SI.com: Forrester: Projecting The Playoff Matchups

[duncan228]

I just did the West, and the Spurs stuff. Hit the link for the rest.

Projecting the playoff matchups (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/paul_forrester/03/29/matchups.notes/index.html)
Paul Forrester

Less than three weeks remain in the regular season. The playoff participants are largely set, but the matchups are not. Let's take a look at how the conferences will likely finish and what that means when the postseason starts April 18 (all records and schedules are through Sunday).

Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers (58-15)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 1 seed
Games Remaining: 5 home; 4 away
Games vs. Teams Above .500: 4
Projected Finish: 7-2 (65-17); No. 1 seed. With the Western Conference clinched, the Lakers are focused on gaining home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. They trail Cleveland by two games.
What Lies Ahead: A date with a Mavericks team that the Lakers have yet to lose to this season and won't in the first round.

San Antonio Spurs (48-25)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 2 seed
Games Remaining: 4 home; 5 away
Games vs. Teams Above .500: 4
Projected Finish: 7-2 (55-27); No. 2 seed. With the Thunder on the schedule twice, plus games against the Pacers and Kings, the Spurs should have plenty of cushion to reacclimate Manu Ginobili to game action.
What Lies Ahead: A first-round matchup against the dangerous Jazz. Nursing injuries all season, Utah has been playing its best down the stretch. And with Deron Williams matching up with him at point guard, Tony Parker won't find the lane as clear as he often does.

Denver Nuggets (48-26)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 3 seed
Games Remaining: 5 home; 3 away
Games vs. Teams Above .500: 3
Projected Finish: 6-2 (54-28); No. 3 seed. The remaining schedule includes the Knicks, Clippers, Timberwolves, Thunder and Kings.
What Lies Ahead: An attempt to get past the first round, which the Nuggets haven't done in each of the last four seasons. Chris Paul and the Hornets won't make the task easy in the first round, but that's why Denver imported Chauncey Billups, isn't it?

Houston Rockets (48-26)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 4 seed
Games Remaining: 3 home; 5 away
Games vs. teams above .500: 6
Projected Finish: 6-2 (54-28); No. 4 seed. A demanding April schedule features the Lakers, Portland, Orlando and New Orleans. Houston also gets road games at Sacramento and Golden State
What Lies Ahead: Houston will have an excellent chance to win its first playoff series since 1996-97.

Portland Trail Blazers (46-27)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 5 seed
Games Remaining: 4 home; 5 away
Games vs. teams above .500: 4
Projected Finish: 7-2 (53-29); No. 5 seed. Portland plays three of its final four at home, with the road game at the Clippers.
What Lies Ahead: A first-round date with the Rockets, who have learned how to win without Tracy McGrady with a steady dose of Yao Ming inside and ferocious perimeter defense thanks to Ron Artest and Shane Battier.

New Orleans Hornets (45-27)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 7 seed
Games Remaining: 3 home; 7 away
Games vs. Teams Above .500: 7
Projected Finish: 6-4 (51-31); No. 6 seed. With three out of four away from home to end the season (visits to Dallas, Houston and San Antonio), the Hornets will fail to catch the Blazers and will have to fight hard to stay ahead of the Jazz.
What Lies Ahead: Will Tyson Chandler (ankle) and Peja Stojakovic (back) be ready for the playoffs?

Utah Jazz (45-27)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 6 seed
Games Remaining: 4 home; 6 away
Games vs. Teams Above .500: 6
Projected Finish: 5-5 (50-32); No. 7 seed (by virtue of winning season series against Mavs). Circle April 8 on your calendar; that's when the Jazz visit Dallas, which needs a late-season push to avoid facing the Lakers in the first round.
What Lies Ahead: A basketball purist's dream: first-round series against the Spurs. Utah will be hard-pressed to advance without home-court advantage.

Dallas Mavericks (43-30)

If The Playoffs Started Today: No. 8 seed
Games Remaining: 6 home; 3 away
Games vs. Teams Above .500: 6
Projected Finish: 7-2 (50-32); No. 8 seed. The Mavs have lost only nine all year at home, so having six more games in Dallas should be enough to fend off the ninth-place Suns.
What Lies Ahead: A potential 50-win team deserves a better fate than having to meet Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in the first round.

What's Hot

• Tony Parker's shoulders. The Spurs won three of four last week with Parker carrying the load: 27.5 points (on 67.1 percent shooting) and 8.3 assists. Parker is averaging 25.6 points and 7.8 assists this month.

Scout's take

The Spurs have quietly put together one of the league's better offenses, ranking seventh in shooting (46.5 percent) and third in three-point shooting (38.9 percent). An NBA scout assesses San Antonio's success, which extends beyond Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

"They have a great offensive system. Gregg Popovich might have the largest playbook in the NBA. They run something called motion weak and motion strong, that's the foundation of it. The ball changes sides of the floor, they know their spots, so they don't have to call it out. They just automatically flow into it.

