Blazers now among the elite?

[tlongII]

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-36-102/John-Hollinger---Portland---Thanksgiving.html

Thanksgiving weekend has been fantastic. The eating, the family, all those things we all count on ... I'm loving it.

But also, as a fan of the Portland Trail Blazers, it has also been a little bit like Christmas.

Why? Yes they have won nicely at home.

But more importantly ... Have you seen John Hollinger's power rankings?

(I have been aware of this for several days, but have not wanted to make a fuss out of it ... for fear it would later prove meaningless. But now it has been hanging around for a while, and I can't stay quiet.)

Not to oversimplify things. But more or less the current state of events -- from a supercomputer programmed by one of the savviest experts in the game today -- is that all of the many teams of the NBA are spread across a vast array of quality. The exceptionally crappy Thunder are off the deep end of the charts, but ignoring that, every single team in the NBA has a Hollinger Power Ranking that is arrayed somewhere between 90 and 103 on the Hollinger scale.

The ranking is built on strength of schedule, margin of victory, and various other factors that have proven, over time, to matter.

Ignore Hollinger at your peril.

In any case, what I haven't told you is that not all the teams are either OKC or between 90 and 103 on the scale. There are actually four super teams that co-exist in the ether above the spectrum of normalcy. They're all over 108.

And they matter. Between them, these four teams hog a 90.7% likelihood of winning this year's title in an extrapolation of the power rankings.

Who are the NBA's four elite teams, based on Hollinger's formulas and the early returns? With all the normal early season provisos, and in order, they are: the Los Angeles Lakers (36.8% chance of winning the title), the Cleveland Cavaliers (30%), the Boston Celtics (13%), and ... my Portland Trail Blazers (10.9%).

By any conventional measure, the Blazers are somewhere between so-so and pretty good. They're 11-6 just like Houston, Phoenix, and Denver. They're a half game ahead of Atlanta, about which I'm sure you are lukewarm. But Hollinger's computer knows Portland has played all kinds of tough teams, and they have had some big-time blowouts (thank you Miami and Chicago!) as well as quality wins against the likes of New Orleans, San Antonio, and Houston.

Portland is loaded down with so many weapons that many nights they can make big mistakes and still win.

Look, I'm not getting ahead of myself here. I realize that Portland still has flaws, and will not be winning a title this year.

But I'm also starting to realize that Portland's much-anticipated entry into the NBA's elite may be arriving well ahead of schedule. It couldn't be more exciting. As a fan who has been on the outside looking in for a decade and a half, it's a real thrill to be part of the Big Boy NBA conversation. Especially with a roster that features heavy minutes from three rookies (Rookie of the Year candidates Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez, as well as starter Nicolas Batum) and is built for three years from now.

Where does that leave us? With a lot to look forward to (if by "we" we mean "Portland fans"). Virtually every Blazer can be expected to get better over the course of the next two or three years. And yet, even now in its infancy this Portland roster is a profound threat to win every game it plays. It's a nice situation.

Unless, of course, you find yourself in the peculiar position of being both a national NBA blogger with a commitment to fairness and a dyed-in-the-wool Blazer fan. I have long feared the day when by Blazer fandom could cause profound and persisent objectivity problems for my NBA coverage.

That time is coming.

Please, bear with me.

[tlongII]

FYI - After today's beatdown of the Pistons in Detroit, we're now 12-6.

[ducks]

you wish

[tlongII]

you wish

Looks like my wish has been granted! :lol

[Obstructed_View]

Weren't the Blazers really good to start the season last year, too? They had a big long winning streak and ended up at .500, right?

[Ghazi]

Depends on elite definition. I wouldn't say so, not this year atleast. maybe in 1-2 years.

But I must say, it APPEARS the Blazers could be capable of getting a T4 seed. At beginning of year I though they would be a 7 or 8 seed at best.

[JamStone]

They're now up there with the Minnesota Timberwolves with that pounding of the Pistons at the Palace. Except the Timberwolves never let the Pistons make even a little comeback in their blowout.

[SpursDynasty]

No Portland is not elite. The rest of the West is just dealing with injuries at the moment. At around March/April, these joke teams that have jumped ahead of the injured teams in the West will be #6-8 seeds.

