Stock market tanking

[Trainwreck2100]

Keep investing according to your politics. Please.
Don't discount it, if a repub wins in 2024 im hammering private prison and fossil fuels

[RandomGuy]

Yeah you have to look at the data and historical trends not politics, but the Trump stimulus was obviously to try to get him re-elected when naturally the economy was going to fall to the bottom of the standard sinusoidal trough as it naturally should which was probably bad for Trump's re-election chances but healthy for the economy in the long term. Instead, these stimuluses (stimuli?) are going to guarantee an even worse recession in the near future. The stimuli just kicking the can down the curb, you can't simply remove that can.

What mechanism do you see as being the impetus of that "worse recession"?

[RandomGuy]

Don't discount it, if a repub wins in 2024 im hammering private prison and fossil fuels

(nods)Probably would make some money betting on Republican corruption.

respectfully:
Not sure I would feel comfortable doing so.

[RandomGuy]

Weird time with the the market. Lot of new investors not used to losses and extended periods time of losses. They may give up trading or ease up on the fomo plays.

The Amazon of Africa (jumia) still looks like a great long term play imo

Yup. Fun thing about investing in Africa is so many racist shit-heads still have vastly outmoded and shaded views of the continent and would never consider investing there, meaning more money for those who do. :D

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yup. Fun thing about investing in Africa is so many racist shit-heads still have vastly outmoded and shaded views of the continent and would never consider investing there, meaning more money for those who do. :D
It's just that the vast majority of it is uninhabitable or uncivilizable. Either due to being part of an enormous desert, deep tropical jungle, and overall inhospitable climate for realistic habitat for humanity. There are a few nice oases like as I described before, but the nicer Far North part of Africa is completely Islamic which, other than oil, makes a lot of stuff problematic; and then you have South Africa which is developing but it'll never be better than say Australia.

[Millennial_Messiah]

What mechanism do you see as being the impetus of that "worse recession"?

Economic cycle is just that, a cycle. What Donald Dump did, and Lyin' Biden is doing now, is continue with reckless expansionary policy instead of naturally allowing the standard 8-12 year (crest-to-crest) cycle to hit its normal trough... Newton's 3rd law, what goes up must come down, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. In order to balance out this expansionary policy there will be a greater, perhaps longer and/or deeper recession that was naturally occurring a year ago even prior to the pandemic and that Mr. Dump completely fucked with the wrong way with the spring 2020 stimulus crap. Also the fed needs to get rid of ZIRP and it needs to be federally outlawed. Constitutional amendment setting the Fed interest rate floor at 3%, anything to curb this horrendous period of irresponsible borrowing and nell-pell expansionary policy. Also along with more normal interest rates, set a law requiring minimum 20% down payment on any type of mortgage, to help stabilize the housing market.

[RandomGuy]

Economic cycle is just that, a cycle. What Donald Dump did, and Lyin' Biden is doing now, is continue with reckless expansionary policy instead of naturally allowing the standard 8-12 year (crest-to-crest) cycle to hit its normal trough... Newton's 3rd law, what goes up must come down, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. In order to balance out this expansionary policy there will be a greater, perhaps longer and/or deeper recession that was naturally occurring a year ago even prior to the pandemic and that Mr. Dump completely fucked with the wrong way with the spring 2020 stimulus crap. Also the fed needs to get rid of ZIRP and it needs to be federally outlawed. Constitutional amendment setting the Fed interest rate floor at 3%, anything to curb this horrendous period of irresponsible borrowing and nell-pell expansionary policy. Also along with more normal interest rates, set a law requiring minimum 20% down payment on any type of mortgage, to help stabilize the housing market.

Not even sure where to start.


1. "reckless expansionary policy". Reckless assumes that it is with disregard for some bit of information, not really evidenced here. Neither is expansionary policy really well defined.

2. There is no "natural" "standard 8-12 year cycle". One of the largest mistakes anyone can make is the "same as last time" assumption. Buried in this belief is that because something happened in the past, it must happen again, because no underlying circumstances could have changed.

