Was Russia behind cyber-attack on Kyrgyzstan?

[Winehole23]

Was Russia behind cyber-attack on Kyrgyzstan? (http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Intrigue_surrounds_cyberattack_on_remote_Kyrgyzsta n_0128.html)


http://www.rawstory.com/images/new/kyrgyz_protest.jpgThe small Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan, which lies on the border between China and Russia, was hit by a mysterious cyber-attack ten days ago which took out more than 80% of its internet capacity. The country's two main internet service providers are now back online, but the source of the attack remains mysterious.

It is known that the attack originated (http://intelfusion.net/wordpress/?p=509) from Russian IP's, and an article in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal attributes (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123310906904622741.html) them to a Russian-based "cyber-militia." Russia was blamed for similar denial-of-service attacks on Estonia in 2007 and on Georgia during last year's brief war between those two nations. However, the Journal was unable to obtain comment from Russian, Kyrgyz, or United States officials.

The United States is far more deeply involved in Kyrgyzstan than is generally recognized and has been using an air force base there since 2001 to supply its operations in Afghanistan. One theory about the cyber-attack links it with recent Russian pressure on Kyrgyzstan to terminate US use of that base.

Both Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE50G1A220090117) and Agence France-Presse (http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/russia-presses-kyrgyzstan-to-close-us-base/2009/01/18/1232213448844.html) recently cited Kyrgyz sources as saying that a statement announcing the closing of the US base in exchange for Russian financial aid was imminent.

However, General David Petraeus insisted during a trip to the region last week, "We look forward to discussing the future of the base there and we certainly have no plans to change anything, frankly."

Following talks with the Kyrgyz prime minister, Petraeus added (http://www.rferl.org/content/Air_Base_At_Center_Of_Kyrgyz_Talks_With_Moscow_Was hington_/1371962.html) that "we did not discuss such possibilities at all" and said that a team of US officials would be arriving (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2009/01/mil-090119-rianovosti01.htm) in Kyrgyzstan shortly to discuss expanding US use of the base.

A second, very different, theory about the attack is that it may have represented an attempt by the Kyrgyz government to clamp down on its own fledgling opposition movement.

The previous Kyrgyz head of state was overthrown (http://www.countercurrents.org/kyrgystan-peters310305.htm) in 2005 -- in an uprising heavily supported by American non-governmental organizations, such as the International Republican Institute (http://www.iri.org/eurasia/kyrgyzstan.asp) and the National Democratic Institute -- but now discontent is growing again.

EurasiaNet noted (http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav012109a.shtml) last week that "as Kyrgyzstan’s feeble opposition unites into a new coalition, its leaders are coming under increasing pressure from the authorities. The state general prosecutor has launched criminal investigations involving at least four opposition leaders in recent weeks. ... Analysts are calling the inquiries politically motivated."

According to Wired, "during Kyrgyzstan's 'Tulip Revolution' in 2005, demonstrators often depended on cell phones and text messages to organize." Wired suggests that the Kyrgyz authorities may now fear that the internet will be used in the same way.

[ClingingMars]

i love me some Soviet Union

-Mars

[The Reckoning]

lol Russia

[LaMarcus Bryant]

Hyeah, I bet their electronic militia uses 1990's era supercomputers (that we provided the funding for).

[The Reckoning]

F. id be looking east to china. those bastards already hacked into the white house.

[LnGrrrR]

Kyrgyzstan isn't actually that bad. I've been there, learned a little Russian from the natives while deployed.

America REALLY needs to step up its cyber-defense. REALLY badly.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Especially consider the Chinese outnumber us a million to one, and they have a cyber army of like 200 million constantly spying on every transaction, every porn site we visit, every communication we make.

[Winehole23]

Kyrgyzstan vows to close key US air base (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jkM5zEHc_-c5vbVJM4bs0PHEE7gg)

19 hours ago
MOSCOW (AFP) — Kyrgyzstan vowed Tuesday it would order the closure of a US airbase on its soil whose presence has irritated Moscow, on the same day it received a generous Russian financial aid package.


The Manas air base serves as a vital supply route for NATO forces in Afghanistan but its location deep in former Soviet territory has annoyed an increasingly assertive Russia keen on restoring its influence in Central Asia.


