McDonald: Forecast Calls For Calm Trade Winds

[duncan228]

Jeff McDonald: Forecast calls for calm trade winds (http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/)

There is still more than a month left before the NBA's Feb. 19 trade deadline, plenty of time for circumstances and minds to change.

But, asked Wednesday if he felt confident in the Spurs' chances of competing for a championship as constructed -- meaning no major trades or free-agent signings to add, say, another big man -- coach Gregg Popovich answered in the affirmative.

"I believe in this team," he said. "I believed in this team last year, and the year before and the year before. I think they have the ability to do it. That doesn't mean that it's easy, and there some teams you have to get past that are very, very good basketball teams."

Popovich mentioned three of those teams -- the Lakers, Celtics and Cavaliers -- who he said are "in another dimension" from everybody else.

"After that, I think there are seven or eight of us all in the stew," he said. "Any of us can get good enough, or get enough breaks, to be there when money time comes. I'm confident in this group."

It wasn't quite the team-wide "no trade" clause Popovich issued two seasons ago, but it was a vote of confidence in the potential of his team, as built. We'll take the Spurs' trade temperature again in a month, and see if anything has changed.

[SenorSpur]

Thanks for posting this.

Now that there is an open roster spot, I trust the FO is doing their "due diligence" to search for a reserve big to add to this mix.

[FromWayDowntown]

"I believe in this team," he said. "I believed in this team last year, and the year before and the year before. I think they have the ability to do it. That doesn't mean that it's easy, and there some teams you have to get past that are very, very good basketball teams."

Wed, Feb. 20, 2008
San Antonio acquires Kurt Thomas from Seattle in exchange for Francisco Elson, Brent Barry and a 2009 first round draft pick.

[xtremesteven33]

hey TIMVP,

Youre good at reading what Pop really thinks, what do you get from what he said?


I think he believes in this team but he sounds doubtful. He knows this Lakers team is better in term of youth and talent but i think he wouldnt hesitate to trade for a big if he had the chance.

[sa_butta]

CIA Pop at work again. In other words there is something going to happen before the deadline. Of course he believes in this team, but wouldnt he believe a bit more with the addition of solid defender/rebounder??

[hater]

he is telling the to nut up because they have to play out of their minds to go through the West Playoffs.

[lurker23]

My Pop translation: "We won't be making any major trades, but look for us to explore and consider many different options over the next month. The chance of us making a trade of any magnitude is about 65/35."

My predictions:

Completely safe from trade: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Mason, Hill

Willing to trade if the price is right: Finley, Bowen, Oberto, Thomas, Mahinmi

At least one of these players will be involved in any trade that happens: Hairston, Bonner, Vaughn, Udoka

[MoSpur]

I think a signing will be coming. They always explore their options and see what's out there that might make the team better.

[FromWayDowntown]

I think the fact that Pop has repeatedly said over the last few days -- and in several different ways -- that his team is not in the top group is the clearest evidence that he thinks his team's chances slim and basically contingent on some good fortune or some rapid improvement. Pop, in my experience, isn't terribly content with relying on the hope that luck will benefit his team and I think he knows that it's unlikely that the component parts of his team will improve substantially between now and April, May, and June. I think, in essence, that Pop believes that his team playing as well as it possibly can might have a chance to beat the 3 teams he considers elite, and I think he believes that they can play at that level, but that anything short of that level won't get it done.

I don't have access to timvp's Pop decoder ring, but what I read from Pop lately suggests to me an understanding that the Spurs will probably have to get something done to truly contend.

[xtremesteven33]

They are already contenders. He wants to bring the Hornets into the mix just so he doesnt make the Lakers look like a glorified team. He knows the only team that concerns him is the Lakers.

They are already contenders its just that the Lakers are too big and athletic to beat in a 7 game series IMO. If Ian can come in and produce right away then i will confidently say we can beat LA.

[SenorSpur]

I don't have access to timvp's Pop decoder ring, but what I read from Pop lately suggests to me an understanding that the Spurs will probably have to get something done to truly contend.

Agreed. Which, to me, is an indictment on last year's KT signing. The Spurs gave up players and a number one pick for a player that is clearly at the end of the line in his career. Thomas didn't do much for the Spurs in the playoffs and has gotten off to a slow start this year. However, he's has some solid performances as of late. However, the fact remains that he's aging, slow and gravity-challenged. That's why, one year later, we are here talking about the same need for a big. All of which is not an endorsement for last year's trade with Seattle.