"It's not easy to stop because it's not a pattern. When [an offense] is not a pattern, there are reads out of it -- if the ball goes to a particular place, then someone goes to the strong corner -- and that's not so easy to defend. Much of what they do is a read-and-react offense, like the triangle offense. It's freedom within structure.

"Clearly, having some of the same players there year after year helps them know it, but even new guys can adapt quickly. Roger Mason came in this year and learned it right away."

[2Cleva]

Talk about a perfect scenario for the Lakers.

- Take care of Dallas in 4 and have plenty of rest for Round 2.
- Only have to face 1 of the 4 potential Laker killers - Paul, Deron, Billups, and the Spurs.
- Neither Houston or Portland in Round 2 cause me to even raise an eyebrow. Both clubs would just be happy to be there.

LA moonwalks to the WCF to face a team that has been through their worse potential matchups.

[Spursmania]

True LA will have an easy walk to the WCF. Too bad, I was hoping they'd get some tough rounds.

[TampaDude]

Talk about a perfect scenario for the Lakers.

- Take care of Dallas in 4 and have plenty of rest for Round 2.
- Only have to face 1 of the 4 potential Laker killers - Paul, Deron, Billups, and the Spurs.
- Neither Houston or Portland in Round 2 cause me to even raise an eyebrow. Both clubs would just be happy to be there.

LA moonwalks to the WCF to face a team that has been through their worse potential matchups.

WERD...have fun against LeBron in the Finals. :toast

[HarlemHeat37]

I really hope LA doesn't play Dallas in the 1st round, I can't really see the Mavs winning a game..

if the Lakers get any team other than Dallas or Denver in the 1st round, I'll be happy..

[superfedja]

If I'm the Lakers I don't want to face a playoff Portland team. I've followed Greg Oden for quite a few years now. He's a natural winner. Want proof ? Check Portland's record without him in the line-up versus their record with him in the line-up. It's not a coincidence they're making the playoffs this year. He impacts the game more than people know and I wouldn't want to face him in the playoffs. With that said, I still believe the Lakers will pull it off but I don't think Portland is an easy match-up for them.¸Oden and Roy tend to step-up when it matters.

[TheDarkSide.]

Damn all the Western conferences teams are projected to have 50 win records? When's the last time that happened?

[Bukefal]

Talk about a perfect scenario for the Lakers.

- Take care of Dallas in 4 and have plenty of rest for Round 2.
- Only have to face 1 of the 4 potential Laker killers - Paul, Deron, Billups, and the Spurs.
- Neither Houston or Portland in Round 2 cause me to even raise an eyebrow. Both clubs would just be happy to be there.

LA moonwalks to the WCF to face a team that has been through their worse potential matchups.

OMG i so hope lakers are going to get their asses kicked :lmao

Anyway, We can just hope for all the best for the spurs, with TP being a superstar, manu's comeback and tim, we can have a wonderful playoff time and i really have faith in them, everything will be just allright. :flag:

[crc21209]

Talk about a perfect scenario for the Lakers.

- Take care of Dallas in 4 and have plenty of rest for Round 2.
- Only have to face 1 of the 4 potential Laker killers - Paul, Deron, Billups, and the Spurs.
- Neither Houston or Portland in Round 2 cause me to even raise an eyebrow. Both clubs would just be happy to be there.

LA moonwalks to the WCF to face a team that has been through their worse potential matchups.

Oh you are a funny man...let the rest of the Season play out before we start talking about who's facing who here.

[Allanon]

If the matchups do end up as Forrester predicts, the Lakers certainly do have the most favorable road to the WCF.

Lakers have Dallas' number for whatever reason

Houston/Portland in the 2nd round is new territory for both teams with 0 players who have been past the first round.

[xtremesteven33]

If the matchups do end up as Forrester predicts, the Lakers certainly do have the most favorable road to the WCF.



just like last year:depressed

[TampaDude]

Damn all the Western conferences teams are projected to have 50 win records? When's the last time that happened?

I think it happened last year, didn't it?

[urunobili]

If the matchups do end up as Forrester predicts, the Lakers certainly do have the most favorable road to the WCF.

it really doesn't get any easier than that... it should be a walk in the park :toast

[Mark in Austin]

still holding out hope for PHX to make it past Dallas. Would love to see LA - PHX. Even though LA would win, I woud love to see Shaq motivated to have moster games at Staples...

[TampaDude]

still holding out hope for PHX to make it past Dallas. Would love to see LA - PHX. Even though LA would win, I woud love to see Shaq motivated to have moster games at Staples...

Still mathematically possible, but not likely.

[Allanon]

still holding out hope for PHX to make it past Dallas. Would love to see LA - PHX. Even though LA would win, I woud love to see Shaq motivated to have moster games at Staples...

