How Drew Gooden has done against our likely playoff opponents

[whottt]

This is something I usually look up when forming an opinion on whether or not a player will be a good pick up and increase our changes of winning a title.

Pretty much the first thing I do when ever we get a new player is go look at their career splits VS LA to see if they are any kind of a Laker Killer since that is the team that has eliminated the Spurs 4 out of the 5 times they've been eliminated in the championship era. Usually these splits against LA are not impressive and if they are it's generally a good reason to be excited. Laker Killers are hard to come by, especially bigmen Laker Killers.

The way I figure it we've got about 5 teams we need to be worried about in addition to the Lakers. The Hornets(because of last year), Celtics, Cavs, Rockets and Nuggets also figure to give the Spurs a pretty good challenge should we meet them in the post season.

In the case of Drew Gooden the guy's talent is unquestionable, but talent isn't enough to make a contribution to the Spurs' ambitions.

So let's see what Drew's got to offer against our biggest challengers. Let's see if he's got x-factor potential against any of them.

First of all, here are his career averages in the 3 main categories of interest:

PPG: 12.1
FG%: 47%
RBG: 8.0


Now let's compare those numbers to the splits VS the 6 teams expected to be our toughest competition and see where they rank in comparison to his totals against other teams.

1. New Orleans

Games: 13
PPG: 11.9 18th
FG: 48.4% 11th
RBG: 9.7 2nd :smokin

His rebounding and FG% totals against the Hornets are better than his career averages and his PPG total is only .3 under his career average. All in all it looks pretty promising that he'll do well against the Hornets. Those are good numbers.

Rankwise he's a little under average offensively but that is offset by the fact that he rebounds extremely well against them. Since rebounding is the main reason he was signed it definitely appears he'll have something to contibute against the Hornets.


2. Denver

Games: 13
PPG: 12.7 13th
FG%: 42.6 24th
RBG: 8.7 8th

Again he puts up some nice rebounding totals that are over his career average. His PPG total is also over his career average but since it is accompanied by one of his worst shooting percentages against any team it's not that really that much of a plus.

Since he was mainly signed for his rebounding and it appears he does that well against the Nuggets, traditionally, he should be a positive against them.


3. Houston

Games: 13
PPG: 9.7 28th
FG%: 40.2 30th :depressed
RBG: 6.4 29th

Uhg. All 3 numbers are well below his career averages and his numbers rank dead last or close to it against them in the two most important categories. Based on those numbers I'd say he's not going to help a whole lot against the Rockets as they are pretty much the team he plays the worst against. Still, the Rockets have been good defensive team more or less over the course of Gooden's entire career up until this point so I'd hardly say those results are surprising or unusual among most bigmen in the NBA.


4. Cleveland

Games: 8
PPG: 10.6 25th
FG%: 41.6% 27th
RBG: 8.9 6th

That's a pretty small sample of games played against the Cavs but it doesn't look like he's shot the ball particularly well against them. Not surprising since the Cavs have been a great defensive team in recent years and probably half of those games have come against them since he was traded for Ben Wallace. His rebounding however is very nice and given that any matchup with the Cavs will likely be a defensive struggle in the NBA finals I'd say he definitely has something to offer against his old team. That's in addition to any inside knowledge he may have about them as a former Cavs player.


5. LA

Games: 13
PPG: 8.9 30th
FG%: 41.7 26th
RBG: 6.9 27th

Sigh. This is the main reason I wasn't that excited over the idea of Gooden signing with the Spurs. To be fair none of the other bigs on our roster have very good numbers against LA but it would have been nice to see some here. Compared to our other bigs he might have good numbers relatively speaking but there's still nothing here to indicate he's going to be a positive against LA. No x-factor here based on these numbers and he'll be doing good to play at an average level against them.


6. Boston

Games: 21
PPG: 11.1 23rd
FG%: 48.2 12th
RBG: 6.7 28th

Sort of a mixed bag here. His rebounding against the Celtics has been below average but his shooting PCT has been pretty decent. I'm also not sure how much stock to place in these numbers, inspite of the largest sample size, due to the fact that Boston was remade last year from just about the worst team in the NBA into the best. I do think his shooting PCT has some merit though as not a lot has changed defensively inside for the Celtics. Yes they are better with Garnett but Gooden is not the type of player Garnett does a real good job of shutting down, and Perkins has been defending the paint in Boston for a few yers now. Overall I'd say he's not going to be much of an x-factor against Boston.



Just for kicks let's see what he looks like against the Spurs to find out if we've been seeing him at his best, or as he typically plays.

Reason?

Well for example, Rasho's career best numbers were against the Spurs and that's part of the reason the Spurs went after him when he became a FA.


San Antonio

PPG: 12.9 7th
FG%: 46.1% 18th
RBG: 7.5 21st

We've seen him at close to his best in terms of scoring but probably a little below average as a rebounder. His numbers against SA are actually pretty impressive considering out of all the teams listed they are by far the best interior defensive team year in and year out, and have been for the entirety of Gooden's career. At the same time, he's looked a lot better from our perspective than he has from that of the Rockets, Lakers or Celts.



This analysis certainly isn't intended to be the last word. There are other factors in play here of course. The main factor being that up to this point in his career Gooden has almost always been a secondary scorer on offense and usually the main post scorer for his teams and thus the top priority in the paint for opposing defenses. Defenses won't be able to focus on Gooden to the degree they have in the past now that he's on the Spurs, especially in the paint. He's going to find this situation on the Spurs easier than any other in his career up this point as far as opposing defenses go.

Overall I'd say he's going to be a huge help against the Hornets, at least according to this analysis, and since they have almost as much to do with our defeat by LA last year as the Lakers themselves do I'd say that's a very important contribution.

In any series with the Lakers themselves though, Gooden doesn't appear to be the type of guy that will get us over the hump.

[MaNu4Tres]

i

[Slydragon]

Damn, nice post

[Danny.Zhu]

Good analysis.

[Slydragon]

Damn, nice post

+1 :tu


I read it again.

[m33p0]

Defenses won't be able to focus on Gooden to the degree they have in the past now that he's on the Spurs, especially in the paint. He's going to find this situation on the Spurs easier than any other in his career up this point as far as opposing defenses go.
this will prove to be important if he can move well without the ball opposite duncan.

[raspsa]

this will prove to be important if he can move well without the ball opposite duncan.

I agree. that's where the cliche " he makes others around him better" comes into play referring in particular to Duncan. If he and Gooden hit it off well together, then I don't see why Gooden can't realize more of his potential and exceed his previous performances.

[kace]

great post and research ! :toast

but, as you said, Gooden playing with the spurs could be a completely different thing that what he has done before. To play with Tim could really change how you play.

we'll see.

[spurspokesman]

This is something I usually look up when forming an opinion on whether or not a player will be a good pick up and increase our changes of winning a title.

Pretty much the first thing I do when ever we get a new player is go look at their career splits VS LA to see if they are any kind of a Laker Killer since that is the team that has eliminated the Spurs 4 out of the 5 times they've been eliminated in the championship era. Usually these splits against LA are not impressive and if they are it's generally a good reason to be excited. Laker Killers are hard to come by, especially bigmen Laker Killers.