3. Newtons 3rd law is irrelevant, and totally mis-applied here.

4. We just had a recession. GDP growth was (checks up) -3.5% in 2020.

ZIRP is just fine when you have low growth, which we have. In some cases the markets have pushed that even further, sometimes into the outright negative territory. Outlawing it would simply reduce the tools available to policymakers, and therefore assumes that there could never be a situation that the costs would outweigh the benefits.

Poorly defined terms, misapplications of concepts, and just bad reasoning.

You aren't really making much of a case for your desired policy.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Not even sure where to start.


1. "reckless expansionary policy". Reckless assumes that it is with disregard for some bit of information, not really evidenced here. Neither is expansionary policy really well defined.

2. There is no "natural" "standard 8-12 year cycle". One of the largest mistakes anyone can make is the "same as last time" assumption. Buried in this belief is that because something happened in the past, it must happen again, because no underlying circumstances could have changed.

3. Newtons 3rd law is irrelevant, and totally mis-applied here.

4. We just had a recession. GDP growth was (checks up) -3.5% in 2020.

ZIRP is just fine when you have low growth, which we have. In some cases the markets have pushed that even further, sometimes into the outright negative territory. Outlawing it would simply reduce the tools available to policymakers, and therefore assumes that there could never be a situation that the costs would outweigh the benefits.

Poorly defined terms, misapplications of concepts, and just bad reasoning.

You aren't really making much of a case for your desired policy.

Responsible buyers (not the 95-96.5% borrowers) haven't had a chance to buy a house for a fair price in over 5 years. The 8-11 year cycle is not just one or two cycles, it's been in place for about a hundred years with the exception of the Great Depression era. The YOY 2019-2020 GDP going down 3.5% is too low of a decline compared to past "recessions", especially considering COVID. The problem was the federal government with their stimulus spending crap all year last year and being so hellbent on a stupid "V shaped recovery" when the natural recovery is a smooth amplitude or sinusoidal type graph

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/Sine_wave_amplitude.svg/1280px-Sine_wave_amplitude.svg.png

[RandomGuy]

Responsible buyers (not the 95-96.5% borrowers) haven't had a chance to buy a house for a fair price in over 5 years. The 8-11 year cycle is not just one or two cycles, it's been in place for about a hundred years with the exception of the Great Depression era. The YOY 2019-2020 GDP going down 3.5% is too low of a decline compared to past "recessions", especially considering COVID. The problem was the federal government with their stimulus spending crap all year last year and being so hellbent on a stupid "V shaped recovery" when the natural recovery is a smooth amplitude or sinusoidal type graph

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/Sine_wave_amplitude.svg/1280px-Sine_wave_amplitude.svg.png

I know what a sine wave is.

I also know that economic growth since the great recession has been muted historically.

This suggests a flattening of the wave, does it not?

[RandomGuy]

Growth preceding every single cycle you have noted, prior to 2009 was generally 4-7%

How does growth since 2009 compare to the average growth that precede every other downturn?

Put some maths into it.

[SnakeBoy]

It's just that the vast majority of it is uninhabitable or uncivilizable. Either due to being part of an enormous desert, deep tropical jungle, and overall inhospitable climate for realistic habitat for humanity. There are a few nice oases like as I described before, but the nicer Far North part of Africa is completely Islamic which, other than oil, makes a lot of stuff problematic; and then you have South Africa which is developing but it'll never be better than say Australia.

Yeah, Africa is cursed by geography. The African growth story comes to an end once the era of cheap global capital comes to an end. That starts around the middle of this decade imo. Maybe sooner due to covid.

South Africa will probably do "okay" tho

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yeah, Africa is cursed by geography. The African growth story comes to an end once the era of cheap global capital comes to an end. That starts around the middle of this decade imo. Maybe sooner due to covid.

South Africa will probably do "okay" tho

Agreed. Cursed by geography, severe intense hot and/or humid climate (think: an insanely hot/humid/sultry day/night in Florida or Houston is their average winter weather), tropical disease, and societal issues.

