Official Obama Presidency prediction thread

[Spurminator]

Presidential campaigns are wrought with overly dramatic pessimism and optimism, and we've seen that in this forum. This is for you to make some specific predictions about Obama's Presidency in the 4 or 8 years he is in office.

Some of you think Obama will change Washington. Will he, and how?

Some of you have claimed we're on a fast track to socialism. What specific changes will occur during an Obama Presidency that will take us down that path?

Will the Dems gain or lose seats in 2010? It is likely that Obama's first two years will have an affect. Predict his success in the first two years and beyond.

Where will we be with regards to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc. in four years? Will we be in a better position with education and/or health care?

Predictions about Obama raising the dead, appointing members of the PLO to his cabinet or ushering in the End Times are also welcome. But this thread will be bumped in two or four years so be prepared to have your predictions revisited.

If any such predictions have been made in other threads (the more outlandish, the better) please repost them here.

[Spurminator]

The night my family business died, thanks to Senor Hope.

Thanks America.

There's one. T Park, be sure to keep us posted on how your business is affected by the new President.

[Oh, Gee!!]

that whottt won't leave like he said

[Spurminator]

we will be a weaker nation with him as President.


Obama received lots and lots and lots of money from Wall Street. and we are weaker for government dependance - and anticipated cuts in our military budget ( 25% rumored)

[Spurminator]

You got it wrong Manny. Fairness doctrine is on the stove right now,
front burner.

Pelosi, Reid and Obama want the right shut up. And they can do it with
this one bill. And it is one of their priorities. Just like Barney getting
things ready for the military cut. And the lefties will go for it.

Like Global warming is another their little pet projects. But first and
foremost, hang on to your wallet, the tax increases are going to come
shortly after they take office. All in the name of getting the government
back on it's feet. To hell with the citizens. Government "investments"
are the name of the game.

Always remember something. Part of the game plan is to throw something out to the media and see how the country reacts and right
now they are not getting any bad vibes about tax increases and
fairness act.

:depressed

[Viva Las Espuelas]

You got it wrong Manny. Fairness doctrine is on the stove right now,
front burner.

Pelosi, Reid and Obama want the right shut up. And they can do it with
this one bill. And it is one of their priorities. Just like Barney getting
things ready for the military cut. And the lefties will go for it.

Like Global warming is another their little pet projects. But first and
foremost, hang on to your wallet, the tax increases are going to come
shortly after they take office. All in the name of getting the government
back on it's feet. To hell with the citizens. Government "investments"
are the name of the game.

Always remember something. Part of the game plan is to throw something out to the media and see how the country reacts and right
now they are not getting any bad vibes about tax increases and
fairness act.

:depressed



Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday defended the so-called Fairness Doctrine in an interview on Fox News, saying, “I think we should all be fair and balanced, don’t you?”
Schumer’s comments echo other Democrats’ views on reviving the Fairness Doctrine, which would require radio stations to balance conservative hosts with liberal ones.
Asked if he is a supporter of telling radio stations what content they should have, Schumer used the fair and balanced line, claiming that critics of the Fairness Doctrine are being inconsistent.
“The very same people who don’t want the Fairness Doctrine want the FCC [Federal Communications Commission] to limit pornography on the air. I am for that… But you can’t say government hands off in one area to a commercial enterprise but you are allowed to intervene in another. That’s not consistent.”
political critique=pornography???

[Viva Las Espuelas]

the single most scariest sight in America.


http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20081105/capt.cps.ocu48.051108133344.photo01.photo.default-512x351.jpg?x=400&y=274&q=85&sig=FojyXbLT1xiRSmanPdzjFw--

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Americans and their wallets are going to need a giant jar of this to make it through all of Obama's socialist programs he crams down our throats.

http://www.fatcitytattoo.com/vaseline.jpg

[ElNono]

Americans and their wallets are going to need a giant jar of this to make it through all of Obama's socialist programs he crams down our throats.

http://www.fatcitytattoo.com/vaseline.jpg

It's all doom and gloom... ain't you glad you don't live in the US?... oh, wait...

[Viva Las Espuelas]

http://www.fatcitytattoo.com/vaseline.jpg
i don't think that will be needed. the tingling of the leg sure as hell has made it to the anus by now.

[Spurminator]

Americans and their wallets are going to need a giant jar of this to make it through all of Obama's socialist programs he crams down our throats.

Such as? Also, give specifics on how these programs will affect income, the economy, etc.

[baseline bum]

Americans and their wallets are going to need a giant jar of this to make it through all of Obama's socialist programs he crams down our throats.

http://www.fatcitytattoo.com/vaseline.jpg

Americans with fat wallets voted for Obama

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

[balli]

Yesssssssssssssssss! (we can)

http://blogs.courant.com/on_background/us_supreme_court_seal.png

[Spurminator]

It is going to be very interesting watching him now that he has to actually govern instead of just promising hope and change.

Reality is gonna be a bitch.

