usckk
03-15-2005, 09:48 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=neel/050311
I know what time it is. I know you have to be talking tournament or keeping your mouth shut.
So, here it is: The First Annual Basketball Jones NBA Playoffology breakdown.
ON THE BUBBLE
THE EAST
Indiana -- I've had them IN all along, but their March schedule truly is madness (at Cleveland, home-and-home with the surging Nets, the Spurs, the Bulls, the Pistons and Heat). Stephen Jackson's doing some serious fiddling, but without a healthy O'Neal, he's doing it while Rome burns.
Philadelphia -- Now you kids play nice. Don't make me turn the car around. Do you want me to turn the car around? I'll do it. I'll turn the car around right now. Is that what you want?!
New Jersey -- A week ago, the Nets looked like a lock. I was telling everyone who'd listen they were a lock. Then they started shooting the ball like Barney Fife fires a pistol. 37.5 percent against the Heat? 36 percent against the Magic? 32.1 percent against the Spurs? That's enough. Straighten up and fly right, deputies. Don't make me look bad.
New York -- Where I grew up, when a guy was carrying a few more pounds than he ought to be, somebody who knew him, somebody who cared, would say, "Yo, mix in a salad, would ya?" And so it is that I say to the Knicks, "Yo, mix in a road win."
Toronto -- Sorry, not this year, not even with (forgive me, SG) the Vince Carter Effect working in their favor.
Milwaukee -- We keep hearing Michael Redd wants to stay, and we have to keep asking ourselves, why would that be exactly?
THE WEST
Denver -- How long will George Karl's be-tough/respect-the-game routine work? Ask Gary Payton. Ask Kendall Gill.
Despite another MVP-caliber season from KG (22.3/13.8/5.6), the Wolves are on the playoff bubble.
Los Angeles Lakers -- You want to know how this works, Kobe? I'm going to tell you how this works: Get Lamar the damn ball. It will flow from there. It will come back to you tenfold.
Minnesota -- I swear, ugly as they've been, the Timberwolves should just recuse themselves on principle.
THE SWEET SIXTEEN
THE EAST
Miami -- Here's the bad news: theories about his rage and motivation notwithstanding, Shaq's a little less than the player he was in L.A. last year.
Detroit -- I read in Sports Illustrated this week that Ben's hair thing (up or down) is actually his wife's call. So now what I'm wondering is, does she have a system? Does she break out the afro when she thinks he needs a little something extra? And the real question: Can she do anything about Rip's tire-track thing?
Boston -- 6-4 in their last 10, but could easily be 4-6 in their next 10.
Washington -- I know, I know, but check Kwame's rpg in the last five games.
Cleveland -- Where are all the heart-warming, triumph-of-the-will Ilgauskas stories, by the way?
Chicago -- The Bulls ought to wear the original Jordans for the first round.
Orlando -- Boldest coaching move of the season: Johnny Davis launching the Jameer Nelson experiment. Boldest step-up: Jameer making him look good for doing it.
Barney Fife -- Just one Carter-Wade game that feels like a Bird-Wilkins game, that's all I ask out of the first round.
THE WEST
San Antonio -- They're good.
Phoenix -- So much is riding on the Suns. If they make a serious run, fastbreak ball is truly back. If they flame out, we may slide back into the muck.
Seattle -- I think the Sonics are legit, but I also thought Billy Crudup was destined for stardom after "Jesus' Son," so you can't go by me.
Dallas -- Marquis Daniels is the leading candidate for this year's Rolando Blackman Award.
Without Webber, how far can Peja lead the Kings?
Sacramento -- Hello, Peja? You in there?
Houston -- Yao scares the bejeezus out of the Sonics. And he should.
Memphis -- Watch to see who Fratello puts on the floor in the late-going; will it be JWill or Earl? My money's on Earl.
The Tough Guys -- Mostly because 13 of the Lakers' next 18 games are on the road.
CINDERELLAS
Chicago's going to beat somebody in the first round. Bank on it. My record on Bulls predictions is flawless.
And how about Memphis over Phoenix in the West? If the Suns take the one-seed, the Grizz are dead (they can't handle the Spurs), but if the Suns fall to the two, the Grizzlies might have something. I said a couple weeks ago that I thought they were a tough out and nothing more, but the more I think about it, the more a first-round upset seems possible.
They've beaten the Suns twice (once when Nash was hurt and once when he wasn't). They have a decent road record. This is their second, not their first, year in the playoffs, so their guys are going to be just as experienced, and a little less amped, than anyone on the Suns' side. They go nine deep, and are doing what they're doing without Pau Gasol, so they won't get run out of the gym, they pass the ball, they have points who can penetrate and shooters who can shoot, and they play a style and pace the Suns despise. Everybody's talking about how Phoenix might match up with San Antonio in the Western Finals, but the Suns might get waylaid in Memphis long before that.
