Hollinger: 80% chance Spurs don't make playoffs

[CubanMustGo]

We all know the dude's an idiot due to his over-reliance on raw numbers above all else. Today his brilliant take is that the Spurs have less than a 1-in-5 chance of making the playoffs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

He even calls them "Playoff Odds". If he would put his money where his mouth is we could all take advantage of his blind reliance on statistics. The fact that we've played basically the entire season without two of the big three, and that they're coming back next month, is apparently totally irrelevant.

[mathbzh]

He also said that:


So will San Antonio miss the playoffs?
The playoff odds know a team's past results and its schedule. The one big piece of information it does not know is injuries. So the fact that the Spurs are playing without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker doesn't enter into the formula; the playoff odds tool just sees a bunch of unimpressive results and reacts accordingly. If the Spurs start playing better when those two return, their playoff odds will shift quickly as the team's power ranking rises.


Hollinger may be a moron but he is not blind.

And two thread for that BIIIP is probably too much.

[41times]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.

We all know the Spurs are not a deep team. We know the bench is weak. But considering the won/loss percentage of the Western teams the Spurs will only have to win about 48 games to make the playoffs.

Is there anyone out there that thinks the Spurs win less than 48 games?

[tav1]

I appreciate Hollinger, but only when balanced against reality. One can only have so many Jackie Butler mulligans. He's not nearly as dogmatic as his formulas, and I'm certain he expects to see the Spurs in the playoffs, even if his Monster doesn't.

His power rankings, by the way, have been very accurate the last two years.

[peskypesky]

Idiot!

[G-Nob]

Rodeo Trip

[peskypesky]

I wish I could make this douche put his money where his mouth is and bet on this.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.

We all know the Spurs are not a deep team. We know the bench is weak. But considering the won/loss percentage of the Western teams the Spurs will only have to win about 48 games to make the playoffs.

Is there anyone out there that thinks the Spurs win less than 48 games?

True. Duncan's return should help a lot.

[Dr. Gonzo]

They have been lost without Duncan.

[PeterBurns]

F.U. Hollinger.

That's perfect. Just keep on saying it.

[Trainwreck2100]

The playoff odds know a team's past results and its schedule. The one big piece of information it does not know is injuries. So the fact that the Spurs are playing without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker doesn't enter into the formula; the playoff odds tool just sees a bunch of unimpressive results and reacts accordingly. If the Spurs start playing better when those two return, their playoff odds will shift quickly as the team's power ranking rises.

So if they play the whole season without parker or manu they have an 80% chance of missing the playoffs, way to go out on a limb there

[8ft.tall.tejano]

even for as bad as things have been, when you get tp & manu back in we go back up to contender status....tweak in a big n we're on top...it's just great that hill & mason are getting all these min now to get everything down...

[FromWayDowntown]

Again, if the Spurs somehow don't revert to form -- I think they will -- and somehow miss the playoffs -- I think that unlikely -- the consequence will be that they add a lottery pick to their fold and move on accordingly.

I've said it all season, but if I rooted for any other West club, I'd be praying every day that the Spurs find some way to make the 2009 NBA Playoffs.

[Tully365]

the Spurs are playing without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker ....

If the Spurs start playing better when those two return......


As if there's some chance that adding Parker and Ginobili might not help the Spurs to play better! I'm calling a friend in Vegas today to find out if there is an actual line on the Spurs making the playoffs. That's a bet I'm definitely willing to make.

[xtremesteven33]

Nothing to see here folks.....Spurs will make the playoffs

[duncan228]

Under the radar. Just the way we like it.

[ehz33satx]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.



Since when have the Spurs been without Duncan this year? You must not be watching Spurs games at all! It's Ginobili AND Tony Parker who are out.

[I. Hustle]

I hope Duncan comes back s00n.

[Cry Havoc]

Has there been a title-season when we weren't completely doubted and overshadowed by critics at some point?

[Xylus]

I don't get what the problem is here. Hollinger's odds are based on the idea that Ginobili and Parker aren't playing the rest of the season. I don't think the Spurs would have a very good chance of making the playoffs without those two players. Tim Duncan can't carry that kind of load for a whole season.

Fortunately, those two will be back, you will make the playoffs, and in a month Hollinger's playoff odds will reflect that.

[romain.star]

on top of it, none of the West big guns have had impressive starts (except LA).
We're just 2 losses away from the 2nd spot without TP and Manu... sounds good to me !

[timaios]

I don't get what the problem is here. Hollinger's odds are based on the idea that Ginobili and Parker aren't playing the rest of the season. I don't think the Spurs would have a very good chance of making the playoffs without those two players. Tim Duncan can't carry that kind of load for a whole season.

Fortunately, those two will be back, you will make the playoffs, and in a month Hollinger's playoff odds will reflect that.

Exactly.
This is mathematics. And mathematics ignore injuries.

[SenorSpur]

I said this before. The two factors that will determine whether they make the playoffs or not are:

1. Healthy return of Manu and TP and continued good health for the duration of the season
2. How big of a hole the team has dug for itself by the time these guys get back

[Matches Malone]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.

