Kori Ellis
03-07-2005, 03:22 PM
Wait until next year.
That's the mantra being pushed by the Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Hornets, Milwaukee Bucks, and Portland Trail Blazers now that the trade deadline is over – along with any hope of making the playoffs this season. With this season now a lost cause, most of the bottom feeders are already beginning to plan for the summer.
Assuming there's a $45 million cap (it could be much higher, depending on what happens with the CBA), the Hawks will have roughly $24 million in cap room. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Seattle SuperSonics will have $21 million, the Charlotte Bobcats roughly $20 million. The Los Angeles Clippers and Hornets will have about $11 million. The Bucks have cleared around $9 million. Will they really want or be able to use it? The Sonics likely will spend all of their room re-signing their own free agents. The Cavs will use roughly half of theirs in an attempt to re-up Zydrunas Ilgauskas. And the Bobcats likely will save much of their cap space for summer 2007.
That leaves the Hawks, Cavs (roughly $10 million to $12 million), Hornets, Clippers and Bobcats as the players in the free-agent market. Since only one of those teams, Cleveland, is in any position to compete for the playoffs (though the Clippers are getting close), the free-agent destinations for top veterans will be very limited.
This year's list of free agents isn't top-heavy, but it's very deep. Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Ilgauskas and Antoine Walker top the list of unrestricted veterans. Of that group, Allen and Abdur-Rahim are the most likely to bolt for new teams.
The restricted free-agent class looks much better, but remember, going after restricted free agents in the summer is always a dicey proposition. Only two top restricted free agents changed teams last summer. The Nuggets stole Kenyon Martin from the New Jersey Nets (the Nets eventually agreed to a sign-and-trade) and the Phoenix Suns pried Quentin Richardson away from the Clippers.
Here's Insider's first sneak peek at the free-agent class of 2005. Although the names on the board may leave fans breathless, there's little chance most of these guys will leave home.
Top 20 2005 Free AgentsKey: (R) = Restricted free agent | (PO) = Player Option | (TO) = Team Option
1. Michael Redd, SG, Bucks (PO)
The skinny: On July 1, 2005, Redd might be the hottest free agent on the market. He's making just $3 million in Milwaukee this year and tried to bolt the team two summers ago when he signed a three-year offer sheet with the Dallas Mavericks. Since then, he has become one of the league's best shooters and an All-Star. He'll command a huge raise and the Bucks are prepared to pay it. There has been a lot of talk all year that Redd will bolt the Bucks for the Cavs. However, the day before the trade deadline, Redd gave strong indications to the Bucks that he will re-sign with them as long as they give him a big deal. Still, look for the Cavs to make a big push this summer. The opportunity to return to his home state and play with LeBron might trump the extra year and bigger raises the Bucks can offer.
2. Ray Allen, SG, Sonics
The skinny: Of the top-tier guys on the list, Allen has the best shot of leaving. Allen tried to hammer out a big extension with the Sonics all season to no avail. The two sides essentially bickered over the last year of a five-year deal being guaranteed. Allen has threatened to bolt if the Sonics don't up their offer … but where would he go? Cleveland is the most likely destination. If the Cavs don't land Michael Redd, Allen would be an attractive option. Allen hasn't ruled out a return to Milwaukee either, though that doesn't appear likely. The Clippers could have interest, though it's unclear whether Allen would reciprocate. The rest of the teams with money will look for someone younger. All that means that if the Cavs don't come through, Allen's options will be limited to either signing with Seattle for less money or working out a sign-and-trade with the Sonics. Under the last two scenarios, the Sonics get something back in return.
3. Samuel Dalembert, PF/C, 76ers (R)
The skinny: Of all the talented big men from the class of 2001, Dalembert is the most coveted. His breakout performance last April (12.3 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 4.8 bpg) got teams drooling. This year, his performance has been all over the board, from stunning to awful. However, most NBA scouts blame head coach Jim O'Brien more than Dalembert for the center's inconsistent numbers. Dalembert has the size, athleticism and work ethic to be a force somewhere down the road. Good centers don't come along too often. When they are on the free-agent market, teams are usually willing to overpay to get them. The Sixers told everyone as the trade deadline came and went that he's untouchable and that they plan to re-sign him this summer … but at what price? Sixers GM Billy King is a big fan, but O'Brien isn't. How much do you pay a guy the coach doesn't like? And given how far the Sixers are over the luxury tax, can they afford to pay him big money? The Hawks are willing to throw near-max numbers at him. The Cavs and Sonics also are interested. As are teams willing to do a sign-and-trade, such as the Mavs and New York Knicks. Dalembert is going to get paid somewhere. … the question is whether it will be in Philly.
