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Findog
10-23-2008, 08:24 PM
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14891.html

With despair rising even among many of John McCain’s own advisors, influential Republicans inside and outside his campaign are engaged in an intense round of blame-casting and rear-covering—-much of it virtually conceding that an Election Day rout is likely.

A McCain interview published Thursday in the Washington Times sparked the latest and most nasty round of Washington finger-pointing, with senior GOP hands close to President Bush and top congressional aides denouncing the candidate for what they said was an unfocused message and poorly executed campaign.

McCain told the Times that the administration “let things get completely out of hand” through eight years of bad decisions about Iraq, global warming, and big spending.

The candidate’s strategists in recent days have become increasingly vocal in interviews and conference calls about what they call unfair news media coverage and Barack Obama’s wide financial advantage — both complaints laying down a post-election storyline for why their own efforts proved ineffectual.

These public comments offer a whiff of an increasingly acrid behind-the-scenes GOP meltdown—a blame game played out through not-for-attribution comments to reporters that operatives know will find their way into circulation.

Top Republican officials have let it be known they are distressed about McCain’s organization. Coordination between the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee, always uneven, is now nearly dysfunctional, with little high-level contact and intelligence-sharing between the two.

“There is no communication,” lamented one top Republican. “It drives you crazy.”

At his Northern Virginia headquarters, some McCain aides are already speaking of the campaign in the past tense. Morale, even among some of the heartiest and most loyal staffers, has plummeted. And many past and current McCain advisors are warring with each other over who led the candidate astray.

One well-connected Republican in the private sector was shocked to get calls and resumes in the past few days from what he said were senior McCain aides – a breach of custom for even the worst-off campaigns.

“It’s not an extraordinarily happy place to be right now,” said one senior McCain aide. “I’m not gonna lie. It’s just unfortunate.”

“If you really want to see what ‘going negative’ is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we’re starting to see,” said Mark McKinnon, the ad man who left the campaign after McCain wrapped up the GOP primary. “And there’s one common theme: Everyone who wasn’t part of the campaign could have done better.”

“The cake is baked,” agreed a former McCain strategist. “We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”

A circular firing squad is among the most familiar political rituals of a campaign when things aren’t going well. But it is rare for campaign aides to be so openly participating in it well before Election Day.

One current senior campaign official gave voice to this “Law of the Jungle” ethic, defending the campaign against second-guessers who say it was a mistake to throw away his experience message in an attempt to match Obama’s “change” mantra.

“Everybody agreed with the strategy,” said this official. “We were unlikely to be successful without being aggressive and taking risks.”

Running as a steady hand and basing a campaign on Obama’s sparse resume was a political loser, it was decided.

“The pollsters and the entire senior leadership of campaign believe that experience versus change was not a winning message and formulation, the same way it was no winning formula with Hillary Clinton.”

Beyond the obvious reputation-burnishing—much of it by professional operatives whose financial livelihoods depend on ensuring that they are not blamed for a bad campaign—there is a more substantive dimension. Barring a big McCain comeback, and a turnabout in numerous congressional races where the party is in trouble, the GOP is on the brink of a soul-searching debate about what to do to reclaim power. Much of that debate will hinge on appraisals of what McCain could have done differently.

That is why his criticisms of Bush hit such an exposed nerve Thursday. Was McCain hobbled by party label at a time when the incumbent president is so unpopular? Or did his uneven response to the financial rescue—and endorsement of such non-conservative ideas as a massive government purchase of homeowner mortgages—seal his fate?

Dan Schnur, a McCain communications advisor during his 2000 run and now a political analyst at the University of Southern California, said McCain should step in to halt the defeatism and self-serving leaks—an epidemic of incontinence—on his own team.

With despair rising even among many of John McCain’s own advisors, influential Republicans inside and outside his campaign are engaged in an intense round of blame-casting and rear-covering—-much of it virtually conceding that an Election Day rout is likely.

A McCain interview published Thursday in the Washington Times sparked the latest and most nasty round of Washington finger-pointing, with senior GOP hands close to President Bush and top congressional aides denouncing the candidate for what they said was an unfocused message and poorly executed campaign.

McCain told the Times that the administration “let things get completely out of hand” through eight years of bad decisions about Iraq, global warming, and big spending.

The candidate’s strategists in recent days have become increasingly vocal in interviews and conference calls about what they call unfair news media coverage and Barack Obama’s wide financial advantage — both complaints laying down a post-election storyline for why their own efforts proved ineffectual.