The way I figure it we've got about 5 teams we need to be worried about in addition to the Lakers. The Hornets(because of last year), Celtics, Cavs, Rockets and Nuggets also figure to give the Spurs a pretty good challenge should we meet them in the post season.

In the case of Drew Gooden the guy's talent is unquestionable, but talent isn't enough to make a contribution to the Spurs' ambitions.

So let's see what Drew's got to offer against our biggest challengers. Let's see if he's got x-factor potential against any of them.

First of all, here are his career averages in the 3 main categories of interest:

PPG: 12.1
FG%: 47%
RBG: 8.0


Now let's compare those numbers to the splits VS the 6 teams expected to be our toughest competition and see where they rank in comparison to his totals against other teams.

1. New Orleans

Games: 13
PPG: 11.9 18th
FG: 48.4% 11th
RBG: 9.7 2nd :smokin

His rebounding and FG% totals against the Hornets are better than his career averages and his PPG total is only .3 under his career average. All in all it looks pretty promising that he'll do well against the Hornets. Those are good numbers.

Rankwise he's a little under average offensively but that is offset by the fact that he rebounds extremely well against them. Since rebounding is the main reason he was signed it definitely appears he'll have something to contibute against the Hornets.


2. Denver

Games: 13
PPG: 12.7 13th
FG%: 42.6 24th
RBG: 8.7 8th

Again he puts up some nice rebounding totals that are over his career average. His PPG total is also over his career average but since it is accompanied by one of his worst shooting percentages against any team it's not that really that much of a plus.

Since he was mainly signed for his rebounding and it appears he does that well against the Nuggets, traditionally, he should be a positive against them.


3. Houston

Games: 13
PPG: 9.7 28th
FG%: 40.2 30th :depressed
RBG: 6.4 29th

Uhg. All 3 numbers are well below his career averages and his numbers rank dead last or close to it against them in the two most important categories. Based on those numbers I'd say he's not going to help a whole lot against the Rockets as they are pretty much the team he plays the worst against. Still, the Rockets have been good defensive team more or less over the course of Gooden's entire career up until this point so I'd hardly say those results are surprising or unusual among most bigmen in the NBA.


4. Cleveland

Games: 8
PPG: 10.6 25th
FG%: 41.6% 27th
RBG: 8.9 6th

That's a pretty small sample of games played against the Cavs but it doesn't look like he's shot the ball particularly well against them. Not surprising since the Cavs have been a great defensive team in recent years and probably half of those games have come against them since he was traded for Ben Wallace. His rebounding however is very nice and given that any matchup with the Cavs will likely be a defensive struggle in the NBA finals I'd say he definitely has something to offer against his old team. That's in addition to any inside knowledge he may have about them as a former Cavs player.


5. LA

Games: 13
PPG: 8.9 30th
FG%: 41.7 26th
RBG: 6.9 27th

Sigh. This is the main reason I wasn't that excited over the idea of Gooden signing with the Spurs. To be fair none of the other bigs on our roster have very good numbers against LA but it would have been nice to see some here. Compared to our other bigs he might have good numbers relatively speaking but there's still nothing here to indicate he's going to be a positive against LA. No x-factor here based on these numbers and he'll be doing good to play at an average level against them.


6. Boston

Games: 21
PPG: 11.1 23rd
FG%: 48.2 12th
RBG: 6.7 28th

Sort of a mixed bag here. His rebounding against the Celtics has been below average but his shooting PCT has been pretty decent. I'm also not sure how much stock to place in these numbers, inspite of the largest sample size, due to the fact that Boston was remade last year from just about the worst team in the NBA into the best. I do think his shooting PCT has some merit though as not a lot has changed defensively inside for the Celtics. Yes they are better with Garnett but Gooden is not the type of player Garnett does a real good job of shutting down, and Perkins has been defending the paint in Boston for a few yers now. Overall I'd say he's not going to be much of an x-factor against Boston.



Just for kicks let's see what he looks like against the Spurs to find out if we've been seeing him at his best, or as he typically plays.

Reason?

Well for example, Rasho's career best numbers were against the Spurs and that's part of the reason the Spurs went after him when he became a FA.


San Antonio

PPG: 12.9 7th
FG%: 46.1% 18th
RBG: 7.5 21st

We've seen him at close to his best in terms of scoring but probably a little below average as a rebounder. His numbers against SA are actually pretty impressive considering out of all the teams listed they are by far the best interior defensive team year in and year out, and have been for the entirety of Gooden's career. At the same time, he's looked a lot better from our perspective than he has from that of the Rockets, Lakers or Celts.



This analysis certainly isn't intended to be the last word. There are other factors in play here of course. The main factor being that up to this point in his career Gooden has almost always been a secondary scorer on offense and usually the main post scorer for his teams and thus the top priority in the paint for opposing defenses. Defenses won't be able to focus on Gooden to the degree they have in the past now that he's on the Spurs, especially in the paint. He's going to find this situation on the Spurs easier than any other in his career up this point as far as opposing defenses go.

Overall I'd say he's going to be a huge help against the Hornets, at least according to this analysis, and since they have almost as much to do with our defeat by LA last year as the Lakers themselves do I'd say that's a very important contribution.

In any series with the Lakers themselves though, Gooden doesn't appear to be the type of guy that will get us over the hump.

I agree. But lets also consider he was asked to do more with less around him(Chicago , Sacramento). Like I said in my previous post he will be most likely coming in with the second and will be able to put up bigger numbers. Let's face it whott although the lakers are very good, the one thing that can be said is they dont respond well to being punched in the mouth and we will be able to bang more with drew and put more pressure on them on the glass( something we got murdered in last year.). But we play them thursday so we can further assess him if he plays. Good post though.

[sonic21]

nice read :tu

[Spursmania]

Nice analysis. Good morning read.

I do believe if Gooden and Timmy work well together, he might exceed our expectations. I mean playing along side Timmy is a great chance for Gooden to show us what he's got.

[TampaDude]

Gooden is another banger, which we desperately need...if he stays healthy and doesn't make too many boneheaded mistakes, he will be a valuable asset in the playoffs.

2009...odd year...do the math...GO SPURS GO!!!!! :flag:

[timaios]

Utah Jazz ?
Besides the Lakers, when healthy it's the most dangerous team in the West.

[raspsa]

The consensus on Gooden seems to be that he has underacheved so far in his career. He never experienced a breakout year. Its hard to develop consistency in one's game when a player has to constantly learn a new system. Maybe SA could be the stable home that he's been searching for and he thrives with the Spurs.

[it's me]

San Antonio

PPG: 12.9 7th
FG%: 46.1% 18th
RBG: 7.5 21st

We've seen him at close to his best in terms of scoring but probably a little below average as a rebounder. His numbers against SA are actually pretty impressive considering out of all the teams listed they are by far the best interior defensive team year in and year out, and have been for the entirety of Gooden's career. At the same time, he's looked a lot better from our perspective than he has from that of the Rockets, Lakers or Celts.

