Hollinger: Finally Another contender in the West

[urunobili]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090209

Finally, out of the morass, we have a second contender in the Western Conference worthy of the title.

All season long we've watched as one team after another has fumbled the opportunity to pass as a credible rival to the Lakers in the Western Conference. For much of the past two months, no team besides the Lakers has projected to win more than 53 games -- something that six Western clubs did a year ago.

That's all changed of late, thanks to the patented Rodeo Road Trip charge by the San Antonio Spurs. Sunday's 105-99 win in Boston was the Spurs' ninth victory in 11 games, and their ninth out of 10 if you discard the game they tanked to the Nuggets last week. Their only other loss came to the Lakers on the road.


In a league that has been the Big Four and the Little 26 all season, San Antonio has ascended to become the clear No. 5. Today's Power Rankings confirm that -- they're at 103.9, fifth in the league, even with the nolo contendere in Denver. And for the first time in months, a fifth team projects to win at least 55 games, as San Antonio's likely record is 55-27, according to today's Playoff Odds.

Meanwhile, the Spurs' rivals in the West keep finding new and creative ways to stumble. New Orleans, for instance, is without Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler, and probably will be without David West for a game or two as well after his scandalous cheap shot on Minnesota's Mike Miller on Sunday night. (Side note: How is it that nobody from the Timberwolves got in West's face after that?) Even when healthy, the Hornets have hardly looked like contending material.

The list goes on behind them. The Denver Nuggets were all excited about getting Carmelo Anthony back, and celebrated by losing by 44 to the New Jersey Nets. The Portland Trail Blazers lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder and nearly followed it up by losing at home to the New York Knicks. The Dallas Mavericks lost Jason Terry just as they were playing well, the Houston Rockets have chemistry and injury issues, and the Phoenix Suns have decided to rebuild around their 35-year-old point guard. Somehow, the Utah Jazz trail all of them.

San Antonio still has five games left on its road trip, but the Spurs are already through the tough part. The final five games are on the road against Eastern Conference teams after the All-Star break, and only one opponent -- the Detroit Pistons -- has a winning record.

It's taken unusually long for Spurs coach Gregg Popovich to recalibrate the mix in light of the Spurs' age issues, but now -- with Roger Mason, George Hill and Matt Bonner supplanting Bruce Bowen, Jacque Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto -- San Antonio has begun its annual second-half charge.

And the Spurs still could have another trick up their sleeves. They have no bad contracts and several short-term deals that could be packaged in a trade for another quality big man, so it stands to reason they could be one of the teams taking advantage of the fire sales going on around the league right now.

Add it all up, and one Western team has finally stuck its head out above the eight-team crowd below the Lakers. While San Antonio still has a long way to show it can play at L.A.'s lofty level, we can at least contemplate the possibility of an interesting Western Conference finals. For much of the season, that had seemed highly unlikely.

[Texas_Ranger]

I thought it was about the Mavs. :rollin

[mardigan]

Only team better is LA.
For now.

[tmtcsc]

WOW !! What a joke.

Way to get back on the reality band wagon Hollinger. Yes, the team that has 4 Championships in the last 10 years, battled injuries to 2 All Stars in the back court, supplanted role players (still not buying Bruce as an also-ran) and found a way to beat LA and Boston this year, has risen to the contender status.

Forgive us dumb fans that didn't buy in to your theory that we would be fortunate to make the playoffs...Here's a couple of numbers for you: 8 and 6, as in your ass should be 86'ed for writing this unapologetic garbage.

What a nimrod. Glad to see we've climbed to # 5 on the Hollinger scale. Man, this year's title is going to feel great. I guess Marc Stein and soon Charles Barkley will be the only ones saying..."Uh, hey guys....the Spurs are pretty good."

[JWest596]

WOW !! What a joke.

Way to get back on the reality band wagon Hollinger. Yes, the team that has 4 Championships in the last 10 years, battled injuries to 2 All Stars in the front court, supplanted role players (still not buying Bruce as an also-ran) and found a way to beat LA and Boston this year, has risen to the contender status.

Forgive us dumb fans that didn't buy in to your theory that we would be fortunate to make the playoffs...Here's a couple of numbers for you: 8 and 6, as in your ass should be 86'ed for writing this unapologetic garbage.

What a nimrod. Glad to see we've climbed to # 5 on the Hollinger scale. Man, this year's title is going to feel great. I guess Marc Stein and soon Charles Barkley will be the only ones saying..."Uh, hey guys....the Spurs are pretty good."

You nailed him. After all his creditability was so demolished and he just now realizes he an idiot for his past predictions?

Welcome back to reality Mr. Hollinger. This isn't about jocking the Spurs but you asinine prediction that the Spurs would not make the playoffs.

