duncan228
12-04-2008, 03:19 AM
Western Conference Playoff Predictions (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-081204)
By Ric Bucher
Welcome to Rock/Hard Place Central, where picking the first eight seeds in the West means leaving out a quality team and presuming there will be no injuries or trades that will completely alter the landscape in the next four months. You know, like the Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer injuries impacted the Utah Jazz or Chauncey Billups going from Detroit to Denver did to the first 30 days of the season. So forget taking these prognostications with a grain of salt; invite the entire Morton family over.
This much is safe to say: Nobody's catching the Lakers in the west for the No. 1 seed -- Tuesday's toe-stub in Indy notwithstanding -- and the Northwest Division promises to be what the Southwest was last year with the Jazz, Nuggets and Blazers battling for the division title and the homecourt advantage that comes with it.
Two ways to look at the Jazz: they remain a lousy road team and already have a handful of dreadful losses (Wizards, Bobcats, Nets, Knicks) ... or they've been without Williams or Boozer for almost the entire month and were only one game behind Denver and Portland. I'm going with the latter and bequeathing them the No. 2 seed.
The Rockets take the suddenly moribund Southwest and third seed, having already proved that no matter how injury-prone or inconsistent they might be, coach Rick Adelman is too resourceful and has too many weapons not to win two out of every three games.
The Hornets are my fourth seed, based on nothing more than they're too talented to be this mediocre the entire season. But it's worth noting that they started 10-6 despite the cushiest of schedules with loads of days off. I'm going on the theory that if the players are tired of coach Byron Scott's voice, as is rumored, less practice time and more games is the perfect tonic.
That leaves the fifth seed to Denver and the sixth to Portland. Not to put any pressure on GM Kevin Pritchard, but reverse that order if he trades some of his young talent for a pressure-tested veteran who doesn't screw up their chemistry between now and January. Now comes the hardest part: picking between San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas for the last two seeds. I don't get the whole watch-out-for-the-Spurs-down-the-stretch theory. Robert Horry and Brent Barry are not walking through that door, people. They were exposed as not athletic enough last season and did little to change that (though Roger Mason has been a pleasant surprise). Whatever wear-and-tear Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker were spared by being injured went on Tim Duncan's bill carrying the load in their absence. But they're a single-minded group that wins the games they're supposed to and steals a few they shouldn't. Put them down as No. 7.
Phoenix is the unhappiest 11-8 team I've ever seen, but they've got the raw talent to be as versatile as any offense in the league. They just need coach Terry Porter to stop beating the defensive drum long enough to recognize it. (That, and for Amare Stoudemire to recognize that the Suns can't play up-tempo AND make him The Man. He's at his best when Phoenix goes up-tempo, but that means the ball goes to whoever is open on the break, not consistently looking for one guy. Wanting both makes no sense.)
So give the Suns the eighth seed and put Dallas, whose recent surge has been against the league's bottom feeders, on the outside looking in.
And you can take that to the bank -- only because, as we know, banks aren't what they used to be.
By Ric Bucher
Welcome to Rock/Hard Place Central, where picking the first eight seeds in the West means leaving out a quality team and presuming there will be no injuries or trades that will completely alter the landscape in the next four months. You know, like the Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer injuries impacted the Utah Jazz or Chauncey Billups going from Detroit to Denver did to the first 30 days of the season. So forget taking these prognostications with a grain of salt; invite the entire Morton family over.
This much is safe to say: Nobody's catching the Lakers in the west for the No. 1 seed -- Tuesday's toe-stub in Indy notwithstanding -- and the Northwest Division promises to be what the Southwest was last year with the Jazz, Nuggets and Blazers battling for the division title and the homecourt advantage that comes with it.
Two ways to look at the Jazz: they remain a lousy road team and already have a handful of dreadful losses (Wizards, Bobcats, Nets, Knicks) ... or they've been without Williams or Boozer for almost the entire month and were only one game behind Denver and Portland. I'm going with the latter and bequeathing them the No. 2 seed.
The Rockets take the suddenly moribund Southwest and third seed, having already proved that no matter how injury-prone or inconsistent they might be, coach Rick Adelman is too resourceful and has too many weapons not to win two out of every three games.
The Hornets are my fourth seed, based on nothing more than they're too talented to be this mediocre the entire season. But it's worth noting that they started 10-6 despite the cushiest of schedules with loads of days off. I'm going on the theory that if the players are tired of coach Byron Scott's voice, as is rumored, less practice time and more games is the perfect tonic.
That leaves the fifth seed to Denver and the sixth to Portland. Not to put any pressure on GM Kevin Pritchard, but reverse that order if he trades some of his young talent for a pressure-tested veteran who doesn't screw up their chemistry between now and January. Now comes the hardest part: picking between San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas for the last two seeds. I don't get the whole watch-out-for-the-Spurs-down-the-stretch theory. Robert Horry and Brent Barry are not walking through that door, people. They were exposed as not athletic enough last season and did little to change that (though Roger Mason has been a pleasant surprise). Whatever wear-and-tear Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker were spared by being injured went on Tim Duncan's bill carrying the load in their absence. But they're a single-minded group that wins the games they're supposed to and steals a few they shouldn't. Put them down as No. 7.
Phoenix is the unhappiest 11-8 team I've ever seen, but they've got the raw talent to be as versatile as any offense in the league. They just need coach Terry Porter to stop beating the defensive drum long enough to recognize it. (That, and for Amare Stoudemire to recognize that the Suns can't play up-tempo AND make him The Man. He's at his best when Phoenix goes up-tempo, but that means the ball goes to whoever is open on the break, not consistently looking for one guy. Wanting both makes no sense.)
So give the Suns the eighth seed and put Dallas, whose recent surge has been against the league's bottom feeders, on the outside looking in.
And you can take that to the bank -- only because, as we know, banks aren't what they used to be.