Odd Man Out: Which Western Conference Team Will Miss The Postseason?

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Roughly 20 games into the season and it's apparent in the Western conference that there will be nine teams with a realistic chance of making the playoffs. While the East has improved somewhat, and it's possible that the league's two best records may ultimately emerge from that conference, the East is still looking like it will send at least one, and possibly two or more teams into the post season with a losing record.

Out West, however, if the nine teams in contention for a playoff spot can stay healthy enough to compete, we're likely to see a situation in '08-'09 similar to last season where a very good team will be watching the playoffs from home.

So of the nine teams with realistic playoff possibilities out West, which one is going to be paying more attention to the draft lottery than the playoffs this year?

Team W-L Pct.
L.A. Lakers 17 2 0.895
Portland 15 7 0.682
Denver 14 7 0.667
Houston 13 7 0.650
New Orleans 11 6 0.647
Utah 13 9 0.591
Dallas 11 8 0.579
San Antonio 11 8 0.579
Phoenix 12 9 0.571

I'm going to bet that San Antonio will continue to improve enough to gain a solid Western conference seed. New Orleans seems too talented, and I'd bet they'll be in...same for Utah. Portland, while very young is playing extremely well.

Phoenix appears somewhat vulnerable this year, in spite of the fact that I love Terry Porter as coach. Dallas' recent success is predicated on a backup point guard. I'm guessing teams will figure out Dallas' latest lineup wrinkle and they'll come back down to earth. Houston is talented enough to win in the regular season even if one of their big guns goes down, but is can they win enough to make the Western playoffs.

I'm going to predict Dallas as the team most likely to be on the outside looking in when the season ends, with Phoenix as the second possibility. But I think the competition to make the playoffs will lead to some pretty good records down the stretch by the 5-8 Western conference seeds, which I think will translate into a 48 win team in the West being denied the post season.

[urunobili]

1) Los Angeles
2) SAn Antonio
3) Portland
4) New Orleans
5) Houston
6) Denver
7) Utah
8) Dallas

[Allanon]

the East is still looking like it will send at least one, and possibly two or more teams into the post season with a losing record.

So much for all the Hoopla about the East being stronger than the West this year.

[honestfool84]

i actually think the lakers are going to miss the playoffs this year.



:lol

[superbigtime]

Phoenix isn't going to make it.

[Spurs Brazil]

Phoenix isn't going to make it.

Agree

[spursfaninla]

I think Phoenix needs Shaq to play significant minutes with regularity this year, and it is doubtful that he will play most of the season. In addition, Nash should start to show his age.

While it is true that Amare is putting up monster numbers, and they seem to get good production from Barnes and Barbosa, I just don't think they have the right pieces to play the D they need to.

Dallas, well we shall see. Kidd is pretty old to be a central piece to the pie for them. But they have enough talent to keep up for the 8th spot.

Den and PORT are young, good teams that should be middle of the pack, but someone has to get the 3rd seed. Utah has had some injury problems, not sure how those will go, but assuming they will recover and not linger.

I think we have a chance to crack the top 4, but it will be difficult. If Houston has sustained injuries (which they seem prone to), I think we can overtake them. NO is having problems, but they are very talented, and should stay near the top.

1 LA
2 NO
3 Port
4 SA
5 Utah
6 HOU
7 DEN
8 DAL

[honestfool84]

in all honesty, i never seem to look at the standings till march.


i can't say that i have looked at the standings yet this year..

[Bruno]

Suns.

[Rummpd]

It will be Denver or Portland who will lose out in a numbers game. Not buying into Denver yet, and Portland may be a year away still.

[tlongII]

I think it will be San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix fighting for the final 2 spots to get into the playoffs. The Spurs are good when healthy, but I just can't see them getting through the rest of the season injury-free. Duncan has played too many minutes and I'm afraid it will catch up to him around March.

