and virtually never takes more than one dribble before either shooting or passing.
2008-09 outlook: Finley signed a two-year deal worth $5 million to stay with the Spurs, but with the addition of Roger Mason he's highly unlikely to play 27 minutes a game as he did last season. Though the 35-year-old Finley is clearly in decline, he can still hit jump shots and remains competent at the defensive end. Those attributes make him passable as a fourth guard, but for him to provide much oomph he'll need to hit over 40 percent of his 3-pointers.
Most similar at age: Glen Rice
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Matt Bonner
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2007-08 season: Bonner saw fairly regular playing time early in the season, but his role completely evaporated after San Antonio acquired Kurt Thomas and Robert Horry got back into the mix. He didn't help his cause by having one of his worst shooting seasons -- the normally deadly long-range bomber shot only 33.6 percent from downtown and 41.6 percent overall, ranking him only in the middle of the pack among power forwards in TS%. For an offensive specialist like Bonner, that won't cut it.
That said, Bonner has been less one-dimensional in San Antonio than he was in Toronto. He's created far more shots as a Spur and posted decent rebound rates, but the cost has been lower-percentage looks and an increase in turnovers. The lone exception was one glorious December night in Golden State, when he blew up for 25 points and 17 rebounds.
Scouting report: The biggest obstacles to more minutes for Bonner are his defensive limitations. He's 6-10 but doesn't elevate and isn't particularly mobile, so it's tough to find acceptable matchups for him. Additionally, he doesn't provide much in the way of help-side defense or shot blocking. He is physical, however, and does a decent job on the glass.
Offensively, Bonner is a spot-up 3-point shooter with a quick release off the top of his right shoulder. If defenders run him off the shot he'll head fake and drive into the paint for a shorter look, but he's not a deft dribbler and if he takes more than one bounce a turnover becomes increasingly likely.
2008-09 outlook: Bonner once again looks to be the fifth big man in a four-man rotation, playing only when injuries knock out one of the other Spurs frontcourt players. He has a chance of moving up if he can beat out Ian Mahinmi, but to do so he'll need to get back to being the guy who rained in 3s at a 42 percent clip in consecutive seasons for the Raptors. If he shoots in the mid-30s from long range, he doesn't bring enough offense to the table to offset his defensive shortcomings.
Most similar at age: Matt Bonner
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Ime Udoka
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2007-08 season: Udoka was a more aggressive offensive player than he was in Portland a season earlier, but gave back some of his shooting percentage and a few extra turnovers in the bargain, so his PER hardly budged. One major positive was the uptick in rebounding, as he finished fifth among small forwards in defensive rebound rate and 16th overall.
Udoka hit 37 percent of his 3-pointers, his second straight strong season from beyond the arc, but hit only 47.1 percent of his 2-pointers and did so with a low free-throw rate, so overall his TS% was subpar. He also made far too many turnovers for a perimeter player, ranking just 46th out of 62 small forwards in turnover ratio.
Scouting report: Udoka's calling card is defense; he'd be the primary wing stopper on almost any other team and was used that way whenever Bruce Bowen checked out of the game. Though Udoka isn't quite as long or quick as Bowen he's much stronger and has the same dogged mentality. Although he's 6-6 he saw occasional duty as a power forward when the Spurs went small.
Offensively Udoka's game is more limited. He likes to spot up in the corners for 3s or to take a single dribble and pull up for a midrange 2. He's a decent dribbler but doesn't elevate well so he has trouble finishing around the basket, plus he lacks the jets to get to the rim consistently. Once in a blue moon he'll get a post-up on the block against a small defender, but this isn't his strength.
2008-09 outlook: Udoka earned more minutes as last season wore on, and with Bowen and Michael Finley getting rather long in the tooth, Manu Ginobili injured and Robert Horry departed, he could increase his role further this season. On a per-minute basis, don't expect his production to change much -- though he feels like a "new" player Udoka is actually 31 years old, meaning he's nearly as great a risk for decline as the guys whose jobs he's chasing.
Most similar at age: Jaren Jackson
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Jacque Vaughn
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2007-08 season: If Vaughn posts a PER of 11.00, as he did in 2006-07, then his defense makes him a decent backup point guard. If he's at 9.16, as he was last season, then it's a different story. Vaughn managed to keep the job all season, but he was one of the league's most marginal backups and his playing time declined as the season went on. In the playoffs, the Spurs increasingly opted to use Manu Ginobili as the de facto backup point guard.
Vaughn's shooting numbers didn't change much, but oddly his passing numbers did. A pass-first point guard his whole career, Vaughn saw his assist ratio take a dive last season and he ranked just 34th at his position in pure point rating. He also was useless on the boards, posting the fourth-worst rebound rate among point guards.
Vaughn sharply cut his foul rate, which had been ridiculously high the previous two seasons. He'll still take bad fouls trying to pressure the ball, but last season this happened with far less frequency.