Kenya has a couple bright spots due to the mountains providing a decent climate there, including in capital Nairobi. Ethopia as bad as it's been has a couple nice spots as well, including its capital, Addis Ababa, thanks once again to the subtropical highland climate. Just don't try going there in mid summer because it's a constant deluge... from people I have met from those locations.

Nigeria will always be the African version of Jamaica... another British slave colony left behind... tropical and somewhat touristy but ridden with crime and poverty beneath the surface. And the northern half of Nigeria will always be bad because, well, Islam. The countries around it are all impoverished, bad, diseased, hot and humid, and full of drugs and crime. The Sahara is completely lifeless and uninhabitable. In the central and southern parts you have insane poverty tropical jungles, ebola-ridden forests, safari lands, wild savage humans, people living in huts, bartering and crime, crime crime. But nobody to police them. Finally when you get far south near South Africa and Namibia you finally find organized civilization and reasonable climate again, at the very bottom of the continent.

It's just not a conducive geography to long term human prosperity. The Mediterranean parts of Africa are unfortunately ruled by Islam.

[lefty20]

https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/

I'mma just leave this here.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Someone's boutta louse big money on gamestop stock.

[Darth_Pelican]

Crypto skyrocketing after the Coinbase news

[Millennial_Messiah]

I keep seeing this thread pop up and getting hopeful and then getting pissed off when i see the dow jones is still in the 33,xxx instead of sub-20000 where it's supposed to be during a "recession" tbh.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fuck stimulus, it just made wall street and the big banks and investment firms richer and made the general public poorer. The dow jones needs to tank.

[Darth_Pelican]

Wow Dogecoin :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Wow Dogecoin :lol

Nah, just wait until the globalist jewish/zionist nwo bans all the private sector cryptocurrency and establishes a global publicly regulated crypto currency that is universally tracked by the UN internal revenue service, fully electronic/no cash, so there is no possibility for money laundering or tucking away money since all that paper cash in that money bag is now worthless. Also real estate property is all fully owned by the UN and no individuals own any property they just are placed there by the global government.

[InRareForm]

Not financial advice but I like MARA and RIOT. Bitcoin on its way to 100k

[InRareForm]

People making life changing money off a meme.

Doge coin to the moon

[Darth_Pelican]

People making life changing money off a meme.

Doge coin to the moon

Yes indeed. Bought in February at .08, then it stalled for a couple months and thought the joke was up. Glad I held on to it.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yes indeed. Bought in February at .08, then it stalled for a couple months and thought the joke was up. Glad I held on to it.

you think those are inflation proof against the coming biden era stagflation in the next couple years? just ask old Jimmy Carter, stimuli and beating out a one term president have consequences... namely becoming one yourself. I foresee a Carter/Reagan scenario in '24

[Blake]

Yes indeed. Bought in February at .08, then it stalled for a couple months and thought the joke was up. Glad I held on to it.

How'd you get it? It's not offered on Coinbase and I'm leery of some other sites

[Darth_Pelican]

How'd you get it? It's not offered on Coinbase and I'm leery of some other sites

I bought it on RobinHood. It's also available on Voyager. It actually just took a dip so now might be the time to buy.

[Blake]

Ah man there's a waiting period for robin hood to verify funds

[Blake]

Ok finally got it. In at $.34

[Millennial_Messiah]

lol gamblers. there should be a 40% tax on stock investing, on whatever you invest, whether you make money or not.

[Darth_Pelican]

Ok finally got it. In at $.34

Good luck. A little surge in currently happening

[Blake]

lol gamblers. there should be a 40% tax on stock investing, on whatever you invest, whether you make money or not.

So you don't have a 401k or anything similar. Good for you, playing it ultra safe. :tu

[Millennial_Messiah]

So you don't have a 401k or anything similar. Good for you, playing it ultra safe. :tu
i'm the type of guy who lost my shit as a kid/teenager every time the spurs lost a single game, back when I cared about them. so yeah, day trading and watching my money go up and down would shorten my heart's shelf life dramatically.

