kace
02-11-2009, 06:40 PM
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/02/10/pop-might-have-a-point/
Tuesday, February 10th, 2009...7:05 am
Pop Might Have a Point
by Timothy Varner
By one measure, this Spurs team is the worst defensive unit of the Popovich era. The Spurs currently allow 104.7 points per 100 possessions (DRtg). Not counting 1996-97, a season shared with Bob Hill, this is how Pop’s defensive teams stack up:
Year DRtg Record Outcome
2003-4 94.1 57-25 (.695) Lost in WCS
1998-99
95.0
37-13 (.740)
Won Finals
2000-1 98.0 58-24 (.707) Lost WCF
1999-0 98.6 53-29 (.646) Lost First Round
2004-5
98.8
59-23 (.720)
Won Finals
1997-98 99.4 56-26 (.683) Lost WCS
2005-6 99.6 63-19 (.768) Lost WCS
2002-3
99.7
60-22 (.732)
Won Finals
2001-2 99.7 58-24 (.707) Lost WCS
2006-7
99.9
58-24 (.707)
Won Finals
2007-8 101.8 56-26 (.683) Lost WCF
2008-9 104.7 34-15 (.694) –
This chart is not intended to unlock the mysteries of the universe. Rather, it’s simply a demonstration that this year’s defensive performance is a statistical outlier in the alarming direction. The Spurs are allowing nearly 3 more points per 100 possessions than their next worst season–by said measure–of the Popovich era. (It would be interesting to re-crunch the DRtg numbers, minus the first dozen or so games of the year. The injury-riddled Spurs that began the season challenged to own John Hollinger’s defensive rating basement. They’ve improved dramatically since then–according to Hollinger they are now the 4th best defensive team in the league.) At first blush, these numbers corroborate Popovich’s oft repeated claim that the Spurs current squad just doesn’t measure up to past glories, but they’re not in a hopeless spot.
The Spurs possess the best interior defense in the league. This despite everyone’s contention that they need to add to their frontline–a notion to which I subscribe, for the record. Moreover, as is customary, the Spurs are doing a fine job of chasing teams off the 3 point line. Their area of apparent weakness, mid-range shots, is an area of defensive concession. That is, Pop will live with teams shooting and making jumpers, so long as his players due their best to contest the shots. But I’m sure he’d prefer not to rank last in the league in points allowed on 2pt attempts. Beyond these things, I’m certain Popovich is not proud that the field goal percentages allowed in these categories are, at best, middling: at .376, they are 23rd in the league on field percantage allowed on 3 pointers; the .421 they allow on 2 point shots is dead last; .565 on inside shots is good for 5th best overall.
Coach Pop likes to rale against his team’s defense, painting them as lackluster in comparison to past squads. I have a hard time disagreeing with him. This is not to say they are awful. Far from it. They’re a good defensive team with a few noticeable chinks in the armor. But they’re the sort of chinks that need to improve as part of the Spurs usual mid-season transformation.
The chart above demonstrated that the Spurs are giving up more points per 100 possessions than any other team in the Popovich era. But the league has changed during those years, having passed through the Mike D’Antoni Suns period, for example. Given this, let’s look at these numbers from a slightly different angle. Rather than merely listing a raw number, I was curious how the Spurs DRtg compared to the league relative to season. Not surprisingly, the Spurs current team is bucking against an otherwise healthy trend:
Year DRtg Rank
1997-8 2
1998-9 1
1999-0 2
2000-1 1
2001-2 2
2002-3 3
2003-4 1
2004-5 1
2005-6 1
2006-7 2
2007-8 3
2008-9 6
It’s the current fashion to engage in trade speculation, which is fine. Our readers know that I’m of the camp that would like to see the Spurs make a move. But setting aside all the puerile prattle that accompanies trade talk, it’s clear to me that the Spurs will need to improve their defense if they are to make another championship run. Curiously, trades can help as much as hurt in this regard. An upgrade of talent is always welcome, but team defense depends so heavily on understanding schemes that bringing in players who lack a knowledge of the system is difficult on a team.
Popovich has a handful of defensive indicators by which he likes to gauge the team. Some nights, he pushes them toward 4 22s. That is, to only allow 22 points per quarter. Put differently, if the Spurs keep their opponents to 88 points or less, he likes their chances of winning games. The most telling indicator, so far as he’s concerned, is field goal percentage defense. In a perfect world, opponent’s would never shoot better than .450 from the field. When the number creeps up higher than that, Popovich becomes uneasy. As the season grinds to a conclusion, these are the sort of numbers I’ll be watching when assessing their progress.
