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Ed Helicopter Jones
03-30-2009, 07:52 PM
Final ’08-’09 Regular Season West Playoff Seedings....unofficially.


Here’s how I see the last couple of weeks of the regular season breaking down and the seedings 1-8 in the West:


1. LA Lakers 63-19 - I see Phil Jackson letting the team zenfully coast towards the post season finishing 5-4 in their final nine games. More or less assured the second best record in the league, and guaranteed the best record in the West, the team won’t have much to play for, so why risk another injury at this point in the season.

2T. San Antonio Spurs 55-27 – When you look at the Spurs’ remaining schedule, you could argue that they should be able to go 8-1 in their remaining nine games (4 at home and 5 on the road). The only tough road game is at Cleveland. Homecourt challenges include Utah, Portland and then the Hornets on the last day of the regular season. Every other game should be a check in the win column….note the emphasis on “should”. I predict 7-2 though, as I’m sure the Spurs will manage to give up a game to a scrub team before it’s all said and done. The Spurs have a one game advantage in conference play over Denver at this point but the two are virtually even and it appears they’ll remain deadlocked all the way to the post season. The Spurs won't finish lower than the 3 seed, though, as they and Denver will emerge from the pack over these last few games.

2T. Denver 55-27 – With the way the Nuggets are playing right now, they are poised to end the season on a 7 of 8 game run. Their only tough home game is Utah, and they play Portland and the Lakers on the road. I’m thinking LA will be in coast mode by then, and Denver will take that one making Portland or Utah their last loss of the regular season. For the Spurs sake I hope Denver stumbles more than once, but their schedule is probably the only one of the contenders that I’d say is more favorable than the Spurs.

4. Houston 53-29 – Houston has a pretty tough stretch of games, including road games at Phoenix, the Lakers and Dallas, and only three remaining home games, including contests with Orlando and Portland. I figure they’ll drop 3 of those along the way to finish the regular season 5-3 and be all alone as the 4 seed. Houston vs. New Orleans will be a nice first round matchup, and either team should test LA in round 2.

5T. New Orleans 52-30 – With ten games left, the Hornets have a fairly tough remainder to their schedule. A home and home series with Dallas, and road games at Houston, San Antonio and Miami highlight their remaining calendar. In spite of their improved play I’m going to say 7-3 is about the best they can expect. They have better conference and division records than Portland, though, so they should secure the 5 seed.

5T. Portland 52-30 – Portland has nine games left punctuated by games at Houston, at San Antonio, and at home against the Lakers, the Nuggets and the Jazz. Six and three is a reasonable prediction for how they’ll wind up, and play as the six seed. It will be interesting to see how this young, energized team will play against either San Antonio or Denver in round one.

7. Utah 51-31 – Utah might have the toughest stretch of games remaining of any Western team. They play 6 of their 10 remaining games on the road including games at Denver, at Portland, at the Hornets, at the Mavs, and at San Antonio. I’m generously giving them a 6-4 finish and 51 wins. Lock them in as the seven seed at this point.

8. Dallas 50-32 - Dallas is as unpredictable as the Spurs. They can play great ball one night and crappy the next. With nine games left, the Mavs have the advantage of only having 3 of those on the road. The Hornets are their last remaining road game against a playoff team. The do have home games against those same Hornets, Houston, Utah, Miami and Phoenix, but the Mavs have played fairly well at home. 7-2 is a pretty safe prediction for them, but even with such a strong finish I think they’ll still end up a game behind the Jazz for the 8th spot.

9. Phoenix 45-37 – With Dallas’ favorable remaining schedule, Phoenix may as well be happy with a role as a spoiler, because this team is lottery bound as they fade five games out of the playoff hunt by season’s end.

Ocotillo
03-30-2009, 08:07 PM
Nice post Chopper.....

Brazil
03-30-2009, 08:26 PM
Nice reading thanx !!!

spursfaninla
03-30-2009, 09:32 PM
Well, according to this we would play UTAH in the 1st round, and likely then Denver in the second, while LA would play dallas and then New Orleans.

I think those are good teams for LA to have to play. NO could be peaking by then if they get chandler back, and dallas will play hard.

Utah is tough, and I would rather we played portland. But considering we have home court, that is fine.

Denver does not bother me, even if we end up the 3d seed and they have home court.

