2010... An Okey-Doke???

[Blackjack]

Just might be.

Amidst the rumors of Vince to the Spurs, the pining for Rasheed, and the numerous other trade proposals, I got to thinking about something I've mentioned before.

What really are the odds the Spurs could land a top-tier free-agent in 10'?

I mean, how many faces of their respected franchises ever really leave their team.

Shaq obviously comes to mind; leaving for the bright lights of L.A. Nash left and became the face of a franchise; only after it was believed his body was in decline and the dollars deemed to not make sense. More recently Baron Davis and Elton Brand; who while faces of their respected franchise, are oft injured and probably just below that top-tier of free-agent, but the fact that they left is noteworthy nonetheless.

So would the Spurs really bank their future, or more importantly their championship-window with Tim as their anchor, given the history of movement (or more appropriately, lack thereof) among marquee free-agent's of the past?

Would the Spurs really gamble maybe two of Tim and Manu's last best years with the idea of only doing what's right fiscally for 2010, whether it cost them a title between now and then?

I honestly don't believe so.

Everything the Spurs do, and have ever done with Pop at the helm, has been about playing the odds and finding the "value".

Whether it's the way they play defense, the way the coaching staff breaks down a schedule, the way they target free-agents, or the way they go about the draft, they've always consistently stuck to their guns.

So what does all that mean for 2010?

My guess, as I've mentioned before, the Spurs increase their odds and find a better "value" by getting their man between now and 10'.

2010 has just about every team in the league maneuvering their way to be in the best position possible to land one of those coveted free-agents. Surely, in their collective haste to best position themselves, some "value" talent with a contract not so 2010 friendly will be made available. Right?

So while the Spurs might not have the assets one would hope for, they might be better off than one might have thought. They did afterall manage to basically clear their books for 10' with some shrewd contracts; contracts that might end up being what helps to bring in the newest Spur.

Most fans believe the Spurs have banked the future of the franchise on 10' like the rest of the league; and they might be right.

Then again, they might have gone with the odds and banked on everybody else to do the same. The odds being better to aquire a big-time player through a trade and getting "value", one wouldn't usually expect, with the haste of so many teams looking to clear cap space for 10'.

It might come down to 10' for the Spurs to get their next big-time player, but I don't think that's their plan A.

There's going to be a lot of disappointed teams in 10' and I don't think the Spurs plan on being one of them.

They just might be looking to pull a good old fashioned okey-doke.:smokin

[mystargtr34]

I agree with you. I think the FO might have more chance at getting another 'star' by stealing one from a team looking to unload for 2010. Teams these days seem to want to give up an increible amount just for some cap space.

[big daddy russ]

Good thoughts. I think the front office takes a look at the state of NBA free agents this summer and decides where to go from there. We don't throw top dollars at anyone except franchise players, which has got us this far.

It'll be an interesting summer to say the least. Will the economy have the same effect it's having on free agency in baseball? Will there be some free agents at bargain basement deals?

There will be some interesting names on the market this summer--Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza, Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, and Jermaine O'Neal come to mind--that may see their asking price drop a bit because of a combination of things from the economy to age to everyone gearing up for the summer of D-Wade and LeBron. Although hoping to sign one or two of these players outright may be a bit of a stretch, if the market drops low enough to where we could get one if we sacrificed in 2010, I'd be all for it.

If the bottom doesn't fall out and prices stay relatively high, it'll be fun to see what the boys at the top of the totem pole do for the summer of '10.

[Blackjack]

Good thoughts. I think the front office takes a look at the state of NBA free agents this summer and decides where to go from there. We don't throw top dollars at anyone except franchise players, which has got us this far.

It'll be an interesting summer to say the least. Will the economy have the same effect it's having on free agency in baseball? Will there be some free agents at bargain basement deals?

There will be some interesting names on the market this summer--Rasheed Wallace, Trevor Ariza, Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, and Jermaine O'Neal come to mind--that may see their asking price drop a bit because of a combination of things from the economy to age to everyone gearing up for the summer of D-Wade and LeBron. Although hoping to sign one or two of these players outright may be a bit of a stretch, if the market drops low enough to where we could get one if we sacrificed in 2010, I'd be all for it.