[urunobili]

I think it will be San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix fighting for the final 2 spots to get into the playoffs. The Spurs are good when healthy, but I just can't see them getting through the rest of the season injury-free. Duncan has played too many minutes and I'm afraid it will catch up to him around March.

careful with your own wishes materializing in your house... wishing someone to get injured? lame... ban worthy actually...

[honestfool84]

I think it will be San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix fighting for the final 2 spots to get into the playoffs. The Spurs are good when healthy, but I just can't see them getting through the rest of the season injury-free. Duncan has played too many minutes and I'm afraid it will catch up to him around March.


the blazers are just OK when healthy.

they're just beating the teams they're supposed to beat.
the only notable teams they've beaten this year have been the hornets, pistons, rockets, and spurs.

i wouldn't proclaim them the next great thing till they've actually proven something.

[Baseline]

I think it will be Denver or Phoenix.

I don't see Kenyon Martin and Nene staying healthy all year, and if either of them goes down, it leaves Denver very exposed in the paint. They no longer have Camby to erase defensive mistakes. It's great to see them healthy and playing well, but I don't think it will last. Even if they stay healthy, they have such knuckleheads on that team that it could self-destruct at any moment. Lots of talent, but too combustible.

Phoenix might squeak in, but they just don't have the same firepower - Nash, Grant Hill, and Raja are all older, and another big issue is that Barbosa can't bring the same energy off the bench in a half-court game. Add Amare's disgruntledness on top of it all, and you have a recipe for disaster. And if Shaq were to go down, it leaves them thin in the paint.

I hate it for Kerr, but his gamble on Shaquille is not working out.

Dallas would be my third pick to miss the playoffs, because if Dirk or Terry goes down, they don't have Stackhouse there to pick up the scoring slack as he has in past years. Plus, Josh Howard is an idiot who is also somewhat injury-prone. He has already missed games this year, so count on him to sit out more as the year rolls on.

[honestfool84]

so count on him to sit out more as the year rolls on.


you say that as if players are required to miss because of injury.

[Sean Cagney]

I think it will be San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix fighting for the final 2 spots to get into the playoffs. The Spurs are good when healthy, but I just can't see them getting through the rest of the season injury-free. Duncan has played too many minutes and I'm afraid it will catch up to him around March.
I can't see them not making it either, but if they stay healthy and keep improving that 8th slot they are will be much higher come playoff time, period end of story. They are too good to stay at #8 while at 100%, team is too talented to be an 8th seed if they keep playing the way the have.

[dirk4mvp]

careful with your own wishes materializing in your house... wishing someone to get injured? lame... ban worthy actually...


He wished injury on someone? :wtf

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

With how tight the SW division is looking it's probably going to be some unlucky team in there. I'm leaning towards the Mavs, but I'm not ruling out the Hornets either.

Houston and San Antonio have had to fight early injury problems and adjusting to new faces and have done well enough in that time. Houston in particular has looked at times ever better without McGrady thanks to younger role players coming into their own. If Yao doesn't go down with a season ending injury I think they'll hang on to a spot.

San Antonio's new pieces have caught on with incredible speed and now that they are healthy I see them going up, not down.

The Mavs have a new coach, a new system, and I think that Josh Howard is a disaster waiting to happen. Hell, they've actually looked a good deal better with him out of the line up. This isn't a team that has handled adversity terribly well in past seasons and I think they have some more coming their way.

The reason I throw New Orleans in the mix is that the other three teams in mentioned all have significant pieces they were either working in or missing for big parts of the season thus far. NO pretty much came back unchanged (they got James Posey, I don't think that shifts their world on its axis) and has been generally healthy thus far. And yet they haven't been able to create any real separation given that opportunity. The other three division rivals have all shown signs that their best basketball is yet to come and the Hornets have some guys who are no strangers to the IR either.

[td4mvp21]

He wished injury on someone? :wtf

Apparently stating one's concern over the health of a team equals wishing injury on them.

[Darthkiller]

A team with Amare, Grant Hill , SHaq Oneal and steve nash doesnt make the playoff ? You are joking.