[FromWayDowntown]

Agreed. Which, to me, is an indictment on last year's KT signing. The Spurs gave up players and a number one pick for a player that is clearly at the end of the line in his career. Thomas didn't do much for the Spurs in the playoffs and has gotten off to a slow start this year. However, he's has some solid performances as of late. However, the fact remains that he's aging, slow and gravity-challenged. That's why, one year later, we are here talking about the same need for a big. All of which is not an endorsement for last year's trade with Seattle.

I don't think that's necessarily true. The Thomas trade makes all kind of sense if part of your calculation is that Tiago Splitter will join your roster in the succeeding season. While I don't think Splitter is entirely to blame for the still-enviable position that the Spurs find themselves in, it certainly hasn't helped, but I can understand why the Spurs might have been counting on Splitter in February of 2008 and made decisions with that in mind. With that, I don't think the Spurs' need for bigs would be solved by having kept Francisco Elson and I don't think that the Spurs would be better off without Thomas. If Thomas is coming off your bench because he's behind Tim Duncan and a rugged, young, defensive-oriented big man, that's not a bad situation to be in.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I pray this team makes a trade. This roster is good enough to make some noise in the playoffs, but not to win the whole thing.

I think we're a solid/consistent big man away from competing.

[DynastyBuilder]

Regardless. Title is misleading... like Pop would even tip his hand at all. What was he supposed to say? "Everyone on the roster is available, we stink." Would that have warmed up the "trade winds".

[EricB]

I'm still waiting for that mythical big man thats available.

[SenorSpur]

I don't think that's necessarily true. The Thomas trade makes all kind of sense if part of your calculation is that Tiago Splitter will join your roster in the succeeding season. While I don't think Splitter is entirely to blame for the still-enviable position that the Spurs find themselves in, it certainly hasn't helped, but I can understand why the Spurs might have been counting on Splitter in February of 2008 and made decisions with that in mind. With that, I don't think the Spurs' need for bigs would be solved by having kept Francisco Elson and I don't think that the Spurs would be better off without Thomas. If Thomas is coming off your bench because he's behind Tim Duncan and a rugged, young, defensive-oriented big man, that's not a bad situation to be in.

I see your point. I can understand the reasons the Spurs made the deal, based upon some assumptions about how the frontline was projected to look in '08. I'm simply not ready to say the Spurs would've been better off without Elson, anymore than I can say they're better off today with KT.

It just seems as though the trade was a wash. After all, they didn't need KT to advance to the WCF and they would've never been out a 1st round pick. The fact is had they not done the trade at all, they could've singed KT outright over the summer, as he was a UFAs. Same with Elson.

I would contend that once the situation was altered, with Splitter staying in Tau and Ian injured, perhaps the Spurs should've considered bringing Elson back, as an end-of-bench insurance policy. Elson had his flaws, but he was a decent, face-up shooter, average rebounder, and could run the floor - though he rarely got the ball in transition. I know that's not a popular option, but he'd be better than practically any D-League prospect the Spurs could've brought in - and he'd would've been very cheap. Meanwhile, Spurs are still looking for another big.

[galvatron3000]

Hopefully something special will happen before Feb's deadline

[FromWayDowntown]

I'm simply not ready to say the Spurs would've been better off without Elson, anymore than I can say they're better off today with KT.

I'd argue that if the Spurs had Elson and not KT, they'd be in a real predicament at this point. At least KT offers the hope that he can be a rugged interior defender and rebounder.


It just seems as though the trade was a wash. After all, they didn't need KT to advance to the WCF and they would've never been out a 1st round pick. The fact is had they not done the trade at all, they could've singed KT outright over the summer, as he was a UFAs. Same with Elson.

You benefit from hindsight. But at the time that the deadline loomed last year, the Spurs need for a rebounding big man was evident and this board, among other things, was screaming for a move like the Thomas trade. Presti was smart to demand the 1st Rounder, but I think in the moment, it was a deal that was reasonable to the Spurs for a variety of reasons -- particularly in light of the understandable supposition that Splitter was coming and that Mahinmi would be ready to go for 2008-09.


I would contend that once the situation was altered, with Splitter staying in Tau and Ian injured, perhaps the Spurs should've considered bringing Elson back, as an end-of-bench insurance policy.

I think the chronology would have made that difficult if not impossible. Elson signed with the Bucks on August 14. The Spurs knew by then that Splitter was staying put in Spain, but had no idea that Ian would be injured about a month later and then again when he took the assignment to Austin. Again, hindsight is a great thing, but in making their roster decisions, the Spurs couldn't have guessed that Mahinmi would be so badly hurt (or such a slow healer) and I'm not sure that Elson would have been considered a reasonable signing for the Spurs in mid-August.


