duncan228
11-10-2008, 02:58 PM
Hollinger's PER Diem: Nov. 10, 2008 (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=JHPERDiem-081110)
Parker's loss is even more devastating to the Spurs than Smith's absence is to the Hawks. The French speedster was leading the league in PER as he tried to keep the Spurs afloat during an early-season rough patch, one that suddenly looks a whole lot rougher now that he'll be out for about 15 games.
In his absence, San Antonio has two problems. The first is that the Spurs are losing their leading scorer and have little offense in reserve. Manu Ginobili isn't slated to return until mid-December -- around the same time Parker is supposed to return -- and San Antonio's secondary offensive players are mostly spot-up role players unable to create offense for themselves. That means we'll be seeing a steady diet of Tim Duncan, obviously, and we shouldn't be surprised if he plays closer to 40 minutes a game than his usual 30-32 over the next month.
However, there's a second problem that I mentioned last week. For reasons that escape me, the Spurs can't guard anybody -- they're last in defensive efficiency, and even before Parker went out Friday they were losing at home by 14 to a middling Heat team. One exec I talked to pointed out that the Spurs now play small for most of the game, where in the past it was a rarity, and that's changed their ability to dominate at the defensive end. Fair enough, but by any measure this is a staggering decline -- San Antonio was third in defensive efficiency a year ago, and this was about the last team you'd expect to suddenly lose its focus.
In the meantime, one has to wonder how much ground the Spurs will have to make up once Parker and Ginobili return. If we presume they'll each miss 14 games and return for the Dec. 9 game in Dallas, it's vital for the Spurs to scratch out a few wins since they're already in a hole at 1-4. Given that the upcoming schedule includes several toughies (two each against Denver and Houston, one each against Utah and Detroit), it's entirely possible the Spurs could be something like 6-13 when Parker returns. If so, San Antonio will need to play quite well over the final three-quarters of the season just to make its customary playoff trip.
It's a testament to San Antonio's success during the past decade that not one exec I talked to the past few days would even consider the idea of this team's failing. But it's fair to say that, as much as you can conclude anything from five games, you can conclude that this team might be in some serious trouble.
Parker's loss is even more devastating to the Spurs than Smith's absence is to the Hawks. The French speedster was leading the league in PER as he tried to keep the Spurs afloat during an early-season rough patch, one that suddenly looks a whole lot rougher now that he'll be out for about 15 games.
In his absence, San Antonio has two problems. The first is that the Spurs are losing their leading scorer and have little offense in reserve. Manu Ginobili isn't slated to return until mid-December -- around the same time Parker is supposed to return -- and San Antonio's secondary offensive players are mostly spot-up role players unable to create offense for themselves. That means we'll be seeing a steady diet of Tim Duncan, obviously, and we shouldn't be surprised if he plays closer to 40 minutes a game than his usual 30-32 over the next month.
However, there's a second problem that I mentioned last week. For reasons that escape me, the Spurs can't guard anybody -- they're last in defensive efficiency, and even before Parker went out Friday they were losing at home by 14 to a middling Heat team. One exec I talked to pointed out that the Spurs now play small for most of the game, where in the past it was a rarity, and that's changed their ability to dominate at the defensive end. Fair enough, but by any measure this is a staggering decline -- San Antonio was third in defensive efficiency a year ago, and this was about the last team you'd expect to suddenly lose its focus.
In the meantime, one has to wonder how much ground the Spurs will have to make up once Parker and Ginobili return. If we presume they'll each miss 14 games and return for the Dec. 9 game in Dallas, it's vital for the Spurs to scratch out a few wins since they're already in a hole at 1-4. Given that the upcoming schedule includes several toughies (two each against Denver and Houston, one each against Utah and Detroit), it's entirely possible the Spurs could be something like 6-13 when Parker returns. If so, San Antonio will need to play quite well over the final three-quarters of the season just to make its customary playoff trip.
It's a testament to San Antonio's success during the past decade that not one exec I talked to the past few days would even consider the idea of this team's failing. But it's fair to say that, as much as you can conclude anything from five games, you can conclude that this team might be in some serious trouble.