These public comments offer a whiff of an increasingly acrid behind-the-scenes GOP meltdown—a blame game played out through not-for-attribution comments to reporters that operatives know will find their way into circulation.

Top Republican officials have let it be known they are distressed about McCain’s organization. Coordination between the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee, always uneven, is now nearly dysfunctional, with little high-level contact and intelligence-sharing between the two.

“There is no communication,” lamented one top Republican. “It drives you crazy.”

At his Northern Virginia headquarters, some McCain aides are already speaking of the campaign in the past tense. Morale, even among some of the heartiest and most loyal staffers, has plummeted. And many past and current McCain advisors are warring with each other over who led the candidate astray.

One well-connected Republican in the private sector was shocked to get calls and resumes in the past few days from what he said were senior McCain aides – a breach of custom for even the worst-off campaigns.

“It’s not an extraordinarily happy place to be right now,” said one senior McCain aide. “I’m not gonna lie. It’s just unfortunate.”

“If you really want to see what ‘going negative’ is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we’re starting to see,” said Mark McKinnon, the ad man who left the campaign after McCain wrapped up the GOP primary. “And there’s one common theme: Everyone who wasn’t part of the campaign could have done better.”

“The cake is baked,” agreed a former McCain strategist. “We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”

A circular firing squad is among the most familiar political rituals of a campaign when things aren’t going well. But it is rare for campaign aides to be so openly participating in it well before Election Day.

One current senior campaign official gave voice to this “Law of the Jungle” ethic, defending the campaign against second-guessers who say it was a mistake to throw away his experience message in an attempt to match Obama’s “change” mantra.

“Everybody agreed with the strategy,” said this official. “We were unlikely to be successful without being aggressive and taking risks.”

Running as a steady hand and basing a campaign on Obama’s sparse resume was a political loser, it was decided.

“The pollsters and the entire senior leadership of campaign believe that experience versus change was not a winning message and formulation, the same way it was no winning formula with Hillary Clinton.”

Beyond the obvious reputation-burnishing—much of it by professional operatives whose financial livelihoods depend on ensuring that they are not blamed for a bad campaign—there is a more substantive dimension. Barring a big McCain comeback, and a turnabout in numerous congressional races where the party is in trouble, the GOP is on the brink of a soul-searching debate about what to do to reclaim power. Much of that debate will hinge on appraisals of what McCain could have done differently.

That is why his criticisms of Bush hit such an exposed nerve Thursday. Was McCain hobbled by party label at a time when the incumbent president is so unpopular? Or did his uneven response to the financial rescue—and endorsement of such non-conservative ideas as a massive government purchase of homeowner mortgages—seal his fate?

Dan Schnur, a McCain communications advisor during his 2000 run and now a political analyst at the University of Southern California, said McCain should step in to halt the defeatism and self-serving leaks—an epidemic of incontinence—on his own team.

“It’s a natural and human reaction when you’re struggling to make up ground, but that doesn’t make it right,” Schnur said. “As long as the campaign is still potentially winnable, these are an unnecessary distraction. This looks like it’s reached a point where the candidate has to step in himself and crack some heads to remind everyone why they came to work for him in the first place.”

Offered a chance to respond to the suggestion that the McCain campaign is awash in defeatism, a McCain official delivered a decidedly measured appraisal: “We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.”

Earlier this week, campaign manager Rick Davis complained to reporters in a conference call that reporters refuse to call out Obama for alleged shady fund-raising tactics, but in the process revealed no small amount of envy about the Democratic financial advantage. "Now, I'd love to have that $4 million right now to put into Pennsylvania,” he said. “It'd be a good thing for our campaign. I think it's a game-changer if I can slap all of that right on Philadelphia media market. It's an expensive place. And, yet, Barack Obama gets away with raising illegitimate money and spending it.”

A New York Times Sunday magazine piece chronicling McCain’s campaign featured numerous not-for-attribution McCain staffers participating in what amounted to a campaign autopsy. One aide told writer Robert Draper, “For better or worse our campaign has been fought from tactic to tactic,” and one criticized McCain’s debate performance.

Long-time McCain alter ego Mark Salter gave an interview to Atlantic writer Jeffrey Goldberg criticizing everything from the news media to the vagaries of fate: “Iraq was supposed to be the issue of the campaign. We assumed it was our biggest challenge. Funny how things work.”