"The government of Kyrgyzstan has taken a decision over the ending of the time period for the American base to remain on the territory of Kyrgyzstan," President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said after talks with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev.


"The decision will be announced very soon," he added, in comments broadcast on state television. No timeframe was announced, although some reports have suggested the base will be given six months to close.


The United States immediately underlined the importance of the base, hoping that it would remain open and calling it "hugely important" for the resupply of US forces in Afghanistan.


Coinciding with the announcement by Bakiyev, Russia agreed to a financial aid package settling an estimated 180-million-dollar debt owed by cash-strapped Kyrgyzstan to Moscow.


Russia also agreed to extend an interest free grant worth 150 million dollars to Kyrgyzstan as well as a loan worth two billion dollars, Russian news agencies reported.
There was no official mention of a link between the base's closure and the aid, but there has been intense speculation that Moscow has been using its financial muscle to get its way in its former Soviet territory.


The Kommersant newspaper said Russia "has laid down a strict condition: the provision of Russian financial help should lead to an official announcement by Kyrgyzstan on renouncing its obligations on the presence of the US airbase."


Bakiyev also grumbled that by contrast the United States had been less than forthcoming in giving aid in compensation for Bishkek's hosting of the base.
He said that when the base had been set up to assist coalition forces fighting to oust the Taliban from Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks it had only been supposed to exist for one or two years.


"Now eight years have passed. We discussed the question about economic compensation more than once with the United States but we did not find understanding," he said.


Medvedev said the base's future was a Kyrgyz issue but that "without this we would be able to join forces to enable a stabilisation of the situation in the region."
The base at Manas airport near Bishkek is a supply point for Western operations in Afghanistan and had grown in importance as Washington steps up Afghan operations and faced difficulties with another route through Pakistan.


The importance of the northern route into Afghanistan was underlined as suspected militants blew up a key bridge in northwest Pakistan on Tuesday, suspending a NATO supply line.


"We are hopeful that we can continue our good relationship with the Kyrgyz government, and can continue to use Manas in support of our operations in Afghanistan," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said in Washington.
"It is a hugely important air base for us."


On a visit to Kyrgyzstan on Monday a NATO envoy, Robert Simmons, stressed the base's importance, saying it would be a matter for "regret" if it closed.
Paul Quinn-Judge, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, said that Bakiyev was desperate for aid amid mounting problems, including an energy crisis and declining remittances from migrant workers in Russia.


There is also the prospect of elections due next year but possibly to be held sooner.
"The government is in serious financial straits. It's facing economic crisis.
"Bakiyev is haggling very hard. Quite clearly he needs the money. The unanswered question is how far he's going to be willing to go to get the money," Quinn-Judge said by phone from Bishkek.

[LnGrrrR]

Pfft. They were threatening that in 2005 when I went there too. I seriously doubt if they'll go through with it. That base is a jumping off point for missions into Afghanistan.

Besides, I liked Kyrgyzstan. The people were friendly and taught me some basic Russian.

[Winehole23]

Pfft. They were threatening that in 2005 when I went there too. I seriously doubt if they'll go through with it. That base is a jumping off point for missions into Afghanistan.

Besides, I liked Kyrgyzstan. The people were friendly and taught me some basic Russian.Will they turn down the heavy bribe the Russians are dangling?

[Winehole23]

In any case, what's happening now bids up the importance of Kyrgzstan. The closing of the Khyber supply line already bid it up anyway.

[Winehole23]

Bakiyev made the announcement:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a45p.N1wLfyo&refer=us

But US officials insist the negotiations are ongoing, and no official order to leave the base has been received.

[LnGrrrR]

That's almost exactly what happened in '05, if I recall. There was talk of the base shutting down while I was there, actually, which was right after the civil unrest/riots.

We'll see, but it's rare that the US releases their hooks on a country once they get them in.

[Winehole23]

This way, they have us and the Russians both over a barrel. In their position, that's how I'd consider it.

[LnGrrrR]

They certainly are strategically placed. Have you looked at a map of the Middle East? We obviously can't go through Iran. We could go through Pakistan, from Al Dhafra AB (Abu Dhabi, UAE) or Qatar, but I believe that would be a longer flight. (The pilot would have to fly due east, then north to avoid Iran airspace.)

