ACORN is helping the Republican

[Wild Cobra]

They sure are, but not purposely. With so many new fraudulent democrat registrations, polling places are over sampling democrats. I read someplace that the poll takers are going by the numbers of registered voters, and that there are now so many more democrats than republicans. As a result, the polls are wrong. This will make the Obama campaign focus less on states they cannot afford to, and the reverse for republicans. This will probably help bring a republican majority in too!

The way polls are currently sampled, you can take the democrat number and multiply by 0.906 and take the republican number and multiply by 1.106.

Todays RCP average for battleground states:

Obama McCain State
50.6 44.6 Colorado
48.8 45.5 Ohio
49.2 46.0 Florida
49.0 44.8 Nevada
48.8 45.8 Missouri
47.3 46.0 North Carolina
53.3 44.7 Virginia

With corrections:

45.8 49.3 Colorado
44.2 50.3 Ohio
44.6 50.9 Florida
44.4 49.5 Nevada
44.2 50.7 Missouri
42.9 50.9 North Carolina
48.3 49.4 Virginia

Now with the cheating going on in Ohio, it will still go to Obama. However, unless his numbers go to double digit leads, don't expect him to win those states. This still isn't counting the Bradley Effect (or whatever it's called.)

[clambake]

:lmao

[Oh, Gee!!]

:lmao


:lmao:lmao

[ChumpDumper]

I'll let Manny field this one.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

I'll let Manny field this one.
he's busy shaking hands and contributing to his 401k

[ChumpDumper]

True, but he has already dealt with it anyway. It's easy enough to find with his screen name and the keyword weight.

[Wild Cobra]

Well, we will see if I'm wrong in November, right?

[hater]

keep telling yourself that to feel better

[ChumpDumper]

Well, we will see if I'm wrong in November, right?
If you could give more of a source than "I read somewhere" I might be willing to look at it.

I don't believe anything you say otherwise. You have made up too much complete bullshit in the past for anyone to take your word for it.

[Buddy Holly]

wild cobra = http://www.dw-world.de/image/0,,1281527_1,00.jpg

:lol:lol:lol:lol

[Wild Cobra]

If you could give more of a source than "I read somewhere" I might be willing to look at it.

I don't believe anything you say otherwise. You have made up too much complete bullshit in the past for anyone to take your word for it.

My God. If I wanted to, I could own you so easily over this, with the way you carry on.

Point is, what I read was:

poll takers are going by the numbers of registered voters

OK? I also saw an interview with a pollster that said the same thing on TV. He cautioned that there is an oversampling because of ACORN registrations too.

The rest I extrapolated myself from available numbers. Sure, it's not an exact science, but I'll bet it's more accurate to adjust the polls as I did than as they are released!

When will you realize. I don't lie about things. I am sometimes wrong.

[ChumpDumper]

My God, man!

I read somewhere -- I mean I saw someone say -- I mean --

My God, man! Why do insist on holding me to the slightest amount of accountability?

[clambake]

:lmao

[boutons_]

WC, you are a LIAR

[Wild Cobra]

My God, man!

I read somewhere -- I mean I saw someone say -- I mean --

My God, man! Why do insist on holding me to the slightest amount of accountability?

I don't have a photographic memory, nor do I take notes of everthing.

Think about it. When you look at the internals of a poll, how many democrats vs. republicans are they sampling? Stop being so hard headed and have an open mind. I don't recall which polster or which program I was listent=ing to. I have heard interviews with Rassmusen, Zogby, and others on various talk show programs.

I believe I'm right. I don't care if you believe me or not. Your attitude is rather childish I think. I told you what I can, and you expect more than I can deliver. Please grow up.

[Wild Cobra]

WC, you are a LIAR

Should I even respond to a moron calling me a liar?

Wow... you made me feel silly. Congragulatons.

[Buddy Holly]

I don't have a photographic memory, nor do I take notes of everthing.