We will see just how much you guys like him within a year when he comes back and tells you:

* The deficit will be more than $1 trillion a year for several years
* The country needs a massive new fiscal stimulus
* The housing market will continue to decline through at least 2010
* Interest rates and taxes will eventually have to rise (after the economy stabilizes)
* Weak corporations have to be allowed to fail
* Millions of homeowners will lose their house
* Unemployment will probably rise to 10%
* The government simply cannot "bail the country out" -- not because it lacks the will, but because it lacks the power

Oh yeah...all those things I promised you in the election? woops. I lied.

[whottt]

Presidential campaigns are wrought with overly dramatic pessimism and optimism, and we've seen that in this forum. This is for you to make some specific predictions about Obama's Presidency in the 4 or 8 years he is in office.

Some of you think Obama will change Washington. Will he, and how?


It's going to be more corrupt and more easily influenced by outside elements than it ever has been before.





Some of you have claimed we're on a fast track to socialism. What specific changes will occur during an Obama Presidency that will take us down that path?

We are on the fast track...reguardless of what Obama actually does or doesn't...just the fact that he was elected proves we are on the fast track.

There is a full fledged socialist in congress...Joe Biden is a socialist.

Our congress is socialist.

The government is going to be running our lives and telling us how to live them to a heretofore unheard of degree.


As for the governments assuming control of many of our industries...there is a movement towards government control of industries, it's just not the American government.





Will the Dems gain or lose seats in 2010? It is likely that Obama's first two years will have an affect. Predict his success in the first two years and beyond.






Where will we be with regards to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc. in four years?

Iraq is pretty much over. The only point is do we leave when we want to or in agreement with the Iraqis.


Will we be in a better position with education and/or health care?

Depends on the type of education you are talking about...

As for the healthcare...I doubt much is going to change.




Predictions about Obama raising the dead, appointing members of the PLO to his cabinet or ushering in the End Times are also welcome. But this thread will be bumped in two or four years so be prepared to have your predictions revisited.

He's going to empower and legitimize dictatorial regimes world wide...he's going to be friends with them.


There aren't going to be any more bad guys...outside of Republicans and Christians of course...just misundersood revolutionaries that we should try harder to understand.



Oh..and I believe this government is definitely going to attempt to make drastic alterations to the second amendment.

[Purple & Gold]

whottt thinks the NBA CBA is more capitalist than socialist :lol :lol

[Nbadan]

I predict he will be the best President we have had in a long, long time, of course, right-wingers like yourself will likely disagree, but I also predicted that SA's Mayor, Hardberger, would win and be a pretty good mayor and thats turned out to be pretty accurate..


Yeah, I'm gonna have to go ahead and predict that Phil Hardberger will win a runoff for Mayor of SA. Castro's campaign has been too slimy and Schubert's campaign under-spoken, and I want a reformer in City Hall and not just a successor of the status quo.

Nbadan on Spurstalk in 2005 (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14053&page=2)

[Shastafarian]

It's going to be more corrupt and more easily influenced by outside elements than it ever has been before.




We are on the fast track...reguardless of what Obama actually does or doesn't...just the fact that he was elected proves we are on the fast track.

There is a full fledged socialist in congress...Joe Biden is a socialist.

Our congress is socialist.

The government is going to be running our lives and telling us how to live them to a heretofore unheard of degree.


As for the governments assuming control of many of our industries...there is a movement towards government control of industries, it's just not the American government.










Iraq is pretty much over. The only point is do we leave when we want to or in agreement with the Iraqis.



Depends on the type of education you are talking about...

As for the healthcare...I doubt much is going to change.




He's going to empower and legitimize dictatorial regimes world wide...he's going to be friends with them.


There aren't going to be any more bad guys...outside of Republicans and Christians of course...just misundersood revolutionaries that we should try harder to understand.



Oh..and I believe this government is definitely going to attempt to make drastic alterations to the second amendment.

You sure you wanna be making predictions after your great success predicting the election?

[Nbadan]

whottt thinks the NBA CBA is more capitalist than socialist :lol :lol

Whottt doesn't know what a socialist is - Proof: he thinks the Nazi were socialist - how someone who got the 08 election so wrong can have any cred here is besides me...

[Purple & Gold]

Whottt doesn't know what a socialist is - Proof: he thinks the Nazi were socialist - how someone who got the 08 election so wrong can have any cred here is besides me...

He doesn't. Most of the time I just pass over whottt heavy threads :lol

[Warlord23]

whottt making predictions? Yeah, this will end well ... :rollin

[whottt]

You sure you wanna be making predictions after your great success predicting the election?

Of course...look it was a pretty bad miss, but it's still just one miss...I'm 4-2 now and that's still better than most people I know.

Most of the people talking shit now got fucking owned badly in 2004....for instance Nbadan. Did they shut up? No...


The way I look at it...even if I was wrong about the election, I'm not wrong about Obama.

I mean I expected W to lose in a landslide in 2000, he didn't, but that doesn't mean I was wrong about how shitty of a President he was going to be....

Sometimes the American people fuck up...this was a worse fuck up than 2000 though...although without that fuck up this fuck up likely wouldn't have happened.



