Still @ .500 in Two Weeks?

[sandman]

Reading about how close both Manu and Tony are getting in their projected returns, and looking at the schedule over the next two weeks, does the team have a realistic shot at doing anything other than maintaining an even record going into the game @ Dallas?

Not that staying @ .500 is not a remarkable achievement for Timmy and The Scrubs, but it doesn't look like the schedule will do much more than allow them to tread water.

@MEM (MEM playing .500 at home)
CHI (Horrible road record)
MEM (Horrible road record)
@HOU (Barely played any home games)
DET (Good road record)
@DEN (Great home record)
GWS (Bad road record)

I am seeing this as lock for 3 losses (@ HOU because of B2B, DET and @DEN) with the game @MEM going either way. So either 10-9 or 9-10 going into the game against DAL, who seem like they have finally figured out how to play.

The last time they started a season at 9-10 was 2003-04, the infamous '.4' year. Granted, that team ended up winning 57 games that year, but they followed the 10-10 start with an 17-1 streak and finished the regular season on an 11 game win streak.

The Western Conference playoff bar is being set ~48 wins. With a much older team than 03-04 and a little bit of magic lost in the RRT this last year, if Manu and Tony take too much longer coming back, this team won't be able to survive in treading water mode.

[Allanon]

@MEM (MEM playing .500 at home)
CHI (Horrible road record)
MEM (Horrible road record)
@HOU (Barely played any home games)
DET (Good road record)
@DEN (Great home record)
GWS (Bad road record)

I am seeing this as lock for 3 losses (@ HOU because of B2B, DET and @DEN) with the game @MEM going either way. So either 10-9 or 9-10 going into the game against DAL, who seem like they have finally figured out how to play.


This is the particularly bad stretch in the schedule, this is what I think (assuming Tony/Manu aren't back for these)

@MEM - L
CHI - L
MEM - W
@HOU - L
DET - L
@DEN - L
GSW - W
DAL - L
ATL - L

But the good news is after these next ~3 weeks, things get much better and the Spurs should finish the year going at least 6-3. And Manu will get a gentle re-joining during this period.

[Bartleby]

In another thread I predicted the Spurs would go 4-11 during this 15 game stretch w/o Tony and Manu so they've already exceeded my initial expectations.

That said, I would love to see them finish a couple of games over .500 while holding down the fort but it seems unlikely.

I'm not worried though. I think they will put together some nice win streaks once they are all healthy and they will probably be right back in the thick of the playoff hunt by mid season.

[Bender]

One of the ESPN commentators (Mashburn I think) said a week or so ago that if the Spurs could stay within 3 or 4 games below .500 without Manu & Tony it would be miracle...

[exstatic]

It's not going to be two weeks before either are back. I would put Manu at day to day. They probably won't play him tonight, since it's a road game, but Wednesday won't be a surprise at all if you're following his quotes and Pop's. Tony may be closer to two weeks, but then if Manu's back, and Hill and Money are playing well, why rush it? He's shooting around with the team and doing light work.

[Dex]

I think that Manu might be back before the end of this stretch. He's already chomping at the bit to play, and I can't see Pop holding that back another 2 weeks as planned.

I think Pop manages to sit Manu a couple more, then Manu either comes back Friday in the second Memphis game to regain his legs, or against Houston.

Even with no Tony and Manu, I still hope for a 4-3 stretch with some surprising wins, which would put the Spurs above .500 going into the heart of this season. And better than most of us would've hoped for after Tony dropped.

Gotta take care of business against those first three, then hope for a steal through the last 4.

[sandman]

This is the particularly bad stretch in the schedule, this is what I think (assuming Tony/Manu aren't back for these)

@MEM - L
CHI - L
MEM - W
@HOU - L
DET - L
@DEN - L
GSW - W
DAL - L
ATL - L

But the good news is after these next ~3 weeks, things get much better and the Spurs should finish the year going at least 6-3. And Manu will get a gentle re-joining during this period.

Why do you consider the Bulls game a loss for the Spurs? It will be the 6th game of a 7 game road trip for the Bulls, they only have one road win all year, only one of their current 6 losses have been by less than 5 points, and they play the Jazz in SLC tonight before coming to SA on Wednesday. They are simply not a competitive road team.

[sandman]

It's not going to be two weeks before either are back. I would put Manu at day to day. They probably won't play him tonight, since it's a road game, but Wednesday won't be a surprise at all if you're following his quotes and Pop's. Tony may be closer to two weeks, but then if Manu's back, and Hill and Money are playing well, why rush it? He's shooting around with the team and doing light work.