[WildcardManu]

Didn't he predict 35 losses and now he's down to 27, I call his bullshit number system that has nothing to do with sports a waste of time. The article is a joke.

[Galileo]

According to Hollinger, the SPurs will finish up the season 21-12.

That's not very likely.

[gwidlon]

fuck Hollinger and his Sudoku numbers.

[MarHill]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090209

Finally, out of the morass, we have a second contender in the Western Conference worthy of the title.

All season long we've watched as one team after another has fumbled the opportunity to pass as a credible rival to the Lakers in the Western Conference. For much of the past two months, no team besides the Lakers has projected to win more than 53 games -- something that six Western clubs did a year ago.

That's all changed of late, thanks to the patented Rodeo Road Trip charge by the San Antonio Spurs. Sunday's 105-99 win in Boston was the Spurs' ninth victory in 11 games, and their ninth out of 10 if you discard the game they tanked to the Nuggets last week. Their only other loss came to the Lakers on the road.


In a league that has been the Big Four and the Little 26 all season, San Antonio has ascended to become the clear No. 5. Today's Power Rankings confirm that -- they're at 103.9, fifth in the league, even with the nolo contendere in Denver. And for the first time in months, a fifth team projects to win at least 55 games, as San Antonio's likely record is 55-27, according to today's Playoff Odds.

Meanwhile, the Spurs' rivals in the West keep finding new and creative ways to stumble. New Orleans, for instance, is without Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler, and probably will be without David West for a game or two as well after his scandalous cheap shot on Minnesota's Mike Miller on Sunday night. (Side note: How is it that nobody from the Timberwolves got in West's face after that?) Even when healthy, the Hornets have hardly looked like contending material.

The list goes on behind them. The Denver Nuggets were all excited about getting Carmelo Anthony back, and celebrated by losing by 44 to the New Jersey Nets. The Portland Trail Blazers lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder and nearly followed it up by losing at home to the New York Knicks. The Dallas Mavericks lost Jason Terry just as they were playing well, the Houston Rockets have chemistry and injury issues, and the Phoenix Suns have decided to rebuild around their 35-year-old point guard. Somehow, the Utah Jazz trail all of them.

San Antonio still has five games left on its road trip, but the Spurs are already through the tough part. The final five games are on the road against Eastern Conference teams after the All-Star break, and only one opponent -- the Detroit Pistons -- has a winning record.

It's taken unusually long for Spurs coach Gregg Popovich to recalibrate the mix in light of the Spurs' age issues, but now -- with Roger Mason, George Hill and Matt Bonner supplanting Bruce Bowen, Jacque Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto -- San Antonio has begun its annual second-half charge.

And the Spurs still could have another trick up their sleeves. They have no bad contracts and several short-term deals that could be packaged in a trade for another quality big man, so it stands to reason they could be one of the teams taking advantage of the fire sales going on around the league right now.

Add it all up, and one Western team has finally stuck its head out above the eight-team crowd below the Lakers. While San Antonio still has a long way to show it can play at L.A.'s lofty level, we can at least contemplate the possibility of an interesting Western Conference finals. For much of the season, that had seemed highly unlikely.

This is typical!

I guess this is the only drama the media at ESPN can create about the boring Spurs! Yikes!!

:flag:

[timvp]

:lol What a douche.

If you are going to dismiss the Spurs since even before the start of the season and take shots at them throughout the season, you can't suddenly jump on the bandwagon after a few wins. Just a couple days ago he predicted the Spurs to get murdered on the RRT.

[Killakobe81]

I agree 100% I have heard many of my fellow Laker fans dismiss the Spurs due to age or say they are more worried about Hornets or healthy Rockets or Jazz ...
Spurs will be there because of duncan and pop first and foremost ... they are the team i respect the most and the only team that makes me nervous besides the Celts

You heard it here barring HUGE trade it will be the Lakers, Spurs or Celts holding the trophy Cavs magic jazz etc. PRETENDERS!!!

[MarHill]

I agree 100% I have heard many of my fellow Laker fans dismiss the Spurs do to age or say they are more worried about Hornets or healthy Rockets or Jazz ...
Spurs will be ther because of duncan and pop first and foremost ... they are the team i respect the most and he only team that makes me nervous besides the Celts

You heard it here barring HUGE trade it will be the Lakers, Spurs or Celts holding the trophy

I agree with you Killakobe81!!!

The Lakers and the Celtics are the only two teams I worry about as a Spurs fan!!

[Stump]

Didn't he predict that the spurs would miss the playoffs back in mid-December?

