the crimson blur
04-01-2009, 08:52 AM
Sup guys, first post. I have been lurking here for years mostly for news and game thoughts but never registered.
Yesterday's loss to the OKC Thunder made just about every fan, including me, wonder what the hell Pop was thinking. The rotations are out of whack and they need to be fixed quickly. But it is easy to complain without proposing a solution. So I put on my coach's hat and gave it a go. I made my own rotation. Here it is:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pO29H8sOm48_m_hmyqcBUBQ (scroll left/right and up/down to see the entire spreadsheet)
Now, a rotation is never particularly consistent; it varies based on a few factors. One is how competitive the game is. I made this rotation on the assumption that it is a competitive playoff game. Not a game 7 nailbiter that requires TP to play 44 minutes, but also not a blowout where the big 3 sit the second half. Another factor is matchups and their corresponding adjustments. For example, we may want to use Bruce more against the Lakers to slow down Kobe (though this has not been the case thus far this season). But, matchups go beyond the scope of what we can determine heading into the playoffs, and realistically, they don't change either the rotation or the player's overall minutes that much. So read this rotation knowing it could change depending on other variables. It isn't supposed to be what I want the Spurs to run every game, regardless of circumstance, but rather a basic rotation which can be worked around depending on the situation. Basically, the average minutes for each player, what roles I would like to see them in, the lineups I want to see on the floor consistently, etc.
Now that thats out of the way, onto the meat of it all. Here are some decisions I made.
This team only has room for one defensive stopper.
Eventually Pop is going to have to choose between Ime Udoka, Bruce Bowen, and George Hill. In a competitive playoff game, it just doesn't make sense that their collective minutes (about 15 min) should be split 3 ways. Though I love all 3 of them, this lineup needs shortening. You can't play 12 guys in a playoff game unless you want to sacrifice your starters some minutes. I ended up choosing Bruce Bowen as the stopper, but I can see the argument for any of the 3. Bruce is the best passer of the three, knows the system the best, and has valuable playoff experience. Hill might be the best defender of the 3, but unlike Bruce, he can't guard a very versatile range of players; Hill is mostly stuck on 1s and 2s because of his height. Udoka is by far the worst defender of the 3, but is the best rebounder and offensive weapon. But, in my opinion, Udoka's shots are often out of the flow of the offense and therefore counterproductive. 3 ball fakes at the 3 point line into a 2 pointer aren't going to work against good teams. Bruce is a known quantity, and with a fading championship window, I don't think its time to experiment with a rookie and a guy who just cracked the rotation a month ago. But again, you could replace Bruce's name with either Hill or Udoka and I'd understand.
Manu is the backup PG
This has been covered in a ton of other posts so I won't dwell on it. We aren't going anywhere in the postseason with Vaughn as our backup point. Vaughn is a poor defender, has literally no offensive game (the Thunder barely guarded him), and is a vastly overrated passer. 13 mins and 1 ast? Yeah, he runs the offense, but with him on the floor, you get the Rondo complex but worse; when the ball isn't in his hands, the defense just forgets him. He missed both of his shots (WIDE OPEN) and made 3 stupid fouls in limited time. So much for veteran savvy...*sigh* Its not like JV was ever the primary ballhandler in the other playoff runs...Manu did all the heavy lifting.
Finley needs to get major minutes
No matter what we say of him, Finley must and will get major minutes. Pop isn't giving Fin minutes because he has a mancrush, it is because it is functionally impossible to have it any other way. Try to make a rotation yourself without giving Fin more than 20 minutes. What ends up happening is putting Manu at the SF, forcing us to go super small (you want Manu guarding SFs in this league for extended periods of time? Ron Artest, Lebron James, and Paul Pierce?), or giving the defensive stopper of your choice (Bruce in my case) some of his minutes. But all the defensive stoppers are a liability on offense in some way, and with the way the Spurs offense goes, you really need to have a shooter, preferably 2 or even 3, on the floor at all times. Fin's a sharpshooter, so he is necessary. There is nothing we can do about it now; if we wanted a better SF we should have gotten one when we had the chance. Fin is the best we have. Trust me, it was hard enough to get him down to 27 mins.