I looked out for two weeks mainly because even if both come back during that timeframe, it is going to take a few games for them to work out their personal kinks and for the overall rotation to reset and everyone learn their 'normal' roles for this team.

[Allanon]

Why do you consider the Bulls game a loss for the Spurs? It will be the 6th game of a 7 game road trip for the Bulls, they only have one road win all year, only one of their current 6 losses have been by less than 5 points, and they play the Jazz in SLC tonight before coming to SA on Wednesday. They are simply not a competitive road team.

Ah, because the last time Rose was in San Antonio, he left with alot of people saying he was over-rated. The sight of the Alamodome should have him fired up for the game.

[m33p0]

Ah, because the last time Rose was in San Antonio, he left with alot of people saying he was over-rated. The sight of the Alamodome should have him fired up for the game.
one player doesn't make a team. you should know that by now.

[exstatic]

Ah, because the last time Rose was in San Antonio, he left with alot of people saying he was over-rated. The sight of the Alamodome should have him fired up for the game.

Except we haven't played there in like 6 seasons. :rolleyes

[urunobili]

@mem - W
Chi - W
Mem - W
@hou - L
Det - W
@den - W
Gsw - W
Dal - W
Atl - L

[Allanon]

one player doesn't make a team. you should know that by now.

We shall see.

[Allanon]

Except we haven't played there in like 6 seasons. :rolleyes

Beasley said the Alamodome was on his mind when he came to San Antonio to play the Spurs. Spurs lost that game by 16. :rolleyes

[m33p0]

We shall see.
you, who refuses to give his opinion about Kobe's future? ha!

[Allanon]

you, who refuses to give his opinion about Kobe's future? ha!

Kobe's Future is 5-7 years away, this is happening this week :D

[z0sa]

This is the particularly bad stretch in the schedule, this is what I think (assuming Tony/Manu aren't back for these)

@MEM - L
CHI - L
MEM - W
@HOU - L
DET - L
@DEN - L
GSW - W
DAL - L
ATL - L

But the good news is after these next ~3 weeks, things get much better and the Spurs should finish the year going at least 6-3. And Manu will get a gentle re-joining during this period.

I can realistically see us winning all of these games except against Dallas, Houston, and Detroit. Denver is a tossup, if we play better than last week's game vs them, no reason we shouldn't be in it at the end, and Manu's going to be back soon, maybe even in a couple games.

How do I justify this? Tim Duncan.

[sandman]

Beasley said the Alamodome was on his mind when he came to San Antonio to play the Spurs. Spurs lost that game by 16. :rolleyes

So, because Beasley was motivated by being back in the same city where he had some college memories, he therefore took it out on the Spurs?

Dude is averaging 15 a game, and you're attempting to convince us that his 20 points that night was pure city-based motivation? He only took 10 shots all night when he was averaging 15 shots per night through the first 8 games of the season.

Beasley scoring 5 above his average was not the reason the Spurs lost that game. TP rolling his ankle 10 minutes into the game and DWade almost going triple-double is what lost that game.

[Allanon]

So, because Beasley was motivated by being back in the same city where he had some college memories, he therefore took it out on the Spurs?

Dude is averaging 15 a game, and you're attempting to convince us that his 20 points that night was pure city-based motivation? He only took 10 shots all night when he was averaging 15 shots per night through the first 8 games of the season.

Beasley scoring 5 above his average was not the reason the Spurs lost that game. TP rolling his ankle 10 minutes into the game and DWade almost going triple-double is what lost that game.

Beasley had his 2nd best game of the season in only 30 minutes and the Spurs were down 15 when Tony rolled his ankle.

They had that special on Beasley right before the game and he said it meant alot to him to be back in San Antonio.

[Allanon]

I can realistically see us winning all of these games except against Dallas, Houston, and Detroit. Denver is a tossup, if we play better than last week's game vs them, no reason we shouldn't be in it at the end, and Manu's going to be back soon, maybe even in a couple games.

How do I justify this? Tim Duncan.

Spurs can win, I just think the other games not mentioned have some x-factors. And if Manu/TP are back, then they should win 'em all.