Pathetic

[tmtcsc]

I agree 100% I have heard many of my fellow Laker fans dismiss the Spurs due to age or say they are more worried about Hornets or healthy Rockets or Jazz ...
Spurs will be there because of duncan and pop first and foremost ... they are the team i respect the most and the only team that makes me nervous besides the Celts

You heard it here barring HUGE trade it will be the Lakers, Spurs or Celts holding the trophy Cavs magic jazz etc. PRETENDERS!!!

Hey, stop making unbiased sense.

[FromWayDowntown]

:lol What a douche.

If you are going to dismiss the Spurs since even before the start of the season and take shots at them throughout the season, you can't suddenly jump on the bandwagon after a few wins. Just a couple days ago he predicted the Spurs to get murdered on the RRT.

Indeed, Hollinger has systematically been promoting his belief in almost all of the other West playoff teams for weeks while, in each instance, proclaiming that the Spurs' fall was upon us. He's become something of an Iraqi Information Officer in that regard -- the more he claims the Spurs will be vanquished, the more the Spurs come on it seems.

[Killakobe81]

Look I don't like the heat I take being a Laker fan that has moved to SA ..BUT I always respected the Spurs because of Duncan.
Now in the duncan vs. hakeem debate I argue Hakeem in his prime ...but that is no slam at Duncan
AT PF he is the best i have ever seen
as a big man(center/PF) he is 3rd ...behind Kareem and hakeem but better than Shaq, Ewing and robinson IMHO

Duncan is who deserves most of the props for the 4 titles with Pop 2nd followed by Manu, Admiral, Bowen Parker etc.

[CubanMustGo]

Until my numbers show it, it isn't so.

-- Hollinger

[TheSpursFNRule]

Hollinger knows the spurs are gonna make a trade. Here comes Brad Miller!

[Trainwreck2100]

Holinger and Melo gotta have awesome hammies with all their backpedaling.

[tmtcsc]

Look I don't like the heat I take being a Laker fan that has moved to SA ..BUT I always respected the Spurs because of Duncan.
Now in the duncan vs. hakeem debate I argue Hakeem in his prime ...but that is no slam at Duncan
AT PF he is the best i have ever seen
as a big man(center/PF) he is 3rd ...behind Kareem and hakeem but better than Shaq, Ewing and robinson IMHO

Duncan is who deserves most of the props for the 4 titles with Pop 2nd followed by Manu, Admiral, Bowen Parker etc.

C'mon now, taking heat for your team is what its all about.

[SenorSpur]

BREAKING NEWS:

Hollinger just sprained a butt cheek hoping back onto the Spurs bandwagon.

[FreeMason]

......




This guy has got to be the biggest douche bag in all of sports writers.

[Harry Callahan]

Didn't he predict that the spurs would miss the playoffs back in mid-December?

Pathetic

Yes he did. The perv may have actually watched a Spurs game or two in the last 50 games and discovered that Roger Mason, George Hill, and Matt Bonner actually play key minutes this year.

JH is a tool.

[HarlemHeat37]

you guys need to give Hollinger a break..he doesn't watch games, his entire analysis of everything is based on his stats..you just have to let the stats catch up to him, so he can catch up with the rest of us..

[benefactor]

Crow...its whats for dinner.

[bigdog]

Hollinger is an idiot.

[Galileo]

The Big three are 26-8 together this year.

But Hollinger thinks the Spurs will finish 21-12, and win 55 games.

59 or 60 looks more likely.

If the Spurs win 3/4 of their remaining games, they will win 59, about Duncan's average for his career.

Hollinger needs to revamp his formulas. He may also need his brain revamped.

[ElNono]

Only 40 days ago...

PER Diem: Dec. 31, 2008 (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Perdiem-081231)
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com

http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x282/duncan228/temp/lead124.jpg
D. Clarke Evans/NBAE/Getty Images

Even with a healthy big three in San Antonio, the Spurs might have a hard time making the playoffs.


Checking out the Playoff Odds (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds)on Wednesday, there's a bit of a surprise out West.

According to Wednesday's simulations, the eight most likely playoff teams from that conference are the Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Hornets, Rockets, Jazz, Mavs and Suns.

You'll notice I didn't mention the Spurs. After Tuesday's 100-98 loss at home to Milwaukee, the Spurs project to finish ninth in the West with a 47-35 record. They're a lowly 14th in the Power Rankings (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking) -- more than a point behind No. 13 Dallas.

All this seems a bit odd just looking at the standings. San Antonio is 20-11, after all, with the third-best record in the West and just a half-game behind New Orleans in the Southwest Division race.

Intangible factors seem to be on the Spurs' side, too. They've compiled their record despite losing Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili for big chunks of time, and they have a history of rallying in the second half of the season after ho-hum starts.

However, the Playoff Odds and Power Rankings underscore this: San Antonio hasn't played nearly as well as its record. The Spurs already have played 18 home games, tied with Boston for most in the league. Also, their opponents' .469 winning percentage is the worst of any team in the West.