If the bottom doesn't fall out and prices stay relatively high, it'll be fun to see what the boys at the top of the totem pole do for the summer of '10.

:tu

I'd love to see one of those marquee free-agents sign her in '10, but I also feel there's an urgency to win now. There's no telling what might change in terms of health or personnel on this team, or throughout the league when that free-agent class becomes available.

I really think the Spurs feel that urgency and realize their chances of getting a player that helps keep that championship-window open, will most likely come via trade between now and then.

Now they've just got to find the right desperate fool to fleece.

[m33p0]

you also have to put into account that Tiago Splitter will be available and the Spurs no longer will be hindered by the rookie salary scale by then. He may not be a franchise level player in the NBA but his presence will give the Spurs flexibility in terms of who to sign.

[Austin_Toros]

What really are the odds the Spurs could land a top-tier free-agent in 10'?

I mean, how many faces of their respected franchises ever really leave their team.


I am doubtful as to who the spurs can land.
If history has shown anything its that players value money more than winning. This may make it near impossible to sign a big name guy unless the spurs have big bucks.
Elton Brand ditched the team/city that loved him and left coach Dunleavy perplexed. Baron Davis ditched the GSW for $$$ in LA. And of course, Corey Maggette turned down championship aspirations by declining a mid level from the spurs to get paid a few more million in G. State.

Not only will the loaylty factor play a certain role but if other teams out bid the spurs, don't expect players to come running to San Antonio, regardless of any chances they could have at winning a championship.

:flag:

[Blackjack]

you also have to put into account that Tiago Splitter will be available and the Spurs no longer will be hindered by the rookie salary scale by then. He may not be a franchise level player in the NBA but his presence will give the Spurs flexibility in terms of who to sign.

Call me naive, but I do expect to see Tiago in a Spurs uniform by 2010.

As unfortunate and terrible as losing his sister was, I firmly believe that was one of the biggest reasons he decided to stay over there. I'm sure the money was a factor, but family is family.

Tiago and his family will no doubt grieve their loss, but the closure might give him the ability to come over guilt-free now.

I don't know the guy or have any kind of inside information, but I get the feeling we'll be seeing him in 2010.

As for his contract, I'm pretty sure he'll be forced to sign a rookie-scale contract whenever he shows up. I'm not positive, but I don't think there's a way around it for first round picks.

Seems like they should allow a team to match an overseas contract after two or three years removed from the draft to get the best talent in the league, but what the hell do I know.

[lurker23]

Good OP. :tu :tu

I think the math regarding this kind of scenario is pretty simple.

A guaranteed great player via trade in 2009-10 >>> The chance of a great player via free agency in 2010

[m33p0]

Call me naive, but I do expect to see Tiago in a Spurs uniform by 2010.

As unfortunate and terrible as losing his sister was, I firmly believe that was one of the biggest reasons he decided to stay over there. I'm sure the money was a factor, but family is family.

Tiago and his family will no doubt grieve their loss, but the closure might give him the ability to come over guilt-free now.

I don't know the guy or have any kind of inside information, but I get the feeling we'll be seeing him in 2010.

As for his contract, I'm pretty sure he'll be forced to sign a rookie-scale contract whenever he shows up. I'm not positive, but I don't think there's a way around it for first round picks.

Seems like they should allow a team to match an overseas contract after two or three years removed from the draft to get the best talent in the league, but what the hell do I know.
the current CBA will end by 2010. Pop has expressed interest in rectifying at least that portion of the CBA to allow the NBA to be more competitive in signing players from overseas. i don't have the link but maybe someone can provide it.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I (well everyone who is following the Spurs diligently enough) suspect that the team would surely want to retain its Big Three core beyond 2010 and supplant it only if there is someone available who is a much better player and is as good a "Spur" (in the sense of Bill Simmons' "Chemacterility").