Also, it's most likely our closest base to a border of China.

[Winehole23]

Besides, I liked Kyrgyzstan. The people were friendly and taught me some basic Russian.Got any pix you could share?

[LnGrrrR]

Uhm... I don't think I have any digital photos, just disposable. I still have 'nesting' doll type figurines that I bought from there. And I learned some great phrases from the third nationals:

"Klasnaya popka!" - Nice ass!
"Budte zdarova" - To your health! (a cheer)
"Suka" - bitch
"Zatkanees" - shut up!

The first words anyone teaches a foreigner are swear words lol.

[Winehole23]

Didn't mean to put you on the spot, LnGrrR. I'm just curious. Kyrgyzstan conjures no pictures for me.

[LnGrrrR]

Look up "Bishkek". That's their capital city. I got to go there two or three times while I was deployed. Helped out a children's hospital and went on a museum tour. It's nice enough. I mean, not like Times Square, but still modern.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

You're right about 2005, but that was before Russia was being this overtly aggressive in its dealings abroad. Remember, every base in that area that has been effectively shut down has been largely because of Russian pressure, like ostracizing it from the CIS.

[LnGrrrR]

True that LaMarcus. I guess it all depends on how much the US wants to pony up for that base.

[Winehole23]

http://features.csmonitor.com/globalnews/2009/02/06/kyrgyzstan-us-base-closure-final/

[LnGrrrR]

Hm... well this should change the war on terror a good deal.. and I have no idea what avenue we'll use now to get into Afghanistan. They talk of opening up a base in Uzbekistan (or maybe one of the other -stans), but that could lead to the same issues with Russia.

There's a good chance that we'll beef up operations in Qatar and UAE, but the latter is a relatively small base.

The only other option I could see would be to ask Pakistan if we could open up a forward operating base there. But there could not be a worse possible time to ask for that, and I really doubt Pakistan would let us have troops on their soil. Heck, we should be happy they're still letting us use their airspace.

We're friends with India right? Maybe they can let us make a base there...lol

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I will admit, i'm half speaking out of my ass, but I have always thought the kyrgyzstan base was chiefly for long term NATO purposes, and the reports of its necessity in the Afghan war are dubious.

Do we really use it THAT often as a stationing ground for that many missions? I'd like to see some concrete facts besides just the sentence "it is a crucial base for afghan missions".

Because when you think about it, if it comes down to money, even in this recession, we should win out.
If the US thinks it just isn't worth it, then I do not think it is or was ever that necessary to the Afghanistan war.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Hm... well this should change the war on terror a good deal.. and I have no idea what avenue we'll use now to get into Afghanistan. They talk of opening up a base in Uzbekistan (or maybe one of the other -stans), but that could lead to the same issues with Russia.

There's a good chance that we'll beef up operations in Qatar and UAE, but the latter is a relatively small base.

The only other option I could see would be to ask Pakistan if we could open up a forward operating base there. But there could not be a worse possible time to ask for that, and I really doubt Pakistan would let us have troops on their soil. Heck, we should be happy they're still letting us use their airspace.

We're friends with India right? Maybe they can let us make a base there...lol

A base in India would be nice, and not just for the Afghan War.

The Khyber Pass must be controlled. We have been attacking Pakistani soil since late 2007 at least, and it is no coincidence that Obama included the word "pakistan" in his answers to the terror front.

I say we shell the ever living shit out of that entire region, and to hell with that bull shit paper tiger pakistani government. If these asshole ragheads did not have nukes, we would have done this years ago.

Pakistan is destined for fragmentation IMO, and the gaza-esque fragment will be that that contains Khyber Pass. Like CBF always says......bring back the bomb.


What is interesting is that Russia had reportedly warmed up to helping the US war on terror, with Afghanistan mentioned in particular. This was reported days after Obama's inauguration. I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be something if Russia somehow took a role in this stupid war to rack up the most muslims kills. Would be very bad for the US long term, but good in the short and moderate term. I know, pipe dream.