4. Stromile Swift, PF/C, Grizzlies
The skinny: Swift took the Grizzlies' one-year tender offer last summer so he'd be an unrestricted free agent this summer. Expect him to take advantage of it. He has never quite performed up to expectations in Memphis. Still, Swift has the athleticism, shot blocking and rebounding skills many teams covet. He might never be a great offensive player or a particularly smart player, but on an up-tempo team that likes to get out and run, he could be very, very good. Look for Hawks, Hornets, Bucks, and possibly the Cavs and Sonics, to show interest.
5. Eddy Curry, C, Bulls (R)
The skinny: Curry is one of the crop's biggest enigmas. He's a talented low-post scorer who still seems to be growing as a player. But questions about his work ethic (how can a guy that big play 20-plus minutes and grab just one rebound?) on and off the court have haunted him. The relationship between Curry and the Chicago Bulls has waxed and waned considerably over the past three seasons. There were several points this year when it seemed like a lock that Curry would be back in a Bulls uniform next season. Right now, that scenario is less than certain. Curry believes he's going to get a big contract this summer. The Bulls like Curry, but owner Jerry Reinsdorf doesn't sound ready to commit to a huge guaranteed deal for him. If Curry can persuade a team such as Atlanta or Seattle to roll the dice and offer him a big deal, will the Bulls match? GM John Paxson says yes, but it might depend on how the collective bargaining negotiations turn out. If Curry can get only a four-year deal somewhere else, the Bulls might be willing to take the risk.
6. Larry Hughes, G, Wizards
The skinny: Hughes picked a great time to have a career year. He's averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals and was well on his way toward an All-Star berth before suffering a midseason injury. There's no question the Wizards want him back and will be willing to pay him. Hughes just turned 26 and seems to be in the prime of his career. Washington likely will have competition from Milwaukee (if Redd doesn't re-sign), Cleveland and possibly the Clippers. But at the end of the day, the Wizards can offer the most money and seem inclined to do it.
7. Joe Johnson, G, Suns (R)
The skinny: People talk about Redd and Allen as the league's premier shooters, but what about Johnson? He ranks second in the league in 3-point percentage this season and 10th in 3-pointers made. Yes, he gets a lot of open shots considering that most defenses are preoccupied trying to contain Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion and Steve Nash, but Johnson has proven repeatedly that he can take over a game when needed. The Suns want him back and own his restricted rights. Suns GM Bryan Colangelo told Insider several weeks ago that the team is prepared to match any offer for him. However, Johnson hasn't sounded so sure, and for good reason. The Suns have been trying to stay out of luxury-tax land, and paying Johnson a starting salary of $7-8 million a year will put them dangerously close to the threshold. Once Phoenix extends Stoudemire to a max deal, its cap position could get out of control quickly starting in summer 2006. The Cavs will strongly consider Johnson if Redd doesn't sign with them. He's also likely to get some love from the Bobcats and possibly the Clippers. The Suns are hoping that the interest is limited and that they can re-sign him to a more modest deal. If a bidding war breaks out …
8. Shareef Abdur-Rahim, PF, Blazers
The skinny: Abdur-Rahim is an enigma. Every year, he puts up great stats for whatever team he's on, but he's never played on a team with a winning record. Never. The chances of his returning to Portland are slim. He knows that Zach Randolph is their future star at the four and doesn't want to keep playing out of position on one of the NBA's most dysfunctional franchises. At just 28, Abdur-Rahim still has plenty of juice left. But who's going to offer him the cash? Most of the teams with money are already set at his position or are looking for someone young. A number of veteran teams – including the Nets, Timberwolves and Heat – would love to get their hands on him, but all they have to offer is a mid-level exception. The Blazers might be willing to do a sign-and-trade, but given how screwed up things in Portland are right now, who knows what the team will do?
9. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, Cavs
The skinny: It's pretty rare when an All-Star-caliber center comes on the unrestricted market. Ilgauskas has issues. He turns 30 in June and, despite having played relatively injury free basketball the last few seasons, he has a history of foot injuries that would scare away any team doctor. However, his ability to score in the paint and block shots makes him a coveted commodity in a league that lacks big guys. The Cavs want to re-sign him, but for no more than a four-year deal that pays him roughly $44 million. If Ilgauskas pushes for more, the Cavs might wait him out this summer. Like Rahim, he doesn't have many potential suitors among the teams that have cap room, and the Cavs have no interest in a sign-and-trade, closing off that avenue. If Ilgauskas has to choose between taking $5 million in the mid-level exception and taking $10 million from the Cavs, what do you think he'll choose?