That means that if indeed there is someone who would bump the Spurs over to the higher echelon in 2009 itself, the Spurs would jump at it, while retaining Timmy, Parker and Manu.

Now the main concern is with Manu and his contract. He as a player would surely want to insure his future through an extension, but the question remains as to how much committed the Spurs are toward him. I am leaning toward the fact that the Spurs would love Manu to finish his career with them and therefore there will be a meeting point wherein Manu will take a "reasonable pay" and the Spurs will take a "reasonable hit" on the salary cap come summer. Which means that the core of 3 is going to be intact and Manu will get likely a deal that lasts till Timmy's in 2012.

Now to the winning a championship part. 2008/09 is up for grabs and Spurs will become a surefire threat only if they grab a decent biggie. Can't see Wallace coming over this season, so it is bound to be someone who is a 3rd choice big like Joe Smith perhaps who will hop on to the bandwagon.

But come 2009 and the Spurs will be well in the race for Wallace and a bunch of other bigs looking for "retiring with a championship" status. Rasheed has his character problems and all that, but I suppose in the larger scheme of things, he will be a fit with the team. His addition will surely be enough for the team to contend again and there is always the likelihood of his joining on a MLE with a cut or the veteran's exception.

Circa 2010, I don't expect Bosh or Stoudemire to want to join the Spurs, period. So its hoping that Splitter splits from Tau. Then again, with Bruce going away helped by Father time, and other expirings, there is a good chance of getting someone who can add to the Tim-Tony-Manu-Wallace core and keep us in the hunt. Guys like Steve Nash would like to play and win in a team whose philosophy matches theirs.

In sum, I see contending a given till 2012-13 even without marquee free agent signings in 2010 and without giving up any of the core.

[lurker23]

the current CBA will end by 2010. Pop has expressed interest in rectifying at least that portion of the CBA to allow the NBA to be more competitive in signing players from overseas. i don't have the link but maybe someone can provide it.

FYI...

"The current CBA has been in effect since July 2005, succeeding the previous agreement which was in effect from 1999 to 2005. The agreement will expire following the 2010-11 season, although the league has the option to extend it through the 2011-12 season. The league must exercise its option to extend the agreement by December 15, 2010."

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q5

[m33p0]

FYI...

"The current CBA has been in effect since July 2005, succeeding the previous agreement which was in effect from 1999 to 2005. The agreement will expire following the 2010-11 season, although the league has the option to extend it through the 2011-12 season. The league must exercise its option to extend the agreement by December 15, 2010."

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q5
thanks. :tu

so if the league and the players' union wishes to make changes, they'll have to wait until the current agreement expires which is on 2011?

[buttsR4rebounding]

I personally think the Spurs should ditch the 2010 strategy. If it is about getting the best value for your team the time to compete for players is when no one has or no one wants to spend their money. If you look at the rosters across the NBA you will see that the majority of teams are in great position to compete for players in 2010. When the few true franchise players are taken then you will still have a bunch of teams with a lot of money and few players. Then 2nd tier players will be overbid for because teams will be in somewhat of a panic mode. Even high quality role players will end up getting overpaid. This, of course, is bad news for the Spurs since this is the area they have excelled at. By ditching the 2010 strategy the Spurs can turn what is now perceived as "nothing worth trading for" into something of value. If you take the posititon that Mace should be a part of the team past his current contract that will leave you with basically Bowen, Oberto, Bonner and Finley as tradeable pieces next summer.

I think Bowen's contract is particularly attractive because if i recall correctly when he signed his extension the final year as only partially guaranteed. (Be nice if someone could check me on this since my mind isn't what it used to be.) I believe it was guaranteed for $2 million. So Bowen could be part of a trade, bought out cheap and would undoubtedly end up back w/ the Spurs.

So what might the Spurs be able to get over the summer. First off, I believe it is a year to use the full MLE. I think teams will be hesitant to commit to players so maybe Rasheed Wallace for 3 years and about 18 million is a nice addition.