Many conservative commentators likewise have been writing of McCain’s campaign in a valedictory tone. Among this group there is an emerging debate—one with the potential to last for a long time about the role of vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

One school—including syndicated columnist Kathleen Parker and Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal—called her a drag on the ticket and implicitly rebuked McCain’s judgment in picking her. Another school believes she is the future of the party, a view backed by Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard: “Whether they know it or not, Republicans have a huge stake in Palin. If, after the election, they let her slip into political obscurity, they’ll be making a huge mistake.”

In The Week, former Bush speechwriter David Frum wrote of McCain’s travails in a way that seemed to take defeat for granted and warned the GOP faces a long road back. “That’s not a failure of campaign tactics. It’s not even a failure of strategy. It’s a failure of the Republican Party and conservative movement to adapt to the times.”

While Frum was focused on the long view of history, many Republicans in Washington are much more in the moment—and much harsher in their denunciation of McCain and his team.

A senior Republican strategist, speaking with authority about the view of the party’s establishment, issued a wide-ranging critique of the McCain high command: “Lashing out at past Republican Congresses, … echoing your opponent's attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters.

“The fact is, when you’re the party standard-bearer, you have an obligation to fight to the finish,” this strategist continued. “I think they can still win. But if they don’t think that, they need to look at how Bob Dole finished out his campaign in 1996 and not try to take down as many Republicans with them as they can. Instead of campaigning in Electoral College states, Dole was campaigning in places he knew he didn’t have a chance to beat Clinton, but where he could energize key House and Senate races.”

A House Republican leadership aide in an e-mail was no more complimentary: “The staff has been remarkably undisciplined, too eager to point fingers, unable to craft any coherent long term strategy. The handling of Palin (not her performances, but her rollout and availability) has been nothing short of political malpractice. I understand the candidate might have other opinions and might be dictating some aspects of the campaign to staff – but the lack of discipline and ability to draft and stick to a coherent message is unreal. You have half of the campaign saying Ayers is a major issue, and then the candidate out there saying he doesn’t care about a washed up terrorist. You have McCain one day echoing Milton Friedman and the next day echoing FDR.”

timvp
10-23-2008, 08:42 PM
Awesome. I hope the current Republicans burn their party down to the ground so it can be rebuilt. I lean right on a lot of issues but the GOP is horrible right now.

MaryAnnKilledGinger
10-23-2008, 08:43 PM
chickens...hatching...stop counting!

Findog
10-23-2008, 08:48 PM
chickens...hatching...stop counting!

Yeah, this thread will get bumped by whottt if McCain somehow pulls this out.

He still has a slim chance to thread the needle, but he really only has one path to victory - retain all the Bush 2004 states sans Iowa and New Mexico.

Mr. Peabody
10-23-2008, 08:48 PM
I remember celebrating in 2004 when the election day exit polls predicted a Kerry victory and laughing at Rush's desperate assurances to the Republican faithful that the exit polls were wrong. Uhhh.....yeah.

baseline bum
10-23-2008, 08:50 PM
Awesome. I hope the current Republicans burn their party down to the ground so it can be rebuilt. I lean right on a lot of issues but the GOP is horrible right now.

I'm kind of scared they'll keep going the same direction with Palin as their new star. They just keep trying to appeal to the churches and the war-hawks.

Findog
10-23-2008, 08:50 PM
I remember celebrating in 2004 when the election day exit polls predicted a Kerry victory and laughing at Rush's desperate assurances to the Republican faithful that the exit polls were wrong. Uhhh.....yeah.

You know why the exit polls were wrong? Because Bush dominated in early voting and his voters weren't around to get exit polled. Obama is dominating in early voting and I'd be willing to bet McCain wins the day of voting on November 4th. Don't be surprised when whottt posts the breathless Drudge "exit poll exclusives" on November 4th showing a tight race.

That said, maybe I should've titled the thread "The fat lady is clearing her throat."

Mr. Peabody
10-23-2008, 08:54 PM
You know why the exit polls were wrong? Because Bush dominated in early voting and his voters weren't around to get exit polled.

Huh...That's an interesting explanation that I hadn't heard before. Did you read that somewhere or just see the numbers for early voting? I know a lot of people used Zogby exit polls as evidence of election fraud. But your theory would seem to explain the discrepancy.