Think about it. When you look at the internals of a poll, how many democrats vs. republicans are they sampling? Stop being so hard headed and have an open mind. I don't recall which polster or which program I was listent=ing to. I have heard interviews with Rassmusen, Zogby, and others on various talk show programs.

I believe I'm right. I don't care if you believe me or not. Your attitude is rather childish I think. I told you what I can, and you expect more than I can deliver. Please grow up.

Do you even actually know how they come up the percentages they do?

[Buddy Holly]

Should I even respond to a moron calling me a liar?

Wow... you made me feel silly. Congragulatons.

You call someone a moron and then precede to spell the word congratulations, well, like a moron.

[Oh, Gee!!]

Congragulatons are the inhabitants of the icy planet, Congrag. They are known for their inability to grasp completely made-up facts and statistics.

[Wild Cobra]

Do you even actually know how they come up the percentages they do?
I don't know the exact science, but they already try to take sampling errors into account. I'm saying they are not compensating right because they think there are so many more democrat voters than there are.

Thank-You ACORN!

[ChumpDumper]

From a Washington Times live chat with Mr. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute:

Question: How does the horrible over-registration of Democratic "voters" by ACORN affect the polls? Also, are poll respondents informed of NObama's ties to ACORN? by Santa Fe, NM

Answer: Actually, the questions about ACORN really do not make a difference in the polls. Our screen to figure out who is a likely voter asks about intention to vote rather than past voting history. I have no way of gauging how much voters know about ACORN or any ties that Sen. Obama may or may not have to the organization.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/livechat/2008/oct/10/quinnipiac-pollster-peter-brown/

I mean, I read somewhere that some dude said what WC thinks is bullshit.

[Buddy Holly]

Congragulatons are the inhabitants of the icy planet, Congrag. They are known for their inability to grasp completely made-up facts and statistics.

So, this is Wild Cobra?

http://www.digitaljournal.com/img/2/4/8/6/i/2/0/2/o/alien-monster.jpeg

[clambake]

....i just heard that polling is an exact science......

[Buddy Holly]

I don't know the exact science, but they already try to take sampling errors into account. I'm saying they are not compensating right because they think there are so many more democrat voters than there are.

Thank-You ACORN!

I can honestly bet 100 dollars you have no idea whatthefuckyouaretalkingabout.

[Oh, Gee!!]

So, this is Wild Cobra?

http://www.digitaljournal.com/img/2/4/8/6/i/2/0/2/o/alien-monster.jpeg

yes, Wild Cobra is a Bogulon. He is from the planet Bogus. The Bugulons' main exports are made-up facts and statistics. They are at war with the Congragulatons.

[Wild Cobra]

From a Washington Times live chat with Mr. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute:

Question: How does the horrible over-registration of Democratic "voters" by ACORN affect the polls? Also, are poll respondents informed of NObama's ties to ACORN? by Santa Fe, NM

Answer: Actually, the questions about ACORN really do not make a difference in the polls. Our screen to figure out who is a likely voter asks about intention to vote rather than past voting history. I have no way of gauging how much voters know about ACORN or any ties that Sen. Obama may or may not have to the organization.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/livechat/2008/oct/10/quinnipiac-pollster-peter-brown/

I mean, I read somewhere that some dude said what WC thinks is bullshit.
Non sequitur, the answer was not regarding the numbers in a manner that fits what I said.

[ChumpDumper]

Non sequitur, the answer was not regarding the numbers.
Actually, the questions about ACORN really do not make a difference in the polls

[Wild Cobra]

Actually, the questions about ACORN really do not make a difference in the polls

Right, the "Questions about ACORN." What about the different registration numbers because of ACORN?

[Buddy Holly]

Q: How does the horrible over-registration of Democratic "voters" by ACORN affect the polls?

A: Actually, the questions about ACORN really do not make a difference in the polls.

Moron say:



the answer was not regarding the numbers.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Actually, the questions about ACORN really do not make a difference in the polls
somebody is mad

[Wild Cobra]

somebody is mad
No Shit...