Scouting report: Vaughn doesn't shoot 3s, but will take a midrange J if left open. Half his attempts last season came from that distance, and he converted a quasi-respectable 39.7 percent of them. He has decent quickness and can handle the ball, so he is a threat to drive the ball all the way to the basket. He doesn't call his own number much, though, ranking in the bottom 10 among point guards in usage rate.
Defensively, Vaughn is tough and smart (except for those silly ball-pressure fouls), and he makes ballhandlers work getting the ball up the floor. He's a bit small so big guards give him some trouble, but he does a nice job of cutting off opposing guards' penetration and will take charges.
2008-09 outlook: The drafting of George Hill was a bit of a shot across Vaughn's bow, as the 33-year-old will have to fend off a challenge from the rookie in order to remain the Spurs' backup point guard. If he does retain the gig, he'll need to be a more active distributor, as the loss of Ginobili for the first half of the season means Vaughn will have to create more shots when he's out there with the second unit. At this point in his career he's almost certainly a No. 3 point guard, but he may be able to hold on to the backup job for one more season.
Most similar at age: Sherman Douglas
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Ian Mahinmi
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2007-08 season: The Spurs brought the 2005 first-rounder over from France and he was fantastic ... in the 23 minutes he played. What has to be more encouraging, however, is how well he played in the D-League, where San Antonio gave him nearly a full season with his team-owned farm club in Austin.
Mahinmi had one of the best PERs in the D-League and was surprisingly potent offensively -- his rep was as a defender. He shot 61.5 percent from the floor and, get this, 76.6 percent from the line. He was turnover prone, but that's probably because he was a go-to guy on this team, which has no chance of happening in the NBA.
Mahinmi's rebound and blocked shot rates weren't as high as one might have expected, but that's about the only mildly disappointing part of his season.
Scouting report: Mahinmi was compared to Ben Wallace when the Spurs drafted him, but it's clear he's going to be more of an offensive player and less of a defender than that comparison implied. His translated numbers from Europe a year earlier were awful, so it's clear the game experience he got in Austin was of great benefit -- Mahinmi took up the game at a late age and was very raw. He doesn't turn 22 until November, so his game is still on the upswing.
2008-09 outlook: Mahinmi may be ready to step up to a rotation spot with the big club, as he seems likely to be the primary backup behind Tim Duncan at the center, er, power forward spot for San Antonio. He's essentially battling Matt Bonner for those minutes and will beat him out if he performs even halfway decently at the offensive end. Since his numbers from a season ago suggest he'll be a competent finisher at the NBA level, that shouldn't be a problem.
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George Hill
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2007-08 season: The Spurs surprised many when they took the relative unknown from tiny IUPUI as their first-round draft pick -- he wasn't even in the league's pre-draft media guide -- but Hill's numbers translate to a passable NBA backup. Although he's more of a shoot-first point guard, the Spurs had success with a similar move a few years ago when they selected Tony Parker. Hill will be given every opportunity to move ahead of Jacque Vaughn on the depth chart, and if he can provide some scoring punch off the bench he might be particularly valuable in the first half of the season when Manu Ginobili is sidelined.
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Salim Stoudamire
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2006-07 season: Stoudamire's third season was largely a lost one, as ankle problems and some puzzlingly cold shooting conspired to keep Stoudamire behind the bench in civilian clothes for most of the year.
The biggest mystery in Stoudamire's pro career so far is why he's only made 36.6 percent of his pro 3-point attempts. One of the deadliest shooters in recent college history and a you've-got-to-see-this marksman in pre-game drills, his inability to cash in more consistently when left open has neutered his one true differentiating skill as an NBA player.
Scouting report: Stoudamire has to shoot the lights out to establish a role because of his other shortcomings. He's a poor ballhandler and has no court vision whatsoever, so even though he's 6-1, 175, he needs to play off the ball. He also struggles at the defensive end, where he has average lateral quickness and often gives up inches; his effort in this area has been inconsistent as well.
Offensively, he has a scorer's mentality which sometimes works to his detriment -- he'll force some long 2-point jumpers and can be a ball-stopper. He has virtually unlimited range on his high-arcing lefty threes and is as comfortable shooting them off the dribble as he is off the catch.
2008-09 outlook: Stoudamire signed a one-year, minimum deal with San Antonio, where he'll try to earn minutes as a long-range sniper off the bench. As shooters go they got one of the best, but there's a question of whether Stoudamire's attitude has been sufficiently mended so that he can fit in with the rest of the Spurs' Boy Scouts. San Antonio needs some new blood, though, and he's a low-risk proposition; if he can hit over 40 percent of his threes he'll likely be calling the Alamo City home for a while.
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Anthony Tolliver
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2007-08 season: Tolliver was an undrafted 2007 Creighton grad who didn't play an NBA game last season. He played 25 games in the D-League and did nothing worth writing home about, although his 36 percent mark on 3-pointers was a nice effort from a 6-9 power forward.