@Memphis is a toss-up, Spurs can definitely win.
Chicago - the Rose motivation, I think he wants redemption of sorts
Atl - Josh Smith will be back and full of energy
@Nuggets - I just think the Nuggz are ballin' right now and it will be hard for any team to beat them in Denver

[m33p0]

Kobe's Future is 5-7 years away, this is happening this week :Ddouble ha! it'll be more like 4-5 years. either that or he'll be in Greece.

[Allanon]

double ha! it'll be more like 4-5 years. either that or he'll be in Greece.

:lol Hahah, we shall see. I can't really argue because you may be right.

[m33p0]

back on topic:

just win the games that can be won and use the others as a learning tool.

[exstatic]

Beasley said the Alamodome was on his mind when he came to San Antonio to play the Spurs. Spurs lost that game by 16. :rolleyes

Yeah, I'm sure that Tony going down with the ankle had nothing to do with that game going down the drain.

[Allanon]

Yeah, I'm sure that Tony going down with the ankle had nothing to do with that game going down the drain.

Yeah, the Spurs were down by 15 points and already on their way to a blow-out when Tony was injured. Even Pop said it in his post-game interview.

[exstatic]

Kobe's Future is 5-7 years away, this is happening this week :D

Kobe is about 1 year younger than Manu and has more NBA miles than Duncan. Any discussions of their pending demise have to include him.

You're in complete denial because it's not fun to talk about, but Kobe's hops are going down the drain within the next two years. Book it. His lateral quickness will be next. It's not a 5-7 year window, it's 2-5.

[Allanon]

Kobe is about 1 year younger than Manu and has more NBA miles than Duncan. Any discussions of their pending dmise have to include him.

You're in complete denial because it's not fun to talk about, but Kobe's hops are going down the drain within the next two years. Book it. His lateral quickness will be next. It's not a 5-7 year window, it's 2-5.

I'm not in denial, I just don't know. I've talked at length about it with m33po but no conclusion and he and I arguing about it would take us nowhere.

There's really no precedent for it yet as far as I know. I think the only current example of the high-school to pro mileage is KG vs Duncan. They're both the same age with KG having 2 years more NBA mileage.

Right now, I would say KG and Duncan are pretty much right at the same rate. We'll know more in 3 years but I have a feeling KG will outlast Duncan in the NBA.

If anything, KG is proof that the NBA mileage doesn't mean much as KG so far has 2 years on Duncan but both are about the same in fitness.

[xellos88330]

The team is looking more like a team now. If everyone keeps contributing and playing well off of each other (and polishing the hell out of the glass), I do not believe it will be a stretch to see them go 6-3.

:downspin: Besides if Enigma keeps making the blogs, the Spurs have a good chance of winning. :downspin:

[sandman]

Yeah, the Spurs were down by 15 points and already on their way to a blow-out when Tony was injured. Even Pop said it in his post-game interview.

A 10-0 run between 4:15 and 2:00 on the game clock in the first quarter constitutes being on their way to a blow out? The game was a 15-point win. So outside of that 10-0 run over roughly two minutes in the FIRST quarter, this was a 5-6 point game. On top of that, Tim only played 28 total minutes in that game, meaning that he only played 18 minutes after Parker left the game in the first quarter and only one minute of the last 4:00 minutes of the 3rd quarter and all of the 4th.

DWade, Marion and Haslem all played 36+ minutes, most of which were against a team w/out Manu, Parker or Duncan. DWade was still in the game taking 20-foot jumpers in the final two minutes of a blowout, scoring 10 points after Duncan left the game for the last time. In fact, if you look at the play-by-play for that game, these three were still in the game when the Heat had a 10-12 point lead with less than two minutes and jacking up shots against scrubs with 12-15 seconds left on the shot clock.

Even with Timy not playing most of the second half and the Heat starters jacking up shots in the last two minutes, the Spurs were only outscored by a total of two points after the first quarter. If you honestly believe that a Spurs team with a healthy TP for the entire game would not have been able to overcome a 10-0 run over a few minutes in the game, then you don't understand the ebb and flow of a basketball game.

And considering that your root for a team coached by the King of Pop Psychology, you should know what it means when a coach makes that type of comment.

[Allanon]

A 10-0 run between 4:15 and 2:00 on the game clock in the first quarter constitutes being on their way to a blow out? The game was a 15-point win. So outside of that 10-0 run over roughly two minutes in the FIRST quarter, this was a 5-6 point game. On top of that, Tim only played 28 total minutes in that game, meaning that he only played 18 minutes after Parker left the game in the first quarter and only one minute of the last 4:00 minutes of the 3rd quarter and all of the 4th.