Moreover, the Spurs have been remarkably mediocre since Parker and Ginobili returned to the lineup. Their past 10 games include close shaves at home against Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Memphis, a home loss to the Bucks and a convincing defeat in Orlando.

As a result, the Playoff Odds project the Spurs to go just 27-24 in their final 51 games. This would be hugely disappointing from San Antonio's perspective, but its schedule is about to rise several notches in difficulty.

From Jan. 11 to March 4, the Spurs will play only eight of their 25 games at home. Of those eight, six are against high-caliber opponents: Orlando, Portland, Cleveland, the Lakers, Dallas and New Orleans. The other two games, against Indiana and New Jersey, aren't exactly gimmes, either.

And of the 17 road games, at least eight -- at L.A., Utah, Phoenix, Denver, Boston, Detroit, Portland and Dallas -- have to be considered likely or somewhat likely defeats. Of the 25 games, only two are against the bottom six teams in the West, and both are on the road.

Thus, the Spurs' position isn't nearly as strong as it appears in the standings. The Spurs aren't playing real well, and they'll get absolutely bushwhacked by the schedule if they don't start playing better real soon.

[Notorious H.O.P.]

I consider myself a numbers guy but the truth is there are too many variables in team sports to try to quantify it with formulas. You've got emotions, heart, exhaustion, frustration, hot teams, cold teams, players get as hot as lava and cold as ice. You have injuries, tough parts of a schedule, weak parts. Basically too many variables to come even close to making a valid prediction.

Hollinger has the occasional decent article but as long as he is covering team sports with a season as long as the NBA's, he needs to put the formulas away and write in the now instead of trying to project stats so far out.

[FreeMason]

You cannot evaluate the Spurs without taking their dynasty run into consideration.

That's like saying man-made global warming exists by analyzing the last 100 years out of 4.3 billion.



See what I did there :bking

[Solid D]

:lol What a douche.

If you are going to dismiss the Spurs since even before the start of the season and take shots at them throughout the season, you can't suddenly jump on the bandwagon after a few wins. Just a couple days ago he predicted the Spurs to get murdered on the RRT.

:lol by listing their rating as 5th, he probably thinks it allows him to save face through validation by the numbers, now.

[Galileo]

The Mavs started the '07 season 0-4, and finished 67-15. The Suns started 1-4. They both ended up with the top two records.

Did Hollinger dump it on those teams as well?

[TampaDude]

The Big three are 26-8 together this year.

But Hollinger thinks the Spurs will finish 21-12, and win 55 games.

59 or 60 looks more likely.

If the Spurs win 3/4 of their remaining games, they will win 59, about Duncan's average for his career.

Hollinger needs to revamp his formulas. He may also need his brain revamped.

The Spurs will win 59 or 60 games this season, including the remaining game against the Lakers in San Antonio...BOOK IT!!! :flag:

[lurker23]

From this thread:

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106147




The Popovich-Duncan tandem has produced at least 56 wins for eight straight seasons, an incredible accomplishment, but it seems highly unlikely to run that string to nine.



I've been thinking that the Spurs will have a season with 51 to 54 wins, especially with Ginobili missing a substantial part of the season, and at least one other relatively major injury basically guaranteed at some point. However, just to spite Hollinger, I'll put myself out on a limb and predict a final record of 56-26.

[Ocotillo]

National sports writers are not terribly unlike some posters on this site. Over reacting to wins and losses in the regular season no matter what has happened in the past and using logic to look forward.

After losing to the Lakers recently in LA some were throwing themselves off of buildings metaphorically and some writers were ready to crown the Lakers, no need to mess with playing games the rest of the season.

Now that the Celtics fell to the Spurs in a competitive games, some are saying we're going all the way baby and guys like Hollinger are hopping back on the bandwagon.

Here is the bottomline: if things go right and the Spurs don't have a major injury(s), they have a shot at winning it all. The same applies to the Lakers and Celtics.

Believe.

[superbigtime]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090209

Finally, out of the morass, we have a second contender in the Western Conference worthy of the title.


Meanwhile, the Spurs' rivals in the West keep finding new and creative ways to stumble.


Yess! Finally! Apparently Spurs are just now showing up but it's because other teams are underachieving and stumbling. Smell the coffee man and don't miss the wagon. Spurs have just been getting warmed up.

[Spursfanfromafar]

What a pathetic piece by Hollinger! After months predicting through his "it says it all" numbers that the Spurs are going to be murdered by their schedule; the others in the Western pack are going to just streamroll over the Spurs; age has caught up with the Spurs; their draft and free agent picks are not upto the elite mark; without a big man, the Spurs are doomed; the point differential says that the Spurs are badly off; the Playoff odds place Spurs behind the meteoric Blazers and the talented Rockets and the resolute Nuggets and the surefire Jazz; and all that..

he has this piece of tripe to write.