Players that have contracts that extend past 2010 that could be traded for some combination of the above players and play the post or the 3 position include the following:

Player Salary
Josh Smith 10.0
Gerald Wallace 9.1
Nazr Mohomed 6.5
Diop 6.0
Deng 10.4
Troy Murphy 10.3
Dunleavy 9.7
Kaman 10.4
Richard Jefferson 14.2
Bogut 10.0
Kenyon Martin 14.2
Nene 9.7
Tayshaun Prince 10.3
Biedrins 9.0
Magette 8.3
SJax 7.1
Gadzurik 6.7
Al Jefferson 12
Eddie Curry 10.5
Krstic 5.8
Peitrus 5.3
Iguodala 12.2
Dalenbert 11.3
Jamison 11.6
Caron Butler 9.8

There are some I have missed I am sure, however you can see by how small this list is that many, many teams are setting up for 2010.

[exstatic]

I've always said that what the Spurs were gaining for 2010 wasn't just cap room, it was options. That being said, the tone of this thread seems to be that they have NO intentions of a 2010 FA, that this whole thing was a hustle, and I don't agree with that. They'll do what is best for the franchise. If the right player becomes available before 2010, CHEAP, like just expiring contracts with no picks or Mase or Hill, then they might pull the trigger. They might also go for two or three guys in 2010, mid level types, instead of one big splash.

One thing I don't believe is that they toss 2010 aside for a thirty-something player with a contract running past 2010. I think if it's a trade, it's someone mid twenties or younger, someone that they can invest a long contract into eventually.

[FreeMason]

Better to go all out now before Bynum reaches his prime!

[exstatic]

you also have to put into account that Tiago Splitter will be available and the Spurs no longer will be hindered by the rookie salary scale by then. He may not be a franchise level player in the NBA but his presence will give the Spurs flexibility in terms of who to sign.

The rookie salary scale is going away? Because, until it does, they will be "hindered" by it. Cap room doesn't even matter.

[m33p0]

The rookie salary scale is going away? Because, until it does, they will be "hindered" by it. Cap room doesn't even matter.
adjusted to make it more competitive against other leagues.

[exstatic]

adjusted to make it more competitive against other leagues.

Possibly adjusted in the summer of 2011, when it expires. It will have no effect at all on 2010 decisions, made under 2010 rules.

[m33p0]

Possibly adjusted in the summer of 2011, when it expires. It will have no effect at all on 2010 decisions, made under 2010 rules.
yes, i know. lurker already mentioned that.

[Ditty]

I (well everyone who is following the Spurs diligently enough) suspect that the team would surely want to retain its Big Three core beyond 2010 and supplant it only if there is someone available who is a much better player and is as good a "Spur" (in the sense of Bill Simmons' "Chemacterility").

That means that if indeed there is someone who would bump the Spurs over to the higher echelon in 2009 itself, the Spurs would jump at it, while retaining Timmy, Parker and Manu.

Now the main concern is with Manu and his contract. He as a player would surely want to insure his future through an extension, but the question remains as to how much committed the Spurs are toward him. I am leaning toward the fact that the Spurs would love Manu to finish his career with them and therefore there will be a meeting point wherein Manu will take a "reasonable pay" and the Spurs will take a "reasonable hit" on the salary cap come summer. Which means that the core of 3 is going to be intact and Manu will get likely a deal that lasts till Timmy's in 2012.

Now to the winning a championship part. 2008/09 is up for grabs and Spurs will become a surefire threat only if they grab a decent biggie. Can't see Wallace coming over this season, so it is bound to be someone who is a 3rd choice big like Joe Smith perhaps who will hop on to the bandwagon.

But come 2009 and the Spurs will be well in the race for Wallace and a bunch of other bigs looking for "retiring with a championship" status. Rasheed has his character problems and all that, but I suppose in the larger scheme of things, he will be a fit with the team. His addition will surely be enough for the team to contend again and there is always the likelihood of his joining on a MLE with a cut or the veteran's exception.