DWade, Marion and Haslem all played 36+ minutes, most of which were against a team w/out Manu, Parker or Duncan. DWade was still in the game taking 20-foot jumpers in the final two minutes of a blowout, scoring 10 points after Duncan left the game for the last time. In fact, if you look at the play-by-play for that game, these three were still in the game when the Heat had a 10-12 point lead with less than two minutes and jacking up shots against scrubs with 12-15 seconds left on the shot clock.

Even with Timy not playing most of the second half and the Heat starters jacking up shots in the last two minutes, the Spurs were only outscored by a total of two points after the first quarter. If you honestly believe that a Spurs team with a healthy TP for the entire game would not have been able to overcome a 10-0 run over a few minutes in the game, then you don't understand the ebb and flow of a basketball game.

And considering that your root for a team coached by the King of Pop Psychology, you should know what it means when a coach makes that type of comment.

The Spurs were playing VERY poorly to start the seaons (0-3) and the Spurs needed Overtime to win against the lowly TimberWolves. Duncan didn't get much burn because of the extended garbaage time.

I watched the game and it looked to be a loss a couple minutes in, there was absolutely no defense, no energy, guys were just off. And I don't believe the Spurs have rallied from a 15 point deficit this year yet.

[Tully365]

It's always hard to predict how a player will perform as he ages, but if you look at a guy like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, it's interesting to see how his stats probably fooled the experts at least a couple of times during the span of his career.

Kareem's age and scoring averages:

Age 27-- 30 ppg
28-- 27.7
29--26.2
30-- 25.8
31-- 23.8

I'm sure that at this point (the end of the '78-'79 season), many thought that Kareem was in a slow but steady state of decline. In a 5 year span, his scoring average had decreased every single year. Here are the next 5 years:

age 32-- 24.8
33-- 26.2
34-- 23.9
35-- 21.8
36-- 21.5

At age 33, Kareem matches his age 29 scoring production... and then sees 3 seasons of declining numbers.

age 37-- 22 ppg
age 38-- 23.4

Again, Kareem defies probability and has a better scoring average at age 38 than he did for ages 35-37.

Kareem, of course, is not a typical NBA player. But then, neither is Tim Duncan.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/abdulka01.html

[z0sa]

I'm not in denial, I just don't know. I've talked at length about it with m33po but no conclusion and he and I arguing about it would take us nowhere.

There's really no precedent for it yet as far as I know. I think the only current example of the high-school to pro mileage is KG vs Duncan. They're both the same age with KG having 2 years more NBA mileage.

Right now, I would say KG and Duncan are pretty much right at the same rate. We'll know more in 3 years but I have a feeling KG will outlast Duncan in the NBA.

If anything, KG is proof that the NBA mileage doesn't mean much as KG so far has 2 years on Duncan but both are about the same in fitness.

Tim has far more PO wear and tear on his body, which is much more strenuous than regular season "don't even have a chance to make the playoffs" basketball for KG. KG vs TD is no comparison in this regard.

[Allanon]

Tim has far more PO wear and tear on his body, which is much more strenuous than regular season "don't even have a chance to make the playoffs" basketball for KG. KG vs TD is no comparison in this regard.

That is a good point.

Tim has double the number of Playoff games than Garnett so let's add 1 more year of NBA wear and tear to Duncan. And since it's Playoffs, let's add another 40 games. This brings it down to about 40 more games that KG has played than Duncan.

[FromWayDowntown]

WTF memories did Michael Beasley have of the Alamodome? He never played a game there.

Chalmers did; but Beasley didn't.

[sandman]

The Spurs were playing VERY poorly to start the seaons (0-3) and the Spurs needed Overtime to win against the lowly TimberWolves. Duncan didn't get much burn because of the extended garbaage time.

I watched the game and it looked to be a loss a couple minutes in, there was absolutely no defense, no energy, guys were just off. And I don't believe the Spurs have rallied from a 15 point deficit this year yet.

So if the Spurs matched them point for point after the first quarter with no defense, no energy, no Manu/TP, Timmy sitting through all the garbage time and everyone being off, what does that say about the Heat who played their starters through the end of the game?

As far as rallying down from 15 points, do you even know how many times the Spurs have been down by 15 in the 12 games they have played this season?

[Allanon]

WTF memories did Michael Beasley have of the Alamodome? He never played a game there.

Chalmers did; but Beasley didn't.