[Millennial_Messiah]

i cant tolerate risky situations

[Mitch]

So you don't have a 401k or anything similar. Good for you, playing it ultra safe. :tu

He claimed to have a roth IRA until he found out someone with 400k yearly income is well out of the max income (even if filing jointly) without phase out. Then claimed to go to the bank and get a refund on it :lol

[Blake]

Lol it dropped down to about $.15 there for a little while. I missed that buy in. Back up to $.30 now. I'll hang on to it either way for the long haul.

[InRareForm]

I sold 75 percent my doge when it hit 37 cents. Might buy in at 22 cent if it gets that low again and with a limit sell order at 20 just in case lol.

[Blake]

I'll buy more if it hits 20. I'm hoping it hits a buck by next year. I'm not putting a whole lot in it any way at the moment.

[Blake]

Hit over .40 again

[Millennial_Messiah]

Dow Jones now at 34,xxx. Someone gotta stop this make believe economy. unemployment still at 6.2%, underemployment a worse problem but not quantifiable

[Darth_Pelican]

Hit over .40 again

There's internet buzz that tomorrow (4/20) will be DogeDay. Not sure if anything will really happen but might see some big pumps tomorrow.

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/04/doge-day-dogecoin-elon-musk/

https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2021/04/19/what-is-doge-day-4-20/

[Blake]

There's internet buzz that tomorrow (4/20) will be DogeDay. Not sure if anything will really happen but might see some big pumps tomorrow.

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/04/doge-day-dogecoin-elon-musk/

https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2021/04/19/what-is-doge-day-4-20/

Eh, these things usually end in a fizzle but here's to hoping

[Big Empty]

Long term WISH BBIG SHMP here. Although WISH is made fun of alot, dont be suprised to see it trading over 100 per share in 3-5 years. My goto will be SPXS after 2nd quarter earnings. Although its meant to be day trade this trash market is out of fed stimmy cash just about. Good luck

[SnakeBoy]

Long term WISH BBIG SHMP here. Although WISH is made fun of alot, dont be suprised to see it trading over 100 per share in 3-5 years. My goto will be SPXS after 2nd quarter earnings. Although its meant to be day trade this trash market is out of fed stimmy cash just about. Good luck

hmmm...WISH looks interesting. Added to watchlist.

[InRareForm]

Not financial Advice... Total Gamble play, but I like the risk reward. My Average price per share is $3.03, it had a 50 cent spike today ending the day at $4.03

cigs with no nicotine and tobacco. Thoughts???

https://www.trytaat.com/

[SnakeBoy]

Not financial Advice but Total Gamble play, but I like the risk reward. Average price per share is $3.03, it had a 50 cent spike today

cigs with no nicotine and tobacco. Thoughts???

https://www.trytaat.com/

I don't get the concept. Get rid of the tobacco & nicotine but keep the emphysema and cancer. Seems weird.

[ElNono]

I don't get the concept. Get rid of the tobacco & nicotine but keep the emphysema and cancer. Seems weird.

It's a CBD and THC product.

https://www.trytaat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/HEMP-Certificate-of-Authenticity.pdf

The concept is to get you hooked to it.

[SnakeBoy]

It's a CBD and THC product.

https://www.trytaat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/HEMP-Certificate-of-Authenticity.pdf

The concept is to get you hooked to it.

Oh okay. I thought it was just smoke with nothing in it :lol

[Trill Clinton]

tsla under $700 is a steal. I'm going to wait and see if it'll drop to around $650 before adding some

[Millennial_Messiah]

tsla under $700 is a steal. I'm going to wait and see if it'll drop to around $650 before adding some

or maybe they do a split

[InRareForm]

Speaking of splits, Amazon might do it they just had earnings. Novice Retail investors will get in if it's sub 1000 alongside the whales accumulating.

[Blake]

I like Nokia as a penny stock. I think they can make a nice jump soon

[InRareForm]

Doge coin is at 52 cents

[Blake]

It might hit 60 soon

[Darth_Pelican]

My stocks are bloody red and my crypto is bright green.

[SpursforSix]

My stocks are bloody red and my crypto is bright green.

