Regular season road record as a predictor

[Supergirl]

I was looking at the standings so far this season, and found it interesting to note how few teams have a winning record on the road this year.

My theory is that no team can win a championship, or even make it into the NBA Finals, without winning on the road. Even the Celtics had to do it last year eventually - and for awhile, when they couldn't, they looked pretty vulnerable. Has any team EVER won the championship or even gone to the Finals without having a winning record on the road in the regular season?

The teams this year who have a winning road record are:

Cleveland 24-12
Lakers 23-9
Celtics 23-11
Orlando 23-11
Spurs 21-13
New Orleans 18-15
Detroit 16-15

By this logic, the only Western team with even a PRAYER of going anywhere in the playoffs other than the Lakers and the Spurs is the Hornets, and they're barely hanging on to a better than 50% record there.

It also lends some support for the argument that the real team to beat this year in the playoffs is gonna be Cleveland. They're almost unbeatable at home, and they're the best in the league on the road.

[Spursmania]

It's tough to believe that any team has won a championship with a losing road record.

[spursfaninla]

Agreed generally. But Celtics, Lakers, Cleveland all have about the same away record.

[Allanon]

It also lends some support for the argument that the real team to beat this year in the playoffs is gonna be Cleveland. They're almost unbeatable at home, and they're the best in the league on the road.

The Lakers are the best road team. Not only by the actual number 23-9 but also in quality of wins. The Laker road losses are mostly to the Bobcats and Pacers of the world.

Cleveland has issues winning big games on the road. Most of their road losses are to a top team.

Unlike last year, the Spurs have been very good on the road this year. This is why the Spurs are the only team with a chance of knocking out the Lakers. And if the Spurs knock out the Lakers, they're winning the Championship.

[Supergirl]

The Lakers are the best road team. Not only by the actual number 23-9 but also in quality of wins. The Laker road losses are mostly to the Bobcats and Pacers of the world.

Cleveland has issues winning big games on the road. Most of their road losses are to a top team.

Unlike last year, the Spurs have been very good on the road this year. This is why the Spurs are the only team with a chance of knocking out the Lakers. And if the Spurs knock out the Lakers, they're winning the Championship.

Lakers won't win because their defense is weak. Look at the other thread where someone posted the stats on points allowed. Lakers aren't even in the top 10, which is pathetic. They're capable of playing defense, but they are made up of a collection of players who are known for disappearing under pressure and only playing defense for 1-2 quarters (Gasol, Odom, Walton, Farmar), which won't get it done in the playoffs.

Cavs v. Spurs rematch this year, I'm feeling it. Spurs won't be able to sweep the Cavs this year, but they should still prevail.

[2Cleva]

Lakers won't win because their defense is weak. Look at the other thread where someone posted the stats on points allowed. Lakers aren't even in the top 10, which is pathetic. They're capable of playing defense, but they are made up of a collection of players who are known for disappearing under pressure and only playing defense for 1-2 quarters (Gasol, Odom, Walton, Farmar), which won't get it done in the playoffs.

Cavs v. Spurs rematch this year, I'm feeling it. Spurs won't be able to sweep the Cavs this year, but they should still prevail.

Study up. Points allowed means relatively nothing because it doesn't take into account tempo. The teams at the bottom all have grinding offenses.

Note what LA is in FG% allowed - what Popovich himself says is the mark of a great defensive team and then come with it.

LA at 6th in opponents FG%, SA at 9th.

So per posession, LA is more likely to make stops than SA. SA just minimizes the posessions per game because of their style.

[101A]

Lakers won't win because their defense is weak. Look at the other thread where someone posted the stats on points allowed. Lakers aren't even in the top 10, which is pathetic. They're capable of playing defense, but they are made up of a collection of players who are known for disappearing under pressure and only playing defense for 1-2 quarters (Gasol, Odom, Walton, Farmar), which won't get it done in the playoffs.

Cavs v. Spurs rematch this year, I'm feeling it. Spurs won't be able to sweep the Cavs this year, but they should still prevail.

I disagree; Phil is very adept at situational defense; his teams throw a switch in crunch time. He's made a habit out of doing that to the Spurs; just go back and look at the number of leads the Spurs have lost in the 4th quarter in the playoffs to the Lakers over the past decade - and last year, even. He doesn't preach defense like Pop does; but he is able to get it out of his teams when he needs to.