The question now is will the Republicans respond as the Democrats did by becoming shittier than the Republicans? If they do..who knows, I might wind up voting for Obama in 2012.

[whottt]

Whottt doesn't know what a socialist is - Proof: he thinks the Nazi were socialist -

Damn dude...there were tons of socialist elements in the Nazi movement.





how someone who got the 08 election so wrong can have any cred here is besides me...


I don't really give a shit if I have cred or not...it's not like this forum is full people whose opinions I respect...I don't care if their guy just won the election.

[RC's Boss]

[QUOTE=whottt;2877758]It's going to be more corrupt and more easily influenced by outside elements than it ever has been before.




You mean it's gonna be more corrupt than our INSIDE elements in the outgoing administration:depressed..... Oh MY!

[TDMVPDPOY]

obama ran the same campaign and policys australias new PM kevin rudd ran...that was more family and economy policys, didnt talk much about the war besides pulling troops out. both inherited the job at the wrong time expecially the depression in the economy...just look at the smear campaigns the opposing parties will run to blame them for the incompotency to solve problems...

[101A]

The campaign that, at least for the ENTIRE stretch run, was almost exclusively about domestic issues; will ultimately lead to a presidency dominated by foreign policy ones.

Just a prediction.

[I Love Me Some Me]

When is he going to die on a cross to save us?

[MannyIsGod]

I think early on you can expect to see some key legislation. You're probably going to see a push very quickly to move toward greener energy and I think you'll see legislation that pushes this forward.

Probably the first big thing they'll do is try to get a federa program in place to repair our countries infrastructure. This is an excellent way to create jobs and the fact of the matter is that we severely need to do this. I don't see how anyone will oppose this if they truly want to work in a unified manner so I guess this will be a key test on how the GOP plans to deal with Obama early on.

I think you'll also see Guantanamo Bay closed. You'll see a move away from torture in any form and you'll likely see some intelligence reform as well.

But in the end priority number one is the economy and that will dominate his early first term unless we're attacked in a huge manner. Thats why I think you'll see a large infrastructure plan and/or a green energy plan as well since both can address large issues while creating economic stimulus.

[Kamnik]

I do not think McCain can envy the job too much...

Obama will have to face hude problems imidiately:

-world economic crysis

-certain job loss in the US

-huge expectations from his voters

-a world that Bush managed to turn against the US in the last 8 years... especially muslim radicals

-I think a really hard job is what to do with Pakistan... while situations in Afganistan and Iraq are messed up already

-Can he aford to ignore some of the conflicts in Africa while civilians are slaughtered daily?

-etc... Hard, hard work for Obama....

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

As for the governments assuming control of many of our industries...there is a movement towards government control of industries, it's just not the American government.

Please show me the evidence for this. Corporate power has been increasing worldwide for decades to the point that 51 of the 100 biggest economic entities in the world are CORPORATIONS, not nations. In truth, corporations control the world to a larger extent than governments, but they act only in the shareholder's interests, not the people's. I'd prefer a world with stronger regulation, rather than the toothless tigers we have now.


I do not think McCain can envy the job too much...

Obama will have to face hude problems imidiately:

-world economic crysis

-certain job loss in the US

-huge expectations from his voters

-a world that Bush managed to turn against the US in the last 8 years... especially muslim radicals

-I think a really hard job is what to do with Pakistan... while situations in Afganistan and Iraq are messed up already

-Can he aford to ignore some of the conflicts in Africa while civilians are slaughtered daily?

-etc... Hard, hard work for Obama....

I agree that this presidency is definitely a poisoned chalice - good luck Mr Obama, you will need it.

[101A]

-a world that Bush managed to turn against the US in the last 8 years... especially muslim radicals


The World didn't turn against us, it turned against Bush.

That is already resolved.

Now the stark realization that it wasn't all his fault will be sobering - although he can get blamed for it for a good 4 - 6 years.

[RandomGuy]

It's going to be more corrupt and more easily influenced by outside elements than it ever has been before.




We are on the fast track...reguardless of what Obama actually does or doesn't...just the fact that he was elected proves we are on the fast track.

There is a full fledged socialist in congress...Joe Biden is a socialist.

Our congress is socialist.

The government is going to be running our lives and telling us how to live them to a heretofore unheard of degree.


As for the governments assuming control of many of our industries...there is a movement towards government control of industries, it's just not the American government.










Iraq is pretty much over. The only point is do we leave when we want to or in agreement with the Iraqis.



Depends on the type of education you are talking about...

As for the healthcare...I doubt much is going to change.




He's going to empower and legitimize dictatorial regimes world wide...he's going to be friends with them.


There aren't going to be any more bad guys...outside of Republicans and Christians of course...just misundersood revolutionaries that we should try harder to understand.



Oh..and I believe this government is definitely going to attempt to make drastic alterations to the second amendment.

I'm quoting this, just in case the poster tries to edit it at a later date...

[101A]

I'm quoting this, just in case the poster tries to edit it at a later date...

:rollin

[RandomGuy]

[I predicted that Bush would be a shitty president].

http://www.trephination.net/gallery/macros/obvious.jpg


Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back about that one... :lmao

[RandomGuy]

The World didn't turn against us, it turned against Bush.

