jiggy_55
03-23-2009, 02:15 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090323
PER Diem: March 23, 2009
Southwest Division race heats up after Rockets take one from Spurs on Sunday
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
SAN ANTONIO -- It's good to be in a city where absolutely nobody is talking about the NCAA tournament Monday morning. And fitting, too. Sorry, college fans, but Sunday's Rockets-Spurs classic dwarfed anything the colleges gave us this past weekend in both quality and intensity.
Allow me to share some snippets of conversation from the airport security line as I traveled home:
"They're behind Houston now, I can't believe it."
"They got screwed by the refs on that goaltend." (That was a reference to a questionable follow shot by Yao Ming late in the fourth quarter.)
"And Friday they choked at the line, went 0-for-6 at the end."
"Their defense sucked down the stretch."
That last one, by the way, came from a little old lady. That shows both how much the Spurs matter to folks in this town and how much their fans are worried about an uncharacteristic late-season slump.
The fear is appropriate, as the late-May basketball to which the fans have become accustomed during the past decade appears to be less than a sure thing this time around. Sunday night's loss to Houston not only dropped the Spurs a half-game behind the Rockets but also took their odds of winning the Southwest Division to less than 50 percent for the first time in a while. According to Monday's Playoff Odds, the team's chances stand at 46.1 percent.
But let's not push the panic button just yet. San Antonio has lost one fewer game than Houston, meaning that if the Spurs take care of their business, the Rockets can't do anything to maintain their lead. The Spurs also have a slight scheduling advantage down the stretch (more on that in a minute).
San Antonio's odds of winning the division are still better than Houston's, actually, as the Rockets are at 35.1 percent. However, the two teams' most likely win outcomes are the same -- a dead heat at 53 wins.
And remember, despite the rivalry atop the division, this is not a two-horse race. New Orleans benefited nearly as much as the Rockets from their win Sunday, as the Hornets are just 1½ games out of first in the Southwest Division and even with Houston in the all-important loss column. The Hornets still play the Rockets once and the Spurs twice down the stretch, meaning a late hot streak could allow them to surprise and run off with a division title. They have a 19.8 percent chance of doing that, according to Monday's odds.
Houston's win also has caused a similar story in my Power Rankings on Monday morning. Houston has moved ahead of San Antonio to claim the position of "distant fifth" (the league's No. 5 team in the Rankings, but miles behind No. 4 Orlando). San Antonio isn't even sixth, actually. Portland also moved percentage points ahead of the Spurs after Saturday's win in Milwaukee.
But here's where it gets really interesting. If the Spurs and Rockets end up tied at 53 wins, as the playoff odds predict, the tiebreaker will depend an awful lot on how either team reaches 53.
The first tiebreaker is the teams' head-to-head record, but they split the season series 2-2, so that won't be a factor. After that, the next tiebreaker is record against division opponents, and the Spurs and Rockets easily could end up tied in that as well. The Spurs are 9-5 against Houston's 8-6, but if the Spurs split their final two division games (a home-and-home with the Hornets) while the Rockets sweep their last two (home against New Orleans and at Dallas), both teams will finish with identical division records.
The next tiebreaker would be conference records, and in that department, Houston (30-13) has a half-game lead on San Antonio (29-13). But if the division outcomes I mentioned above happen, and if both teams win their final out-of-conference games (Houston will host Orlando on April 7 while the Spurs will play a pair of road games at Cleveland and Atlanta), both teams would finish with identical conference records, too.
Now we're really getting into the deep end of the tiebreak pool. The next one is record against conference playoff teams, where the Rockets would appear to have an edge as long as Dallas beats out Phoenix for the final playoff spot. But if in addition to the outcomes above, Houston loses to Utah on the road while the Spurs stumble in one of the three road tilts against nonplayoff Western teams (Golden State, Sacramento or Oklahoma City), the two teams would tie there, too.
If that happens, the second-to-last tiebreaker would be the record against nonconference playoff teams -- i.e., the ones from the East. Houston appears to have a better shot here, as the Rockets have six losses against playoff teams from the East compared to seven for the Spurs. Plus, the scenario I gave above implies the Rockets will add a game to their lead if they beat Orlando, and the Spurs will have tough contests against the Cavs and Hawks.
Which is unfortunate, because the last tiebreaker is a favorite here at Hollinger headquarters: scoring margin. Alas, we'll have to wait for some other season for that statistic to decide a team's playoff seeding. It appears to be mathematically impossible for the teams to tie in division record, conference record and record versus playoff teams from the East yet still end up with the same win-loss record.
By the way, those pesky Hornets remain the wild card here. New Orleans has five games left against division opponents, so it could inflict losses on its rivals while at the same time building up an advantage in conference record, particularly if it sweeps the Spurs.
All told, it makes for one of the most compelling division races in some time. It's a three-way battle that features some great head-to-heads at the wire (the Hornets play the Rockets and Spurs in their final two games), and subjectively, the odds seem even better distributed among the three teams than my playoff odds indicate.
That's because the odds don't know that the Spurs are hurting, with Tim Duncan seemingly operating at about 75 percent and Manu Ginobili still out of the lineup. That, in turn, should help the Hornets' chances as much as any other team's, because they'll still play the Spurs twice.
So, flip a three-sided coin and see where it lands. With three weeks to go in the season, that's the lay of the land in the Southwest Division. The only thing I can reasonably bet on is that the conclusion will again prove more exciting than that other basketball event going on.