THE BIG BUST
All I'm saying is, when this playoff thing is over, that BMI stuff isn't going to be so funny down in Florida.
THE ELITE EIGHT
Miami -- Key stat: +6.2 ppg differential this season. They play some D.
Detroit -- The Bulls will handle their pressure, and handle the Pistons on the glass more or less, but there's no way they'll be able to maintain their composure when the courtside PA guy does his "Deeeeeeeeeetroit Baaaaaaaaaaaasketbaaaaaaaaall!" thing.
Cleveland -- I'm not buying this "oooh Cleveland's in trouble" talk. You know what I'm buying? The way the Cavs work the offensive glass (nobody talks about it, but they're second only to Seattle).
Chicago -- 9.1 boards a night, and I still don't think Tyson's anywhere near growing into his body yet.
San Antonio -- Here's a phrase you don't like if you're Pop: "Manu Ginobili missed Wednesday night's game because of nagging hip, groin and shoulder injuries."
Memphis -- Best hot fudge pie I've ever had was at a little joint down a few blocks from the Pyramid in Memphis. Now they play in the FedEx Center or something. Wonder what kind of pie you can get around that joint ...
Seattle -- Wouldn't it be messed up if Walter Ray and the Sonics can't come to terms? Here's one of the best stories of the year (the Sonics' resurgence), and if he walks, it's over almost before it got started.
Dallas -- I like 'em and I've said I think they have a shot, but it's a long one. Usually I think the whole "put the team on your back" thing is bunk, but in this case, if Dirk doesn't have four stone-cold stupendous games, they go home. And worse than that, even if he does, they're still a longshot.
THE FINAL FOUR
Miami -- I underestimated Udonis Haslem this year (and, by extension, both Pat Riley and Stan Van Gundy). My apologies all around.
Detroit -- By the way, I've filed for the rights to the domain name: freecarlosarroyo.com, so don't even think about it.
San Antonio -- After resting him throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Spurs announce Tim Duncan will play in the conference finals.
Seattle -- If I'm wrong about the Memphis upset of Phoenix I won't be too disappointed. The Sonics and Suns would probably be the most entertaining (almost fifty 3s a game between the two teams) match-up of the playoffs.
THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
San Antonio over Detroit -- If it goes this way, they Spurs are dueling the Patriots as the most successful franchise in professional sports, and they're doing it pretty much the same way, with team ball, selflessness, solid citizens, and a blend of superstar and complementary talent that echoes the old Knicks and Packers teams. If it goes this way, you can feel good about it.
I know what time it is. I know you have to be talking tournament or keeping your mouth shut.
So, here it is: The First Annual Basketball Jones NBA Playoffology breakdown.
ON THE BUBBLE
THE EAST
Indiana -- I've had them IN all along, but their March schedule truly is madness (at Cleveland, home-and-home with the surging Nets, the Spurs, the Bulls, the Pistons and Heat). Stephen Jackson's doing some serious fiddling, but without a healthy O'Neal, he's doing it while Rome burns.
Philadelphia -- Now you kids play nice. Don't make me turn the car around. Do you want me to turn the car around? I'll do it. I'll turn the car around right now. Is that what you want?!
New Jersey -- A week ago, the Nets looked like a lock. I was telling everyone who'd listen they were a lock. Then they started shooting the ball like Barney Fife fires a pistol. 37.5 percent against the Heat? 36 percent against the Magic? 32.1 percent against the Spurs? That's enough. Straighten up and fly right, deputies. Don't make me look bad.
New York -- Where I grew up, when a guy was carrying a few more pounds than he ought to be, somebody who knew him, somebody who cared, would say, "Yo, mix in a salad, would ya?" And so it is that I say to the Knicks, "Yo, mix in a road win."
Toronto -- Sorry, not this year, not even with (forgive me, SG) the Vince Carter Effect working in their favor.
Milwaukee -- We keep hearing Michael Redd wants to stay, and we have to keep asking ourselves, why would that be exactly?
THE WEST
Denver -- How long will George Karl's be-tough/respect-the-game routine work? Ask Gary Payton. Ask Kendall Gill.
Despite another MVP-caliber season from KG (22.3/13.8/5.6), the Wolves are on the playoff bubble.
Los Angeles Lakers -- You want to know how this works, Kobe? I'm going to tell you how this works: Get Lamar the damn ball. It will flow from there. It will come back to you tenfold.
Minnesota -- I swear, ugly as they've been, the Timberwolves should just recuse themselves on principle.
THE SWEET SIXTEEN
THE EAST
Miami -- Here's the bad news: theories about his rage and motivation notwithstanding, Shaq's a little less than the player he was in L.A. last year.
Detroit -- I read in Sports Illustrated this week that Ben's hair thing (up or down) is actually his wife's call. So now what I'm wondering is, does she have a system? Does she break out the afro when she thinks he needs a little something extra? And the real question: Can she do anything about Rip's tire-track thing?
