Pennsylvania

[Nbadan]

Obama has a 10-14 point lead in most recent polls, so it is baffling to me why the McSame camp would give up on other battleground states it needs to win like New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio and Florida to put all its eggs in one ugly basket....are the Republicans planning on stealing Pennsylvania and the Presidency from Obama by using voter fraud?

[Anti.Hero]

I'm telling you dude. He/the repubs is/are throwing the election. Not in the sense they are losing on purpose, but this is why it isn't that competitive.

Think about it. They had 8 years of fun. Now they get to take 4-8 years off while the other side gets to clean up the mess (pile onto it) only so they can come back in 4-8 years later to save the day?

McCain is old enough/moderate enough(or whatever the hell he is at this point) to take the fall. The only thing keeping McCain camp going are the young republicans (hungry to move up the ladder) and the ones who didn't get in on the recent republican failure so it is just business as usual for them.

[Nbadan]

Is it giving up or playing a huge risk? I mean, without Colorado and New Mexico, McCain has to win every toss-up state that is left and steal Penn from Obama to win the election....

[TheMadHatter]

The Republican Party is in a heap of trouble for the forseeable future.

They are continually moving further to the right to appease the rabid social conservative base. This has turned off the intellectual conservatives and moderates and most importantly minorities. In the next few decades the minority population in this country is expected to skyrocket, already we are seeing states like NM and CO being decided by the large Hispanic vote. Part of the reason George Bush won reelection was because he was relatively popular amongst Hispanics and even blacks. If the Republican Party is interested in winning elections they are going to have to become a big tent party once again and that means kicking out the nutjob religious whackos and warhawks that are dominating the party right now.

Otherwise, get used to Democratic rule for quite some time.

[T Park]

They are continually moving further to the right to appease the rabid social conservative base

Wrong. They are moving further to the left.

[TheMadHatter]

Wrong. They are moving further to the left.

Fiscally to the left.
Social issues to the right.

I ask this question, what has become of the Republican Party? WTF good do they stand for anymore besides low taxes?

All I see out of this party is ignorance, racism, fear, pro-war, pro-corporate America, basically everything that is wrong with this country.

[T Park]

All I see out of this party is ignorance, racism, fear, pro-war, pro-corporate America, basically everything that is wrong with this country.


I wholeheartedly disagree, there is no racism being promoted or anything of that sort.

Again social issues they haven't moved from anything.

[T Park]

BTW

Someone shut John Murtha up please, calling his area "racists"

I seriously think hes gone senile.

[TheMadHatter]

I wholeheartedly disagree, there is no racism being promoted or anything of that sort.

Again social issues they haven't moved from anything.

You're a fucking idiot. Where have you been the past month?

It doesn't matter, your party is done. They are bankrupt of any good ideas and now must rely on racism, ignorance, fear, and lies to win an election. And thank goodness, they won't win that way.

[ChumpDumper]

....are the Republicans planning on stealing Pennsylvania and the Presidency from Obama by using voter fraud?Massive voter fraud!

Get it right.

[Findog]

I wholeheartedly disagree, there is no racism being promoted or anything of that sort.



:lmao

http://www.affordablehousinginstitute.org/blogs/us/Horse_with_blinders_small.jpg

[Wild Cobra]

I find it funny that I bring up the racist aspect of Pennsyvania and McCain winning that state and nobody seems to care until Murtha reinforces the idea.

[MannyIsGod]

I find it funny that I bring up the racist aspect of Pennsyvania and McCain winning that state and nobody seems to care until Murtha reinforces the idea.

You brought up the Bradley effect and said it would cost Obama the state. Murtha said there are racist areas in the state and that Obama would still carry it. Those are 2 clearly different statements and if you can't see why then I'm not sure what to tell you.

No one ever disputed there are racist voters in PA (or in every other state for that matter). What was disputed was your assertion that there is a bradley effect in that state that would cost Obama the election there. There is no proof that this exsists and you clearly acknowledged that you had absolutely no proof to back up your claim and were simply making it on a "gut feeling".

Even if I indulged your Bradley effect the race isn't close enough for it to matter in that state. Its a small effect of a couple of points at most, not a huge 10 point swing which is what McCain would need at this point in order to carry the state.

[Wild Cobra]

You brought up the Bradley effect and said it would cost Obama the state. Murtha said there are racist areas in the state and that Obama would still carry it. Those are 2 clearly different statements and if you can't see why then I'm not sure what to tell you.

I wasn't only factoring that in. You read too much into what I say:

I'm factoring in racism and black population in my guessing. Ohio has more blacks, and Pennsylvania has more Good 'ol Boys! (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2826989&postcount=1491)
I agree it will be a small factor however. I am confident they used bad polling to begin with there. The demographics of the state vary widely. He lost to Hillary there. Polling data is skewed to favor democrats. Democrats are over sampled in nearly all the polls, especially since ACORN registrations are making the real registration percentages skewed. Blacks are also often over sampled if you read any polls internals.