This would be the toughest championship we ever got, without HC in the final 3 rounds!

duncan228
03-30-2009, 09:57 PM
Thinking About a Hornets-Spurs 1st Round (http://www.atthehive.com/2009/3/30/815597/thinking-about-a-hornets-s)
by atthehive

Last night's win was huge, not only because it was a win, but also because it was a potential first round preview. What can we take away from it?

* Byron Scott knows how to guard Tim Duncan. In the last 10 Duncan-Hornets matchups (starting with last year's playoffs), Duncan shoots 42% from the floor. If you remove a 10-13 domination in Game 3 of the playoffs, he's shot 38% over that span. Considering that this is perhaps the greatest PF in NBA history we're talking about, one that shoots 51% from the floor, and one that we typically single cover with the likes of Melvin Ely and Hilton Armstrong... it's pretty impressive. Duncan's rebounding numbers do go up slightly, but a 10% drop in shooting is a 10% drop in shooting.

* Ginobili scares me more than any SG in the league, other than Dwyane Wade. Every time he drives the lane, it's a guaranteed trip to the line. His step back three is slowly climbing back up to the 40% level of the last two years.

* The way to beat the Spurs is the transition game. It's ironic, since they have possibly the best transition D in the league. But CP's game gets so bogged down in the half court that not having running opportunities is brutal.

* Hilton Armstrong is playing the best ball of his life, and we'll need it against the likes of Drew Gooden (who mysteriously stopped getting minutes in the 2nd half). Can you imagine this new version of Hilton off the bench behind Chandler?

* One of the best ways to attack a team that packs the paint is to run motion and have a guy dart in and out of the paint, off screens. Our best screen runner is Mo Pete, but he only got 5 minutes last night. Some of that was because of the successful Antonio Daniels-Chris Paul backcourt, but I'd also like to see him cut into Butler's minutes when Butler struggles from the floor. I mean... that's one of the advantages of having multiple three shooters. One of them struggles, you bring in the other. Force feeding the struggling shooter while leaving the other on the bench all game makes little sense.

* Julian Wright on Ginobili. This has to be the matchup. Even if it forces JuJu to the bench, we need to do this if we draw S.A. in the first round.

* With all the Deron Williams hype, people are forgetting Tony Parker. For my money, Parker's been the better player this year- about as efficient from the floor, a less adept creater but also significantly better with turnover rates. He makes Chris Paul work really hard on the defensive end, and at times you can see the result on the offensive side too. Williams is a tough cover too, but he doesn't make his defender run around nearly as much as Parker.

In many ways, I think I'd rather the Hornets face San Antonio in the first round over some of the other teams. I don't mean that as disrespect to the Spurs; at this point, they are clearly the superior team. But New Orleans has had a ton of experience facing the Spurs- with this last game, the two teams have played 14 times over the last two seasons. There's no element of surprise, no real need for additional game planning. The Hornets know exactly what they need to do to beat the Spurs. And of course, there's no shame in losing to Tim Duncan. Chris Andersen? Now that would be another story entirely.

timvp
03-30-2009, 10:16 PM
Good post, EHJ :tu

I was going to start a similar thread. I really do think the Spurs can only afford one more loss. Their schedule isn't a cakewalk but it's time to get into playoff mode, buckle down and get the wins. The @CLE game is probably a loss but the Spurs need to take care of business in all the other games.

I gave the Spurs a mulligan for last night's game but they really do need to go 8-1. I think Denver has one more loss in them so 8-1 would be good enough for the second seed. If SA and Denver tie, Denver has the tie-breaker (due to that game Pop rested the Big Three :)).

This might be the first year where I'm not actively rooting for a team to matchup against the Spurs in the first round. They are all just about the equal level of difficulty. That said, avoiding the Hornets and Mavericks would be nice. Those two teams have enough experience against the Spurs that San Antonio's overall experience/cohesiveness advantage won't come into play.

I'm really hoping Pop treats the rest of the season like the playoffs. It's easy to say that seeding doesn't matter because all those teams from 2-8 are about the same level but it's that second round that is the key. I can't imagine the Spurs having enough energy to beat the Lakers if they have to battle back sans HCA in the second round. The first two rounds need to be as easy as possible ... and that means HCA in both rounds.

