duncan228
02-13-2009, 03:54 PM
NBA - Be Careful When You Wager (http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=nba/news/news.aspx?id=4211790)
by Jeff Frank
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The Lakers are the 3-2 favorites to win the NBA Championship, with a slight gap between the second and third choices, Boston at 5-2, and Cleveland at 3-1, respectively. More important than the odds is the distance these three teams have opened up on the rest of the league.
Orlando has the NBA's next best record at 38-13, just off the pace of its eastern compatriots Boston and Cleveland, yet the Magic are high up on the board at 7-1.
San Antonio is second choice in the West to Los Angeles, yet the Spurs are barely in the single digit range at 9-1. According to the oddsmakers, it's almost a losing gamble to wager a single penny on any of the other 25 teams as Portland is next in line at 22-1.
In some instances it's easy to predict which clubs will win championships based on odds, in others it is extremely difficult. Last year was an effortless one in that regard, as the two favorites reached the NBA Finals.
Even back at the 2007-08 All-Star break, it was almost a given the Celtics and Lakers would meet for all the marbles. Boston was 1-1 and Los Angeles was the second choice at 14-5, with four other clubs between 9-2 and 6-1.
The Celtics went on to win the NBA Championship, giving those who wagered on them a time to rejoice as well as a time to cry. Why would gamblers be in tears after the team they bet to win it all did just that? Well, it all comes down to timing. How many folks would have ever thought that Boston's odds would be higher at the end of the season than it was at the break? That's exactly what took place as the Celtics odds jumped up to 3-2 come mid- April from even money in mid-February.
Therein lies the rub when making wagers at the All-Star break. One never knows what the future will bring, and sometimes not being able to foresee that could cost you a fortune in the long run.
Two seasons ago, it was a totally different story.
The top two teams in each conference come All-Star Weekend were Detroit and Miami in the East and Dallas and Phoenix in the West. In an interesting twist, just one of those four clubs (Detroit) reached the final four, and the Pistons were prevented from going to the championship round when Cleveland got the best of them in six games.
The eventual champion Spurs, third choice in the West at the break due to a 12-10 record from January 1 through February 14, proved that being on top of your game in May and June is much more important than winning in the dog days of winter.
So how does all of this information relate to 2009? It proves that anything is possible. Two years ago, the two clubs that reached the finals were not considered major threats in the middle of the season, while last year, even when the favorite came out on top, more money could have been made just by waiting 60 more days.
Wagering on future occurrences is a losing endeavor, especially if one considers betting on only low-priced squads. Instead, try taking a shot with a club that has fallen off the radar screen. The Hornets have nose-dived into oblivion with a .500 record since January 1. Still, they share a few characteristics of the Spurs team that won it all two years ago, as San Antonio limped into the All-Star break in 2007 winning just 12 of its prior 22 games.
The Spurs had failed the year before, getting bounced in seven games in the conference semifinals. Last season, the Hornets fell in the same round in a tough seven-game series to San Antonio. Additionally, New Orleans opened this season 21-10, while the Spurs went 23-8 in their first 31 games two years ago.
San Antonio was 5-1 to win the West at this juncture in 2007, and New Orleans is currently a hefty 11-1. The Hornets are worth a flyer at double-digits.
by Jeff Frank
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The Lakers are the 3-2 favorites to win the NBA Championship, with a slight gap between the second and third choices, Boston at 5-2, and Cleveland at 3-1, respectively. More important than the odds is the distance these three teams have opened up on the rest of the league.
Orlando has the NBA's next best record at 38-13, just off the pace of its eastern compatriots Boston and Cleveland, yet the Magic are high up on the board at 7-1.
San Antonio is second choice in the West to Los Angeles, yet the Spurs are barely in the single digit range at 9-1. According to the oddsmakers, it's almost a losing gamble to wager a single penny on any of the other 25 teams as Portland is next in line at 22-1.
In some instances it's easy to predict which clubs will win championships based on odds, in others it is extremely difficult. Last year was an effortless one in that regard, as the two favorites reached the NBA Finals.
Even back at the 2007-08 All-Star break, it was almost a given the Celtics and Lakers would meet for all the marbles. Boston was 1-1 and Los Angeles was the second choice at 14-5, with four other clubs between 9-2 and 6-1.
The Celtics went on to win the NBA Championship, giving those who wagered on them a time to rejoice as well as a time to cry. Why would gamblers be in tears after the team they bet to win it all did just that? Well, it all comes down to timing. How many folks would have ever thought that Boston's odds would be higher at the end of the season than it was at the break? That's exactly what took place as the Celtics odds jumped up to 3-2 come mid- April from even money in mid-February.
Therein lies the rub when making wagers at the All-Star break. One never knows what the future will bring, and sometimes not being able to foresee that could cost you a fortune in the long run.
Two seasons ago, it was a totally different story.
The top two teams in each conference come All-Star Weekend were Detroit and Miami in the East and Dallas and Phoenix in the West. In an interesting twist, just one of those four clubs (Detroit) reached the final four, and the Pistons were prevented from going to the championship round when Cleveland got the best of them in six games.
The eventual champion Spurs, third choice in the West at the break due to a 12-10 record from January 1 through February 14, proved that being on top of your game in May and June is much more important than winning in the dog days of winter.
So how does all of this information relate to 2009? It proves that anything is possible. Two years ago, the two clubs that reached the finals were not considered major threats in the middle of the season, while last year, even when the favorite came out on top, more money could have been made just by waiting 60 more days.
Wagering on future occurrences is a losing endeavor, especially if one considers betting on only low-priced squads. Instead, try taking a shot with a club that has fallen off the radar screen. The Hornets have nose-dived into oblivion with a .500 record since January 1. Still, they share a few characteristics of the Spurs team that won it all two years ago, as San Antonio limped into the All-Star break in 2007 winning just 12 of its prior 22 games.
The Spurs had failed the year before, getting bounced in seven games in the conference semifinals. Last season, the Hornets fell in the same round in a tough seven-game series to San Antonio. Additionally, New Orleans opened this season 21-10, while the Spurs went 23-8 in their first 31 games two years ago.
San Antonio was 5-1 to win the West at this juncture in 2007, and New Orleans is currently a hefty 11-1. The Hornets are worth a flyer at double-digits.