.

Great post....

don't forget LA wanted this guy too... I think it was a good move just to keep him away from LA, even if he doesn't put good numbers against them.

[polandprzem]

Hey he faced different teams.

It's not like NO is the same team as it was 4 years ago, same with other teams.

And Gooden played a different role in a different teams and systems.

[balli]

Utah Jazz ?

I'm not sure what he normally averages against the Jazz, but he played well against us earlier this year. Only twenty points or so, but I remember getting pissed off that game because Gooden was playing efficiently.

That said, Millsap and Okur had huge games that night too, but I don't think you guys necessarily brought Gooden in for his defensive prowess.

[urunobili]

This is the kind of thread I am talking about! :toast

[exstatic]

Utah Jazz ?
Besides the Lakers, when healthy it's the most dangerous team in the West.

Utah's interior defense is porous. They're also pretty far down the list for FG% defense. They are a good basketball team but not a great one, as evidenced by Boozer making Oberto look like a fucking All Star center in '07. I think the only top half team that would be in danger to them in the first round would be Denver. They might take one or at most two games from anyone else.

[Marcus Bryant]

Thanks for putting that together. The first reaction is that while his #s haven't been that great against certain teams, what are the averages for the mighty Bonner/Oberto tandem?

7 boards a night against LA would be quite welcome.

Second reaction, of course, is that Gooden hasn't played with a post player like TD on offense in his NBA career.

[balli]

evidenced by Boozer making Oberto look like a fucking All Star center in '07.
This is true. :depressed


I think the only top half team that would be in danger to them in the first round would be Denver. They might take one or at most two games from anyone else.
But we're a better team than Denver. I don't know if you saw us carve them to pieces last night, but yeah, outside of LA and SA, when healthy, we're the best team in the West. Porous defense be damned.

[peacemaker885]

Let's face it whott although the lakers are very good, the one thing that can be said is they dont respond well to being punched in the mouth and we will be able to bang more with drew and put more pressure on them on the glass( something we got murdered in last year.). But we play them thursday so we can further assess him if he plays. Good post though.

This may be true with Gasol, and others. I don't think this is applicable with Kobe. He plays better when he's pissed off, unfortunately.

[duncan228]

Thanks for the great read whottt.

My main concerns for Gooden are like most here, rebounding and what his defense is going to look like. Numbers never tell the whole story, but there seems to be a foundation to build on.

Appreciate the effort to put it together for us.

[Thomas82]

Thanks for the great read whottt.

My main concerns for Gooden are like most here, rebounding and what his defense is going to look like. Numbers never tell the whole story, but there seems to be a foundation to build on.

Appreciate the effort to put it together for us.

I honestly believe that playing in the Spurs system and with Tim Duncan, that Drew Gooden's defense will improve dramatically. I don't think he's anywhere close to his ceiling.

[weebo]

Adding Gooden gives the Spurs much more front court depth to throw at the Lakers.

The Lakers frontcourt although good I think is often over hyped. Has Bynum ever been in the POs? Odom has been known to fold like a lawn chair in big games and Gasol has been Timmy's bitch before.

This was probably the best move the Spurs could make outside of adding Camby.

[exstatic]

My guess is that Pop runs Drew with the reserves for the most part. That gives you one paint scorer and one shooter big man for both the starting unit and the reserves, Duncan/Bonner and Gooden/Thomas. That also makes our reserve bigs probably one of the best bench rebounding tandems in the league. We've been lacking any kind of post scoring off the bench for forever, and playing against reserves for a chunk of the game should boost Drew's effectiveness. He'll be sort of the big man's version of Manu's bench burst.

[mogrovejo]

Good work, but aren't those samples too large? Teams change a lot.

Anyway, Gooden had an awesome game for Cle vs. Boston last season. Probably one of the best games of his career, he completely abused us. It was the first of the season, they won in the OT.

[Interrohater]

My guess is that Pop runs Drew with the reserves for the most part. That gives you one paint scorer and one shooter big man for both the starting unit and the reserves, Duncan/Bonner and Gooden/Thomas. That also makes our reserve bigs probably one of the best bench rebounding tandems in the league. We've been lacking any kind of post scoring off the bench for forever, and playing against reserves for a chunk of the game should boost Drew's effectiveness. He'll be sort of the big man's version of Manu's bench burst.
+1 :tu
good point

[Marcus Bryant]

My guess is that Pop runs Drew with the reserves for the most part. That gives you one paint scorer and one shooter big man for both the starting unit and the reserves, Duncan/Bonner and Gooden/Thomas. That also makes our reserve bigs probably one of the best bench rebounding tandems in the league. We've been lacking any kind of post scoring off the bench for forever, and playing against reserves for a chunk of the game should boost Drew's effectiveness. He'll be sort of the big man's version of Manu's bench burst.

Right, plus it's a lesser disruption in the rotation instead of changing the starting lineup.

And while I don't necessarily think Bonner's feelings would be hurt, but he seems quite comfortable in his role. Of course, if he starts to decline and/or Gooden comes in and tears it up then a change may be warranted.

[HarlemHeat37]

I appreciate the time you took, but those aren't the same rosters that he faced every time, so it doesn't really make a difference..

[Mr Bones]

A rebounding stat: Gooden averages 14.2 rebounds per 40 minutes this season.

Bonner averages 9.8 rebounds per 40. That's a difference of 4.4 rebounds per 40 minutes between the two players.

To put that in perspective, the distance between Gooden and Bonner is larger than the distance between Bonner and TJ Ford or Mike Conley, both of whom play point guard and average 5.6 rebounds per 40 minutes.

The simple fact is that Gooden is a very good rebounder. And even if his numbers go down 10% or even 20% against a good team, he is still better at rebounding the ball than anyone on the Spurs not named Tim Duncan.

[lefty]

Those numbers vs San Antonio are pretty good, considering he went against the great Tim Duncan !!!!!

[Marcus Bryant]

I appreciate the time you took, but those aren't the same rosters that he faced every time, so it doesn't really make a difference..

It's not a bad proxy. I guess if you could sort out the last couple of seasons it would make it slightly better, though your MOE would increase.

[Mr Bones]

In two games versus Houston this year, these are the average rebounds per game for San Antonio's bigs:

Duncan: 7 rpg
Bonner: 3.5 rpg
Thomas: 3.5 rpg
Oberto: 2.5 rpg

Gooden hasn't played against Houston this year, but in his two games against them last year, he averaged 7.5 rpg.

[whottt]

I appreciate the time you took, but those aren't the same rosters that he faced every time, so it doesn't really make a difference..

I'm glad you appreciate the time I took, I just wish you understood the purpose of the analysis.


It I'd wanted to see how he had done against a specific roster, I'd just have analyzed the splits for those years against those teams.

If I'd wanted to see how he's done against the teams as they are currently constructed I'd have analyzed his splits against those teams over the course of them having their current rosters.

That wasn't what I was trying to do.