8-1 or Bust.

spursfaninla
03-30-2009, 10:20 PM
who has the tie breaks between NO and utah? That could very well matter.

Libri
03-30-2009, 10:35 PM
I think the Hornets have the toughest schedule.

Their last 7 games of the season:

Apr 5 vs Utah
Apr 7 at Miami
Apr 8 vs Phoenix
Apr 10 at Dallas
Apr 12 vs Dallas
Apr 13 at Houston
Apr 15 at San Antonio

Mal
03-31-2009, 04:12 AM
wow, very tough schedule. I even think they could go 2-5 or even worse.

AussieFanKurt
03-31-2009, 04:49 AM
very informative read

Bukefal
03-31-2009, 04:55 AM
Great read ed! Spurs 'should' win yes and im confident they will. Cleveland will be tough and hornets again too.

timvp
03-31-2009, 03:45 PM
Hopefully the Spurs start Mission: 8-1 off on the right foot tonight.

Ghazi
03-31-2009, 04:21 PM
I think the Spurs could go 7-2 and still get a 2 seed

I see the Nuggets losing 2 more @ LA and @ PORT

Spurs may be able to rest the final game of the season.

mytespurs
03-31-2009, 04:51 PM
Hopefully the Spurs start Mission: 8-1 off on the right foot tonight.

Agreed! A year or two ago, I would automatically put this in the "W" column for the Spurs but you can't be too sure these days. :)

sananspursfan21
03-31-2009, 05:00 PM
9-0?

mexicanjunior
03-31-2009, 05:04 PM
2T. San Antonio Spurs 55-27 – When you look at the Spurs’ remaining schedule, you could argue that they should be able to go 8-1 in their remaining nine games (4 at home and 5 on the road). The only tough road game is at Cleveland. Homecourt challenges include Utah, Portland and then the Hornets on the last day of the regular season. Every other game should be a check in the win column….note the emphasis on “should”. I predict 7-2 though, as I’m sure the Spurs will manage to give up a game to a scrub team before it’s all said and done. The Spurs have a one game advantage in conference play over Denver at this point but the two are virtually even and it appears they’ll remain deadlocked all the way to the post season. The Spurs won't finish lower than the 3 seed, though, as they and Denver will emerge from the pack over these last few games.

2T. Denver 55-27 – With the way the Nuggets are playing right now, they are poised to end the season on a 7 of 8 game run. Their only tough home game is Utah, and they play Portland and the Lakers on the road. I’m thinking LA will be in coast mode by then, and Denver will take that one making Portland or Utah their last loss of the regular season. For the Spurs sake I hope Denver stumbles more than once, but their schedule is probably the only one of the contenders that I’d say is more favorable

Doesn't Denver have the head to head tiebreaker? I thought we gave it up when Pop decided to sit 4/5 of the starting lineup against them before the All-Star break?

Trimble87
03-31-2009, 05:08 PM
very good read. I hope the spurs can avoid the hornets and jazz for at least the first round.

EricB
03-31-2009, 05:31 PM
If the Spurs got Portland or Utah in the first round, they would take either series in 5.

They might sweep Portland.

Amuseddaysleeper
03-31-2009, 05:42 PM
I definitely don't want to see the Mavericks in round 1. Even if they have declined since the 06 and 07 seasons, they are still a bad matchup for SA.

I wouldn't mind seeing Portland in round 1, though like timvp said, there aren't any gimmes in the first round for SA.

I would love to see Portland in rd 1, and then either Houston or Utah in rd 2 and THEN face the Lakers

Creation88
03-31-2009, 05:51 PM
i want the blazers

Xylus
03-31-2009, 05:52 PM
I think the Hornets have the toughest schedule.

Their last 7 games of the season:

Apr 5 vs Utah
Apr 7 at Miami
Apr 8 vs Phoenix
Apr 10 at Dallas
Apr 12 vs Dallas
Apr 13 at Houston
Apr 15 at San Antonio

Wow, that's fucking brutal.

Ed Helicopter Jones
03-31-2009, 08:16 PM
The basketball gods will be smiling on us if New Orleans can finish as the 5 seed. Let them beat up the Lakers in round 2 rather than us. But as others have alluded to, they have a brutal finish to their season. I still sense that they'll edge Portland for the 5 seed....at least I hope so.