The Kobe Effect (Not as Clutch As You Think)

[Amuseddaysleeper]

http://basketbawful.com/

Word of the Day: The Kobe Effect
By Basketbawful



Clutch? Or just the Kobe Effect?

The Kobe Effect (ko-bee eff-ekt) noun. The state that arises when a player creates the popular notion that he is clutch by taking so many late-game shots that he inevitably hits enough to create this impression, even when it is not true.

Usage example: People think Jamal Crawford is clutch because a lot of his late game field goals made SportsCenter, but that's just The Kobe Effect happening; Crawford is actually a terrible late-game shooter.

Word history: The word was coined on the Be The Three blog in a post titled Pop Quiz: Down Three With 12 Seconds Left, What Do You Do? Also: Introducing The Kobe Effect. The Kobe Effect is said to have the strongest influence on radio talk show hosts and lazy sports columnists.

This effect could easily be named after Chauncey Billups or Jamal Crawford, but Kobe Bryant is the true progenitor of sort-of-false clutchness. Has Kobe made his share of big shots? Absolutely. He even made a game-winning three last week against Houston. He's convinced some league observers (often the most annoyingly passionate fans you'll meet) that he's the greatest clutch shooter since MJ. But is he really? Or does he hog all the late-game shots for the Lakers, thereby guaranteeing he becomes known as "clutch," even if he shoots a lower percentage -- and turns the ball over more -- with the game on the line?

Last year, Kobe ranked second (behind LeBron) in clutch scoring, pouring in 51.8 points per 48 minutes, according to 82games. But he was jacking up 33.6 shots per 48 minutes, third most in the league (again behind LeBron and, absurdly, Jamaal Tinsley). His "clutch" field goal percentage was 44.8 percent--right around his career average. That's pretty solid--especially considering the degree of difficulty on those shots is higher than in the normal course of play.

But here are Kobe's "clutch" shooting percentages from the last five seasons going backwards: 44.8, 43.6, 36.4, 32.4, 39.6.

That's not great. But let's narrow the sample size and look at the clutchiest of clutch shots--potentially game-winning shots in the last 30 seconds. How does Kobe do there? From 2003 through 2006, Kobe made seven such shots -- tied for ninth most in the league. But he fired up 32 shots, the highest total among all players. That adds up to a shooting percentage of 21.9 percent, well below the league average of 29 percent. Kobe also had zero assists in game-winning situations during that span.

Other supposedly clutch shooters on this list: Chauncey Billups, Mr. Big Shot, hit 5 of 26 shots (19 percent), and Jamal Crawford, who made so many last-second shots even the New York Times fell for it and labeled him clutch, went 6-for-19 (31 percent).

It's not that Kobe's a bad clutch shooter. Last year, Kobe shot 46.7 percent in "super clutch" situations, which 82games defines as less than two minutes in the fourth or OT, score within three points. That's impressive, especially since he did so while firing nearly 35 shots per 48 minutes, the fourth-highest rate in the league. But he had the third-worst turnover rate in the entire NBA (more than nine per 48 minutes) in such situations. (Just for fun: Guess who took even more shots per minute than Kobe in "super clutch" situations? Jamal Crawford--and he made a whopping 19 percent of them.)

Oh -- and there's always that infamous Game 7 against Phoenix in 2006, when Mr. Clutch decided not to shoot in the second half in order to show the world that his teammates stunk. Now that's clutch.

Conclusion: Kobe's clutch shooting percentage is significantly lower than his overall shooting percentage, but people believe he's the greatest clutch shooter since MJ because of The Kobe Effect.

Other benefactors of the Kobe Effect: Chauncey Billups, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, who takes almost every big shot down the stretch for the Hawks but is making just 33 percent of them this year after sinking only 29.7 percent of clutch shots last season. But the aura ofThe Kobe Effect surrounds him thanks to a handful of clutch shots he made against Boston in the playoffs last season.

The Truly Clutch: Manu Ginobli, LeBron James.

[mogrovejo]

I wrote more or less the same is some other thread. Kobe's clutchness is a myth created by selective memory - people overvalue buzzer-beaters and undervalue the amount of time Kobe has the ball on his hands and shoots it.

[Holmes_Fans]

http://www.82games.com/0809/CSORT5.HTM

[IronMexican]

I wouldn't want anyone else taking the shot at the end of a game right now.

[jman3000]

I consider him clutch based on the fact that he usually plays extremely well against the Spurs. I couldn't give 2 shits if he's not a clutch player against any other team in the league. The fact is he's clutch against the Spurs and that's all that matters. His ability to miss most of his shots for the first 36 minutes of a game, then magically start nailing difficult 3's in people's faces pisses me off to no end.