Scouting report: Tolliver is a no-frills guy, regarded as a sound defender who is reasonably competent in every phase but not particularly great in any one. He's a good perimeter shooter for his size and plays with great effort, so that might make him a good end-of-the-bench type.
2008-09 outlook: Tolliver signed a one-year deal with the Spurs after a strong summer league, although he may spend more time with the Austin Toros than he does with the parent club. I'm not sure he's really an NBA player, and he'd probably need a few injuries to hit the frontcourt to have a legitimate chance at playing regularly.
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Malik Hairston
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2008-09 outlook: The second-round pick by the Spurs will have trouble making the roster and might be headed to Europe. Hairston is a 6-6 swingman who can shoot -- he hit 43 percent on 3s his last two years at Oregon -- but is a bit chunky looking and might not have the quickness to hang with NBA wings. With the Spurs' roster already crowded he might be better off bolting to Europe for a year or two.
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2007-08 season: Duncan couldn't keep up the torrid 54.6 percent shooting of a season earlier, but that's hardly a surprise -- sudden jumps in shooting percentage like that are almost always flukes, especially when a player is past 30. Look past that, however, and you'll see a very strong season, one in which Duncan set a new career best in rebound rate and showed a notable improvement from the free-throw line -- notorious for struggling at the line, he hit 73.0 percent last season after making only 63.7 percent and 62.9 percent the previous two seasons.
We're so used to calling him a power forward that people don't bring him up in discussions of the game's best centers, but Duncan led all centers in PER and usage rate and was fifth in rebound rate. And as usual, he was an anchor for the Spurs' defense.
If I'm a Spurs fan, the two numbers that might worry me a little are the declines in his free-throw rate and shot blocking. Duncan has averaged about a free throw for every two shot attempts for most of his career; last season it was closer to one in three, and that might be the first sign he's losing some athleticism at 32. Same goes for the blocks -- he fell from 2.4 a game to 1.9 in identical minutes, with the latter figure being a career low.
Scouting report: Duncan is an underrated defender because he goes about his business in such unspectacular fashion. He doesn't swat balls 10 rows deep into the crowd or take wild chances for steals -- instead he uses his 7-foot frame and long arms to wall off opponents at the rim. Duncan is a master of not leaving his feet for blocks until the ball is shot, and will get a lot of his blocks after a quick half hop or even on tiptoes. The other benefit of this approach is that he never takes himself out of rebounding position going for a flying swat, which is a big reason his rebound rate is so dominant.
Offensively, he's a left-block post player who loves to shoot 15-footers off the glass or turn into the lane for a short jump hook. He's a good dribbler for his size and will occasionally face up slower defenders and take them off the bounce, and has cut his once-high turnover rate sharply in recent seasons. Duncan passes well out of double-teams, too, leaving defenses a dilemma over how to guard him.
2008-09 outlook: Duncan is 32 and has played deep into the playoffs nearly every season; fortunately for him the Spurs have managed his minutes extremely well. He's averaged just 34 a game the past four seasons and has stayed healthy the past three, and his PER and other numbers have held up very well -- a strong sign that the limited-minutes approach is working.
Look for the Spurs to follow a similar strategy this season. He may get a few more touches with Manu Ginobili out at the start of the season, but otherwise it should be the usual 20 points, 11 boards, 2 blocks and 50 percent shooting we've come to expect.
Most similar at age: Hakeem Olajuwon
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Manu Ginobili
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2007-08 season: Ginobili had his best season as a pro and it's an absolute crock that Brandon Roy made the All-Star team ahead of him, as his continued development as a 3-point shooter and passer has turned him into one of the game's most dominating perimeter players.
Ginobili's brilliance has stayed under the radar because of low minute totals, and even though the Spurs upped him to 31 minutes a night last season his per-game numbers don't come close to doing his season justice. On a per-40 minute basis, Ginobili averaged 25.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists, and did it with the fourth-best TS% among shooting guards. Those numbers are awfully similar to those of the guy who won the MVP award -- in fact, it was Ginobili, not Bryant, who was first among shooting guards in PER.
League-wide, Ginobili was seventh in PER, his second straight season in the top 10. Yet if you asked somebody to list the league's elite players I greatly doubt that his name would come up, at least if you weren't in Buenos Aires at the time.
But on a per-minute basis, few players can touch him. Ginobili hit 40.1 percent of his 3s, had one of the highest free-throw rates at his position, ranked seventh among guards in rebound rate, was in the top 10 among shooting guards in both blocks and steals per minute, and shot 86.0 percent from the line. His only negative stat was a subpar turnover ratio; in pretty much every other phase he was one of the 10 best players at his position.
This also explains why his ankle injury was such a problem for San Antonio in the playoff series against the Lakers. Ginobili scored 10, 7, 7 and 9 points in the Spurs' four losses in the series, and there was no way for the Spurs to make up that kind of missing production from other sources.