No one ever disputed there are racist voters in PA (or in every other state for that matter). What was disputed was your assertion that there is a bradley effect in that state that would cost Obama the election there. There is no proof that this exsists and you clearly acknowledged that you had absolutely no proof to back up your claim and were simply making it on a "gut feeling".

Again, that is not all I'm considering. It's a very weak factor compared to bad polling. Besides, the Good 'ol Boys are not going to say Obama and vote for McCain.

[MannyIsGod]

You're talking out of your ass. Pollsters don't get their Democrat numbers from official registration numbers, they get them from calling people and conducting surveys to get the information. So unless ACORN has managed to register fake people who are also answering phones, your point is moot. The reason these pollsters are factoring in larger numbers of Democrats is because there are large numbers of Democrats! No amount of you looking for reasons trying to make this not the case is going to make it happen. You're guilty of wishful thinking and finding information to fit your assumptions time and time again.

And there is no way pollsters are oversampling African Americans. I'd love for you to show me examples of polls where this is the case. On the contrary, I can show you how pollsters are using figures from 2004 and where they used these figures in the primaries and how Obama outperformed the polls because of this. Not only are you pulling things out of thin air you're pulling out things that are false and completely the opposite of the current situation regarding polls.

I can provide information to back up everything I've said, can you?

Also, even if I were once again to indulge your assertions, we can look at Zogby as a pollster who is using 2004 figures which are far more favorable to the GOP and we still see that Obama is winning and is winning by a substantial margin.

Whats sad is that you keep making assertions that are simply not true and even if they were true would still not prove the points you are trying to make.

[Jelly]

Obama has a 10-14 point lead in most recent polls, so it is baffling to me why the McSame camp would give up on other battleground states it needs to win like New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio and Florida to put all its eggs in one ugly basket....are the Republicans planning on stealing Pennsylvania and the Presidency from Obama by using voter fraud?

This is just more evidence of the foolish choices, poor strategy and unbelievably bad campaign McCain and the Republicans have run. All the more reason for them not to have another 4 years at running the country.

[Nbadan]

Speaking of open mouth, stick foot into mouth disease...


QnE-YJ---GI&

[Wild Cobra]

You're talking out of your ass. Pollsters don't get their Democrat numbers from official registration numbers, they get them from calling people and conducting surveys to get the information. So unless ACORN has managed to register fake people who are also answering phones, your point is moot. The reason these pollsters are factoring in larger numbers of Democrats is because there are large numbers of Democrats! No amount of you looking for reasons trying to make this not the case is going to make it happen. You're guilty of wishful thinking and finding information to fit your assumptions time and time again.

You talk out your ass, then accuse me?

Look:

Pollsters don't get their Democrat numbers from official registration numbers

The reason these pollsters are factoring in larger numbers of Democrats is because there are large numbers of Democrats!
OK, where do they get the numbers? More conservatives refuse to be polled or have the money not to be home or work when called by larger numbers. There are actually very close to the same numbers of democrat to republicans, so why do democrats get polled by about 8 to 10 points higher? Latest number I heard were they were both at 38%. Right or wrong, the split has been and still is approximately equal. I used 45% for each when I did an examination for an earlier ABC poll. The poll showed Obama winning, but had 38% democrats and 28% republican respondants. That coupled with how the others leaned, I extrapolated that McCain had the majority. Find that post and the link I used. Tell me I'm wrong after examining the internals.



And there is no way pollsters are oversampling African Americans. I'd love for you to show me examples of polls where this is the case.
Not true. They often over sample the black population intentionally, then adjust the numbers. Not because they want to skew the results, but because of the percentages and this election does deal with two races. If a poll only has about 1000 samples and a 10% black population, 100 samples doesn't give good results for accuracy. If they double the sample, then divide by 2, they get better results. Problem is, this is the first presidential election with a black candidate. It's next to impossible to accurately determine how many will vote. Historically, many stay home. Now if they think Obama will win, many of them will stay home like usual. Regardless, I simply believe the black turnout will be lower than expected. The pollsters figure they will vote in force. The ABC poll I linked the internals do explain something about black voters within it.



On the contrary, I can show you how pollsters are using figures from 2004 and where they used these figures in the primaries and how Obama outperformed the polls because of this. Not only are you pulling things out of thin air you're pulling out things that are false and completely the opposite of the current situation regarding polls.

Call it what you will. I call it an educated guess. I am doing nothing more than supporting my prediction in the other thread. Argue all you want. It doesn't matter. We will see in November.



I can provide information to back up everything I've said, can you?

You are just providing other peoples opinion. That doesn't make it fact. If it was fact, why do we even have the elections? If you mean how the pollsters did their job, remember, 2004 was different than 2008. More people see the media for what it is and refuse to participate in poll taking.