I own him again!

[ChumpDumper]

The question was how do ACORN's false registrations registration affect the polls.

The answer from the pollster was it doesn't.

Do you have a pollster who says it does?

[ChumpDumper]

I'm not mad, I just thought a bigger font might aid in comprehension.

[Buddy Holly]

For fucks sake Wild Cobra, please tell me you are not of legal age to vote.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

No Shit...

I own him again!
that or he just started at NAVH

[Wild Cobra]

The question was how do ACORN's false registrations registration affect the polls.

The answer from the pollster was it doesn't.

Do you have a pollster who says it does?
He squirmed out of the question. He did not answer "Numbers" but answered "Questions." He did like politicians do, answered a question not asked.

[ChumpDumper]

I await the link to a pollster explaining how ACORNS actions skew his/her polls.

[ChumpDumper]

He squirmed out of the question. He did not answer "Numbers" but andswered "Questions." He did like politicians do, answered a questuion not asked.He said ACORN does not affect the polls.

Where is your pollster who says it does?

[Buddy Holly]

He squirmed out of the question. He did not answer "Numbers" but andswered "Questions." He did like politicians do, answered a questuion not asked.

What do you think the "questuions" were that he was asked to "andswered"?

Ok, now really, you have to be putting on an act. Seriously.

[Wild Cobra]

I await the link to a pollster explaining how ACORNS actions skew his/her polls.

Then you can wait for Hell to freeze over, because I'm not wasting my time over this.

[Buddy Holly]

Then you can wait for Hell to freeze over, because I'm not wasting my time over this.

:lol

[ChumpDumper]

Then you can wait for Hell to freeze over, because I'm not wasting my time over this.Run away then, coward.

[Wild Cobra]

He said ACORN does not affect the polls.

Did I read that wrong? I thought he said the questions about ACORN don't change the polls. What questions about ACORN? I though we were dicussing registration numbers affecting the polls, not qustions about ACORN?

[Wild Cobra]

Run away then, coward.
You're just not worth the effort.

[ChumpDumper]

You just wasted your time with two more posts. Instead of explaining why you are running away like the coward you are, why not man up and actually back up your argument?

[ChumpDumper]

Look, as I understand it, ACORN flagged all these questionable registrations before they turned in the entire batch of registrations. They are forbidden by law to throw out these registrations themselves. Election officials, usually on the county level, then attempt to resolve the flagged registrations using government records. If it is not resolved, a provisional registration is allowed, which (if it is actually sent to a real address) requires the voter to produce an ID before voting.

Now if Wild Speculator or anyone else can tell me how these registrations end up being counted as "likely voters" in any polling scheme, I would love to read such an explanation.

Thanks in advance.

[MannyIsGod]

The way polls are currently sampled, you can take the democrat number and multiply by 0.906 and take the republican number and multiply by 1.106.

Todays RCP average for battleground states:

Obama McCain State
50.6 44.6 Colorado
48.8 45.5 Ohio
49.2 46.0 Florida
49.0 44.8 Nevada
48.8 45.8 Missouri
47.3 46.0 North Carolina
53.3 44.7 Virginia

With corrections:

45.8 49.3 Colorado
44.2 50.3 Ohio
44.6 50.9 Florida
44.4 49.5 Nevada
44.2 50.7 Missouri
42.9 50.9 North Carolina
48.3 49.4 Virginia

Now with the cheating going on in Ohio, it will still go to Obama. However, unless his numbers go to double digit leads, don't expect him to win those states. This still isn't counting the Bradley Effect (or whatever it's called.)

Heh.

Do all Democrats vote for Obama and do All Republicans vote for McCain? Are the weights off in each of these states by that ratio? Do you have any proof the Bradley Effect still exsists?

No. The answer to everyone of these questions is no.

First of all, Obama is getting more of the GOP's votes and more of the Independents votes than McCain. Therefore your attempt to reweight the polls is so mathematically stupid its funny.