Scouting report: A left-hander who almost always drives that direction, Ginobili has become increasingly deft at pulling up off the dribble for 3-pointers. He'll do this on a pick-and-roll going to his left and still shoot his set-shot 3 with accuracy -- this is an extremely difficult shot and one that very few players convert regularly. He also shot much better on long twos last season, hitting 42.9 percent while taking nearly twice as many as the season before.
The threat of that jumper has made him even more devastating as a driver. Ginobili takes incredibly long strides to the basket and will change direction at unexpected angles, allowing him to knife between defenders for layups or draw contact and get to the line. Additionally, he's developed a great shot fake that he carries through all the way to the top, and will jump into the man for a foul once he has him in the air. Ginobili also sees the floor very well and can play point guard in a pinch, though he also makes crazy passes in traffic that have virtually no chance of being completed.
Defensively, Ginobili also does a good job. He tends to gamble more than the other Spurs and he has a lot of trouble defending good post players, but he does a nice job defending the wings and is unbelievably good at deflecting passes thrown by his own man.
The one concern with Ginobili is durability. His helter-skelter style is a big reason the Spurs have limited his minutes so drastically, and he's missed time with minor strains and pains every season.
2008-09 outlook: Ginobili reinjured his left ankle playing for Argentina in the Olympics and underwent surgery that will keep him out for the first two months of the season, give or take a few days. While this may be a blessing in disguise that will allow the rest of his body to heal, it's also unrealistic to expect Ginobili to immediately begin dominating again on Jan. 1. It's more likely that he'll need until the All-Star break to get his timing and feel back, and that's a huge bummer for a Spurs team that had increasingly depended on him to orchestrate the offense.
The injury could be a costly one for Ginobili too, as the Spurs have decided to delay contract extension talks until they see how he recovers.
Most similar at age: Reggie Miller
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Tony Parker
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2007-08 season: The French speedster has taken on quite an offensive load -- he led all point guards in usage rate, and his per-game averages would have been much higher but for being limited to 33.5 minutes per game.
Despite the increase in shots, Parker's scoring rate actually went down a bit because of a decline in shooting percentage. The culprit was a dip in his close-range shooting mark. Parker had hit 66.1 percent and 63.0 percent on shots in the immediate basket area over the previous two seasons, but converted only 59.8 percent last season. Unlike a lot of guards he gets the bulk of his attempts from short range, so this set his overall shooting percentage back quite a bit.
Parker also gave back the previous season's gains at the free-throw line, which might have been more predictable -- his 78.3 percent mark in 2006-07 was far above his career norms, and he sunk right back to his career mark at 71.6 percent. The shaky foul shooting and the lack of 3-pointers are two reasons his TS% marks aren't higher even though he annually is among the top guards in field goal percentage.
Scouting report: Parker is one of the fastest players in the league and one of the best finishing guards in basketball, which allows him to succeed despite a shaky outside shot and mediocre passing skills. He's deadly in transition because he's so good at changing directions, leaving a wrong-footed defender in his wake while he lays the ball in with his right hand (Parker almost never uses his left, even on layups).
In the half court, defenders try to go under the pick and force Parker to beat them from outside, but he's so fast that he can often beat the guard around the corner -- particularly going to his right. He's not as strong going left and will frequently spin back to his right even when he starts in that direction. Parker also has a good floater and will use the threat of it to head fake big men off the floor and open a path for a layup.
Parker has worked on rebuilding his shot over the past few years and has become a steadier threat from outside, especially on midrange jumpers. However, he's only a 31.4 percent career 3-point shooter and has all but abandoned the shot the past three seasons.
As a defender, Parker's foot speed is an asset -- he's strong against dribble penetration and, at 6-2, can do a decent job when bigger guards try to back him down. He almost never gambles and has one of the lowest steal rates at his position.
2008-09 outlook: Parker is 26 and has put together three successive seasons of similar quality, so this is probably about where his peak is. However, his offensive load might take another substantial increase this season because of the injury that will knock out Manu Ginobili for the early part of the season. That puts the pressure on Parker to be the team's main creator on the perimeter, and not just for himself either -- he'll have to increase his assist rate too.
He may see a boost in minutes too, so all told Parker is a good bet to set a career high and have his first 20-point season. The cost will be in his shooting percentage, which probably won't be as stellar as in past seasons.
Most similar at age: Kevin Johnson
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Bruce Bowen
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2007-08 season: Bowen was an all-defense selection for the eighth straight season, but if you play offense like this you'd better be an all-defense player. Offensively Bowen has one skill -- shooting 3s from the corner -- and is otherwise terrible. He hit 41.9 percent of his 3-pointers last season while taking more than half his shots from that distance, keeping his TS% respectable.
But chase him off the 3-point line and the possession is pretty much over. Announcers are fond of saying that he's become a better shooter off the dribble, but actually this isn't true -- he's had some of the worst 2-point percentages in basketball over the past five years and last season made only 39.5 percent inside the arc. He also had a low free-throw rate and shot just 65.2 percent from the line -- though that was a career high, believe it or not.