Rebound rate needs to be managed
Even a casual observation of the OKC match could tell you that the rebounding battle was very, very odd. At times, the Spurs were doing well on the boards, and at others, they were getting manhandled. The manhandling generally came in the form of a rebound slipping out of Bonner's hands despite some great hustle. But no hustle can change a person's wingspan. The fact of the matter is that those same rebounds would have been grabbed by Drew as long as he gave the same hustle. So, with that in mind, we have to think of our rebounding options. Kurt, Drew, and TD are all very solid to great rebounders. Manu is one of the best rebounders of his position (ranked 3rd in the league). I set up the rotation so that we have a few good rebounders in the game at all times. There is nothing more frustrating than when the opponent gets a second chance point, and those have been killing us lately. And, if you pay attention, you'll notice that they almost never come when TD is on the floor. So I made the rotation so that our best rebounders are on the floor when TD isn't.
Specific player combinations
You may have noticed that the "courttime with" section has an odd distribution. The way I set the rotation up, I kept in mind certain player combinations that work better than others. If nothing else could be gained from the last few disastrous games, at least we now know that Manu and Gooden work spectacularly with one another. Manu never gives a player the ball without purpose, thus eliminating Gooden's weakness as a poor passer. If Manu gives you a pass, he probably doesn't want it back, and well, Gooden likely wouldn't give it back anyways, so it all works out. And, Manu's long strides to the basket often cause gapes in the defense, which allows Gooden to come and tip a missed shot in.
There are other, more obvious combos also considered when creating my rotation, which you can see in the "courttime with" section.
Conclusion
I recommend you guys try and make rotations of your own and compare them with mine. It really makes you understand more about the team and what Pop has been trying to do the last few weeks. By making this sample rotation, I understand why Pop has had so much trouble recently. What do you think of my rotation, and what can be improved upon?
Drive for five baby. :flag:
Yesterday's loss to the OKC Thunder made just about every fan, including me, wonder what the hell Pop was thinking. The rotations are out of whack and they need to be fixed quickly. But it is easy to complain without proposing a solution. So I put on my coach's hat and gave it a go. I made my own rotation. Here it is:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pO29H8sOm48_m_hmyqcBUBQ (scroll left/right and up/down to see the entire spreadsheet)
Now, a rotation is never particularly consistent; it varies based on a few factors. One is how competitive the game is. I made this rotation on the assumption that it is a competitive playoff game. Not a game 7 nailbiter that requires TP to play 44 minutes, but also not a blowout where the big 3 sit the second half. Another factor is matchups and their corresponding adjustments. For example, we may want to use Bruce more against the Lakers to slow down Kobe (though this has not been the case thus far this season). But, matchups go beyond the scope of what we can determine heading into the playoffs, and realistically, they don't change either the rotation or the player's overall minutes that much. So read this rotation knowing it could change depending on other variables. It isn't supposed to be what I want the Spurs to run every game, regardless of circumstance, but rather a basic rotation which can be worked around depending on the situation. Basically, the average minutes for each player, what roles I would like to see them in, the lineups I want to see on the floor consistently, etc.
Now that thats out of the way, onto the meat of it all. Here are some decisions I made.
This team only has room for one defensive stopper.