Circa 2010, I don't expect Bosh or Stoudemire to want to join the Spurs, period. So its hoping that Splitter splits from Tau. Then again, with Bruce going away helped by Father time, and other expirings, there is a good chance of getting someone who can add to the Tim-Tony-Manu-Wallace core and keep us in the hunt. Guys like Steve Nash would like to play and win in a team whose philosophy matches theirs.

In sum, I see contending a given till 2012-13 even without marquee free agent signings in 2010 and without giving up any of the core.

first of all don't get your hopes too high about splitter i read a report about a month ago that he will be staying with his team until 2012.

Joe Smith would be a joke, i really see us getting wallace this year

the only reason that bosh would come here is because he is from texas and if all goes well we can offer him a 7 year $112 million doller contract and still have 8 million to resign manu which i hope not for more than 3 millon a year until 2012 and if mason is still producing would do the same thing and sign him for 2 or 3 years

i kinda hope we win another championship by then and at the same time kinda start from scratch

my biggest concern is if pop will retire by 2012 which most likely i think duncan can play until he's about 39 or 40 years old and stay a spur for the rest of his carrer.

steve nash i think george hill might be better than him by 2010 :lol

[anonoftheinternets]

I am doubtful as to who the spurs can land.
If history has shown anything its that players value money more than winning. This may make it near impossible to sign a big name guy unless the spurs have big bucks.
Elton Brand ditched the team/city that loved him and left coach Dunleavy perplexed. Baron Davis ditched the GSW for $$$ in LA. And of course, Corey Maggette turned down championship aspirations by declining a mid level from the spurs to get paid a few more million in G. State.

Not only will the loaylty factor play a certain role but if other teams out bid the spurs, don't expect players to come running to San Antonio, regardless of any chances they could have at winning a championship.

:flag:

Dude Elton brand took less money from Philly and still left. Get your facts straight.

[Blackjack]

I've always said that what the Spurs were gaining for 2010 wasn't just cap room, it was options. That being said, the tone of this thread seems to be that they have NO intentions of a 2010 FA, that this whole thing was a hustle, and I don't agree with that. They'll do what is best for the franchise. If the right player becomes available before 2010, CHEAP, like just expiring contracts with no picks or Mase or Hill, then they might pull the trigger. They might also go for two or three guys in 2010, mid level types, instead of one big splash.

One thing I don't believe is that they toss 2010 aside for a thirty-something player with a contract running past 2010. I think if it's a trade, it's someone mid twenties or younger, someone that they can invest a long contract into eventually.

My intention was to suggest that signing a marquee free-agent in 2010 might be more of a plan B, not that they were completely foregoing the option.

As for the notion that they'd only be looking to sign a player in his mid-twenties or younger, I'm not so sure about that.

I believe they're looking to extend the Big 3's championship-window (more specifically Tim and Manu's) with someone who's ready to win now. Ideally mid-twenties, but likey late twenties and (depending on build, position, and how they deem one's ability to age) maybe even 30 or 31.

Of course, they're not taking on any ridiculous contracts (this is the Spurs afterall) and would never be so short-sighted in dealing with cap ramifications, but if they feel a player can extend their window with this team? They'd probably be willing to make a move that might cause some to scratch their head.

It's all about increasing the odds and taking advantage of opportunities made possible by a teams desperation to clear cap-space. In other words, taking advantage of value that would never be made available under normal circumstances.

So when people say the Spurs are looking for a player to build around for life after Duncan, I tend to disagree.

I tend to believe finding a player that compliments Tim and Manu's inevitable diminshment as players might be more of a goal, than looking to find one that can carry the franchise when they're gone.

[exstatic]

the only reason that bosh would come here is because he is from texas and if all goes well we can offer him a 7 year $112 million doller contract and still have 8 million to resign manu which i hope not for more than 3 millon a year until 2012 and if mason is still producing would do the same thing and sign him for 2 or 3 years

??? The 7 year contract went out the window with the last CBA. You can sign your own player to a 6 year deal or another team's player to a 5 year deal. If the team that is losing the player wants the one year trade exception, you throw them a low pick and then the player gets signed and traded by his original team, and it can be a 6 year deal.