Findog
10-23-2008, 08:57 PM
Huh...That's an interesting explanation that I hadn't heard before. Did you read that somewhere or just see the numbers for early voting? I know a lot of people used Zogby exit polls as evidence of election fraud. But your theory would seem to explain the discrepancy.

Zogby sucks. As much as I would like to believe that there was Diebold fraud in Ohio, the GOP used tactics like making sure there were 8-hour lines in black precincts to suppress the vote.

TheMadHatter
10-23-2008, 09:07 PM
It's not over until Nov. 4th when I see CNN declare this race over and Obama the next President of the United States.

I refuse to believe that this race is over. I absolutely refuse to accept that notion regardless of polling information. We all know what happened in '04, we got cocky and we fucking lost.

Findog
10-23-2008, 09:07 PM
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3050/2968423354_dc64bff338_o.png

TheMadHatter
10-23-2008, 09:10 PM
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3050/2968423354_dc64bff338_o.png

STOP!!!!

Please the last thing Obama needs is for his supporters to think the race is in the bag. I don't just want Obama to narrowly beat out McCain, I want to see a landslide. A mandate for Obama so that when he comes into office he will be able to effectively push through his agenda and get shit done on Day 1.

Findog
10-23-2008, 09:11 PM
It's not over until Nov. 4th when I see CNN declare this race over and Obama the next President of the United States.

I refuse to believe that this race is over. I absolutely refuse to accept that notion regardless of polling information. We all know what happened in '04, we got cocky and we fucking lost.

John Kerry never led in a single tracking poll from this point on. George W. Bush was never in this strong of a position. The general consensus is that he would win a close election and he did.

That said, McCain could still pull this out if he did this:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/mccains-best-op.html


There is no state by state way to break out of the campaign's current spiral. Trips to Iowa will not do it. McCain has to go global with a big closing message. So, why not...

Strip down the state by state media budget and use the money to follow Obama's lead with a prime-time 30 minute TV address? McCain direct to camera. And for God's sake don't make it another raging attack on Obama. Instead offer a mini mea culpa for the negative tone of the last three months. Then pitch the strong bipartisan sheriff of Washington argument. A non-tax and spend liberal plan to fix economy. Offer hope and leadership.

Follow this broadcast up with two more 30 minute prime-time shows over the final week; both should be town halls with McCain in the arena facing real voters asking him very tough questions, not softballs from local GOP plants. After the 30 minutes in prime-time, let each town hall show continue for another half hour live on the internet so interested viewers can watch even more and make a web donation to the RNC. Cut the schedule down -- sorry Waterloo, IA -- to give McCain significant time to really prepare for each show. And spend big bucks to bring in top Hollywood pros and first rate production values. Risky yes, but a big message move aimed at the entire country is the best option now.

Findog
10-23-2008, 09:11 PM
STOP!!!!

Please the last thing Obama needs is for his supporters to think the race is in the bag. I don't just want Obama to narrowly beat out McCain, I want to see a landslide. A mandate for Obama so that when he comes into office he will be able to effectively push through his agenda and get shit done on Day 1.

Obama supporters aren't complacent. I'm phonebanking this weekend.

Nbadan
10-23-2008, 09:11 PM
I completely agree...this is no time for apathy..ROCK THE VOTE!

timvp
10-23-2008, 09:11 PM
It's not over until Nov. 4th when I see Fox News begrudgingly declare this race over and Obama the next President of the United States.


Fixed. :toast

TheMadHatter
10-23-2008, 09:14 PM
Fixed. :toast

:lmao so true!

TheMadHatter
10-23-2008, 09:14 PM
Alright folks. Tune into TNT, Lakeshow baby!

Findog
10-23-2008, 09:15 PM
A perception that one side is going to lose is a double-edged sword: it can make Obama's supporters complacent, it can make McCain's supporters demoralized. Also, low-information voters that are still undecided like to go with the winner. I'd say Obama has an 85% chance of winning the election.

timvp
10-23-2008, 09:18 PM
This ish is over. I used to beat the "it's not over" drum but it's over now. Obama at worst held serve during the debates. He could have been the B carver and he'd still pull it out.

I'd say there's more chance Obama goes 425+ than McCain winning.

Tully365
10-23-2008, 09:18 PM
McCain is frantically looking for his Tracy McGrady to score 13 points in 35 seconds...