[Drachen]

Study up. Points allowed means relatively nothing because it doesn't take into account tempo. The teams at the bottom all have grinding offenses.

Note what LA is in FG% allowed - what Popovich himself says is the mark of a great defensive team and then come with it.

LA at 6th in opponents FG%, SA at 9th.

So per posession, LA is more likely to make stops than SA. SA just minimizes the posessions per game because of their style.

***Shudder***
I actually agree here with the fact that the opp FG% is a far better indicator of a teams defensive prowess. The only X factor here is that LA has been at about 5th or 6th all season, while the Spurs at one point were in the bottom 5 in the league (I believe that they were even as far back as 17th in mid january. This means to get all the way from there down to 9th they have to have been playing from 2nd - 5th as of late in order to average down. I am not saying one team over the other at this point, all I am saying is that the disparity in defense between the Lakers and the Spurs does not scare me at all since the Spurs are known to build as the season progresses and seem to be playing their best defense right now (which is the right time).

[rascal]

LA has the best road record.

[tmtcsc]

My theory is that no team can win a championship, or even make it into the NBA Finals, without winning on the road.

That's your theory ? I love it. You know Al Gore invented the internets too right ? :lol

I'm just kidding with you Supergirl. Actually, I believe you are right to theorize that teams usually have a winning road record. I think its more a situation that they just tend to be better teams.

The talent in the NBA is so watered down its comicial. Let's face it. Year in and year out, there are usually only about 4 teams out of 30 something that actually have a chance to win it all. Then it becomes about injuries or just staying healthy....

[Allanon]

Lakers won't win because their defense is weak. Look at the other thread where someone posted the stats on points allowed. Lakers aren't even in the top 10, which is pathetic. They're capable of playing defense, but they are made up of a collection of players who are known for disappearing under pressure and only playing defense for 1-2 quarters (Gasol, Odom, Walton, Farmar), which won't get it done in the playoffs.

The Laker defense is quite underrated due to their PPG allowed. But as 2Cleva pointed out, that stat doesn't take into count the number of possessions. It's like saying Bonner is faster than Tony Parker because Bonner at full sprint can beat Tony while he's jogging.

Gasol, Odom, Walton, Farmar played well last year until the Finals. The Celtics were just too big and too tough for the Lakers. The Lakers have toughened up this year as evidenced by their gritty 4-0 vs Cavs/Celtics (last year they were 1-3). This year, the Lakers were the aggressors with the bumps and hard fouls against the Celtics.

[sonic21]

didn't miami have a losing road record in 2006?

edit: they had a 21-20 road record

[urunobili]

The Lakers have toughened up this year as evidenced by their gritty 4-0 vs Cavs/Celtics (last year they were 1-3). This year, the Lakers were the aggressors with the bumps and hard fouls against the Celtics.

you also should add the cheap shots they are delivering... to both Wallace and Fernandez.. apart form toughen up the wrong way on many plays... they are creating bad Karma and also peaking a lil too early... This is Lebron's year to go all the way... it'd be sad to see you lose in the Finals again... but oh well... shit happens... :downspin:

[Allanon]

you also should add the cheap shots they are delivering... to both Wallace and Fernandez.. apart form toughen up the wrong way on many plays... they are creating bad Karma and also peaking a lil too early... This is Lebron's year to go all the way... it'd be sad to see you lose in the Finals again... but oh well... shit happens... :downspin:

Bynum and Ariza have never been known for taking cheap shots, theirs were the results of accidents and youthful exuberance. Unfortunate but accidental nonetheless.

As for the Cavs, they match up poorly against the Lakers due to their weak interior defense. LeBron has not been a factor because he can be guarded by 3 of the best Laker defenders... Ariza/Odom/Kobe.

Their games versus the Lakers this year were not even as close as the 17 and 10 points indicated due to scrub time.

Celtics/Spurs/Magic have all played the Lakers better than the Cavs have. Cavs would be lucky not to get swept by the Lakers.

[mathbzh]

didn't miami have a losing road record in 2006?

edit: they had a 21-20 road record

With Shaq, they had a 19-9 record.