In that ESPN special interview before the Miami/Spurs game, he was saying that NOT making it is what drives him. He felt like he left his cards on the table.

This is the same with Rose, he left un-finished business in San Antonio.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

KG relies a lot more on athleticism and speed than Timmy, that turnaround 15 foot fade away KG loves with his back to the basket is going to age a lot quicker than Duncan's bank shot and hook shot. Duncan does have more mileage but doesn't need as much youth, it's basically a wash between the two.

[Allanon]

So if the Spurs matched them point for point after the first quarter with no defense, no energy, no Manu/TP, Timmy sitting through all the garbage time and everyone being off, what does that say about the Heat who played their starters through the end of the game?

I don't know? That the Heat aren't a very good team?



As far as rallying down from 15 points, do you even know how many times the Spurs have been down by 15 in the 12 games they have played this season?

None as far as I've seen, I've only missed a couple of games (TWolves, part of the Jazz game and a couple others). Which game was it that they rallied from being down 15?

[z0sa]

That is a good point.

Tim has double the number of Playoff games than Garnett so let's add 1 more year of NBA wear and tear to Duncan. And since it's Playoffs, let's add another 40 games. This brings it down to about 40 more games that KG has played than Duncan.

In all reality, I would go as far to say the regular seasons were tougher on TD, despite having a better supporting cast, at least after the all-star break, with the Spurs were vying for top seed generally while Minny vied for the lottery. I'm not questioning KG's effort, just how much he really cared at the ends of games, etc.

[Allanon]

Again, Kareem defies probability and has a better scoring average at age 38 than he did for ages 35-37.

Kareem, of course, is not a typical NBA player. But then, neither is Tim Duncan.


That's a very good analysis. And as you mentioned, it's very hard to say because these aren't your average Joe Schmoe type of players. Kareem, Malone, Jordan played until they were about 40. The new crop Duncan, KG, Kobe, AI...who knows what age they will play until...very hard to say with extraordinary players.

So far, I haven't seen evidence to the NBA mileage...I agree with DuncanownsKobe thati it's pretty much a wash so far. Possibly because NBA players have better healthcare, better facilities and posher lives than college players. I read somewhere that Kobe has a team of people whose sole job is to watch his health...no college player can afford that.

We'll know better in a couple of years.

[z0sa]

Just got word Manu is coming back tonight. I think we can safely say there's going to be a lot more for HOU, DEN, and DET to worry about now than hanging all over Timmy the whole game.

[sandman]

None as far as I've seen, I've only missed a couple of games (TWolves, part of the Jazz game and a couple others). Which game was it that they rallied from being down 15?

None. They have been down by 15 twice, both in losses to DAL and MIA during that 1-4 start.

I was just checking to see if you had looked it up yourself, because your comment made it sound like they make a regular habit of losing ball games because they go down by 15. "Never" is technically correct since it has happened twice this season, but it exaggerates the point, especially considering the 'tale of two teams' that the Spurs have starred in this year between the first five games and the last seven games.

I don't think that Rose is going to be more of a factor than the 19ppg he has been putting up all season, because it makes no psychological sense that a professional athlete is going to be motivated to play better than normal because he is going to be in a city where he experienced bad times as a college player. It wasn't even against a college team from SA, the city just happened to be the venue.

[FromWayDowntown]

it makes no psychological sense that a professional athlete is going to be motivated to play better than normal because he is going to be in a city where he experienced bad times as a college player. It wasn't even against a college team from SA, the city just happened to be the venue.

Indeed.

It makes far more sense that Michael Beasley wanted to play well against Tim Duncan and the Spurs when the Heat visited in early November because both Duncan and his team have been the measuring sticks for NBA bigmen and their teams for the last decade or so.

That would have been true if the game had been in San Antonio or Corpus Christi.

[Allanon]

None. They have been down by 15 twice, both in losses to DAL and MIA during that 1-4 start.

I was just checking to see if you had looked it up yourself, because your comment made it sound like they make a regular habit of losing ball games because they go down by 15. "Never" is technically correct since it has happened twice this season, but it exaggerates the point, especially considering the 'tale of two teams' that the Spurs have starred in this year between the first five games and the last seven games.

Yes, I've watched most of the Spurs games, that's why I said I don't recall them coming back from 15 points. I did miss a couple of games due to being busy.