Sounds like my underwear

[Darth_Pelican]

Sounds like my underwear

Wasted opportunity for "Bend Over, I'll Show You Bloody Red and Bright Green"

[SpursforSix]

Wasted opportunity for "Bend Over, I'll Show You Bloody Red and Bright Green"

damn. you're right

[Blake]

My stocks are bloody red and my crypto is bright green.

My Nokia stock doing good. Everything else, mehhh

[Blake]

But yeah, all crypto in the bright green

[Blake]

I take that back. My Bitcoin is looking red atm

[Millennial_Messiah]

Sounds like my underwear

Who done fucked you in yo ayass?

[Millennial_Messiah]

BUMP

[Millennial_Messiah]

over -1000 for the Dow Jones today and it's not even a Monday. :bobo

Just 30 more days of this please and life would be perfect.

[Millennial_Messiah]

DJI down 1,130 today and still falling... :clap


CHARGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Millennial_Messiah]

Under 31K. Down baby down!!! CHARGE!!!!!

[SpursforSix]

I got crushed on my silver contract. Thought it was a safe haven for inflation, war, bad market. Don't trade what you don't know. Hopefully I'll get that one day.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I got crushed on my silver contract. Thought it was a safe haven for inflation, war, bad market. Don't trade what you don't know. Hopefully I'll get that one day.

Lesson to be learned is: if you want precious metals, actually get the hard commodities in your possession, not contracts, stocks or bonds. All that soft shit is not protected for shit. You need to actually buy physical silver, gold, platinum etc.

[Will Hunting]

The market is rallying back to even for the day right now but I don't really see us near a bottom yet. IMO we're still just correcting for how overheated the market was 6 months ago.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The market is rallying back to even for the day right now but I don't really see us near a bottom yet. IMO we're still just correcting for how overheated the market was 6 months ago.

I predict a very slow steady (not hard) decline over the summer which is peak demand and consumption / revenue season........ but then followed by a hard crash to the 15,000 range starting around late August / beginning of September, like similar time frame of year and seasonality as 14 years ago in 2008. The fact it's about to be summer will merely delay the inevitable for 3 months.

Market crash in late summer/fall '08 -> skyrocketing unemployment -> deflation -> real estate crash -> blue tsunami in Nov '08.
Market crash in late summer/fall '22 -> skyrocketing unemployment -> deflation -> real estate crash -> red tsunami in Nov '22.

It is what it is.

[Will Hunting]

I'd love for a real estate crash to happen so I can buy a house but I don't see it. We have a massive housing shortage right now that we didn't have 15 years ago. There might be an uptick in foreclosures but the actual values of the houses aren't going to tank the way they did in 2008.

The 2008 comparisons are flawed. We didn't have rock bottom unemployment and rising wages at this time in 2008 and the market didn't crash by 20% in early 2008 the way it did this year. IMO it's still unclear how bad this recession will be.

[SpursforSix]

Lesson to be learned is: if you want precious metals, actually get the hard commodities in your possession, not contracts, stocks or bonds. All that soft shit is not protected for shit. You need to actually buy physical silver, gold, platinum etc.

There's no leverage with buying the physical. I only had to have $12,000 or so to buy a contract covering 5000 oz. To physically buy that, I would have spent over $100,000. You're definitely right about the protection aspect. But I don't expect a total meltdown in the next few years. My contract was March 2023. And I'm not sure that if everything goes to shit, having physical gold or silver means much.

[SpursforSix]

I'd love for a real estate crash to happen so I can buy a house but I don't see it. We have a massive housing shortage right now that we didn't have 15 years ago. There might be an uptick in foreclosures but the actual values of the houses aren't going to tank the way they did in 2008.

The 2008 comparisons are flawed. We didn't have rock bottom unemployment and rising wages at this time in 2008 and the market didn't crash by 20% in early 2008 the way it did this year. IMO it's still unclear how bad this recession will be.

IDK about a crash. But the property tax increase where I live has been brutal. It'll definitely tax people our of their homes even if they have no mortgage left to pay.
I can't find the article but I read that some staggering % of home sales were from investment funds. I can't remember for sure but I want to say it was like 30%.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'd love for a real estate crash to happen so I can buy a house but I don't see it. We have a massive housing shortage right now that we didn't have 15 years ago. There might be an uptick in foreclosures but the actual values of the houses aren't going to tank the way they did in 2008.