The purpose of this analysis was to see if there's any of these teams he seems to get up for and play well against in certain aspects...because of the team itself, not it's roster. IOW, I wanted to see if he was a slayer of any of these teams, just because of the logo on their jersey. And I can only do that by analyzing his career splits against them.


Additionally, you are right that these rosters have changed but if you are high on Gooden and attempting to use your statement to his benefit...you did just the opposite.

You see you're right that these teams have rosters that change every year, but beyond all doubt they are all very good teams now, which is why I chose them. And what the fact that they are all good now means is that at the individual level Gooden's numbers are less likely to be as good as against them now, in every case. Yes he plays for a better team now, yes he is also isn't going to get the minutes or the shots that he has in the past because of it.

And finally...these teams have been pretty much the same for most of Gooden's career. Most of them have had the same coaches, schemes and central stars for just about all of his career...so even your initial criticism isn't really that accurate and is somewhat of an oversimplification.

So you see...your analysis of my analysis doesn't really make a difference.

[whottt]

Concerning Duncan and his ability to improve Gooden's game...

#1. It's not just Duncan, there's also Parker and Manu. Gooden has never played on a team that has both dominant perimter and interior scorers...so Duncan isn't the only reason he stands to have a significantly easier time of things when it comes to opposing defenses. I mean I guess you could say Cleveland was pretty balanced but really they were LeBron and no on else and Gooden was probably the second best player on that team.

Without a doubt this is the best team he's ever played for and he isn't going to receive near as much defensive focus as he has in the past.

The flipside of that is that IMO, he's also not going to get the minutes, shots, or loose balls that he has in the past either. I'm in the minority on this but I don't think playing alongside Tim Duncan has ever improved anyone's defensive rebounding numbers significantly...and that's a tribute to Duncan, he doesn't miss many gettable balls.



In any case...what I get out of this is that our fate against LA is still likely to rest more in the hands of Matt Bonner than Drew Gooden.

LA packs the paint against us and forces TO's when we aren't hitting ourside shots...I don't see Gooden helping in that aspect at all, if anything he's going to clog the area around Duncan even more based on his poor shooting against them.


Bonner OTOH, if he can stroke some shots against them not only will make it tougher for them to double team, he will pull a BIG BODY out of the paint and increase our chances of getting offensive rebounds as well as penetrating their defense without turning it over.

I'm not worried about Gooden's subpar numbers against Houston...because Bonner matches up very well against them..

But the point of all this is that I definitely don't see Gooden as having much impact on our team against the Lakers even if he does play well. It's still going to be Matt Bonner that pretty much makes or breaks that series as far as bigmen role players go...and Matt Bonner hasn't proven that he has the ability to do that against them.

Since LA is our kryptonite as far as titles are concerned...it's relevant, and this Gooden move doesn't appear to have increased our odds of beating them.

[DPG21920]

Whott the f*ck is going on in here?

[baseline bum]

LA's had a pretty porous defense since they blew the team up 5 years ago, so hit FG PCT vs them in a bit of a letdown. I can't see the use of playing him with Duncan; Bonner fits in much better with Duncan in the game. I think Bonner would be lost without the wide-open looks Tim gets him. I think Gooden's best use would be playing with the second unit, taking shots from Kurt and Fab as opposed to competing with Tim for shots.

[024]

i think these numbers should only include the past two years. because that's when boston acquired garnett and allen. it's also when lakers got gasol and bynum started to play well. and of course, cavs acquisition of ben wallace and other guards. these numbers may be better or worse depending on previous matchups.

against the lakers in the playoffs, i think thomas will inevitably start if he keeps playing at his current defensive level. unless gooden plays defense as well as thomas, he will be put in when only gasol or bynum is on the floor. to compensate for bonner's offense and probably bowen's move to the starting position again, ginobili will also have to start. that gives spurs a bench (in order of likely subs) of mason/finley/gooden/bonner. oberto and hill will probably see limited minutes at best.

[Quasar]

Instead of a large sample size, it may be best to see how he fared against the teams for 2008 only - that would give you a better idea as the rosters changed significantly for several of the teams.

Great read though!

[whottt]

Well like I said, I wasn't really trying to figure out individual matchups with the current rosters. I was primarily trying to see if the name on the front of the jersey brought out anything extra in him...I mean there are people that will have more motivation because of the name on the jersey and people that wil butt clench over it. Our shooters have a history of buttclenching when open the second they see a purple and gold jersey in front of them and Jack Nicholson sitting on the sidelines.


I could look up the splits over the past 2 years against LA and Boston, but since those two teams are much better as of the last two years and his numbers aren't particularly impressive against them from a career standpoint, and the fact that he has played for a struggling Bulls team over much of the past 2 years and was arguably it's best interior threat and focus for opposing defenses...I probably wouldn't like what I would find.


Like I said...he'll have an easier time of it, but there is nothing in his career performance to indicate he has additional motivation when facing elite/legendary teams like some players do, in all sports. I mean there is something extra at play when you see the name Yankees or Cowboys, or Lakers or Celtics on the front of the jersey for some players...some players play better because of that and some play worse. It's nost just some hair brained theory either...you look at the Spurs shooters over the past 9 years and they have been left open against LA probably more than any other team and yet they have shot worse...and it's got everything to do with the name on the front of the jersey...and Jack sitting on the sideline.

What this was was an analysis of statistical data to determine potential intangible factors with Gooden in our matchup with these teams(really the Lakers)....not a straight statistical analysis. It's easy enough to do a straight statistical analysis with a couple of clicks and I wouldn't have thought that worth the effort as most people on the forum can and do do that themselves.

[polandprzem]

:lmao @ whottt's explanation about player who plays better or worse against logos

[whottt]

:lmao @ whottt's explanation about player who plays better or worse against logos

Anyone can click on the splits and see how he did against them last year or 2 years ago...that doesn't require a post.


BTW, if I ever want to use basketball stats to determine which players are on steroids...you'll be the first guy I call.

[ILoveOranges]

:lmao @ whottt's explanation about player who plays better or worse against logos

Whotts making a good point, I'm not sure what's so funny about it. I remember a discussion about the Milwaukee Bucks having a winning record against San Antonio. For whatever reason, the Bucks seem to play better against the Spurs, and San Antonio's players worse against the Bucks'. Maybe it's their style of play, or the way they play defense. But the certain way they do things gives the Spurs trouble. That's pretty much what he was trying to get across. No need to be a dick.

[polandprzem]

As far as I know players play against players not against logos.

Whottt is making a point, but IMO (if I can have one), that's a bad point to look at a player. Esp. when you look at his stats.

For some reason I do not buy his numbers againts logos.
Why?
Because, example - championship Lakers with Shaq, Kobe, Jax etc. are in the same column with LA team with Kobe and Tomjanovich.

And that's just made me laugh.

btw. no need to jump all over me because of it.

[polandprzem]

Anyone can click on the splits and see how he did against them last year or 2 years ago...that doesn't require a post.


BTW, if I ever want to use basketball stats to determine which players are on steroids...you'll be the first guy I call.

You've got my cell phone number?