That is already resolved.

Now the stark realization that it wasn't all his fault will be sobering - although he can get blamed for it for a good 4 - 6 years.

It will be funny to see Democrats doing the same thing to Bush that Republicans have done to Clinton. There are still people blaming Clinton for things that are happening today. :rolleyes

Both sides have their punching bags/scapegoats now.

Give it another 10 years or so to really see how it pans out.

[boutons_]

"all those things I promised you in the election"

Obama has repeatedly spoken about the challenges of the immense problems dubya has bequeathed. Where has Obama promised us a Rose Garden? His time scale is years, even beyond one term.

Many Americans are as dumb and ignorant as a bag of hammers, but some Americans realize that no matter who won the election, the domestic and international problme are immense and complex. They voted for Obama's very difficult way forward, and blocked McSame's way backward.

[doobs]

This is what I see happening:

(1) Obama and Congress will raise taxes on the rich, as promised;
(2) The economy will rebound as it always does, albeit somewhat more slowly due to Obama's tax policy;
(3) The next two years will be rough on the domestic front, due to economic sluggishness and the proposed nationalization of healthcare, and the Republicans will make significant congressional gains in 2010;
(4) After the economy recovers, a combination of the Obama tax hike and congressional Republican resistance to new spending will lead us to something nearing a balanced budget;
(5) Iraq will sufficiently stabilize in time for Obama to withdraw troops within 16 months;
(6) Obama will renege on his promise to revisit trade agreements--I hope;
(7) America's foreign policy will be largely non-interventionist, despite what Obama has said about Pakistan--this guy just wants to talk, it seems; and
(8) Obama will likely win re-election, unless the Republicans get their shit together.

[RandomGuy]

In truth, corporations control the world to a larger extent than governments, but they act only in the shareholder's interests, not the people's.

Actually, given the weak corporate governance provided by most corporate boards, there is a VERY good argument for the assertion that "corporations act only in management's interests".

A good part of the time, management's interests coincide with that of the shareholders, but make no mistake, $100,000,000 golden parachutes don't tend to enrich shareholders.

I would put forth the studies of CEO pay that show either no correlation, or a NEGATIVE correlantion to corporate performance.

http://www.ethicalcorp.com/content.asp?ContentID=3616

Some of this seems to be changing, with greater percentages of CEO pay actually linked to performance of the stock, but still...

http://www.mercer.com/print.htm?indContentType=100&idContent=1263210&indBodyType=D&reference=

[101A]

"all those things I promised you in the election"

Obama has repeatedly spoken about the challenges of the immense problems dubya has bequeathed. Where has Obama promised us a Rose Garden? His time scale is years, even beyond one term.


I find this sentence ironic.

Bush promised, when he ran for his second term, to stay in Iraq no matter how long it took. He did.

He promised to try to privatize a part of Social Security. He did; it was rejected.

He promised to keep his tax cuts in place. He did.

He kept his promises; even when they became EXTREMELY unpopular. I thought that's what we wanted in a President. If Obama knows what's good for him, he'll take a page out of Clinton's book, put his finger in the wind every few days, fuck his promises, and move his positions around at eh whim of the (as you describe them) stupid American population.

[RandomGuy]

This is what I see happening:

(1) Obama and Congress will raise taxes on the rich, as promised;
(2) The economy will rebound as it always does, albeit somewhat more slowly due to Obama's tax policy;
(3) The next two years will be rough on the domestic front, due to economic sluggishness and the proposed nationalization of healthcare, and the Republicans will make significant congressional gains in 2010;
(4) After the economy recovers, a combination of the Obama tax hike and congressional Republican resistance to new spending will lead us to something nearing a balanced budget;
(5) Iraq will sufficiently stabilize in time for Obama to withdraw troops within 16 months;
(6) Obama will renege on his promise to revisit trade agreements--I hope;
(7) America's foreign policy will be largely non-interventionist, despite what Obama has said about Pakistan--this guy just wants to talk, it seems; and
(8) Obama will likely win re-election, unless the Republicans get their shit together.

I mostly agree with this.

Further:
The massive deficits we have been running have simply been pushing necessary tax hikes down the road. Every deficit can be seen as simply a future tax increase. The only good thing about the current climate it that it lowers the cost of US government borrowing.

Hopefully by the time raising capital gets more expensive, we won't need to do it as much.

[101A]

This is what I see happening:

(1) Obama and Congress will raise taxes on the rich, as promised;
(2) The economy will rebound as it always does, albeit somewhat more slowly due to Obama's tax policy;
(3) The next two years will be rough on the domestic front, due to economic sluggishness and the proposed nationalization of healthcare, and the Republicans will make significant congressional gains in 2010;
(4) After the economy recovers, a combination of the Obama tax hike and congressional Republican resistance to new spending will lead us to something nearing a balanced budget;
(5) Iraq will sufficiently stabilize in time for Obama to withdraw troops within 16 months;
(6) Obama will renege on his promise to revisit trade agreements--I hope;
(7) America's foreign policy will be largely non-interventionist, despite what Obama has said about Pakistan--this guy just wants to talk, it seems; and
(8) Obama will likely win re-election, unless the Republicans get their shit together.