10. Bobby Simmons, G/F, Clippers
The skinny: Simmons stands to be one of the more coveted free agents on the market because he's an unrestricted free agent, plays for the Clippers and shouldn't break a bank account to get signed. Simmons has been improving throughout the season. In February, he averaged 20 ppg while shooting 50 percent from the field and 57 percent from 3. He's versatile, a great rebounder for his size and one of the league's best free-throw shooters. In that he's a hardworking kid who doesn't turn 25 until mid-June, what isn't there to like about him? The Clippers want him back badly, but they are likely to get some serious competition from teams such as the Bobcats, Hornets and possibly Cavs.
11. Vladimir Radmanovic, F, Sonics (R)
The skinny: Radmanovic was the leading contender to win Sixth Man of The Year before injuring his wrist in mid-February. He has been a critical component in the Sonics' unlikely run this year and has a lot of fans around the league. He'd like to get out of Seattle and move to a team willing to give him a starting role. Although there are a number of teams that would be interested, Radmanovic's problem is the competition at his position going into the summer. According to a number of teams Insider talked to, Redd, Allen, Hughes, Johnson and Simmons all rank higher on the boards of teams that have money to spend. If a number of other options fall through, teams such as Cleveland, Milwaukee and possibly Atlanta are interested. However, if those teams find help somewhere else, Radmanovic might be forced to take the mid-level exception. A number of teams would be interested in giving it to him, but at that point it's likely the Sonics would match.
12. Marko Jaric, PG, Clippers (R)
The skinny: When Jaric has been healthy, he has looked very solid. A number of teams, including the Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic, Blazers and Sacramento Kings are interested, but none of them has more than the mid-level to make something happen. The Cavs have more to offer and are interested, but might be unwilling to lock up their cap space for 15 days while they wait for L.A. to match. The Clippers are inclined to keep him anyway, as long as the bidding doesn't get out of control for both Jaric and Simmons. Los Angeles has a nice young nucleus that should continue to improve as long as the players stay healthy.
13. Kwame Brown, PF/C, Wizards(R)
The skinny: It might have taken him all season, but Brown finally is starting to show a glimmer of promise again. After spending most of the year on the injured list, Brown has been more than solid in his last four games, averaging 9.5 ppg and 10.8 rpg. No, those aren't numbers you'd normally associate with No. 1 picks in their fourth year in the league, but the Wizards will take what they can get. The truth is, Brown might be averaging more points per game if Gilbert Arenas or Larry Hughes would ever pass him the ball. Neither Brown nor Antawn Jamison is getting a lot of love lately. If Brown finishes the season strong, there will be teams interested. There aren't a lot of athletic, 7-foot 23-year-olds on the market. A team such as Atlanta, desperate to turn around its fortunes, might just send a significant contract his way. Brown played high school ball in Atlanta and still has a fan base there. Given the load of cash the Hawks have to work with, they might be able to afford him, Dalembert and a point guard such as Earl Watson. Would the Wizards match? Like every other team in the league with a restricted free agent, they claim they'll match any offer. They have to claim that. But with a big payday coming for Hughes, can they afford to keep Brown? If they can keep Hughes' starting salary below $8 million and Brown's around $6 million, they should be all right.
14. Tyson Chandler, PF/C, Bulls (R)
The skinny: Chandler is having another up-and-down season for the Bulls. He has stayed healthy, been terrific on the boards again and shown signs that he's an emerging shot blocker. But his offensive game has really stagnated. He still hasn't developed any semblance of a low-post game, getting most of his shots off offensive rebounds and a nice little 10-foot jumper. The Bulls like his work ethic and what he brings to the team, but aren't going to overspend to keep him. It's doubtful any of the teams with cap room will, either, making it pretty likely Chandler will return to Chicago with a reasonable deal.
15. Antoine Walker, F, Celtics
The skinny: Walker's reemergence in Boston should pay off for him this summer. Although Walker put up decent numbers in Atlanta this season, most teams wrote them off as meaningless. His abysmal plus/minus numbers for the Hawks, among the worst in the league, weren't helping his cause. But he has been a spark for the Celtics, helping Paul Pierce get happy again and making Danny Ainge look like a genius. But what happens this summer? No teams with cap room are going to show serious interest in Walker. The Celtics might be willing to re-sign Walker, but not for anything near the $14 million he makes this season. Cut that number in half and the Celtics might start talking, however. Walker might have no choice but to take it or a bigger pay cut for another team's (the Knicks and Sixers come to mind) mid-level exception.
