duncan228
12-13-2008, 10:25 PM
An early look at MVP race shows LeBron in front (http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/spurs/An_early_look_at_MVP_race_shows_LeBron_in_front.ht ml)
Mike Monroe
It doesn't seem possible that the first quarter of the NBA season has come and gone, but by Saturday morning, all but one of the 30 teams had played between 20 and 25 games.
In an 82-game season, this is as close as you get to the quarter pole.
Here is what we think we know at an arbitrarily chosen checkpoint:
•The Celtics, who don't seem to miss James Posey much, were no one-season wonder.
•The Hornets are discovering the difficulty of going from elite level to legitimate title contender.
•The Spurs aren't the Spurs without at least two healthy members of their Big Three.
•The Lakers won't win 70 games.
•A soft economy makes owners impatient with failure.
•All those teams lining up to make a run at LeBron James in 2010 are on to something.
James is way out front in the race to be this season's Most Valuable Player.
There is still an argument to be made that Kobe Bryant, the reigning MVP, is the league's best player. He is certainly the one any coach wants taking a game-winning shot.
He is not, however, 6-foot-9 and 240 pounds.
James dominates with both skill and physicality, and now he has begun to assert himself at both ends. He is getting steals and blocks and stops.
I ran the numbers I consider meaningful on the players in the MVP conversation, applying the formula Larry Bird devised in the 1980s to advise MVP voters when he and Magic Johnson were the top candidates nearly every season. Bird believed adding points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, subtracting missed shots, missed free throws and turnovers, then dividing the sum by games played produced a measure of true value.
Here are Bird formula figures for the players I believe to be in the MVP race, through Saturday: Chris Paul (30.9), James (29.0), Dwyane Wade (28.5), Chris Bosh (26.5), Tim Duncan (25.5), Kobe Bryant (22.5), Chauncey Billups (Denver only, 20.3), Paul Pierce (18.2) and Kevin Garnett (17.6).
Numbers tell only part of the story. There are other factors when considering players' relative value.
Paul may have the highest number, but the Hornets have been a bit of a disappointment thus far. Coming off their Southwest Division title season, they have underachieved a bit.
The Lakers are off to a great start, but Bryant's production is down from his MVP season.
Wade leads the league in scoring, and his average points, rebounds and assists per game have been equaled in the past only by Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson. But he understands the Heat will need a better winning percentage if he is to have a shot at MVP.
Bosh, the league's No. 3 scorer, is on a team that already felt the need to dismiss its coach.
Which of the Celtics is most valuable for the team that has the league's best record, Garnett or Pierce?
Duncan has been playing like he's still in his 20s. He carried the Spurs until Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker returned from their injuries.
Billups immediately changed the mind-set of chronic underachievers when he joined the Nuggets.
But it is James whose presence has the most impact for the Cavaliers, who have the second-best record in the league.
No wonder league executives are doing whatever is necessary to have enough money to make a run at him in 2010.
Mike Monroe
It doesn't seem possible that the first quarter of the NBA season has come and gone, but by Saturday morning, all but one of the 30 teams had played between 20 and 25 games.
In an 82-game season, this is as close as you get to the quarter pole.
Here is what we think we know at an arbitrarily chosen checkpoint:
•The Celtics, who don't seem to miss James Posey much, were no one-season wonder.
•The Hornets are discovering the difficulty of going from elite level to legitimate title contender.
•The Spurs aren't the Spurs without at least two healthy members of their Big Three.
•The Lakers won't win 70 games.
•A soft economy makes owners impatient with failure.
•All those teams lining up to make a run at LeBron James in 2010 are on to something.
James is way out front in the race to be this season's Most Valuable Player.
There is still an argument to be made that Kobe Bryant, the reigning MVP, is the league's best player. He is certainly the one any coach wants taking a game-winning shot.
He is not, however, 6-foot-9 and 240 pounds.
James dominates with both skill and physicality, and now he has begun to assert himself at both ends. He is getting steals and blocks and stops.
I ran the numbers I consider meaningful on the players in the MVP conversation, applying the formula Larry Bird devised in the 1980s to advise MVP voters when he and Magic Johnson were the top candidates nearly every season. Bird believed adding points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, subtracting missed shots, missed free throws and turnovers, then dividing the sum by games played produced a measure of true value.
Here are Bird formula figures for the players I believe to be in the MVP race, through Saturday: Chris Paul (30.9), James (29.0), Dwyane Wade (28.5), Chris Bosh (26.5), Tim Duncan (25.5), Kobe Bryant (22.5), Chauncey Billups (Denver only, 20.3), Paul Pierce (18.2) and Kevin Garnett (17.6).
Numbers tell only part of the story. There are other factors when considering players' relative value.
Paul may have the highest number, but the Hornets have been a bit of a disappointment thus far. Coming off their Southwest Division title season, they have underachieved a bit.
The Lakers are off to a great start, but Bryant's production is down from his MVP season.
Wade leads the league in scoring, and his average points, rebounds and assists per game have been equaled in the past only by Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson. But he understands the Heat will need a better winning percentage if he is to have a shot at MVP.
Bosh, the league's No. 3 scorer, is on a team that already felt the need to dismiss its coach.
Which of the Celtics is most valuable for the team that has the league's best record, Garnett or Pierce?
Duncan has been playing like he's still in his 20s. He carried the Spurs until Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker returned from their injuries.
Billups immediately changed the mind-set of chronic underachievers when he joined the Nuggets.
But it is James whose presence has the most impact for the Cavaliers, who have the second-best record in the league.
No wonder league executives are doing whatever is necessary to have enough money to make a run at him in 2010.