[Lakers_55]

I wouldn't want anyone else taking the shot at the end of a game right now.

exactly. haters have to have something to write about to make themselves feel better.

[JamStone]

Not a bad article but also somewhat skewed. There are other factors you have to consider when looking at all those numbers. First, who else besides Kobe is going to take a clutch shot on the Lakers? Especially from 2004-05 to 2006-07 before Fisher returned and Gasol was acquired last season. Of course Kobe is going to take that many clutch shots. He's "that" guy. And, then of course FG% in clutch situations are going to go down, the article even mentions how it will be. Defense tightens up, sometimes double and triple teams come and Kobe in the past still felt compelled to take shots against double teams because he didn't trust his teammates and the level of difficulty of those shots are higher. Yeah, of course he'll miss his share.

And, while I'm a huge fan of Manu Ginobili and he certainly has his clutch moments, at least acknowledge that he has a different situation than Kobe has had the previous 5 or so seasons because Manu almost always gets defended with single coverage because defenses cannot collapse off of Duncan and Parker or sag off the three point shooters the Spurs puts out in those situations. Again, before last year, Kobe had teammates like Smush Parker and Luke Walton out on the court in clutch situations. Manu is clutch, don't get me wrong. But, as it pertains to Kobe's situation, it's probably a bit unfair to evaluate Kobe in similar fashion.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Not a bad article but also somewhat skewed. There are other factors you have to consider when looking at all those numbers. First, who else besides Kobe is going to take a clutch shot on the Lakers? Especially from 2004-05 to 2006-07 before Fisher returned and Gasol was acquired last season. Of course Kobe is going to take that many clutch shots. He's "that" guy. And, then of course FG% in clutch situations are going to go down, the article even mentions how it will be. Defense tightens up, sometimes double and triple teams come and Kobe in the past still felt compelled to take shots against double teams because he didn't trust his teammates and the level of difficulty of those shots are higher. Yeah, of course he'll miss his share.

And, while I'm a huge fan of Manu Ginobili and he certainly has his clutch moments, at least acknowledge that he has a different situation than Kobe has had the previous 5 or so seasons because Manu almost always gets defended with single coverage because defenses cannot collapse off of Duncan and Parker or sag off the three point shooters the Spurs puts out in those situations. Again, before last year, Kobe had teammates like Smush Parker and Luke Walton out on the court in clutch situations. Manu is clutch, don't get me wrong. But, as it pertains to Kobe's situation, it's probably a bit unfair to evaluate Kobe in similar fashion.

:tu JamStone delivers once again

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

What little credibility the article manages to muster is completely undone by trying to pass off Lebron as "truly clutch" compared to Kobe. He's a poster boy for the precise phenomenon that he's crucifying Kobe for - a superstar player who is head and shoulders above his teammates. He's the only one on that team that should have the ball in his hands with the game on the line, and in his career he's missed just as many game winners as he's hit, if not more.

Hell, even Manu's fucked up royally before. Dirk for an And 1!

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

This is the dumbest thread ever. There's a difference between hating Kobe and saying retarded shit about him, and saying he isn't clutch qualifies as retarded shit.

How the fuck is LeBron clutch? If I had a dollar for every 4th quarter free throw he's missed I'd never have to work.

[Allanon]

http://basketbawful.com/

Word of the Day: The Kobe Effect
By Basketbawful

This is even worse than Hoopsworld.



Absolutely. He even made a game-winning three last week against Houston.

Selective memory...Indiana game-winner and almost had the game winner in San Antonio (screwed by Roger Mason/Fish)...all within a week's time.



He's convinced some league observers (often the most annoyingly passionate fans you'll meet) that he's the greatest clutch shooter since MJ. But is he really?

Last year, Kobe ranked second (behind LeBron) in clutch scoring, pouring in 51.8 points per 48 minutes, according to 82games. But he was jacking up 33.6 shots per 48 minutes, third most in the league (again behind LeBron and, absurdly, Jamaal Tinsley). His "clutch" field goal percentage was 44.8 percent--right around his career average. That's pretty solid--especially considering the degree of difficulty on those shots is higher than in the normal course of play.

But here are Kobe's "clutch" shooting percentages from the last five seasons going backwards: 44.8, 43.6, 36.4, 32.4, 39.6.


At the start of the season, NBA.com asked which player they want taking the last shot in a game, 86% of all GM's chose Kobe Bryant. Wow, Kobe, pulled the fleece on those guys but couldn't fool basketbawlful :D



Conclusion: Kobe's clutch shooting percentage is significantly lower than his overall shooting percentage, but people believe he's the greatest clutch shooter since MJ because of The Kobe Effect.