[timvp]

Damn, great post and very good thread. whottt pulled the internet version of a David Robinson tomahawk slam :smokin

I'm going to do some digging now to see if I can add to this thread :tu

[Mr Bones]

But the point of all this is that I definitely don't see Gooden as having much impact on our team against the Lakers even if he does play welll.



Well like I said, I wasn't really trying to figure out individual matchups with the current rosters. I was primarily trying to see if the name on the front of the jersey brought out anything extra in him...I mean there are people that will have more motivation because of the name on the jersey and people that wil butt clench over it. Our shooters have a history of buttclenching when open the second they see a purple and gold jersey in front of them and Jack Nicholson sitting on the sidelines.


You are directly contradicting yourself in these two different posts. On the one hand, you say you're checking out the stats to see if he has a history of performing well against a certain team. But, on the other hand, you give the opinion that even if he does play well against the Lakers, it won't matter... It seems like you just don't like Gooden, and have tried to find a way to justify your dislike of him. If your opinion is that he isn't going to help against the Lakers, regardless of whether his play is good or bad (which by itself doesn't add up at all), what's the point of even looking at the stats?

[whottt]

You are directly contradicting yourself in these two different posts. On the one hand, you say you're checking out the stats to see if he has a history of performing well against a certain team. But, on the other hand, you give the opinion that even if he does play well against the Lakers, it won't matter... It seems like you just don't like Gooden, and have tried to find a way to justify your dislike of him. If your opinion is that he isn't going to help against the Lakers, regardless of whether his play is good or bad (which by itself doesn't add up at all), what's the point of even looking at the stats?

I don't like Gooden but I wouldn't have gone to all this trouble just to say I don't like him...I already said that several times.

But believe me...I dislike losing to LA more than anything else that can happen on a NBA court...and so I'm not going to let my personal dislike of a player get in the way of that.

My opinion is pretty consistent...I don't think he's going to be much of a factor against LA directly, even if he does play well, and so I'd have rather us have gone after someone who would...

That said, part of the reason we lost to LA was that the Hornets beat the crap out of us and we had nothing left for LA...and Gooden has a history of player extremely well against the Hornets...so he could help in that area.

And yes I really don't think he can be the difference directly against LA...LA is all about our 3 shooting, and since Gooden doesn't do that and Bonner does, I think Bonner can be more of a difference maker in that series than Gooden.

If he hits his threes LA's won't be able to clog the paint on us, more importantly, he can pull one of their bigs out to the perimeter totally putting a chink in their defensive armor...it's really just that simple.

[Silverheart80]

Nice work on the original post, whott. Much appreciated. :toast

[whottt]

As far as I know players play against players not against logos.

Whottt is making a point, but IMO (if I can have one), that's a bad point to look at a player. Esp. when you look at his stats.

For some reason I do not buy his numbers againts logos.
Why?
Because, example - championship Lakers with Shaq, Kobe, Jax etc. are in the same column with LA team with Kobe and Tomjanovich.

And that's just made me laugh.

btw. no need to jump all over me because of it.



Yeah....spoken like someone who has never seen the Spurs shooters going into the tank against LA. LA has never defended the three well, and they really don't do it well now...yet our 3 shooting always fails us against them..and it's because our shooters press because of who they are and where they play.


Man it's like you never watched Steve Smith go completely into the tank against LA in 02...you know, the year he lead the NBA in 3 point shooting.

Hedo was similar...Hedo played great against the Griz..and he completely choked against LA...left wide open.

The name on the jersey matters to some players, to some teams.

If Poland ever won anything in team sports you'd have a better grasp of what I'm saying.

[timvp]

Though Drew Gooden has always had good stats, I want to see how his presence on the court actually affects his team's play. To do so, I'm going to look at offense and defense per 100 possessions, effective fg% allowed and rebounding. Each of these stats compare how the team plays with him on the court to how they play with him off the court.


2009 Offense: per 100 Poss. 104.2 109.5 -5.3
Defense: per 100 Poss. 109.2 109.6 -0.4
Effective FG% Allowed 48.80% 48.80% 0.00%
Total Rebounding 49.70% 49.80% -0.10%

2008 Offense: per 100 Poss. 106.9 107.4 -0.5
Defense: per 100 Poss. 108.4 106.9 1.5
Effective FG% Allowed 50.90% 48.40% 2.50%
Total Rebounding 52.80% 52.70% 0.00%

2007 Offense: per 100 Poss. 106 107.6 -1.5
Defense: per 100 Poss. 105.6 99.2 6.4
Effective FG% Allowed 49.30% 46.30% 2.90%
Total Rebounding 52.00% 52.80% -0.70%

2006 Offense: per 100 Poss. 107.5 110.9 -3.5
Defense: per 100 Poss. 107.1 106.3 0.7
Effective FG% Allowed 49.50% 48.60% 0.90%
Total Rebounding 52.30% 50.50% 1.70%

Those are the numbers over the last four years. The numbers or somewhat consistent ... and not in a good way. He tends to hurt his team's offense while also hurting his team's defense. Rebounding-wise, he hasn't made his team very much better ... even though his individual stats are impressive.

Here are the same numbers for the 2007 playoffs:


2007 Offense: Pts per 100 Poss. 104 104 0.1
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss. 102.9 96.8 6
Effective FG% Allowed 46.80% 45.60% 1.20%
Total Rebounding 52.00% 53.30% -1.30%

Again, pretty much right in line.

However, it should be mentioned that the Cavs have had some quality players to back him up with. Varejao has been his main backup and he's one of the best backup bigs in the league. So while it's concerning that he consistently hasn't made his teams better on either side of the ball or rebounding-wise, you have to put it in the right context.

Next I'm going to look at his shooting percentage on outside jumpers and the percentage of his shots that are jumpers:


2009 Jump 66% 0.412
2008 Jump 58% 0.35
2007 Jump 58% 0.408
2006 Jump 44% 0.421

The number of jumpers he's taken has increased through the years and his shooting has been somewhat steady other than last year.

Let's look at how he compares to TD, Thomas and Oberto to get an idea if Gooden is similar:


Duncan Jump 58% 0.437
Thomas Jump 72% 0.458
Oberto Jump 43% 0.389

Shooting-wise, Gooden fits in somewhere between Thomas and Oberto. He's a better shooter than Oberto but not at Thomas' level. The fact that the percentage of his shots that are jumpers is similar to Thomas is a good sign that Duncan and Gooden could play well together due to the spacing.

The last stat I want to look at is Gooden's clutch shooting percentage from the perimeter. Can he spread the floor enough to be on the court during the clutch?


2009 2-for-7 28.6%
2008 1-for-8 12.5%
2007 1-for-12 8.3%
2006 1-for-7 14.3%

Wow. It's safe to say Gooden should be kept as far away from the court as possible come clutch time. Five jumpers in the last four years? On 34 attempts? For a guy who otherwise shoots better than 40% on jumpers? Holy crap.





Conclusion

I was hoping to be surprised but the numbers tell me Gooden is exactly the type of player I thought he was. He's a player who can get stats but he doesn't make a huge impact on winning or losing and is utterly useless in the clutch.