[Allanon]

I agree that the Blazers are in the Western Elite.

You could see it coming since last year.

One of my favorite teams to watch but they are not contenders.

[lil_penny]

Blazers playing great team basketball.. oden looked great today also btw.. lots of learning left in this season for the team though. a big win confidence wise. comming back above .500 on this road trip would be awesome. however i see knicks giving blazers some trouble for some odd reason. martells comeback will cause some trouble though and a bit of a log jam with batums playing great...

damn just realised the pistons have dropped 8 of the last 11 to the blazers at home.

[tlongII]

We're a threat to win the title this year. There isn't any doubt in my mind at all about that. We have all the pieces that make up a great team. The only thing we lack is experience which is over-rated, imo.

[Allanon]

The only thing we lack is experience which is over-rated, imo.

This is WHY they won't win the championship. They haven't experienced the Playoff losing that is required to become a Champion. Every championship team needs some losers to become a Champion.

They have all the talent needed, they just need to lose a couple times in the Playoffs to become contenders.

[lil_penny]

yea being experienced doesnt mean everything when the other team has a stronger will, pistons.. rockets.... spurs.. all pretty experienced if you ask me spurscan use the excuse card i guess being that they probably will with ginobli being injured that game.

[tlongII]

This is WHY they won't win the championship. They haven't experienced the Playoff losing that is required to become a Champion. Every championship team needs some losers to become a Champion.

They have all the talent needed, they just need to lose a couple times in the Playoffs to become contenders.

I disagree. If you are the better team you win. There's no need to experience playoff failure. All they have to do is win.

[Obstructed_View]

I disagree. If you are the better team you win. There's no need to experience playoff failure. All they have to do is win.

See game seven between the Spurs and Hornets last year for an example of experience helping one team.

[lil_penny]

oden also leading the blazers in double doubles this year in his limited playing time.

our bench sucked balls this game. but pistons starters did also so i guess we should be greatful

[tlongII]

I mean come on, are we serious here. Atlanta started off good this year too... so what! The Blazers are a fun little second tier team, right along with the Hornets, Suns, and the Jazz.

There is no team that has amassed the amount of talent that the Blazers have. Nobody. And that includes the Lakers and Celtics. The scary thing is that we're just getting better and better.

[Allanon]

I disagree. If you are the better team you win. There's no need to experience playoff failure. All they have to do is win.

I don't know of any Championship team that hasn't had Playoff failures.

Last year's Celtics was probably the biggest collection of big-time losers ever on one team. Just go back through the years and you'll see the losers on every Championship team.

This isn't the NFL where ANY team can win in any given year. It's the 7 game format that weeds out the one-hit wonders.

Just be glad the Blazers are fun to watch, a great bunch of guys, gaining experience, getting better and no longer called the JailBlazers. You should be happy that they'll probably lose in the first round, it's a great starting point. They'll be losers before they're winners, and that's not a shameful thing at all.

[tlongII]

See game seven between the Spurs and Hornets last year for an example of experience helping one team.

That "experience" doesn't appear to be helping the Hornets too much this year. :lol

[MrChug]

No.

[lil_penny]

how many other experienced players other than kobe and fish last year when going against the spurs? i think san antonio had more experience and it didnt show, lakers wiped them up and down the floor. like boston did to the lakers who had less finals experience then kobe and fish.... the better team wins. the team who wants it more gets it

[tlongII]

I don't know of any Championship team that hasn't had Playoff failures.

Last year's Celtics was probably the biggest collection of big-time losers ever on one team. Just go back through the years and you'll see the losers on every Championship team.

This isn't the NFL where ANY team can win in any given year. It's the 7 game format that weeds out the one-hit wonders.

Just be glad the Blazers are fun to watch, a great bunch of guys, gaining experience, getting better and no longer called the JailBlazers. You should be happy that they'll probably lose in the first round, it's a great starting point. They'll be losers before they're winners, and that's not a shameful thing at all.

Our championship in 77 was won by a team that had never been in the playoffs before. I can see the same thing happening again.

[MrChug]

There is no team that has amassed the amount of talent that the Blazers have. Nobody. And that includes the Lakers and Celtics. The scary thing is that we're just getting better and better.