Findog
10-23-2008, 09:19 PM
McCain is frantically looking for his Tracy McGrady to score 13 points in 35 seconds...

ha, that's as good an analogy as any for what he needs.

MaryAnnKilledGinger
10-23-2008, 09:20 PM
Obama supporters aren't complacent. I'm phonebanking this weekend.

Do NOT stop at any ATMs.

Findog
10-23-2008, 09:22 PM
Do NOT stop at any ATMs.

I accidentally walked into a railing in the stairwell at work this week. It was bad enough that HR wanted me to go to the emergency room for liability purposes to make sure I didn't have a concussion. Left a bit of a bruise on my forehead. If I squint hard enough, it kinda looks likes a "McC"

Tully365
10-23-2008, 09:27 PM
I accidentally walked into a railing in the stairwell at work this week. It was bad enough that HR wanted me to go to the emergency room for liability purposes to make sure I didn't have a concussion. Left a bit of a bruise on my forehead. If I squint hard enough, it kinda looks likes a "McC"

So now the railings have gone over to McCain? This could be bad...

timvp
10-23-2008, 09:35 PM
I accidentally walked into a railing in the stairwell at work this week. It was bad enough that HR wanted me to go to the emergency room for liability purposes to make sure I didn't have a concussion. Left a bit of a bruise on my forehead. If I squint hard enough, it kinda looks likes a "McC"A McCain supporter would have done a much better job carving up a Obama girl.
















http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/535/mccaintatsu3.jpg

florige
10-23-2008, 10:31 PM
Alright folks. Tune into TNT, Lakeshow baby!



Lakers suck dude!!!


Anyway I'm not one to count my eggs before they hatch either, but in 04 this race was tight as shit. I mean if you go to www.electoralvote.com and check out the day in 04 in compared to today, even in the states Kerry did lead in like say FL, or OH, he was never ahead by much. I say if it's a week before the election and either candidate is only up by one or two points then you should consider that a toss-up in no ones column. Literally in the last week OH flipped like 4 or 5 different times between Kerry and Bush. If he did lead Bush it was by the skin of his teeth. Well within the margin or error.

whottt
10-23-2008, 11:45 PM
Just out of curiosity.....if America has suddenly gone socialist...how come the NYT and NBC are struggling so badly?

LnGrrrR
10-24-2008, 12:04 AM
Awesome. I hope the current Republicans burn their party down to the ground so it can be rebuilt. I lean right on a lot of issues but the GOP is horrible right now.

Hear hear. I don't fit into any one party neatly. The only reason I consider myself a Democrat now is because most of the Republican party are batshit crazy theocratic civil-right reducing spenders.

Findog
10-24-2008, 09:17 AM
This ish is over. I used to beat the "it's not over" drum but it's over now. Obama at worst held serve during the debates. He could have been the B carver and he'd still pull it out.

I'd say there's more chance Obama goes 425+ than McCain winning.

Tucker Carlson said on one of the talking head shows that everybody knows this is over, except for paranoid Democrats...and whottt, I guess.

JoeChalupa
10-24-2008, 09:43 AM
This race is FAR from over.

DarkReign
10-24-2008, 09:50 AM
Just out of curiosity.....if America has suddenly gone socialist...how come the NYT and NBC are struggling so badly?

Because I dont think the country is as liberal as you make it out to be.

I think Americans are stuck with two shit choices and theyre choosing the lesser of two evils.

What does it matter? Your Republican party is owned and operated by socialists, too, so does it really matter?

No true Republican would allow this bailout, or this new $180 billion dollar loan for auto companies....

These two parties, economically, arent different at all right now. Thats the real problem.

Theyre only different on social issues, I wouldnt even say theyre different on foreign policy either, save for Iraq.

There just isnt much difference.

JoeChalupa
10-24-2008, 10:01 AM
I concur with DarkReign.

101A
10-24-2008, 10:07 AM
Because I dont think the country is as liberal as you make it out to be.

I think Americans are stuck with two shit choices and theyre choosing the lesser of two evils.

What does it matter? Your Republican party is owned and operated by socialists, too, so does it really matter?

No true Republican would allow this bailout, or this new $180 billion dollar loan for auto companies....

These two parties, economically, arent different at all right now. Thats the real problem.

Theyre only different on social issues, I wouldnt even say theyre different on foreign policy either, save for Iraq.

There just isnt much difference.

Seriously, dude.