WTH is "The Kobe Effect"? People think Kobe's the best clutch shooter since MJ because he's tied with MJ in game winners.



The Truly Clutch: Manu Ginobli, LeBron James.

When was the last time LeBron made a game winning shot? Even JVG says Lebron is the best player in the world...but for 43 minutes. He'd still take Kobe in the last five.

Manu is pretty clutch but he hasn't had a game winner in awhile.

[DrHouse]

2008 Olympic Gold Medal Finals Game. The best NBA superstars the USA could assemble. Each player a star on their respective teams and the go-to guy in the clutch.

Who do they all defer to in the final minutes?

Kobe Bryant.

Who delivers?

Kobe Bryant.

[IronMexican]

And besides, another Kobe thread? You guys are asking for the trolls now.

[JamStone]

This is the dumbest thread ever.

Don't think the OP necessarily agreed with the article but was just posting it. Criticize the article, not the thread.

[Donkeybong]

2008 Olympic Gold Medal Finals Game. The best NBA superstars the USA could assemble. Each player a star on their respective teams and the go-to guy in the clutch.

Who do they all defer to in the final minutes?

Kobe Bryant.

Who delivers?

Kobe Bryant.

/thread

[MarHill]

As a Spurs fan, I have to be objective in this post.

Kobe is clutch!!!

As much as I didn't want to write that last sentence....truth is truth and it can't be changed.

The Gold Medal Olympic game this summer...showed amongst the best NBA players who they wanted to have the ball when the game is on the line. Period!!

Also, on their Texas road trip last week...he made the 3 pointer over Battier to win game in Houston and almost the game winner in SA.

He's a clutch and to write an article otherwise and make an argument for other guys....is silly!!

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

Don't think the OP necessarily agreed with the article but was just posting it. Criticize the article, not the thread.

K fine retarded article whatever.

[1Parker1]

I think the thing that gives Kobe the reputation as the "clutchest" player and/or the player who you'd want to take the last shot...he's arguarably the only player in the league who can consistently make and take a difficult jump shot in the closing minutes. Guys like Lebron and Wade generally need the benefit of a ref to get an And 1 in those situations and you know they are going to drive to the rim. But I've seen Kobe make the most difficult, off balance jumper or 3 point shot with someone like a Bruce Bowen playing perfect defense on him and not giving him in an inch.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

Clutchest player in basketball IMO is Dwayne Wade.

[Medvedenko]

Dwade is clutch, for sure.

[stretch]

Statistically, Carmello is pretty clutch too. Shoots 63% in those situations, 64% from three, and has the highest pp48mins. But has like 64% of them off of assists or something... I would still rather have Kobe, Lebron, or Wade.

[zinagray]

Lakers suck!

[stretch]

Lakers suck!

like your face

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Don't think the OP necessarily agreed with the article but was just posting it. Criticize the article, not the thread.

Exactly, I didn't write the article.

[ElNono]

And, while I'm a huge fan of Manu Ginobili and he certainly has his clutch moments, at least acknowledge that he has a different situation than Kobe has had the previous 5 or so seasons because Manu almost always gets defended with single coverage because defenses cannot collapse off of Duncan and Parker or sag off the three point shooters the Spurs puts out in those situations. Again, before last year, Kobe had teammates like Smush Parker and Luke Walton out on the court in clutch situations. Manu is clutch, don't get me wrong. But, as it pertains to Kobe's situation, it's probably a bit unfair to evaluate Kobe in similar fashion.

Actually, they do collapse on him. The difference is that he actually trusts and passes the ball to teammates on that situation, unlike Kome who forces the issue. There's no better example than TD's 3 pointer against Phoenix in the playoffs last year.

And FWIW, Kome is clutch...

[JamStone]

Like I said, "almost always." And, a D'antoni coached team isn't the typical defense Manu and the Spurs face in those situations. It's more rare for a team to leave Tim Duncan completely wide open, even at the three point line. And, yes, Kobe hasn't trusted his teammates in the past in those situations, particularly the previous 4 or so seasons. But, we've also seen Kobe give up the ball to Shaq, Robert Horry, Rick Fox, and Derek Fisher in those moments when the Lakers were winning titles. If Manu's choices were to pass it to Smush Parker and Brian Cook and Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic and Kwame Brown, I would want Manu to take a tough, well defended fade away jumper over a double team too.

[IronMexican]

Actually, they do collapse on him. The difference is that he actually trusts and passes the ball to teammates on that situation, unlike Kome who forces the issue. There's no better example than TD's 3 pointer against Phoenix in the playoffs last year.