Your Mom is pretty talented from what I hear.

[lil_penny]

77 blazers are still the youngest team to ever win the championship

[tlongII]

Are you insane??? The Lakers are more talented at every position except for that three position, and we proved that on opening day by bullying your little team. Since you were so excited to post Hollingers take on how good your team is, why dont you look at who is at the top of that list... thats right:toast

You got us on opening night. I'm looking forward to a return match.

[JamStone]

We're a threat to win the title this year. There isn't any doubt in my mind at all about that. We have all the pieces that make up a great team. The only thing we lack is experience which is over-rated, imo.


You basically guaranteed they would win it all last year around this time too when they went on that big win streak. Chill out. The Pistons are a mess right now. Don't overreact too much about the win. Really good win, but that doesn't make the Blazers a championship team.

Quick, tell me the last team to not even make the playoffs the year before and go on to win a title the following season...

[lil_penny]

oh and i take back my statement about the pistons being atop the eastern conference with boston.. they got lucky in L.A. caught the lakers on a off night detriot has done nothing special since then.. A.I. has ruined that team by himself.. was he even on the active roster today lol.. stuckey needs to step in now bring iverson off the bench or something haha

[JamStone]

I could be wrong, but Boston?


Lol, silly me. Boy, that was stupid of me.

Well, I amend my initial statement with: "...without a major trade for an established superstar or superstars" then.

[Obstructed_View]

That "experience" doesn't appear to be helping the Hornets too much this year. :lol

You misunderstand as usual. The experience belonged to the Spurs, which is why they stepped up to the pressure and the Hornets shrank from it.

[tlongII]

You basically guaranteed they would win it all last year around this time too when they went on that big win streak. Chill out. The Pistons are a mess right now. Don't overreact too much about the win. Really good win, but that doesn't make the Blazers a championship team.

Quick, tell me the last team to not even make the playoffs the year before and go on to win a title the following season...

Boston

[lil_penny]

i will be happy if the blazers make the playoffs.. im not trying to get too far ahead of myself like alot of people do with this team and others... i think depending on this season next year they should make a honest attempt at lebron, blazers have the finances i dont see why the shouldn't at least try

[tlongII]

i will be happy if the blazers make the playoffs.. im not trying to get too far ahead of myself like alot of people do with this team and others... i think depending on this season next year they should make a honest attempt at lebron, blazers have the finances i dont see why the shouldn't at least try

LeBron won't happen. We're set up to be a player in Free Agent market in 2009, not 2010. I'll be happy by just making the playoffs as well. However, I do think we can win the title now.

[Lakers_55]

Our championship in 77 was won by a team that had never been in the playoffs before. I can see the same thing happening again.

That was a strange year. As I recall it, portland dumped two superstars, Geoff Petrie and Sidney Wicks. Walton seemed to stay healthy the whole year. The term "Power forward" was probably coined for the play of Maurice Lucas, who you got in the ABA dispersal draft. You had Lionel Hollins and Dave Twardzik in the backcourt and could do little wrong once you were in gear.

If Portland wants a shot, they need to win their division. Otherwise, they will likely be a 5 to 8 seed and get bounced in round 1. Most experts agree, the future may be theirs, but enjoy this season anyway and see if they grow from it.

[Findog]

The Blazers have a promising future, but I don't see them beating the Lakers in the playoffs this year, which is what they'd have to do to reach the Finals.

[tlongII]

No chance at LB, you have to give Aldridge a max, Roy wants a max, you'll lose Outlaw next season, Blake will want an extension, and I think Webster is up too. They have some decisions to make.

We extended Martell earlier this year.

[tlongII]

The Blazers have a promising future, but I don't see them beating the Lakers in the playoffs this year, which is what they'd have to do to reach the Finals.

We would be the underdogs, that's for sure. I think we're the only team that has the tools to beat them with both teams fully healthy though.

[ducks]

will oden be healthy for playoffs?

[tlongII]

will oden be healthy for playoffs?

I sure hope so. Don't you?

[ducks]

well he has only played 40 games since highschool
so who knows

I hope he is if portland is even in the playoffs

[Anti.Hero]

lol elite.

