tlongII
03-03-2009, 12:23 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/9282508/Trail-Blazers-headed-in-right-direction
http://msn.foxsports.com/id/9282166_18_1.jpg
Portland stood pat at the trade deadline with good reason. Randy Hill says a young nucleus has the Blazers on the right path.
The drama-rama that permeates the NBA's Western Conference has several teams angling to steal the stretch-run spotlight.
In Salt Lake City, the Utah Jazz are attempting to parlay their return to relative health into a playoff seed that generates home-court advantage in Round 1. That's also the goal in Houston, where the Rockets have been rollin' without Tracy McGrady and Rafer Alston.
The doomed trade of Tyson Chandler has 'em talkin' in New Orleans, where the Hornets are hoping their 7-foot-1 center is fit enough to help the Hornets play as well as we were expecting them to play.
Jason Terry's injured wrist has been the buzz in Dallas, where owner Mark Cuban — although relatively quiet on his terms — keeps the Mavericks viable in most news cycles.
And Phoenix may lead this league in soap-opera premises, but now any seed will do as the Suns attempt a season-saving rally.
But relatively little attention is mustered in Portland, where the left knee of redshirt rookie center Greg Oden is inspiring the most national interest. The Trail Blazers, who currently are sitting on the fifth seed in a tightly bunched Western pack, are led by a radar-skimming star in Brandon Roy and are right where most of us thought they'd be.
How did they go from out of the playoffs last season to home-court contender this season? Well, most of this upward skip can be attributed to the magical variable of on-the-job experience. The Blazers simply have a couple of really good young players (power forward LaMarcus Aldridge is the other) who are getting better and a few others with the potential to be far above average.
The chronologically explained improvement has been abetted now and then by the presence of the 7-foot Oden, whose roller-coaster performance casts Portland in the role of darkhorse for this season and maybe a couple more.
Before examining the Blazers' potential Western Conference footprint, let's look at what Oden — who has missed the last seven games courtesy of a bone chip in that left knee — has accomplished. In his 46 games (39 as a starter), the one-year Ohio State wonder has averaged nine points and 7.2 rebounds over 23 minutes.
Oden also is credited with 16 double-doubles, a nice and possibly revealing statistic that is somewhat diminished when we remind you that Greg is giving Portland just 5.6 and 4.8 in the 14 games against the conference's eight other solid playoff contenders.
While we're digging into Oden, please note that the Blazers (37-22) are a salty 9-4 in the games he's missed, but a mediocre 4-4 without Greg against quality foes.
So Oden's knee, his raw footwork on offense and that sub-par lateral footwork on defense are teaming up as issues in Portland's future as a potential Finals contender.
But as their center occupies a space tucked safely between Bill Russell and Sam Bowie, the Blazers seem to be stuck in that void that separates potential and arrival.
The big test for management was to determine where they are right now, what they can become and when.
That's why general manager Kevin Pritchard was one of the most closely watched personnel sharpies during the NBA's recently expired trading-deadline deliberations. With several unsolicited advisors assisting him, Pritchard was informed the Blazers needed a third scoring option, preferably a small forward with more consistency than super-sub Travis Outlaw and much greater offensive chops than rookie Nicolas Batum.
The reported candidates included Charlotte's hard-working Gerald Wallace, highly compensated New Jersey Net Vince Carter and the accomplished Richard Jefferson of the Milwaukee Bucks. After sifting through the list of names that might go away in one of these deals and the length of a big contract coming to Portland in return, Pritchard and the Blazers decided to remain status quo.
While attempting to ride the existing roster into a better playoff position, the Blazers will go into the summer buying season armed with a new trade exception and only $50 million in committed salaries (thank you, Raef LaFrentz) for the 2009-2010 campaign.
In my opinion, Pritchard's patience should reward Portland with the greatest opportunity for long-term success. Adding one of the aforementioned players may have pushed this team into the second round, but probably not to ultimate NBA glory.
The diminishing return on one of those big contracts may have undermined the franchise when extensions are due for key players on the current rotation, which — unless a trade occurs — will return intact next season (for the record, I really whiffed by missing Roy on my list of underpaid players in a column last week).