Boston -- 6-4 in their last 10, but could easily be 4-6 in their next 10.
Washington -- I know, I know, but check Kwame's rpg in the last five games.
Cleveland -- Where are all the heart-warming, triumph-of-the-will Ilgauskas stories, by the way?
Chicago -- The Bulls ought to wear the original Jordans for the first round.
Orlando -- Boldest coaching move of the season: Johnny Davis launching the Jameer Nelson experiment. Boldest step-up: Jameer making him look good for doing it.
Barney Fife -- Just one Carter-Wade game that feels like a Bird-Wilkins game, that's all I ask out of the first round.
THE WEST
San Antonio -- They're good.
Phoenix -- So much is riding on the Suns. If they make a serious run, fastbreak ball is truly back. If they flame out, we may slide back into the muck.
Seattle -- I think the Sonics are legit, but I also thought Billy Crudup was destined for stardom after "Jesus' Son," so you can't go by me.
Dallas -- Marquis Daniels is the leading candidate for this year's Rolando Blackman Award.
Without Webber, how far can Peja lead the Kings?
Sacramento -- Hello, Peja? You in there?
Houston -- Yao scares the bejeezus out of the Sonics. And he should.
Memphis -- Watch to see who Fratello puts on the floor in the late-going; will it be JWill or Earl? My money's on Earl.
The Tough Guys -- Mostly because 13 of the Lakers' next 18 games are on the road.
CINDERELLAS
Chicago's going to beat somebody in the first round. Bank on it. My record on Bulls predictions is flawless.
And how about Memphis over Phoenix in the West? If the Suns take the one-seed, the Grizz are dead (they can't handle the Spurs), but if the Suns fall to the two, the Grizzlies might have something. I said a couple weeks ago that I thought they were a tough out and nothing more, but the more I think about it, the more a first-round upset seems possible.
They've beaten the Suns twice (once when Nash was hurt and once when he wasn't). They have a decent road record. This is their second, not their first, year in the playoffs, so their guys are going to be just as experienced, and a little less amped, than anyone on the Suns' side. They go nine deep, and are doing what they're doing without Pau Gasol, so they won't get run out of the gym, they pass the ball, they have points who can penetrate and shooters who can shoot, and they play a style and pace the Suns despise. Everybody's talking about how Phoenix might match up with San Antonio in the Western Finals, but the Suns might get waylaid in Memphis long before that.
THE BIG BUST
All I'm saying is, when this playoff thing is over, that BMI stuff isn't going to be so funny down in Florida.
THE ELITE EIGHT
Miami -- Key stat: +6.2 ppg differential this season. They play some D.
Detroit -- The Bulls will handle their pressure, and handle the Pistons on the glass more or less, but there's no way they'll be able to maintain their composure when the courtside PA guy does his "Deeeeeeeeeetroit Baaaaaaaaaaaasketbaaaaaaaaall!" thing.
Cleveland -- I'm not buying this "oooh Cleveland's in trouble" talk. You know what I'm buying? The way the Cavs work the offensive glass (nobody talks about it, but they're second only to Seattle).
Chicago -- 9.1 boards a night, and I still don't think Tyson's anywhere near growing into his body yet.
San Antonio -- Here's a phrase you don't like if you're Pop: "Manu Ginobili missed Wednesday night's game because of nagging hip, groin and shoulder injuries."
Memphis -- Best hot fudge pie I've ever had was at a little joint down a few blocks from the Pyramid in Memphis. Now they play in the FedEx Center or something. Wonder what kind of pie you can get around that joint ...
Seattle -- Wouldn't it be messed up if Walter Ray and the Sonics can't come to terms? Here's one of the best stories of the year (the Sonics' resurgence), and if he walks, it's over almost before it got started.
Dallas -- I like 'em and I've said I think they have a shot, but it's a long one. Usually I think the whole "put the team on your back" thing is bunk, but in this case, if Dirk doesn't have four stone-cold stupendous games, they go home. And worse than that, even if he does, they're still a longshot.
THE FINAL FOUR
Miami -- I underestimated Udonis Haslem this year (and, by extension, both Pat Riley and Stan Van Gundy). My apologies all around.
Detroit -- By the way, I've filed for the rights to the domain name: freecarlosarroyo.com, so don't even think about it.
San Antonio -- After resting him throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Spurs announce Tim Duncan will play in the conference finals.
Seattle -- If I'm wrong about the Memphis upset of Phoenix I won't be too disappointed. The Sonics and Suns would probably be the most entertaining (almost fifty 3s a game between the two teams) match-up of the playoffs.
THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
San Antonio over Detroit -- If it goes this way, they Spurs are dueling the Patriots as the most successful franchise in professional sports, and they're doing it pretty much the same way, with team ball, selflessness, solid citizens, and a blend of superstar and complementary talent that echoes the old Knicks and Packers teams. If it goes this way, you can feel good about it.