I don't think that Rose is going to be more of a factor than the 19ppg he has been putting up all season, because it makes no psychological sense that a professional athlete is going to be motivated to play better than normal because he is going to be in a city where he experienced bad times as a college player. It wasn't even against a college team from SA, the city just happened to be the venue.


Indeed.

It makes far more sense that Michael Beasley wanted to play well against Tim Duncan and the Spurs when the Heat visited in early November because both Duncan and his team have been the measuring sticks for NBA bigmen and their teams for the last decade or so.

That would have been true if the game had been in San Antonio or Corpus Christi.

Beasley said it himself in the ESPN interview, didn't you guys watch it? He was saying it when they showed him in the bus driving past the Alamodome. It was in the pre-game show.

I'll take his words on national TV rather than your opinion if you don't mind.

[sandman]

Yes, I've watched most of the Spurs games, that's why I said I don't recall them coming back from 15 points. I did miss a couple of games due to being busy.





Beasley said it himself in the ESPN interview, didn't you guys watch it? He was saying it when they showed him in the bus driving past the Alamodome. It was in the pre-game show.

I'll take his words on national TV rather than your opinion if you don't mind.

Hey, there have been many things come from the mouths of professional athletes that make you do a "WTF??"

If Beasley needed to drive by the Alamodome and remember his failings from college as a motivator to play against a team that has been the measuring stick of success in the NBA for the last decade, then the boy has a weaker mind than I thought.

That's like me stating that I want to play well in our next beer league softball game because my ex-girlfriend used to work for the company that sponsors the other team...

[m33p0]

Right now, I would say KG and Duncan are pretty much right at the same rate. We'll know more in 3 years but I have a feeling KG will outlast Duncan in the NBA.

Disagree. KD uses athleticism. Duncan uses skills. Skills lasts. Legs don't. The only thing KD would still have that is in better than Duncan's at the end of their respective careers will be his ability to run his mouth off.

[z0sa]

This is the particularly bad stretch in the schedule, this is what I think (assuming Tony/Manu aren't back for these)

@MEM - L ... W
CHI - L
MEM - W
@HOU - L
DET - L
@DEN - L
GSW - W
DAL - L
ATL - L

Already off on your predictions. Not a poke, just curious why you picked us to lose to Memphis first thing? Cmon.

[mystargtr34]

I'm not in denial, I just don't know. I've talked at length about it with m33po but no conclusion and he and I arguing about it would take us nowhere.

There's really no precedent for it yet as far as I know. I think the only current example of the high-school to pro mileage is KG vs Duncan. They're both the same age with KG having 2 years more NBA mileage.

Right now, I would say KG and Duncan are pretty much right at the same rate. We'll know more in 3 years but I have a feeling KG will outlast Duncan in the NBA.

If anything, KG is proof that the NBA mileage doesn't mean much as KG so far has 2 years on Duncan but both are about the same in fitness.

------------07-08-----------------

Garnett -------------- Duncan
18.8 PPG ------------- 19.3 PPG
9.2 RPG -------------- 11.3 RPG
1.3 BPG --------------- 1.9 BPG
4.7 FTA --------------- 5.9 FTA


-------------08-09--------------

Garnett---------------- Duncan
16.1 PPG -------------- 22.4 PPG
8.7 RPG --------------- 10 RPG
1.1 BPG --------------- 1.5 BPG
2.3 FTA --------------- 5.9 FTA

Garnett's minutes have stayed the same, Duncans have upped slightly. Per 40 numbers are also down alot for KG, Tims are nearly identical to his MVP seasons.

Id like to know what your basis is for saying Tim Duncan and Garnett are declining 'at the same rate'?

[sandman]

07-08

Garnett Duncan
18.8 PPG 19.3 PPG
9.2 RPG 11.3 RPG
1.3 BPG 1.9 BPG
4.7 FTA 5.9 FTA


08-09

Garnett Duncan
16.1 PPG 22.4 PPG
8.7 RPG 10 RPG
1.1 BPG 1.5 BPG
2.3 FTA 5.9 FTA

Garnett's minutes have stayed the same, Duncans have upped slightly. Per 40 numbers are also down alot for KG, Tims are nearly identical to his MVP seasons.

Id like to know what your basis is for saying Tim Duncan and Garnett are declining 'at the same rate'?

To keep the debate fair, Garnett for the first time last year in a Big Three environment and has readily admitted giving up some of his stats for Pierce and Allen...

[mystargtr34]

To keep the debate fair, Garnett for the first time last year in a Big Three environment and has readily admitted giving up some of his stats for Pierce and Allen...