I know that's not a popular option, but he'd be better than practically any D-League prospect the Spurs could've brought in - and he'd would've been very cheap. Meanwhile, Spurs are still looking for another big.

I'd agree that Elson would be a better choice than almost any D-League big man (as I have argued in another thread) but I'm not sure that Elson was a reasonable choice in mid-August when that decision had to be made. With that said, if the Spurs are truly looking for a role-playing big guy with NBA chops, someone like Elson or even Rasho wouldn't make a bad option to pursue, IMO.

[Yuixafun]

Hopefully something special will happen before Feb's deadline

Sam Presti sends us someone from OKC for pocket lint.

[FromWayDowntown]

In truth, I think the functional problem for the Spurs in trying to make a deal with anyone for anything at this point is a lack of truly moveable assets; few contracts that immediately expire, no particularly useful picks available, and few really attractive but expendable talents. They might benefit to some extent from the effort of some teams to get cap relief for the summer of 2010, but such a deal would probably require the Spurs to take back a deal that expires after that summer.

[K-State Spur]

I see your point. I can understand the reasons the Spurs made the deal, based upon some assumptions about how the frontline was projected to look in '08. I'm simply not ready to say the Spurs would've been better off without Elson, anymore than I can say they're better off today with KT.

If Elson could have seen a Bonner-esque rise in self confidence, there might be something to that. He had the length and range that fit into this group well, he just got so damn tentative on both ends of the floor.

As is, I think this team better off with KT. Since we got Barry back (temporarily) and that pick will likely be in the 22-26 range again in what (on the surface) appears to be a very weak draft class, I'm not so sure I wouldn't make that trade again. Thomas - for all of his faults - gives you a guy that can defend in the post against the big 4/5 guys in the league (at least without getting completely embarrassed). Elson didn't do that and there's nobody that we could pick of off the street or trade a 2nd round pick for who can either.

[FromWayDowntown]

One more thing on the Thomas trade having been worthwhile -- I don't think the Spurs could have counted on Francisco Elson and Fabricio Oberto battling with Shaq in the first round the way Thomas did (and particularly in Games 1 and 5 of that series). You can say the Spurs win over the Suns might have been inevitable, but I'm not sure that's true if a rugged defender like Thomas isn't available to defend Shaq and rebound the way he did in those games. KT's 4 and 10 with a block in Game 1 of that series was not insigificant; nor was the win in that game.

[tp2021]

I am intrigued by the release of Darius Miles from the Griz. That's all I'm sayin

[FromWayDowntown]

I am intrigued by the release of Darius Miles from the Griz. That's all I'm sayin

As a human interest story or something?

I'm not sure that there will be much interest in a guy whose entire game depended upon his athleticism, but whose injuries have cost him that athleticism. It wasn't that long ago that Miles' injuries were medically evaluated to be career ending. I'm not sure how many guys who have little game beyond their athleticism can regain it after suffering a "career ending" knee injury.

Miles is attractive to those who want to stick it to the Blazers, but I'm not sure he's got much to offer from a basketball standpoint.

[Brazil]

My Pop translation: "We won't be making any major trades, but look for us to explore and consider many different options over the next month. The chance of us making a trade of any magnitude is about 65/35."

My predictions:

Completely safe from trade: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Mason, Hill

Willing to trade if the price is right: Finley, Bowen, Oberto, Thomas, Mahinmi

At least one of these players will be involved in any trade that happens: Hairston, Bonner, Vaughn, Udoka

good post

[exstatic]

As a human interest story or something?

I'm not sure that there will be much interest in a guy whose entire game depended upon his athleticism, but whose injuries have cost him that athleticism. It wasn't that long ago that Miles' injuries were medically evaluated to be career ending. I'm not sure how many guys who have little game beyond their athleticism can regain it after suffering a "career ending" knee injury.

Miles is attractive to those who want to stick it to the Blazers, but I'm not sure he's got much to offer from a basketball standpoint.

Send us Batum for Vaughn, OR ELSE!!!
:lol
Seriously, Miles was never that great before his microfracture surgery. He shoots worse than Vaughn, and has an ego the size of Jordan's. Not a fit in SAtown.

[superbigtime]

I think KT is undervalued by alot of Spurs fans and a little overvalued by Pop/Buford. He is unquestionably an upgrade over elson in both BBIQ and physical ability even if he is much older. And big guys have value to a greater age than guards. I just wish we didn't lose a pick to get him. I wouldn't mind seeing Rasho back in black. He knows the system and personnel and he's been playing pretty well. And this team is just desparate to have a Slovenian on the squad again.