[Findog]

We would be the underdogs, that's for sure. I think we're the only team that has the tools to beat them with both teams fully healthy though.

San Antonio, Utah and Boston are the only teams that have a shot to beat LA.

[tlongII]

San Antonio, Utah and Boston are the only teams that have a shot to beat LA.

No way. Those teams are too small if LA's at full strength.

[tlongII]

Houston might have a shot. I've never seen them fully healthy though.

[Ghazi]

Experience is not overrated. It is proven throughout NBA history that veterans win titles more often than players 25 and younger.

The Blazers are really talented, but they're not winning a title this year. Tlong, that's such a stupid statement.

They're still a poor road team IMO, they're not exceptional defensively, and they're a half court JUMP SHOOTING team that struggles mightily to accumulate paint points.

[Ghazi]

Regarding the Hollinger Rankings, these are the same rankings that have the Mavs are #6 right now. The Mavs sure as hell haven't played like the 6th best team in basketball thus far.

The Blazers are so high because of a 42 point and 38 point win, that's basically it.

[Findog]

Regarding the Hollinger Rankings, these are the same rankings that have the Mavs are #6 right now. The Mavs sure as hell haven't played like the 6th best team in basketball thus far.

Mavs at #6???? The Fuck????

Here's a list of teams that are inarguably better than the Mavs right now:

Lakers, Cavs, Celtics, Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Magic, okay I could end up listing half the teams in the league so I'll stop now...

[tlongII]

Experience is not overrated. It is proven throughout NBA history that veterans win titles more often than players 25 and younger.

The Blazers are really talented, but they're not winning a title this year. Tlong, that's such a stupid statement.

They're still a poor road team IMO, they're not exceptional defensively, and they're a half court JUMP SHOOTING team that struggles mightily to accumulate paint points.

They will be one of the top 3 defensive teams in the league by the end of the season. I can see it coming clearly. They have 2 shot-blocking 7-footers that make it very difficult for opposing teams to score inside against us. We also have Brandon Roy who will likely wind up as the greatest player ever to play in Portland. He is that good.

[IronMexican]

Tlong, remember that bet we made that if LA had a better record than Portland, you wouldn't post the whole playoffs?

[tlongII]

Tlong, remember that bet we made that if LA had a better record than Portland, you wouldn't post the whole playoffs?

Yep. Hopefully the Lakers will start losing some games. :lol

[Ghazi]

Mavs at #6???? The Fuck????

Here's a list of teams that are inarguably better than the Mavs right now:

Lakers, Cavs, Celtics, Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Magic, okay I could end up listing half the teams in the league so I'll stop now...


Agree w/ all of those except the Suns IMHO.

[turiaf for president]

another retarded thread by the op

[sexinthatsx]

If experience was overrated, New Orleans will NOT sign a MLE contract to James Posey. And I'm also pretty sure that other teams chased after James Posey for the same reasons New Orleans did... for playoff experience.

Also, one of the reasons that I hate the lakers the most but respect them the most is because their most experienced player is not kobe, or any other player for that matter with the exception of derek fisher. He was pretty much the one who pulled the lakers to championships.

[barbacoataco]

The Blazers do have unreal talent. The Lakers might have more at the top of the roster but the Blazers have talent from top to bottom. Just at SF alone they have Outlaw, Martell and Batum. Batum IMO is one of the top 5 rookies so far considering he is only 19 and has been starting and playing incredible defense. The Blazers will have a hard time getting minutes for all 3. Would the Spurs want Webster or Outlaw?

[tlongII]

The Blazers do have unreal talent. The Lakers might have more at the top of the roster but the Blazers have talent from top to bottom. Just at SF alone they have Outlaw, Martell and Batum. Batum IMO is one of the top 5 rookies so far considering he is only 19 and has been starting and playing incredible defense. The Blazers will have a hard time getting minutes for all 3. Would the Spurs want Webster or Outlaw?

I can easily see Outlaw getting traded. I don't think the Spurs have anything we want though.

[ElNono]

Portland needs to make the playoffs and win at least a couple of rounds before you can talk about elite... Sorry, but elite teams are not made in the regular season...

[Armando]

Lets see where they are come April and May.