Very likely scenario - although a couple of things could screw things up:

Democrats use the nuclear option in the Senate to pass sweeping progressive legislation before they have a chance of slipping in two years.

OR

We are hit by a serious terrorist attack - then, as with 9/11, - EVERYTHING changes.

[RandomGuy]

I think early on you can expect to see some key legislation. You're probably going to see a push very quickly to move toward greener energy and I think you'll see legislation that pushes this forward.

Probably the first big thing they'll do is try to get a federa program in place to repair our countries infrastructure. This is an excellent way to create jobs and the fact of the matter is that we severely need to do this. I don't see how anyone will oppose this if they truly want to work in a unified manner so I guess this will be a key test on how the GOP plans to deal with Obama early on.

I think you'll also see Guantanamo Bay closed. You'll see a move away from torture in any form and you'll likely see some intelligence reform as well.

But in the end priority number one is the economy and that will dominate his early first term unless we're attacked in a huge manner. Thats why I think you'll see a large infrastructure plan and/or a green energy plan as well since both can address large issues while creating economic stimulus.

There you go, that is pretty much what I would predict as well.

The goodwill garnered from the election will fade more or less quickly depending on how much he deviates from the more unpopular Bush policies, like Gitmo.

I predict that we WILL see greater NATO participation in Afghanistan. It will be VERY hard for the Europeans, who found it easy to decline requests for troops from Bush, to do the same to Obama.

I predict a continuation of one of Bush's best foreign policy successes: Africa. (yes, you read that correctly, Bush did something competent and good) I would really like to see that Obama or his advisors sit down with the Gates Foundation to do some coordination of development aid.

I predict that the R & D spent on green energy, and the smarter, less ideologically based economic stimulus will have a fair effect on the economy, to a degree that will surprise a lot of people.

Extending unemployment benefits will happen.

For a look into future likely Obama policies, one should visit this website:

http://www.epi.org/

It is one of the best "progressive" economic think tanks, and is likely to prove to be very influencial in formulating Obama economic policy.

I would also predict that the ultimate cost of the bailout will prove to be smaller than one might think, as the Government sells the stakes it will be buying in flagging companies in a few years.

Despite what a lot of hysterical right-wingers seem to think, US government investments in these companies will end, probably during the last year or so of Obama's probable first term. The bugaboo of "socialism" will be proven to be what everybody with any common sense knew it was: hyperbole.

[RandomGuy]

Very likely scenario - although a couple of things could screw things up:

Democrats use the nuclear option in the Senate to pass sweeping progressive legislation before they have a chance of slipping in two years.

OR

We are hit by a serious terrorist attack - then, as with 9/11, - EVERYTHING changes.

I sincerely hope the Dems aren't stupid enough to use the nuclear option of eliminating the filibuster.

That would be a mistake of epic proportions.

There will be a fair chance of a terrorist attack in the next 8 years, as the revitalization of the Al Qaeda movement/ideology that Bush's fuck-ups have provided start bearing fruit. Make no mistake, Gitmo and Abu Gharaib have had a huge effect on the ability of these nutters to make the case that we are as evil as they say we are.

[101A]

Probably the first big thing they'll do is try to get a federa program in place to repair our countries infrastructure. This is an excellent way to create jobs and the fact of the matter is that we severely need to do this. I don't see how anyone will oppose this if they truly want to work in a unified manner so I guess this will be a key test on how the GOP plans to deal with Obama early on.

I saw an interview on this last night - I was half asleep, sorry I can'r cite it; must have been PBS.

Anyway, regarding infrastructure, they said the reason Congressman don't pass large spending bills for it, is because they can't go to the ribbon cutting, or have their name put on it.

Seriously. It's vanity and/or taking credit for new building. They can't sell "maintaining infrastructure" as a major accomplishment; and with so little money left after entitlements, defense and interest, well - gonna do what helps daddy get reelected, aren't we.

Hope you're right, though.

[101A]

I sincerely hope the Dems aren't stupid enough to use the nuclear option of eliminating the filibuster.

That would be a mistake of epic proportions.

I'm happy the Republicans didn't set the precedent. Thank you gang of 14.


There will be a fair chance of a terrorist attack in the next 8 years, as the revitalization of the Al Qaeda movement/ideology that Bush's fuck-ups have provided start bearing fruit. Make no mistake, Gitmo and Abu Gharaib have had a huge effect on the ability of these nutters to make the case that we are as evil as they say we are.
I don't think it'll be Al Queda - they're too busy hiding from Predators - and if Obama "surges" Afghanistan, they'll have there hands full.

I'm thinking the Shia wanna get on the scoreboard.

As for Gitmo; I've got a hunch liberals are gonna be disappointed in the results there. I bet it stays open for business.

[RandomGuy]

That said, a more saavy Obama administration will FINALLY start making use of our best weapons in the war on terror.