John Hollinger reminds me of Alan Greenspan in many ways of living and dying with the numbers and the illogical Ayn Randian objectivist system. Except Greenspan dragged his senile ass to Congress and said, "I screwed up". This fella from ESPN thinks he is Bill James of Hoops and can't even say a sorry. What a load.

Stats are only supplementary to the way the game is played. For all his geekistry, one screen/roll, one hard elbow and one dive to the floor is enough to put paid to all the numbers that emphasise winning/losing. I will take a million opinionated Charley Rosens over this "objectivist" Hollinger.

[G-Nob]

Give Hollinger credit. He kept the spurs out of the mix because he knew the defense was not as good this year. In reality, he's right. The spurs are 6th in the league when normally they are the best or near the best.

[m33p0]

What about Utah, John? What about Utah?

[Yorae]

Fjh

[Sigz]

Hollinger has vaginal fluid in his brain.

[EricB]

Give Hollinger credit. He kept the spurs out of the mix because he knew the defense was not as good this year. In reality, he's right. The spurs are 6th in the league when normally they are the best or near the best.


I don't have to give that balding retard, jack shit.

[Ghazi]

The Spurs were playing like shit earlier in the year, and needed a bunch of fluke shots to win a bunch of close games, so Hollinger's model penalized them.

Now they're playing better, so the model rewards them.

What's there to bitch about? Hollinger is smarter than all of you :)

The top five teams in his model are 1. Celtics 2. Magic 3. Lakers 4. Cavs 5. Spurs

WE can argue the order, but the bottom line is the model rewards good basketball.

[EricB]

The Spurs were playing like shit earlier in the year, and needed a bunch of fluke shots to win a bunch of close games, so Hollinger's model penalized them.

Now they're playing better, so the model rewards them.

What's there to bitch about? Hollinger is smarter than all of you :)

The top five teams in his model are 1. Celtics 2. Magic 3. Lakers 4. Cavs 5. Spurs

WE can argue the order, but the bottom line is the model rewards good basketball.


Yeah when they are missing two of their best players it throws the retarded formulaic equation off.

So take that BS somewhere else.

[Spursfanfromafar]

The Spurs were playing like shit earlier in the year, and needed a bunch of fluke shots to win a bunch of close games, so Hollinger's model penalized them.

Now they're playing better, so the model rewards them.

What's there to bitch about? Hollinger is smarter than all of you :)



Oh yeah? And thats why he predicted the Spurs to go 47-35 before the season eh? Who is smarter?

Model, my foot. He was consistently ranking the effing Sixers over the Spurs.. the team that barely managed to go over .500.

[td4mvp21]

I think we can beat anyone that comes out the East, and I also think we could lose to anyone that comes out of the East. Regardless, getting past the Lakers will be our biggest obstacle. I think they are better than both Cavs and Celtics...

[Ghazi]

Yeah when they are missing two of their best players it throws the retarded formulaic equation off.

So take that BS somewhere else.

He already said his model doesn't factor injuries.

Which go for all teams, FWIW.

[Raoul Duke]

It's taken unusually long for Spurs coach Gregg Popovich to recalibrate the mix in light of the Spurs' age issues, but now --



what an ass. does he even watch nba basketball? the spurs had no tony and manu for a big stretch in the beginning of the season.

[Raoul Duke]

The Spurs were playing like shit earlier in the year, and needed a bunch of fluke shots to win a bunch of close games, so Hollinger's model penalized them.

Now they're playing better, so the model rewards them.

What's there to bitch about? Hollinger is smarter than all of you :)

The top five teams in his model are 1. Celtics 2. Magic 3. Lakers 4. Cavs 5. Spurs

WE can argue the order, but the bottom line is the model rewards good basketball.

no your sorry ass mavs played like shit early in the season. spurs had injuries early on and managed to win still. go kill yourself.

[timvp]

Indeed, Hollinger has systematically been promoting his belief in almost all of the other West playoff teams for weeks while, in each instance, proclaiming that the Spurs' fall was upon us. He's become something of an Iraqi Information Officer in that regard -- the more he claims the Spurs will be vanquished, the more the Spurs come on it seems.Yeah, you called it in the offseason, IIRC. I defended Hollinger at the time but you were dead right about Hollinger have an axe to grind with the Spurs, for whatever reason.

I didn't mind the article where Hollinger said the Spurs might not make the playoffs. But this article (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090121) where he reluctantly includes the Spurs as a team that could improve as the season progresses really was lame. In it, he ignores his numbers for a second and still scoffs the Spurs.