Secondly, different states have different percentages of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. Your blanket weighting is retarded as hell.

Third, there is ample proof from the fucking primary election if nothing else that there is no bradley effect. In fact, you can almost be assured the polls are not measuring African American turnout are underestimating it just like in the primaries. The result? A REVERSE bradley effect where Obama out performs the polls.

Sorry to have interupted your bad points with facts.

[Wild Cobra]

You just wasted your time with two more posts. Instead of explaining why you are running away like the coward you are, why not man up and actually back up your argument?
First of all, in the professional environment I work in, I'm not accustom to people questioning my integrity. Second of all, with information overload in searches, I'm not going to try. I might be lucky and find it quickly, or it could take hours.

Like I said, You are not worth it. You are just a fucking jack-ass. I don't care if you, or anyone here believes me. We will see on Nov 4.

I find it rather beneath you to find a link that doesn't even support your argument. Was the best you could find to say I'm wrong, because that didn't do what you tried. If anything, it might support my point as the guy would have had to say what I'm saying if he actually answered the question as asked!

[ChumpDumper]

I'm not going to try.Brave Sir Robin ran away.

[Buddy Holly]

Heh.

Do all Democrats vote for Obama and do All Republicans vote for McCain? Are the weights off in each of these states by that ratio? Do you have any proof the Bradley Effect still exsists?

No. The answer to everyone of these questions is no.

First of all, Obama is getting more of the GOP's votes and more of the Independents votes than McCain. Therefore your attempt to reweight the polls is so mathematically stupid its funny.

Secondly, different states have different percentages of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. Your blanket weighting is retarded as hell.

Third, there is ample proof from the fucking primary election if nothing else that there is no bradley effect. In fact, you can almost be assured the polls are not measuring African American turnout are underestimating it just like in the primaries. The result? A REVERSE bradley effect where Obama out performs the polls.

Sorry to have interupted your bad points with facts.


Wild Cobra after reading that:

http://www.wright.edu/cola/Dept/eng/english_club/images/SadFace.jpg

[Wild Cobra]

Heh.

Do all Democrats vote for Obama and do All Republicans vote for McCain? Are the weights off in each of these states by that ratio? Do you have any proof the Bradley Effect still exsists?

No. The answer to everyone of these questions is no.

First of all, Obama is getting more of the GOP's votes and more of the Independents votes than McCain. Therefore your attempt to reweight the polls is so mathematically stupid its funny.

Secondly, different states have different percentages of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. Your blanket weighting is retarded as hell.

Third, there is ample proof from the fucking primary election if nothing else that there is no bradley effect. In fact, you can almost be assured the polls are not measuring African American turnout are underestimating it just like in the primaries. The result? A REVERSE bradley effect where Obama out performs the polls.

Sorry to have interupted your bad points with facts.
OK Chump. If you say so.

[ChumpDumper]

OK Chump. If you say so.Manny is way more knowledgeable about this stuff than I, and your thinking we are the same person is just more evidence that you have lost it.

[PixelPusher]

First of all, in the professional environment I work in, I'm not accustom to people questioning my integrity.

Integrity is proof of character, not an entitlement or perk that comes with a job. That you are offended that someone would question it is a result of mere vanity.

[ChumpDumper]

Professionals can support their assertions with facts.

[MannyIsGod]

OK Chump. If you say so.

I'm sorry for providing you with legitimate questions. I know you want to believe things are a certain way, but why bother making things up that aren't supported by facts? What will you say November 5?

Its no skin off my back if people like you continue to view these indicators as skewed in favor of Obama and its not skin off my back if you continue to make assertions that have absolutely no basis in reality.