Military force, although necessary, is NOT sufficient to win the war against the Al Qaeda ideology.

You can't win a war of ideas with bullets.

The US will make good use of soft power, and moral authority to really hack away at the base of Al Qaeda's strength, i.e. the ability to say "look how evil and imperial they are", and have that be plausible to the multitudes of the developing world with limited or no access to wider global media.

Building schools, roads, and providing something as simple as electricity and fresh water will go a long way towards undermining the chief claims of the muslim nutters of Al Qaeda.

[RandomGuy]

As for Gitmo; I've got a hunch liberals are gonna be disappointed in the results there. I bet it stays open for business.

It will be a hard knot to untangle and will take the better part of a 2 years to close down.

Liberals who want it closed down immediately will be disappointed, but it is such a PR disaster that any sane progessive foreign policy advisor will make the calculation, a correct one in my view, that shutting it down is better in the long run than keeping it open, and Obama is likely to agree with that.

[101A]

That said, a more saavy Obama administration will FINALLY start making use of our best weapons in the war on terror.

Military force, although necessary, is NOT sufficient to win the war against the Al Qaeda ideology.

You can't win a war of ideas with bullets.

The US will make good use of soft power, and moral authority to really hack away at the base of Al Qaeda's strength, i.e. the ability to say "look how evil and imperial they are", and have that be plausible to the multitudes of the developing world with limited or no access to wider global media.[quote]

I don't know....Obama's first pick in his cabinet his "Chief of Staff" is a Jew. "They're" gonna make a HUGE deal out of that.

[quote]Building schools, roads, and providing something as simple as electricity and fresh water will go a long way towards undermining the chief claims of the muslim nutters of Al Qaeda.

We've done all of that in Afghanistan - as far as I can tell, hasn't helped. (of course we've also stopped the beheading of women and gays and that didn't endear Bush to those factions in this country AT ALL)

[101A]

It will be a hard knot to untangle and will take the better part of a 2 years to close down.

Liberals who want it closed down immediately will be disappointed, but it is such a PR disaster that any sane progessive foreign policy advisor will make the calculation, a correct one in my view, that shutting it down is better in the long run than keeping it open, and Obama is likely to agree with that.


What if that sane advisor gets access to all of the intel on what and who is in there, and decides based on THAT that it ought to stay open. Or will they simply symbolically close it, and open a similar operation somewhere else?

[RandomGuy]

What if that sane advisor gets access to all of the intel on what and who is in there, and decides based on THAT that it ought to stay open. Or will they simply symbolically close it, and open a similar operation somewhere else?

A mixture of releasing the obviously non-threats, and the latter would be my guess.

I imagine that the really threatening guys will be, as quietly as possible, either given to friendly police states like Saudi Arabia or similar to lock up and throw away the key, and possibly actually charged with crimes.

The detainees are, unfortunately, too high profile at this time to simply make them "disappear" into the numerous secret detention facilities that I am sure are operational world-wide.

Ultimately the most ethical thing would be to straight up release most, if not all of them, but I don't see this being done, as it would be extraordinarily difficult politically.

Personally, I would be comfortable with an action like this. I judge whatever damage the really dangerous ones might do to us down the road pales compared to the PR damage, as I have previously stated.

I would simply , as the really dangerous ones are released, spend a lot of effort to keep tabs on them, and quietly kill them a few months to a year down the road, if they aren't immediately jailed by a friendly government.

[RandomGuy]

Make no mistake however:

A lot of the people at Gitmo are either very low threats or truly not threats at all.

Some of them have been radicalized by their incarceration, but there are more truly innocent guys there than anybody in the Bush adminstration will admit to.

[101A]

I would simply , as the really dangerous ones are released, spend a lot of effort to keep tabs on them, and quietly kill them a few months to a year down the road, if they aren't immediately jailed by a friendly government.


:rollin

Oh holy shit.

You bleeding heart humanitarian you.

[RandomGuy]

I don't know....Obama's first pick in his cabinet his "Chief of Staff" is a Jew. "They're" gonna make a HUGE deal out of that.

We've done all of that in Afghanistan - as far as I can tell, hasn't helped. (of course we've also stopped the beheading of women and gays and that didn't endear Bush to those factions in this country AT ALL)

They may indeed make a big deal out of the chief of staff being Jewish. Scary thing is that it will be made a big deal out of in right-wing Europe as well. Not sure how that will pan out.

We have done a fair amount for Kabul, but have done virtually NOTHING for most of the rest of Afghanistan. If you will remember the much-touted statistic that we have been spending more in 3 weeks in Iraq as we have in eight years in Afghanistan.

If we can REALLY make a difference, as Obama seems determined to do, we will start seeing results.

We got rid of the Taliban but didn't replace them with anything, and essentially abandoned a lot of the country to bandits. These thugs have made it even more difficult to do the kinds of infrastructure projects that might make a difference in the life of the average Afghani.

[RandomGuy]

:rollin

Oh holy shit.

You bleeding heart humanitarian you.

I keep telling people, I am not the bleeding-heart liberal that some seem to think I am.