[stéphane]

Hollinger writes well (fron a foreigner standpoint) but his raw analysis based on his statiscals indicators just plainly sucks.
I just take it for what it's worth, statistics.

[ElNono]

He already said his model doesn't factor injuries.

Which go for all teams, FWIW.

It doesn't factor players taking games off either. So it's retarded. And I'm pretty sure he's not happy at all with Pop trying to rest guys even if it cost the Spurs the game. It whacks off all his numbers, and makes it specially hard to figure out what the 'real' numbers for the team are...

[Spursfanfromafar]

Folks..

I have a more fundamental problem with Hollinger's stats approach. Most stat geeks use statistics as a supplementary function to evaluate how things work. They don't use it as a base to predict things. Hollinger is uber-confident about this methodology and thinks that it is good enough to predict how a team performs on the court.

For e.g., he makes this innocuous suggestion that his predictions consider a) health to be given and b) expects things to go on .. as they are .

a), I am willing to give it to him. but b) is simply naive. Teams adjust strategies, make trades, define different roles for players, tinker with lineups; players get newer forms of motivation over different periods of the season and all that and so on. None of these intangibles can be captured in a "quantifiable" form, beyond some quick ones, such as "Road vs Home", "Fast pace vs slow pace" etc.

On the other hand, if stats are used for interpretation, with the "context" already known .. for e.g., I try to study why the Spurs lose to the Bucks so often, and check up the stats of the Bucks big men and come up with a thesis, that is a valid exercise, since the imponderables and intangibles are eliminated almost enough to make it a much more exact science.

Instead, by converting his work from a Stats-nuts-and-bolts'er to a Nostradamus, Hollinger takes his art into "pseudo-science" and ends up having to defend his predictions by giving excuse after excuse after lame thesis that he keeps making up on the go.

The funny part is that the Spurs by emphasising a ball sharing, team oriented, defense oriented approach, increase the number of intangibles, those that are seen by basketball connoisseurs and by definition peers and coaches. And thats why they keep defying Hollingeronomics and are enough to call the problem that Hollinger's pseudo-science is.

[Mark in Austin]

Not sure if I noticed much of an axe to grind from Hollinger - he is what he is. I'll go back and look at his stories this year though.

In general, Hollinger is like a computer who has been programmed to interpret the statistics from another computer. Pretty worthless.

What pisses me off is the he has absolutely no self awareness when it comes to the limits/weaknesses of his system - even on the rare occasions where he acknowledges weaknesses, it's like he then memory dumps that before he writes his next sentence.

His sole belief in stats have become dogma that he cannot let go of, no matter what evidence is presented that they are (at best) only one of several indicators of future performance.

[mountainballer]

Isiah Thomas - Kevin McHale - Chris Wallace

Jerome James - Jason Collins - Michael Ruffin

Tim Floyd - Brian Winters - Sidney Lowe

Peter Vecsey - Sam Smith - John Hollinger

[Taking it to the Hole]

Vintage Hollinger :rolleyes

[roycrikside]

:lol What a douche.

If you are going to dismiss the Spurs since even before the start of the season and take shots at them throughout the season, you can't suddenly jump on the bandwagon after a few wins. Just a couple days ago he predicted the Spurs to get murdered on the RRT.

I think you're being too hard on Hollinger, LJ. Maybe he has been too hard on them this year, but he has championed the Spurs' cause in many past seasons when all the usual talking heads dismissed them. Hollinger was the only one picking the Spurs to win the title before the '07 playoffs when everyone else loved the Mavs or Suns. Plus, he's always been a big supporter of Tim and Manu.

I don't think he has a personal ax to grind against the Spurs. He just believes in his formulas, right or wrong, above all else, and his formulas told him for the first three months that we're no good. A part of it was playing the first dozen games without Tony or Manu, which his formulas won't account for. The biggest factors though is that our margin of victory hasn't been very strong and our schedule has been fairly weak.

Pop goes out of his way to limit the minutes of our big three and as a consequence we don't blow crappy teams out as we often could or should. If the Lakers beat Memphis by 30 and we beat them by 5, then obviously his formula will like the Lakers a lot more.

No matter what our opinions of his formulas are, at least he's looking at concrete numbers and not his own subjective opinions, the way Stephen A. or J.A. Adande or Ric Bucher do.

You guys need to give him a break. For all we know his bosses at ESPN order him to dismiss the Spurs because we're ratings poison. Elliott left the network because he couldn't believe the attitudes so-called unbiased professionals had about us.

[iggypop123]

this guy should at least bother to watch games

[timvp]

I don't think he has a personal ax to grind against the Spurs. He just believes in his formulas, right or wrong, above all else, and his formulas told him for the first three months that we're no good.

...

