duncan228
12-04-2008, 02:23 PM
Why points are at more of a premium this season (http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8887796/Why-points-are-at-more-of-a-premium-this-season)
by Randy Hill
The LeBron-Sir Charles debates have diverted our focus away from a potential NBA crisis.
Despite the best efforts of Mike D'Antoni, scoring is down this season and the tempo has diminished.
But let not your eight-seam heart be troubled. Our quarter-post, statistical nightmare reveals that scoring is down an average of about two points per game, while the pace is off by two whole possessions (per 48 minutes). While that may seem reasonable, it represents a radical change because NBA coaches prefer to control as many offensive variables as possible.
They are motivated to do so because their job security is rotten, highly paid players are highly paid for a reason and the 24-second clock almost kills the efficacy in using a continuity (read "share the wealth") offense. But seizing control doesn't preclude an NBA coach from attempting to win by copying what works.
And this season's target for emulation is the Boston Celtics.
Unfortunately, most coaches didn't show up for camp and find that two future Hall of Famers — like Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen — had been hired in the offseason. So, instead of whining about not having three Springfield-bound hotshots on their roster, more than a few coaches decided to copy another aspect of the Celtics' championship run.
That's right, we've noticed an increase in (relative) defensive commitment. It should be noted that Boston assistant coach Tom Thibodeau didn't invent the Pack-line system of helping early and often, jamming the lane or attacking ball screens. The San Antonio Spurs, for example, have been mixing up their ball-screen defensive tactics (soft show, hard show, trap the dribbler) during playoff games for years.
But, with the assistance of KG's influence as a defensive coordinator on the floor, Thibodeau created a defensive game plan his team could believe in.
Quite a few NBA coaches are attempting to believe in better defense, too. "Defense wins championships" is not just a pithy battle cry anymore. Through about 25 percent of the regular-season schedule, only three teams have an offensive rating of 110 (points per 100 possessions) or above.
The league average is only slightly higher this season than last, but 11 teams finished at 110 or above during the 2007-2008 campaign.
Although D'Antoni is attempting to restore the credibility of his seven-seconds-or-less approach in New York and Don Nelson is alive (if not all that well in the standings) in Oakland, many teams have made down-shifted adjustments in pace.
Some of the most profound changes have been undertaken in Denver, where veteran coach George Karl had gone faster (with his interpretation of Vance Wahlberg's now-called Dribble-Drive Motion) just two years ago.
In camp this year, George returned to his Seattle grinder days by insisting on an upgrade in defensive focus. The players talked a good game, but Karl and his bosses quickly decided that playing a bit slower and emphasizing defense meant shipping Allen Iverson was a good idea. With Chauncey Billups — a bit slower these days, but more equipped to run a a modestly pace offense — coming in return, Denver has flourished in the win-loss stat line.
Overall, the Nuggets' offensive rating is down about three points (from 110), the defensive rating has improved by almost four points (down from 106 per 100 possessions) and their league-leading pace of 2007-2008 has slowed from 99.7 to 94.6 possessions per game.
Now that D'Antoni is out of Phoenix, first-year Suns coach Terry Porter has all but pulled the plug on that fast tempo. Sure, the Suns — like all NBA teams — will take the opportunity break off of turnovers or long rebounds. But with Steve Nash now walking the ball upcourt after an opponent scores, Phoenix is averaging five fewer possessions per 48 minutes than last season.
Despite Porter's mandate for better defense, the Suns' 108 rating on defense is the same as last season.
Their old coach certainly has juiced the pace in New York, where the Knicks have gone from 15th in the league (91.6) last season to a league-leading 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes this season. The defensive efficiency remains weak, but it has improved about two points from the final run of Isiah Thomas.
With owners, fans and media watchdogs refusing to buy into the notion that how you play the game is more important than winning and losing, coaches still realize one can remain dependent upon the other.
This may be the best reason why the Memphis Grizzlies have offered a big tempo change in the second season of former D'Antoni assistant Marc Iavaroni. Just a few months removed from his work in Phoenix, Iavaroni installed a system that enabled the Grizzlies to play at the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA last season.
Unfortunately, Iavaroni didn't have Nash handling the ball, Shawn Marion or Leandro Barbosa filling lanes or Amare Stoudemire working the screen-roll as trailer. Memphis, which lost 60 games, has decreased its tempo by three possessions per game this season.
Another big swing has occurred in Dallas, where former Spurs point guard Avery Johnson had succeeded in gearing down from Nelson's pace, and even convinced the Mavericks to play a little defense.
With Avery now gone and Rick Carlisle — not exactly known for urging his players to really get out and run on offense — in his seat, Dallas has picked up its pace by three possessions per game.
Along with having a full season with push-man Jason Kidd, this number might be explained by Carlisle breaking personal history to do whatever is necessary to succeed.
