Will the Spurs finish the season with one home loss?

[RobinsontoDuncan]

I don't think they will but I remember reading that their opponents winning percentage for the remaining home games is the lowest percentage in the league. (for opp. %)

We'll have to beat Houston twice in order to remain on track, but I can't remember even the Kings ever being this dominant at home.

What are your thoughts?

*1-10 denotes difficulty rating.
** denotes a Jerry Sloan Coached team

Wed 23 Houston....(8)
Sat 26 Memphis.....(7)

March

Wed 2 Toronto.....(3)
Fri 4 Chicago........(6)
Sun 6 Utah**......(10)
Tue 8 New Jersey..(7)
Sat 12 Denver...... (8)
Mon 14 New Orleans(2)
Wed 16 Minnesota..(4)
Fri 18 Charlotte......(1)
Fri 25 Atlanta.........(1)
Sun 27 Houston......(8)
Wed 30 Seattle......(10)

April

Sat 2 L.A. Lakers......(3)
Wed 6 L.A. Clippers...(2)
Tue 12 Portland........(4)
Sat 16 Memphis........(7)

[texbound]

I think the Spurs will lose 1, possbily 2, of the remaining 17 games left at home. If they go 15-2 the rest of the way at home and .500 on the road, their record will be 63-19 (their best ever record). Not bad at all.

[baseline bum]

The 85-86 Celtics went 40-1 at home, with their 1 home loss being to Portland on the last day of the season I think (resting for the playoffs after running away with the league's best record).

[SPARKY]

Spurs fans getting ahead of themselves.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Yeah I myself am inclined to bilieve that we will lose one or two, but it would be pretty sweet to finish out the season w/o two home loses.

Houston and Seattle will be tough

[boutons]

If I had to distribute a fixed number of losses between home and road, I'd gladly trade 2 or 3 "good" home losses for 2 or 3 W's on the road vs these serious tests:

Mar
Wed 9 @ Phoenix
Sun 20 @ Detroit
Wed 23 @ Indiana

Apr
Thu 7 @ Dallas
Wed 13 @ Utah
Mon 18 @ Memphis
Wed 20 @ Minnesota (assuming McHale turns them around.)

40 - 1 at home would be "cool" but winning all the remaining tough road games would be a better indicator that the Spurs are tough enough to win big (playoff) games on the road. Playoffs are too late to start getting tough (see last May).

It wasn't so long ago that Kings/ARCO/cowbells were the toughest home team, but season home court dominance didn't fill their trophy case.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

yeah but have they (Kings) ever gone 40-1 at home...No!

[boutons]

"yeah but have they (Kings) ever gone 40-1 at home...No!"

You're talking to yourself, do you have a point?

The Spurs have never gone 40-1 at home either, but they have a lot more conference/league trophies than the Kings'.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Ok, boutons you should be excluded from a thread like this because you're the defenition of pessimistic.

[spursfaninla]

Buttons has a point.

The Utah team that went 40-2 at home went to the finals (I believe), but didn't win it all, so home dominance is not everything.

Winning on the road is VERY important to playoff success, true. But so is HCA, and being top seed. There are all kinds of statistical things we can notice and say are important. For instance, winning the first 2 playoff games made the Laker's comeback VERY unlikley, but it did happen.

If the Spurs are a great road team, it gives them an edge in the playoffs. Most teams lose at least one game at home during the playoffs, so you need to be able to go to their crib and steal some games back.


So does experience winning games with clutch closing moments. Not being afraid to take over, and being able to make good decisions under the greatest of the pressure situations is a key ingredient to champions.

Having home court advantage is very big also. The team with home court in the playoffs wins something like .60% of the time, though we lost against the lakers with home court advantage.

I think being dominant at home is great, but must be seen in relation to the other important factors to realize its relative importance, which is big but not decisive.

With all that said, I would love for us to go 41-1. I see more likley we lose about 1/3 of the games against top teams (about 8 tough games left) and go something like 38-4, which would still be a great Spurs team. If we continue to improve on the road, we still have a shot at over 60 wins.

[bigzak25]

at the end of the season, all that will matter is if we can stay healthy and make outside shots when opponents try to close off the lane. this is why TP cannot stop running in may/june, cuz it just gives opponents that much more time to setup the D. this is also why barry needs more minutes, cuz we don't need him bricking in the playoffs....

but good thread, i'll take homecourt whatever way our spurs can get it. i eagerly await the detroit, houston and phoenix games.....

[Rummpd]

"I see more likley we lose about 1/3 of the games against top teams (about 8 tough games left) and go something like 38-4"

Note we only have 29 games left, Spurs should go easily 23 and 6 or something like that for 64 wins.

Who cares if on road or at home?? Just get the wins and hopefully 1 seed.

MadDoc

[td4mvp21]

^Exactly
I wouldn't fret over the road until the playoffs.

[boutons]

"I wouldn't fret over the road until the playoffs."

It's much better if a team can be tested during the season, esp on the road. Winning on the road, which is a tough situation by definition (or HCA wouldn't be so universally desired), esp against the better teams, is an excellent preparation for the tough situaitons of the playoffs.

Being ahead and fighting off furious combacks to defend a lead and win the game (not like @TOR).

Being down late in the game and mounting your own successful comeback (like @PHX).

Winning close games, means ball care (no TOs), hitting the boards, precise execution (not Devin falling down @HOU) and everybody having their head in the game (not Devin trying to dribble @HOU), working for good shots, preferably in the paint, hitting your FTs, brutal, disruptive defense, in 4th qtr, in crunch time.

This is what Pop calls "being really tested". Passing those diverse tests DURING THE SEASON givess a team confidence and toughness to win DURING THE PLAYOFFS.

While the Spurs defense has been pretty erratic, let's assume the Spurs defense will get better. What worries me the most is, echos of last May, the Spurs offense not being to score enough against teams that even pretend to play defense. MEM, DET, MIA, HOU, even DAL. We lost @MIA, lost that t"est", "a top team on the road", as the Heat shut down our paint scoring, and scored 48 points in our paint, letting Wade take an open shot from the elbow. Way too much like the LAL collapse for comfort.

Going 7-0 or even 5-2 in the above list of games would just about be ideal SPAM.

[td4mvp21]

wow who knew my one little sentence would turn into a half a page lecture......

[RobinsontoDuncan]

since when did this thread get Hijacked by Boutons into the Spur's playoff picture?

If we are unbeatable at home we will win every series becuase this team is capable of winnign on the road, especially on at least one day's rest.

There's a stat i would like Boutons to look up, what our record is the day after a break.