No matter what our opinions of his formulas are, at least he's looking at concrete numbers and not his own subjective opinions, the way Stephen A. or J.A. Adande or Ric Bucher do.

If all his Spurs dismissing were due to numbers, I'd give him a pass. But he dismissed the Spurs before the season even began. And, when he wrote that article I linked to early in the thread where he looked outside of his numbers to pick teams that were better than the numbers indicate, he admitted to only mentioning the Spurs due to their reputation.

Hollinger made a good call in 2007 but since the middle of last season, he's made it his mission to bury the Spurs. He's picked against them every time and has scoffed any intangibles that could possibly elevate the Spurs above his cookie cutter formula.

As I've said before, I appreciate Hollinger's work because he at least tries to broaden the scope of NBA analysis. However, if he did so with less bias and less obsession to be proven right, it'd do him and his numbers a lot of good.

[rasho8]

Only 40 days ago...
From Jan. 11 to March 4, the Spurs will play only eight of their 25 games at home. Of those eight, six are against high-caliber opponents: Orlando, Portland, Cleveland, the Lakers, Dallas and New Orleans. The other two games, against Indiana and New Jersey, aren't exactly gimmes, either.


Uhhhh.... let me check my calendar.. yeah we are between Jan 11 and March 4.... lets see....

Beat the Lakers
Beat the Pacers
Beat the Nets
Beat the Hornets
Beat the Suns
Beat the Jazz
Beat the Celtics

So all these home.road games we are supposed to lose.. we lost on the road to the Lakers, and to Orlando (and Philly.. how the fuck did that happen? Nuggets dont count)... and have won every game at home except Orlando.

GREAT PREDICTIONS DOUCHE NOZZLE!

[Bandwagon Fan]

Does it really matter? No one seriously thinks the Spurs are going to beat the Lakers anyways. Maybe an occasional game at home by a point or two, but if we can lose to the bobcats once in a blue moon I guess any team is up for grabs.

[endrity]

If all his Spurs dismissing were due to numbers, I'd give him a pass. But he dismissed the Spurs before the season even began. And, when he wrote that article I linked to early in the thread where he looked outside of his numbers to pick teams that were better than the numbers indicate, he admitted to only mentioning the Spurs due to their reputation.

Hollinger made a good call in 2007 but since the middle of last season, he's made it his mission to bury the Spurs. He's picked against them every time and has scoffed any intangibles that could possibly elevate the Spurs above his cookie cutter formula.

As I've said before, I appreciate Hollinger's work because he at least tries to broaden the scope of NBA analysis. However, if he did so with less bias and less obsession to be proven right, it'd do him and his numbers a lot of good.

This is the one reason why I like him more than other ESPN writers, he is much more factual than all the others. Does he believe a bit too blindly in his formulas? Yes, but that is why he works on them, so that he can have some credible results. But the man picks up trends way before others do.

For example he picked up last year on how good Calderon was playing before half of the writers even knew who he was. And he is playing amazing this season as well, yet he is nowhere to be seen in All Star voting, he is way better offensively than Mo and Rondo, but got no recognition at all. Sooner or later some writer will pick up and will start writing how underrated he is, and all that.

But that's exactly why I like reading Hollinger, he makes you think about things that you didn't before. I, and most other NBA junkies that roam around here, can read Bucher, Adande etc and not learn anything I didn't know before. For example, Adande writes today what a great season Durant is having, whereas you could tell from the first two months of the season that he had improved his shot selection considerably. I guess someone that is now starting to follow the NBA after the NFL might like that kind of news, but to me is redundant. Hollinger is different from all these guys.

[ElNono]

This is the one reason why I like him more than other ESPN writers, he is much more factual than all the others. Does he believe a bit too blindly in his formulas? Yes, but that is why he works on them, so that he can have some credible results. But the man picks up trends way before others do.

But he doesn't have credible results. And that is the problem right there. For your Calderon comment, I'll answer with his 'projection' that Manu was going to be on the decline last season. Manu had the best season of his career.
Even though we have consistently beat the crap out of Phoenix, he still picked them to beat us in the 1st round last playoffs. Then he picked New Orleans over us. Either his formulas need a lot more work to account for many other factors, or he just isn't very good.

[Mavs<Spurs]

You can't just go by stats alone.

It is essential that an analyst go by what they see in the actual game as well. And not everything in the game is quantifiable. Match-ups will affect future stats that come out and so if anomalous match-ups weren't present in previous games (ie mismatches at some position - pg, pf, sg, ..) and will be in the next game, using only the stats you have may completely mislead you.

Fact is: you can't measure heart and desire to win. It's difficult to measure poise in a pressure situation. If one team is blowing everybody out and another team is 17-4 in games decided by 6 points or less and the game turns out to be close, what does the model do ? Never underestimate the heart of a champion. A team that has won 4 championships, a core that has won 3 championships in recent times is likely to respond better to that close game.