Suns would definitely make the first round much more entertaining for Laker fans and undoubtedly will provide a "scare" game. As somebody else said, against the Mavs, laughing at Mark Cuban is about as good as it will get.

I'd rather get the Jazz/Suns in the 1st round personally and have the Mavs play the Spurs. That's 2 really nice series there.

[crc21209]

One thing is for sure...the Playoffs are going to be pretty damn good again this year from the 1st round and on in the West.

[crc21209]

OMG i so hope lakers are going to get their asses kicked :lmao

Anyway, We can just hope for all the best for the spurs, with TP being a superstar, manu's comeback and tim, we can have a wonderful playoff time and i really have faith in them, everything will be just allright. :flag:

Way to believe man. :toast. I think the Spurs will pick it up in the last 9 games and go into the Playoffs just fine. I personally think that the way TP is playing this year he is going to own the Playoffs and be the "man" for us and take over the Playoffs the same way Manu did in 05', only this time it will be TP's turn....and this time..we shouldnt have as many offense droughts ala last yr with lineups of Vaughn, Udoka, Horry out there at the same damn time. We are better offensively as a whole and just as good defensively. :flag:

[alchemist]

If Parker is aggressive I don't care who the Spurs play, but Pop has to keep the ball in Parker's hand not make him roam the court like he did yesterday.

[Don Quixote]

IF this turns out to be true, I don't know if the Spurs advance to the second round.

I think Utah beats us in 6 or 7 in that matchup.

[Bukefal]

If Parker is aggressive I don't care who the Spurs play, but Pop has to keep the ball in Parker's hand not make him roam the court like he did yesterday.

Agree, parker should continue to lead the whole team, even if manu is back. TP is on fire, its a shame when his leading skills are not used.

Damn im looking forward to the playoffs, bring it on!!! :flag::flag::flag::lobt:

[xtremesteven33]

IF this turns out to be true, I don't know if the Spurs advance to the second round.

I think Utah beats us in 6 or 7 in that matchup.



:lmao

I would love to see Utah win a playoff game in San Antonio

[anonoftheinternets]

IF this turns out to be true, I don't know if the Spurs advance to the second round.

I think Utah beats us in 6 or 7 in that matchup.

LOL i gotta bump this up, if jazz do play the spurs, pull ur head out of ur ass, where have u been for the past few years? :lmao. Jazz cant beat anyone on the road.

[TheManFromAcme]

If I'm the Lakers I don't want to face a playoff Portland team. I've followed Greg Oden for quite a few years now. He's a natural winner. Want proof ? Check Portland's record without him in the line-up versus their record with him in the line-up. It's not a coincidence they're making the playoffs this year. He impacts the game more than people know and I wouldn't want to face him in the playoffs. With that said, I still believe the Lakers will pull it off but I don't think Portland is an easy match-up for them.¸Oden and Roy tend to step-up when it matters.

I hear you man. Roy gives us fits and I am in the same camp as you are that Oden is much better than people give him credit for. I've seen him muscle Bynum around not much but he does have some moves that leaves Drew munching on wind. With that said, I think Bynum (should he return and I am fairly confident he will) Drew is much more in his arsenal than Oden does but your right, I think both the Lakers and Spurs should give a whole lot more respect to a Oden line-up than previously thought.

[pawe]

I wonder how much money will Cuban lose in fines when they face the Lakers.

[crc21209]

I hear you man. Roy gives us fits and I am in the same camp as you are that Oden is much better than people give him credit for. I've seen him muscle Bynum around not much but he does have some moves that leaves Drew munching on wind. With that said, I think Bynum (should he return and I am fairly confident he will) Drew is much more in his arsenal than Oden does but your right, I think both the Lakers and Spurs should give a whole lot more respect to a Oden line-up than previously thought.

Only problem is Oden hasnt even been able to play about 20 games in a row this year.

[Spursfan092120]

Talk about a perfect scenario for the Lakers.

- Take care of Dallas in 4 and have plenty of rest for Round 2.
- Only have to face 1 of the 4 potential Laker killers - Paul, Deron, Billups, and the Spurs.
- Neither Houston or Portland in Round 2 cause me to even raise an eyebrow. Both clubs would just be happy to be there.

LA moonwalks to the WCF to face a team that has been through their worse potential matchups.
ty-pi-cal. Never seen as many Laker fans just think they're being handed this title. Oh wait..yeah I have..last year. Hmm....Haven't won a title since 2002 and you guys just think the LOB is going to be handed to you. Not they way you're playing right now. Ask Atlanta if you deserve the title. My point is..you have to earn the trophy in the second season, not the first. And you can speak to the 2007 Dallas Mavericks about that one.

[Don Quixote]

if jazz do play the spurs, pull ur head out of ur ass, where have u been for the past few years? :lmao. Jazz cant beat anyone on the road.

That's true. The Jazz don't win very often on the road. But the Spurs are weak this year, and all Utah would have to win is 1. Not all of em. Just 1.