I've got two tickets to paradise.

romad_20
10-24-2008, 10:18 AM
http://www.rockeyez.com/interviews/eddie-money/top.jpg
Seriously, dude.

I've got two tickets to paradise.

Findog
10-24-2008, 09:25 PM
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/25/obamas_lead/

Oct. 25, 2008 | At the time of this writing, just past midnight in the opening minutes of Oct. 24 -- meaning a mere 11 days before the first votes in the 2008 presidential election will be cast in Dixville Notch, N.H. -- I am looking at the results of no fewer than 11 national polls. Barack Obama leads in every one.

Obama leads by a double-digit margin in five of the 11. With over 50 percent support in seven of the 11. At the same time state polls show his lead outside the margin of error in supposedly critical battleground states like Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico, and he has growing double-digit leads in such formerly competitive states as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

But because one of the 11 polls, the one performed by a survey company that touts itself as "America's most accurate pollster," shows only a 1-point Obama edge and another, from venerable Gallup, shows a slim 4-point margin among so-called likely voters, many Democrats are still nervous. Afraid that the polls with the wide margins are misleading; scared that the "Bradley Effect" will cause many more white votes for McCain and against Obama than the polls are registering. Worried that despite Obama's financial advantage, enthusiasm gap and vaunted field organization, the breakthrough young and minority vote will not materialize as promised.

Well, this Democratic pollster has three simple things to say:

1) The current Obama margin is real, has been present and generally growing for more than a month, and is predicated on three very firm foundations unlikely to change in the final 10 days of this campaign. First, a general negative mood about the country and the current administration. Second, the specific profound impact of the financial collapse and deepening recession, which has dominated this election since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in mid-September. And third the difference in candidate performance and persona, particularly in the three televised debates, that has led to the Democrat growing in stature and steadiness while his more experienced opponent has seemed increasingly risky and uncertain. While the margin could still fluctuate -- and perhaps there will be a snap-back from an "anti-coronation" effect -- i.e, undecided voters who realize Obama is about to be elected but don't want to add to his or the Democrats' margin of victory -- the dynamic of the overall situation is clear.

2) The likely voter model offered by Gallup is flawed. The Gallup organization itself seems to recognize this, since it is also reporting an "expanded" turnout model that has shown Obama running anywhere from 2 to 4 net points better than its "traditional" model. The flaw is simple: Gallup identifies "likely" voters by asking their previous voting history, meaning that if you are a first-time voter or you skipped voting in either 2000 or 2004, your preference is either not counted at all or weighted down. Needless to say this discounts the substantial numbers of new voters who have already participated in the 2008 primaries, have just registered to vote as part of record registration drives across America, or are planning to cast a vote on Nov. 4, spurred by a massive Democratic field organization. Many other pollsters are eschewing this rear-view mirror approach in favor of questions that ascertain respondents' current intentions to vote and their overall interest in the election. Obama performs better in their models.

3) There will always be outliers. The IBD-TIPP poll, the one that shows a 1-point margin, is published by Investor's Business Daily and is the product of a firm called the Technometrica Institute of Polling and Politics. The company's tag line, "America's most accurate pollster," derives in part from its claim to have had the most accurate record of all pollsters in 2004. But one indication of potential bias is the fact that among TIPP's current "hot topics" is the question "Are we ready for socialism?" You could argue that the liberal Web site Daily Kos is biased too, and discount its sponsored poll that shows a 10-point Obama lead -- except the Kos poll numbers resemble those in surveys conducted by traditional network powers ABC, NBC, CBS as well as C-SPAN/Reuters. Those all report double-digit Obama margins. Even a Fox News poll shows Obama leading by 9 points. That's got to hurt, though I suspect they (and Rush Limbaugh) are consoling themselves with thoughts of the ratings increases that will undoubtedly accompany their enhanced profile, post-Nov. 4, as the official megaphone of the opposition.

We can pick at many of these polls. They offer differing methodologies, differing interviewing techniques, differing sample sizes and composition. Yet there is actually great comfort in their diversity -- or disparity. A dozen national polls, and four or five times that many in key states, are near-unanimous as to the standing of this campaign. Given that they have arrived at those results by different means, and are not cookie-cutter products that are all missing the same truth, the American people should be confident about the emerging consensus they have reached.