But things might look more promising if someone could get LeBron James talking about suiting up for a team in Texas. This suggests that while stats can be used to explain certain facets of NBA failure and success, the most important number may correspond to cap room.
by Randy Hill
The LeBron-Sir Charles debates have diverted our focus away from a potential NBA crisis.
Despite the best efforts of Mike D'Antoni, scoring is down this season and the tempo has diminished.
But let not your eight-seam heart be troubled. Our quarter-post, statistical nightmare reveals that scoring is down an average of about two points per game, while the pace is off by two whole possessions (per 48 minutes). While that may seem reasonable, it represents a radical change because NBA coaches prefer to control as many offensive variables as possible.
They are motivated to do so because their job security is rotten, highly paid players are highly paid for a reason and the 24-second clock almost kills the efficacy in using a continuity (read "share the wealth") offense. But seizing control doesn't preclude an NBA coach from attempting to win by copying what works.
And this season's target for emulation is the Boston Celtics.
Unfortunately, most coaches didn't show up for camp and find that two future Hall of Famers — like Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen — had been hired in the offseason. So, instead of whining about not having three Springfield-bound hotshots on their roster, more than a few coaches decided to copy another aspect of the Celtics' championship run.
That's right, we've noticed an increase in (relative) defensive commitment. It should be noted that Boston assistant coach Tom Thibodeau didn't invent the Pack-line system of helping early and often, jamming the lane or attacking ball screens. The San Antonio Spurs, for example, have been mixing up their ball-screen defensive tactics (soft show, hard show, trap the dribbler) during playoff games for years.
But, with the assistance of KG's influence as a defensive coordinator on the floor, Thibodeau created a defensive game plan his team could believe in.
Quite a few NBA coaches are attempting to believe in better defense, too. "Defense wins championships" is not just a pithy battle cry anymore. Through about 25 percent of the regular-season schedule, only three teams have an offensive rating of 110 (points per 100 possessions) or above.
The league average is only slightly higher this season than last, but 11 teams finished at 110 or above during the 2007-2008 campaign.
Although D'Antoni is attempting to restore the credibility of his seven-seconds-or-less approach in New York and Don Nelson is alive (if not all that well in the standings) in Oakland, many teams have made down-shifted adjustments in pace.
Some of the most profound changes have been undertaken in Denver, where veteran coach George Karl had gone faster (with his interpretation of Vance Wahlberg's now-called Dribble-Drive Motion) just two years ago.
In camp this year, George returned to his Seattle grinder days by insisting on an upgrade in defensive focus. The players talked a good game, but Karl and his bosses quickly decided that playing a bit slower and emphasizing defense meant shipping Allen Iverson was a good idea. With Chauncey Billups — a bit slower these days, but more equipped to run a a modestly pace offense — coming in return, Denver has flourished in the win-loss stat line.
Overall, the Nuggets' offensive rating is down about three points (from 110), the defensive rating has improved by almost four points (down from 106 per 100 possessions) and their league-leading pace of 2007-2008 has slowed from 99.7 to 94.6 possessions per game.
Now that D'Antoni is out of Phoenix, first-year Suns coach Terry Porter has all but pulled the plug on that fast tempo. Sure, the Suns — like all NBA teams — will take the opportunity break off of turnovers or long rebounds. But with Steve Nash now walking the ball upcourt after an opponent scores, Phoenix is averaging five fewer possessions per 48 minutes than last season.
Despite Porter's mandate for better defense, the Suns' 108 rating on defense is the same as last season.
Their old coach certainly has juiced the pace in New York, where the Knicks have gone from 15th in the league (91.6) last season to a league-leading 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes this season. The defensive efficiency remains weak, but it has improved about two points from the final run of Isiah Thomas.
With owners, fans and media watchdogs refusing to buy into the notion that how you play the game is more important than winning and losing, coaches still realize one can remain dependent upon the other.
This may be the best reason why the Memphis Grizzlies have offered a big tempo change in the second season of former D'Antoni assistant Marc Iavaroni. Just a few months removed from his work in Phoenix, Iavaroni installed a system that enabled the Grizzlies to play at the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA last season.
Unfortunately, Iavaroni didn't have Nash handling the ball, Shawn Marion or Leandro Barbosa filling lanes or Amare Stoudemire working the screen-roll as trailer. Memphis, which lost 60 games, has decreased its tempo by three possessions per game this season.
Another big swing has occurred in Dallas, where former Spurs point guard Avery Johnson had succeeded in gearing down from Nelson's pace, and even convinced the Mavericks to play a little defense.
With Avery now gone and Rick Carlisle — not exactly known for urging his players to really get out and run on offense — in his seat, Dallas has picked up its pace by three possessions per game.
Along with having a full season with push-man Jason Kidd, this number might be explained by Carlisle breaking personal history to do whatever is necessary to succeed.
But things might look more promising if someone could get LeBron James talking about suiting up for a team in Texas. This suggests that while stats can be used to explain certain facets of NBA failure and success, the most important number may correspond to cap room.