[Supergirl]

***Shudder***
I actually agree here with the fact that the opp FG% is a far better indicator of a teams defensive prowess. The only X factor here is that LA has been at about 5th or 6th all season, while the Spurs at one point were in the bottom 5 in the league (I believe that they were even as far back as 17th in mid january. This means to get all the way from there down to 9th they have to have been playing from 2nd - 5th as of late in order to average down. I am not saying one team over the other at this point, all I am saying is that the disparity in defense between the Lakers and the Spurs does not scare me at all since the Spurs are known to build as the season progresses and seem to be playing their best defense right now (which is the right time).

I agree with the importance of FG % but if LA and the Spurs don't improve from 6th or 9th, neither one will make it to the finals. But the Spurs have a long history of turning up their defense in the playoffs, whereas it's not really clear that the current Lakers have the same ability.

[Supergirl]

Bynum and Ariza have never been known for taking cheap shots, theirs were the results of accidents and youthful exuberance. Unfortunate but accidental nonetheless.

As for the Cavs, they match up poorly against the Lakers due to their weak interior defense. LeBron has not been a factor because he can be guarded by 3 of the best Laker defenders... Ariza/Odom/Kobe.

Their games versus the Lakers this year were not even as close as the 17 and 10 points indicated due to scrub time.

Celtics/Spurs/Magic have all played the Lakers better than the Cavs have. Cavs would be lucky not to get swept by the Lakers.

I like the Cavs over the Lakers any day. No one on the Lakers can guard Lebron, but the Cavs d can keep Bryant in check, and Gasol may put up great numbers but he's not good enough to get it done by himself.

Cavs versus Spurs is a better, tougher matchup. Spurs have people who can make Lebron work 1:1...but it will be tough. But the Cavs loss of Ben Wallace will ultimately be their downfall against the Spurs, cause that's all they had to stop Tim Duncan.

[Allanon]

I like the Cavs over the Lakers any day. No one on the Lakers can guard Lebron, but the Cavs d can keep Bryant in check, and Gasol may put up great numbers but he's not good enough to get it done by himself.

The Lakers can be beat, just not by the Cavaliers...very bad matchup for the Cavs. There are only 2 guys in the NBA who have the size and speed to guard LeBron one on one, 1 is on the Lakers and the other is on the Pistons. Nick Batum will probably become the third LeBron stopper.

Conversely, the Magic would easily beat the Lakers due to their size, strong post defense/offense (DHo) + hot 3 point shooting.

It's all about the matchups.

[hater]

The Spurs IMO are the only elite team that can win it all on the road. The Cavs most definitely need home court all the way. The Lakers do too, because of their lack of bench. When you don't have a bench, you have no chance to win on the road. Do you really expect Sasha Vujacic to come and take over on the road??

Boston is a deep team with good defense they might be able to win it all on the road. But last playoffs proved this theory wrong as they needed their HCA to win it all.

[mathbzh]

Study up. Points allowed means relatively nothing because it doesn't take into account tempo. The teams at the bottom all have grinding offenses.

Note what LA is in FG% allowed - what Popovich himself says is the mark of a great defensive team and then come with it.

LA at 6th in opponents FG%, SA at 9th.

So per posession, LA is more likely to make stops than SA. SA just minimizes the posessions per game because of their style.

FG% allowed is a good indicator but not a complete one.
There are some other factors;
- SA is fouling less than any team in the NBA (18.74 FPG)
- SA is the best team in the NBA in Defensive Rebound Rate.
- 3 pt shooting.
- TO

[Allanon]

The Spurs IMO are the only elite team that can win it all on the road. The Cavs most definitely need home court all the way. The Lakers do too, because of their lack of bench. When you don't have a bench, you have no chance to win on the road. Do you really expect Sasha Vujacic to come and take over on the road??

The Lakers bench sucks right now. But the return of Bynum should fix this by putting Lamar back and possibly Ariza back on the bench.

The bench lost its two best players as a result of Bynum being out.

[hater]

The Lakers would have a good bench if they bring Ariza + Odom off it. If Bynum comes back 100%. thats a big IF

[2Cleva]

FG% allowed is a good indicator but not a complete one.
There are some other factors;
- SA is fouling less than any team in the NBA (18.74 FPG)
- SA is the best team in the NBA in Defensive Rebound Rate.
- 3 pt shooting.
- TO

Some good ones.