It also was reported that coach Nate McMillan — who was dealing with an injury to Steve Blake at the time — had pre-deadline concerns about his point guards. But a quick review of the numbers indicates the Blazers are ranked second in offensive efficiency; getting the ball in the basket out of their patterned sets doesn't seem to be a problem.
Portland also checks in at 30th in possessions per 48 minutes, which suggests that instead of going nowhere fast, a slower, half-court oriented offense is allowed to flow through the playing skills of Roy. And if the point guard du jour can bring the ball into the forecourt without incident, defend the position and make open shots, point guard concerns may be overblown.
It should be noted that the league's most statistically efficient offense can be found in Los Angeles, where the Lakers punish the scoreboard with no card-carrying point guard in the starting lineup. This doesn't mean Roy is the equal of Kobe Bryant as a defense-challenging threat or that the Blazers need to run the triangle. But it does reveal that — especially as rookie Jerryd Bayless continues to evolve — the Blazers can flourish without spitting up a key rotation player for someone who fits the point guard definition on offense without being able to defend.
But going forward (in time and in the conference standings), Portland and its maturing roster must commit to a consistently stingy effort on defense. The Blazers are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency, which is last among teams currently registered as playoff-bound.
Goal-tending improvement from Oden — with rebounding and fly-swatting assistance from Aldridge — also improves the Blazers' overall versatility by allowing McMillan to play three perimeter-oriented players at the same time. This (in theory) would boost defensive pressure and allow greater spacing and dribble penetration on offense.
Tactics and player groupings can be irrelevant without leadership from a premier player, and the Blazers have one in Roy. Blazer fans eventually may rejoice that Pritchard didn't compromise future roster flexibility by attempting to swing for the fences now. Sure, the window of title opportunity doesn't stay open forever, but Portland's is barely cracked.
How far the Blazers go in the coming years depends on how Pritchard massages the cap in building around Roy.
Considering the wisdom used in acquiring Roy in the first place, I'd say the franchise is in pretty good shape.
http://msn.foxsports.com/id/9282166_18_1.jpg
Portland stood pat at the trade deadline with good reason. Randy Hill says a young nucleus has the Blazers on the right path.
The drama-rama that permeates the NBA's Western Conference has several teams angling to steal the stretch-run spotlight.
In Salt Lake City, the Utah Jazz are attempting to parlay their return to relative health into a playoff seed that generates home-court advantage in Round 1. That's also the goal in Houston, where the Rockets have been rollin' without Tracy McGrady and Rafer Alston.
The doomed trade of Tyson Chandler has 'em talkin' in New Orleans, where the Hornets are hoping their 7-foot-1 center is fit enough to help the Hornets play as well as we were expecting them to play.
Jason Terry's injured wrist has been the buzz in Dallas, where owner Mark Cuban — although relatively quiet on his terms — keeps the Mavericks viable in most news cycles.
And Phoenix may lead this league in soap-opera premises, but now any seed will do as the Suns attempt a season-saving rally.
But relatively little attention is mustered in Portland, where the left knee of redshirt rookie center Greg Oden is inspiring the most national interest. The Trail Blazers, who currently are sitting on the fifth seed in a tightly bunched Western pack, are led by a radar-skimming star in Brandon Roy and are right where most of us thought they'd be.
How did they go from out of the playoffs last season to home-court contender this season? Well, most of this upward skip can be attributed to the magical variable of on-the-job experience. The Blazers simply have a couple of really good young players (power forward LaMarcus Aldridge is the other) who are getting better and a few others with the potential to be far above average.
The chronologically explained improvement has been abetted now and then by the presence of the 7-foot Oden, whose roller-coaster performance casts Portland in the role of darkhorse for this season and maybe a couple more.
Before examining the Blazers' potential Western Conference footprint, let's look at what Oden — who has missed the last seven games courtesy of a bone chip in that left knee — has accomplished. In his 46 games (39 as a starter), the one-year Ohio State wonder has averaged nine points and 7.2 rebounds over 23 minutes.