At least he stays out of the way when not shooting 3s: Bowen had the lowest usage rate among small forwards. However, it'd be nice to see him stick his nose into the fray underneath a bit more -- he was also second to last among small forwards in rebound rate.
Scouting report: Even at 37, Bowen is still one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball; in terms of moving his feet laterally to keep dribblers in front of him he's as good as anyone in the past two decades. Bowen doesn't block shots or get steals at a high rate, but he continually forces opponents into difficult shots and then uses his reach to get a hand in his man's face. He's at his best against players who like to dribble on the perimeter and, relatively speaking, not as good against wing players who like to post up.
Offensively Bowen stands in the corner and shoots 3s and otherwise has no role. He'll occasionally fake the 3 and dribble in for a shorter shot but is dramatically less effective when he does this, and he's a very poor finisher in transition or on drives to the basket.
He's also incredibly durable. Bowen hasn't missed a game due to injury in over six years, though his league-best iron man streak was snapped last season due to a suspension after he appeared to kick New Orleans' Chris Paul in a loose-ball skirmish -- the latest in a series of chippy plays involving Bowen during the past few years.
2008-09 outlook: Though his age is a concern, Bowen has kept himself in outstanding physical condition and has lost very little to age in his 30s. With Ime Udoka breathing down his neck for minutes at small forward, he can't afford to drop off much. While he remains among the game's best defensive players, his offense can't slip any more for him to remain a viable starter on a contending team.
Most similar at age: Dale Ellis
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Fabricio Oberto
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2007-08 season: Though he turned 33 in March, Oberto showed he's still getting the hang of this NBA thing by improving his numbers for a third straight season. He hit 60.8 percent of his shots from the floor and sharply improved his assist and turnover numbers, and was a major force on the boards. Though he rarely shot -- only two power forwards had lower usage rates -- he was fourth at his position in TS%, fifth in assist ratio, seventh in offensive rebound rate and seventh in pure point rating.
He also received an Academy Award and two Emmy nominations. Oberto is a shameless flopper who drew 33 offensive fouls last season; in his case, most of them aren't the traditional let-a-guard-run-into-you offensive foul but rather the result of hand fighting and other Jedi tricks off the ball. Oberto loves to grab an opponent's arm and then snap his head back violently when he gets a response, and officials take the bait surprisingly often. In one early-season game, he got L.A.'s Andrew Bynum so upset with this tactic that Bynum was ejected.
Scouting report: Oberto almost never attempts to score one-on-one and rarely shoots from outside. Instead, his game is about cutting off the ball to receive a pass at the basket. He's very good at reading openings when opponents double-team Tim Duncan or help against Manu Ginobili and catching a dish for a layup, and gets nearly all his baskets this way. He's mediocre at best as a shooter and doesn't elevate well near the rim, but he's very good at tapping out offensive rebounds.
Defensively, Oberto does a decent job throwing his weight around and helps out on the boards, but he doesn't block shots and isn't a particularly good weakside defender. His main attribute is frustrating opposing post players with his grabby style.
2008-09 outlook: Oberto will be in a time-share with Kurt Thomas at the "center" spot for San Antonio, and while it's unlikely he'll hit 60 percent from the floor again he should still be a high-percentage opportunist who takes advantage of the openings created by Duncan and Ginobili. Though there has to be concern about a 33-year-old role player suddenly losing it, in Oberto's case he's not depending on his leaping or quickness in the first place so there shouldn't be too much of a drop-off.
Most similar at age: Otis Thorpe
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Kurt Thomas
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2007-08 season: Thomas split the season between Seattle and San Antonio and rediscovered his midrange touch, hitting 45.3 percent of his long 2-pointers after making just 38.8 percent a year earlier for the Suns. This was especially important for Thomas because of how rarely he shoots around the basket. Though nominally a center, more than two-thirds of his shots were 2-pointers outside the immediate basket area -- only six players took a higher proportion from those spots, and of those only one (Antonio McDyess) was a big man.
Though Thomas rarely shot and virtually never got to the line -- only two centers had a lower free-throw rate -- he did two things that made him a solid complementary player. First, he didn't turn the ball over, posting the second-lowest turnover ratio among centers and ranking seventh in pure point rating. Second, he had a strong season on the glass, ranking sixth among centers in defensive rebound rate and 12th overall.
More oddly, Thomas more than doubled his steal total from the previous season and ranked fifth among centers in steals per minute. It was far and away his highest rate in recent seasons, and I can't come up with a good explanation for why.
Scouting report: Though he's 35 years old and undersized for the center position, Thomas remains a strong defender at either frontcourt spot because he's tough and knows how to position himself as a help defender, plus he's kept himself in excellent shape and still moves well. As a result, he drew 22 offensive fouls in part-time duty. Thomas isn't much of a shot-blocker but does an excellent job on the boards.