Just realize that you can't spin the results on November 5 the way you try to skew these polls




If you take the election results and multiply them by 1.229480984 and 2.34343 you see that Obama actually lost

[RandomGuy]

Just realize that you can't spin the results on November 5 the way you try to skew these polls

You know he is going to cry a river and claim massive fraud on November 5th, I know he is going to cry a river and claim massive fraud on November 5th, he knows he is going to cry a river and claim massive fraud on November 5th and won't admit it, even people he agrees with knows he is going to do it, even if they don't admit it.

The whole thing is just a fig leaf for naked, ugly partisan lawsuits that will and attempting to disenfranchise as many Democrats as possible.

If I forgot to put my apartment number on a registration form, or accidentally transposed a digit or two in my address, and then had a fair mistake suddenly become "you can't vote, sorry", I would be pissed.

Republicans might gain some short-term gains by these lawsuits, but you can be damned certain that, if they actually won them, they would instantly be creating an army of highly-motivated people/volunteers dedicated to defeating Republicans, and turn off a LOT of independents.

After years of seeing the Dems shoot themselves in the foot, it is nice to see the Republicans doing the same thing.

Keep it up, assholes. :toast

[RandomGuy]

Professionals can support their assertions with facts.

That makes me want to link the thread where WC stated "teen pregnancy rates are higher today than they were 30 years ago, 'cause I know" and then have to explain the data I found from multiple sources that directly contradicts that statement, and why he couldn't/didn't find any data that backed him up. :nope

"but, but, but, but, but..." :rolleyes

[ChumpDumper]

If I walked in with my Flozell Adams registration card and was told "you can't vote, sorry.", I'd be pissed.

[RandomGuy]

Integrity is proof of character, not an entitlement or perk that comes with a job. That you are offended that someone would question it is a result of mere vanity.

:dramaquee

[Tully365]

The way polls are currently sampled, you can take the democrat number and multiply by 0.906 and take the republican number and multiply by 1.106.



I have a car for sale. The Blue book value is listed at $4,750. But if I multiply that figure by 1.748 to adjust for future fluctuations in automotive coeval dissipation variants, its true value is $8,303. Anyone interested?

[Findog]

Pollsters switch to likely voters at this point in the election. And the number of fradulent registrations is very low, so thanks for making a tiny Acorn molehill into a mountain. How do the pollsters get Daffy Duck and Mickey Mouse to express a preference for President?

[sook]

cobra has dick in his mouth

[Wild Cobra]

I have a car for sale. The Blue book value is listed at $4,750. But if I multiply that figure by 1.748 to adjust for future fluctuations in automotive coeval dissipation variants, its true value is $8,303. Anyone interested?
Maybe stupid people who bought houses before the bubble burst are. I wonder if they learned their lssons yet.

[Wild Cobra]

I'm sorry for providing you with legitimate questions. I know you want to believe things are a certain way, but why bother making things up that aren't supported by facts? What will you say November 5?

Its no skin off my back if people like you continue to view these indicators as skewed in favor of Obama and its not skin off my back if you continue to make assertions that have absolutely no basis in reality.

Just realize that you can't spin the results on November 5 the way you try to skew these polls

You answered your only question asked. What's the big deal. I stated one fact and stated in essence I extrapolated the rest. You guys are so foolish to say I'm wrong. Of course I could be. You guys are like the 5 year old who is just so amazed at a situation, that's all he talks about for weeks. Please grow up.

And yes, I already said we will find out in November. I trust my position, but yes. I am wrong at times.

[MannyIsGod]

You answered your only question asked. What's the big deal. I stated one fact and stated in essence I extrapolated the rest. You guys are so foolish to say I'm wrong. Of course I could be. You guys are like the 5 year old who is just so amazed at a situation, that's all he talks about for weeks. Please grow up.

And yes, I already said we will find out in November. I trust my position, but yes. I am wrong at times.

Its that your extrapolation is fundamentally flawed and you just ignore that.