Leave it to the Republicans to doubt the polls, to pin their hopes on the possibility that all these different survey firms have got it wrong. (Where is our modern-day Republican Cassius to opine that "The fault [my friends] is not in our polls/ But in ourselves"?) From my perspective, barring some unforeseen circumstance in the next 11 days, all that remains to be seen is the margin of victory, and whether, as these polls seem to be hinting, we're headed for a landslide.

Millennial_Messiah
05-23-2021, 07:37 PM
Awesome. I hope the current Republicans burn their party down to the ground so it can be rebuilt. I lean right on a lot of issues but the GOP is horrible right now.

And they did... and now it's the Trump GOP.


Be careful for what you wish for, tbh? :lol

Winehole23
05-23-2021, 07:59 PM
The current Republicans want to burn popular sovereignty to the ground in favor of permanent minority rule.

Anti-democratic to the bone.

Trainwreck2100
05-23-2021, 08:37 PM
Awesome. I hope the current Republicans burn their party down to the ground so it can be rebuilt. I lean right on a lot of issues but the GOP is horrible right now.


I'm kind of scared they'll keep going the same direction with Palin as their new star. They just keep trying to appeal to the churches and the war-hawks.
Timvp got monkey pawed

Millennial_Messiah
05-23-2021, 08:37 PM
The current Republicans want to burn popular sovereignty to the ground in favor of permanent minority rule.

Anti-democratic to the bone.
on my last drive, between Amarillo and Lubbock there's a stretch of nice interstate highway, and there's a sign facing southbound that says "TRUMP for KING". No joke.

baseline bum
05-23-2021, 08:45 PM
Timvp got monkey pawed

:lol monkey pawed

No one other than Gen X'ers are going to understand that reference

Winehole23
05-23-2021, 08:47 PM
on my last drive, between Amarillo and Lubbock there's a stretch of nice interstate highway, and there's a sign facing southbound that says "TRUMP for KING". No joke.I believe you.

Do you believe that shit?

Trainwreck2100
05-23-2021, 08:50 PM
:lol monkey pawed

No one other than Gen X'ers are going to understand that reference

It was on an episode of the Simpson's millenials would know it. How fucking old do you think i am

Winehole23
05-23-2021, 08:53 PM
It was on an episode of the Simpson's millenials would know it. How fucking old do you think i am


After eating too much Halloween candy, Homer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homer_Simpson), Lisa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Simpson) and Bart (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bart_Simpson) have nightmares.


In Lisa's nightmare, Homer buys a cursed monkey's paw that will grant its owner four wishes. While he, Bart and Lisa argue, Marge pleads with them to heed the vendor's warning and not use it at all. Despite her efforts, Maggie (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maggie_Simpson) is granted the first wish: a new pacifier (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacifier). Bart wishes for the Simpsons to be rich and famous, but the public soon tires of the family's antics and ubiquity. Horrified by the wasteful wishes, Lisa wishes for world peace, but aliens Kang and Kodos (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kang_and_Kodos) enslave the defenseless Earth. Determined to make a harmless wish, Homer demands a turkey sandwich, but the turkey is dry. With all the wishes used, he gives the paw to his neighbor Ned (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ned_Flanders), who wishes for the aliens to leave and transforms his home into a castle.


In Bart's nightmare, Springfield lives in fear of his omnipotent powers, including the ability to read minds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telepathy), magically move objects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychokinesis) and turn living things into grotesque forms. When Homer refuses to turn off a football game so Bart can watch The Krusty the Clown (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krusty_the_Clown) Show, Bart transports him to the football stadium in place of the ball for a field goal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_goal_(American_and_Canadian_football)) kick. As Homer creeps into the house trying to surprise him with a blow to the head, Bart transforms him into a jack-in-the-box (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack-in-the-box). After Dr. Marvin Monroe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recurring_The_Simpsons_characters#Dr._Marv in_Monroe) says Bart is desperate for attention from his father, Homer spends quality time with his son. Bart restores Homer's human form and they share a warm moment, causing Bart to wake up screaming.


In Homer's nightmare, he becomes a grave digger after Mr. Burns (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Burns) fires him for incompetence. While building a giant robotic laborer to replace human workers, Burns searches a graveyard for a human brain to implant in the robot. After mistaking Homer, asleep in an open grave, for a corpse because of his foul stench, he removes his brain and places it in the robot. Since Robo-Homer is just as incompetent as the old Homer, Burns declares the experiment a failure. After restoring the brain to Homer's body, Burns kicks the robot, which topples over and crushes him. Homer wakes from the nightmare to find Burns' head grafted on his shoulder. Homer tries to reassure himself that he is only dreaming, but Burns' head insists otherwise.