Offensively, his primary skill is the ability to hit an open 17-foot jumper, as he rarely posts up or drives into the paint. When he does score in the paint, it's most likely to be on a putback.
2008-09 outlook: Thomas signed a two-year, $8 million deal to stay in San Antonio, where he'll be in a time-share with Fabricio Oberto for the starting frontcourt spot alongside Tim Duncan. Be wary of Thomas' numbers taking a dip this season, as his 2007-08 season was very nearly a fluke rule qualifier, but he still should have value as a frontcourt defensive ace whom opponents need to guard on the outside.
Most similar at age: Aaron Williams
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Roger Mason, Jr.
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2007-08 season: Mason was one of the league's true surprise players, overcoming years of shooting struggles to nail 39.8 percent from downtown and 44.3 percent overall, both easily career bests. It was both unexpected and extremely well-timed, as Gilbert Arenas' injury left a void in the Wizards' backcourt, and paid off handsomely for Mason after the season.
Though theoretically a point guard, Mason operated more as a 3-point specialist. More than half his deliveries came from beyond the arc, the fifth-highest rate among point guards; conversely, he had the fifth-lowest rate of free-throw attempts per field goal attempt at his position. He wasn't a distributor at all; only three point guards had a worse assist ratio.
All this was possible because of his newfound accuracy. Mason had shot 33.0 percent overall and 32.4 percent on 3-pointers the season before, but at age 27 saw both his 2-point and 3-point percentages explode. He was especially good as a starter, averaging 17.4 points on 52.6 percent shooting in his nine starts. As a result, his PER ballooned to a solid 13.84 after three straight years in single digits.
Scouting report: Mason has excellent size for a point guard at 6-5, although shooting guard is probably his more natural position given his inability to penetrate and modest quickness. Indeed, quick point guards gave him trouble at the defensive end and he seemed to fare better as a defender at the off guard spot.
Offensively, his jump shot is his bread and butter, and he's able to shoot it on the catch or off the bounce. He has a quick release and can elevate over smaller defenders. He's also a great foul shooter (87.4 percent career), though he gets to the line so rarely that it hardly matters.
2008-09 outlook: Mason signed a two-year deal with San Antonio for $8 million, effectively replacing Brent Barry as the Spurs' backup shooting guard while adding the capability of filling in at the point for the notably unproductive Jacque Vaughn.
Obviously, one has to be concerned that last season was a fluke given how poor Mason's shooting percentages were in prior seasons. On the other hand, two-thirds of his career minutes came in 2007-08, so it could be the previous seasons that were the outlier. Additionally, Mason is likely to fit in better as an off-the-bench 3-point specialist than he did in Washington as a backup point guard.
Most similar at age: Hubert Davis
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Michael Finley
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2007-08 season: Finley is fading, and at this point he's pretty much an outside specialist. He took nearly half his shots from behind the arc last season and hit 37.0 percent, and another third of his tries were long 2-pointers, where he made 42.9 percent. As far as going to the basket, he doesn't really do that anymore. Fewer than a quarter of his shots came in the paint, and only two small forwards had a lower free-throw rate.
Finley continued one other positive trend that he's exhibited his whole career -- he almost never turns the ball over. Finley's 5.8 turnover ratio was the third best among small forwards, and by his standards that wasn't even a particularly good mark.
However, for Finley to succeed in this role he also needs to convert more shots. He doesn't draw fouls and doesn't create for others, so 41.4 percent from the floor and 37 percent on 3s are barely adequate for this type of player. To have much value he either needs to shoot more or convert more of the shots he's taking.
Scouting report: Finley has good size for a wing at 6-7 and remains an above-average leaper, two qualities which make him a passable wing defender even at 35. He'll occasionally play power forward when the Spurs go to small-ball lineups, too. His leaping has never translated into strong rebounding or block numbers, however, as he isn't very quick off the floor.
Offensively, Finely elevates very well on his jumper and this allows him to get his shot off even when closely defended. He's both a good outside shooter and a good foul shooter, but is more of a scorer than a pure long-range ace. He's a poor dribbler with a high handle and this is why he rarely gets to the basket, but fortunately he's aware of this and virtually never takes more than one dribble before either shooting or passing.
2008-09 outlook: Finley signed a two-year deal worth $5 million to stay with the Spurs, but with the addition of Roger Mason he's highly unlikely to play 27 minutes a game as he did last season. Though the 35-year-old Finley is clearly in decline, he can still hit jump shots and remains competent at the defensive end. Those attributes make him passable as a fourth guard, but for him to provide much oomph he'll need to hit over 40 percent of his 3-pointers.
Most similar at age: Glen Rice
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Matt Bonner
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2007-08 season: Bonner saw fairly regular playing time early in the season, but his role completely evaporated after San Antonio acquired Kurt Thomas and Robert Horry got back into the mix. He didn't help his cause by having one of his worst shooting seasons -- the normally deadly long-range bomber shot only 33.6 percent from downtown and 41.6 percent overall, ranking him only in the middle of the pack among power forwards in TS%. For an offensive specialist like Bonner, that won't cut it.
