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ducks
09-01-2003, 02:46 PM
Last hurrah
Peter King, SI.com

I'm picking a Rams-Bills Super Bowl.

Nothing all that mysterious about it. Actually, I'm going with the chalk, which says you should pick at least one team that is on course to continue rising from the mist -- for me, that team is Buffalo. And the chalk says to go with any other team besides Cincinnati or Arizona. That's St. Louis this time around.

The team I like the most at this moment is Tampa Bay, but the law of averages suggests it would be stupid to fall in love with the Bucs. Since the 1979 season, which marked the end of the Pittsburgh Steelers dynasty, 24 Super Bowls have been played. During that span, only three teams have won back-to-back titles. Something's going to happen to Tampa this season to prevent the Bucs from repeating as champs. I don't know what it will be. Insidious selfishness? Brad Johnson going down? Key defensive guys getting hurt? Jon Gruden sleeping until 5:30 a.m.? I can't tell you what, exactly, but something will transpire.

Now you're wondering why I picked St. Louis and Buffalo. I think this the Rams' last stand. Marshall Faulk and his weak knees are getting old. Faulk is smart enough to be a general manager someday, if he wants to be one, but I think this will be the last high-impact year he'll have as a player. I believe in Kurt Warner more than the average St. Louisan. However, two things worry me about the Rams: Orlando Pace and the secondary. Pace's constant holdouts have become divisive; he'll give St. Louis this year and then who knows? I think defensive coordinator Lovie Smith will figure out a way to get enough pressure from his defensive front.

Regarding the Bills: New additions Jeff Posey and Takeo Spikes will make the linebackers group a premier one. Cornerback Antoine Winfield will emerge as a real star. The offense will be more balanced, by far, than any in its division. Running back Travis Henry will be reliable and great. An anonymous offensive line will hold up.

Here are my picks for the 2003 season, with records and a wisenheimer crack about each team (* = wild-card winner ):

EAST
1. Buffalo, 10-6: Henry gains 1,793 yards. Fumbles twice. Gets traded. 2. N.E, 9-7: I still don't know how the Pats will run the ball. 3. Miami, 9-7: Fantasy owners who passed on Ricky Williams are loons. . N.Y. Jets, 6-10: Boo birds strafe rookie Dewayne Robertson by Columbus Day.

NORTH
1. Pittsburgh, 11-5: Tommy Maddox: Comeback Player of the Decade. . Baltimore, 8-8: Good move, Coach Billick. Kyle Boller is the man to play at QB. . Cleveland, 7-9: Kelly Holcomb's a stud. Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren aren't. . Cincinnati, 5-11: The problem is, Marvin Lewis doesn't actually suit up.

SOUTH . Indianapolis, 10-6: No conviction. Just a gut feeling that coach Tony Dungy fixes the D. . Tennessee, 9-7: Anyone seen Jevon Kearse? He's a little important. . Jacksonville, 8-8: My money's on QB David Garrard to start six or seven games. . Houston, 4-12: Doomed by a bad running game and offensive line.

WEST . Denver, 10-6: Jake Plummer starts slow, finishes very fast. MVP fast. . Oakland, 9-7: I question whether Rich Gannon can stay upright again. . Kansas City, 7-9: To my colleague Paul Zimmerman: I don't see it, Doctor. . San Diego, 7-9: David Boston becomes the first 400-pound wideout ever.

Wild-card round enver 19, Miami 9. ew England 30, Indianapolis 21

Divisional round: enver 22, Pittsburgh 21 uffalo 20, New England 17

AFC Championship: uffalo 27, Denver 17

East
1. Philadelphia, 12-4: Ever heard of L.J. Smith? You will, 70 catches from now. 2. N.Y. Giants, 9-7: Wear some armor, Tiki Barber. You'll touch the ball 350 times. . Washington, 6-10: Patrick Ramsey looks like a 56 percent passer to me. . Dallas, 5-11: Bill Parcells would kill for a 56 percent passer.

North . Green Bay, 9-7: The Pack is too tough for this weak division. . Minnesota, 8-8: DT Chris Hovan: The league's next weirdo superstar. . Chicago, 6-10: I am officially throwing out the first Nick Saban rumor. . Detroit, 4-12: Bad sign: Steve Mariucci is mainlining Grecian Formula.

South . Tampa Bay, 10-6: So many huge games finally take a toll. Somehow. 2. Carolina, 10-6: That's right. The kitties grow claws. I love that defense. . Atlanta, 9-7: Early loss to Carolina, minus Michael Vick, is death knell. . New Orleans, 7-9: Saints buy Warren Sapp after the season.

West . St. Louis, 11-5: Warner was 22 of 24 against Buffalo and Tampa Bay this summer. . Seattle, 8-8: CB Shawn Springs' injury takes its toll on 'Hawks. . S.F., 8-8: Can't forget that defensive effort in playoffs against the Giants. . Arizona, 5-11: Sleeper fantasy pick, folks: WR Anquan Boldin.

Wild-card round
Tampa Bay 20, Giants 14. arolina 16, Green Bay 12.

Divisional round: arolina 17, Philadelphia 16. t. Louis 30, Tampa Bay 24.

NFC Championship: St. Louis 9, Carolina 7.

SUPER BOWL: St. Louis 28, Buffalo 20.

And now, my awards predictions:

MVP: Jake Plummer, quarterback, Denver.
Offensive player of the year: Ricky Williams, running back, Miami.
Defensive player of the year: Rosevelt Colvin, linebacker, New England.
Defensive rookie of the year: Calvin Pace, defensive end, Arizona.
Offensive rookie of the year: (tie) Onterrio Smith, running back, Minnesota; Teyo Johnson, tight end, Oakland.
Coach of the year: John Fox, Carolina.

"We talked about fighting the first day of training camp. It's an intolerable offense."

--Raiders coach Bill Callahan,, who really put his foot down after Bill Romanowski ripped teammate Marcus Williams' helmet off and punched him in the eye during practice last week, breaking the tight end's orbital bone and putting him out for the year. Callahan suspended the 37-year-old linebacker for one camp practice.

Way to get tough, coach.

Of the 44 players who started last Thursday night's preseason finale between the Eagles and Jets, one -- running back Correll Buckhalter -- was a regular first-stringer.

Buckhalter was in for three snaps.

It costs $4.50 to buy a 24-ounce bottle of Poland Spring Water at Fenway Park.

Two weeks ago, it cost $6.97 to buy a 35-bottle case of 17-ounce bottles of Poland Spring water at Costco in Clifton, N.J.

Water in Fenway, then, is 18.7 cents per ounce.

Water at Costco is 1.2 cents per ounce.

Water at Fenway is 16 times as expensive as it is in the real world.

Make no mistake about it, John Henry: This is an aggravating travel note.

... With St. Louis coach Mike Martz, four hours before his Rams (some version of his Rams, anyway) took the field for their final preseason game last Thursday against Kansas City -- a game for which Warner and Faulk did not suit up.

MMQB: Should something be done about shortening the preseason?

Martz: We're not going to dress Kurt and Marshall tonight. That should tell you I think something has to be done. These exhibitions just put too many players in harm's way before the games that count. It hurts the teams, and it hurts the league. It hurts us all to see Michael Vick and Chad Pennington go down. I just cringe when I open the paper now and see all these injuries. Also, doesn't it seem like there's more buzz about these preseason games now? It seems like there's so much hype.

MMQB: Well, the networks are going to televise the games, and so they have to promote them. So if ESPN is airing the Jets and Bucs game the first weekend of August, even though it knows Warren Sapp and John Lynch and Pennington are only going to play three or four plays, it still hypes the game using those guys in its commercials. Then you turn on the game and and you see all backups.

Martz: Our team has already lost a guy, Kevin Curtis, a third-round pick from Utah State, who I think's going to be a great player in this league. Another player ran into the back of his leg [in a preseason game] and Curtis is out for a while with a broken bone. This is a great receiver who will take your breath away. In time, I think he's going to be on the level of Ike [Bruce] and Torry [Holt].

MMQB: Can Warner and Faulk can make it through a full season with their recent injury history?

Martz: Well, people keep asking me that, and I don't even think about it. All I know is I watch Kurt in practice every day and he looks great. He's throwing the ball great. And in the one game Marshall played a lot this summer, guess how many touches he had in the first half? Twenty-one. And he looked great. He's going to be fine.

As I figured, there were quite a few letters about my opinion on the length of the preseason. I was surprised to read that most of you think I'm all wet and there should be no limitations on how much starting players play in exhibition games. You've already read Martz's thoughts on the subject. He feels the same way I do -- it's absurd to play Russian Roulette with your best players during the preseason. I have one more point to make on the subject. Actually, it's not a point. It's a question from Buffalo radio host Mike Schopp, on whose show I appear regularly during the season. "How come college football players, who don't play any exhibition games, don't collapse during the first contest of the season? It isn't a necessity to play preseason games. The NFL has just convinced people that it's a necessity."

On with the mail.

YOU'RE WAY OFF, AS USUAL, PETER. From David of Ashburn, Va.: Your MMQB perspective on the preseason was talked about in the gym and at the watercooler, and the general consensus is you're way off. Simply put, out of the four exhibition games, the veterans or marquee starters play about six quarters at game speed, and that's not much at all. One of the fitness trainers in my gym, who played football at Maryland, said the coach has to weigh the risk of injury versus the need for game-speed practice, and he's exactly right. Mandating how a coach should run his team is really an emotional response and not a big-picture point of view.

David, I respect your opinion, and those of everyone else who wrote in to say I was dead wrong. I just ask you one thing: If you rooted for a team such as Atlanta, and your franchise quarterback broke his right fibula while scrambling in a game that didn't count, would be as dispassionate about the risks of preseason football?

YOU'RE OFF, PART DEUX. From Jim Powers of New York: How can can coaches evaluate unknown, small-college players such as Wayne Chrebet or Dominic Rhodes when, according to your plan, opponents' starters are only to play one quarter per preseason game? The way your proposal is structured, you can only judge second-stringers against other second-stringers. Wouldn't it be beneficial for a coach to see how a rookie or backup plays against first-teamers?

The only way a bunch of these competitive men who are set in their ways (such as Dan Reeves, Parcells and Dave Wannstedt) are going to play the regulars only two quarters for an entire preaseason is to mandate a rule that says there will be only two preseason games, and the starters can play only one quarter in each game. When you do that, you make the rules the same for everyone, so no one can claim he's at a disadvantage.

AND NOW FOR A SUGGESTION. From Michael A. Dotson of Cottage Grove, Minn.: How about cutting two preseason games, but adding a pair of games to the regular season?

I used to think an 18-game schedule would be fine, but the NFL is such a battle of attrition that not only do I now think it's a bad idea, I also believe the NFL Players Association would take a hard stand against it. And rightfully so.

YOU AND YOUR NEW YORK MEDIA PALS VASTLY OVERRATE JEREMY SHOCKEY: From Michael Kim of Seattle: It was pretty lame of you to say that Shockey is the biggest weapon at his position in the NFL. How many TDs did he have in 2002? He is a preseason wonderboy who didn't do squat during the regular campaign. All of the comparisons to Mark Bavaro are a joke. Heck, you can't even compare Shockey to Todd Heap, Tony Gonzalez and the like. You got caught up in the New York media machine.

Michael, just take a look at the following:

Most receptions by a tight end, 2002 . Shockey, Giants 74. . Heap, Ravens 68. . Gonzalez, Chiefs 63. . Shannon Sharpe, Broncos 61. . Bubba Franks, Packers 54.

A TALE OF THREE QUARTERBACKS. From Richard O. of Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck, Kelly Holcomb, Tommy Maddox: Who picks up where he left off in 2002? Who will come back to earth?

Great question. I say Hasselbeck, Holcomb and Maddox all keep it up. I happen to like all three, because of the weapons they have to work with. I love Seahawks wide receiver Koren Robinson, and based on the way he played in the last seven games last year, I think Hasselbeck will be a 4,000-yard passer this season. Mike Holmgren is inventing an offense that is built to help the 27-year-old QB succeed. I really like the other quarterbacks, too. After watching Holcomb at the end of last year in Cleveland, I thought it would be a shame if he didn't get the opportunity to keep it going. He's a natural player; Tim Couch, to me, looked mechanical. And Maddox has such great weaponry. If you get a chance, read my Pittsburgh Steelers preview. You'll see the kind of bond Maddox has already formed with his wideouts, particularly Hines Ward.

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. From Lt. Col. Jim Barlow, USAF, Operation Enduring Freedom: I'm deployed overseas. I appreciated your comments on the family of four traveling from Green Bay, who were apparently flying for the first time. I would probably have had some of the same thoughts had I observed them, but don't forget that many, many Americans have never flown. We live in a very big world, but even many Americans never have and never will see much of it. You and I are both blessed, indeed.

Jim, you're right. And the first time I don't appreciate how fortunate I am please slug me once right here in the jaw. Hey, good luck over there, and thanks for everything.

1. I think the Olandis Gary trade, made out of necessity because of the shoulder injury to running back James Stewart, was good for Detroit, but by no means a biggie. "He's played like a ham sandwich this preseason," one personnel man said of Gary yesterday. But the Leos needed a body who could run the ball 22 times a game in September, and Gary was the best ham sandwich available.

2. I think the toughest break of the weekend -- and maybe a lucky break because of the where the bullet landed -- belongs to Joey Porter, the Steelers linebacker who was shot outside a bar in Denver after his alma mater, Colorado State, lost to Colorado in Denver Saturday night. I've talked to Porter three times at length over the past three years. I respect guys who take the game seriously and who work hard to be really good, and that is Porter all the way. We talked in Latrobe, Pa., a month ago after I'd seen him and fellow 'backer Jason Gildon take Kendrell Bell aside and work with Bell on pass-rush moves from the right-end position, which is where Bell will line up on passing downs this year. It was all about schooling Bell, the same way Porter had been schooled by the veteran linebackers when he got to Pittsburgh. "We've got a good 2tradition going here," he told me, "and I'm just carrying it on." Porter may have had the best game by any linebacker last year in Week 2! against Oakland: 10 tackles, three sacks, two interceptions. If the Steelers are lucky, the bullet that waslodged in Porter's thigh yesterday (doctors are still evaluating whether to perform surgery to remove the bullet) will only be a two- or three-week detour for the linebacker, because they really need him to be good.

3. I think it was a wholly uneventful Sunday on the waiver wire. I mean, which of the cut players gets you excited? If he is healthy, and I'm Dallas, I'd give Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala a whirl, because Parcells likes big backs who can move the chains. If I'm the GM of one of about nine other teams, I'd claim Neil O'Donnell. Green Bay and Arizona want ex-Cardinal MarTay Jenkins -- who has a sparkling 25.7 kickoff return average -- to be a fifth receiver. Best guy on the waiver list? I'll take either pass rusher Marcus Jones, formerly of the Bills, who is sure to get a fling somewhere because rushers are non-existent league-wide this time of year, or role player/worker bee/special-teams ace Robert Edwards, who came back from the horrific beach-football injury he suffered four years ago to be a contributor with Miami last fall.

4. I think Brett Favre is in mourning today. His roommate since the beginning of time, Frank Winters, the guy Favre watches bad TV with every Saturday night during the fall, was whacked by the Pack.

5. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. Pedro's fastest fastball, I believe, was 91 mph on Saturday. Sign of things to come, or just a hangover from pharyngitis?

b. One other Soxism: Three through nine in the order now (Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Trot Nixon, Bill Mueller, Jason Varitek) have 23, 31, 23, 22, 24, 17 and 22 homers, and 90, 90, 78, 83, 78, 73 and 79 RBIs, respectively. The Red Sox could finish the year with seven players who have at least 20 homers and 85 RBIs. Sheeesh. Has that ever happened before? Boston's No. 9 hitter, Varitek, is on track for 26 and 94. That's obscene.

c. If you're a Reds' fan, here's what's happened to your lineup during the past five months. It has gone from Barry Larkin, Aaron Boone, Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, Brandon Larson and Jason LaRue -- as good as Houston's, at least -- to Ryan Freel, Juan Castro, D'Angelo Jiminez (D'Angelo Jiminez batting third? Let Congress investigate!), Ruben Mateo, LaRue, Tim Hummel, Stephen Smitherman and Corky Miller. Casey is in there sometimes, but let's be honest, people. What has happened to the Reds is a crime against the people of Cincinnati.

d. I finally saw Seabiscuit. I'd give it a B-plus. Now, the book was an A-plus. Laura Hillenbrand wrote a masterpiece, one of the best books written during my lifetime. What bothered me in the translation to the film is that the story of people overtook the story of an era and horse racing's impact on that era. The essence of the book was just that -- horses and a living history of the day. The movie made the story of the horse owner nearly as big as the story of the horse. Dumb. But the horse racing scenes were terrific. I really admire the jobs Tobey Maguire and actual jockey Gary Stevens, did with the horse stuff. Great realism.

e. The greatest thing about end-of-summer TV nights: the daily Curb Your Enthusiasm fix on HBO. I will say this: There is no better single episode in comedic television in my memory than the one in which the chef with Tourette's Syndrome chef explodes profanely subsequently causing Larry and his friends to go nuts, too.

f. It's a sign of something -- baseball mediocrity, the apocalypse, something -- that the Brewers are 12-1 in their last 13.

g. Coffeenerdness: I've never been a scone person, but that raspberry scone Starbucks serves up at 7:20 a.m. is ridiculously good -- especially when it's piled on top of my 7 a.m. Cheerios.

h. This is not a big deal for all non-Nutmeggers, but for UConn to open its new football stadium with a 24-point win over a a Big Ten team (albeit a lousy Indiana one), in the Huskies' Division I infancy, on the heels of closing 2002 by winning at Iowa State, is a pretty big deal.

i. Break up the Scarlett Knights. That's one in a row for the Schianomen.

6. I think the 32 owners in the NFL desperately need to review the amount of time key players are on the field during the preseason. They might give it lip service, but they won't change a thing. The owners are too greedy. So the coaches will have to continue to play phony games, like 75 percent of the coaches did this past week. You have to rise up, fans. You're fools for paying good money to see these shams of games.

7. I think Seattle tackle Walter Jones needs to take a smart pill. There's this thing called the franchise tag in the NFL. Teams won the right to declare one player on the roster a franchise player to prevent this individual from pursuing unfettered free agency. When you are tagged, you are paid the average of the top five salaries in the league at your position. The tag number this year for tackles is $5.7 million. Jones has been offered a long-term contract which would make him one of the five highest-paid tackles in football, but he has turned that offer down. And this week, after holding out of Seattle's camp all year, his refusal to report to the team will cost him his first seventeeth of his 2003 paycheck -- $340,000. Help me understand this: How can someone who is a good player, but no Jonathan Ogden, throw away $340,000?

8. I think a star is born in Dallas: Randal Williams. Remember that name. Special-teamer of the year.

9. I think the Jets have to get over this "Redskins raided our team so we're ticked off at them" angle. It's just business, men. And you'd have done the same thing if you had the chance.

10. I think I'm starting to think the Vikings are going to be better than we think. Get that? If they can run the ball Sunday in Green Bay, that will be one heck of a gamelink (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=lasthurrah&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns)

MickeyOnFox
09-01-2003, 02:50 PM
Talk is Cheap put some $$ on it
then I will take you serious:smokin2

KoriEllis
09-01-2003, 03:29 PM
Ducks, just FYI I only edited your post to take out some of the spaces.

TheCat5
09-01-2003, 05:29 PM
MVP: Jake Plummer, quarterback, Denver.

I think he's underrated, but MVP? :shock

ducks
09-03-2003, 08:29 PM
it is ok I posted in a hurry I had to help a customer:smokin2

T Park Num 9
09-07-2003, 03:10 AM
boy hope they are right :D


Same here Cat, I think hes gotten a bad rap too, but MVP????