- SA fouling less has to do with their rep combined with less opportunities to foul because of less posessions.
- No question about 3 point shooting.
- Lack of turnovers is more about the offense they run. When your PG shoots more than he sets up others, it cuts down on turnovers.

[Allanon]

The Lakers would have a good bench if they bring Ariza + Odom off it. If Bynum comes back 100%. thats a big IF

I agree. As usual it comes down to Bynum. The Lakers don't have that extra edge on other teams without him. It's not so much about the numbers he brings but moreso the cascading impact he has on the team's rotation. Bynum doesn't necessarily make the starters much better but he greatly improves the bench.

The Lakers right now are a 5-6 man team because the bench is useless. Bynum coming back would make the Lakers 10 deep once again.

[Fabbs]

My theory is that no team can win a championship, or even make it into the NBA Finals, without winning on the road.......Has any team EVER won the championship or even gone to the Finals without having a winning record on the road in the regular season?

Good questions. Hopefully someone will post results.

[Allanon]

All the champs since the Jordan era have had winning records on the road. Not sure about before that.

[mathbzh]

- Lack of turnovers is more about the offense they run. When your PG shoots more than he sets up others, it cuts down on turnovers.

Actually I was thinking more about the opponent TO. And not specifically about the Spurs (Spurs don't force a lot of TO).

[mathbzh]

Some good ones.
- SA fouling less has to do with their rep combined with less opportunities to foul because of less posessions.
This is not only a matter of pace. Portland has the lower pace in the NBA but is fouling more than SA.



- No question about 3 point shooting.

I don't see what you mean.

[2Cleva]

This is not only a matter of pace. Portland has the lower pace in the NBA but is fouling more than SA.

Portland doesn't have SA's rep. Plus they are young overall and aren't going to get the same call a vet does.

In regards to 3 point shooting, I thought you meant SA does well in that cat - which I agree. If you meant where SA is defensively - its not surprising considering whose defending the perimeter.

[rascal]

FG% allowed is a good indicator but not a complete one.
There are some other factors;
- SA is fouling less than any team in the NBA (18.74 FPG)
- SA is the best team in the NBA in Defensive Rebound Rate.
- 3 pt shooting.
- TO

You need to look at all the stats if you want to start breaking down specific categories where the spurs rank. How are they compared in easy points off transistion turnovers or points inside the paint area or total possessions, ect. The spurs will not fair well in those areas so crunching down on a few selective stats is worthless without considering everything.

[mathbzh]

You need to look at all the stats if you want to start breaking down specific categories where the spurs rank. How are they compared in easy points off transistion turnovers or points inside the paint area or total possessions, ect. The spurs will not fair well in those areas so crunching down on a few selective stats is worthless without considering everything.

This is exactly my point:toast

[Horse]

I disagree; Phil is very adept at situational defense; his teams throw a switch in crunch time. He's made a habit out of doing that to the Spurs; just go back and look at the number of leads the Spurs have lost in the 4th quarter in the playoffs to the Lakers over the past decade - and last year, even. He doesn't preach defense like Pop does; but he is able to get it out of his teams when he needs to.
Somewhat agreed. But he's the best at preaching about officials inbetween games and that has won him as many games as shaq and kobe.

[Drachen]

I agree with the importance of FG % but if LA and the Spurs don't improve from 6th or 9th, neither one will make it to the finals. But the Spurs have a long history of turning up their defense in the playoffs, whereas it's not really clear that the current Lakers have the same ability.

I'm not sure, but I think you missed my point. I am saying that they have already improved past where their 9th place indicates. In order for them to have been able to average up from (I believe it was) 27th in the league after about 15-20 games, and to average up from 17th in the league in mid january, they have to have been playing at a level that is substantially higher than the 9th place indicates. Look at it this way, if the spurs had started out 3-17 to have the 27th best record in the league after 20 games, they have to play win more than the 1st place team (or second, or third) out of their next 40 games in order to make it to 9th place in the league after 60 games. Meanwhile, (and I could be wrong on this) I believe the lakers have been anywhere from 4th-6th all year long. This means that they have played at about the same level (never last, never first) for any meaningful stretch of games. I guess what it boils down to is, compare the last 20 games (I would think this is a large enough sample, but you may disagree) for the teams to get a true comparison of where each team is at right now for this particular statistic.