What the US has completely not taken advantage of with their stupid, vapid Afghan strategies thus far is that both Russia and China have a long term interest in a stable Afghanistan. Yet....it's US and NATO men that are being killed by these ignorant religion of peace fuckheads.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Another thing that is very very scary, is that all of our progress in Iraq can still be easily reversed, and if we do somehow transfer all the manpower from Iraq to Afghanistan, the vacuum can feasibly lead to a sequence of events that can undo all the progress.

So basically the presidential candidate in 2016 could be like "I will focus on Iraq, change is coming in our foreign policy" etc etc
It truly will be a see-saw war without end, with Iran as the fulcrum.

[Winehole23]

A base in India would be nice, and not just for the Afghan War.

The Khyber Pass must be controlled. We have been attacking Pakistani soil since late 2007 at least, and it is no coincidence that Obama included the word "pakistan" in his answers to the terror front.



The shocking intelligence assessment shared by Moscow reveals that almost half of the US supplies passing through Pakistan is pilfered by motley groups of Taliban militants, petty traders and plain thieves. The US Army is getting burgled in broad daylight and can't do much about it.http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=112487&page=4&highlight=obama+buchanan



OTOH:


Way ahead What is to be done? First, we need to realise that the Afghan war is a classic Clausewitzean affair politics by other means. The U.S. has ensured a permanent presence in the strategic highlands of the Pamir mountains. Even the current highly simulated disruption of transit routes for NATO supplies via the Pakistani territory is providing a pretext for the establishment of fresh U.S. military presence in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and in the Caucasus for the first time ever. While the U.S.’ close partnership with the Pakistani military continues intact, the search for new supply routes becomes the perfect backdrop for ruthlessly expanding American influence in the Russian and Chinese (and Iranian) backyards in Central Asia and the Caucasus.http://www.thehindu.com/2008/12/25/stories/2008122555130800.htm


I say we shell the ever living shit out of that entire region, and to hell with that bull shit paper tiger pakistani government. If these asshole ragheads did not have nukes, we would have done this years ago.AQ Khan, released (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/06/AR2009020603730.html) from house arrest.



What is interesting is that Russia had reportedly warmed up to helping the US war on terror, with Afghanistan mentioned in particular. This was reported days after Obama's inauguration. I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be something if Russia somehow took a role in this stupid war to rack up the most muslims kills. Would be very bad for the US long term, but good in the short and moderate term. I know, pipe dream. Russia is making overtures to both us and to Karzai, who has fallen out of grace with Obama.


What the US has completely not taken advantage of with their stupid, vapid Afghan strategies thus far is that both Russia and China have a long term interest in a stable Afghanistan.It shows (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation).

[Nbadan]

Another thing that is very very scary, is that all of our progress in Iraq can still be easily reversed, and if we do somehow transfer all the manpower from Iraq to Afghanistan, the vacuum can feasibly lead to a sequence of events that can undo all the progress.

All you have to do is look at the success record of 'arming militias for peace' in South and Central America....this isn't going to end good no matter what we do....we'll be back in Iraq in 10 years...but we may be able to resupply our military...

[The Reckoning]

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

The future Asian Union?

[The Reckoning]

Pakistan is destined for fragmentation IMO, and the gaza-esque fragment will be that that contains Khyber Pass. Like CBF always says......bring back the bomb.


CBF is itching for a Terminator 2-esque ending to his (and everybody elses) life

[Winehole23]

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

The future Asian Union?Could be eventually, but I doubt it. Too many large countries. For now, it's a regional security bloc. Not that it's progressed much beyond talk and a few joint exercises.

[The Reckoning]

after watching a continent, which has been plagued by two world wars and was the birthplace of nationalism, come together to form the Union, i wouldn't be surprised if China, Russia and the rest of Asia assemble as the "Army from the East."

[Cant_Be_Faded]

CBF is itching for a Terminator 2-esque ending to his (and everybody elses) life

Skynet
fights
back.

[mookie2001]

what does the reckoning know hes in 8th grade?

[The Reckoning]

what does the reckoning know hes in 8th grade?

for a 15 1/2 year old, i know a lot

[LnGrrrR]

Do we really use it THAT often as a stationing ground for that many missions? I'd like to see some concrete facts besides just the sentence "it is a crucial base for afghan missions".