PER Diem: March 23, 2009
Southwest Division race heats up after Rockets take one from Spurs on Sunday
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
SAN ANTONIO -- It's good to be in a city where absolutely nobody is talking about the NCAA tournament Monday morning. And fitting, too. Sorry, college fans, but Sunday's Rockets-Spurs classic dwarfed anything the colleges gave us this past weekend in both quality and intensity.
Allow me to share some snippets of conversation from the airport security line as I traveled home:
"They're behind Houston now, I can't believe it."
"They got screwed by the refs on that goaltend." (That was a reference to a questionable follow shot by Yao Ming late in the fourth quarter.)
"And Friday they choked at the line, went 0-for-6 at the end."
"Their defense sucked down the stretch."
That last one, by the way, came from a little old lady. That shows both how much the Spurs matter to folks in this town and how much their fans are worried about an uncharacteristic late-season slump.
The fear is appropriate, as the late-May basketball to which the fans have become accustomed during the past decade appears to be less than a sure thing this time around. Sunday night's loss to Houston not only dropped the Spurs a half-game behind the Rockets but also took their odds of winning the Southwest Division to less than 50 percent for the first time in a while. According to Monday's Playoff Odds, the team's chances stand at 46.1 percent.
But let's not push the panic button just yet. San Antonio has lost one fewer game than Houston, meaning that if the Spurs take care of their business, the Rockets can't do anything to maintain their lead. The Spurs also have a slight scheduling advantage down the stretch (more on that in a minute).
San Antonio's odds of winning the division are still better than Houston's, actually, as the Rockets are at 35.1 percent. However, the two teams' most likely win outcomes are the same -- a dead heat at 53 wins.
And remember, despite the rivalry atop the division, this is not a two-horse race. New Orleans benefited nearly as much as the Rockets from their win Sunday, as the Hornets are just 1½ games out of first in the Southwest Division and even with Houston in the all-important loss column. The Hornets still play the Rockets once and the Spurs twice down the stretch, meaning a late hot streak could allow them to surprise and run off with a division title. They have a 19.8 percent chance of doing that, according to Monday's odds.
Houston's win also has caused a similar story in my Power Rankings on Monday morning. Houston has moved ahead of San Antonio to claim the position of "distant fifth" (the league's No. 5 team in the Rankings, but miles behind No. 4 Orlando). San Antonio isn't even sixth, actually. Portland also moved percentage points ahead of the Spurs after Saturday's win in Milwaukee.
But here's where it gets really interesting. If the Spurs and Rockets end up tied at 53 wins, as the playoff odds predict, the tiebreaker will depend an awful lot on how either team reaches 53.
The first tiebreaker is the teams' head-to-head record, but they split the season series 2-2, so that won't be a factor. After that, the next tiebreaker is record against division opponents, and the Spurs and Rockets easily could end up tied in that as well. The Spurs are 9-5 against Houston's 8-6, but if the Spurs split their final two division games (a home-and-home with the Hornets) while the Rockets sweep their last two (home against New Orleans and at Dallas), both teams will finish with identical division records.
The next tiebreaker would be conference records, and in that department, Houston (30-13) has a half-game lead on San Antonio (29-13). But if the division outcomes I mentioned above happen, and if both teams win their final out-of-conference games (Houston will host Orlando on April 7 while the Spurs will play a pair of road games at Cleveland and Atlanta), both teams would finish with identical conference records, too.
Now we're really getting into the deep end of the tiebreak pool. The next one is record against conference playoff teams, where the Rockets would appear to have an edge as long as Dallas beats out Phoenix for the final playoff spot. But if in addition to the outcomes above, Houston loses to Utah on the road while the Spurs stumble in one of the three road tilts against nonplayoff Western teams (Golden State, Sacramento or Oklahoma City), the two teams would tie there, too.
If that happens, the second-to-last tiebreaker would be the record against nonconference playoff teams -- i.e., the ones from the East. Houston appears to have a better shot here, as the Rockets have six losses against playoff teams from the East compared to seven for the Spurs. Plus, the scenario I gave above implies the Rockets will add a game to their lead if they beat Orlando, and the Spurs will have tough contests against the Cavs and Hawks.
Which is unfortunate, because the last tiebreaker is a favorite here at Hollinger headquarters: scoring margin. Alas, we'll have to wait for some other season for that statistic to decide a team's playoff seeding. It appears to be mathematically impossible for the teams to tie in division record, conference record and record versus playoff teams from the East yet still end up with the same win-loss record.
By the way, those pesky Hornets remain the wild card here. New Orleans has five games left against division opponents, so it could inflict losses on its rivals while at the same time building up an advantage in conference record, particularly if it sweeps the Spurs.
All told, it makes for one of the most compelling division races in some time. It's a three-way battle that features some great head-to-heads at the wire (the Hornets play the Rockets and Spurs in their final two games), and subjectively, the odds seem even better distributed among the three teams than my playoff odds indicate.
That's because the odds don't know that the Spurs are hurting, with Tim Duncan seemingly operating at about 75 percent and Manu Ginobili still out of the lineup. That, in turn, should help the Hornets' chances as much as any other team's, because they'll still play the Spurs twice.
So, flip a three-sided coin and see where it lands. With three weeks to go in the season, that's the lay of the land in the Southwest Division. The only thing I can reasonably bet on is that the conclusion will again prove more exciting than that other basketball event going on.