duncan228
02-22-2009, 12:25 AM
2010 free-agent frenzy has fizzled (http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/spurs/2010_free-agent_frenzy_has_fizzled.html)
Mike Monroe
Teams that have been stockpiling salary cap space for the summer of 2010 got doused with icy water last week when commissioner David Stern warned teams that today's economic reality is going to do for the cap what the housing slump has done for home values.
Since the cap was instituted in 1984, general managers safely assumed an annual increase. Only once, when the cap dipped by $2.2 million between the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons, has it not grown. Then, a new TV contract, negotiated during what now qualifies as a very mild recession, resulted in the cap falling.
Even accounting for that one-year decline, the average annual increase in the decade that began just before the new millennium was nearly $2 million.
Now, one league executive says he and most of his colleagues expect a drop this summer of between $2 million and $3 million, with the luxury tax threshold dipping from $71.15 million to somewhere just south of $70 million.
What this means is that the tectonic NBA power shift some predicted for the summer of 2010 is more apt to fizzle than the feared computer chaos that was supposed to ensue with the arrival of Y2K.
If you think there were a lot of teams more interested in dumping salaries last week than in building championship rosters, just wait until this summer. Just don't expect the sort of freewheeling market for the highest of high-profile free agents we've all been anticipating at 12:01 a.m. on July 1, 2010.
For all the major deals that were rumored last week, we were left Thursday afternoon with a competitive balance largely unchanged, especially in the Western Conference.
What the trade deadline could not do, misfortune has. Injuries have altered the power structure in ways no GM could negotiate.
Here's how the West shapes up for the stretch run with rosters now set (unless Joe Smith is cut free by the Thunder and signed by a contender) and injuries taking their toll on every potential playoff team:
Lakers: The other Western contenders believe Andrew Bynum will be back before the regular season ends, which may not be good for Lamar Odom, but ought to bring that Zen smile back to Phil Jackson's visage. With or without Bynum, they're still best in the West.
Nuggets: Relatively healthy — Kenyon Martin's back spasms are a worry — and held together by Chauncey Billups, they're positioned to leapfrog the Spurs if Manu Ginobili really misses three weeks.
Spurs: Unless Ginobili's stress reaction means he misses more than a dozen games, they'll still have a top-four finish. Their goal: being in the opposite bracket from the Lakers.
Hornets: Can't beat Spurs in a playoff series unless Tyson Chandler is 100 percent. At least one doc in Oklahoma believes that's impossible.
Rockets: What does Tracy McGrady's season-ending microfracture surgery mean? Now they might leapfrog Hornets.
Trail Blazers: Greg Oden can't stay healthy, but they're deep enough to prosper without him.
Jazz: Watch out for them. Kirilenko came back Thursday and Boozer is due back soon.
Mavericks: Only player more vital to their playoff positioning than Jason Terry? Dirk Nowitzki.
Suns: Just when they were putting the fun back in the game, Stoudemire is gone for eight weeks.
Mike Monroe
Teams that have been stockpiling salary cap space for the summer of 2010 got doused with icy water last week when commissioner David Stern warned teams that today's economic reality is going to do for the cap what the housing slump has done for home values.
Since the cap was instituted in 1984, general managers safely assumed an annual increase. Only once, when the cap dipped by $2.2 million between the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons, has it not grown. Then, a new TV contract, negotiated during what now qualifies as a very mild recession, resulted in the cap falling.
Even accounting for that one-year decline, the average annual increase in the decade that began just before the new millennium was nearly $2 million.
Now, one league executive says he and most of his colleagues expect a drop this summer of between $2 million and $3 million, with the luxury tax threshold dipping from $71.15 million to somewhere just south of $70 million.
What this means is that the tectonic NBA power shift some predicted for the summer of 2010 is more apt to fizzle than the feared computer chaos that was supposed to ensue with the arrival of Y2K.
If you think there were a lot of teams more interested in dumping salaries last week than in building championship rosters, just wait until this summer. Just don't expect the sort of freewheeling market for the highest of high-profile free agents we've all been anticipating at 12:01 a.m. on July 1, 2010.
For all the major deals that were rumored last week, we were left Thursday afternoon with a competitive balance largely unchanged, especially in the Western Conference.
What the trade deadline could not do, misfortune has. Injuries have altered the power structure in ways no GM could negotiate.
Here's how the West shapes up for the stretch run with rosters now set (unless Joe Smith is cut free by the Thunder and signed by a contender) and injuries taking their toll on every potential playoff team:
Lakers: The other Western contenders believe Andrew Bynum will be back before the regular season ends, which may not be good for Lamar Odom, but ought to bring that Zen smile back to Phil Jackson's visage. With or without Bynum, they're still best in the West.
Nuggets: Relatively healthy — Kenyon Martin's back spasms are a worry — and held together by Chauncey Billups, they're positioned to leapfrog the Spurs if Manu Ginobili really misses three weeks.
Spurs: Unless Ginobili's stress reaction means he misses more than a dozen games, they'll still have a top-four finish. Their goal: being in the opposite bracket from the Lakers.
Hornets: Can't beat Spurs in a playoff series unless Tyson Chandler is 100 percent. At least one doc in Oklahoma believes that's impossible.
Rockets: What does Tracy McGrady's season-ending microfracture surgery mean? Now they might leapfrog Hornets.
Trail Blazers: Greg Oden can't stay healthy, but they're deep enough to prosper without him.
Jazz: Watch out for them. Kirilenko came back Thursday and Boozer is due back soon.
Mavericks: Only player more vital to their playoff positioning than Jason Terry? Dirk Nowitzki.
Suns: Just when they were putting the fun back in the game, Stoudemire is gone for eight weeks.