16. Kyle Korver, SF, 76ers (R)
The skinny: Korver has turned himself into one of the NBA's sweetest long-range shooters and should get a lot of attention from teams willing to use their mid-level exceptions. The Sixers want to keep him and can match any offer up to the mid-level. However, if a team offers more, the Sixers cannot match (they own only Korver's early Bird rights). Will any team do that? The Cavs and Bucks might show some interest depending how things play out above, but at this point it looks unlikely.
17. Earl Watson, PG, Grizzlies
The skinny: Watson remains one of the most underrated point guards in the league and should generate significant interest this summer. He has played backup to Jason Williams most of his career, but his player efficiency ratings make him, at the very least, Williams' equal. He's one of the better defensive point guards in the league, and he keeps turnovers to a minimum. He won't score a lot of points thanks to a faulty jumper, but he definitely can run a team. Teams such as the Hawks, Jazz, Bobcats, Cavs, Houston Rockets, Bucks, Magic and Blazers should all have interest, and Watson should be available. Jerry West loves him, but with the Grizzlies' payroll spiraling out of control, it's likely they won't be able to re-sign Watson, who can get a deal elsewhere starting at four or five million per. Given Watson's desire to be a starter, it's unlikely that he would choose to re-up with Memphis even if the Grizzlies could afford him.
18. Antonio Daniels, PG, Sonics (PO)
The skinny: Daniels is another contender for the Sixth Man of The Year award who will likely try to bolt Seattle this summer. He has posted two solid seasons in Seattle, is one of the better point guard defenders in the league and has improved his jump shot to the point that defenders have to at least guard him now. He has become increasingly comfortable as a point guard the last two seasons and should become a solid starter on a team such as the Rockets, who are looking for more size and leadership at the position.
19. Damon Stoudamire, PG, Blazers
The skinny: Stoudamire turns 32 in September, but he has proven this year that he still has some gas left in the tank. The Blazers seem committed to handing the reins of the team over to Sebastian Telfair next season, which means Stoudamire will have to find a new home. A team such as the Miami Heat might bring him in using its mid-level exception.
20. Donyell Marshall, F, Raptors
The skinny: Marshall became one of the most coveted guys on the trading block last fall and will likely get a lot of interest (for the mid-level exception) from the same teams that pursued him this winter: the Bulls, Rockets, Heat and Sixers.
Best of the rest
Player/Team Option: Shaquille O'Neal, C, Heat (PO); Keith Van Horn, F, Mavericks (PO); Cuttino Mobley, SG, Kings (PO); Jalen Rose, SG, Raptors (PO); Grant Hill, SF, Magic (PO); Jamal Mashburn, SF, Hornets (PO); Bonzi Wells, SG, Grizzlies (TO); Eddie Jones, SG, Heat (PO); Nick Van Exel, PG, Blazers (TO); Bobby Jackson, PG, Kings (TO); Darius Songaila, F, Kings (PO); Damon Jones, PG, Heat (PO); Devean George, SF, Los Angeles Lakers (PO); Predrag Drobnjak, C, Hawks (TO); Austin Croshere, F, Pacers (PO); Clifford Robinson, F, Nets (TO)
Note: It's very unlikely most of the players on the above list will exercise their player options – that's why they weren't listed on the Top-20 list. The only exceptions could be Mobley, Damon Jones and Songaila, who might opt out in an attempt to get more money elsewhere.
Unrestricted: Gary Payton, PG, Celtics; Latrell Sprewell, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves; Jeff McInnis, PG, Cavs; Dan Dickau, PG, Hornets; Dale Davis, C, Golden State Warriors; Kerry Kittles, SG, Clippers; Glenn Robinson, SF, Hornets; Jerome James, C, Sonics; Jahidi White, C, Bobcats; Bo Outlaw, F, Grizzlies; Ervin Johnson, C, Timberwolves; Raja Bell, G/F, Jazz; Mark Madsen, F, Timberwolves; Tyronn Lue, PG, Rockets; Darrell Armstrong, PG, Mavericks.
Restricted: Udonis Haslem, F, Heat; Gerald Wallace, G/F, Bobcats; Dan Gadzuric, C, Bucks; Zaza Pachulia, C, Bucks; Reggie Evans, F, Sonics; Ronald Murray, G, Sonics; Luke Walton, F, Lakers; Jason Kapono, F, Bobcats; Willie Green, G, Sixers; Matt Bonner, F, Raptors
Around the league
Wilting in the Rose City: Now that Maurice Cheeks has been ousted in Portland, what's management's excuse going to be this time around?
