Hedging your bets thread

[Findog]

I think Obama is going to win and I find it implausible that ALL of the major polling organizations are using flawed methodologies and are making errors in weighting the composition of the electorate. Certain pollsters have a Republican or a Democratic lean, but the consensus is that Obama has anywhere between 50-52% of the vote while McCain has anywhere from 43-46% of the vote. In addition, Obama has run a tight and disciplined campaign, whereas McCain has run an awful one. We're also beginning to see stories leaked from inside the McCain campaign detailing the infighting and finger-pointing. Those are the behaviors of campaigns that know they're going to lose.

That said, I find it puzzling that both campaigns are spending so much time in Pennsylvania when all of the polls give Obama a sizable and comfortable lead there. If I were McCain and I believed Pennsylvania were a waste of time, I would stop campaigning in any Kerry states and retreat to Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio. Obama needs at least one of those to win.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if McCain were to pull this off, but it would be by the skin of his teeth. I don't see how he can win in a landslide. McCain needs the remaining undecideds to break for him en masse. Who are these people that haven't made up their minds? What is keeping them on the fence? If this is a "change" election, and Obama is the candidate that most represents change, does their refusal to commit make them reluctant McCain voters? Will they not make up their minds until Election Day? I think if McCain does win, he doesn't pick up any Kerry states but manages to hang on to every Bush state minus Iowa and New Mexico.

If you read 538, the consensus emerges that Obama's ground game is much more robust and better-staffed than McCain's. There is an enthusiasm gap that would appear to favor the Democrats. For those who insist McCain is going to win this thing, what is your specific critiques of the polling methodology used by Rasmussen, Gallup, Research, etc?

[Findog]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15052_Page2.html

The pollster for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) predicted Monday that 130 million people – the highest percentage of eligible voters in American history – will turn out in this presidential election.

“Turn-out IS going to go through the roof,” McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, says in a strategy memo released to the press. “Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow.”

McInturff says he thinks traditionally Republican states are “MUCH more competitive than is generally believed by the media,” and says McCain’s salvation will come from “’Wal-Mart women” — women without a college degree, in households making under $60,000 a year.

The case McInturff makes is much more optimistic than anything detected by outside pollsters or analysts.

High turnout of motivated new voters has long been viewed by strategists for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) as his key to victory.

But McInturff maintains that the new record will not be disastrous for his candidate because all types of voters will surge, not just young people and African-Americans.

“I now believe turn-out will begin to approach levels not seen since other comparable presidential campaigns in 1960 and 1968,” McInturff wrote. “In today’s terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!”

That would be up from 122 million in 2004, a turnout rate of 60.7 percent of those eligible to vote. The Committee for the Study of the American Electorate said that was the highest turnout since 1968, when 61.9 percent of eligible voters turned out.

“There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turn-out,” McInturff continued.

“My own view … and our own weights in our surveys … reflect a belief that African American turn-out will be at historic levels, there will be a significant boost with voters 18 to 29 years old, yet the overall high level of turn-out will begin to mute the increase in the percentage these sub-groups represent in the overall electorate.”


McInturff, the lead pollster for McCain-Palin 2008 and a partner in Public Opinion Strategies, wrote to the “McCain Strategy Team” in a memo titled “State of the Race and Ballot Position”: “First, let’s be clear: This is a hard election to ‘predict.’

“The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turn-out, not witnessed in over 40 years.”

But McInturff asserted the McCain, lagging in polls nationally and in key states, “has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking.”

“The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with our numbers improving sharply,” he wrote. “The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied. ... [W]e are witnessing an impressive ‘pop’ with Independent voters.”

McInturff said these gains have come from “Non-college men,” “Rural voters, both men and women, “Right-to-life voters” and “soft Democrats.”


“[O]ur long identified target of ‘Walmart women’ – those women without a college degree in households under $60,000 a year in income are also swinging back solidly in our direction,” he wrote.

“It is not surprising we are witnessing this closing as we are finally having an opportunity to run a campaign that focuses on Senator Obama’s record on taxes and his lack of experience,” McInturff added.

“This has been the week where ‘Joe the Plumber’ has literally become a household name. … The campaign’s relentless focus has helped strengthen our margins on the issue of taxes and broadened as well to the attribute of handling the economy and jobs.”

As a sign of hope, McInturff added: “There is more elasticity in this campaign than is imagined.”

McInturff says he believes that “older, downscale, more rural, and … economically stressed” voters who “are quite negative about the direction of country and seek change … have significant hesitations about Senator Obama’s experience and judgment.”

“[I]t is my sense these voters WILL vote in this election and WILL break decisively in our direction,” he wrote.