The 2008 comparisons are flawed. We didn't have rock bottom unemployment and rising wages at this time in 2008 and the market didn't crash by 20% in early 2008 the way it did this year. IMO it's still unclear how bad this recession will be.

Don't underestimate the high level of post covid home building to meet or exceed demand to make up for the losses on revenue in 2020 and 2021 due to covid that is going on this summer. I am in close touch with people with Lennar and they are expecting record home builds this summer, nationwide.

There will be a large uptick in foreclosures due to the end of covid forbearances from the banks/lenders paired with inflation + rising unemployment and underemployment.

The actual values on houses, especially in suburban areas, in raw-dollar figure will not be as low as they were from late 2008 up to 2011 due to inflation and suburban flight and dramatic increase in remote work compared to the great recession era. But they will definitely go down by substantial amounts. Reventure Consulting is a Youtube podcast I watch that has a lot of those very detailed in depth analytics on that.

As for the rock bottom unemployment, it is largely a myth because it fails to account for discouraged workers and underemployment which are both at record highs. The rising wages are to demands especially for in-person jobs that people that got all the free covid welfare money and stimulus checks didn't want to go back to post covid especially with the mask and vax restrictions in place. So employers have had to pay a premium to get back to work which also helps amplify inflation on the consumer side because the employers have to charge customers higher prices to account for the higher wages. In addition to of course all the ruthless government spending and handouts. All that "free" money has to go somewhere.

The only way out of this large mess of horse manure is immediate large scale sequestration; contractionary economic policy on both the monetary (Fed) side as well as the fiscal (Congress) side. Cut spending, raise taxes, hike interest rates. Sure it will cause a short lived recession but if the Democrats do it now they might get enough brownie points to keep the white house and win back congress in 2024. If they don't do it now then the red team will crush them not only in 2022 but potentially even harder in 2024 as we will be all going through a long-winded deep recession / depression that will last for many years.

[Millennial_Messiah]

IDK about a crash. But the property tax increase where I live has been brutal. It'll definitely tax people our of their homes even if they have no mortgage left to pay.
I can't find the article but I read that some staggering % of home sales were from investment funds. I can't remember for sure but I want to say it was like 30%.

Yup. Texas on average went up 17% on property tax year over year from 2021 to 2022. You're better off moving to a state with state income tax at this point unless your income is well into the six figures.

[SpursforSix]

Yup. Texas on average went up 17% on property tax year over year from 2021 to 2022. You're better off moving to a state with state income tax at this point unless your income is well into the six figures.

Ours went up about 35% for our home and 125% for property we own that one comp fucked us.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Ours went up about 35% for our home and 125% for property we own that one comp fucked us.

Yeah, it's definitely up more in the north than the south half of the state.

[SpursforSix]

Yeah, it's definitely up more in the north than the south half of the state.

People are happy about the values but if it’s like that for everyone, you can’t reasonably realize your gains. No one seems to get that. Renting almost as high as a mortgage. So if you sell, you better be prepared to downsize or move farther out.

[Millennial_Messiah]

People are happy about the values but if it’s like that for everyone, you can’t reasonably realize your gains. No one seems to get that. Renting almost as high as a mortgage. So if you sell, you better be prepared to downsize or move farther out.
Sell and move to Michigan or PA. Unless you vote Democrat, then move to like Saskatchewan or some shit

[Millennial_Messiah]

Renting almost as high as a mortgage.

Staying with family or living in your car costs zero

[DMC]

Staying with family or living in your car costs zero

If you're a freeloader with ambitions of being homeless, sure. Otherwise you have to pay your way. Ass, gas or grass.

[Millennial_Messiah]

If you're a freeloader with ambitions of being homeless, sure. Otherwise you have to pay your way. Ass, gas or grass.

Or you're an only child on one of your parent's side (especially if said parent is your mother who owns a house fully / mortgage free). In such case you'll never be homeless unless you can't afford the property tax.