Tuesday, February 10th, 2009...7:05 am
Pop Might Have a Point
by Timothy Varner
By one measure, this Spurs team is the worst defensive unit of the Popovich era. The Spurs currently allow 104.7 points per 100 possessions (DRtg). Not counting 1996-97, a season shared with Bob Hill, this is how Pop’s defensive teams stack up:
Year DRtg Record Outcome
2003-4 94.1 57-25 (.695) Lost in WCS
1998-99
95.0
37-13 (.740)
Won Finals
2000-1 98.0 58-24 (.707) Lost WCF
1999-0 98.6 53-29 (.646) Lost First Round
2004-5
98.8
59-23 (.720)
Won Finals
1997-98 99.4 56-26 (.683) Lost WCS
2005-6 99.6 63-19 (.768) Lost WCS
2002-3
99.7
60-22 (.732)
Won Finals
2001-2 99.7 58-24 (.707) Lost WCS
2006-7
99.9
58-24 (.707)
Won Finals
2007-8 101.8 56-26 (.683) Lost WCF
2008-9 104.7 34-15 (.694) –
This chart is not intended to unlock the mysteries of the universe. Rather, it’s simply a demonstration that this year’s defensive performance is a statistical outlier in the alarming direction. The Spurs are allowing nearly 3 more points per 100 possessions than their next worst season–by said measure–of the Popovich era. (It would be interesting to re-crunch the DRtg numbers, minus the first dozen or so games of the year. The injury-riddled Spurs that began the season challenged to own John Hollinger’s defensive rating basement. They’ve improved dramatically since then–according to Hollinger they are now the 4th best defensive team in the league.) At first blush, these numbers corroborate Popovich’s oft repeated claim that the Spurs current squad just doesn’t measure up to past glories, but they’re not in a hopeless spot.
The Spurs possess the best interior defense in the league. This despite everyone’s contention that they need to add to their frontline–a notion to which I subscribe, for the record. Moreover, as is customary, the Spurs are doing a fine job of chasing teams off the 3 point line. Their area of apparent weakness, mid-range shots, is an area of defensive concession. That is, Pop will live with teams shooting and making jumpers, so long as his players due their best to contest the shots. But I’m sure he’d prefer not to rank last in the league in points allowed on 2pt attempts. Beyond these things, I’m certain Popovich is not proud that the field goal percentages allowed in these categories are, at best, middling: at .376, they are 23rd in the league on field percantage allowed on 3 pointers; the .421 they allow on 2 point shots is dead last; .565 on inside shots is good for 5th best overall.
Coach Pop likes to rale against his team’s defense, painting them as lackluster in comparison to past squads. I have a hard time disagreeing with him. This is not to say they are awful. Far from it. They’re a good defensive team with a few noticeable chinks in the armor. But they’re the sort of chinks that need to improve as part of the Spurs usual mid-season transformation.
The chart above demonstrated that the Spurs are giving up more points per 100 possessions than any other team in the Popovich era. But the league has changed during those years, having passed through the Mike D’Antoni Suns period, for example. Given this, let’s look at these numbers from a slightly different angle. Rather than merely listing a raw number, I was curious how the Spurs DRtg compared to the league relative to season. Not surprisingly, the Spurs current team is bucking against an otherwise healthy trend:
Year DRtg Rank
1997-8 2
1998-9 1
1999-0 2
2000-1 1
2001-2 2
2002-3 3
2003-4 1
2004-5 1
2005-6 1
2006-7 2
2007-8 3
2008-9 6
It’s the current fashion to engage in trade speculation, which is fine. Our readers know that I’m of the camp that would like to see the Spurs make a move. But setting aside all the puerile prattle that accompanies trade talk, it’s clear to me that the Spurs will need to improve their defense if they are to make another championship run. Curiously, trades can help as much as hurt in this regard. An upgrade of talent is always welcome, but team defense depends so heavily on understanding schemes that bringing in players who lack a knowledge of the system is difficult on a team.
Popovich has a handful of defensive indicators by which he likes to gauge the team. Some nights, he pushes them toward 4 22s. That is, to only allow 22 points per quarter. Put differently, if the Spurs keep their opponents to 88 points or less, he likes their chances of winning games. The most telling indicator, so far as he’s concerned, is field goal percentage defense. In a perfect world, opponent’s would never shoot better than .450 from the field. When the number creeps up higher than that, Popovich becomes uneasy. As the season grinds to a conclusion, these are the sort of numbers I’ll be watching when assessing their progress.