That said, Bonner has been less one-dimensional in San Antonio than he was in Toronto. He's created far more shots as a Spur and posted decent rebound rates, but the cost has been lower-percentage looks and an increase in turnovers. The lone exception was one glorious December night in Golden State, when he blew up for 25 points and 17 rebounds.
Scouting report: The biggest obstacles to more minutes for Bonner are his defensive limitations. He's 6-10 but doesn't elevate and isn't particularly mobile, so it's tough to find acceptable matchups for him. Additionally, he doesn't provide much in the way of help-side defense or shot blocking. He is physical, however, and does a decent job on the glass.
Offensively, Bonner is a spot-up 3-point shooter with a quick release off the top of his right shoulder. If defenders run him off the shot he'll head fake and drive into the paint for a shorter look, but he's not a deft dribbler and if he takes more than one bounce a turnover becomes increasingly likely.
2008-09 outlook: Bonner once again looks to be the fifth big man in a four-man rotation, playing only when injuries knock out one of the other Spurs frontcourt players. He has a chance of moving up if he can beat out Ian Mahinmi, but to do so he'll need to get back to being the guy who rained in 3s at a 42 percent clip in consecutive seasons for the Raptors. If he shoots in the mid-30s from long range, he doesn't bring enough offense to the table to offset his defensive shortcomings.
Most similar at age: Matt Bonner
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Ime Udoka
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2007-08 season: Udoka was a more aggressive offensive player than he was in Portland a season earlier, but gave back some of his shooting percentage and a few extra turnovers in the bargain, so his PER hardly budged. One major positive was the uptick in rebounding, as he finished fifth among small forwards in defensive rebound rate and 16th overall.
Udoka hit 37 percent of his 3-pointers, his second straight strong season from beyond the arc, but hit only 47.1 percent of his 2-pointers and did so with a low free-throw rate, so overall his TS% was subpar. He also made far too many turnovers for a perimeter player, ranking just 46th out of 62 small forwards in turnover ratio.
Scouting report: Udoka's calling card is defense; he'd be the primary wing stopper on almost any other team and was used that way whenever Bruce Bowen checked out of the game. Though Udoka isn't quite as long or quick as Bowen he's much stronger and has the same dogged mentality. Although he's 6-6 he saw occasional duty as a power forward when the Spurs went small.
Offensively Udoka's game is more limited. He likes to spot up in the corners for 3s or to take a single dribble and pull up for a midrange 2. He's a decent dribbler but doesn't elevate well so he has trouble finishing around the basket, plus he lacks the jets to get to the rim consistently. Once in a blue moon he'll get a post-up on the block against a small defender, but this isn't his strength.
2008-09 outlook: Udoka earned more minutes as last season wore on, and with Bowen and Michael Finley getting rather long in the tooth, Manu Ginobili injured and Robert Horry departed, he could increase his role further this season. On a per-minute basis, don't expect his production to change much -- though he feels like a "new" player Udoka is actually 31 years old, meaning he's nearly as great a risk for decline as the guys whose jobs he's chasing.
Most similar at age: Jaren Jackson
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Jacque Vaughn
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2007-08 season: If Vaughn posts a PER of 11.00, as he did in 2006-07, then his defense makes him a decent backup point guard. If he's at 9.16, as he was last season, then it's a different story. Vaughn managed to keep the job all season, but he was one of the league's most marginal backups and his playing time declined as the season went on. In the playoffs, the Spurs increasingly opted to use Manu Ginobili as the de facto backup point guard.
Vaughn's shooting numbers didn't change much, but oddly his passing numbers did. A pass-first point guard his whole career, Vaughn saw his assist ratio take a dive last season and he ranked just 34th at his position in pure point rating. He also was useless on the boards, posting the fourth-worst rebound rate among point guards.
Vaughn sharply cut his foul rate, which had been ridiculously high the previous two seasons. He'll still take bad fouls trying to pressure the ball, but last season this happened with far less frequency.
Scouting report: Vaughn doesn't shoot 3s, but will take a midrange J if left open. Half his attempts last season came from that distance, and he converted a quasi-respectable 39.7 percent of them. He has decent quickness and can handle the ball, so he is a threat to drive the ball all the way to the basket. He doesn't call his own number much, though, ranking in the bottom 10 among point guards in usage rate.
Defensively, Vaughn is tough and smart (except for those silly ball-pressure fouls), and he makes ballhandlers work getting the ball up the floor. He's a bit small so big guards give him some trouble, but he does a nice job of cutting off opposing guards' penetration and will take charges.
2008-09 outlook: The drafting of George Hill was a bit of a shot across Vaughn's bow, as the 33-year-old will have to fend off a challenge from the rookie in order to remain the Spurs' backup point guard. If he does retain the gig, he'll need to be a more active distributor, as the loss of Ginobili for the first half of the season means Vaughn will have to create more shots when he's out there with the second unit. At this point in his career he's almost certainly a No. 3 point guard, but he may be able to hold on to the backup job for one more season.