Eventually Pop is going to have to choose between Ime Udoka, Bruce Bowen, and George Hill. In a competitive playoff game, it just doesn't make sense that their collective minutes (about 15 min) should be split 3 ways. Though I love all 3 of them, this lineup needs shortening. You can't play 12 guys in a playoff game unless you want to sacrifice your starters some minutes. I ended up choosing Bruce Bowen as the stopper, but I can see the argument for any of the 3. Bruce is the best passer of the three, knows the system the best, and has valuable playoff experience. Hill might be the best defender of the 3, but unlike Bruce, he can't guard a very versatile range of players; Hill is mostly stuck on 1s and 2s because of his height. Udoka is by far the worst defender of the 3, but is the best rebounder and offensive weapon. But, in my opinion, Udoka's shots are often out of the flow of the offense and therefore counterproductive. 3 ball fakes at the 3 point line into a 2 pointer aren't going to work against good teams. Bruce is a known quantity, and with a fading championship window, I don't think its time to experiment with a rookie and a guy who just cracked the rotation a month ago. But again, you could replace Bruce's name with either Hill or Udoka and I'd understand.
Manu is the backup PG
This has been covered in a ton of other posts so I won't dwell on it. We aren't going anywhere in the postseason with Vaughn as our backup point. Vaughn is a poor defender, has literally no offensive game (the Thunder barely guarded him), and is a vastly overrated passer. 13 mins and 1 ast? Yeah, he runs the offense, but with him on the floor, you get the Rondo complex but worse; when the ball isn't in his hands, the defense just forgets him. He missed both of his shots (WIDE OPEN) and made 3 stupid fouls in limited time. So much for veteran savvy...*sigh* Its not like JV was ever the primary ballhandler in the other playoff runs...Manu did all the heavy lifting.
Finley needs to get major minutes
No matter what we say of him, Finley must and will get major minutes. Pop isn't giving Fin minutes because he has a mancrush, it is because it is functionally impossible to have it any other way. Try to make a rotation yourself without giving Fin more than 20 minutes. What ends up happening is putting Manu at the SF, forcing us to go super small (you want Manu guarding SFs in this league for extended periods of time? Ron Artest, Lebron James, and Paul Pierce?), or giving the defensive stopper of your choice (Bruce in my case) some of his minutes. But all the defensive stoppers are a liability on offense in some way, and with the way the Spurs offense goes, you really need to have a shooter, preferably 2 or even 3, on the floor at all times. Fin's a sharpshooter, so he is necessary. There is nothing we can do about it now; if we wanted a better SF we should have gotten one when we had the chance. Fin is the best we have. Trust me, it was hard enough to get him down to 27 mins.
Rebound rate needs to be managed
Even a casual observation of the OKC match could tell you that the rebounding battle was very, very odd. At times, the Spurs were doing well on the boards, and at others, they were getting manhandled. The manhandling generally came in the form of a rebound slipping out of Bonner's hands despite some great hustle. But no hustle can change a person's wingspan. The fact of the matter is that those same rebounds would have been grabbed by Drew as long as he gave the same hustle. So, with that in mind, we have to think of our rebounding options. Kurt, Drew, and TD are all very solid to great rebounders. Manu is one of the best rebounders of his position (ranked 3rd in the league). I set up the rotation so that we have a few good rebounders in the game at all times. There is nothing more frustrating than when the opponent gets a second chance point, and those have been killing us lately. And, if you pay attention, you'll notice that they almost never come when TD is on the floor. So I made the rotation so that our best rebounders are on the floor when TD isn't.
Specific player combinations
You may have noticed that the "courttime with" section has an odd distribution. The way I set the rotation up, I kept in mind certain player combinations that work better than others. If nothing else could be gained from the last few disastrous games, at least we now know that Manu and Gooden work spectacularly with one another. Manu never gives a player the ball without purpose, thus eliminating Gooden's weakness as a poor passer. If Manu gives you a pass, he probably doesn't want it back, and well, Gooden likely wouldn't give it back anyways, so it all works out. And, Manu's long strides to the basket often cause gapes in the defense, which allows Gooden to come and tip a missed shot in.
There are other, more obvious combos also considered when creating my rotation, which you can see in the "courttime with" section.
Conclusion
I recommend you guys try and make rotations of your own and compare them with mine. It really makes you understand more about the team and what Pop has been trying to do the last few weeks. By making this sample rotation, I understand why Pop has had so much trouble recently. What do you think of my rotation, and what can be improved upon?
Drive for five baby. :flag: