Ford: What happens next in the NBA?

[Kori Ellis]

By Chad Ford

http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&id=2001649

Take a deep breath. The trade deadline has barely expired and teams are already wheeling and dealing as they prepare for the playoffs and the coming offseason.

For teams that still have a shot at the postseason, now is the time to make any final changes to the roster. With guys such as Gary Payton and Dale Davis about to hit the waiver wire, some teams are still in wine-and-dine mode.

After those moves are done, it's time to settle into one of the most interesting playoff races we've seen in the NBA in a while. Who helped and who hurt themselves in the playoff hunt? Who is gearing up for the lottery?

Now that the trade deadline hangover has subsided, Insider breaks down what it all means and how it should affect teams for the remainder of the season.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS
It might be time to revise our immediate reaction to the Celtics' trade for Antoine Walker -- conditionally. If Payton is coming back to Boston (and the indications were Sunday night that he was leaning in that direction), add the Celtics into the "Winners" category from Thursday's trade deadline winners and losers.

The Hawks reached a buyout with Payton over the weekend. He should be officially waived by the team today and will clear waivers 48 hours later. When that happens, Payton's agent, Aaron Goodwin, thinks Payton will turn down offers by the Heat and several Western Conference teams to return to Boston.

"Quite honestly, Gary's out with his family and his mom, and I haven't talked to him much," Goodwin told the Boston Herald. "I think he's leaning toward coming back to the Celtics. I think he likes what's going on in Boston. I still have to talk to him about things, but I think that's where he wants to end up. But you never know with Gary."

If Ainge pulls that off, the trade was a coup. A starting lineup of Payton, Paul Pierce, Ricky Davis, Walker and Raef LaFrentz, with Mark Blount, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen and Delonte West coming off the bench should be able to best what the Sixers put together at the trade deadline.

Without Payton, this trade appeared to be a bit of wash for the Celtics. With GP back in the fold, however, the Celtics move into the big trade winner's circle in the East.

Speaking of trade winners, look for either the Pistons or Pacers to reap the benefits of the Hornets' salary dump. The Hornets reached a buyout agreement with Dale Davis Sunday and will officially waive him Monday.

There is no chance a team will pick up Davis' contract via waivers, which means he'll be fair game as of Wednesday. The Pistons, Pacers, Sixers, Suns and Spurs have contacted Davis' agent. According to sources, Davis has narrowed that list to Indiana and Detroit.

Davis is leaning toward the Pacers because of his previous playing experience there and an opportunity to get big minutes now. With Jeff Foster nursing a bad back, Davis' chance at significant playing time in Indiana is clear.

However, the Pistons probably offer Davis the best chance at winning a championship this year.

"He's going to make a decision [today]," James "Chubby" Wells, Davis' agent, told The Detroit News. "What it boils down to is going to a place that gives him the best chance to be somewhere next year – and not necessarily with the team he goes to now. He wants to go to a place he can contribute and win and show what he can do."

Two more player buyouts could shake up rosters in the next few days. The Bucks moved quickly on a buyout for Alan Henderson. He's expected to re-sign with the Mavs as soon as he clears waivers.

The Heat are trying to work out a buyout with Wesley Person so they can add Alonzo Mourning to the roster. If Person agrees to a buyout, he'll likely go to the Nuggets, who have been searching for a sweet-shooting two guard all season.

Two trades that almost happened before the trade deadline? The Celtics were in talks with the Hornets about a deal that would've sent Gary Payton, Michael Stewart and Tony Allen to New Orleans for Baron Davis. Both sides claim to be the one that pulled out of the deal.

The other interesting one had the Cavs and Knicks talking about a Drew Gooden and Ira Newble for Kurt Thomas swap. Apparently, Cavs coach Paul Silas wanted a veteran power forward anchoring his front line. Luckily, common sense prevailed and the Cavs pulled out of the talks. Isiah Thomas would've pulled the trigger on that trade in a heartbeat.

THE SEASON
Last season, the Pistons' acquisition of Rasheed Wallace at the trade deadline propelled them into the NBA Finals. Nothing that dramatic happened this year. In fact, none of the elite teams in the East made much noise over the last week.

Detroit made its big move earlier in the winter, swapping Elden Campbell for Carlos Arroyo. The Pistons are 12-3 since the move and continue to pick up momentum.

The Heat made a modest acquisition in Steve Smith. Smith might provide the team with some extra perimeter help if he can stay healthy, but overall the change shouldn't amount to much.

The Cavs' acquisition of Jiri Welsch should help. But why does everyone keep claiming that the Cavs landed a sharpshooter? Welsch is shooting 32 percent from 3-point range this season and doesn't take many shots from there. He's a good, athletic defender with a very good handle for a guy his size. But he's not a sniper. Apparently, old international stereotypes die hard.

The real movement at the trade deadline took place in the woeful Atlantic Division as two teams made significant moves in an effort to secure what will likely be the division's one playoff slot.

The Sixers made the most dramatic move, landing Chris Webber and Rodney Rogers for a collection of spare parts. However, the Celtics' moves could be more significant. Antoine Walker's return seems to have ignited a spark in Boston. If the Celtics end up getting back Gary Payton (who should be officially waived by the Hawks on Monday), they just might be able to hold off the Sixers for the division crown.

The bottom is going to get ugly. For the second straight year, the Hawks gutted their team at the deadline. This time, the Hawks are crossing their fingers that the team doesn't rattle off a bunch of late-season wins and ruin Atlanta's shot at landing the top pick in the draft.

Several moves in the West could turn out to be significant. A number of GMs felt that the Spurs' addition of Nazr Mohammed strengthened their position as the favorites to win it all this season. What the Spurs desperately lacked was a big, athletic center who could compensate for Rasho Nesterovic's lack of toughness in the middle.

The Mavs also made a significant move in landing Keith Van Horn. Van Horn should be a perfect fit in Don Nelson's offense. When you factor in that it appears Dallas will pick Alan Henderson back up off waivers, the team clearly was strengthened.

The Kings might not have suffered as big a blow as everyone originally believed. While the team didn't replace Webber with a star, the depth and toughness it got in return (Corliss Williamson, Kenny Thomas and Brian Skinner) could make a significant difference in the long run. Once Peja Stojakovic returns, Sacramento will have plenty of offensive firepower to go with the heat it added on the defensive end.

Houston's addition of Mike James should help the Rockets challenge the Kings for the fifth playoff seed in the West.

The three teams battling for the eighth seed – the Lakers, Timberwolves and Nuggets – didn't do much of anything. Of the three, the Nuggets clearly have the momentum under new head coach George Karl. If they can stay healthy, something that has been a problem all season, look for them to pass L.A. and Minnesota for that last playoff spot.

The Hornets likely guaranteed that they'll be battling the Hawks and Bobcats for the top pick in the draft by trading away Baron Davis before the deadline. They helped their closest competition in the West, the Warriors, significantly by shipping Davis there for Speedy Claxton and Dale Davis.

[Kori Ellis]

There is no chance a team will pick up Davis' contract via waivers, which means he'll be fair game as of Wednesday. The Pistons, Pacers, Sixers, Suns and Spurs have contacted Davis' agent. According to sources, Davis has narrowed that list to Indiana and Detroit.

Davis is leaning toward the Pacers because of his previous playing experience there and an opportunity to get big minutes now. With Jeff Foster nursing a bad back, Davis' chance at significant playing time in Indiana is clear.

However, the Pistons probably offer Davis the best chance at winning a championship this year.

I guess he wouldn't see much playing time with the Spurs, so that's why they are out of the running.

[superfedja]

thx kori u rock

[Kori Ellis]

Part 2 of the article ...

An unprecedented flurry of player movement at the trade deadline last Thursday still has heads spinning.

What has gone down in the past few weeks will have ramifications not only on the playoff race but also on what's shaping up to be one of the busiest offseasons in NBA history.

With recent revelations about the new collective bargaining agreement, a looming age limit and a plethora of players heading into free agency, the landscape of the NBA should be in for a seismic shift.

Now that the trade deadline hangover has subsided, Insider breaks down what it all means and how it should affect a number of teams' plans for this summer.


THE FALL GUYS

There already have been a number of coaches who have been fired or resigned this season, and it doesn't look to be over.

The Lakers' Frank Hamblen and the Knicks' Herb Williams are placeholders going into the summer. Neither coach has a long-term future. Coincidentally, both teams will pursue the same head coach, Phil Jackson. Whoever doesn't get Phil likely will make a pitch at the Pistons' Larry Brown (who claims he won't coach another NBA team) and ousted Wolves head coach Flip Saunders.

Timberwolves coach/VP Kevin McHale could be out of both jobs if things don't turn around soon. McHale's win-now, worry-about-the-future-later philosophy caught up with him quickly. Leaving the front office to coach the team was the final act of desperation. Regardless of whether the team makes the playoffs (which looks less likely by the day), it's probably time for a change in Minnesota. McHale's inability to get a trade done before the deadline, and Kevin Garnett's growing surliness toward the team, likely will get McHale kicked to the curb.

Blazers head coach Mo Cheeks and GM John Nash both might go down with the ship in Portland. The players have been indifferent, at best, toward Cheeks for several months. They haven't done much to support him and have infuriated Cheeks with their constant suggestions on who should be playing. Nash isn't in a much better spot. Can anyone honestly say the Blazers are better off now than they were two years ago? The team continues to make dumb financial moves, was unable to turn three good trade assets into a trade before the deadline and, for the most part, has turned much of the city against it.

Raptors head coach Sam Mitchell and GM Rob Babcock are off to a rocky start. At least one of them might not last until next season, and the good money is on Mitchell. His rookie mistakes as head coach have turned into a big enough distraction that Babcock might look to see what else is out there this season. Babcock isn't off to a great start, either. He made a huge error on draft night, muffed the Vince Carter trade, then sat out the trade deadline, reportedly afraid that he might make another bad move. He'll likely have another year to prove himself, but the pressure will be on this summer for him to begin righting the wrongs (some self-created) in Toronto.

Magic GM John Weisbrod is no longer insisting that Johnny Davis is their man. The team has lost eight of its last 12 games. Steve Francis no longer seems to be responding. Weisbrod has proven he's not afraid to make changes. Look for either Davis or Francis to hire a real estate agent.

Sonics head coach Nate McMillan and GM Rick Sund are in the last year of their contracts. You'd think, given the team's stellar play this year, that both would have nice fat extensions by now. However, with the team's ownership situation a little muddy and eight players heading into free agency, the Sonics are waiting for … well, no one's sure what they're waiting for.

A number of other NBA luminaries might voluntarily give up their jobs at the end of the season. The Mavericks' Don Nelson claims he's stepping down, which means that you can probably count the Mavericks in on the Phil Jackson sweepstakes. Pistons head coach Larry Brown flirts with retirement and/or relocation on the hour. There's also a chance the Grizzlies' Jerry West and the Rockets' Carroll Dawson will retire.

Who's going to replace them? Jackson will be the prize this summer. Look for the Lakers, Knicks and Mavs to make serious runs. Saunders will be right behind him, with the Lakers, Knicks and Pistons likely to show interest. If Cheeks loses his job, there's a good chance he gets another opportunity. Former Warriors head coach and current Grizzlies assistant Eric Musselman likely will be near the front of the line after Jackson and Saunders are off the board. Pacers assistant Mike Brown should be the next NBA assistant coach to make the move to the end of the bench.

Possible replacement GMs? A number of teams might come hard after Kiki Vandeweghe, who will enter the last year of his contract next season. Given all the messiness in Denver this season, Vandeweghe might be looking for an exit strategy at this point.

Pistons VP John Hammond already has turned down two gigs (Portland and Toronto). Is this the year someone gives him an offer he can't refuse?

Pacers VP David Morway is the smartest executive in the NBA that no one ever talks about. Nurtured at Donnie "The Don" Walsh's side the past six years, he's young, has a great leadership style, knows the cap inside and out and has a keen eye for talent.

"He has the background; he's paid the dues," Walsh told Insider. "I think he's ready. When you're talking about a GM, you're talking about an executive. The job is more multidimensional than just scouting. That person has to know the finances, the cap, has to have experience assembling a team, has to know how to lead. It isn't just can that guy play basketball. I think David fits the bill."

The Pistons and Pacers have become models of how to rebuild without blowing things up, and both VPs played a big part in their team's success. Hammond and Morway should get long looks from a couple of teams contemplating a change.

And don't count out Brown. While Brown has made it clear that he doesn't want to coach another team, he has hinted that he'd like to land with an NBA franchise in some other capacity. Those close to him claim he'd love to take over a front office. The Clippers, Rockets and Nuggets all are possibilities for his next gig.

THE DRAFT

A number of teams have two first-round picks this summer. The Hawks have two (their own and either the Celtics' or Lakers' pick). So do the Bobcats (their own and the Cavs'), the Nuggets (their own and the Wizards'), Knicks (their own and the Suns'), Magic (their own and the Kings'), Jazz (their own and the Mavs') and the Raptors (their own and probably the Sixers').

It looks as though three teams – the Hawks, Bobcats and Hornets – will battle it out for the top pick in the draft. This year's draft could be very thin at the top. Chris Paul and Marvin Williams are the only two guys that scouts agree are indisputably worthy of a top-five pick in the draft. However, there's a chance both might return to school.

Last year, the theme of the draft centered on the high school kids. Eight of them were drafted in the first round – a record. Only a handful of high school players are considered draft-worthy this year, and only one or two (Gerald Green and possibly Martell Webster) have a shot at slipping into the lottery.

The international class might be the best ever, but a Euro backlash could limit those players' impact. That means the pendulum likely will swing back to the college kids this year. A number of them -- including Paul, Williams, Andrew Bogut, Rudy Gay, Chris Taft and Deron Williams -- are considered sure-fire lottery picks.

THE CBA

Both sides seem confident that there won't be a lockout, but there could be major changes this summer in the way the NBA does business. Last week, we gave you the particulars of the current CBA negotiations. If the two sides don't vary much from where they are right now, in the final deal we can expect:

The cap to go up, giving teams more room to make a run at top free agents.

Teams to have more difficulty re-signing their own free agents. Under the old CBA, teams willing to offer their own free agents the max typically could offer $30 million more than the competition over the life of the contract, giving them a competitive edge in re-signing their own players. Now, with shorter contract lengths and smaller raises, the gap will be considerably smaller.

Teams that are way over the cap to slash payroll. If the owners get the "Super Tax" they are proposing, even owners such as James Dolan and Mark Cuban might have to rein in their spending.

Trades to become easier. Both the owners and the players want to loosen rules to make trades easier to consummate. That likely will lead to more player movement in the summer.

With word that an age limit is coming, expect a flood of high school players and young international players to at least flirt with the draft.

THE SUMMER

The players in free agency? Assuming there's a $45 million cap (it could be much higher depending on what happens with the CBA), the Hawks will have roughly $24 million in cap room. The Cavs and Sonics will have $21 million, the Bobcats roughly $20 million. The Clippers and Hornets will have about $11 million. The Bucks have cleared around $9 million.

What does this mean? Not as much as it first appears. The Sonics likely will spend all of their room re-signing their own free agents. The Cavs will use roughly half of theirs in an attempt to re-up Zydrunas Ilgauskas. And the Bobcats likely will save much of their cap space for summer 2007.

That leaves the Hawks, Cavs (roughly $10 million), Hornets, Clippers and Bobcats as the players in the free-agent market. Since only one of those teams, Cleveland, is in any position to compete for the playoffs (though the Clippers are getting close), the free-agent destinations for top veterans will be very limited.

Ray Allen and Michael Redd appear to be the two elite free agents this year. Allen has been unable to work out an extension with the Sonics, meaning he could possibly be on the move. Redd, on the other hand, appears to be leaning heavily toward returning to the Bucks after some intense negotiating right before the trade deadline. Other top unrestricted free agents include Larry Hughes, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Stromile Swift, Ilgauskas and Bobby Simmons.
The Sixers were celebrating adding Webber to the mix without giving up any of their young players in return. But will they actually be able to re-sign them this summer? Both Samuel Dalembert and Kyle Korver are restricted free agents. Dalembert could command a starting salary in the $8 million to $9 million range. Korver might be able to persuade a team to give him more than the mid-level exception. As it stands, the Sixers' payroll already is topping out at $68 million next year. Is ownership willing to top $80 million to keep Dalembert and Korver?

It will be interesting to see what a number of the top young, restricted free agents command in the open market next year. Lots of teams still covet Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Dalembert. How much are teams willing to pay for upside, and how much are the Wizards, Bulls and Sixers willing to match?

Looking for some mid-level free-agent bargains? Here's an early list of who might sign with your team, even if it's over the cap: Donyell Marshall, Earl Watson, Antonio Daniels, Marko Jaric, Damon Stoudamire, Jeff McInnis, Dan Dickau, Brevin Knight and Kareem Rush.


Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.

[ducks]

onics head coach Nate McMillan and GM Rick Sund are in the last year of their contracts. You'd think, given the team's stellar play this year, that both would have nice fat extensions by now. However, with the team's ownership situation a little muddy and eight players heading into free agency, the Sonics are waiting for … well, no one's sure what they're waiting for.

sonics are going to be a new team next year

[Ballcox]

Kori, thanks for posting those insider articles (from ESPN.com, right?). I can't convince the wife to spend the extra $ to subscribe for the 'insider' articles, so it's nice to come to this site and be able to read them, again much appreciated!

respect the 'fro :fro