I generally and truly believe that ethical behavior is the best way to go with foreign policy, but one MUST temper this with realism about how dedicated some of these people are to killing.

Some amount of those detained at Gitmo are truly threats and would truly kill people down the road if left to their own devices.

If we are truly convinced they are threats and have enough evidence, detaining them, but keeping that evidence secret is stupid. If you aren't willing to put them in a fair trail with open evidence, then detaining them at Gitmo is harmful to your long-term interests.

Remember, we are fighting for public opinion ultimately.

Better to simply "disappear" them after they have quietly been released and off the public radar.

Either give them trials, or don't bother with picking them up in the first place.

[~~~~~~]

More "truth squads".
http://votersthink.org/?p=720

[Nbadan]

Better to simply "disappear" them after they have quietly been released and off the public radar.

That's exactly what I expect, the low-level guys will be released and any enemy combatants will be turned over to their home countries to face 'enemy of the state' trials...

[Nbadan]

We got rid of the Taliban but didn't replace them with anything, and essentially abandoned a lot of the country to bandits. These thugs have made it even more difficult to do the kinds of infrastructure projects that might make a difference in the life of the average Afghani.

Until we pull major combat troops out of Iraq, which could take a couple years, don't expect there to be much significant movement in Afghanistan, although, I fully expect NATO to carry more of the load....

[RandomGuy]

Until we pull major combat troops out of Iraq, which could take a couple years, don't expect there to be much significant movement in Afghanistan, although, I fully expect NATO to carry more of the load....

That will probably be the first real result of the Obama presidency, as I think I have mentioned.

Time for the Europeans to pony up a couple brigades.

[shelshor]

From talking to a variety of farmers, ranchers, crop insurance agents and implement dealers:
With all the other costs of producing crops rising, when the expected rise of fuel kicks in, farmers are going to be looking for the best return on produce; sadly that looks like more land being turned from food (and clothing) production to more corn for the ethanol plants and the greater subsidies that go along with it--especially if Tom Daschle, now a lobbyist for the ethanol industry, continues to be an Obama advisor
So the price of food at the store is going to continue to rise, and some things are going to be much harder to find
Agricultural trade will also decline, resulting in even larger trade deficits
More of the small "family" farmers will go out of business only to be bought up by the corporate farms

[RandomGuy]

It's going to be more corrupt and more easily influenced by outside elements than it ever has been before.


Given that he has already instituted some lobbying reforms that make it harder to bounce back and forth between lobbying firms and the government, and has stated that he intends to do more, I guess we will check back in on this one in 3.5 years.

[RandomGuy]

I predict he will be the best President we have had in a long, long time,


I wonder if Dan still thinks this?

[RandomGuy]

The campaign that, at least for the ENTIRE stretch run, was almost exclusively about domestic issues; will ultimately lead to a presidency dominated by foreign policy ones.

Just a prediction.

Hmmm. Not really, vis a vis Obamacare et al.

[RandomGuy]

I think early on you can expect to see some key legislation. You're probably going to see a push very quickly to move toward greener energy and I think you'll see legislation that pushes this forward.

Probably the first big thing they'll do is try to get a federa program in place to repair our countries infrastructure. This is an excellent way to create jobs and the fact of the matter is that we severely need to do this. I don't see how anyone will oppose this if they truly want to work in a unified manner so I guess this will be a key test on how the GOP plans to deal with Obama early on.

I think you'll also see Guantanamo Bay closed. You'll see a move away from torture in any form and you'll likely see some intelligence reform as well.

But in the end priority number one is the economy and that will dominate his early first term unless we're attacked in a huge manner. Thats why I think you'll see a large infrastructure plan and/or a green energy plan as well since both can address large issues while creating economic stimulus.

Ouch.

Tea anyone?

No infrastructure for you/us.

[boutons_deux]

"move toward greener energy"

another HUGE diff in the choice: Barry vs Gecko

Gecko wants to kill all wind and solar tax expenditures and loan guarantees.

[boutons_deux]

"production to more corn for the ethanol plants"

ethanol plants are closing due to high corn prices making their ethanol too expensive.

Dems MUST kill the ethanol rule that says it must be in gasoline, one of the stupidest and most blatant corporate welfare scams of the Repugs.

[CosmicCowboy]

"production to more corn for the ethanol plants"

ethanol plants are closing due to high corn prices making their ethanol too expensive.

Dems MUST kill the ethanol rule that says it must be in gasoline, one of the stupidest and most blatant corporate welfare scams of the Repugs.

GFY

Farm state dems and whacko dem greenies were all over that shit too.

[CosmicCowboy]

:lol

Damn

I nailed the hell out of that one 4 years ago...


Originally Posted by CosmicCowboy
It is going to be very interesting watching him now that he has to actually govern instead of just promising hope and change.

Reality is gonna be a bitch.

