Season preview: San Antonio Spurs (SI.com)

[duncan228]

Season preview: San Antonio Spurs (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/paul_forrester/10/17/spurs.preview/?eref=sircrc)
Paul Forrester

http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x282/duncan228/temp%20duncan/sipreview08.jpg
Since Tim Duncan's arrival in 1997, the Spurs have won at least 64 percent of their games each season.
Greg Nelson/SI

Projected 2008-09 lineup

Starters

PG Tony Parker
SG Michael Finley
SF Bruce Bowen
PF Tim Duncan
C Fabricio Oberto

Reserves

F Matt Bonner
SG Manu Ginobili
PG George Hill | Jacque Vaughn
C Ian Mahinmi
SG Roger Mason | Salim Stoudamire
F/C Kurt Thomas
SF Ime Udoka

Spurs at a glance

• Last season: 56-26; lost in Western Conference finals to Lakers

• Notable additions: Roger Mason (FA), Salim Stoudamire (FA), George Hill (R)

• Notable losses: Brent Barry (signed with Rockets), Robert Horry and Damon Stoudamire (unsigned)

• Coach: Gregg Popovich (632-302 in 12 seasons with Spurs)

Reasons for hope

1. They know the drill. The Spurs have played an integral role in shaping the Western Conference race every season of the 11-year Tim Duncan era. They have compiled a 615-255 record (.707 winning percentage) and won four championships during that stretch. This team has confronted every kind of situation, and usually succeeded. San Antonio also understands how to work through the grind of the regular season and turn it up a notch in the playoffs. That type of know-how, coupled with the All-Star abilities of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, is a formidable combination.

2. They're well-coached. Is it possible that a man with four championship rings could be underrated? Despite the postseason success, 632 career victories and the third-best winning percentage in league history, Popovich is rarely mentioned in the same breath with the likes of Phil Jackson and Pat Riley when the subject turns to all-time great coaches. Sure, he's had Duncan the whole time -- just like Jackson had Michael Jordan and then Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant, just like Riley had Magic Johnson followed by Patrick Ewing and Shaq and Dwyane Wade. Whether it's allowing Steve Nash to become a scorer while the rest of the Suns flounder on offense, or carefully limiting the minutes of his veterans to keep them fresh for the postseason, Popovich orchestrates his bunch with aplomb.

3. The D is always there. The Spurs' throttling of opposing offenses has been a fact of life for years. In fact, San Antonio has ranked in the top five in field-goal-percentage defense in every season since 1997-98. It's that sort of stinginess that has neutralized everyone from individual talents such as LeBron James to team juggernauts like the run-and-gun Suns.

Reasons for worry

1. They're long in the tooth. While a team can hide a player or two who has slowed because of age, the Spurs have to adjust for almost everyone expected to play meaningful minutes. Duncan is 32 and frontcourt mate Fabricio Oberto is 33. Ginobili and backup swingman Ume Idoka are 31. Reserves Michael Finley (35) and Kurt Thomas (36) are entering their 14th seasons, and defensive ace Bruce Bowen is chasing around the NBA's top scorers at age 37. Veteran guile has its limits.

2. An unhealthy Manu. Ginobili is expected to be sidelined until at least mid-December after ankle surgery. While that won't derail the Spurs' season, it could put a sizable dent in it. San Antonio relies heavily on the backcourt scoring of Ginobili and Parker. Without half that duo for several weeks, the Spurs might dig a hole that results in a low playoff seed and a tougher road to winning the West.

3. Best-laid plans spoiled. The Spurs had hoped that 2007 first-round pick Tiago Splitter would join with 2005 first-rounder Ian Mahinmi, who starred in the D-League last season, to bolster the aging front line this season. But Splitter, a 23-year-old Brazilian power forward, decided to re-sign with Spain's Tau Ceramica. Meanwhile, Popovich wanted to use the 6-foot-10 Mahinmi frequently in exhibition games, but the Frenchman has not played because of a sprained ankle. Mahinmi will be playing catch-up once the regular season starts, never an easy task for a young player who is trying to establish himself in the rotation.

Keep an eye on ...

Mason. The fifth-year shooting guard, who was the Spurs' biggest offseason acquisition, is expected to be tested immediately because of Ginobili's absence. Mason received consistent minutes for the first time in his career last season, averaging 9.1 points in 21.4 minutes while shooting 39.8 percent from three-point range for the Wizards. He obviously can't replace Ginobili's production, but every little bit will help as the Spurs search for scoring options beyond Parker and Duncan.

Go figure

LeBron, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki were the only players who scored more points per 48 minutes of clutch time (five-point game in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime) than Ginobili last season.

Bottom line

The Ginobili injury isn't a good start, but the Spurs will stay afloat early behind Duncan, Parker and the defense before Manu returns in time to lead a second-half push. If Popovich is able to manage his key players' minutes again, there's no reason the Spurs shouldn't reach the West's final four. But given the confidence that the younger, talented Hornets have after taking the Spurs to seven games in last season's playoffs, and the knowledge that the younger, talented Lakers have that they can beat San Antonio, Popovich and Co. appear destined to fall short of the NBA Finals again.