We all know the Spurs are not a deep team. We know the bench is weak. But considering the won/loss percentage of the Western teams the Spurs will only have to win about 48 games to make the playoffs.

Is there anyone out there that thinks the Spurs win less than 48 games?


:lmao Pss...I think we have a Timmy-look-a-like impersonating him pretty well. Any chance we can sign this guy once Timmy returns?
Imagine that...at PF TD and at C his impersonator. Better than Drob-TD combo. Get ready the champagne.:flag:

[JamStone]

Hollinger is an idiot. That has been proven over and over.

However, I'll reiterate what some have already explained in this thread. It's not really about him or reality so much as it is odds based on what has transpired in the season "so far." Probability does not equate to fact or accurate forecasting. It's just more ESPN bullshit to get discussion going.


Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by ESPN.com's John Hollinger.

The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the SEASON SO FAR.

Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.

[duncan228]

:lmao Pss...I think we have a Timmy-look-a-like impersonating him pretty well. Any chance we can sign this guy once Timmy returns?
Imagine that...at PF TD and at C his impersonator.

Maybe we could have a whole team of Duncan's. :lol
Hemotivo's sig:

http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x282/duncan228/oddsandends/Hemotivosig.png

[Mr. Body]

They're a long shot still. And if they make it, they're a safe bet to get creamed early on. But we have a chance!!

[ambchang]

The biggest problem I have with his model is the 100% and 0% ratings.
His model has sprouted out 100% playoff odds for a team, then later revert to less than 100%. That is impossible mathematically. If a team is to make the playoffs 100% of the time, they should not be less than 100% at any point in time in the future for that particular season, based on definition alone.

The same is true, only in reverse, for 0%.

[41times]

Since when have the Spurs been without Duncan this year? You must not be watching Spurs games at all! It's Ginobili AND Tony Parker who are out.

Sorry my bad, i meant to write Parker and Ginobli. Too much crack on an empty stomach is not good!:toast

[doobs]

Holinger is a moron. He tries to reduce every argument in sports to a numbers game. Absolutely pathetic when you consider the unpredictability of sports. Players are human, they get injuries, they get hot, they get cold, they feud with teammates and coaches . . . each game offers a different, and possibly totally unexpected, result.

Sure, you can make educated guesses about who will win or lose. But that's it. They play the game for a reason.

The numbers that I think matter are the Vegas numbers. Those numbers represent the collected wisdom of people who put money on the line. Personally, I would never bet on teams I like; but if I did, I would probably be less emotional, and thus more realistic, about my teams' chances. (And sports would stop being fun.)

[PURO SAN ANTO 210!]

We're Gonna Be Right There In The End I Can Bet On That!
Go Spurs Go!!!!

[Manufan909]

I said this before. The two factors that will determine whether they make the playoffs or not are:

1. Healthy return of Manu and TP and continued good health for the duration of the season
2. How big of a hole the team has dug for itself by the time these guys get back

Dude, TP's been carrying us this season!!! Can't wait for duncan to come back.:downspin:

[Borosai]

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/9979/sthollingerboardgl9.jpg

[CubanMustGo]

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/9979/sthollingerboardgl9.jpg

:lmao

[Manu-of-steel]

we're under the radar, and that's good. it would make our players work extra hard to make a point.

[Spur-Addict]

Hollinger: I have a 80% chance of losing my job.

[Sean Cagney]

They were just at .500 and 8th seed with all these problems and injuries, guess when they get them back they won't make the playoffs ;). Dude is an idiot.

[Avitus1]

Hollinger:They've done studies, you know. 80% of the time I'm right, every time.

[PURO SAN ANTO 210!]

Puro San Antonio Spurs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JPB]

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/9979/sthollingerboardgl9.jpg


Classic.

[Rummpd]

I would take any bet on this against Hollinger and in fact be on the Spurs 10 days ago to still win NBA championship at 12:1 odds and happy with those odds still. Sublime.

[hater]

the funny thing about this idiot is that if he is wrong (which he usuallyl is) he just blames it on the numbers.

dumbass

[rascal]

I would take any bet on this against Hollinger and in fact be on the Spurs 10 days ago to still win NBA championship at 12:1 odds and happy with those odds still. Sublime.

The spurs bet to make the playoffs is a good one. To win a championship is a bad one.

Not with the weak play of the frontcourt they won't win this year. You cannot get out rebounded every game by a wide margin against the better playoff teams consistently and expect to win.

[saxman]

Am I wrong to note that the Spurs would only need to win the Division to be in the playoffs...regardless of record...as long as they win the division they will be seeded 1,2, or 3rd. Considering how awful the division is right now, I would say the spurs have a great shot at making the playoffs. By the way, currently the spurs are 1 game behind in the loss column. The hornets and rockets have 5 losses and the spurs have 6. As long as Parker and manu regain their health, The spurs will make the playoffs. Whether they win in the playoffs is a different story...that depends a lot in team matchups.