Models are designed by people. The weight of each individual statistic is arbitrary and subjective.

Therefore, I think that it is better to base one's analysis on watching games consistently rather than a formula. It is what happened in the BCS fiasco.

And I am a ph.d. student studying mathematics. So, it is not like I am averse to statistics.


From watching the games available on Direct TV [not many] (and from reading the posts of people here whom I respect and who know a lot more than I do, I conclude the following:

1. Our defense is not nearly as good as it has been in the past. However, our defense in the second half was much better.
2. I am concerned (as is Hubie Brown) about having Matt Bonner serve as our second big because he can't help defend the rim with Tim. We typically had another big who could help protect the rim. Horry, despite his age and only being 6'10" was a great team defender and off the ball defender around the rim. Oberto seems to know where to be in rotations although he is not quick or athletic, nor is he a shot blocking threat.

I am concerned that we can't beat a team like LA with two bigs with Matt Bonner as one of our starters. However, the Bynum injury may have changed that match up for us. Bonner doesn't seem to know where to be on rotations, he is too slow to cover Amare or David West. And if his shot goes off, then he is basically useless on the floor.

3. George Hill and Roger Mason jr. were the best moves the Spurs have made in years. They are solid contributors and have made our team much, much better and much deeper than it would have been otherwise.

4. We can't trade to get a big who can rebound and defend the paint. We don't have pieces we can afford to trade for a big like that. Ian would barely be recovered from surgery by May. He would be too rusty and not in basketball shape to make a significant contribution. Moreover, he is still learning the game. It would be too much to ask or expect.

5. Pop has done a great job getting us where we are. With Tony and Manu injured, we could have fallen very far behind. Losing Oberto and Ian also hurt our team defense or the ability to develop talent (in Ian's case). Kurt's slow start didn't help. However, that double overtime game was a great game for Kurt (he played terrific after Timmy fouled out) and he seems to be improving from some injury situation.

6. Without a legitimate second big, we need SuperManu. Manu has been showing signs of life. His recent dunk was awesome. A healthy and productive Manu Ginobili will be sufficient to compete against a Laker team without Bynum. The Lakers would still be strong favorites, in my opinion. With Bynum, it's difficult to see the Spurs winning because Bonner can't guard Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum and Tim can't guard both at the same time. Bonner can't really guard Lamar Odom for that matter. But we might be able to get away with that last match up since Lamar sometimes falls asleep during game and disappears.

7. No matter what, I am a Spurs fan !! No matter what happens this season, we have our rings and trophies.


:lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::lobt2:

[stéphane]

For example he picked up last year on how good Calderon was playing before half of the writers even knew who he was. And he is playing amazing this season as well, yet he is nowhere to be seen in All Star voting, he is way better offensively than Mo and Rondo, but got no recognition at all. Sooner or later some writer will pick up and will start writing how underrated he is, and all that.

He's maybe good offensively (as you said) but Calderon is maybe the worst starting PG when it comes to defense.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

oh, i thought this thread was about the Nuggets :smokin :lol

(cue 44pt loss jokes)

[mathbzh]

Instead, by converting his work from a Stats-nuts-and-bolts'er to a Nostradamus, Hollinger takes his art into "pseudo-science" and ends up having to defend his predictions by giving excuse after excuse after lame thesis that he keeps making up on the go.

This is exactly my problem with Hollinger's work.

His PER is a rather good evaluation of players statistical performance... but his PER predictions :bang


That being said, people in the stock-market modeling do the same with much worst consequences.



The funny part is that the Spurs by emphasising a ball sharing, team oriented, defense oriented approach, increase the number of intangibles, those that are seen by basketball connoisseurs and by definition peers and coaches. And thats why they keep defying Hollingeronomics and are enough to call the problem that Hollinger's pseudo-science is.

Very true, Hollinger probably wakes up at night thinking about CIA Pop regular season experiments.

[K-State Spur]

Even though we have consistently beat the crap out of Phoenix, he still picked them to beat us in the 1st round last playoffs. Then he picked New Orleans over us. Either his formulas need a lot more work to account for many other factors, or he just isn't very good.

He did more than that. After game 5, he said that there was almost zero chance that the Spurs would take that series.

[ElNono]

^^ the guy is just doing his job, and aparently He's doing it fine,cose we're all paying attention to what He's got to say.
Wrong or Wright, He's getting NBA fans attention,and that's what He gets payed for.
Dont you think?

We're actually LOL at his mistakes, which are varied and plenty...

[Borosai]

http://www.imagehut.net/images/tdnnliyimqxqjwwqllg.jpg