Most similar at age: Sherman Douglas
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Ian Mahinmi
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2007-08 season: The Spurs brought the 2005 first-rounder over from France and he was fantastic ... in the 23 minutes he played. What has to be more encouraging, however, is how well he played in the D-League, where San Antonio gave him nearly a full season with his team-owned farm club in Austin.
Mahinmi had one of the best PERs in the D-League and was surprisingly potent offensively -- his rep was as a defender. He shot 61.5 percent from the floor and, get this, 76.6 percent from the line. He was turnover prone, but that's probably because he was a go-to guy on this team, which has no chance of happening in the NBA.
Mahinmi's rebound and blocked shot rates weren't as high as one might have expected, but that's about the only mildly disappointing part of his season.
Scouting report: Mahinmi was compared to Ben Wallace when the Spurs drafted him, but it's clear he's going to be more of an offensive player and less of a defender than that comparison implied. His translated numbers from Europe a year earlier were awful, so it's clear the game experience he got in Austin was of great benefit -- Mahinmi took up the game at a late age and was very raw. He doesn't turn 22 until November, so his game is still on the upswing.
2008-09 outlook: Mahinmi may be ready to step up to a rotation spot with the big club, as he seems likely to be the primary backup behind Tim Duncan at the center, er, power forward spot for San Antonio. He's essentially battling Matt Bonner for those minutes and will beat him out if he performs even halfway decently at the offensive end. Since his numbers from a season ago suggest he'll be a competent finisher at the NBA level, that shouldn't be a problem.
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George Hill
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2007-08 season: The Spurs surprised many when they took the relative unknown from tiny IUPUI as their first-round draft pick -- he wasn't even in the league's pre-draft media guide -- but Hill's numbers translate to a passable NBA backup. Although he's more of a shoot-first point guard, the Spurs had success with a similar move a few years ago when they selected Tony Parker. Hill will be given every opportunity to move ahead of Jacque Vaughn on the depth chart, and if he can provide some scoring punch off the bench he might be particularly valuable in the first half of the season when Manu Ginobili is sidelined.
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Salim Stoudamire
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2006-07 season: Stoudamire's third season was largely a lost one, as ankle problems and some puzzlingly cold shooting conspired to keep Stoudamire behind the bench in civilian clothes for most of the year.
The biggest mystery in Stoudamire's pro career so far is why he's only made 36.6 percent of his pro 3-point attempts. One of the deadliest shooters in recent college history and a you've-got-to-see-this marksman in pre-game drills, his inability to cash in more consistently when left open has neutered his one true differentiating skill as an NBA player.
Scouting report: Stoudamire has to shoot the lights out to establish a role because of his other shortcomings. He's a poor ballhandler and has no court vision whatsoever, so even though he's 6-1, 175, he needs to play off the ball. He also struggles at the defensive end, where he has average lateral quickness and often gives up inches; his effort in this area has been inconsistent as well.
Offensively, he has a scorer's mentality which sometimes works to his detriment -- he'll force some long 2-point jumpers and can be a ball-stopper. He has virtually unlimited range on his high-arcing lefty threes and is as comfortable shooting them off the dribble as he is off the catch.
2008-09 outlook: Stoudamire signed a one-year, minimum deal with San Antonio, where he'll try to earn minutes as a long-range sniper off the bench. As shooters go they got one of the best, but there's a question of whether Stoudamire's attitude has been sufficiently mended so that he can fit in with the rest of the Spurs' Boy Scouts. San Antonio needs some new blood, though, and he's a low-risk proposition; if he can hit over 40 percent of his threes he'll likely be calling the Alamo City home for a while.
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Anthony Tolliver
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2007-08 season: Tolliver was an undrafted 2007 Creighton grad who didn't play an NBA game last season. He played 25 games in the D-League and did nothing worth writing home about, although his 36 percent mark on 3-pointers was a nice effort from a 6-9 power forward.
Scouting report: Tolliver is a no-frills guy, regarded as a sound defender who is reasonably competent in every phase but not particularly great in any one. He's a good perimeter shooter for his size and plays with great effort, so that might make him a good end-of-the-bench type.
2008-09 outlook: Tolliver signed a one-year deal with the Spurs after a strong summer league, although he may spend more time with the Austin Toros than he does with the parent club. I'm not sure he's really an NBA player, and he'd probably need a few injuries to hit the frontcourt to have a legitimate chance at playing regularly.
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Malik Hairston
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2008-09 outlook: The second-round pick by the Spurs will have trouble making the roster and might be headed to Europe. Hairston is a 6-6 swingman who can shoot -- he hit 43 percent on 3s his last two years at Oregon -- but is a bit chunky looking and might not have the quickness to hang with NBA wings. With the Spurs' roster already crowded he might be better off bolting to Europe for a year or two.