lefty
04-06-2009, 09:25 AM
Boston's odds of repeating as NBA Champions are growing longer each day, with Kevin Garnett's knee injury a huge reason why the Celtics are losing ground in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile out West, Manu Ginobli's bum ankle has the San Antonio Spurs looking shaky heading towards the postseason and the preseason hype surrounding Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets appears to be just that, hype.
At this time during the NBA season I always like to go back and take a look at my notes from throughout the campaign. It gives me a really good sense of the season’s developments you can’t gather from boxscores, betting trends, and power ratings.
What was a seemingly sharp futures play back in October and November can look questionable now. That’s certainly the case with the following four examples of wagers made by a multitude of well-intentioned bettors. With all apologies to those of you who put money in some way, shape, or form on the Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz, or Houston Rockets, these are the NBA futures bets in serious trouble.
(Current odds in parentheses)
Boston Celtics to repeat as NBA champions (+400)
Kevin Garnett’s knee injury puts into jeopardy the Celtics’ chance of winning the championship, if that wasn’t already the case before KG first went down back in February.
The chickens have come home to roost after Danny Ainge didn’t replace the retired P.J. Brown or the departed James Posey, and now Boston’s lack of depth is coming back to haunt them. The Celts are 31-17 SU since they roared out to their 27-2 start, when Boston looked like the team that manhandled the Los Angeles Lakers in last season’s Finals.
Beantown’s petal-to-the-metal attitude has it burnt out; and it’s unclear if they’ll be able to get back to the Finals without homecourt advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. Bettors should take note the Celtics didn’t win a game on the road in last year’s postseason until the East Finals against the Detroit Pistons.
Anybody but LeBron James to win MVP
The fact King James is currently in the range of -600 tells you everything you need to know about the state of futures wagers on this season’s NBA Most Valuable Player award.
James is simply too dominant, with averages of 28.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists heading into this week’s action, not to mention the kicker that any sharp bettor uses to focus their wager on this bet: The Cleveland Cavaliers currently have the best record in the league.
LeBron is clearly the most talented player in the Association, and when you combine that with Kobe Bryant’s (+350) relative coasting down the stretch and Dwyane Wade’s (+200) status as a member of the Miami Heat, the case for James becomes crystal clear.
San Antonio Spurs to win Western Conference (+500)
The thinking in some circles after last season was if Manu Ginobili was healthy, the Spurs would have defeated the Lakers in the West Finals. That might be true – but that was last year.
Ginobili is banged-up with his bad ankle again, and Tim Duncan isn’t getting any younger. This says nothing about Los Angeles being the class of the Western Conference, although San Antonio did manage to squeak out a one-point win on a four-point play from Roger Mason when the teams met in Texas back in December.
Drew Gooden is a nice pickup, but the Spurs’ supporting cast is lacking to the extreme. I love Matt Bonner, but he shouldn’t be getting minutes on a championship contender, while Bruce Bowen is a shell of his former self.
New Orleans Hornets to win anything (+1800 to win West; +3500 to win title)
Remember all the preseason hype (and money) on the Hornets? New Orleans was the trendy pick among wise guys after last season’s boon in the Big Easy and the summer acquisition of Posey. Now a ton of bettors are on the hook after the Hornets’ predicted ascendancy never materialized.
Was New Orleans overvalued all along? The Hornets only made it to the conference semis last season, and that was in a year when Ginobili played hurt and Andrew Bynum missed the playoffs. It hasn’t helped that Tyson Chandler got injured/was almost traded/took the year off, and Peja Stojakovic has clearly taken a step back due (at least partially) to a nagging back injury.
As great as Chris Paul is, he’s still a point guard who needs those around him to put the ball in the hole and do the bulk of the rebounding. David West is a solid scorer, but he’s below average on the glass, which was Chandler’s forte before this season’s regression.
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/NBA/10711/boston-celtics-repeat-chances-growing-slimmer.aspx
At this time during the NBA season I always like to go back and take a look at my notes from throughout the campaign. It gives me a really good sense of the season’s developments you can’t gather from boxscores, betting trends, and power ratings.
What was a seemingly sharp futures play back in October and November can look questionable now. That’s certainly the case with the following four examples of wagers made by a multitude of well-intentioned bettors. With all apologies to those of you who put money in some way, shape, or form on the Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz, or Houston Rockets, these are the NBA futures bets in serious trouble.
(Current odds in parentheses)
Boston Celtics to repeat as NBA champions (+400)
Kevin Garnett’s knee injury puts into jeopardy the Celtics’ chance of winning the championship, if that wasn’t already the case before KG first went down back in February.
The chickens have come home to roost after Danny Ainge didn’t replace the retired P.J. Brown or the departed James Posey, and now Boston’s lack of depth is coming back to haunt them. The Celts are 31-17 SU since they roared out to their 27-2 start, when Boston looked like the team that manhandled the Los Angeles Lakers in last season’s Finals.
Beantown’s petal-to-the-metal attitude has it burnt out; and it’s unclear if they’ll be able to get back to the Finals without homecourt advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. Bettors should take note the Celtics didn’t win a game on the road in last year’s postseason until the East Finals against the Detroit Pistons.
Anybody but LeBron James to win MVP
The fact King James is currently in the range of -600 tells you everything you need to know about the state of futures wagers on this season’s NBA Most Valuable Player award.
James is simply too dominant, with averages of 28.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists heading into this week’s action, not to mention the kicker that any sharp bettor uses to focus their wager on this bet: The Cleveland Cavaliers currently have the best record in the league.
LeBron is clearly the most talented player in the Association, and when you combine that with Kobe Bryant’s (+350) relative coasting down the stretch and Dwyane Wade’s (+200) status as a member of the Miami Heat, the case for James becomes crystal clear.
San Antonio Spurs to win Western Conference (+500)
The thinking in some circles after last season was if Manu Ginobili was healthy, the Spurs would have defeated the Lakers in the West Finals. That might be true – but that was last year.
Ginobili is banged-up with his bad ankle again, and Tim Duncan isn’t getting any younger. This says nothing about Los Angeles being the class of the Western Conference, although San Antonio did manage to squeak out a one-point win on a four-point play from Roger Mason when the teams met in Texas back in December.
Drew Gooden is a nice pickup, but the Spurs’ supporting cast is lacking to the extreme. I love Matt Bonner, but he shouldn’t be getting minutes on a championship contender, while Bruce Bowen is a shell of his former self.
New Orleans Hornets to win anything (+1800 to win West; +3500 to win title)
Remember all the preseason hype (and money) on the Hornets? New Orleans was the trendy pick among wise guys after last season’s boon in the Big Easy and the summer acquisition of Posey. Now a ton of bettors are on the hook after the Hornets’ predicted ascendancy never materialized.
Was New Orleans overvalued all along? The Hornets only made it to the conference semis last season, and that was in a year when Ginobili played hurt and Andrew Bynum missed the playoffs. It hasn’t helped that Tyson Chandler got injured/was almost traded/took the year off, and Peja Stojakovic has clearly taken a step back due (at least partially) to a nagging back injury.
As great as Chris Paul is, he’s still a point guard who needs those around him to put the ball in the hole and do the bulk of the rebounding. David West is a solid scorer, but he’s below average on the glass, which was Chandler’s forte before this season’s regression.
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/NBA/10711/boston-celtics-repeat-chances-growing-slimmer.aspx