Fair enough, Tim Duncan was pretty much a one man show in 2003, yet hes per 40 minute numbers are nearly identical now as they were then. The drop in numbers is more to do with a drop in minutes.

[z0sa]

To keep the debate fair, Garnett for the first time last year in a Big Three environment and has readily admitted giving up some of his stats for Pierce and Allen...

We've got a Big 3 as well, though the stats for this season are pretty weird to calculate with 2 of them injured for most of it.

[sandman]

We've got a Big 3 as well, though the stats for this season are pretty weird to calculate with 2 of them injured for most of it.

I was stating that for the majority of his career, Garnett carried a greater statistical burden for his teams because he didn't have any sidekicks.

His statistical decline last year is more attributed to his not having to do as much for the team to win as opposed to his decreased ability to do as much.

[Allanon]

Already off on your predictions. Not a poke, just curious why you picked us to lose to Memphis first thing? Cmon.

Unfortunately, with Manu back all bets are off on the predictions.

As for why, the Grizzlies played the Spurs very well last year and after a beatdown of the Jazz, I felt this was a trap game.

[Allanon]

------------07-08-----------------

Garnett -------------- Duncan
18.8 PPG ------------- 19.3 PPG
9.2 RPG -------------- 11.3 RPG
1.3 BPG --------------- 1.9 BPG
4.7 FTA --------------- 5.9 FTA


-------------08-09--------------

Garnett---------------- Duncan
16.1 PPG -------------- 22.4 PPG
8.7 RPG --------------- 10 RPG
1.1 BPG --------------- 1.5 BPG
2.3 FTA --------------- 5.9 FTA

Garnett's minutes have stayed the same, Duncans have upped slightly. Per 40 numbers are also down alot for KG, Tims are nearly identical to his MVP seasons.

Id like to know what your basis is for saying Tim Duncan and Garnett are declining 'at the same rate'?

Tim Duncan has been playing without Manu and then Tony for most of this season, his numbers will certainly be up. And at the same time, it's not much of a sample.

I don't think either has shown a real decline yet, both are still in their primes. This is why I said we'll know better in 3 years but at this moment, both are still ballin'.

[Allanon]

Disagree. KD uses athleticism. Duncan uses skills. Skills lasts. Legs don't. The only thing KD would still have that is in better than Duncan's at the end of their respective careers will be his ability to run his mouth off.

KG does use athleticism more than Duncan but I think KG can also adjust his game to a less athletic one since he does have a very good 15 foot game.

Conincidentally, both Duncan and KG will be free agents at age 35 so it will be interesting to see if either decides to retire. That should pretty much put an end to the NBA mileage debate one way or another.

[exstatic]

I was stating that for the majority of his career, Garnett carried a greater statistical burden for his teams because he didn't have any sidekicks.

I'm so tired of that lie. KG had Starbury, Brandon, Gugliotta, and Sczerbiak as All Star sidekicks when they played in Minnesota.

[sandman]

I'm so tired of that lie. KG had Starbury, Brandon, Gugliotta, and Sczerbiak as All Star sidekicks when they played in Minnesota.

Dude, I am not defending KG in any way, shape or form. He was given a chance with some decent teams and failed to get them over the hump.

My intent was as a rebuttal to someone saying that his stats slipped this last year because of his high mileage, but I felt it was more related to playing with players of the caliber of Allen and Pierce for the first time in his career. Those guys you mentioned from Minny were simply not as good, or not as consistently good, as Allen and Pierce.

Think of DRob's numbers after Duncan's rookie year. He was 32 when Timmy came into the league and willingly gave up his leadership position on the team. KG was 31 when he went to the C's and essentially did the same thing.

Our Big Three are in their 7th year together and that variable has been 'baked' into Duncan's stats for more than half his career. I have no doubt that he could have shouldered much more than he has had to in his career, but he hasn't needed to. So his stats won't decline as rapidly as the typical NBA player. That is to his advantage.

In my opinion, it was not KG that led the C's to the championship. That was Pierce's team. KG is more Pippen than Jordan. Not saying the he was riding coattails, but he doesn't get that ring without Pierce.

[MI21]

:lol @ the idea of Derrick Rose dominating the Spurs because it is in San Antonio and the Alamodome or whatever the fuck Allanon was going on about.

If he had of played exceptional, it would of been because he is a fantastic player. But never the less, all that extra motivation being in San Antonio really added up to a stellar performance against a #26 draft pick today...