Blogger's Take

Matthew Powell of Pounding The Rock offers his thoughts on the Spurs' prospects for the season:

The Spurs' primary offseason goal should have been getting much, much younger. The acquisition of 28-year-old Roger Mason was a decent beginning, but unfortunately the Spurs followed with the re-signing of two pick-your-cliche-veterans: Kurt Thomas and the remains of Michael Finley. The supporting cast around the Big Three just isn't good enough.

[lefty]

SI.com = Lakerscocksuckers

[xtremesteven33]

not a very good analysis.....

[I. Hustle]

:jack

[InRareForm]

Vanilla Previews are so exciting!

[T Park]

Shocking, they think the Lakers are better because of beating a team without it's second best player being healthy.

[Xylus]

SI.com, ESPN, and FoxSports.net are all in bed with the Lakers, and have been for years. Charley Rosen is Phil Jackson's gay lover, and L.A. Adande can't write an article unless Kobe or Bynum is mentioned.

[I. Hustle]

LeBron, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki were the only players who scored more points per 48 minutes of clutch time (five-point game in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime) than Ginobili last season.

Bottom line

The Ginobili injury isn't a good start, but the Spurs will stay afloat early behind Duncan, Parker and the defense before Manu returns in time to lead a second-half push. If Popovich is able to manage his key players' minutes again, there's no reason the Spurs shouldn't reach the West's final four. But given the confidence that the younger, talented Hornets have after taking the Spurs to seven games in last season's playoffs, and the knowledge that the younger, talented Lakers have that they can beat San Antonio, Popovich and Co. appear destined to fall short of the NBA Finals again.

Ok Manu was only behind Kobe LeBron and Dirk. So that means a healthy Manu would have scored that much more and yet still the lakers are better?

[angelbelow]

haha

[duncan228]

Edit: In my original post I messed up Matthew Powell of Pounding The Rock's take. It's fixed now. :oops

[G-Nob]

I agree with this analysis, however, this guy hasn't been watching basketball very long. He's in the minority that think Pop is underrated. I beg to differ. Everyone involved in this league knows who he is and what he has done.

[exstatic]

We get a column written by their newbie. SA is arguably THE team of the past decade, and Marty Burns is too busy re-arranging his sock drawer? WTF?

[spursnatic]

Go FUCK yourselves SI.com!!!What is the point in getting to the Finals if you cannot win in the Finals? LA Lakers are best at that and that is all that they are the best at. FUCK THE LAKERS!!!!!:flag::lobt::lobt::lobt::lobt::lobt2::f lag:

[Russ]

Season preview: San Antonio Spurs (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/paul_forrester/10/17/spurs.preview/?eref=sircrc)
The Spurs' primary offseason goal should have been getting much, much younger.

This may be a watershed moment for the Spurs that will live on and on, in retrospect, for years. The Spurs by hook, crook, or luck have a cadre of promising young players. They need to make the right calls on whom to keep and be creative in order to keep as many as possible.

There's a Raja Bell or two in there.

Bonner seems to be a roster spot that will never reach production.

Is Mahinmi a china doll or a future contributor?

The future hangs in the balance and D day is now.

[m33p0]

:crossedfingers:

[SenorSpur]

SI.com, ESPN, and FoxSports.net are all in bed with the Lakers, and have been for years.

...and I hope all three of those media outlets contract an STD. :lol

[Mavs<Spurs]

Spurs need points out of Finley and Mason especially in the first two months of the regular season if they are to win half of their games.

Duncan will get 18 and 10.
Parker will get 22 and 6.

But we need 15 ppg out Finley.
We need 13 ppg out of Mason.



If we can get that out of those four, then the rest of the team can get us to 90. Oberto, Bowen, Bonner, Hill, Udoka, Salim.

It's a big ask and it may not happen, but it's our only chance.

I don't know that our defense will be so cohesive (with the new players) that we will be able to keep teams under 90.


That's just for the first two months.

Then, january comes. How rusty will Manu be, what kind of shape, basketball shape will he be in?

How will his shot be? Will he be the springy, athletic Manu and healthy for the rest of the year?

If so, then we can win the trophy again.

We need the 2005 Manu to be an elite team.

The only other solution is if Tony starts scoring 30 points a game.

Tony is easily our best scorer now and I think he knows it. In that sense, he is responsible for our offense now, not Tim Duncan. He helps Tim more than Tim helps him now in terms of getting shots.

[tav1]

That passes for sportswriting? SI is crap.

[byrdman31]

:bking

[ShoogarBear]

Edit: In my original post I messed up Matthew Powell of Pounding The Rock's take. It's fixed now. :oops

His takes are usually messed up anyway.