I'm not sure where you could get statistics for that sort of thing. I don't think they publicly share the number of sorties flown annually. I'm only speaking from personal experience, and looking at the logistics of the thing geographically.

[Winehole23]

Kyrgyzstan turns up the heat, will vote early on Manas base closure (http://wire.antiwar.com/2009/02/17/kyrgyz-parliament-to-vote-early-on-us-air-base-3/).

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Fuck 'em. Russia is still weak right now because of the oil price, and this is still a relatively low-priority foreign issue when you consider all the other shit that has gone down since we invaded Afghanistan.

I *gasp* have faith that we will find a way around this.

[Winehole23]

Fuck 'em. Russia is still weak right now because of the oil price, and this is still a relatively low-priority foreign issue when you consider all the other shit that has gone down since we invaded Afghanistan.Russia may not be as rich as they were, but I'm not sure I'd call them weak. They're still a nuclear power, and they've got Europe by the short and curlies when it comes to energy.

Did we lift a finger against them in Georgia last year?


I *gasp* have faith that we will find a way around this.I do too, but I find the twists and turns intriguing. It's the "Great game" angle that interests me.

I'm not convinced at this point that Afghanistan is even the main objective of our strategy. It's more of a foothold in the neighborhood of the Russia and Iran; a pretext for extending our influence regionally.

[LnGrrrR]

Looks like they voted to close Manas... kinda sad. I liked that base and the Kyrgyz people.

Should be interesting to see where the US goes from here. Oman? Pakistan? India?

[Winehole23]

Aaand we're back in (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/26/world/europe/26briefs-Russia.html?ref=todayspaper), after Kyrgyzstan upped the rent and added a few clauses to the lease.

[LnGrrrR]

Aaand we're back in (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/26/world/europe/26briefs-Russia.html?ref=todayspaper), after Kyrgyzstan upped the rent and added a few clauses to the lease.

Haha. Money makes the world go round.

I'm happy about this though, as it's a good jumping-off point, plus the Kyrgyz people seem to be pretty good/nice on average.

[Winehole23]

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Tuesday emphasized the importance of an air base near the Kyrgyz capital to the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan, underscoring the Obama administration’s hope that the United States might be able to retain access to the facility through the end of the Afghan war.

The current agreement with the Kyrgyz government, which was signed in 2009, calls for the United States to vacate the Manas transit center (http://www.manas.afcent.af.mil/) by July 2014.




Kyrgyzstan’s new president, Almazbek Atambayev, has said he intends to enforce that agreement, and Busurmankul Tabaldiev, secretary of the Kyrgyz Defense Council, reiterated that message in a meeting Tuesday evening with Panetta, saying that “there should be no military mission” at the airport after July 2014.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/panetta-in-kyrgyzstan-to-seek-continued-use-of-air-base/2012/03/13/gIQANSCu9R_story.html

[Winehole23]

Russia's foreign minister on Wednesday endorsed a proposal to allow NATO use of a southern Russian air base as a hub for transport of supplies to Afghanistan (http://www.reuters.com/places/afghanistan) and suggested it was premature to withdraw troops from the war-torn country.
Sergei Lavrov said the proposal to lease NATO an air base in the Volga River city of Ulyanovsk for non-lethal NATO supply transits to Afghanistan via Central Asia must get formal government approval but is in Russia's "national interest."


It would be the first deal allowing U.S.-led coalition forces a logistical base on Russian territory rather than simply a corridor for Afghan supply transports.


The proposal to use the base for a "combined" air, road and rail traffic to Afghanistan came originally from NATO in May 2011. It requires the Russian cabinet's go-ahead but no date for a meeting on the issue has been set.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-russia-afghanistan-idUSBRE82D16P20120314

[Winehole23]

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

The future Asian Union?Turkey signs up.

http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/12367

[The Reckoning]

Turkey getting desperate for some union love. interesting that they can be a part of the SCO and NATO. i could easily see some middle eastern countries following suit, however, there are human rights issues that need to be addressed before anyone can join one of the clubs.to my understanding, that's why in part Turkey wasn't able to be in the EU in the first place.

But yes there will be a MAJOR conflict of interest here regarding missile defense.