[ElNono]

My Pop translation: "We won't be making any major trades, but look for us to explore and consider many different options over the next month. The chance of us making a trade of any magnitude is about 65/35."

My predictions:

Completely safe from trade: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Mason, Hill

Willing to trade if the price is right: Finley, Bowen, Oberto, Thomas, Mahinmi

At least one of these players will be involved in any trade that happens: Hairston, Bonner, Vaughn, Udoka

I would move Bowen to the Completely safe from trade area. Pop has always appreciated what Bowen brings to the team, and even more so doing things like leaving money on the table for the team to have flexibility. Pop has praised him again a few weeks ago, and basically stated that his diminished minutes have more to do with keeping Bruce fresh than anything else.
Other than that, I think you're basically spot on. That said, not really a lot of assets there to really make an impact move.
I think that the only scenario that could play out is the team being involved into a multi-team deal, where they can give up some guys to balance some salary sheet from a bigger trade, getting a relatively good player in the process...

[SenorSpur]

I'd argue that if the Spurs had Elson and not KT, they'd be in a real predicament at this point. At least KT offers the hope that he can be a rugged interior defender and rebounder.



You benefit from hindsight. But at the time that the deadline loomed last year, the Spurs need for a rebounding big man was evident and this board, among other things, was screaming for a move like the Thomas trade. Presti was smart to demand the 1st Rounder, but I think in the moment, it was a deal that was reasonable to the Spurs for a variety of reasons -- particularly in light of the understandable supposition that Splitter was coming and that Mahinmi would be ready to go for 2008-09.


I think the chronology would have made that difficult if not impossible. Elson signed with the Bucks on August 14. The Spurs knew by then that Splitter was staying put in Spain, but had no idea that Ian would be injured about a month later and then again when he took the assignment to Austin. Again, hindsight is a great thing, but in making their roster decisions, the Spurs couldn't have guessed that Mahinmi would be so badly hurt (or such a slow healer) and I'm not sure that Elson would have been considered a reasonable signing for the Spurs in mid-August.



I'd agree that Elson would be a better choice than almost any D-League big man (as I have argued in another thread) but I'm not sure that Elson was a reasonable choice in mid-August when that decision had to be made. With that said, if the Spurs are truly looking for a role-playing big guy with NBA chops, someone like Elson or even Rasho wouldn't make a bad option to pursue, IMO.

All excellent points. :toast

[SenorSpur]

Send us Batum for Vaughn, OR ELSE!!!
:lol


I like it. It would serve their asses right for jumping ahead of to take Batum. :lol

[wildbill2u]

What big man could we get for what we want to trade? Another oaf? You're not going to get a good one for our trade bait.

[MarHill]

I pray this team makes a trade. This roster is good enough to make some noise in the playoffs, but not to win the whole thing.

I think we're a solid/consistent big man away from competing.

I will agree that if the Spurs can get a quality big...which there isn't any then great. It is difficult to find a quality big in the league right now. That will help, but it isn't the biggest factor in my opinion.

The key will be Manu! He's the X-factor! Manu is the one who stirs the drink for the Spurs. While Tim and Tony are the consistent inside/outside game...Manu is the creator and playmaker. And the Spurs need his creativity to have a legit shot to win it all.

He is the one who can change a game when he's not shooting well with his intangibles(The block on Wade in Mon night's game as an example!!). Without him being 100 percent (or very close)....then they won't win it all!!

Moreover, I believe the defense can get better as the season progress. But with the additions of Mason (who will win a game or two in the playoffs) and Hill have given this team added depth and firepower. And don't forget Finley and I believe with Mason becoming the 4th option...that will help him as the season goes along.

I know I maybe in the minority on this.....but there is no good or serviceable big they can get (be realistic...please). So this is the group the Spurs are going with and I believe they can get it done!!

:flag:

[xtremesteven33]

The Spurs need a garbage truck big man. Nothing more. Someone who can come in and be happy doing the dirty work for the team. Rebounds, Hustle plays, Contesting shots, putbacks. Those things win you playoff games. There are bigs like that. We just gotta find one quick

[MarHill]

The Spurs need a garbage truck big man. Nothing more. Someone who can come in and be happy doing the dirty work for the team. Rebounds, Hustle plays, Contesting shots, putbacks. Those things win you playoff games. There are bigs like that. We just gotta find one quick

Who is that guy?

[td4mvp21]

I still want Haslem but we don't have the pieces to lure him away from Miami. I'm not sure about his contract either.