We will see just how much you guys like him within a year when he comes back and tells you:

* The deficit will be more than $1 trillion a year for several years
* The country needs a massive new fiscal stimulus
* The housing market will continue to decline through at least 2010
* Interest rates and taxes will eventually have to rise (after the economy stabilizes)
* Weak corporations have to be allowed to fail
* Millions of homeowners will lose their house
* Unemployment will probably rise to 10%
* The government simply cannot "bail the country out" -- not because it lacks the will, but because it lacks the power

Oh yeah...all those things I promised you in the election? woops. I lied.

[Wild Cobra]

:lol

Damn

I nailed the hell out of that one 4 years ago...
Notice any of mine while you were at it?

[RandomGuy]

(8) Obama will likely win re-election, unless the Republicans get their shit together.

DING!

You win.

Republicans did not get their shit together.

[RandomGuy]

As for Gitmo; I've got a hunch liberals are gonna be disappointed in the results there. I bet it stays open for business.

DING! Another winner.

Something of a Pyrrhic victory, but spot on, nonetheless.

[RandomGuy]

:lol

Damn

I nailed the hell out of that one 4 years ago...

Pretty much.

[RandomGuy]

Americans and their wallets are going to need a giant jar of this to make it through all of Obama's socialist programs he crams down our throats.

http://www.fatcitytattoo.com/vaseline.jpg

mandatory health insurance. Slightly right. We had health costs socialised already.

[RandomGuy]

Of course...look it was a pretty bad miss, but it's still just one miss...I'm 4-2 now and that's still better than most people I know.

Most of the people talking shit now got fucking owned badly in 2004....for instance Nbadan. Did they shut up? No...


The way I look at it...even if I was wrong about the election, I'm not wrong about Obama.

I mean I expected W to lose in a landslide in 2000, he didn't, but that doesn't mean I was wrong about how shitty of a President he was going to be....

Sometimes the American people fuck up...this was a worse fuck up than 2000 though...although without that fuck up this fuck up likely wouldn't have happened.



The question now is will the Republicans respond as the Democrats did by becoming shittier than the Republicans? If they do..who knows, I might wind up voting for Obama in 2012.

RIP, whottt.

Republicans responded with ... Donald Trump. Lucky you didn't live to see it.

[Trill Clinton]

relevant bump

[baseline bum]

I sincerely hope the Dems aren't stupid enough to use the nuclear option of eliminating the filibuster.

That would be a mistake of epic proportions.


Well that was a mistake not using reconciliation, considering the Republicans now use it. For instance, on the 61st repeal of Obamacare and likely the 62nd one too in January.

[Th'Pusher]

Well that was a mistake not using reconciliation, considering the Republicans now use it. For instance, on the 61st repeal of Obamacare and likely the 62nd one too in January.

I thought they did use reconciliation to pass Obamacare???

[baseline bum]

I thought they did use reconciliation to pass Obamacare???

Nope they bent over backwards for Ben Nelson's vote to avoid the filibuster and got fucked over for it. With reconciliation they could have passed Pelosi's house bill that included a public option.

[Splits]

Nope they bent over backwards for Ben Nelson's vote to avoid the filibuster and got fucked over for it. With reconciliation they could have passed Pelosi's house bill that included a public option.

Yep, they "shoved it down our throats" with 60 votes in the Senate.


The Jan. 9 news article “ Obama vetoes bill aimed at repealing health law (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/01/08/obama-vetoes-republican-repeal-of-health-care-law/)” repeated a commonly held misconception about the process used to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2010: “To pass the Obamacare repeal bill, Republican lawmakers used the complex budget procedure known as reconciliation to avoid a filibuster in this case — the same procedure Democrats used to pass the bill in 2009 when they controlled both the House and Senate.” The Senate did not use the reconciliaton process to pass the ACA. The act, comprising 906 pages, is the basic comprehensive substance of Obamacare. It was passed on a bill that was filibustered, and a supermajority vote of 60 was required to end that filibuster (by invoking cloture under Senate Rule 22). It was signed by the president on March 23, 2010, and became Public Law 111-148.

A second bill, which was a reconciliation bill, was passed after that date to make a series of discrete budgetary changes in the ACA. That act, the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, was signed by the president on March 30, 2010, and became Public Law 111-152. It comprises 54 pages, 42 of which dealt with health care. Like the reconciliation bill in 2010, the reconciliation bill that the president vetoed this month made discrete budgetary changes in existing law. That vetoed bill did not “repeal” Obamacare. It amended several of the law’s budgetary components while leaving the basic structure of the law in place.

The Democrats played by the rules in 2010 in overcoming a filibuster to first pass the ACA, and then using the reconciliation process to pass a second bill making strictly budgetary changes in existing law. T he Republicans played by the rules this time to likewise make budgetary changes in existing law.

Proper procedure in 2010, proper procedure now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obamacare-was-not-passed-using-budget-reconciliation/2016/01/22/e72d321a-bed5-11e5-98c8-7fab78677d51_story.html?utm_term=.e27a33748709

[spurraider21]

Yep, they "shoved it down our throats" with 60 votes in the Senate.was "shoved down" because it passed without a single republican vote. cloture vote and bill vote was completely along party lines. same 60 who voted for cloture voted for the bill

https://projects.propublica.org/represent/votes/111/senate/1/388