That said, I like the idea of using him like Nazr Mohammed. Eventually move him into the starting lineup. Let him bang against the other team's best interior scorer. Let his scoring and rebound lighten the load on the Big Three. Hope he has a few minutes here and there where he shines. Sit him on the bench when it gets tight at the end of the fourth.

If properly used by Pop and if Gooden is extra motivated and attentive (for whatever motives), he can help. Let's just hope that Gooden can have a Nazr-in-2005 type run and that Pop both gives him a chance and knows what he's doing with him.

[polandprzem]

Yeah....spoken like someone who has never seen the Spurs shooters going into the tank against LA. LA has never defended the three well, and they really don't do it well now...yet our 3 shooting always fails us against them..and it's because our shooters press because of who they are and where they play.


Man it's like you never watched Steve Smith go completely into the tank against LA in 02...you know, the year he lead the NBA in 3 point shooting.

Hedo was similar...Hedo played great against the Griz..and he completely choked against LA...left wide open.

The name on the jersey matters to some players, to some teams.

If Poland ever won anything in team sports you'd have a better grasp of what I'm saying.
This last sentence is as good as your theory.


btw. all what you want to proof is a minority as long as stats won't tell the truth, and as long as Hedo was hot againts Grizzlies one year that same year he choked in the playoffs against LA team.
Players got their days, players like to play against one systems and do not like to play againt other ones. They are also in the ams system as well. What's more the role of a player is changing, guys he play with.

And you are acting like an ass just because somebody does not buy you theory of a player stats who is playing against black or white or yellow or green socks or underwear.

Jeez

[Mr Bones]

Cool. I don't agree with your post, but I'd rather disagree with an informed fan than agree with an uninformed one any day.

One stat that of Gooden's that I find interesting is Free Throws. He is 86-99 this year, shooting 86.9%. The entire front line, outside of Duncan, looks like this in terms of Free Throws:

Thomas, 27-32
Oberto, 15-27
Bonner, 10-15

So Gooden has taken and made more free throws than Thomas, Oberto, and Bonner combined. In fact, he has made more free throws than Thomas, Oberto, Bonner, Bowen, and Udoka combined.

I want to be clear here-- I'm not bashing Bonner. I like Bonner, and even think he should keep his starting position, but IMO, Gooden's strengths are for the most part Bonner's weaknesses, so I think they'll make a good tandem, whether they are substituting for one another, or playing at the same time in limited minutes. I'd sure rather see Gooden in there over any smallball line-up that has Finley or Udoka at PF.

For me, if Gooden helps to gets Pau, KG, or any other significant opposing Big in foul trouble in just one playoff game, he will have earned the tiny amount of money that the Spurs are paying him.

[urunobili]

You can put whatever stats you want... Gooden is the Gasol stopper guys... :wakeup

[ducks]

gooden never had a big like duncan
other teams will make gooden beat them on boards not gooden

[Slippy]

Spurs fans will get to see first hand, Gooden's love affair with the jumpshot. Hopefully more of the high percentage open jumpshot kind and less of the fadeaway hand in face variety. Might be different this time around with the Spurs. Goodens motivations and Pop playing their part. yes we can only hope he adopts.

[whottt]

If Poland ever won anything in team sports you'd have a better grasp of what I'm saying.


This last sentence is as good as your theory.

I know it is...you know why? Take out the words Poland and replace them with the words USA and you don't get offended by that comment...

Now I want you to tell me again that the name on the front of the jersey isn't important. :smokin

Look it's just a fact...you walk into the Staples Center and see their 14 NBA title banners hanging down and the pressure you feel increases just a tad.

The pre-emininent pro franchises in America all have this mystique working to their benefit. Sure it doesn't effect all players or all teams...but sometimes it does...sometimes it makes players play better, some times it make them play worse.

And it's not always about mystique, sometimes it's about a guys hometown team...or a divisional rival but these things are factors in sports, and often they decide who wins. The Spurs shooters have a clear history of buttclenching against LA...there are no two ways about it.

And for you to say the name on the jersey means nothing is just so out of touch with what the Spurs feel themselves that I am dumbfounded...

Because I promise you beating LA in the playoffs means just about more to them than beating any other team. You don't think Duncan and Pop are sicking of the Lakers having their number? I assure they are. And players are no different in their motivations...teamns are no different.


In 1989, the Dallas Cowboys won 1 game the entire season. They were by far the worst team in the NFL that year...the team they beat on the road was a superior team who made the playoffs that year..and would win the Superbowl the very next year. That team was their top rival the Washington Redskins.

A couple of years ago we watched Don Nelson dismantle his old team in the playoffs with a far inferior team and it was all about revenge, and his players feeling they had a chance of beating that team because it was his old team.


Saying that the name on the front of the jersey doesn't matter is like saying the Yankees and Redsox is just another baseball game...

[Mr Bones]

Here are some Roland ratings from 82games.com:

Roger Mason
06-07', -8.7
07-'08, -0.4
08-'09, -3.0

Bruce Bowen
08-'09, -6.1

Oberto
08-'09, -6.5

Gooden
06-'07, -1.3
07-'08, -3.6
08-'09, -6.2

[polandprzem]

And now you talking about exeptions and psychology in sports. That's something different, that's another aspect. Big rivalries etc.

I know what matters in sports.


You put his stats in diferent envoirments both sides. His team and team he is playing. That is really not telling you any story. And I really do not have much time talking to you about this aspect. One thing I'm not at home 2nd is that opic is meaningless like the stats you put there.

Hey before KG went to Boston and after Bird retired you went to their town for an easy win or a loss?
U know - they won the most in NBA.


* - about Poland comment. I do not feel offended lol
Your knowledge about Poland winning in team sports is NONE, that made me smirk.

[Spurs Brazil]

That said, I like the idea of using him like Nazr Mohammed. Eventually move him into the starting lineup. Let him bang against the other team's best interior scorer. Let his scoring and rebound lighten the load on the Big Three. Hope he has a few minutes here and there where he shines. Sit him on the bench when it gets tight at the end of the fourth.

I agree with that but who do you think should finish games with TD?

I'd like to see TP, Manu, Mason, TD and Thomas finishing games in the playoffs

[polandprzem]

btw. You need to have a reason to have an extra motivation against certain opponent.

[timvp]

I agree with that but who do you think should finish games with TD?

I'd like to see TP, Manu, Mason, TD and Thomas finishing games in the playoffsIt's scary but I think Bonner has to finish games and not KT. Bonner isn't clutch either but the floor must be spread to give the Big Three room. KT can spread the floor somewhat but he doesn't spread it enough late in games. All teams will do is make it so KT shoots a long two each time up the court ... and they'll be perfectly happy living with that. An open Bonner three? That is a much more dangerous shot.

Even after the Gooden signing, I still think Bonner will be the second most important big in the playoffs. Gooden could very well stuff the stat sheet but if Pop is smart, he'll chain him to the bench following the third quarter buzzer.