[Spurtacus]

They will be one of the top 3 defensive teams in the league by the end of the season. I can see it coming clearly. They have 2 shot-blocking 7-footers that make it very difficult for opposing teams to score inside against us. We also have Brandon Roy who will likely wind up as the greatest player ever to play in Portland. He is that good.


Why am I not surprised to read that? You are assuming Oden stays healthy all season.

[21_Blessings]

Portland = 1st round exit.

Not elite.

[KidCongo]

LeBron won't happen. We're set up to be a player in Free Agent market in 2009, not 2010. I'll be happy by just making the playoffs as well. However, I do think we can win the title now.

An insider on a Cavs board believes the only place LB goes if he leaves the Cavs would be Portland. NYK isn't a possibility unless they make themselves into an ECF contender he says.

Still a long season to go and it comes down to the leadership of Roy and LMA.

[JordanL]

Portland needs to make the playoffs and win at least a couple of rounds before you can talk about elite... Sorry, but elite teams are not made in the regular season...

Sorry to be snide but...

Tell that to last years Hornets.

[ElNono]

Sorry to be snide but...

Tell that to last years Hornets.

They made it to the second round and played a tough 7 games series against the defending champs... I'd say they've earned their stripes in the playoffs to be considered elite... now, take the Rockets for a team that's an elite wannabe...
Now, which one is Portland? We'll see...

[Darthkiller]

Portland = 1st round exit.

Not elite.

not if they meet the rockets

[tlongII]

http://trailblazerscentercourt.blogspot.com/2008/11/this-is-starting-to-get-interesting.html

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_SOWbUWVhXHk/STMyTIDPKJI/AAAAAAAAARA/Pl6eF4w0C-I/s400/83862741_10.jpg

Sunday, November 30, 2008
This is starting to get interesting

It's hard to overstate how important it is to get a good start on a long road trip. A few weeks ago, a win going away in Orlando set the Trail Blazers up for what Nate McMillan has described as one of the best road trips of his tenure as Portland head coach. And now today, the Blazers, lead by the no-longer-slumping LaMarcus Aldridge, go into the Palace at Auburn Hills and get a 96-85 win against the Pistons to start this five-game east coast swing off right. Talk about your huge wins.

Aldridge took it to Rasheed Wallace, consider by many to be Aldridge's elder doppelganger, early and often, scoring 13 of his 27 points in the first quarter (the Pistons as a team only score 13 in the first). It's the third-consecutive game that the Blazers have come out and built a double-digit lead in the first period, and you can see how loose they play when they have success early.

The Pistons first unit was as bad (a combined -83) as the second unit was good. Guys like Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson got Detroit back into the game, but the Blazers, despite their youth, never panicked. They kept grinding it out and eventually went on to win by 11.

Brandon Roy, who continues to prove himself as one of the up and coming superstars in the NBA, finished with 19 points, 5 assists and 4 rebounds and described the effort better than I ever could.

Said Roy: “It was a good win for us. We’ve really struggled on the road against good teams this year but tonight we had a really good focus and we’re able to close the game. Even when they made a run to get the game close, we did a good job of staying together and getting what we wanted offensively. I think that is a sign of us maturing offensively, not a lot yet, but we are getting better."

And you can't talk about this game without mentioning Greg Oden. G.O. pulled down 8 rebounds in that all-important first quarter, eventually finishing with a career-high 13 boards and 11 points for another double-double. But more importantly, Oden finished the game +26, which was the second best +/- of all players behind Nic Batum. Batum also finished up a great effort with 7 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists in over 30 minutes, which is double his minutes per game average.

I've talked a lot during the podcasts about the Blazers winning the games they should win, but not yet having won the games that they shouldn't. Despite the recent success we've had in Detroit (save the beating they put on us in their house last season) I would not have penciled this game in as a win. But they got it, and to me, that's tangible proof that this team is well on their way to becoming an elite NBA squad.

By the way, that's four in a row

[tlongII]

http://mikebarrettsblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/blazers-dunk-pistons-to-start-trip.html

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_bt_AXr_u6rQ/STOPI330rMI/AAAAAAAABHI/ZpFCi8PyHD8/s400/odendet.jpg


Blazers Dunk Pistons to Start Trip

The key to a good road trip, as we always say, is getting off to a good start. And, particularly with a young team, getting off to a good start in a game is always a big key to getting a win. On Sunday, the Trail Blazers did both in Detroit. They outscored the Pistons 25-13 in the first quarter, lost the lead briefly in the fourth quarter, and then roared back to put the game away 96-85.