It's no secret that Cheeks was getting kicked to the curb this summer, but the Blazers have managed to turn a bad situation into a fiasco with their bumbling.
First, their decision to fire Cheeks and replace him with director of player personnel Kevin Pritchard has raised more than a few eyebrows around the league. Pritchard has no NBA coaching experience, either as a head coach or an assistant. He did, however, captain the Kansas City Knights, a fledgling ABA team for a couple of seasons.
The next day, assistant coach Tim Grgurich, one of the most respected assistant coaches in the business, resigned in disgust despite the Blazers' pleadings that he stay on board.
Pritchard got the job because he's willing to play the guys GM John Nash and President Steve Patterson want to see get minutes and spy on the rest of the team.
"Moving forward, we need to really evaluate what we have, and what better way to do that than for the player personnel director to get under the hood and take a look," Pritchard said. "Our future's bright, we're going to see what we really are, we have some young talented guys who are fun to watch. We don't know exactly where they are developmentally, but we hope to figure that out in the next seven-eight weeks, and help us build, that is what this is all about."
Pritchard and the Blazers both say he's not the long-term solution as a coach. They'll likely try to tap Flip Saunders for that role in the summer. However, will Saunders really be interested? Most coaches hate front offices that insist on micromanaging how they coach and whom they play.
To make matters worse, it's unclear whether Nash and Patterson have a clue what they're doing in the first place.
Cheeks claims that Nash and he weren't even speaking the last few months. Couple that with a revelation, courtesy of The (Portland) Oregonian, that neither Nash nor Patterson bothers to attend practices and it shouldn't come as much of a surprise when Pritchard admitted that the front office doesn't have a clue where this team is developmentally.
Their inability to pull off a trade, combined with their screwing up the payroll last summer with the Theo Ratliff and Zach Randolph extensions, has put the team in an unenviable position. The team now goes into the summer broken, with no real cap room to fix it.
With Nash's contract status for next season still up in the air (the team has an option on him it has yet to exercise), the speculation about Nash's future in Portland is understandable. Patterson should be on the block, too, as it seems apparent that nothing gets done in Portland without his approval.
Two years into those two's tenure, the team has less talent, has lost some cap flexibility and has been unable to shake its bad rep in the community.
While there will clearly be another roster shake-up this summer, Paul Allen must think long and hard about letting Patterson and Nash make the changes.
Crucial time in Cleveland: Speaking of front office turmoil, the speculation in Cleveland is running rampant that new owner Dan Gilbert plans to shake up the Cavs' front office this summer.
When asked about the status of current GM Jim Paxson, Gilbert didn't have much to say.
"We had some conversations with Jim," Gilbert told The (Willoughby, Ohio) News-Herald. "We have to make sure we're in the playoffs this year. We should focus on getting to the playoffs this year and going as far as we can."
The Cavs' recent slide hasn't helped things. Sunday night's loss was Cleveland's sixth straight. A month ago, the Cavaliers were challenging the Pistons for the Central Division lead. Now there's a chance they might not even make the playoffs.
LeBron James, for one, isn't happy, about it.
"We could easily go down the [tubes] and not make the playoffs," James said Sunday. "Before the All-Star break, we were playing a lot of under-.500 teams. They were teams we were supposed to beat, but not anymore. After the All-Star break, we're playing the best teams in the league, and we've shown we're not one of the best teams in the league. We have to work hard and get this thing back."
If the Cavs can't stop the slide, chances are high that both Paxson and head coach Paul Silas are gone. But even if they do make it, there's a possibility big changes could go down this summer.
Persuading LeBron to stick it out in Cleveland will be a monumental task. The Cavs not only have to make the right choices in free agency this summer but also have to find the right coach and upgrade almost every area of the organization.
The minute Gilbert took over as the owner of the Cavs, the clock started ticking. He has roughly two years to create a world-class organization that can persuade LeBron to sign a long-term contract.
With the length of contracts likely to be shortened, along with raises, the Cavs' advantages in keeping LeBron are likely to get slimmer. As Insider first reported months ago, James has lucrative kickers in his endorsement contracts should he move to New York, Chicago or L.A.
Persuading LeBron to stick it out in Cleveland will be a monumental task. The Cavs not only have to make the right choices in free agency this summer but also have to find the right coach and upgrade almost every area of the organization.
Forgive Gilbert if he's not confident that Paxson is the right guy for the job. Not only has Paxson made some egregious errors in the draft and free agency over the years, he doesn't have the freewheeling, entrepreneurial personality Gilbert values.
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
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