[MI21]

What Final Four? Rose played possum when asked about his previous trip to San Antonio in April. His Memphis Tigers lost the NCAA championship game 75-68 in overtime to Kansas about five miles away from the AT & T Center at the Alamodome.

"I forgot all about that," Rose said. "I hadn't really thought about that. That was in the past, and we lost the game, so I hadn't really thought about it at all."

Looks like being back in SA really fired Rose up.

[Allanon]

:lol @ the idea of Derrick Rose dominating the Spurs because it is in San Antonio and the Alamodome or whatever the fuck Allanon was going on about.

If he had of played exceptional, it would of been because he is a fantastic player. But never the less, all that extra motivation being in San Antonio really added up to a stellar performance against a #26 draft pick today...

As I said in my 1st post, that assumed Manu would not be back. It's in the #2 post of this thread, read it for yourself :lol

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2921407&postcount=2

And once I found out Manu was back:
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2924164&postcount=54

[Trainwreck2100]

As I said in my 1st post, that assumed Manu would not be back. It's in the #2 post of this thread, read it for yourself :lol

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2921407&postcount=2

And once I found out Manu was back:
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2924164&postcount=54

and how did Manu in his 18 minutes make George hill outperform Derek Rose in this game. Maybe the reason hill is playing so good is cause he's mad his IUPI team didn't make the final four.

[Allanon]

and how did Manu in his 18 minutes make George hill outperform Derek Rose in this game. Maybe the reason hill is playing so good is cause he's mad his IUPI team didn't make the final four.

Manu is a force on the court, a game changer for the Spurs. Rose was doing well and the Bulls were winning until Manu happened.

I can't believe, a Laker fan (me) gives more respect to "Manu Muthaf******* Ginobili" than his own fans. :D

But don't just take my word for it, your own Spurs writer wrote about it:

Spurs' deficit gives Ginobili opportunity (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110905)
Halfway through the third quarter of their game at AT&T Center on Wednesday night, the Spurs found themselves nine points down to the Chicago Bulls and in need of a lift.

With just one full game and two full practices under his belt this season, Manu Ginobili deemed this a perfect opportunity.

In just two minutes and 49 seconds, Ginobili made two twisting layups, set up teammates for 3-point baskets, turned the deficit into a Spurs lead and convinced himself, once and for all time, that the September surgery that repaired a left ankle impingement had been a complete success.

[m33p0]

KG does use athleticism more than Duncan but I think KG can also adjust his game to a less athletic one since he does have a very good 15 foot game.

Conincidentally, both Duncan and KG will be free agents at age 35 so it will be interesting to see if either decides to retire. That should pretty much put an end to the NBA mileage debate one way or another.
What are you talking about? That's all he has!

[sandman]

Reading about how close both Manu and Tony are getting in their projected returns, and looking at the schedule over the next two weeks, does the team have a realistic shot at doing anything other than maintaining an even record going into the game @ Dallas?

Not that staying @ .500 is not a remarkable achievement for Timmy and The Scrubs, but it doesn't look like the schedule will do much more than allow them to tread water.

@MEM (MEM playing .500 at home)
CHI (Horrible road record)
MEM (Horrible road record)
@HOU (Barely played any home games)
DET (Good road record)
@DEN (Great home record)
GWS (Bad road record)

I am seeing this as lock for 3 losses (@ HOU because of B2B, DET and @DEN) with the game @MEM going either way. So either 10-9 or 9-10 going into the game against DAL, who seem like they have finally figured out how to play.

The last time they started a season at 9-10 was 2003-04, the infamous '.4' year. Granted, that team ended up winning 57 games that year, but they followed the 10-10 start with an 17-1 streak and finished the regular season on an 11 game win streak.

The Western Conference playoff bar is being set ~48 wins. With a much older team than 03-04 and a little bit of magic lost in the RRT this last year, if Manu and Tony take too much longer coming back, this team won't be able to survive in treading water mode.

Quoting myself in self-flagellation over my doubts that this team could get hot just as quickly as the 03-04 team. Granted, 13-3 is not the same as 17-1, but they did take control of the situation a lot earlier than I expected.

That being said, outside of roadies at NOLA and ORL, most of the games leading up to the Lakers at home in a month are easily in the Should Win category, potentially putting this team at 26-10 when they face off against LA. That would put them at almost the exact same record as the 03-04 team that recovered nicely from a rough start.