This probably goes without saying, but this was a very big win for the Trail Blazers. Any road win is a big, but it’s the timing of this win that makes it bigger than most. Not only did it come in the opening game of a 5-game trip, but came against a solid, elite team in the Eastern Conference.

The Blazers are now 5-0 against the east, 5-6 on the road, and 12-6 overall. You’re probably getting tired of this, but I’ll say it again- to have 12 wins after this point in this stretch of the schedule is fairly amazing.

Here’s something new. Leading into this game, it was Detroit saying that this contest would serve as a measuring stick for them. Rip Hamilton, among others, said that this was a chance for the Pistons to see where they’re at so far this season, as they knew it would be a big challenge. This sounds like a little thing, but that shows you how you’re being looked at around the league. Any win like this for the Blazers, in the last few years, has been seen simply as an “upset.” Not anymore.

Before the game, in our opening TV segment, we previewed the big matchup of the night- LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Rasheed Wallace. Everyone has spent time comparing the similarities between these two players, and Aldridge has always saved his best for this matchup. He got off to a blistering start in this game, scoring 13 of Portland’s first 25, and helped build a 14-point lead. Aldridge ended with 27 points, on 11 of 19 shooting. Wallace hit only one two-point field goal in the game, and ended with 11 points and one rebound.


Brandon Roy did his usual stuff in the second half, and was a big reason why the Trail Blazers were able to close the deal with a few minutes left in the game. Roy ended with 19 points, five assists, and four rebounds.


Perhaps the biggest story of the game was the play of Nicolas Batum. As big as his play was, the fact that he was given 31 minutes from Nate McMillan, was perhaps bigger. This seems to represent a bit of a change in philosophy about Batum, especially late in games. Bigger than his back-breaking bucket late in the fourth quarter, was the defense he played when he was shifted on to Detroit’s Rodney Stuckey. He also grabbed a career-high 7 rebounds.


Batum’s growth has been incredible, and he’s easily been the nicest individual surprise here early in the season. He not only got the late assignment on Stuckey, but also held Tayshaun Prince to 10 points, and only 8 field-goal attempts.

Also give credit to Greg Oden for controlling the middle in this game. He ended with 11 points, a career-high 13 rebounds, and blocked 3 shots. Between Oden and Batum, two rookies, they grabbed 20 rebounds in this game.


The Blazers also shot 52 percent for the game, improved to 9-2 when shooting over 45 percent, are now 10-1 when leading after the first quarter, and are 12-2 when holding their opponent below 100 points. Portland once again out rebounded an opponent, 35-29 this time, and had 23 assists on 36 made field goals.

We had an interesting time getting to New York on Sunday night. We thought the snow in Detroit could be a problem, but it was bad weather in New York that kept us grounded, and on the plane, in Detroit for about three hours. Then, following that long wait, we had 162 mph crosswinds for the flight to NY. It made for a very bumpy flight. This stuff used to bother me, but it doesn't anymore.


It didn't seem to bother the players (other than Shavlik Randolph- his position of choice is the fetal, usually on the floor). After they watched a tape of the game on the big screen, I heard a lot of laughter coming from their section of the plane. They were watching the movie Tropic Thunder. In a very accomodating move, the players turned on the Spanish subtitles, following a request from Sergio and Rudy, so they were able to easily follow the dialogue. It was probably one of those "you had to be there" moments, but it was actually pretty funny to see the slight delay between what was said on the screen, and their reaction to the subtitles moments later.


Thankfully, due to the early start in Detroit, we got into our hotel in Manhattan about the time we would have for a regular 7pm start. The team will practice on Monday, and then will get ready to take on the Knicks on Tuesday night

[sonic21]

how's batum playing?

[tlongII]

how's batum playing?

He's playing great. Easily the biggest surprise on the team.

[sonic21]

He's playing great. Easily the biggest surprise on the team.

i saw him play in europe, i'm still pissed he didn't end up with the spurs
F*#k houston