Thats not extrapolation, that is wishful thinking. Indulge in it all you want, but if you do it on the message board prepare for it to be called out. Maybe when you get tired of people calling you out for that you'll stop doing it. Until then deal with it. If you want a place to simply air your views with no discussion then I propose you write a blog and turn off the comments but to complain that people call out your foolish methods when you post them on a discussion forum then I think you sound like a whiny baby who's upset that no one simply takes his word for it when he rants.

[Mr. Peabody]

They sure are, but not purposely. With so many new fraudulent democrat registrations, polling places are over sampling democrats. I read someplace that the poll takers are going by the numbers of registered voters, and that there are now so many more democrats than republicans. As a result, the polls are wrong. This will make the Obama campaign focus less on states they cannot afford to, and the reverse for republicans. This will probably help bring a republican majority in too!


So...the Republicans have the Democrats right where they want them? Have you shared this information with the McCain campaign? They appear to be conceding Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. You need to tell them about your super-fantastic corrections before they act out of haste without having the advantage of your keen insight.

Also, you need to let Congressional Republicans know that they will have a majority if they just stay in it. Florida Republicans are already deferring money for 2010. You need to tell them that they get to multiply their polls numbers and divide the Democratic poll numbers.

[Buddy Holly]

Anyone else think Wild Cobra is an act and by being an act he in essence is winning? No way someone could be this stupid on purpose for so long.

He's like the political Kill Bill.

[RandomGuy]

Well, we will see if I'm wrong in November, right?

Of course, when shit like this happens, and the Republicans are shown to be doing exactly what Democrats say they are, i.e. using this as a thin excuse deny minorities and poor people the right to vote because those people might not vote Republican, that won't backfire:



As if you needed any more evidence that the Republican effort to tout voter fraud is less about legitimate claims and more about a political agenda, consider this sequence of events:

Last week, as we noted at the time, the New Mexico GOP had publicly claimed that 28 people voted fraudulently in the Democratic primary, held in June, for a local race.

Then this morning, the RNC sent out a press release announcing a 3pm conference call with reporters "on the recent developments in New Mexico regarding ACORN."

But at 11am, ACORN -- the community organizing group that Republicans have been trying lately to turn into a voter fraud boogeyman -- held a conference call of its own, asserting that local election officials had confirmed that the 28 people in question, mostly low-income Latinos, were valid voters.
So here at TPMmuckraker, we wondered what the RNC's response to this would be. And on the 3pm call, we asked party spokesman Danny Diaz.

Diaz dodged the question. He talked about an incident with ACORN in Washington state, then referred us to an October 9th Wall Street Journal story, which did not address the allegation made last week by the state GOP about fraudulent voting in the Democratic primary. (Instead, it reported that the FBI had opened a preliminary investigation into thousands of fraudulent registration forms submitted in an area near an ACORN office.)

When we tried to follow up, Diaz cut us off and shifted the discussion toward a general attack on ACORN for submitting fraudulent registrations.

In other words, it looks like the RNC had scheduled a call to tout evidence of voter fraud -- not voter registration fraud, mind you, but actual voter fraud -- being perpetrated by ACORN in New Mexico. But when ACORN appeared to come up with compelling evidence that no such fraud had occurred, the RNC held the call anyway, simply shifting the focus to other vague allegations against ACORN -- then refused to address the New Mexico situation when asked.

[RandomGuy]

Because Republicans like to think Americans are too stupid to notice things like that.

Sorry Charlie. Just because this bullshit plays well with the party cool-aid afficianados, doesn't mean that the independents who really decide elections can't tell the difference.

That is why people like WC fail, and why the Republican party fails.

I might trust him to measure the moles of O2 in a given liter of atmosphere at sea level, but when it comes to anything that requires actual critical thinking or analysis, anybody but him can see that his confirmation bias consistently leads him to erroneous conclusions, and this thread is yet another example of that.

[RandomGuy]

Anyone else think Wild Cobra is an act and by being an act he in essence is winning? No way someone could be this stupid on purpose for so long.

He's like the political Kill Bill.

No. Unfortunately people like him and whottt have the same number of votes that I do. :depressed