“Senator Obama’s numbers are different than anything we have ever seen before among African Americans. In most polls, McCain is losing these African American voters by margins like 97% to 1%.”

“[T]his means the only undecided/refuse to respond voters are white and Latino,” McInturff said. “I am becoming increasingly persuaded it will be very difficult for Senator Obama to perform much above his percentage of the vote in a state. This puts any number of historically red states very much ‘in play’ and MUCH more competitive than is generally believed by the media.”

[romad_20]

“’Wal-Mart women”

:grim: So its come to this???

[MannyIsGod]

I'd be totally shocked if McCain won. No hedging needed.

[hater]

all I know is if mcain wins, the democrats all need to dismantle their party because this would be the most devastating and embarrasing defeat ever. Ever bigger than mavs losing to the Warriors.

I mean if you can't win after 8 years of Dubya and going vs. a mummy and sarah fucking palin?? :lmao

[Findog]

Or the Pats losing to the Giants.

[Das Texan]

if mccain won this thing, it would be the absolute biggest surprise,upset,whatever that i have ever seen in my 29 years.

[101A]

I LIVE in Pa - the ultimate battleground state; the state where McCain is betting the farm; the ranch, and his children.

My wife and I have each never voted for ANYONE but the Republican candidate; McCain did not get my vote because of his performance during the bailout; basically supporting it; and then not leveling with us about what this current crisis means for his campaign promises. By this same logic (and many other reason) Obama did not get my vote.

My wife hasn't voted yet, but yesterday did her own investigation; she WAS solid for McCain, but yesterday found out he left his first wife for a newer, less damaged model. Pissed her off. She won't vote for either of the major party candidates either, this year.

McCain is gonna lose PA by 8 - 12 points; with that loss goes the election.

[DarrinS]

Today's Rasmussen Poll numbers:

Obama 50%
McCain 47%

[Findog]

There's definite movement towards McCain in the national tracking polls. Obama is strong in the state polling though.

[AntiChrist]

There's definite movement towards McCain in the national tracking polls. Obama is strong in the state polling though.


I don't really put too much stock in the poll numbers.

[ElNono]

I don't really put too much stock in the poll numbers.

Is that you whottt?

[DarkReign]

all I know is if mcain wins, the democrats all need to dismantle their party because this would be the most devastating and embarrasing defeat ever. Ever bigger than mavs losing to the Warriors.

I mean if you can't win after 8 years of Dubya and going vs. a mummy and sarah fucking palin?? :lmao

:tu Couldnt agree more. If Obama loses this I am not entirely sure the Dems could recover.

[florige]

There's definite movement towards McCain in the national tracking polls. Obama is strong in the state polling though.



Because of the red state polling you think?

[Findog]

Because of the red state polling you think?

The posters in the 538 thread seem to think the internals are weird. Hey, if polls are valid when Obama is up, why discount them when it shows a result we don't like? Of course, the models predicted a slight tightening of the race.

Pew has Obama at +15 and Ras has it at +3. One of them is way fucking off. I'll settle for something in the middle.

[florige]

The posters in the 538 thread seem to think the internals are weird. Hey, if polls are valid when Obama is up, why discount them when it shows a result we don't like? Of course, the models predicted a slight tightening of the race.

Pew has Obama at +15 and Ras has it at +3. One of them is way fucking off. I'll settle for something in the middle.


I just find it weird that every election cycle the polls seem to "tighten" right before the actual election day with nothing major happening. The same thing happened during our gubernatorial election. The winner was leading by 10 points or more all the way up till election day, then all of the sudden on the night before election day the thing is "virtually" tied up....:rolleyes It just reeks of BS to me.... He still ended up winning by 9% anyway...

[Findog]

I just find it weird that every election cycle the polls seem to "tighten" right before the actual election day with nothing major happening. The same thing happened during our gubernatorial election. The winner was leading by 10 points or more all the way up till election day, then all of the sudden on the night before election day the thing is "virtually" tied up....:rolleyes It just reeks of BS to me.... He still ended up winning by 9% anyway...

Well, lapsed Republicans are probably coming home. My guess is Obama wins 52% to 47-48% in the popular vote.

[Drachen]

I just find it weird that every election cycle the polls seem to "tighten" right before the actual election day with nothing major happening. The same thing happened during our gubernatorial election. The winner was leading by 10 points or more all the way up till election day, then all of the sudden on the night before election day the thing is "virtually" tied up....:rolleyes It just reeks of BS to me.... He still ended up winning by 9% anyway...
Well, they were right, it did tighten up. :)

[florige]

Well, they were right, it did tighten up. :)


Yeah, but not to the point of being tied though. I was nervous as I don't know what that election night thinking it was going to be withing a point.....:lol