Millennial_Messiah
05-23-2021, 09:07 PM
I believe you.

Do you believe that shit?
Yeah, it's west Texas. Ruby red country. It's either that or a gun shop every 5-10 miles.

then again, in Cali you have a CBD/THC/weed shop every few blocks... equally annoying

spurraider21
05-23-2021, 09:16 PM
I only learned what monkey paw meant from the YouTube dragonball z parody series

DarrinS
05-23-2021, 09:34 PM
Bumping ancient takes

DarrinS
05-23-2021, 09:36 PM
The only upside of this bump, is that I see some former posters, who have wisely decided to stop posting here.

Winehole23
05-23-2021, 09:39 PM
The only upside of this bump, is that I see some former posters, who have wisely decided to stop posting here.You should follow their example, your contribution is puny.

DarrinS
05-23-2021, 09:45 PM
You should follow their example, your contribution is puny.

You're clearly more invested. Your "contributions" to political sub-forum of decaying NBA franchise are numerous, and pathetic.

I'll keep mine to a minimum.

Winehole23
05-23-2021, 09:51 PM
I'll keep mine to a minimum.Liar liar

baseline bum
05-23-2021, 09:54 PM
It was on an episode of the Simpson's millenials would know it. How fucking old do you think i am

Sorry, forgot millennial gen went back to births in the early 1980s and Simpsons was only good until 1998.

Millennial_Messiah
05-23-2021, 11:22 PM
Sorry, forgot millennial gen went back to births in the early 1980s and Simpsons was only good until 1998.

Not true. Only recently did the media embrace that idea. For most of my life millennials were born around 1992 and later and the generation from about 1979-1991 was Gen Y, separate and distinct from Millennials. Gen X being 1965-1979 with a big post-Vietnam boom, Gen Jones / Late Boomers being the in-between gen from around 1957-1964, and the majority of the baby boomers being born from 1945-1956.

Gen Z is around 2007 and later, so all of Gen Z is still in school imo

Trainwreck2100
05-23-2021, 11:29 PM
Not true. Only recently did the media embrace that idea. For most of my life millennials were born around 1992 and later and the generation from about 1979-1991 was Gen Y, separate and distinct from Millennials. Gen X being 1965-1979 with a big post-Vietnam boom, Gen Jones / Late Boomers being the in-between gen from around 1957-1964, and the majority of the baby boomers being born from 1945-1956.

Gen Z is around 2007 and later, so all of Gen Z is still in school imo

lol no Gen Y was Gen Y until they got rebranded into millenials

Millennial_Messiah
05-23-2021, 11:34 PM
lol no Gen Y was Gen Y until they got rebranded into millenials

millennials were always distinct from Gen Y even in official collegiate textbooks, up until around 2015-16ish the media decided to club them together

ElNono
05-23-2021, 11:36 PM
:lol monkey pawed

No one other than Gen X'ers are going to understand that reference

I'm Gen X, don't know what monkey pawned is, tbh

baseline bum
05-24-2021, 12:32 AM
I'm Gen X, don't know what monkey pawned is, tbh

It's from an episode of the Simpsons where they find a monkey paw that grants wishes but always grants a fucked up version of the wish. Back from when Simpsons was an amazing show and not the steaming turd it has been the last 23 years.

https://simpsons.fandom.com/wiki/Monkey%27s_Paw

Trainwreck2100
05-24-2021, 12:38 AM
It's from an episode of the Simpsons where they find a monkey paw that grants wishes but always grants a fucked up version of the wish. Back from when Simpsons was an amazing show and not the steaming turd it has been the last 23 years.

https://simpsons.fandom.com/wiki/Monkey%27s_Paw

actually that was a spoof of a twilight zone episode, so it's alot older

edit: the twilight zone episode was actually not where it originated, it's from 1902

Trainwreck2100
05-24-2021, 12:50 AM
I'm Gen X, don't know what monkey pawned is, tbh

it's basically a story based off the "be careful what you wish for because you just might get it" example in the twilight zone episode guy wishes to be a leader in great power that can't be voted out of office. So he's turned into hitler

ElNono
05-24-2021, 12:55 AM
thanks