Also, even if I were once again to indulge your assertions, we can look at Zogby as a pollster who is using 2004 figures which are far more favorable to the GOP and we still see that Obama is winning and is winning by a substantial margin.

Whats sad is that you keep making assertions that are simply not true and even if they were true would still not prove the points you are trying to make.

Who cares?

[Ignignokt]

pew research says there is a 33 29 dem to rep demographic makeup in the us.

the over sampling in the survey is unreal, usually republicans have higher turnout.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm done trying to reason with those of you who want to try to poke holes in every poll that comes out unless it can be shown as favorable to McCain when even pollsters who have historically had leans torward the GOP show the same thing as every other pollster which is that Obama is kicking the shit out of McCain at the moment in every facet of this election.

But you bet your ass on November 5 - actually the night of November 4 because this shit is getting called by 7pm our time - I'm going to be making a fuck ton of I TOLD YOU SO posts.

[tp2021]

But you bet your ass on November 5 - actually the night of November 4 because this shit is getting called by 7pm our time - I'm going to be making a fuck ton of I TOLD YOU SO posts.

Don't count your Anti-Christs before they reveal themselves.

[Ignignokt]

I'm done trying to reason with those of you who want to try to poke holes in every poll that comes out unless it can be shown as favorable to McCain when even pollsters who have historically had leans torward the GOP show the same thing as every other pollster which is that Obama is kicking the shit out of McCain at the moment in every facet of this election.

But you bet your ass on November 5 - actually the night of November 4 because this shit is getting called by 7pm our time - I'm going to be making a fuck ton of I TOLD YOU SO posts.

I hope you pat yourself on the back. And for your sake, i hope it becomes true.

Because the former will only be really sad to watch. Infact i reccomend you watch the elections from a padded room just for safety.:lol

[Wild Cobra]

pew research says there is a 33 29 dem to rep demographic makeup in the us.

the over sampling in the survey is unreal, usually republicans have higher turnout.
Exactly, more turnout percentage wise. As far as I know, the 2004 turnout was 45% republican 45% democrat and 10% other.

Anyone have the real numbers?

[JoeChalupa]

I'm done trying to reason with those of you who want to try to poke holes in every poll that comes out unless it can be shown as favorable to McCain when even pollsters who have historically had leans torward the GOP show the same thing as every other pollster which is that Obama is kicking the shit out of McCain at the moment in every facet of this election.

But you bet your ass on November 5 - actually the night of November 4 because this shit is getting called by 7pm our time - I'm going to be making a fuck ton of I TOLD YOU SO posts.

I hear ya, I'm just not getting cocky as Obama has stated.

[ChumpDumper]

Wild Conjecture still doesn't know how polls work, eh?

[Wild Cobra]

You know Manny, Kerry only won Pennsylvania by 2.5% (144,248 votes) in 2004. That's easily flipped to red if there are enough people who relate to Joe the Plumber and racist democrats.

I might be wrong about Ohio. Maybe the cheating is stopped and McCain might win Ohio after all. President Bush won Ohio in 2004 by 2.11% (118,775 votes.) I expected enough cheating to give Obama the victory, plus the number of extra black voters who will likely vote there. The extra black voters alone cannot do it. Maybe with the three illegal voters recently caught, others will think twice.

I also wonder if there will be any Faithless Electors (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector) this year? In 2004, John Edwards received 1 electoral vote. I can see it happening on both sides because McCain is a super RINO and Obama, well, there are so many racist democrats. What if a record number of democrat electors vote for McCain? So many possibilities.

Oh, the numbers I found for 2004 were 37% republican, 37% democrat, and 26% other. Remember on the polls, they need to be adjusted for demographics and for likely voters. The polls not adjusted for likely voters are automatically off by 4% or more in favor of Obama.

[ChumpDumper]

Damn, WC's fail per word rate is off the charts.

[MannyIsGod]

You know Manny, Kerry only won Pennsylvania by 2.5% (144,248 votes) in 2004. That's easily flipped to red if there are enough people who relate to Joe the Plumber and racist democrats.

I might be wrong about Ohio. Maybe the cheating is stopped and McCain might win Ohio after all. President Bush won Ohio in 2004 by 2.11% (118,775 votes.) I expected enough cheating to give Obama the victory, plus the number of extra black voters who will likely vote there. The extra black voters alone cannot do it. Maybe with the three illegal voters recently caught, others will think twice.

I also wonder if there will be any Faithless Electors (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector) this year? In 2004, John Edwards received 1 electoral vote. I can see it happening on both sides because McCain is a super RINO and Obama, well, there are so many racist democrats. What if a record number of democrat electors vote for McCain? So many possibilities.

Oh, the numbers I found for 2004 were 37% republican, 37% democrat, and 26% other. Remember on the polls, they need to be adjusted for demographics and for likely voters. The polls not adjusted for likely voters are automatically off by 4% or more in favor of Obama.

:lmao

Ok.