It will be either denver or dallas. Most likely be denver, i know they are playing out of their minds right now, they are starting to cool off. Chauncey plays well in some stretchs and then turns into shit in some stretchs. denver had pretty bad bench too , Nene is very injury prone, they will struggle if Nene goes out.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I should have considered Denver considering their propensity to cool towards the end of the season. Billups is the x-factor this year, though. He might help them keep up their intensity this year.

I'm going to stick with Dallas I think.

[tlongII]

careful with your own wishes materializing in your house... wishing someone to get injured? lame... ban worthy actually...

Reading is fundamental.

[The Franchise]

I think it will be Phoenix only because the players are starting to revolt already.

[Frenchise player]

Hard to predict anything since there will probably have one or two big trades that will shake the hierarchy (Camby already wants out).

Right now, I will say the Suns but last week it was Dallas and one month ago it was Denver.
There are few certainties:
The Lakers are in.
Portland and Utah are young and deep teams that are build to hold in case of injuries. I can't see either missing the playoffs even though I don't think they can go further than the 2nd round.
The Spurs and Rockets are experienced with two very good coaches and a defensive minded philosophy. This should prevent them from slumping.

To my mind the 4 last teams seems the most at risk.
Denver has been great with Billups but their frontcourt depth must be a concern, I don't think that Chris Andersen is a quality substitute. Also, Anthony has still to prove that he can be a leader, one big reason the trade has worked so well for them is that Billups provides not only good play at PG but also good leadership.
New Orleans seems too good to miss the playoffs but I really wonder if they weren't a bit over their heads last year. West had a carreer year and his stats have gone a little bit down (especially his rebounds from 8,9 to 6,9), Stojakovic and Chandler are also having a bad start. I know that Chris Paul is mighty good but you have to wonder if they aren't more fragile than we supposed.
Dallas barely got in last year and you have to consider the Kidd trade a disaster for now, not sure what to expect from them besides Nowitzki. They are a prime candidate for a trade, you have to think that Cuban wants to shake things of because they have no shot for a title.
Phoenix is the weak link right now. Poor chemistry, bad defense, first year coach... They still have a lot of talent but they have lost their soul and need to find out what they want to do with Amare.

[sonic21]

Suns

[Xylus]

We shall see, SpursTalk, we shall see!:ihit

[barbacoataco]

Amare looks like he has decided to go for individual stats over team success. That is bad for the Suns. If Denver and Portland continue the good play it will be interesting. If Phoenix or New Orleans doesn't make the playoffs that would be pretty shocking given their rosters and talent.
If i were betting I'd say Denver, but that's just based on past performance.

[tomtom]

my gut says suns

[The Truth #6]

Suns, Dallas, and Denver all seem to have issues with chemistry and cohesion. Any one of them could miss out. And, it's not like they would have to have a bad season to get left out. Like last year, the separation between the teams could be very small.

[peskypesky]

Portland

edit:
Damn, I didn't realize how well Portland's been playing. So I have to change my answer.

Dallas.

[exstatic]

Phoenix. They're all whining and not buying into the regular octane offense/defense required by Porter.

[itzsoweezee]

dallas

[J.T.]

careful with your own wishes materializing in your house... wishing someone to get injured? lame... ban worthy actually...

Dude, I wish injuries on people all the time and I never get banned. Don't try to be the forum police just because you're too chicken to admit you scream "hell yeah" anytime Dirk, Kobe, T-Mac, etc. hurt themselves.

[timtonymanu]

A team with Amare, Grant Hill , SHaq Oneal and steve nash doesnt make the playoff ? You are joking.


three old guys past their prime (Nash has also) and a young player that wants out of his coach's style. i dont think that's playoff worthy.

[Ghazi]

I'm thinking the Suns. Amare cares more about stats than winning, Nash/Shaq are old and disgruntled with their system... their bench isn't very good at all... Shaq is also due to miss more games and decline productivity wise.

They're 12-9 and this is with Shaq playing well.