Oden also is credited with 16 double-doubles, a nice and possibly revealing statistic that is somewhat diminished when we remind you that Greg is giving Portland just 5.6 and 4.8 in the 14 games against the conference's eight other solid playoff contenders.
While we're digging into Oden, please note that the Blazers (37-22) are a salty 9-4 in the games he's missed, but a mediocre 4-4 without Greg against quality foes.
So Oden's knee, his raw footwork on offense and that sub-par lateral footwork on defense are teaming up as issues in Portland's future as a potential Finals contender.
But as their center occupies a space tucked safely between Bill Russell and Sam Bowie, the Blazers seem to be stuck in that void that separates potential and arrival.
The big test for management was to determine where they are right now, what they can become and when.
That's why general manager Kevin Pritchard was one of the most closely watched personnel sharpies during the NBA's recently expired trading-deadline deliberations. With several unsolicited advisors assisting him, Pritchard was informed the Blazers needed a third scoring option, preferably a small forward with more consistency than super-sub Travis Outlaw and much greater offensive chops than rookie Nicolas Batum.
The reported candidates included Charlotte's hard-working Gerald Wallace, highly compensated New Jersey Net Vince Carter and the accomplished Richard Jefferson of the Milwaukee Bucks. After sifting through the list of names that might go away in one of these deals and the length of a big contract coming to Portland in return, Pritchard and the Blazers decided to remain status quo.
While attempting to ride the existing roster into a better playoff position, the Blazers will go into the summer buying season armed with a new trade exception and only $50 million in committed salaries (thank you, Raef LaFrentz) for the 2009-2010 campaign.
In my opinion, Pritchard's patience should reward Portland with the greatest opportunity for long-term success. Adding one of the aforementioned players may have pushed this team into the second round, but probably not to ultimate NBA glory.
The diminishing return on one of those big contracts may have undermined the franchise when extensions are due for key players on the current rotation, which — unless a trade occurs — will return intact next season (for the record, I really whiffed by missing Roy on my list of underpaid players in a column last week).
It also was reported that coach Nate McMillan — who was dealing with an injury to Steve Blake at the time — had pre-deadline concerns about his point guards. But a quick review of the numbers indicates the Blazers are ranked second in offensive efficiency; getting the ball in the basket out of their patterned sets doesn't seem to be a problem.
Portland also checks in at 30th in possessions per 48 minutes, which suggests that instead of going nowhere fast, a slower, half-court oriented offense is allowed to flow through the playing skills of Roy. And if the point guard du jour can bring the ball into the forecourt without incident, defend the position and make open shots, point guard concerns may be overblown.
It should be noted that the league's most statistically efficient offense can be found in Los Angeles, where the Lakers punish the scoreboard with no card-carrying point guard in the starting lineup. This doesn't mean Roy is the equal of Kobe Bryant as a defense-challenging threat or that the Blazers need to run the triangle. But it does reveal that — especially as rookie Jerryd Bayless continues to evolve — the Blazers can flourish without spitting up a key rotation player for someone who fits the point guard definition on offense without being able to defend.
But going forward (in time and in the conference standings), Portland and its maturing roster must commit to a consistently stingy effort on defense. The Blazers are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency, which is last among teams currently registered as playoff-bound.
Goal-tending improvement from Oden — with rebounding and fly-swatting assistance from Aldridge — also improves the Blazers' overall versatility by allowing McMillan to play three perimeter-oriented players at the same time. This (in theory) would boost defensive pressure and allow greater spacing and dribble penetration on offense.
Tactics and player groupings can be irrelevant without leadership from a premier player, and the Blazers have one in Roy. Blazer fans eventually may rejoice that Pritchard didn't compromise future roster flexibility by attempting to swing for the fences now. Sure, the window of title opportunity doesn't stay open forever, but Portland's is barely cracked.
How far the Blazers go in the coming years depends on how Pritchard massages the cap in building around Roy.
Considering the wisdom used in acquiring Roy in the first place, I'd say the franchise is in pretty good shape.