[rold50]

I am doubtful as to who the spurs can land.
If history has shown anything its that players value money more than winning. This may make it near impossible to sign a big name guy unless the spurs have big bucks.
Elton Brand ditched the team/city that loved him and left coach Dunleavy perplexed. Baron Davis ditched the GSW for $$$ in LA. And of course, Corey Maggette turned down championship aspirations by declining a mid level from the spurs to get paid a few more million in G. State.

Not only will the loaylty factor play a certain role but if other teams out bid the spurs, don't expect players to come running to San Antonio, regardless of any chances they could have at winning a championship.

:flag:

Baron didn't get more $$$ from the Clips.
If he stayed in GSW, he could've made 17.8million this year, instead of 11.2 million from clips.

[Ditty]

??? The 7 year contract went out the window with the last CBA. You can sign your own player to a 6 year deal or another team's player to a 5 year deal. If the team that is losing the player wants the one year trade exception, you throw them a low pick and then the player gets signed and traded by his original team, and it can be a 6 year deal.

well that would be better that would mean by the time hes a free agent he will be 32 and see if he still has some left in him chris bosh is bearely reaching his primes and will be 26 in 2010 and i think if he learns some stuff from tim just putting up 23 points with 12 rebound and 2 block shots a game from chris bosh would be great while duncan at 34 could put up maybe 18 points 11 rebounds and 3 blocks a game would be such a great duel until duncan contract in 2012 goes up and im really pullling for us to go after al jefferson or lamarcus aldridge for mabe 14 milliion a year and hae another 10 million from duncans contract to maybe get a shooting guard to replace ginobili or just spend on a bunch of role players or maybe do the impossible and trade tony parker and count on george hill if he lives up to hypes and have so much money to play with that we can land a big small foward or shooting guard also

im so stoked about the spurs future to be honest with you but I just want to win two more times this year and whenever tim retires and just start at scratch how the bulls did but just not be such faliures and hope that pop dosen't retire by 2012 hopefully he goes for the 1,000 wins

[Blackjack]

Very solid post.:tu


I personally think the Spurs should ditch the 2010 strategy. If it is about getting the best value for your team the time to compete for players is when no one has or no one wants to spend their money. If you look at the rosters across the NBA you will see that the majority of teams are in great position to compete for players in 2010. When the few true franchise players are taken then you will still have a bunch of teams with a lot of money and few players. Then 2nd tier players will be overbid for because teams will be in somewhat of a panic mode. Even high quality role players will end up getting overpaid. This, of course, is bad news for the Spurs since this is the area they have excelled at. By ditching the 2010 strategy the Spurs can turn what is now perceived as "nothing worth trading for" into something of value. If you take the posititon that Mace should be a part of the team past his current contract that will leave you with basically Bowen, Oberto, Bonner and Finley as tradeable pieces next summer.

You never want to limit your options, so I wouldn't go as far as to say ditch 2010, but you're pretty on the money in your analysis of the overall landscape of the NBA and how the Spurs should be looking to take advantage of the value presented.:tu


So what might the Spurs be able to get over the summer. First off, I believe it is a year to use the full MLE. I think teams will be hesitant to commit to players so maybe Rasheed Wallace for 3 years and about 18 million is a nice addition.

Rasheed is a done deal if he's willing to come for the MLE. As far as value, talent, fit, the guy just makes too much sense to not be welcomed as a Spur.

I know some like to say Pop would never allow him to setup shop in S.A. because of his loudmouth antics, but they would be fooling themselves.

I can't remember if it was when the Artest rumors came about, but Pop made a point then (and has since repeated when pressed) that being a choir boy was not a requirement. Rasheed is definitely the type of player Pop was trying to appeal to.

Rasheed is not Artest, or a locker room cancer like a T.O. His teammates love him, he's unselfish, (almost to a fault) he's got a good BBIQ, He plays D, and oh yeah, he's a champion.

I'm going to be one happy sonbitch if Timmy's got "Roscoe" watching his back next year.