And FWIW, Kome is clutch...

Really? I was expecting Manu to shoot a 2 down 3 with under 5 seconds to go.

[Killakobe81]

Not a bad article but also somewhat skewed. There are other factors you have to consider when looking at all those numbers. First, who else besides Kobe is going to take a clutch shot on the Lakers? Especially from 2004-05 to 2006-07 before Fisher returned and Gasol was acquired last season. Of course Kobe is going to take that many clutch shots. He's "that" guy. And, then of course FG% in clutch situations are going to go down, the article even mentions how it will be. Defense tightens up, sometimes double and triple teams come and Kobe in the past still felt compelled to take shots against double teams because he didn't trust his teammates and the level of difficulty of those shots are higher. Yeah, of course he'll miss his share.

And, while I'm a huge fan of Manu Ginobili and he certainly has his clutch moments, at least acknowledge that he has a different situation than Kobe has had the previous 5 or so seasons because Manu almost always gets defended with single coverage because defenses cannot collapse off of Duncan and Parker or sag off the three point shooters the Spurs puts out in those situations. Again, before last year, Kobe had teammates like Smush Parker and Luke Walton out on the court in clutch situations. Manu is clutch, don't get me wrong. But, as it pertains to Kobe's situation, it's probably a bit unfair to evaluate Kobe in similar fashion.

Again I agree with Jamstone ...because he always reads between the lines and seeks truth ...though I know Kobe has missed a lot of clutch shots ..even MJ points to the many misses he has on exactly why he is unafaid in those situations (one of his most famous quotes) ...i also agree Manu is the 2nd most clutch on the Spurs ...and one of the most clutch in the league... but his clutch has A LOT to do with the big man afaraid to leave Duncan which Kobe hasnt had before reently and Lebron even with a healthy Z does not have ...but i do think Manu is truly clutch (like Lebron, Kobe, Chauncey, Duncan) but so are the other guys. But Duncan has hit his big shots the falling jumper over Shaq the big 3 last year as the main focus of the other team's defense ...even though he has 3 all-star teammates he gets the focus of the other team's best big man and doubles he has hit many clutch shots and i think he is the most clutch big man, Kobe & manu the most clutch guards Lebron the most clutch forward ...

[Galileo]

Duncan has 37 clutch rebounds this season, second only to Okafor with 38.

[JoeTait75]

When was the last time LeBron made a game winning shot?

Last January 30th in Portland IIRC.

[timvp]

I love Kobe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[1Parker1]

I love Kobe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

:lol :lol

[JamStone]

I love Kobe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Short. Clever. Effective. I'm impressed.

:toast

[Obstructed_View]

Did the writer of that article actually suggest that Lebron is "truly" clutch? :lol

Someone should run the numbers on Shane Battier. Seems like he always hits the big shots he gets.

[angelbelow]

well shot wise i actually agree with the article. but kobe does so much more in the clutch. the bottomline is he is dangerous when the game is close.

[Bob Lanier]

The notion of "clutch" is and always has been ridiculous.

There are actually chokers, and Kobe Bryant isn't one. Beyond that lies luck.

[KidCongo]

Last January 30th in Portland IIRC.

Jan 23rd at Oracle.

[JoeTait75]

Jan 23rd at Oracle.

:king

[Kobe™]

Not a bad article but also somewhat skewed. There are other factors you have to consider when looking at all those numbers. First, who else besides Kobe is going to take a clutch shot on the Lakers? Especially from 2004-05 to 2006-07 before Fisher returned and Gasol was acquired last season. Of course Kobe is going to take that many clutch shots. He's "that" guy. And, then of course FG% in clutch situations are going to go down, the article even mentions how it will be. Defense tightens up, sometimes double and triple teams come and Kobe in the past still felt compelled to take shots against double teams because he didn't trust his teammates and the level of difficulty of those shots are higher. Yeah, of course he'll miss his share.

And, while I'm a huge fan of Manu Ginobili and he certainly has his clutch moments, at least acknowledge that he has a different situation than Kobe has had the previous 5 or so seasons because Manu almost always gets defended with single coverage because defenses cannot collapse off of Duncan and Parker or sag off the three point shooters the Spurs puts out in those situations. Again, before last year, Kobe had teammates like Smush Parker and Luke Walton out on the court in clutch situations. Manu is clutch, don't get me wrong. But, as it pertains to Kobe's situation, it's probably a bit unfair to evaluate Kobe in similar fashion.

An intelligent Detroit fan?

Good job.

[Michael Jordan.]

:lol