[whottt]

It's scary but I think Bonner has to finish games and not KT. Bonner isn't clutch either but the floor must be spread to give the Big Three room. KT can spread the floor somewhat but he doesn't spread it enough late in games. All teams will do is make it so KT shoots a long two each time up the court ... and they'll be perfectly happy living with that. An open Bonner three? That is a much more dangerous shot.

Even after the Gooden signing, I still think Bonner will be the second most important big in the playoffs. Gooden could very well stuff the stat sheet but if Pop is smart, he'll chain him to the bench following the third quarter buzzer.

Yeah that was a damn good clutch analysis of Gooden and I am impressed :lol.

It really is pick our poison...and I agree the best option is if Bonner can grit down and knock down enough shots to where teams don't dare him to beat them...especially against LA.

Gooden's lack of clutchness also instantly explains why he's been given up on so easily....teams won't usually give up on a talented bonehead if he can hit some big shots for them...but being a bonehead and choking? Those are the talented guys that wind up traded often....no one likes to think their teamate is going to fold under pressure.


One thing I do know...if make it the finals the Celts damn sure aren't going to double off Bonner after the way he tore them a new one. He needs at least one game like that against LA before this season is over.


Mason won't be left open against LA, Bruce won't be left open...Tim, Tony and Manu are more than any single LA defender can guard...so if Mason and Bonner can knock down their shots and eliminate any and all double teams...Duncan, Parker and Manu will feast on the exposed Laker interior.

Great point about KT too...teams are quite content to let him shoot that long 2 all day long...even the Spurs used to play him that way.

Too bad we can't put KT or Oberto's brain in Gooden's body.

[urunobili]

It's scary but I think Bonner has to finish games and not KT. Bonner isn't clutch either but the floor must be spread to give the Big Three room. KT can spread the floor somewhat but he doesn't spread it enough late in games. All teams will do is make it so KT shoots a long two each time up the court ... and they'll be perfectly happy living with that. An open Bonner three? That is a much more dangerous shot.

Even after the Gooden signing, I still think Bonner will be the second most important big in the playoffs. Gooden could very well stuff the stat sheet but if Pop is smart, he'll chain him to the bench following the third quarter buzzer.

Do you think Pop will juggle with him as he does with Fin and Bruce?

What i mean is.. if there's a time out or free throws... Bonner gets in for the offensive possession and KT for Bonner on the Defensive one?

Pop does this all the time with Bruce and Fin or Mason

[polandprzem]

By the way

If we could have some Gooden trends or knew his nemesis it would make a better view on what he is able o do against 'logos'

I remember one game in 1999 season spurs-phily, both bad teams and a malik rose who had his best game of life in NBA in his hometown.
But so what?

... maybe tomorrow I will go back to this

[whottt]

btw. You need to have a reason to have an extra motivation against certain opponent.

And simply the fact that they are the Lakers should be that reason. They are the marquee franchise since the merger...they are our nemesis, they are the defending conference champs and...

Oh yeah...Gooden's also from Oakland California, so he either grew up a Laker Fan or he grew up hating them as the top divisional rival to the Warriors.

Yet no discernible level of upping his play against them.

I see absolutely nothing based on his own history or the matchup between the teams to indicate he's going to be a positive against LA.

It's all about Bonner with LA. Best to keep him confident as much as possible.

[polandprzem]

I'll keep your words in mind

[Manufan909]

Though Drew Gooden has always had good stats, I want to see how his presence on the court actually affects his team's play. To do so, I'm going to look at offense and defense per 100 possessions, effective fg% allowed and rebounding. Each of these stats compare how the team plays with him on the court to how they play with him off the court.


2009 Offense: per 100 Poss. 104.2 109.5 -5.3
Defense: per 100 Poss. 109.2 109.6 -0.4
Effective FG% Allowed 48.80% 48.80% 0.00%
Total Rebounding 49.70% 49.80% -0.10%

2008 Offense: per 100 Poss. 106.9 107.4 -0.5
Defense: per 100 Poss. 108.4 106.9 1.5
Effective FG% Allowed 50.90% 48.40% 2.50%
Total Rebounding 52.80% 52.70% 0.00%

2007 Offense: per 100 Poss. 106 107.6 -1.5
Defense: per 100 Poss. 105.6 99.2 6.4
Effective FG% Allowed 49.30% 46.30% 2.90%
Total Rebounding 52.00% 52.80% -0.70%

2006 Offense: per 100 Poss. 107.5 110.9 -3.5
Defense: per 100 Poss. 107.1 106.3 0.7
Effective FG% Allowed 49.50% 48.60% 0.90%
Total Rebounding 52.30% 50.50% 1.70%

Those are the numbers over the last four years. The numbers or somewhat consistent ... and not in a good way. He tends to hurt his team's offense while also hurting his team's defense. Rebounding-wise, he hasn't made his team very much better ... even though his individual stats are impressive.

Here are the same numbers for the 2007 playoffs:


2007 Offense: Pts per 100 Poss. 104 104 0.1
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss. 102.9 96.8 6
Effective FG% Allowed 46.80% 45.60% 1.20%
Total Rebounding 52.00% 53.30% -1.30%

Again, pretty much right in line.

However, it should be mentioned that the Cavs have had some quality players to back him up with. Varejao has been his main backup and he's one of the best backup bigs in the league. So while it's concerning that he consistently hasn't made his teams better on either side of the ball or rebounding-wise, you have to put it in the right context.

Next I'm going to look at his shooting percentage on outside jumpers and the percentage of his shots that are jumpers:


2009 Jump 66% 0.412
2008 Jump 58% 0.35
2007 Jump 58% 0.408
2006 Jump 44% 0.421

The number of jumpers he's taken has increased through the years and his shooting has been somewhat steady other than last year.

Let's look at how he compares to TD, Thomas and Oberto to get an idea if Gooden is similar:


Duncan Jump 58% 0.437
Thomas Jump 72% 0.458
Oberto Jump 43% 0.389

Shooting-wise, Gooden fits in somewhere between Thomas and Oberto. He's a better shooter than Oberto but not at Thomas' level. The fact that the percentage of his shots that are jumpers is similar to Thomas is a good sign that Duncan and Gooden could play well together due to the spacing.

The last stat I want to look at is Gooden's clutch shooting percentage from the perimeter. Can he spread the floor enough to be on the court during the clutch?


2009 2-for-7 28.6%
2008 1-for-8 12.5%
2007 1-for-12 8.3%
2006 1-for-7 14.3%

Wow. It's safe to say Gooden should be kept as far away from the court as possible come clutch time. Five jumpers in the last four years? On 34 attempts? For a guy who otherwise shoots better than 40% on jumpers? Holy crap.





Conclusion

I was hoping to be surprised but the numbers tell me Gooden is exactly the type of player I thought he was. He's a player who can get stats but he doesn't make a huge impact on winning or losing and is utterly useless in the clutch.

That said, I like the idea of using him like Nazr Mohammed. Eventually move him into the starting lineup. Let him bang against the other team's best interior scorer. Let his scoring and rebound lighten the load on the Big Three. Hope he has a few minutes here and there where he shines. Sit him on the bench when it gets tight at the end of the fourth.