[1Parker1]

I'm going to go with with Denver and possibily Dallas. Denver is one injury away from Nene/KMart from becoming a lotto team. And considering those two's propensity for injury, it's highly possible.

[urunobili]

Dude, I wish injuries on people all the time and I never get banned. Don't try to be the forum police just because you're too chicken to admit you scream "hell yeah" anytime Dirk, Kobe, T-Mac, etc. hurt themselves.

I aint no forum police but thanks for the remark.. i wonder where my post involved YOU?

:nope

[mrspurs]

It will be Denver or Portland who will lose out in a numbers game. Not buying into Denver yet, and Portland may be a year away still.

Thats my guessing as well.

[mrspurs]

Forum police? lol...... join a real police department.

[Indazone]

I think Phoenix needs Shaq to play significant minutes with regularity this year, and it is doubtful that he will play most of the season. In addition, Nash should start to show his age.

While it is true that Amare is putting up monster numbers, and they seem to get good production from Barnes and Barbosa, I just don't think they have the right pieces to play the D they need to.

Dallas, well we shall see. Kidd is pretty old to be a central piece to the pie for them. But they have enough talent to keep up for the 8th spot.

Den and PORT are young, good teams that should be middle of the pack, but someone has to get the 3rd seed. Utah has had some injury problems, not sure how those will go, but assuming they will recover and not linger.

I think we have a chance to crack the top 4, but it will be difficult. If Houston has sustained injuries (which they seem prone to), I think we can overtake them. NO is having problems, but they are very talented, and should stay near the top.

1 LA
2 NO
3 Port
4 SA
5 Utah
6 HOU
7 DEN
8 DAL

Phoenix could still salvage their season by firing Porter and bring in JVG.

[urunobili]

Phoenix could still salvage their season by firing Porter and bring in JVG.

that's the only Defensive coach with experience out there that could take them over the hump...

Thiebbodeau.. i may be wrong but i think he never was "the man"...

[Indazone]

Van Gundy is an Ass but that Phoenix team needs some ass kicking at least for one or two seasons. JVG will always be a journeyman coach like Larry Brown. His attitude sucks with his players but I will never forget his dubbing of Phil Jackson as "Big Chief Triangle" lol.

I did find this very nice blurb on him while at the Knicks to give people insight as to what a dick he was and probably still is. His best job is yes as the ESPN announcer.

Yes, some Knicks (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/New_York_Knicks/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) object to the way Van Gundy micromanages the offense and plays favorites, but even they respect his work ethic and attention to detail and rigid adherence to defensive principles. Also, says Sprewell, "Jeff understands personnel; he recognizes strengths and weaknesses. It's tough to juggle minutes, but you don't hear as much bitching on this team as you do on others."
If some still can't resist categorizing him as a cola-swilling, junk-food-loving, ankle-nipping schlemiel, they're missing the essence of Van Gundy—that he is, in fact, fearless. In 1996-97, when nobody wanted to provoke Jackson (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/Stu_Jackson/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) and the mighty Bulls (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/Chicago_Bulls/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm), Van Gundy mockingly called the Chicago (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/Chicago_Bulls/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) coach Big Chief Triangle. A year later, when opponents seemed more interested in kissing Michael Jordan (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/Michael_Jordan/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm)'s four NBA (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/National_Basketball_Association/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) championship rings than in beating him, a disgusted Van Gundy called Jordan (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/Michael_Jordan/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) "a con man." After scoring 51 on the Knicks (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/New_York_Knicks/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) the next time they met, Jordan (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/Michael_Jordan/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) walked past him and snapped, "Calm down, you little f—-."
Van Gundy didn't care how it played with the public. He never has. When guard John Starks (http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/topic/article/John_Starks/1900-01-01/2100-12-31/mdd/index.htm) questioned Van Gundy's play calling in a huddle later that season, Van Gundy lit into him for all to hear. "F—- you!" he yelled. "F—- you! F—- you! F—- you! F—- you!"

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1020846/2/index.htm

[SpursIndonesia]

Portland, teams will be more prepared against them as the season goes by.