If properly used by Pop and if Gooden is extra motivated and attentive (for whatever motives), he can help. Let's just hope that Gooden can have a Nazr-in-2005 type run and that Pop both gives him a chance and knows what he's doing with him.

Damn timvp, you crushed all my hopes.:depressed Hope he can just board, dunk, draw fouls, and never be on the floor in clutch situations.

[kingsnation]

This is my first time posting here. As I'm sure you can tell - I am a Sacramento Kings fan. I love the NBA and basketball in general and I just wanted to know - How do you guys like Drew Gooden so far?

[Manufan909]

This is my first time posting here. As I'm sure you can tell - I am a Sacramento Kings fan. I love the NBA and basketball in general and I just wanted to know - How do you guys like Drew Gooden so far?

Dunno yet, he has hasn't even suited up for a game so far. Coach Pop is being conservative(like always with injured players), and gave him a week to heal his groin like 2 or 3 days ago. He could possibly play against LAL, but who knows? It's CIA Pop.:downspin:

[angelbelow]

thanks for the summary

[whottt]

Cool. I don't agree with your post, but I'd rather disagree with an informed fan than agree with an uninformed one any day.

One stat that of Gooden's that I find interesting is Free Throws. He is 86-99 this year, shooting 86.9%. The entire front line, outside of Duncan, looks like this in terms of Free Throws:

Thomas, 27-32
Oberto, 15-27
Bonner, 10-15

So Gooden has taken and made more free throws than Thomas, Oberto, and Bonner combined. In fact, he has made more free throws than Thomas, Oberto, Bonner, Bowen, and Udoka combined.

I want to be clear here-- I'm not bashing Bonner. I like Bonner, and even think he should keep his starting position, but IMO, Gooden's strengths are for the most part Bonner's weaknesses, so I think they'll make a good tandem, whether they are substituting for one another, or playing at the same time in limited minutes. I'd sure rather see Gooden in there over any smallball line-up that has Finley or Udoka at PF.

For me, if Gooden helps to gets Pau, KG, or any other significant opposing Big in foul trouble in just one playoff game, he will have earned the tiny amount of money that the Spurs are paying him.


That's a pretty good point. A player who gets to the line is extremely efficient and it's actually probably the most superior form of defense that there is...nothing stops a player like foul trouble putting them on the bench.

I should have included FTA in my original analysis and just forgot about doing it basically...it is at least as important as any of the other stats and it's also one of Gooden's strengths as a player. I'll go back and add FTA to the analysis and see if anything changes drastically about his x-factor potential.

Yeah....a lot of times a low FG% PCT will go hand in hand with high FTA so it is something that needs to be more closely examined, particularly against the teams that he has a low FG% against. The flipside of this is that Gooden is a great FT shooter so no one is going to be putting him on the line deliberately...for that reason I'll be surprised if his FTA produce any radical changes to my original post.

[TheManFromAcme]

I know it is...you know why? Take out the words Poland and replace them with the words USA and you don't get offended by that comment...

Now I want you to tell me again that the name on the front of the jersey isn't important. :smokin

Look it's just a fact...you walk into the Staples Center and see their 14 NBA title banners hanging down and the pressure you feel increases just a tad.
The pre-emininent pro franchises in America all have this mystique working to their benefit. Sure it doesn't effect all players or all teams...but sometimes it does...sometimes it makes players play better, some times it make them play worse.

And it's not always about mystique, sometimes it's about a guys hometown team...or a divisional rival but these things are factors in sports, and often they decide who wins. The Spurs shooters have a clear history of buttclenching against LA...there are no two ways about it.

And for you to say the name on the jersey means nothing is just so out of touch with what the Spurs feel themselves that I am dumbfounded...

Because I promise you beating LA in the playoffs means just about more to them than beating any other team. You don't think Duncan and Pop are sicking of the Lakers having their number? I assure they are. And players are no different in their motivations...teamns are no different.


In 1989, the Dallas Cowboys won 1 game the entire season. They were by far the worst team in the NFL that year...the team they beat on the road was a superior team who made the playoffs that year..and would win the Superbowl the very next year. That team was their top rival the Washington Redskins.

A couple of years ago we watched Don Nelson dismantle his old team in the playoffs with a far inferior team and it was all about revenge, and his players feeling they had a chance of beating that team because it was his old team.


Saying that the name on the front of the jersey doesn't matter is like saying the Yankees and Redsox is just another baseball game...

It's the "Curse of Jerry West" the Spurs will have to shake off.

Nice to read something refreshing. Good Job Whott.

[MateoNeygro]

What about Minutes Per Game?? That might have something to do with some of the numbers being low.

[wildbill2u]

An interesting post but while stats don't lie, they also can hide a very important factor that they don't cover.

Namely, the difference in playing for the Spurs as opposed to his other teams. Playing next to Timmy will definitely change the environement to which he brings his playing skills. And his other teammates will also contribute to whether his skills will be enhanced or diminished.

It's still a team sport and how he fits in with his teammates will be a big part of the equation. We've all seen trades where the acquisition simply didn't work out as expected (See A.Iverson in Denver) and trades where the player meshed very well and became an integral part of his new team and it's success. (Hopefully this will be RMason's situation)

Only Time will tell, but he's got the skills and athleticism to upgrade the team in my opinion. I doubt he will be the next Nick Van Excel.

[TampaDude]

In 1989, the Dallas Cowboys won 1 game the entire season. They were by far the worst team in the NFL that year...the team they beat on the road was a superior team who made the playoffs that year..and would win the Superbowl the very next year. That team was their top rival the Washington Redskins.


Hate to nitpick, but the Redskins won the Super Bowl two seasons later...in the 1991-1992 season. But you are right...when the Cowboys and Redskins play each other, W/L records don't matter, and you throw the stat book out the window...anything can happen...such is the beauty of a rivalry game. :hat

[Chief]

nice read.

What I do hope is that Drew has some what of a roger mason effect when he plays for us. Roger Mason was decent when he played in Washington, after we signed him, he exploded and now he's looked at as one of our best free agent signings.

I'm not sure what Roger Mason's numbers were when he played against us at Washington, but it's common sense to say guy's either struggle after they get here or they get better. I hope Drew get's better.

[TacoCabanaFajitas]

nice read.

What I do hope is that Drew has some what of a roger mason effect when he plays for us. Roger Mason was decent when he played in Washington, after we signed him, he exploded and now he's looked at as one of our best free agent signings.

I'm not sure what Roger Mason's numbers were when he played against us at Washington, but it's common sense to say guy's either struggle after they get here or they get better. I hope Drew get's better.

Mason wasn't just a decent player in Washington. While his averages may indicate he was a mediocre player, what would be more telling of his level of play is what he did in the games where Arenas wasn't jacking up all of the shots. I can remember several games from the (06?) season where Mason went over 30 pts when given the oppurtunity

[Manufan909]

He averaged over 17 ppg with Zero gone.